Tag Archive for: Keith Dalgleish

Ganton glory with Chichester for Dalgleish and Kingscote

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Richard Kingscote lamented the fact Keith Dalgleish plans to leave the training ranks having partnered his Chichester to victory in the Seat Unique Ganton Stakes at York.

Dalgleish announced earlier this year he planned to do something else and was not leaving the profession for financial reasons. And with results like this he will clearly be a loss.

A talented former rider, Dalgleish is closing in on 1,000 winners. Chichester (15-2) has provided him with six of them, but this was by far the biggest with the Listed event carrying an almost £40,000 first prize.

When odds-on favourite Shining Blue hit the front he looked sure to collect for Saeed bin Suroor, but Kingscote had been biding his time on Chichester who stayed on strongly to win by a length and three-quarters.

“It was a great bit of placing by connections, they found a five-runner Listed race for good money so fair play,” said the Derby-winning jockey.

“I always thought I was getting there, we actually went a decent pace for once because in general of late we’ve been going steady but he was able to get into a nice rhythm.

“He found plenty. He’s a funny old boy, he’s more than capable as we’ve seen but sometimes he needs things to go his way. He stays this trip well, he ran over 10 furlongs the last day.

“Keith knows what he’s doing and it’s a great shame he’s handing in his licence – he can certainly do the job.”

Radio Goo Goo has been a revelation this season for David Evans
Radio Goo Goo has been a revelation this season for David Evans (Tim Goode/PA)

The improvement of the David Evans-trained Radio Goo Goo (11-2) shows no signs of stopping after she won her fourth race in a row in the British EBF Supporting Racing With Pride Fillies’ Handicap.

She won first time out this year at Wolverhampton off 72, was beaten on Good Friday at Lingfield and then rattled off a treble at Chester, Haydock and back at Chester.

Racing off a career-high 86 she looked beaten, but just got the better off Al Simmo by a nose under Ben Curtis.

“To be honest she wasn’t really travelling so I had to sit on her a bit longer than I wanted to fill her up,” said Curtis.

“I didn’t think I was going to win, but the last few strides her ears went back and she really wanted it.

“She finished second a fair few times last year, but that was over five and she kept bumping into one. She’s stronger this year and is better suited to six and Dave’s horses are flying at the moment. Hopefully she can keep rising.

The most valuable race of its kind every season is the SKF Rous Selling Stakes which went the way of Ollie Pears’ Celestial Flight (7-1) in a photo finish.

Celestial Flight (right) just got home in front
Celestial Flight (right) just got home in front (Tim Goode/PA)

James Sullivan’s mount prevailed by a head from Up The Jazz on his second start and was bought back in for £25,000.

“We always like to target this. For an inexpensive horse it gives the owners a fantastic day out and the chance to run for a big pot,” said Pears.

“I bought him back in as there would have been an awful lot of disappointed people here if I hadn’t.

“We think he’s a horse who should go on and he’s a horse who should get seven furlongs.”

Harvanna (right) showed the benefit of her debut
Harvanna (right) showed the benefit of her debut (Tim Goode/PA)

Karl Burke saddled his 11th individual juvenile winner of the season when Harvanna (5-1) won the Juddmonte British EBF Fillies’ Restricted Novice Stakes after finishing third on her debut.

Clifford Lee was on top and said: “She learned a lot on her debut and we saw the benefit of that.

“We’ve got some nice two-year-olds, hopefully I’ll be on a couple next week and we’ll just see how the ground is and everything before finalising.”

Mick and David Easterby’s Menelaus (15-2) followed up a recent win at Thirsk when stylishly pulling clear in the Andy Thornton Hospitality Furniture Apprentice Handicap under Connor Planas.

It was a third success in his last four rides for Planas, who is enjoying a breakthrough season.

Monday Musings: A Glut of Shocks

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Have you noticed, there seems to have been an astonishing number of long-priced winners of late? Lack of energy has restricted my analysis to a few days from the middle to the end of last week, with starting and finishing points designed to give the most biased slant to prove the argument, writes Tony Stafford.

Thus, I’ll kick off on Wednesday at Hereford when there were four winning favourites but 14/1 and 12/1 scorers. In the evening at Kempton, one winning favourite emerged alongside 25/1 and 10/1 winners with vanquished 8/11 and even-money shots, but the statistician’s delight came at Newcastle at the beginning of the afternoon.

Within half an hour, after the two opening races went to the market leaders, David Griffiths, no stranger to long-priced success, stepped in with 125/1 shot Endofastorm – my mate, Wilf Storey, sent out that 3/1 favourite Going Underground – unfortunately he did.

Half an hour later it was the turn of Keith Dalgleish. His four-year-old gelding Notimeforanother must rank as one of the all-time inappropriately named winners, so soon after the Griffiths filly and in his case just the 100/1.

But there are 100/1 shots and 100/1 shots and this one should never have started anything like that. Indeed, if certain members of the tipping/punter profession had looked carefully at the race, they would have come away with the value bet of all-time. They say you can’t eat value, but this one instance of it was a tasty dish indeed.

The decoy was his run the previous week over the straight one mile, ridden by the same jockey, Billy Garritty. Starting slowly, he trailed the field throughout and was beaten 33 lengths into last place. His rider reported he was never travelling.

He travelled all right on Wednesday, in midfield until nudged along by Garrity two out. He joined the Alice Haynes-trained even-money favourite, Regal Rambler, 110 yards out and beat him by a neck.

That was his fourth racecourse appearance, the second coming in an Aintree bumper where after showing initial promise at Market Rasen, he was the 11/2 third favourite but finished 33 lengths behind the winner.

Hanging under Jamie Moore in the closing stages, he appeared a likely non-stayer, at least at 2m1f on soft ground. The Market Rasen race was over 13.5 furlongs and he had started the 2/1 favourite and finished a good runner-up to the Don Cantillon-trained winner. I’ll keep you in suspense for a little longer as to that horse’s identity.

The previous October, Poetic Music had won the same Market Rasen race on debut for John Butler. She was sold to a new client of Fergal O’Brien’s for 60 grand at Cheltenham soon after and went on to win two more bumpers, including the New Year’s Day one at Cheltenham before finishing sixth to Facile Vega in the Festival Bumper at Cheltenham. She won first time over hurdles before being beaten by the smart Nicky Henderson filly Luccia in a Listed hurdle at Newbury.

The winner of the same 2022 Market Rasen juvenile bumper cost two and a half times as much to winkle away from the shrewd Mr Cantillon, the £150k being paid at that Cheltenham auction by a patron of Ben Pauling’s. Three days before Notimeforanother won at those incredible odds, the Pauling juvenile followed Poetic Music’s example by winning the New Year’s Day bumper at Cheltenham. Fiercely Proud, for that’s his name, could be very smart and no wonder Notimeforanother could win a low-grade 4yo and up novice race for the equally sharp Mr Dalgleish!

Moving on from Wednesday, Thursday at Chelmsford featured 40/1 and 22/1 scorers with no winning favourite and, while Ffos Las was a more even battleground, there were still 16/1 and 12/1 winners in West Wales. As for Wolverhampton, while four favourites did oblige, Clive Cox’s 1/9 shot Captain Pep, in the Middleham Park colours, never looked like pegging back a Tony Carroll front-runner which checked in at 16’s by two comfortable lengths.

Friday was more level pegging, but in less than half an hour on Saturday there were three notable reverses for lovers of short-priced favourites at Sandown, Wincanton and Cork. A safe haven for backers when times are tough is usually the Willie Mullins stable and with 24 winners in the past fortnight, there must have been room for some profit.

But it has taken him 98 runners over the busy Christmas/New Year period to amass those victories (including three yesterday, two long odds-on, at Naas) and 38 of the runners started favourite. One of those to be over-turned was the 1/4 shot Alastar in the opening maiden at Cork on Saturday.

This son of Helmet had smart form in France and Italy as a three-year-old but had not raced since November 2021 when unplaced in a Group 2 race in Italy. Bought for €150k that autumn, he was gelded early last year. So many of the international Mullins/Howard Kirk buys have lengthy preparation times before arriving on Irish racecourses, with everyone fully expecting the formality of a win. It’s usually the longer the gap the more certain it becomes and 4/1 on about him was hardly a shock.

What was surprising was that the Denis Hogan-trained jumps debutant four-year-old Action Motion, a 12-times raced 65-rated non-winner on the flat, could get the better of the 98 RPR-rated gelding by half a length at 20/1.

Two more short-priced reverses immediately preceded the Cork boil-over. First the Gary Moore French import, Bo Zenith, winner of his only previous start in Auteuil, started 4/11 for his UK debut at Sandown but in the rain-softened ground, he faded up the hill behind the Nigel Hawke-trained I Have A Voice, trailing home 27 lengths back in third. Third favourite at 17/2, this sound stayer looks to have a future and could be a candidate for the Boodles Juvenile Hurdle.

Between these two obliterations, the defeat of a 4/6 shot at Wincanton might seem small beer. Kim Bailey had expected his Top Target to follow his previous success at Wetherby, but after racing prominently, he had no answer to the finishing burst of the 50/1 Joe Tizzard contender I Shut That Door who simply sailed past on the run-in to win by more than two lengths.

Bailey was interviewed on Sky Sports Racing after his front-running chaser Moonlighter battled on gallantly to win at Chepstow yesterday and he bemoaned the season that he and his trainer counterparts have been enduring, not least the implications it has had in hindering the preparation of some of his better horses for Cheltenham, which looms barely nine weeks away.

The seemingly never-ending dry summer and then the very cold weather which wiped out jump racing for a week before Christmas have severely restricted most of his horses in how often he could run them. Those trainers who pressed on regardless often were taking risks and for those who haven’t, now realistically there can only be time for one or at a pinch two prep runs if conditions stay suitable from now on.

Mullins though is so powerful that he will again be approaching the Festival with a guaranteed clutch of favourites. Facile Vega, State Man and Dysart Dynamo all strutted their stuff with aplomb in the period in question (not that State Man will be favourite if as expected he takes on Constitution Hill!) and even if six odds-on shots from Wille bit the dust, the punters will not be dissuaded from seizing what they have come to regard as their annual spring piggy bank.

As to Bailey, 28 years on from his amazing Champion Hurdle (Alderbrook) and Gold Cup (Master Oats) double, he still retains all the enthusiasm and skill, now operating from his nicely-developing yard at Andoversford, a few miles outside Cheltenham. Those big wins came five years after his Grand National success with Mr Frisk.

There’s no doubt that with so many promising unexposed types in his care, the belief persists that a second win in one of jump racing’s Big Three could still await him as he enters the later phase of his glorious career.

Having been around for the entirety of that time, I have to say, I can never remember so many massively-priced winners, even a few for him. I believe it’s a function of Betfair’s domination of the betting market coupled with the weakness on-course and the effects of affordability checks.  Maybe the Editor, who was formerly chairman of the Horse Race Bettors Forum, could spell it out for me and you all!

 - TS

[I don’t know, really, though I suspect it’s most likely to be a combination of moderate racing and the uneven distribution of overround – where the top of the market offers tighter prices and the tail fatter odds – since the move to industry SP’s. That, of course, might be hogwash – Ed.]

Racing Systems: Flat Trainers, Part 1

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Last week, I switched focus to flat racing (turf and all weather combined) and, as we’re now officially into the flat season, I am sticking again to the flat with attention switching to trainer based systems, writes Dave Renham.

As with the first five articles in this series I am going to look over the long term, studying UK data from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021 with all profits quoted to Betfair Starting Price.

As we know, systems are not for everyone, and I am not a system user per se. However, I do have a group of systems that highlight horses I will then go on to study in more detail: systems do not have to be totally rigid unless you want them to be.

As I have stated before when sharing these racing systems I am not advocating that you use some of them, or all of them; rather, the plan is to give you the facts and figures in order to make an informed choice. So let’s get cracking:

 

Keith Dalgleish – Second Career start system

Keith Dalgleish started training in 2011 in South Lanarkshire. His career strike rate stands at 12% which is very respectable and last year (2021) was his best year numerically with 93 winners in total. It was also his most profitable; backing all Dalgleish runners on the flat in 2021 would have yielded a return of over 26p in the £.

Looking at his record, he has done very well with horses having their second ever career run. Hence this system reads very simply:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Keith Dalgleish
  3. Second career start

 

Let us have a look at the raw system results:

 

 

These are solid looking results – good profit from an excellent ROI. The strike rate of nearly 17% is sound considering the type of horse we are talking about: the average win strike rate for all second time starters (all trainers) is around 12%.

Let's graph the annual breakdowns and as we are looking at relatively small yearly samples I have used profit figures to £1 level stakes. As Dalgleish started training in 2011, the data set starts from there rather than 2009:

 

 

As can be seen, Dalgleish's results were not so good in the two of the first three years, but I think we can forgive this as it was the early days of his training career. From 2014 onwards his runners having their second career start have done very well. Overall they've recorded seven winning years and four losing ones; (six out of the last eight were profitable). 2017 looks poor but he had runner up finishes that year at BSP prices of 20.45, 14.50 and 12.74. Two of these were beaten very narrowly (a head and half a length) and if a couple had managed to win, the year would have been around the breakeven point. We have to appreciate that regardless of bottom line results, luck, good or bad, can play a significant part in whether we make a profit or a loss.

There is good news that these results have not been badly skewed by numerous big priced winners; just two winners over 30.0 on Betfair and none over 50.0. Indeed, if we focus on his runners whose BSP was under 30.0 results actually are even better:

 

 

That focus brings the strike rate up nicely to nearly a win from every four runners, and returns close to 73p in the £. The yearly breakdown also improves to eight winning years and three losing ones.

As with any system involving very unexposed horses, we are playing with fire a bit. However, Dalgleish has been profitable with both his 2yos and 3yos under this system (N.B. he has had just four qualifiers aged 4 or older, one of which won). The majority of his qualifiers have been 2yos, but the 66 3yo qualifiers produced half of the profits.

So is this a system to use? Quite possibly. Obviously we are reliant on the trainer having a 2yo crop each year of similar ability to what he has had in the past as they will make up about 75% of all system qualifiers, but consistency in that regard hasn't been too much of an issue to date.

Some additional points to note. Dalgleish's female runners have been particularly successful. Also, as highlighted in this Keith Dalgleish trainer profile, his best results have come at tracks in the north of England and in Scotland. He had 31 qualifiers that raced in the midlands or further south and just two have won.

 

Hugo Palmer – 2 & 3yos that made debut at Newmarket

In my last article I shared a system that backed horses that finished in the first three at Newmarket on their debut (first ever run). Newmarket debutants are a key part to this system too. Here are the rules:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. 2yo and 3yo runners from the Hugo Palmer stable
  3. Subsequent runs after debut at Newmarket
  4. SP 10/1 or less

 

This is a completely different system from anything I have shared before. This is because the same horse could become a qualifier several times in different races using this system. Essentially if the horse made their debut at Newmarket, you back it on any subsequent start as a 2yo or 3yo. That might be one or two runs, it could be ten, and it could be none.

I have also added a price cap which as we know is something we cannot always be 100% sure of when betting pre-race, especially if the early price of the horse is around the figure quoted (in this case an industry SP of 10/1). For the record a BSP price cap of 15.0 would give us virtually the same results and bottom line. The good thing about this price cap is that we know the overall figures are not skewed by any huge priced winners.

Onto the system results now:

 

 

Considering the system is backing all Newmarket debutants on all of their subsequent starts up to and including the age of three, these figures look very sound. For me personally, the strike rate of over 30% is the most impressive part. Good strike rates are not a pre-requisite for a good system, but in general the higher the hit rate the more likely it is to be consistent.

I dug a bit deeper by looking to see how many individual horses qualified under this system – 57 horses did and of those 43 managed at least one win. This means 75% of all runners that started won at least once after their Newmarket debut before reaching the age of 4. That is a very high percentage (average for all trainers is 59%), which I guess explains the system’s apparent success.

Onto the yearly breakdown now – I am using profit figures to £1 level stakes again due to the relative small number of qualifiers each year. The data shared, as with Dalgleish, only goes back to 2011, as that is when Palmer started training, too:

 

 

Despite the relatively small samples for each year, Palmer has secured profits in eight of the years, had two losing years and one that broke even. When you look at the annual strike rates, they too have been impressive:

 

 

We can ignore 2013 as he only had two qualifiers but every other year the strike rate has exceeded 20% while in nine of the 11 years the strike rate has been 25% or higher.

This is definitely an unusual system as normally the system rules creates one bet for one horse. As stated earlier, with this system the same horse can be bet several times. In general, horses that make their debut at Newmarket are of a good level of ability and in Hugo Palmer’s case they certainly seem to run well early in their careers.

The one fly in the ointment with this system is that Palmer has agreed to train for ex-footballer Michael Owen at his Manor House Stables in Cheshire. That, of course, is a lot further from Newmarket than his former Kremlin House yard on the Snailwell Road, actually in Newmarket!

 

Paul Midgley – Finished in first two LTO system

Paul Midgley is definitely not a household name but in previous research I have done he is a trainer who I think is underrated. This system is very simple as the title suggests:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Paul Midgley
  3. Finished 1st or 2nd LTO

The overall results going back to 2009 are as follows:

 

 

The results are very good considering the simplicity of the system, and the strike rate is about what you would expect for this type of runner. Returns of 16p in the £ are thoroughly acceptable, too. Let’s check the annual figures now to £1 level stakes at BSP:

 

 

A small loss in 2009 was followed by a bigger reverse in 2010 but, since then, eight years of profit (albeit two only just) and three losing years. Two very good years (2012 and 2018) produced the lion’s share of the overall profits and, as with many systems, results fluctuate somewhat from year to year. Nothing is ever going to be a smooth line with system angles and this is a good example of the peaks and troughs. The key is that the peaks should Himalayan while the troughs are only small gullies!

In its raw form this not a system I would consider for backing all runners, but I would take a note of any qualifier before undertaking some further race analysis.

It is also worth sharing the fact that much bigger priced runners have performed poorly. Those with an industry SP of 20/1 or bigger have produced just one winner from 67, creating losses of £30.83 (ROI -46.0%). On the plus side this means the raw system has not been skewed in the least by big priced winners; quite the opposite in fact.

With horses that have run well last time out I am personally a fan of that good run being relatively recent – within around three weeks is normally my personal cut off point on the flat. Hence I wanted to see what difference, if any, that type of additional rule would make to the Midgley results.

Here are the findings of Midgley horses that finished LTO 1st or 2nd racing again within 3 weeks:

 

 

The strike rate has edged up and although profits are down in absolute terms by about £6 there would have been 276 fewer qualifiers compared to original system. Consequently, returns have improved from 16p to 23p in the £. In terms of annual returns, these have smoothed out a bit, too, as the table below shows:

 

 

That's ten winning years (although three were essentially break-even) and three losing years. Restricting selections to those which ran within the last three weeks looks a plausible and logical addition to the system, assuming one is happy that this is not significant back-fitting: your call. This system has possibilities for sure.

 

Roger Varian – Six month system

Roger Varian was assistant trainer to Michael Jarvis for a decade before taking over the reins in 2011 (making him the third trainer in this article to have started in that year). He has been a very consistent trainer and seems able to get runners fit regardless of time off the track. Here is the Roger Varian system:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer - Roger Varian
  3. Six months (180 days) or more since last run
  4. SP 10/1 or less

Some trainers are adept at getting their runners fit after a long break and Roger Varian certainly falls into that category. I have included the same price cap as I used earlier for the Hugo Palmer system. This attempts to avoid the inevitable price cap ‘back-fit’ trap that many system punters fall into; sticking to the same price cap is the way to go.

Onto the results for this system (2011-2021):

 

 

The table shows that roughly three in every ten qualifiers have won which, considering the time off the track, is impressive. Here is the annual breakdown:

 

 

It's a fairly consistent set of results with eight winning years and three losing ones. Each losing year lost less than a tenner at £1 stakes, the worst being £8.13. Further signs of consistency can be found when we look at a breakdown of qualifiers by age:

 

 

Each age group can boast a profit, strike rates are consistently good to outstanding, and all A/E values  are at 1 or higher. This system looks one to follow and, at the time of writing, Varian has had seven qualifiers in 2022, two of which have won at BSP prices of 2.29 and 9.92, and a further three of which ran second, boosting the overall profits by a further few quid.

 *

And so we come to end of this latest piece, the first of three focusing on flat trainer system angles. Hopefully you have found a few useful snippets above, and next time I’ll be digging under the headline numbers of four more flat trainers.

- DR