Tag Archive for: Lincoln Handicap trends

2024 Lincoln Handicap Trends

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Billed as the feature race on the first Saturday of the new British flat racing turf season, the Lincoln Handicap is run over a distance of 1m at Doncaster racecourse.  

In recent years, the race has been dominated by horses aged 4 years-old, winning 11 of the last 20 renewals, while with three wins in the last 15 runnings trainer William Haggas is one of the men to look out for.

Weight-carried has been a big trend in recent years with 18 of the last 20 winners carrying 9-4 or less, while 10 of the last 20 (50%) were officially rated between 95-100.

Despite, being a competitive handicap the favourites in the betting don’t have too bad a record either with 4 of the last 20 (20%) winning, but also note that 13 of the last 20 favourites were unplaced.

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Lincoln Handicap Betting Trends

19/20 – Aged 6 or younger
18/20 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
17/20 – Had won over at least 1m before
16/20 – Had won between 2-4 times before
15/20 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
15/20 – Having their first run of the flat season
14/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
13/20 – Unplaced favourites
12/20 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
11/20 – Aged 4 years-old
10/20 – Officially rated between 95-100
10/20 – Placed first or second last time out
9/20 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
6/20 – Placed horses from stall 12 (2 winners)
5/20  - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/20 – Winning favourites
3/20 – Trained by William Haggas
2/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/20 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/20 – Trained by John Quinn
2/20 - Trained by John Gosden
2/20 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 4)
10 of the last 13 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 37 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 14/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

Lincoln Handicap Recent Winners

2023 – MIGRATION (18/1)
2022 – JOHAN (28/1)
2021 - HAQEEQY (9/2)
2020 - No Race (Covid)
2019 – AUXERRE (5/2 fav)
2018 – ADDEYBB (5/1)
2017 – BRAVERY (20/1)
2016 – SECRET BRIEF (12/1)
2015 – GABRIAL (12/1)
2014 – OCEAN TEMPEST (33/1)
2013 – LEVITATE (20/1)
2012 – BRAE HILL (25/1)
2011 – SWEET LIGHTNING (16/1)
2010 – PENITENT (3/1 fav)
2009 – EXPRESSO STAR (10/3 fav)
2008 – SMOKEY OAKEY (10/1)
2007 – VERY WISE (9/1)
2006 – BLYTHE KNIGHT (22/1)
2005 – STREAM OF GOLD (5/1 fav)
2004 – BABODANA (20/1)
2003 -  PABLO (5/1)

Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

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Sat TV Trends: 27th March 2021

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Something for everyone this Saturday as new turf season gets going at Doncaster on Saturday, with the ultra-competitive Lincoln Handicap as the feature, while there is also decent all-weather racing at Kempton with that include the Listed Magnolia Stakes, plus jumping fans will get their fix at Newbury.

The ITV cameras are showing eight races across the three venues and, as always, we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats.

 

KEMPTON Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.45 –Ladbrokes Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/13 – Drawn in stalls 1-4 (inc)
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
8/13 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
7/13 – Winning favourites
6/13 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/13 – Had won at Kempton before
5/13 – Unplaced favourites
4/13 – Irish bred
3/13 – Trained by William Haggas
3/13 – Trained by John Gosden


2.15 – Ladbrokes Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl2 1m3f ITV

16/16 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
13/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/16 – Had won between 2-4 times before
11/16 – Rated between 89 and 99
11/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
9/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Aged 4 years-old
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Winning favourites

 

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends

2.00 – Unibet Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV

Just 7 previous running
7/7 – Last ran 4+ months ago
7/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Rated 106+
6/7 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
6/7 – Had won over at least 1m before
6/7 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4
4/7 – Had won 6+ times before
4/7 – Winning favourites
4/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/7 – Trained by Roger Varian (3 of last 4)
2/7 – Won last time out

2.35 – Unibet Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

15/18 – Carried 8-13 or more
15/18 – Aged 4 years-old
15/18 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
13/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/18 – Won over a mile before
10/18 – Won from a single-figure draw
3/18 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
2/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Won last time out
1/18 – Won a race at Doncaster before
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 18 years

 

3.10 – Unibet Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

17/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
15/17 – Had won over at least 1m before
14/17 – Had won between 2-4 times before
13/17 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
12/17 – Having their first run of the flat season
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Officially rated between 95-100
9/17 – Placed first or second last time out
8/17 – Had raced at Doncaster before
7/17 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
7/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/17  - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/17 – Trained by John Quinn
2/17 – Ridden by James Doyle (last 2)
9 of the last 10 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 34 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

 

3.45 - Unibet Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

15/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
14/16 – Had won no more than 5 times before
14/16 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
14/16 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/16 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
11/16 – Had won over 6f before
11/16 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
10/16 – Rated 102+
9/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
3/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites (or joint)
3/16 – Had won at Doncaster before
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 11 runnings
7 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends

2.50 –BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 28% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 18% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Gary Moore is only 3-from-76 (4%) with his hurdlers at the track

 

3.25 - EBF & TBA Mares´ "National Hunt" Novices´ Hurdle Finale Limited Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV

15/16 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
15/16 – Won between 1-2 times before (hurdles)
12/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 –  Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/16 – Aged 6 years-old
8/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Ran at Huntingdon last time out
2/16 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/16 – Trained by Charlie Longsdon
12 of the last 14 winners carried 11-3 or less in weight
Annie Mc won the race in 2019

Lincoln Handicap Trends

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Billed as the feature race on the first Saturday of the new British flat racing turf season, the Unibet-sponsored Lincoln Handicap is run over a distance of 1m at Doncaster racecourse.  

In recent years the race has been dominated by horses aged 4 years-old, winning 10 of the last 17 renewals, while with three wins in the last 13 runnings trainer William Haggas is the man to look out for.

Weight-carried has been a big trend in recent years with 16 of the last 17 winners carrying 9-4 or less, while 9 of the last 17 (53%) were officially rated between 95-100.

Despite, being a competitive handicap the favourites in the betting don’t have too bad a record either with 4 of the last 17 (24%) winning, but also note that 10 of the last 17 favourites were unplaced.

In 2021, the Lincoln Handicap will be run on Saturday 27th March.

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Unibet Lincoln Handicap Betting Trends

17/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
15/17 – Had won over at least 1m before
14/17 – Had won between 2-4 times before
13/17 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
12/17 – Having their first run of the flat season
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Officially rated between 95-100
9/17 – Placed first or second last time out
8/17 – Had raced at Doncaster before
7/17 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
7/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/17  - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by John Quinn
2/17 – Ridden by James Doyle (last 2)
9 of the last 10 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 34 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

Lincoln Handicap Recent Winners

2020 - No Race (Covid)
2019 – AUXERRE (5/2 fav)
2018 – ADDEYBB (5/1)
2017 – BRAVERY (20/1)
2016 – SECRET BRIEF (12/1)
2015 – GABRIAL (12/1)
2014 – OCEAN TEMPEST (33/1)
2013 – LEVITATE (20/1)
2012 – BRAE HILL (25/1)
2011 – SWEET LIGHTNING (16/1)
2010 – PENITENT (3/1 fav)
2009 – EXPRESSO STAR (10/3 fav)
2008 – SMOKEY OAKEY (10/1)
2007 – VERY WISE (9/1)
2006 – BLYTHE KNIGHT (22/1)
2005 – STREAM OF GOLD (5/1 fav)
2004 – BABODANA (20/1)
2003 -  PABLO (5/1)

Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

 

Let’s look at some of the key trends……………………

Age Concern: In recent years, the bulk of Lincoln Handicap winners have been aged 6 or younger. You have to go back to 1998 (Hunters of Brora) to find the last horse to win aged 7 or older, while delving further into this stat - since 1965 with only seen two successful horses aged 7 or older! It’s actually the 4, 5 and 6 year-olds that have by far the best records, but if you want to target just one of those three age groups, it’s the 4 year-olds that have edged it with 7 wins in the last 12, including the last four renewals!

Weight Watchers: Being a handicap, then the weight carried is another thing to consider. With a whopping 16 of the last 17 (94%) winners carrying 9st-4lbs or less this trend is a must to have onside. While, in more recent times, 9 of the last 10 winners won carrying between 9st and 9st-4lbs on their backs, including last year’s winner – Auxerre (9st 2lbs). That’s a small weight window that will certainly help put a line through a lot of the runners. It might also pay to note that in the last 22 runnings (since 1998) we’ve only had one winning horse carry less than 8st-9lbs!

Trip Advisor: With the race being run over 1m and the majority of runners having tried this trip in the past, then most will get a plus on the stat that’s seen 15 of the last 17 winners being previous winners over a mile – but it’s still worth noting. What it does tell us, however, is that horses stepping up from 6f or 7f, with no previous winning form over 1m+, haven’t fared well.

Recent Form: Coming into the race off the back of a decent recent run is another thing to look for. 9 of the last 17 (53%) winners finished first or second in their last race, with 7 of the last 17 (41%) coming here off the back of a victory. If we add in that 14 of the last 17 winners have won between 2-4 times previously in their careers, then this is another stat that should help to whittle down the big field. Finally, don’t be too concerned if your fancy is having its first run for a while as 12 of the last 17 winners won this on their seasonal reappearances.

Course Knowledge: Having previous course form at Doncaster has been another thing to look for in recent years with 8 of the last 17 winners having raced on Town Moor before. Also pay closer attention to horses that ran at either Lingfield or Newmarket last time out – 7 of the last 17 winners did just that!

Draw Bias: With normally around 20+ runners, then the draw is worth considering too. With a huge 13 of the last 17 (76%) winners coming from stalls 9 or higher this has been a solid stat that was again backed-up 12 months ago when the Charlie Appleby-trained Auxerre won from stall 17. Hopefully, this trend can instantly put a line through 8 runners! Also look for the horses drawn between 12 and 16 - in the last 17 years we’ve seen 9 placed.

Market Leaders: Considering the competitive nature of the Lincoln Handicap, it’s actually been fairly kind to punters recently. We’ve seen 4 of the last 17 favourites win (24%), while for the last two years we’ve also seen the ‘top two’ in the betting finish first and second. Having said that, the average winning SP in the last 16 years is still around 13/1, while even though the market leaders have a good record, we’ve also seen 10 of the last 17 jollies finish unplaced – suggesting the favourites tend to either win, or finish out of the frame.

Trainer Watch: With only four different stables having won 9 of the last 17 runnings between them then it would be foolish to overlook the trainers that like to target this prize. Those stables are William Haggas (3), John Quinn (2), Mark Tompkins (now retired) (2) and Richard Fahey (2). Therefore, it goes without saying anything they have entered should be respected (we can check nearer the time), plus it’s worth pointing out that Haggas, who won the race in 2018, also landed the prize in 1992, so he’s actually got four wins in this race under his belt.

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