Andy Newton's got all the trends for Saturday's TV races from Newmarket, Market Rasen & Newbury, plus the Irish Oaks over at the Curragh. Read more
Stat of the Day, 27th April 2013
It was the bridesmaid role for us again yesterday, It's My Time ran an excellent race, but just managed to find one other rival too good for her. Thankfully we'd gone E/W and the 7/1 Sp ensured that we at least made 38% profit on our total 1pt stake. Better than a poke in the eye, I say.
A change of scenery today as we head South to Lincolnshire for a Class 4 Mares' Handicap Hurdle over 2m 1f, better know as the...
I was talking to an old friend a few weeks back about racing and stats etc and he said that he looks for Course and Distance winners running after a win last time out, so when I got back from my holiday I delved into the databases to have a look.
What I saw was that horses in this category are successful in 22% of their races here at Market Rasen and last season saw three winners from eleven such qualifiers (27.3%) returning level stakes profits of 7.25pts (65.9% ROI) and there are actually three such horses running today: Keeverfield (3.05 race) and Be My Deputy (in the 3.40) both look to have good chances today, but their odds are likely to be a bit prohibitive for us at SotD, leaving us with the one that interests me the most: Cool Baranca.
Much of the premise around SotD is that trainers and horses are creatures of habit and this also applies in bringing us to select Cool Baranca today. She won this race last year, so she's got that C&D win under her belt and that victory came off the back off a win at Ayr. She comes here today to attempt to win this race again, also off the back of a victory in that corresponding race at Ayr.
When she took this race last year, she was running off a mark some 10lbs higher than today and despite a 4lb hike in the weights for that last win, she looks more than fairly well treated stepping back down to Class 4 racing after her recent Class 3 victory.
Bearing in mind that she took this race at an SP of 4/6 last year, we're not getting rich today and I'd expect her to be the justified favourite in this renewal. But having expected to see her at around 5/2 this morning, I was fairly happy to see BetVictor offering 10/3, so the play is a 1pt win bet on Cool Baranca at 10/3 (BOG, of course!) with BetVictor. There were, however, only three firms with a price on the board at 8.00am, so once the market forms fully, please...
Stat of the Day, 9th March 2013
Of course, Pine Creek finished where all good each way bets finish: one spot outside the places. Some of you managed to bet with bet365 and their five places offer, so well done to you. But it's another -1 on the official SotD score card, I'm afraid.
It's Lincolnshire today, and the...
We'll side with a horse whose performances on ground softer than good and in class 3 or lower reads 2123333.
Today's soft ground Class 3 handicap hurdle should be right up Crowning Jewel's street then. As regards trips, his form at around three miles is 31, and all his runs have been for this jockey.
If you can forgive a poor run last time - which is easy enough given it was a higher class and a half mile shorter trip - then he must have every chance of at least making the frame today, and 11/2 BOG with Paddy Power is fair enough. Each way a pleasure, sir.
Do make sure you...
Action today from Leicester, Market Rasen, Wincanton & Lingfield. here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's Well I Declare feature for...
General stats: Tony McCoy’s 43% strike rate (via twenty winners) stands head and shoulders above his rivals whilst on the training front, both Fergal O’Brian and Richard Harper boast 2/2 ratios.
General stats: Couple Nicky Henderson’s strike rate in December last year (see stats above) with his 41% ratio here at Market Rasen and you have a recipe for plenty of winners.
General stats: Tim Vaughan (24% strike rate) and Emma Lavelle (22%) are emerging as understudies to the lead role of Paul Nicholls (27%) at Wincanton via recent results.
Two and three-quarter mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.40: All nine winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 11-4 during which time, five winners were returned at odds ranging between 16/1 and 50/1. Four five-year-olds won during the study period, accompanied by just two successful market leaders who represented the vintage.
Class 4 ‘Silver Buck’ handicap chase event due to be contested at 2.10: Last year’s 2/1 market leader could only finish second (beaten three lengths) following six consecutive successful favourites.
Two mile Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Fiver-year-olds secured six of the nine contests during the last decade during which time, seven winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones. Three joint favourites have obliged though successful clear favourites were only conspicuous by their absence.
Wincanton’s closing conditional jockey’s event set for 3.40: Favourites have won four of the eight renewals, whilst Venetia Williams has won with her last two runners in the contest. At the time of writing, Venetia only had Last Shot entered up in the race.
Lingfield (transferred from Wolverhampton):
General stats: The 46% strike rate of favourites in the non handicap sector at Lingfield stands close inspection, whilst the 33% ratio of market leaders in three-year-old handicaps is a perfectly decent return during the last five years.
Today's action comes from Hereford, Kempton, Market Rasen and Wincanton and here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's preview of...
General stats: Professeur Emery was the only potential runner on the card hailing from the stable of Warren Greatrex which boasts a 31% strike rate at Hereford. The ratio improves to 37.5% in the relevant hurdle sector at the track.
General stats: James Fanshawe only had one runner entered this week at the time of writing and it was here at Kempton where James enjoys a 21% strike rate which is backed up by fifty-eight points of level stake profits. Spensely is entered for the scheduled 6.10 event.
General stats: O Crotaigh (scheduled to contest the 2.10 event) was Alan Brown’s only potential runner, the trainer boasting a strike rate of 27% at the racecourse. Otherwise, this is very much Nicky Henderson’s domain.
General stats: The world and his dog knows to respect each and every runner saddled by Paul Nicholls at this venue, whilst the 33% strike rate of Rebecca Curtis demands plenty of respect.
Two mile handicap chase scheduled for 1.30: Eight renewals have slipped by without a winning favourites being registered.
Two mile six furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last eight winners with the trainer holding three options this time around. Philip Hobbs has two runners entered in the race having secured two winners during the Nicholls (virtual) domination of the contest.
Three miles three furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.30: Horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured six of the seven contests. Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick on this occasion, the first market leaders having been beaten.
It's a big day at Newmarket for the C4 cameras, while they are also heading to Haydock and Market Rasen..... Read more
Good Morning and welcome to your final instalment of this week's Well I Declare feature. Mal Boyle wrote the original piece way back on Tuesday, so here's a recap of his thought's on today's action from no less than seven meetings from Chester, Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket, Ripon, Lingfield & Market Rasen.
General stats: Marco Botti and Jim Boyle boast 3/9 ratios on the Roodee at the time of writing, albeit the percentage pales in comparison to Sir Mark Prescott’s impressive 5/10 haul at Chester.
General stats: Just one of the first three favourites won on last year’s card but far worse was to follow because in keeping with other results up and down the country during the corresponding period, the last five winners were sent off at 14/1-12/1-12/1-11/1-9/1.
General stats: Richard Hannon secured a 74/1 double on the second day of the meeting twelve months ago via winners at 14/1 and 4/1. Three of the eight favourites prevailed with seven winners returned at 9/1 or less.
Class 4 juvenile event for fillies over six furlongs scheduled for 1.30: Richard Hannon has won four of the last seven renewals (14/1 winner last year) and with five entries at the penultimate stage, the trainer was obviously intent on improving his ratio. Eight favourites have won via the last sixteen renewals, whilst ten market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
'Draw factor' (six furlongs):
10-2-1 (9 ran-good--latest result first)
10-4 (7 ran-good)
11-10-13 (11 ran-good to soft)
1-4-11 (10 ran-good to firm)
7-8-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
12-4-8 (15 ran-good to soft)
5-12-7 (15 ran-good to soft)
9-5-7 (11 ran-good)
3-7-10 (11 ran-good)
7-5-15 (15 ran-good to firm)
16-3-4 (15 ran-good to firm)
6-2-8 (10 ran-good to soft)
6-11-8 (11 ran-good to soft)
2-1 (7 ran-good to firm)
11-13-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
1-10-15 (21 ran-good to firm)
‘Washington Singer’ event scheduled for 2.00: John Gosden was winning the race for the third time in the last seven years 12 months ago and the trainer’s only entry earlier in the week was Excess Knowledge. Mark Johnston has saddled two gold medallists during the John’s recent reign and Steeler was the only entry from Mark’s stable at the five-day stage. Six clear market leaders and two joint favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years. Nine of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
Group 3 event thirteen furlong event scheduled for 2.30: Seven of the last twelve favourites have won whilst four-year-olds have snared four of the last seven renewals of this ‘Geoffrey Freer’ contest.
Group 2 Hungerford Stakes due to be contests at 3.05: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, though three-year-olds have won three of the last four contests. Four clear marker leaders and one joint favourite have won in the last fourteen years. Seven of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):
3-7-11 (9 ran-good)
6-9 (7 ran-good to soft)
6-4-10 (9 ran-good to firm)
4-2-6 (9 ran-good to soft)
3-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)
8-2 (7 ran-good to soft)
8-3-5 (9 ran-good)
7-11-6 (13 ran-good)
4-5-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
6-3-8 (10 ran-good to firm)
6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)
5-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-2 (7 ran-good)
4-2-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
Ten furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 4.10: Six renewals have slipped by since the last (100/30) favourite obliged though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was a 6/1 chance. The last five winners carried weights of 9-2 or more.
Lady riders finale scheduled for 4.45: We still await the first successful favourite via five renewals whilst three-year-olds have won three contests thus far. Sarah Brotherton has secured two gold, one silver and one bronze medal via her last four rides in the race and the pilot was ‘jocked aboard’ both Hamilton Hill and The Quarterjack at the time of writing!
General stats: In contrast to the rest of the week, the last three favourites (of seven) at the meeting sent the majority of punters home happy. Only Mick Channon (16/1), Tony Carroll (11/1), Mahmood Al Zarooni (8/1) and David Barron (8/1) scored on behalf of the layers.
General stats: Tim Easterby secured a 58/1 double at the meeting twelve months ago, having also saddled a 12/1 winner at Doncaster earlier in the afternoon, completing a 772/1 treble on the day.
General stats: David Simcock saddled a 30/1 at the meeting last year, whilst Roger Charlton’s 41% strike rate at the course makes for impressive reading. Having saddled four of his last eleven runners to winning effect at the time of writing, Roger could be set for another good day at ‘Leafy Lingfield’ as it used to be referred to by regulars on the ‘Victoria rattler’ in times gone by.
General stats: Tim Vaughan, Peter Bowen and David Pipe invariably saddle winners at this time of year and sure enough, each of the three trainers was in the area reserved for the winner of one race apiece on the card twelve months ago.
We've got all the key trends and stats ahead of the LIVE races at Ascot, Newmarket & Market Rasen this Saturday..... Read more
Stat of the Day: 8th July 2012
Some respite for SotD followers yesterday as Redera came home in 3rd place. He finished more than 8 lengths in front of the next horse, but he never looked like troubling the first two home. In fact, he was some 15 lengths shy of the runner-up! But as an E/W bet, we collected something and we move on to fight again!
It's all about course specialists today as we head off to rural Lincolnshire for a 2 mile, 6.5 furlong Class 4 Handicap Chase, where ten runners will do battle on the soft ground in the...
4.15 Market Rasen
As I said earlier, we're looking at course specialists today: trainer Barry Leavy's record over the last couple of years reads 11330, whilst jockey Timmy Murphy's record at the track reads 01221 and none of Mr Leavy's five runners were ridden by Mr Murphy. The fact they both have 2 winners and 2 places from 5 is purely coincidental: but the kind of thing we like here at SotD!
It will, by now, not be a surprise to hear both trainer and jockey have just one entry planned for today and that is obviously our selection for today: Kirkhammerton.
Kirkhammerton, himself, is no stranger to Market Rasen, with his own record here in the last couple of years reading 133: including a win and a place over today's chase course. Kirkhammerton was narrowly beaten by Delgany Gunner at Uttoxeter last time out, but our selection re-opposes 2lbs better off today, which should be enough to reverse that form and he's now carrying bottom weight, which looks very lenient if he can run to anything like the form he is capable of producing.
I was half tempted to suggest another E/W bet, but I think the 7/1 BOG on offer at both Ladbrokes and William Hill is very reasonable, so I have taken some of that as a win only bet. If you choose to wait or even go E/W on this one, then I recommend you...
Click here for the latest odds for the 4.15 Market Rasen.
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With just days now till the tapes go up on the 2012 Cheltenham Festival see which trainers are heading to Prestbury Park in top form. Read more
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The Betfred Cambridgeshire takes centre stage this Saturday, but did you know that 8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-2 or LESS - Great news for the well-fancied Dare To Dance (8-9),Â however, are all the trends in his favour? Andy Newton looks at ALL the Live C4 races this weekend.... Read more