Tag Archive for: kelso horse racing tips and trends

Sat TV Trends: 28th February 2026

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We’ve had better LIVE Saturday ITV race days, but with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon then it’s no surprise the quality is slightly down – Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster provide the LIVE ITV action this week, and, as always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the races covered from a trends and stats angle.

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

3:15 – BetVictor Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 2 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV

14/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
13/15 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
10/15 – Favourites unplaced
8/15 – Aged 10 years-old
8/15 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
7/15 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
3/15 – Won their last race
1/15 – Winning favourites (none in the last 9)
6 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or less
Trainer David Dennis won the race in 2022 and 2023
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
Sam Brown (100/30) won this race in 2025
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 15/2

3.45 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV

19/21 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
18/21 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
18/21 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
18/21 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
17/21 – Won over this trip (2m4f) previously (or further)
16/21 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
15/21 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
14/21 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/21 – Officially rated 139 or higher
12/21 – Favourites placed
9/21 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (8 of the last 16)
9/21 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
9/21 – Won by a French-bred horse
8/21 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
8/21 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/21 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/21 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/21 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/21 – Won their last race
Heltenham won this race in 2024
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1
No winning favourite in the last 8 runnings
15 of the last 17 winners aged between 6-8
12 of the last 16 winners aged 7 or 8 (6 of the last 8)
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1:25 – Virgin Bet A Good Bet Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV

11/12 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
10/12 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/12- Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12– Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/12 – Favourites placed in the top 2
8/12 – Irish bred
5/12 - Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
6 of the last 10 winners aged 6 (4 of last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

2:00 – Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV

14/14 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
10/14 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
8/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
4/14 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
3/14 - Ridding by a claiming jockey
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Trained by Brian Ellison
10 of the last 13 winners carried 10st 11lbs or more
The last 10 winners returned 11/2 or shorter
7 of the last 9 winners aged 6-9
Just one winning favourite (joint) in the last 9
Brookie (11/2) won this in 2025
Homme Public (3/1) won the race in 2024
Calico (11/4 jfav) won the race in 2023
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

2:35 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV

20/21 – Aged 8 or older
20/21 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/21 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
17/21 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
16/21 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
16/21 – Aged 9 or older
14/21 – Rated 132 or less
12/21 – From the top 3 in the betting
12/21 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/21 – Irish bred
10/21 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/21 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (4 winners)
7/21 – Won their last race
4/21 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/21 – Winning Favourites
Moroder won the race in 2023 and 2025 (Both ridden by James Best)
Trainer Kim Bailey has won the race 3 times (2 since 2016)
The average wining SP in the last 9 runnings is 12/1
Trainer Seamus Mullins is 3-4 (75%) with his chasers at the track – plus has won 2 of the last 3
Jockeys Ben Godfrey and Charlie Maggs both have 50% SR’s at the track over fences

 

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KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1:10 bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (5yo+ 0-130) 2m1f ITV

Just 2 previous runnings
Trainers Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have a 29% SR with their chasers at the track
Trainers Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore have a 27% SR with their chasers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 24% SR riding over fences at Kelso

1:40 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m 7 1/2f) ITV

11/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
9/12 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
8/12 – Had run at the course before
8/12 – Aged 9 or older
8/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Won over 3m plus in the past
7/12 – Placed 4th or better last time out
5/12 – Rated between 132-141 (inc)
4/12 – Won by jockey Brian Hughes (4 of the last 10)
4/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/12 – Trained by Sandy Thomson
7 of the last 9 winners aged 8 or 9
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 36% SR with his chasers at the track
Trainers Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have a 29% SR with their chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2

2:15 – bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV

16/17 – Aged 7 or younger
16/17 – Favourites placed in the top three
15/17 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
15/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
10/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/17 – Irish bred
7/17 – Had raced at Kelso
4/17 – Winning favourite
3/17– Ran at Musselburgh last time out
3/17 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
8 of the last 10 winners aged 5 or 6 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 33% record with their hurdlers at the track

2:55 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV

14/14 – Had run in the last 3 months
12/14 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
10/14 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/14 – Never run at the track before
8/14 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/14 – Irish bred
6/14 – Rated between 138-146
6/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14– Ridden by Brian Hughes
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Richards
2/14 – Trained by Ewan Whillans
Cracking Rhapsody has won the last 2 runnings (9/1 and 12/1)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

3:30 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged 6-8
4/5 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Carried 10-4 or less (3 of last 4)
3/5 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
3/5 – Aged 6 years-old
2/5 – Winning favourites
Bold Light (17/2) won this race in 2025
Serious Operator (7/2) won the race in 2024
Lucinda Russell has trained the last 2 winners
Paul Nicholls trained the winner in 2021 (Flash Collonges)
Nicky Richards trained the winner in 2022 (Famous Bridge)
Dan Skelton trained the winner in 2023 (Santos Blue)
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 33% record with their hurdlers at the track
Trainers Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have a 38% SR with their chasers at the track

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Sat TV Trends: 26th March 2022

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Something for everyone this Saturday as new turf season gets going at Doncaster on Saturday, with the ultra-competitive Lincoln Handicap as the feature, while there is also decent all-weather racing at Kempton with that include the Listed Magnolia Stakes, plus jumping fans will get their fix at Kelso.

The ITV cameras are showing eight races across the three venues and, as always, we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats.

KEMPTON Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – Unibet Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

14/14 – Aged 6 or younger
13/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
12/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Drawn in stalls 1-4 (inc)
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
8/14 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
8/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/14 – Had won at Kempton before
5/14 – Unplaced favourites
4/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Trained by John Gosden
3/14 – Trained by William Haggas

2.40 - Unibet Queen’s Prize Handicap (London Stayers’ Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV

10/10 - Won no more than 5 times
9/10 - Aged between 4-6 years-old
8/10 - Didn’t win last time out
8/10 - Had won over 1m6f or further
7/10 - Only won between 1-3 times before
7/10 - Rated between 82-89
7/10 - Had run at Kempton before
7/10 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 - Favourites that finished 2nd
5/10  - Had won at Kempton in the past
2/10 - Trained by Roger Charlton
0/10 - Winning favourites

 

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends

1.50 - SBK Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
15/17 – Had won no more than 5 times before
15/17 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
15/17 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had won over 6f before
12/17 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/17 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
11/17 – Rated 102+
10/17 – Had raced at Doncaster before
9/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites (or joint)
4/17 – Had won at Doncaster before
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 12 runnings
7 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)

2.25 – SBK Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

16/19 – Carried 8-13 or more
15/19 – Aged 4 years-old
15/19 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
13/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/19 – Won over a mile before
10/19 – Won from a single-figure draw
3/19 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
2/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Won last time out
2/19 – Won a race at Doncaster before
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 19 years

3.00 – SBK Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV

Just 8 previous running
8/8 – Last ran 4+ months ago
8/8 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Rated 106+
7/8 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/8 – Had won over at least 1m before
7/8 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4
4/8 – Had won 6+ times before
4/8 – Winning favourites
4/8 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/8 – Trained by Roger Varian (3 of last 5)
2/8 – Won last time out

3.35 – SBK Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

18/18 – Aged 6 or younger
17/18 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
15/18 – Had won over at least 1m before
15/18 – Had won between 2-4 times before
14/18 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
13/18 – Having their first run of the flat season
12/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
11/18 – Aged 4 years-old
10/18 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
10/18 – Officially rated between 95-100
10/18 – Placed first or second last time out
9/18 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/18 – Won last time out
7/18 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
5/18 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/18  - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by William Haggas
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/18 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/18 – Trained by John Quinn
2/18 - Trained by John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 3)
9 of the last 11 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 35 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

 

Kelso Horse Racing Trends

1.35 - Schloss Roxburghe Hotel Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m2f ITV

7/7 - Aged between 7-10 years old
7/7 - Won over at least 2m5f before
7/7 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 - Carried 11st 1lbs or more in weight
6/7 - Didn’t win last time out
5/7 - Carried 11st 5lbs or more in weight
5/7 - Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 - Irish bred
4/7 - Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/7 - Rated between 140-142
3/7 - Ran at Haydock last time out
3/7 - Had run at Kelso before
2/7 - Trained by Lucinda Russell
1/7  - Winning favourites

3:15 - Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 50% (3-from-6) record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 40% record (2-from-5) record with his hurdlers at the track

Sat TV Trends: 6th March 2021

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We’ve had better LIVE Saturday ITV race days, but with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon then it’s no surprise the quality is slightly down – Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster provide the LIVE ITV action this week, and, as always, we’ve got all the races covered from a trends and stats angle.

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.15 – BetVictor Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 3 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV

9/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
8/10 – Aged 10 years-old
8/10 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
6/10 – Favourites unplaced
5/10 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
4/10 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
2/10 – Won their last race
1/10 – Winning favourites
Carole’s Destrier (6/1) won the race in 2019
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 6/1

 

1.50 – BetVictor Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV

15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/16 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
13/16 – Won over this trip previously
11/16 – Officially rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/16 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/16 – Favourites  to win (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

 

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.20 – Virgin Bet Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m96y ITV

7 previous runnings
7/7- Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/7 – Favourites placed in the top 2
6/7 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
4/7 - Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
4/7 – Irish bred

2.55 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
6/9 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/9 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
5/9 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
3/9 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
2/9 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Movie Legend won the race in 2019

 

3.30 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV

16/16 – Aged 8 or older
15/16 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/16 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
13/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
12/16 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
12/16 – Aged 9 or older
11/16 – From the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Rated 131 or less
10/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
7/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Irish bred
4/16 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/16 – Winning Favourites
8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 6 runnings
Captain Chaos won the race in 2020
Chidswell won the race in 2019
Definitely Red won this race in 2017
 

KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.30 – bet365 Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV

11/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Favourites placed in the top three
11/12 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
10/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Had raced at Kelso before
6/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Winning favourite
3/12– Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/12 – Trained by Lucinda Russell

 

2.05 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV

No past runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 40% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track

 

2.40 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m 7 1/2f) ITV

7/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Had run at the course before
6/7 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
5/7 – Placed 4th or better last time out
5/7 – Won over 3m plus in the past
5/7 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
5/7 – Aged 9 or older
4/7 – Irish bred
4/7 – Rated between 132-140 (inc)
3/7 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/7 – Won by jockey Brian Hughes
3/7 – Winning favourite
Definitely Red (Evs) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2

 

 

3.15 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m

 

9/9 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/9 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Had run in the last 3 months
8/9 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – Rated between 138-146
4/9 – Winning favourites
4/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/9 – Ridden by Brian Hughes
2/9 – Had won at the track before
2/9 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/9 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/4

 

 

 

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