Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2020

Tuesday March 24th's pick was...

5.00 Clonmel : Frontal Assault @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, pushed along briefly 7f out, improved to dispute lead 3f out, ridden entering straight, headed 2f out, dropped to moderate 5th 1f out, no impression) Thankfully, I don't need to rely on Irish racing any longer : definitely a failed experiment.

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5 A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Standard to Slow Tapeta worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 4 yr old gelding whose modest career record to date of just 2 wins and 7 places from 24 starts might not make him an obvious candidate, but I'm happy to discard his failure to win any of his 13 attempts on turf to focus on an All-Weather record at 2 wins and 3 places from 11 starts that is further inmproved to 2 wins, 3 further places from 8 here at Newcastle.

A 62.5% overall place strike rate including a 25% win record on one track is certainly of more appeal and all 8 runs were in handicaps for trainer Jim Goldie and they also include of relevance today...

  • 2 wins and 2 further places from 6 over course and distance
  • 2 wins and another place from 5 when sent off as favourite, as seems likely today
  • 2 wins from 3 starts in 12-runner contests
  • and one win from two when ridden by today's jockey, Daniel Tudhope...

...who himself had a brilliant time of it here last year winning 19 of 78 (24.4% SR) races, generating level stakes profits of 23.9pts at Betfair SP, the equivalent of a 30.7% return on stakes invested, from which he was...

  • 13 from 56 (23.2%) for 20.2pts (+36%) in handicaps
  • 3 from 10 (30%) for 2.22pts (+22.2%) over this 5f course and distance
  • and 3 from 6 (50%) for 23.3pts (+388.6%) for trainer Jim Goldie.

That performance for today's trainer was no short term flash in the pan either as today the Goldie/Tudhope combo has 7 winners from 16 her at Newcastle since the start of 2017 with the resultant 43.75% strike rate generating 28.5pts profit at an ROI of 177.9% and this includes..

  • 6/15 (40%) for 16.1pts (+107.1%) in handicaps
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 4.2pts (+70%) over this 5f course and distance (all in handicaps)...

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

2 replies
  1. fingers
    fingers says:

    It was hard to make up ground today and his style of running probably didn’t suit so will watch for better circumstances as Tudhope wasn’t severe on him and maybe needs to drop a few pounds.

    Reply

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