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Fighting Fifth Hurdle Trends

Sponsored by leading bookmaker Betfair, the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth hurdle is staged at Newcastle racecourse.

Having first been run in 1969 the contest is often seen as an early-season trial for the Champion Hurdle, with the Nicky Henderson-trained Punjabi (2008) and Buveur D'Air (2018) the last horses to win both races in the same season.

The 2017 and 2018 Champion Hurdle winner – Buveur d’Air – landed this race in 2017 before going onto Cheltenham glory again in March 2018, while he also took the prize in 2018 and was second in 2019. 12 months ago it was another Nicky Henderson/JP McManus runner that won the race as Epatante with ease and went onto finish third in the 2021 Champion Hurdle.

Here at GEEGEEZ, we are on hand as he looks back at past winners and gives you the key trends to look out for ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 27th November.

Recent Fighting Fifth Hurdle Winners

2020 - EPATANTE (8/11 fav)
2019 – CORNERSTONE LAD (16/1)
2018 – BUVEUR D’AIR (11/8)
2017 – BUVEUR D’AIR (1/6 fav)
2016 – IRVING (6/1)
2015 – IDENTITY THIEF (6/1)
2014 – IRVING (6/4 fav)
2013 – MY TENT OR YOURS (8/11 fav)
2012 – COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (11/4)
2011 – OVERTURN (7/4)
2010 – PEDDLERS CROSS (9/4)
2009 – GO NATIVE (25/1)
2008 – PUNJABI (8/11 fav)
2007 – HARCHIBALD (4/1)
2006 – STRAW BEAR (Evs fav)
2005 – ARCALIS (9/4 fav)
2004 – HARCHIBALD (9/4 jfav)
2003 – THE FRENCH FURZE (25/1)
2002 – INTERSKY FALCON (11/10 fav)

Fighting Fifth Hurdle Betting Trends & Stats

19/19 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
17/19 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
17/19 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
16/19 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
16/19 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
15/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Officially rated 151 or higher
13/19 – Won their last race
11/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/19 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
9/19 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/19 – Won by an Irish bred horse
5/19 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
5/19 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 of last 13)
4/19 – Won by an Irish based yard
3/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/19 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 7)
2/19 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 5/1

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

 

 

 

 

Sat TV Trends: 26th June 2021

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket, to take in three races.

Did you know - 16 of the last 19 Northumberland Plate winners were aged 6 or younger?

Plus, it’s also Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh - Here at GeeGeez we've got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)


2.05 – Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

17/18 – Never raced at the track before
16/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
14/18 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
11/18 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
10/18 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/18 – Came from stall 4 or lower
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/18 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
7 of the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

 

2.40 - Close Brothers Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

9/10 - Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 - Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/10 - Had won over at least 1m4f before
8/10 - Won 3 or more times
8/10 - Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
7/10 - Placed favourites
7/10 - Rated 100+
4/10 - Winning favourites
4/10 - Had run at the track before
3/10 - Ran at York last time out
3/10 - Trained by David Simcock
2/10 - Ridden by William Buick
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

3.15 – Close Brothers Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

17/19 – Won over 7f before
17/19 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
16/19 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/19 – Aged 5 or younger
12/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/19 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/19 – Came from stall 3 or lower
9/19 – Unplaced favourites
6/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 10 runnings)
2/19 - Trained by Henry Candy (last 2 runnings)
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
Limato won the race in 2019 and 2020
Sir Dancealot won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

 

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.45 - williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 6f ITV

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 - Aged between 3-6 years-old
4/4 - Had won over 6f before
4/4 - Won between 2-5 times
4/4 - Carried 9-2 or more in weight
3/4 - Returned between 15/2 or shorter
3/4 - Drawn in stalls 10 or higher
3/4 - Placed favourites
3/4 - Rated between 97 and 99 (inc)
3/4 - Unplaced last time out
3/4 - Had run at the track before
2/4 - Came from stalls 10
0/4 - Winning favourites
Staxton won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 10/1

 


2.20 – William Hill
Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

18/19 – Had won over 6f before
17/19 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Unplaced last time out
14/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
12/19 – Yet to win a Group race
11/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/19 – Aged 5 or older
8/19 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/19 – Had run at Newcastle before
2/19 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/19 – Won last time out
Judicial (9/1) won the race in 2020
12 of the last 18 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

 

2.55 - William Hill Pick Your Places Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

Five previous runnings
Mondain won the race in 2020
Cosmeli won the race in 2018
5/5 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
5/5 – Ran in the last 2 months
5/5 - Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
4/5 - Won over at least 1m6f in the past
4/5 - Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Winners came from stalls 11-19 (inc)
3/5 - Won over 2m (flat) in the past
3/5 - Winning favourites
2/5 – Won last time out
2/5 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 9/1

 

3.30 – William Hill Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

18/19  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
18/19 – Finished fifth or better last time out
16/19 – Came from stall 14 or lower
16/19 – Aged 6 or younger
15/19 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
15/19 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
11/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/19 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
7/19 – Won by a National Hunt yard
5/19 – Won their previous race
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 13 winners)
3/19 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/19 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/19 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 6)
1/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 12.5/1
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

 

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 15 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Ten winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 4 of the last 9
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

 

 

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (Ire)


3.45 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Colts and Fillies) (3yo) 1m4f

 

18/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
16/18 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
14/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Won a Group race before
14/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/18 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
13/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/18 – Failed to win their last race
12/18 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
12/18 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
11/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won the race 14 times in total)
7/18 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/18 – Previous Group 1 winners
4/18 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
Ryan Moore has NEVER won the Irish Derby
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 6/1

 

 

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Eider Chase Trends

The Eider Chase is run over a gruelling 4m1f trip at Newcastle racecourse and is a handicap race that is seen as another key Grand National trial ahead of the big Liverpool race the following month. In recent years the David Pipe-trained Comply Or Die (2008) is the most recent example of the winner of this race going onto land the Merseyside Marathon that same season.

Did You Know – 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 10 or younger, while 11 of the last 16 successful horses were Irish bred.

Here at GEEGEEZ we take a look back at recent winners and give you all the key trends and stats to take into the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 27th February.

 

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Recent Eider Chase Winners

2020 - No Race
2019 – CROSSPARK (12/1)
2018 – BAYWING (8/1)
2017 - BAYWING (8/1)
2017 – MYSTEREE (10/1)
2016 – ROCKING BLUES  (8/1)
2015 – MILBOROUGH (18/1)
2014 – WYCK HILL (9/1)
2013 – No Race
2012 – PORTRAIT KING (11/4fav)
2011 – COMPANERO (16/1)
2010 – No Race
2009 – MERIGO (5/1)
2008 – COMPLY OR DIE (11/1)
2007 – NIL DESPERANDUM (6/1)
2006 – PHILSON RUN (10/1)
2005 – No Race
2004 – TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN (28/1)
2003 – No Race
2002 – THIS IS SERIOUS (4/1 fav)
2001 – NARROW WATER (6/1)
2000 -  SCOTTON GREEN (8/1)

 

Key Eider Chase Betting Trends

16/16 – Had won over at least 3m before
14/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/16 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Irish-bred
11/16 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Officially rated between 131-140
10/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/16 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
Crosspark (12/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1

 

 

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