Posts

Stat of the Day, 2nd November 2019

Friday's pick was...

1.20 Wetherby : North Star Oscar @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up, good headway chasing leaders 6th, 2nd going well after 4 out, joined for well held 2nd 3 out, blundered badly 2 out, no chance after)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Ayr:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gold Opera @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5½f on Soft ground worth £9357 to the winner...

Why?...

Very simply, an in-form yard sending out a horse proven under conditions. Sometimes it is that simple and seeing as my usual deep data digging isn't bearing fruit right now, this stripped back approach is worth a try.

Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 36.6% place strike rate and a 20% win strike rate over the past fortnight (11 placers from 30, including 6 winners) and runs this 10 yr old gelding who is already 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 8.91pts (+37.1% ROI) in handicap chases, including of relevance today...

  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 14.32pts (+84.2%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 16.32pts (+108.8%) at odds in the 2/1 to 8/1 range
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 11.7pts (+83.4%) wearing a visor
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 10.62pts (+118%) on Soft ground
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 8.61pts (+123%) here at Ayr
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12pts (+600%) on soft ground here at Ayr...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Gold Opera @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 at 7.00pm on Friday, as the only open book on the race! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

1.40 Uttoxeter : Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG PU at 11/4 (Prominent, driven 14th, soon beaten, pulled up before 2 out)

Tuesday's first pick of the year runs in the...

2.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £19494 to the winner...

Why?

Well, as it's New Year's Eve/Day depending on when/if you're reading this, I'm going to keep it brief as we've all more important things to do!

So, we have an in-form now 4yr old filly who has won four races on the bounce since finishing as a runner up in a grade 3 event in Ireland last year, including winning a Listed event by some 23 lengths at Aintree last time out 24 days ago.

That win took her record for her new trainer to 3 from 3 and today's jockey Brian Hughes was on board for all three rides.

And that new trainer?

...is Keith Dalgleish, whose hurdlers priced at 10/1 and shorter are 9 from 29 (31% SR) for 11.7pts (+40.3% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • on Good ground : 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.57pts (+54.1%)
  • in handicaps : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.95pts (+64%)
  • in December/January : 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.91pts (+140.9%)
  • 3/4 yr olds are 4/10 (40%) for 18.3pts (+183%)
  • 16-45 dslr : 6/15 (40%) for 15.1pts (+100.7%)
  • over this 1m7½f course and distance : 2/7 (28.6%) for 5.82pts (+83.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 3.51pts (+87.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG, as was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Coral & Hills at 7.25pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Blue Point @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/2 (Raced centre, tracked leaders, driven and not quicken 2f out, ridden over 1f out, never pace to challenge)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.05 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £3817 to the winner...  

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a comfortable 3 lengths winner at Carlisle nine days ago when making all and with no real discernible pace in opposition today, could well repeat those tactics. If allowed a soft/uncontested lead, I'd expect him to be difficult to peg back under jockey Callum Rodriguez who rode him to great effect last time out.

Since the start of the 2015 campaign, trainer Keith Dalgleish's LTO winners are 49 from 200 (24.5% SR) for 102pts (+51% ROI) on the Flat, including...

  • in Scotland : 30/97 (30.9%) for 83pts (+85.5%)
  • 2-10 days since last run : 18/58 (31%) for 57.7pts (+99.5%)
  • won by 2-5 lengths LTO : 15/46 (32.6%) for 52.2pts (+113.4%)
  • and over 9-11 furlongs : 12/40 (30%) for 28.6pts (+71.5%)

3lb claimer Callum Rodriguez now rides this one for the second time after that LTO success and comes here in good nick, having won 7 of 23 (30.4% SR) for 27.6pts (+119.8% ROI) in the last fortnight, from which he is 2/5 940%) for 14.64pts (+292.8%) here at Ayr and 2 from 3 ( 66.6%) for 2.16pts (+72%) for Mr Dalgleish.

Overall, Callum's record for the yard is 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 15.78pts (+175.3% ROI) in handicaps, whilst at Ayr he has ridden 6 winners from 33 (18.2% SR) for 37.1pts (+112.3% ROI) since the start of last season and these include...

  • in handicaps : 5/27 (18.5%) for 24.2pts (+89.8%)
  • at Class 5/6 : 6/24 (25%) for 46.06pts (+191.9%)
  • and in Class 5/6 handicaps : 5/20 (25%) for 31.24pts (+156.2%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday with some 11/4 BOG available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Blue Point @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/2 (Raced centre, tracked leaders, driven and not quicken 2f out, ridden over 1f out, never pace to challenge)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.05 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £3817 to the winner...  

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a comfortable 3 lengths winner at Carlisle nine days ago when making all and with no real discernible pace in opposition today, could well repeat those tactics. If allowed a soft/uncontested lead, I'd expect him to be difficult to peg back under jockey Callum Rodriguez who rode him to great effect last time out.

Since the start of the 2015 campaign, trainer Keith Dalgleish's LTO winners are 49 from 200 (24.5% SR) for 102pts (+51% ROI) on the Flat, including...

  • in Scotland : 30/97 (30.9%) for 83pts (+85.5%)
  • 2-10 days since last run : 18/58 (31%) for 57.7pts (+99.5%)
  • won by 2-5 lengths LTO : 15/46 (32.6%) for 52.2pts (+113.4%)
  • and over 9-11 furlongs : 12/40 (30%) for 28.6pts (+71.5%)

3lb claimer Callum Rodriguez now rides this one for the second time after that LTO success and comes here in good nick, having won 7 of 23 (30.4% SR) for 27.6pts (+119.8% ROI) in the last fortnight, from which he is 2/5 940%) for 14.64pts (+292.8%) here at Ayr and 2 from 3 ( 66.6%) for 2.16pts (+72%) for Mr Dalgleish.

Overall, Callum's record for the yard is 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 15.78pts (+175.3% ROI) in handicaps, whilst at Ayr he has ridden 6 winners from 33 (18.2% SR) for 37.1pts (+112.3% ROI) since the start of last season and these include...

  • in handicaps : 5/27 (18.5%) for 24.2pts (+89.8%)
  • at Class 5/6 : 6/24 (25%) for 46.06pts (+191.9%)
  • and in Class 5/6 handicaps : 5/20 (25%) for 31.24pts (+156.2%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday with some 11/4 BOG available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2018

Tuesday's Result :

6.10 Newcastle : Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 In touch, ridden over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong, beaten by 2.5 lengths.

Next up is Wednesday's...

3.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £10.007 to the winner...

Why?

Keith Dalgleish is better known for his prowess with Flat/AW runners, but also does quite well with a smaller string of NH horses and to date, his record with chasers stands at 11 wins from 28 (39.3% SR) for 21pts (+75% ROI) profit, all from male horses! It's a small sample size, but does show that he knows what he's doing and in respect of today's contest, those 28 chasers are...

  • 10/20 (50%) for 27.25pts (+136.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 20.86pts (+160.5%) over trips of 2m to 2m4f
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 3.71pts (+53.1%) at Class 3
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2.35pts (+58.8%) here at Musselburgh

He now runs this dual-purpose 8 yr old gelding, who won 3 of 5 starts over fences in 2016/17, including a 21 lengths success in this race last year before reverting back to the Flat/AW, where he won 2 of 4 ahead of today's return to chasing. So, he effectively comes here on a run of 5 from 9, but it's his 3/5 chasing record that's more relevant here, as it contains...

  • 3/3 when priced shorter than 4-1 & 3/3 in fields of 4-8 runners
  • 2/2 over trips of 2m/2m0.5f & 1/1 here at Musselburgh
  • 1/1 over C&D + 1/1 at Class 3 (Both in this race in 2017)
  • 1/1 in January and 1/1 going right handed (also both here in 2017)

Plus, since 2010, chasers who ran on either the Flat or A/W last time out and either won or lost by less than 15 lengths then won 110 of 720 (15.3% SR) returns to chasing, generating 431.4pts (+59.9% ROI) profit, including...

  • males at 98/653 (15%) for 418.9pts (+64.1%)
  • handicappers at 58/391 (14.8%) for 233.6pts (+59.7%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 19/80 (23.75%) for 250.2pts (+312.8%)
  • and here at Musselburgh : 3/12 (25%) for 2.72pts (+22.7%)

...giving us...... a 1pt win bet on Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2017

Thursday's Result :

1.25 Wincanton : Cucklington @ 11/4 BOG WON at 13/8 Led from 2nd, headed 16th, led again before 4 out, clear before 2 out, held on towards finish to win by a length and a half.

Next up is Friday's...

6.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Handsome Bob @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 5, 2yo A/W Handicap (Nursery) over a mile on Tapeta worth £3,558 to the winner.

A fairly simple, no-frills, back to basics approach today with a 2yr old (obviously!) colt, who seems to like the tapeta well enough, having made the frame on both previous runs on the surface. He wears a visor for the first time today and is effectively a pound well in ahead of his future mark.

I think he has an excellent chance here today, but the reason he caught my eye from a numerical perspective is because...

...trainer Keith Dalgleish + males priced at Evens to 9/1 + A/W handicaps + October to February inclusive = 46/235 (19.% SR) for 38.25pts (+16.3% ROI) since 2011, and of particular relevance today amongst those 235 winter 'cappers...

  • over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs : 28/146 (19.2%) for 71.15pts (+48.7%)
  • at Class 5 : 19/90 (21.1%) for 18.5pts (+20.5%)
  • those beaten by just 1 to 3 lengths LTO are 15/58 (25.9%) for 19.96pts (+34.4%)
  • wearing the applied headgear for the first time : 7/28 (25%) for 13.3pts (+47.6%)
  • in a visor : 5/23 (21.7%) for 7.6pts (+33%)
  • and in a visor less than 3 times : 5/12 (41.7%) for 18.6pts (+155%)

He's drawn 5 of 6 and is likely to travel down the field waiting for a late run, based on past performances and the Geegeez racecard pace and draw information suggests a high draw coming from off the pace is the best place to be.

...and that's the basis for... a 1pt win bet on Handsome Bob @ 3/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Thursday. I've actually managed to grab some 100/30 BOG from SkyBet, so I'd recommend you try that too, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd September 2017

Friday's Result :

4.25 Sandown : Helfire @ 5/1 non-BOG - 2nd at 4/1 : Held up in rear, headway on inside over 2f out, chased leaders inside final furlong, kept on same pace. beaten by three quarters of a length after what I thought was a terrible ride...

Saturday's pick goes in the...

6.00 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Whatsthemessage @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

An in-form 3 yr old filly who has finished 123111 in her last six outings and beat a bunch of male runners in a higher grade on this very track last time out 9 days ago. She just about held on over 1m1f that day, so she should welcome the 100 yards or so respite from this slightly shorter trip, as she bids to improve upon an already excellent Flat record...

...that has seen her win five of ten races to date, including...

  • 4/6 after a break of less than a fortnight
  • 3/5 on good to soft ground
  • 3/4 at Class 4
  • 2/4 over 8 to 9 furlongs
  • and 1/1 here at Hamilton from that run LTO 9 days ago.

Plus, more generally...2015-17 / UK Flat 3yo+ handicaps / trainer Keith Dalgleish's 3 yr olds are 38/189 (20.1% SR) for 88.2pts (+46.7% ROI), from which...

  • those last seen 6-25 days ago are 31/130 (23.9%) for 114pts (+87.7%)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 36/122 (29.5%) for 74.4pts (+61%)
  • in the August-October period : 20/92 (21.7%) for 97.2pts (+105.6%)
  • here at Hamilton : 12/51 (23.5%) for 70.9pts (+139%)
  • LTO winners are 14/35 (40%) for 49.3pts (+140.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Whatsthemessage @ 11/4 BOG, which was offered by a half dozen firms at 6.55pm on Friday: the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Coral. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2017

Thursday's Result :

5.20 Chelmsford : Saved My Bacon @ 6/1 BOG WON at 9/2 Missed break, behind, switched right and headway over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths.

Friday's pick goes in the...

7.05 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Euro Nightmare @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has 3 wins and 3 places from her 7 starts to date and on her only previous visit to Ayr, she was a runner-up beaten by just half a length two classes higher than this contest!

From her 7 runs so far, she is...

  • 3/4 in fields of 1 to 7 runners, 2/3 this year, 2/2 at Class 4
  • 2/2 over 9/10 furlongs and with wins on Good to Soft, Good and Good to Firm, the ground should hold no fears for her.

She actually over this trip in this grade 2 days ago at Ripon and although now 6lbs higher, her jockey is able to account for 5lbs of that rise, so she should still be very competitive.

In UK Flat handicaps / 2011-17 / LTO winners at the same class 1-5 days ago / up 0 - 7 lbs on OR / with at least 1 previous win at the trip = 85/240 (35.4% SR) for 56.6pts (+23.6% ROI), including...

  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 82/203 (40.4%) for 57.3pts (28.2pts)
  • same trip as LTO win : 60/163 (36.8%) for 50.1pts (30.7%)
  • females are 24/60 (40%) for 33.4pts (55.7%)
  • and here at Ayr : 10/20 (50%) for 22pts (110%)

And, as a 3 yr old in a 3yo+ handicap she'll receive a very generous 12lbs weight for age allowance and her trainer, Keith Dalgleish, is an expert at making the most of this "loophole", as his 3 yr olds in 3yo+ handicaps getting WFA in the 2015-17 period are 30/147 (20.4% SR) for 80.5pts (+54.7% ROI), from which...

  • those racing over 5f to 1m3f are 28/133 (21.1%) for 84.7pts (63.7%)
  • those who ran in the last 25 days are 26/114 (22.8%) for 91.8pts (80.6%)
  • at odds of 5/2 to 8/1  : 22/77 (28.6%) for 54.7pts (71.1%)
  • on Good ground : 14/52 (26.9%) for 97.1pts (186.8%)
  • LTO winners are 10/29 (34.9%) for 34.3pts (118.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Euro Nightmare7/2 BOG which was available from both Bet365, BetVictor, SkyBet & Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.05 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th May 2017

Thursday's Result :

5.05 Warwick : Bronco Billy @ 5/2 BOG (15/8 after a 25p R4) WON at 10/11 In rear in 3rd and well behind, headway to take 2nd 7 out, led before 4 out, clear from 3 out, won easily by 15 lengths.

Friday's pick goes in the...

6.40 Musselburgh...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sebastians Wish10/3 BOG

Why?

Here we have a 4yr old gelding who was 0 from 9 at the turn of the year, but since a switch to Keith Dalgleish's yard is now 2 from 2 in 2017! The latest of those wins came here 22 days ago, here at Musselburgh over 1m6f, when ridden by today's jockey, Joe Fanning, for the first time.

Joe, for his part, rides Musselburgh well as exemplified by his 76 winners from 391 (19.4% SR) since 2009 and although the level stakes profits seem modest at 25.4pts, an ROI of 6.5% from blindly backing a jockey with almost 400 rides at one track is actually pretty good.

As for the trainer, Keith Dalgleish, he also has a decent record here with 44 winners from 307 (14.3% SR) since the start of 2013 generating profits of 75.6pts at a healthy ROI of 24.6%, including of note/relevance today...

  • those who last ran 16-25 days ago : 14/83 (16.9%) for 97.9pts (+118%)
  • LTO winners are 13/35 (37.1%) for 41.1pts (+117.3%)
  • and at 1m 4.5f : 7/22 (31.8%) for 30pts (+136.5%)

And finally, back to the horse,Sebastians Wish , he's also of note on his own accord, as he scores well on the Geegeez Shortlist, with a green rating for going, class and course with an amber score for distance. In numerical terms, this means he's won on good to firm ground already, both his wins this year have been at today's Class 6 and he's 1 from 1 here at Musselburgh.

As for his amber rating for distance, he has no wins at today's 1m4.4f trip, but does have wins at both 1m4f and 1m6f, so the trip is definitely "gettable" for him and also don't forget two other bits of data from earlier : he's 2 from 2 for his new trainer and 1 from 1 under today's jockey...

...but for now...a 1pt win bet on Sebastians Wish10/3 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Thursday, but those able to grab the 7/2 BOG offered by Bet365 should do so! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

4.30 Lingfield : Make Music @ 13/2 BOG (5.2/1 after R4) WON at 11/4 Made most, ridden over 1f out, headed, rallied and ran on to win gamely by a neck.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

War Department10/3 BOG

Why?

A 4 yr old gelding who was a winner here over course and distance by a length and a quarter having been eased down by today's jockey with seemingly more to give.

Trainer Keith Dalgleish's A/W handicappers priced at 12/1 and shorter are 77/469 (17.7% SR) for 48.3pts (+10.8% ROI) since 2011, of which...

  • males are 65/356 (18.3%) for 35.5pts (+10%)
  • those racing over 7f ar 20/97 (20.6%) for 52.3pts (+53.9%$)
  • and males over 7f = 19/86 (22.1%) for 5.3pts (+64.4%)

And in addition to the above, Keith's very good at getting LTO winners to win again with those priced shorter than 12/1 winning 39 of 150 (26% SR) follow-up races for profits of 46.1pts (+30.75% ROI) since the start of 2015, with those racing over the same course and distance as LTO winning 10 of 23 (43.5%) for 26pts (+113.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on War Department 10/3 BOG which was available with Hills and Skybet at 5.50pm on Wednesday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2016

Thursday's Result :

5.35 Yarmouth : Valley of Fire @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 7/2 (Held up, ridden and headway over 2f out, kept on one pace final furlong)

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Clem Fandango at 7/2 BOG

Why?

Prior to the addition of Thursday's results, trainer Keith Dalgleish's runners were 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 9.15pts (+28.6% ROI) profit over the past 14 days and he's employing the services of Phillip Makin to ride this 2 yr old filly today.

I see this as a positive, as Phillip's record here at Ayr stands at 49 winners from 302 rides (16.2% SR) for profits of 143.3pts (+47.5% ROI) since the start of the 2010 campaign and of those 302 rides, he is...

  • 17/82 (20.7%) for 75.5pts (+92%) for Keith Dalgleish
  • 17/39 (24.6%) for 43.7pts (+63.3%) in non-handicaps
  • 15/66 (22.7%) for 45.2pts (+68.4%) on 2 yr olds
  • and 6/38 (15.8%) for 10.44pts (+27.5%) over this 5f trip.

In additon to the above, Clem Fandango is by Elzaam, whose offspring are currently enjoying some success in their first season, winning 16 of 100 races for profits of 47.5pts, all 2 yr olds of course!

These 2 yr olds are 7/28 (25% SR) for 21.66pts (+77.4% ROI) over 5 furlongs and are 6/16 (37.5%) for 46pts after a break of 26 to 60 days with those racing over 5f, 26-60 days since their last run winning 2 of 6 for 6.33pts.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Clem Fandango at 7/2 BOG, which was available from Bet365, BetVictor and Ladbrokes at 5.15pm on Thursday, so to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Ayr.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2016

Tuesday's Result :

7.00 Worcester : Moonday Sun @ 11/4 BOG WON at 13/8 (Held up in rear, not fluent 5th, went 3rd but a bit to do 3 out, soon closed, 2nd next, led last, ridden out to win by almost 3 lengths)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

7.50 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ryan The Giant at 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old gelding carries bottom weight here, receiving a healthy 9lbs weight for age allowance as a 3yo in a 3yo+ handicap and despite being a 15-race maiden, he is in fine form and currently producing the best performances of his career, finishing 3222 in his last 4 outings and never beaten by far, the latest being a defeat by just half a length at Musselburgh a week ago.

He has been knocking on the door over 1m4f and 1m6f and just not seeing it out, so the drop back in trip today could very well be the key to breaking his duck for trainer Keith Dalgleish, whose handicappers are 33/200 (16.5% SR) for 63.1pts (+31.6% ROI) here at Carlisle, from which...

  • those who raced in the last 10 weeks : 33/181 (18.2%) for 82.1pts (+45.4%)
  • males are 24/149 (16.1%) for 52.3pts (+35.1%)
  • in 3yo+ hcps : 20/111 (18%) for 45.2pts (+40.7%)
  • 3 yr olds : 15/64 (23.4%) for 74.5pts (+116.4%)
  • on Good ground : 10/56 (17.9%) for 31pts (+55.3%)
  • 3 yr olds in 3yo+ hcps : 9/29 (31%) for 38.5pts (+132.9%)

Add to this the fact that since the start of the 2012 season in UK Flat handicaps, horses with three consecutive runner-up finishes finally went one better on 69 of 286 occasions (24.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 85 pts at an ROI of 29.7% and of those 286 runners...

  • those who last ran 4-60 days ago : 64/251 (25.5%) for 103pts (+41.1%)
  • over trips shorter than 10f : 58/211 (27.5%) for 105.7pts (+50.1%)
  • males : 48/198 (24.2%) for 76.5pts (+38.6%)
  • at odds of 15/8 to 7/1 : 51/175 (29.1%) for 72.6pts (+41.5%)
  • beaten by less than 1L LTO : 39/125 (31.2%) for 84.2pts (+67.3%)
  • dropping in trip by 0.5f to 3f : 15/63 (23.8%) for 32.3pts (+51.3%)

AND...Males priced at 15/8 to 7/1, dropping down by 0.5f to 3f some 4 to 60 days since their last run are 22/61 (36.1% SR) for 44.2pts (+72.5% ROI)

...which points to...a 1pt win bet on Ryan The Giant at 7/2 BOG, with either Betfair Sports or SkyBet who jointly headed the market at 6.15pm on Tuesday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Carlisle.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 24th February 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.35 Wolverhampton : Gorokai @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up, ridden and headway to chase leading pair over 1f out, stayed on, no impression on winner)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

7.10 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Biff Johnson @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Biff Johnson is an interesting 4 yr old gelding, for whom a change of scenery has been a revelation. From his debut on 12/5/15 to his sixth run, exactly 5 months later on 12/10/15, he was 0 from 6 for trainer Ed Dunlop and I'd suspect a few heads got scratched.

The upshot was a change of yard and new trainer Keith Dalgleish sent him to Chelmsford almost three weeks ago, installed Philip Makin as his jockey, fitted the horse with cheekpieces and recorded a comfortable 4.5 length success! He turned the same partnership back out three days later and they won again, so now after a short 17 day rest, we look for a hat-trick from the Dalgleish/Makin/Biff Johnson/A-W hcp/cheekpiece combo.

All of which means the horse is now 2/3 on the A/W, 2/2 under today's jockey and 2/2 in those cheekpieces. Both wins were in Class 4 company and he now takes a drop down in quality for his track debut.

His quest is aided by his trainer's success in A/W handicaps, as Keith Dalgleish's charges are 67/406 (16.5% SR) to to date and a £20 bet on each would have materialised some £1318 profit at an ROI of 16.2%. In respect of today's race, those 406 runners are ...

  • 57/333 (17.1% SR) for 68.6pts (+20.6% ROI) as males
  • 61/323 (18.9% SR) for 72.9pts (+22.6% ROI) at odds of 5/4 to 12/1
  • 23/140 (16.4% SR) for 26.2pts (+18.7% ROI) at Class 5
  • 9/55 (16.4% SR) for 12.4pts (+22.5% ROI) here at Kempton
  • 9/36 (25% SR) for 19.8pts (+55% ROI) over this 1m4f trip

And today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Biff Johnson at 3/1 BOG, a price currently (6.30pm) available with half a dozen diferent firms, so to find your prefeered bookie, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2015

At 5/2 BOG, Early Bird was towards the sharper end of where I'm comfortable advising at and I was very surprised that after some withdrawals, he was sent off at that very price.

He was fairly sharply away, bagged the rail easily enough and was pretty comfortable in seeing off his challengers one by one, before easing down once the race was won.

It was a really nice ride and the three length margin of victory could have been much, much more, but we wouldn't have got paid any extra! So, it's another 2.5pts into the pot, September's losses are more than covered and we're in front for October.

The weather looks awful, so it's A/W action on Wednesday evening, courtesy of the...

8.55 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

And an 11/4 BOG bet on the 7yr old gelding Circuitous, who is trained by Keith Dalgleish, a man to keep an eye out for in A/W handicaps, quite simply because he's profitable to follow backing blindly!

Now in his fifth year as a trainer, his career record in A/W handicaps stands at 62 winners from 367 runners (16.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 77.8pts at an ROI of 21.2%. These are excellent returns for set and forget betting, but we do like to see if there's a better angle here at Geegeez.

And the way we do that, is by having a closer look at those 367 runners and they fit into today's race, something like this...

  • 59/346 (17.1% SR) for 82.2pts (+23.8% ROI) in races of 6 to 14 runners
  • male runners are 52/301 (17.3% SR) for 73.6pts (+24.4% ROI)
  • at odds of 15/8 to 10/1 : 47/250 (18.8% SR) for 68.4pts (+27.4% ROI)
  • Class 6 races : 31/130 (233.9% SR) for 75.6pts (+58.1% ROI)
  • over 7 furlongs : 18/87 (20.7% SR) for 88.3pts (+101.5% ROI)
  • here at Kempton : 9/52 (17.3% SR) for 15.4pts (+29.5% ROI)

The figures would suggest we'll get a decent run for our money today and I know that many of you like the little composite microsystems from the daily breakdowns, so today's is a small sample size, but Keith Dalgleish's male A/W handicappers priced at 15/8 to 9/1 in fields of 7 to 14 runners over 6 or 7 furlongs at Classes 4 to 6 are 5 wins from 12 (41.7% SR) for 20.25pts (+168.7% ROI) and four of the seven losers made the frame for a place strike rate of 75%.

Circuitous is top rated (OR) here off a mark of 55 and since 2009 in Class 6, 7 furlong contests here at Kempton, male runners aged 4 to 7 who were top rated and priced at 2/1 or bigger running 4 to 60 days after a handicap run last time out went on to win on 21 of 125 occasions (16.8% SR) for profits of 66.3pts (+53.1% ROI) with those rated (OR) in the 53 to 60 bracket winning 14 of 70 (230% SR) for 52.8pts (+75.4% ROI).

Circuitous has only made three prior appearances on this track and has finished third over 6 furlongs and won his only effort over today's track and trip. It was, admittedly, the best part of three years ago, but he hasn't been back since, but now returns on a mark just 2lbs higher than that win.

That 11/4 BOG price quoted above about Circuitous is available with Betfair Sportsbook, SkyBet and Coral: I've plumped for the latter, but you can make your own mind up, when you...

...click here for the betting on the 8.55 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 9th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th September 2015

A strange one yesterday (Tuesday), as Push Me was withdrawn shortly before the off time, citing the going as the reason for her no-participation. An everyday occurrence in itself, but if you consider than she runs better on good ground than good to firm, I'd have thought she'd have been good to go.

I'd expected the track to be slower when putting her forward, so I was a bit bemused by the decision. I'm more inclined to believe the real reason was one that the stewards wouldn't waive a fine for, but I'm a cynic!

Anyway, non runners = no bets and no bets = no profit, so let's find a Wednesday winner from the...

4.35 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Where jockey Phillip Makin will ride the 4yr old colt Jacob Black for trainer Keith Dalgleish and the team are priced at 4/1 BOG to land this Class 3, 1 mile handicap on ground that is currently good to firm (good in places), but will probably end up as good after it has been watered!

The trainer, Keith Dalgleish...

...is 33 from 185 (17.8% SR) for for 55.6pts (+30.1% ROI) here at Carlisle, broken down as follows...

  • handicaps : 31/149 (20.8% SR) for 82.2pts (+55.1% ROI)
  • male horses : 23/132 (17.4% SR) for 42.6pts (+32.3% ROI)
  • those priced 2/1 to 15/2 : 27/93 (29% SR) for 68.2pts (73.3% ROI)
  • those ridden by Phillip Makin : 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 14.8pts (+57% ROI)

Phillip, himself, rides this track well...

With 18 winners from 105 rides (17.1% SR) over the last five seasons producing level stakes profits of 37.2pts at an ROI of 35.4%, of which male horses are 12/75 (16% SR) for 29.6pts (+39.5% ROI) whilst in handicaps he has 15 winners from 74 (20.3% SR) for 58.1pts (+78.5% ROI).

And what about Jacob Black?

Well, the horse is 4 from 12 (33.33% SR) for 7.8pts (+64.8% ROI) to date with all four career wins coming at odds below 5/1 on right handed tracks over trips of 8/8.5 furlongs on good to firm/good ground. He's 2/2 here at Carlisle, having landed a pair of course and distance handicaps here around this time last year.

Conditions look ideal for jockey, trainer and horse and the relationships between themselves which is why I took that 4/1 BOG from Hills at 9.45pm. 7/2 BOG now seems the general consensus and if you prefer and/or need to use another firm, then I suggest that you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.