Tag Archive for: John and Thady Gosden

Ombudsman takes International crown at York

/in /by

Ombudsman eventually came out on top in an exciting renewal of the Juddmonte International Stakes at York.

The 7-4 favourite was ridden by William Buick for John and Thady Gosden, with the fellow Godolphin-owned runner Birr Castle sent out to make the running as a rank outsider in the field of six.

The latter horse was afforded an enormous lead and as he rounded the turn for home it looked quite possible that the chasing pack would not catch him, but as he tired, Ombudsman was gaining ground.

He eventually swept through to grab the lead and while Delacroix also made late gains, Ombudsman emerged a three-and-a-half-length winner.

William Buick will the trophy for the Juddmonte International
William Buick will the trophy for the Juddmonte International (Mike Egerton/PA)

Birr Castle was transferred to the Gosdens to make the running at York and John Gosden said: “(Trainer) Andre Fabre said the horse was in top form and ‘I hope he does a good job for you John, I would like you to have the same result as in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood (when the pacemaker won)’!

“I said ‘OK Andre, I will do my best to make sure he goes a nice, even pace’.

“I thought with two furlongs to run Andre had won the race! You don’t often see that, he’s run a huge race to be third.

“I did say to William that if he’d sat four lengths off the pacemaker he’d have won by 10 lengths but there we go.

“What happened was the Japanese jockey was with Rab (Havlin on Birr Castle) but then he kept taking back and let Rab slip the field. Past the two marker, he was still six lengths in front.

“William said when he let him (Ombudsman) go, he absolutely flew and went from second gear to fifth gear in the blink of an eye.”

Ombudsman (right) was a clear-cut winner over Delacroix (middle)
Ombudsman (right) was a clear-cut winner over Delacroix (middle) (Mike Egerton/PA)

Ombudsman had finished a neck behind Delacroix in the Eclipse last time out, but Gosden felt that race was perhaps not run to suit.

He said: “The Eclipse was a muddling race and we’ll leave it at that. Full marks to Delacroix, but in an evenly-run race we were the superior horse today.

“This is a great win but I did think for a moment Andre would be the lucky man.”

The two obvious races for him are the Irish Champion and Ascot for Champions Day

Ombudsman was claiming the second Group One victory of his eight-race career to date, with Gosden’s sights already set on more top-level success.

He added: “He had a little problem as a baby and we never raced him at two and he came along gradually. He’s getting better and better, has trained well and was unbeaten last year. His only defeat this year was in the muddling Eclipse and he’s a proper horse.

“The two obvious races for him are the Irish Champion and Ascot for Champions Day. It will be Sheikh Mohammed’s decision if he stays in training but he is a sportsman.

“William thinks he’ll stay a mile and a half but I think why change things? Were he to go for the Arc, we’d need one of the rare occasions with a fast-ground Arc – which do happen occasionally.”

Slowly does it with smart prospect Nahraan

/in /by

A giant leap with the talented Nahraan is unlikely this season, with connections inclined to take a patient approach with the unbeaten son of Make Believe.

Out of a half-sister to owner Prince Faisal’s recent Prix Maurice de Gheest scorer Sajir, the John and Thady Gosden-trained colt impressed in his first two outings before taking the step up to Listed level in his stride in the Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton.

He did have the option of following in the footsteps of the owner’s illustrious Mishriff in Deauville’s Prix Guillaume d’Ornano or York’s showpiece Juddmonte Stakes and while a trip to France was always favoured from those two, the Nahraan team have decided to keep their powder dry for the time being.

ParisLongchamp’s Prix du Prince d’Orange on September 14 – a race the Clarehaven team won with Ombudsman 12 months ago – could prove a suitable alternative, although Prince Faisal’s racing adviser Ted Voute stressed there will be no rush with the exciting prospect.

“There was no rain forecast at Deauville and John just felt he’s unbeaten so far, why risk him,” said Voute.

“It’s a shame we couldn’t go for the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano with Charlie Appleby not running Ruling Court, the last chance to run against his own age and sex for decent prize-money.

“Oisin (Murphy) suggested the Prix du Prince d’Orange could be a nice alternative, but I haven’t spoken to John to see what he is thinking.

“He won’t be jumping up far and we won’t be doing something silly. We’re happy to take a patient approach and if that boils over into a four-year-old career before he tackles the big targets, then so be it.”

Prince Faisal also has a two-year-old on the rise housed with the Gosdens, with Frankel colt Oxagon holding plenty of significant entries for the latter stages of the season.

Not disgraced in a hot Newmarket maiden on debut, he then bolted up with a degree of ease when an eight-length scorer at Sandown, with Voute intrigued to see where his training team will head next.

“He’s got entries in all the right races, but John and Thady will decide where they want to go,” added Voute.

“In real terms we did have an apprentice on claiming in a class four last time, but he won like a good horse and his time was good and the style in which he did it was very good.

“We’ve got to keep our feet on the ground at this stage, but John and Thady may be showing their hand a little bit with the entries which suggests they see something they like, so it will be exciting to see which race they choose.”

Morris Dancer shows off winning moves at Salisbury

/in /by

William Buick teamed up with John and Thady Gosden to ride a Listed race double at Salisbury through Morris Dancer and Miss Justice.

The victory of Morris Dancer in the three-runner British Stallion Studs EBF Stonehenge Stakes was more expected, but nevertheless he was sent off a 11-10 chance with A Bit Of Spirit the 5-6 favourite.

Morris Dancer had pushed Zavateri close at Goodwood in the Vintage Stakes and back down in grade had little trouble in winning by four lengths.

Buick said: “It was a quick turnaround from Goodwood where he had shown signs of inexperience.

“The way he jumped from the stalls that day, we were too far behind but he still ran a huge race.

“It’s lovely to see him back it up here today and I was really happy with what he did, he’s improving with all his racing.

“He’s learning on the job but is very straightforward, you can place him anywhere and I do think he’s improving.

“We wanted a tow into the race, it was a fair run race and you can take a bit out of it, everyone had their shot.

“I don’t think he’d mind a bit of juice in the ground but he gets the job done. He stayed a mile but I think he’d also be happy back at seven furlongs.”

Miss Justice’s win in the British Stallion Studs EBF Upavon Fillies’ Stakes was a bit more of a surprise as she had been busy on the all-weather and looked to have a bit to find on the figures but she was still only an 11-2 chance.

The four-year-old had to survive being caught badly short of room before the turn for home and the persistent challenge of Ralph Beckett’s Revoir but battled back to win by a head.

“She’s been a filly we’ve always liked and has a brilliant pedigree, being by Justify and out of a sister to Timepiece,” Thady Gosden told Racing TV.

“She’s been a bit unlucky this year but won well at Southwell last time out, albeit she was back in trip today.

“She got badly cut up out in the country but the jockey seemed more annoyed than her!

“It’s fantastic for her owners to win this today and we’ll just enjoy that.”

Publish schedule will follow some classy names

/in /by

Publish will follow in the footsteps of some illustrious names when he returns to Sandown for the Betmgm Solario Stakes later this month.

John and Thady Gosden’s son of Kingman is already well accustomed to the Esher track having run there in both of his starts to date, winning impressively last time out when getting the better of Charlie Appleby’s Catullus.

As short as 10-1 with Ladbrokes and Coral for next year’s 2000 Guineas, the exciting colt will now get the chance to not only emulate his father, but also Clarehaven stablemate Field Of Gold who won the Group Three event in the Juddmonte silks 12 months ago.

“He’s a lovely colt and a horse that we like a lot,” said Barry Mahon, European racing manager for owners Juddmonte.

“He will probably follow a route similar to Field Of Gold and go back to Sandown for the Solario Stakes on his next start.

“It should suit him going back to Sandown, John and Thady have used that route for some nice horses and obviously Kingman and Field Of Gold are two who have won it. Now he’s had his two runs I think we will stick to that plan.

“James Doyle was very complimentary of him and the only thing he did say was the ground was on the soft side that day and he would appreciate better ground, which is something we’ll bear in mind going forward. But he’s very much a nice colt.”

Trawlerman comes of age with Gold Cup haul

/in /by

It is not a common occurrence for a horse to start winning Gold Cups at seven – Yeats had two triumphs on his CV by the time he added a third in his seven-year-old season, Drums Taps was defending his title when he won in 1993, so too was Invershin in 1929.

Perhaps Trawlerman was prevented from an earlier success by the other things he clearly had on his mind as a young horse, namely a one-sided feud with the starting stalls that scuppered his chances more than once.

When that score was settled is unknown, but it is clear that with time, patience and expert handling he has developed into the kind of standing-dish stayer associated with Ascot’s oldest race.

The term ‘dour stayer’ usually enters the racing vocabulary in the wettest part of winter when the ground is hock-deep, but it was on rapid going and under a sweltering sun that Trawlerman managed to call the phrase to mind several months out of season.

The 85-40 favourite under William Buick, John and Thady Gosden’s gelding nipped into an early lead and lolloped along at the head of affairs to gain an advantage that only seemed to widen as the race progressed.

When he swung for home and passed the clanging bell there was evidently no blow that could reach him, and it was with consummate ease that he sauntered home seven lengths ahead to break the track record over the trip and take his place at the head of the staying standings.

“We came here today and William was very clear what he was going to do, he was going to set a good, even pace and gradually press them from Swinley Bottom all the way through,” said John Gosden.

“The pretenders – the Aga Khan horse (Candelari) and the Coolmore and Ballydoyle horse (Illinois) – they’d have to stay two and a half miles properly. And they didn’t stay, we took them for stamina.

“It was the plan, beyond the plan, absolutely the plan – and he carried it off to perfection. We spend months planning this, we don’t just think ‘oh, shall we run at Ascot next week?’.

“It’s months in the making and they come here in top order. He’s one of the most relentless, proper gallopers. Going wire to wire in this takes a bit of doing, as does breaking the track record,

“It gives me enormous pleasure, I love the Cup races and I always have done. I’m inclined to run one more race and then put him away and come back next year.

“That’s more important than anything, we’ve won it once now, let’s see if he can win it again.”

Of Trawlerman’s earlier waywardness and his more mannerly approach as an older horse, Gosden added: “He used to be a hooligan, an absolute hooligan!

“Now even I’d ride him, though I don’t suppose he’d particularly appreciate that.

“He’s a fabulous horse to be around, he’s like his father – incredibly brave. Golden Horn would run through a wall for you and this horse is the same.”

Trawlerman has always been a very good horse, but he has not always been a very good boy – now he is both.

Crimson tide proves unstoppable in Duke of Cambridge

/in /by

Crimson Advocate swooped with some style in the final furlong to secure a second Royal Ascot success, this time in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes.

Winner of the Queen Mary Stakes two years ago when trained by American George Weaver, Crimson Advocate is now with John and Thady Gosden in the colours of Wathnan Racing and came from last to first in the hands of James McDonald.

Fellow Gosden runner and defending champion Running Lion made a bold bid to make all but had no answer as Crimson Advocate (13-2) collared her inside the final furlong and pulled clear of 5-4 favourite Cinderella’s Dream.

John Gosden said: “We knew she would run a big race but I didn’t expect her to go by those three fillies. Let’s face it, Running Lion won it last year and the second and third are Group One fillies.

“I said to James to just get her settled and he did a beautiful job, he has really great hands and even though he hadn’t ridden her before got a wonderful tune out of her.

“At the half-furlong marker I thought Running Lion had it and so did the commentator and then this filly came along with a wet sail – it was impressive for a filly who was a Queen Mary filly not so long ago.

“We gave her a long time off over the winter and worked on settling her and she ran really well in the Snowdrop and then Robert Havlin settled her at Goodwood and she got up and won.

“Full marks to Robert and Thady who have devoted their time to settling her and she’s sat last here and then blown them away. I’m thrilled but this one is not much to do with me.”

Crimson Advocate was cut to 7-1 from 16s for the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket next month, but the team are yet to commit to their next move.

Gosden added: “I haven’t thought too far ahead and I thought she might get placed. But she’s done that well and we’ll have to readjust our sights.”

For New Zealander McDonald it was a fifth success at the Royal meeting having beaten off a bout of flu to ride for the Wathnan Racing team this week.

He said: “You have no idea what a buzz it is to win here, it means so much, and you can see why everyone treats the week so seriously. It’s a very special place and there’s nothing better.

“It was still on the edge last week, I’m not sure what it was, maybe just a bad case of flu, but I would have to have broken a bone not to be here.

“I thought about a furlong out when Will (Buick, on Cinderella’s Dream) didn’t put them away I had a real chance.

“As a competitor, to ride for such strong stables is so nice. Wathnan is a huge team and James (Doyle, who rode Fallen Angel for Wathnan) has some huge decisions and once he’s picked, it’s nice to fill in where I can.”

Burrito proves tasty for favourite-backers on the Knavesmire

/in /by

Burrito looks booked for bigger and better things after taking his record to three wins from four outings at York on Friday.

With £70,000 up for grabs in the Seat Unique Handicap, a competitive field had been gathered. But John and Thady Gosden’s four-year-old stood out both in the racecard and in the paddock beforehand.

James Doyle – on his only ride of the afternoon – overcame a tricky draw to put his partner into contention with two furlongs to run and set about chasing See That Storm, another improving type.

With half a furlong to go Burrito was well on top and the 9-5 favourite went on to win by a length and three-quarters.

The winner holds an entry back at York in next month’s the John Smith’s Cup.

“He had a sticky draw there so we had a bit of work on early, but once we got across to the ones on our inside he did come back nicely enough,” said Doyle.

“The further he went the better today. We’ll see what the guys want to do but there’s an obvious target back here, so I’ll leave that to them.”

Tom Goff, who oversees owner George Strawbridge’s European breeding stock, said: “He’s a fantastic model. He was a bit raw last year when he was gelded at the end of it as he had a high testicle.

“You didn’t need to do it for any other reason, it just had to be done as he’s got a lovely pedigree.

“He didn’t have the ideal draw there and had to bide his time, but he managed to slot in off an adequate gallop and he’s gone through the gears up the straight. He did it really well.

“There’s an obvious race we’ll have to have a look at, but hopefully in the future there’s a stakes race or two we can have a look at.”

Monday Musings: One for the Little Guys

/in /by

Over the years, ARC hasn’t been everyone in racing’s ideal role model for running racecourses, but it’s hard not to applaud its commitment to the Good Friday All Weather Championships, now happily settled at Newcastle from its original home at Lingfield Park, writes Tony Stafford.

The prize money is stupendous for the types of races, and as Ollie Sangster mused after his Tuco Salamanca finished fast into fourth (but would have been second in a couple more strides in his race), “That stopped him winning almost £40k instead of which we got £9k. The win prize of near 80 grand was what you would expect to get for winning a Group 2,” he said.

Tuco Salamanca, who finished full of running under P J Macdonald having been dropped right out, then encountered the interference that is all so frequent on Newcastle’s straight mile. The jockeys can change course up that straight mile from meeting to meeting, although the stands side is usually king.

I started at Newcastle rather than talk about the scintillating display of the Gosdens’ big grey colt Field Of Gold, who sprinted clear having not had the greatest of runs through to win the Craven Stakes in a canter. The O’Brien 2000 Guineas hopes were conspicuous by their absence, but this was exactly what a trial was meant to be – get rid of the wishful-thinkers and leave the Classics to the big boys. Field Of Gold could well be the horse that ends John Gosden’s blank in the first Classic race of the year. If he wins, no doubt son Thady will be taking the credit – “you were rubbish dad, till I came to help you out!” – he might have said when and if it wins.

Having started out almost two decades after Gosden, Aidan O’Brien had won ten of the 27 2,000 Guineas' since his first in 1998. No doubt one or two might be coming across from Ballydoyle, but Twain, who is the shortest price of the Coolmore contingent, will need to be smart.

His credentials are solid. Pedigree-wise he’s by Wootton Bassett, transformed from a smart stallion in France to an elite one in Co Tipperary. His 2025 fee has been increased from €200k to €300k on the back of sensational results from his stock over the past two years and now he’s getting many of Coolmore’s best mares to mate with. Twain is out of a Montjeu mare and is already a Group 1 winner, at Saint-Cloud last autumn, following a six-length debut maiden win at Leopardstown. It seems he’ll be Ryan Moore’s ride.

Ryan is well used to winning races worth the mere trifle of 77 grand, but when the four-year-old filly Heavenly Heather crossed the line first under diminutive Amie Waugh in the Bet MGM  Fillies’ and Mares’ Championship Handicap at Newcastle on Friday, to my mind she was recording one of the biggest surprise results in the history of UK flat racing.

The 200/1 quote wasn’t the only clue. Here was a filly rated a measly 57 taking on a well-tried eight-year-old mare, Aramis Grey, who is on 92, and putting her in her place. It was no wonder that the local stewards felt minded to stick their collective oar in and try to dent the occasion for the winning trainer Tracy Waggott, based over the county border in Spennymoor, Co Durham. Understandably, her explanation, that she didn’t have any idea how the filly improved so much, was accepted and the right outcome.

Heavenly Heather was 17lb “wrong” at the weights but that made no difference as, despite getting a little bit of interference on the way through, she and her locally based rider did not falter.

Amie, although able to ride comfortably at 7st9lb, had honed her skill in point-to-points in the north of England. She won 24, so often having to carry the saddle with its lead back to weigh in with four stone dead weight. No wonder, like all jockeys, she is so strong.

Then she turned amateur on the flat before in 2021, taking out an apprentices’ licence as a 31-year-old and starting with a 5lb claim. She’s getting near to losing her 3lb now. This was her first win of 2025, and it will have set her up for a worry-free year financially. She still helps her father Simon when she can with his team of jumpers, mostly self-owned at Morpeth up the road from Gosforth Park.

Tracy Waggott is the daughter of the well-respected late jumps trainer Norman. He barely had a runner on the flat – the last I think was in 1998 – but Tracy has turned around the stable’s priorities, doing very well training horses on the level and massively improving facilities at their farm.

It’s sad that, because of the way our handicappers think, Heavenly Heather is likely to get a right old tanking in tomorrow’s revised ratings. But in mitigation, apart from a single run when she got unbalanced at Redcar 11 days before the win and her first outing since Jan 2, all her other runs had been at Gosforth Park, three at seven furlongs and once at a mile.

So she was running at home from home, and for all it’s a straight course, as I indicated above, trouble is easily encountered. The ability to handle the track with its uphill finish is paramount. She ran home gamely, but if the handicapper dealing with seven-furlong form takes it as it stands, she’ll be going up to 80 which will be a shame. Why not make it say 70 and give her a chance, as even that would be a test in different circumstances.

*

Now let’s deal with this week’s main event. That Willie Mullins isn’t much good, is he? After his one-two in the Scottish Grand National, Willie's eight runners at Cheltenham last week had to be content with a sprinkling of places, and the much-publicised raid on Peter Savill’s cash at Plumpton yesterday boiled down to a single race. True, he had four shots of winning the day’s best prize and duly clicked with another one-two courtesy of Absurde and Daddy Long Legs. That’s £55k in the locker!

Of course, he likes to make a drama out of it, so next Saturday at Sandown – where he had another dream day last year with one-threes in both the featured bet365 Gold Cup and the Select Hurdle which put £170k into his coffers, enough to flatten Dan Skelton’s claims - he'll bid to get up in the shadows of the seasonal post.

Over the interim, sentiment seems to have been moving towards Skelton, and he will have plenty of runners next Saturday, too. But if Mullins can bring to the table such stars as last year’s bet365 Gold Cup pair Minella Cocooner and Nick Rockett (where do I know that name from?) and, in the Select Hurdle, Impaire Et Passe and Sir Gerhard, no wonder the boys in Warwickshire are on tenterhooks again.

Finally, it was lovely to meet up with Nick Craven in the Weatherbys box at Newmarket where they were sponsoring the opening race on Tuesday and Wednesday. Nick is a man of many talents but if he was responsible for the catering [he wasn't - Ed.], he’s no Gordon Ramsey as his chicken on skewers were tougher than little Amie Waugh.

As to Tattersalls sales, it was on Wednesday that Kia Joorabchian arrived in the box during racing with his new trainer Raphael Freire, a very nice chap relishing the chance of being the man to follow the great Sir Michael Stoute at the local Freemason Lodge yard.

Having already witnessed a 1.4 million gns Acclamation colt being sold to Godolphin on day one, predictably it was Kia’s Amo Racing that swamped that on day two at a breeze-up record 1.75 million gns price for a son of Havana Grey. Big money from big players then, but don’t forget little Amie. Sounds like a Jane Austen heroine!

- TS

Non-handicap juveniles in late turf season

/in /by

Blink and you’ve missed it. Yes, the British summer is coming to an end, and horse racing is soon to be heading into the last two full months of the turf season, writes Dave Renham. In this article my focus is from the start of September to the end of the turf flat season which is about a week into November. I want to concentrate on two-year-old (2yo) turf non-handicaps in the UK during this time frame. Data has been collected from 2015 to 2023 with profits/losses quoted to Industry Starting Price. Betfair SP figures will be quoted if appropriate.

Some of the larger stables send their better 2yos out at this time of the year so the trainer findings should be interesting. However, let's begin with the betting market.

Betting Markets

For this section I have combined ‘joints’ so for example the favourite includes clear favs, joint and co favs, etc. I want to start by looking at the value metric of A/E indices – here are my findings:

 

 

Favourites tend to offer more value than punters realise, but the gap between favourites and second favourites in this juvenile non-handicap context is much bigger than we usually see. Taking such runners across all months over the last nine seasons the A/E index for favs is 0.92 and second favs is 0.88. The gap between the two is more than twice this in the latter months of the sample years, as you can see in the graph (0.94 v 0.84).

Let me compare the returns to SP and the strike rates now:

 

 

Favourites have been winning close to 40% of the time and have been twice as successful as second favourites in terms of strike rate. Losses to SP have seen favourites lose only 6.7% compared with second favourites 17.3%, showing strong correlation to the earlier A/E index chart. To Betfair SP favourites would have lost you only 3.5p for every £1 bet and in three of the nine years they would have made a profit. Once we get to fifth or bigger in the betting the winning chances become very low indeed, and they offer horrendous value.

Sticking with favourites here are some additional stats to share:

1. Favourites starting at less than 1.50 have won 80.2% of the time (77 wins from 96) for a profit of £5.07 (ROI +5.3%).

2. Female favourites have broken even to BSP.

3. There are not many 2yo races that are longer than a mile, but when the distance hits 1-mile ½ furlong or more, favourites have won 76 of their 181 starts (SR 42%) for a small profit to SP to £7.10 (ROI +3.9%). To BSP after commission you would have had another 59p in your pocket on top of that!

4.  Favourites at this time of the year who are unraced or have had just one previous career run have provided the worst value. This group have provided 910 qualifiers of which 323 won (SR 35.5%) and backing all would have seen losses to SP of £117.03 (ROI -12.9%). To BSP losses are still edging to 10%.

5. In Class 1 or 2 races favourites have almost broken even to SP losing just 1p in the £ and turning a small profit to BSP.

 

Position Last Time Out (LTO)

Onto a look at the most recent piece of form based on finishing position.

 

 

Perhaps the takeaway stat is for last time runners-up. They have the strongest figures across the board. In terms of A/E indices, the best value may lie with LTO 2nds, 3rds and 4ths. It looks best to avoid horses that finished fifth or worse LTO and also debutants (the ‘no run’ group). LTO winners have a relatively modest record, too, and don’t look a solid play in the round.

 

Female runners

I want to briefly share some interesting filly (female) data. Earlier it was noted that female horses when favourite have performed well. Now I want to look at these runners as a whole group, and specifically their record when running against their own sex as compared to when running against the ‘boys’. Here are the splits:

 

 

There is a clear pattern here where female runners fare better when racing against their own sex. They have a much-improved strike rate in these races and, more importantly, losses are 16p in the £ better to both Industry SP and Betfair SP.

If we look at mixed sex races in a bit more detail, we can see that the higher percentage of male rivals there are, the harder it becomes for the females. The graph below shows the win strike rate across different percentage bands of male runners:

 

 

Once we hit over 75% of the runners in the race being male, the chance for any female runner becomes very slim in terms of winning. If we now look at the return on investment figures now, we can see that once more than half of the runners are male, females would have lost you a considerable amount of money:

 

 

So, the data is clear when it comes to considering female runners in 2yo non-handicaps on the turf at this time of year: generally stick to races against their own sex, or if considering a wager in a mixed sex race make sure that most runners in the race are female.

 

Trainers

Onto the area of greatest interest to me trainers. Here are the top performing trainers in terms of strike rate – 20 in total. To qualify they must have had at least 100 runners (ordered by win strike rate):

 

 

It is quite surprising to see nine of the twenty with a profit to industry SP, and a further two (Beckett and Varian) hitting a plus to BSP. Charlie Appleby has the best strike rate but has offered punters quite poor value. Saeed bin Suroor stats should be treated with caution as since 2020 he has had only 19 runners.

I thought it would be interesting to compare the records of these trainers with that of their earlier season form, i.e. their 2yo turf non-handicap record between March and August. I have created a table comparing A/E indices and strike rates over the two monthly groupings:

 

 

I should mention average field sizes are notably larger later in the season (9.5 v 8.7) which means we should expect lower strike rates in the Sept-Nov group. However, that factor is the same for all trainers so each individual handler comparison is fair.

Looking at the table, the numbers for two of the trainers have inspired me to do a deeper dive on each. Firstly, the Gosden stable. Their A/E index is much better from September onwards as is their strike rate (despite the bigger fields). Hence, after doing some digging here are strongest stats for the Clarehaven Stables yard:

1. There are three courses that stand out. Firstly Newmarket, despite the quality of 2yos on show at this time of the year. Team Gosden has saddled an impressive 35 winners from 177 runners (SR 19.8%) for a profit of £10.35 (ROI +5.9%) – A/E 1.07. Newbury has provided excellent results, too, returning over 26p in the £ from an impressive 29.6% strike rate (13 from 44). Yarmouth is the third track to mention with 13 wins from 50 (SR 26%) for a profit of £19.46 (ROI +38.9%). The BSP returns have naturally been even better.

2. Both male and female runners from the stable have proved profitable to back blind and their strike rates have been virtually the same at 22.7% and 22.3%.

3. Sticking with gender and looking now at the ‘sex of race’, the Gosden stable has done especially well when their horses stick to same sex races as the table below shows.

 

 

Based on these figures, I would be ideally looking for same sex races if wanting to back a Gosden runner.

4. The team is 9 from 17 in Group 2 races. A small sample, but worth sharing.

 

Onto the second trainer I want to highlight - Ralph Beckett. Let’s share some Autumn 2yo turf non handicap stats:

1. Take note of any Beckett favourite, the stats are eye-watering – 45 wins from just 87 favs (SR 51.7%) for a profit of £35.51 (ROI +40.8%). The A/E index stands at a crazy 1.33.

2. If the yard has sent the 2yo over 200 miles that looks material. There have been 83 such runners of which 29 won (SR 34.9%) for a profit of £18.38 (ROI +22.1%). For the record Beckett is 6 from 10 at Pontefract, and 5 from 11 at York.

3. Female runners from the Beckett barn have been the stars scoring over 21% of the time. In fillies’ only contests they have returned 8.5p in the £ to SP, 20p in the £ to BSP.

4. Take serious note if the money seems to be coming for their runners. Horses that have started at a shorter SP compared to the Early Morning Odds have produced superb figures – 62 winners from 214 runners (SR 29%) for a healthy profit of £83.34 (ROI +38.9%). To BSP this increase to +£114.75 (ROI +53.6%).

 

The latter months of the season can be a challenge for punters especially with the weather becoming less predictable; two-year-old races especially can seem a minefield. However, the findings in this piece should help to point us in the right direction.

- DR