Tag Archive for: newcastle horse racing tips and trends

Sat TV Trends: 21st Feb 2026

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This weekend the ITV cameras head to Kempton, with the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase their feature contest, while they are also at Lingfield for the Winter Derby and at Newcastle for their Eider Chase.

Here at GeeGeez we are on hand with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV  races.

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

1:10 - Ladbrokes 'New Horse Racing Bet Builder' Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (4yo+ 0-140) 2m5f ITV4

10/10 – Aged between 5-7
7/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter
7/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Carried 11-1 or more
7/10 – Won 1-2 times hurdles
7/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Aged 6 or 7
5/10 – Winning distance – neck
5/10 – Aged 6 years-old
4/10 – Won over hurdles at Kempton
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/10 – Trained by Gary Moore (2 of the last 3)
2/10 – Ridden by Caoilin Quinn (2 of the last 3)
2025: Saint Alapolino (5/1)

1:45 – Ladbrokes Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

18/20 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 - Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
17/20 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
15/20 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
15/20 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/20 – Placed favourites
13/20 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
12/20– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
11/20 – Won last time out
10/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – French bred
6/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (6 in total)
5/20 – Irish bred
4/20 – Trained by Alan King (won 3 of last 9 runnings)
4/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 in total)
3/20 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
2025: Mambonumberfive (10/1)

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

2:25 – Ladbrokes Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

18/20 – French or Irish bred
16/20 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
15/20 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
15/20 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
14/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/20 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
13/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 9 of the last 15 and 14 in total)
12/20 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/20 – Winning favourites
8/20 – Won last time out
Harry Cobden has ridden 4 of the last 5 winners
Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden 2 of the last 11 winners
4 of the last 8 winners owned by Johnny de la Hey
Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times (but the most recent was in 2004)
Captain Chris was the last winner to land the Arkle Challenge Trophy (2011)
2025: Rubaud (5/4 fav)

3:00 – Ladbrokes Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

18/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
18/19 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
16/19 – Returned a single-figure price in the betting
16/19 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
16/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/19 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
12/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old (but last 11 aged 5 or 6)
11/19 – Won last time out
7/19 – French bred
6/19 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Trained by Alan King
4/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of the last 11) (8 in total)
4/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 7)
2/19 – Trained by Chris Gordon (2 of the last 6)
The last 11 winners aged 5 or 6 years-old
The last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter (9 returned 4/1 or shorter)
2025: Tripoli Flyer (5/2)

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

3:35 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV

20/23 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
20/23 – Aged 9 or younger
17/23 – Rated 139 or higher
17/23 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
17/23 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
15/23 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
15/23 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
14/23 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
13/23 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/23 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/23 – Rated between 139 and 150
9/23 – Carried 11-5 or more
9/23 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/23 – Won last time out
8/23 – Aged 8 years-old
7/23 – French bred
5/23 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
5/23 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/23 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/23 – Trained by Tom George
3/23 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/23 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/23 – Trained by the Sam Thomas yard (won 2 of the last 3)
2/23 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 9)
2/23 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (won 2 of the last 10)
2/23 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard (won it 4 times in all)
2/23 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-8 or less
The average winning SP in the last 23 runnings is 9/1
2025: Katate Dori (11/2)
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

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Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

2:43 – Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Eider Handicap Chase Cl2 4m1f ITV4

20/21 – Had won over at least 3m before
19/21 – Aged 10 or younger
17/21 – Carried 10-13 or more
17/21 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
17/21 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/21 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
15/21 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/21 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
14/21 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
13/21 – Officially rated between 131-140
13/21 – Irish-bred
11/21 – Placed favourites
7/21 – Won last time out
5/21 – Won over 3m4f or further before
4/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/21 – Trained by Brian Ellison (2 of the last 5)
2/21 - Trained by Christian Williams (2 of the last 4)
2/21 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 10 winners aged 9 years-old
6 of the last 8 winners 11st+
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 10/1
2025: Knockanore (16/1)

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV) 

1:25 – Midnite Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

14/18 – Rated 96+
14/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/18 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
12/18 – Placed favs
11/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/18 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
6/18 – Mare winners
5/18 – Winning favourites (2 in the last 11)
4/18 – US bred
1/18 – Winners from stall 1
4 of the last 10 winners from stall 2
8 of the last 10 winners from stalls 1-5
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 2 (4) or 5 (3)
10 of the last 11 winners ALL aged between 4-6
Diligent Harry won the race in 2024
2025: Clarendon House (13/2)

Note: Previous runnings from 2023 back were staged at Lingfield

2:00 – Midnite Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

19/23 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
19/23 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
19/23 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
18/23 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
17/23 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
17/23 – Came from the top 3 in the market
16/23 – Had raced at either Lingfield (12) or Kempton (4) last time out
15/23 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/23 – Placed in their last race
13/23 – Winning distance – less than a length
12/23 – Won their last race
10/23– Won at least 6 times previously
10/23 – Winning favourites
4/23 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of the last 7 runnings)
Just 2 of the last 19 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 23 renewals is 5/1
Military Order won the race in 2024
2025: Royal Champion (6/4 jfav
Note: Previous runnings from 2023 back were staged at Lingfield

 

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2025 Fighting Fifth Hurdle Trends

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Sponsored by leading bookmaker BetMGM the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth hurdle is staged at Newcastle racecourse.

Having first been run in 1969 the contest is often seen as an early-season trial for the Champion Hurdle, with the Nicky Henderson-trained Punjabi (2008) and Buveur D'Air (2018) the last horses to win both races in the same season.

The 2017 and 2018 Champion Hurdle winner – Buveur d’Air – landed this race in 2017 before going onto Cheltenham glory again in March 2018, while he also took the prize in 2018 and was second in 2019.

In 2022 we saw the exciting Constitution Hill romp to victory by 12 lengths - beating the two-time past winner Epatante, before going onto win the Champion Hurdle later that season.

While last season in 2024 the Nicky Henderson-trained Sir Gino landed the spoils with ease.

Here at GEEGEEZ, we are on hand as we look back at past winners and highlight the key trends to look out for ahead of the 2025 renewal – this year run on Saturday 29th November.

Recent Fighting Fifth Hurdle Winners

2024 - SIR GINO (6/5 jfav)
2023 - NOT SO SLEEPY (9/1)
2022 – CONSTITUTION HILL (1/4 fav)
2021 – EPATANTE (11/8) / NOT SO SLEEPY (18/1), Dead heat
2020 - EPATANTE (8/11 fav)
2019 – CORNERSTONE LAD (16/1)
2018 – BUVEUR D’AIR (11/8)
2017 – BUVEUR D’AIR (1/6 fav)
2016 – IRVING (6/1)
2015 – IDENTITY THIEF (6/1)
2014 – IRVING (6/4 fav)
2013 – MY TENT OR YOURS (8/11 fav)
2012 – COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (11/4)
2011 – OVERTURN (7/4)
2010 – PEDDLERS CROSS (9/4)
2009 – GO NATIVE (25/1)
2008 – PUNJABI (8/11 fav)
2007 – HARCHIBALD (4/1)
2006 – STRAW BEAR (Evs fav)
2005 – ARCALIS (9/4 fav)
2004 – HARCHIBALD (9/4 jfav)
2003 – THE FRENCH FURZE (25/1)
2002 – INTERSKY FALCON (11/10 fav)

Note: The 2023 running was staged at Sandown Park.

Fighting Fifth Hurdle Betting Trends & Stats

24/24 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
21/24 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
20/24 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
20/24 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
19/24 – Placed favourites
19/24 – Officially rated 151 or higher
15/24 – Won their last race
13/24 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/24 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
8/24 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (8 of last 17) (9 wins in total)
7/24 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
6/24 – Won by an Irish bred horse
5/24 – Won by a previous winner of the race
4/24 – Won by an Irish based yard
2/24 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 11)
The average winning SP in the last 24 runnings is 5/1

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

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Sat TV Trends: 26th June 2021

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The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket, to take in three races.

Did you know - 16 of the last 19 Northumberland Plate winners were aged 6 or younger?

Plus, it’s also Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh - Here at GeeGeez we've got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)


2.05 – Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

17/18 – Never raced at the track before
16/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
14/18 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
11/18 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
10/18 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/18 – Came from stall 4 or lower
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/18 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
7 of the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

 

2.40 - Close Brothers Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

9/10 - Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 - Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/10 - Had won over at least 1m4f before
8/10 - Won 3 or more times
8/10 - Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
7/10 - Placed favourites
7/10 - Rated 100+
4/10 - Winning favourites
4/10 - Had run at the track before
3/10 - Ran at York last time out
3/10 - Trained by David Simcock
2/10 - Ridden by William Buick
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

3.15 – Close Brothers Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

17/19 – Won over 7f before
17/19 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
16/19 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/19 – Aged 5 or younger
12/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/19 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/19 – Came from stall 3 or lower
9/19 – Unplaced favourites
6/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 10 runnings)
2/19 - Trained by Henry Candy (last 2 runnings)
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
Limato won the race in 2019 and 2020
Sir Dancealot won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

 

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.45 - williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 6f ITV

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 - Aged between 3-6 years-old
4/4 - Had won over 6f before
4/4 - Won between 2-5 times
4/4 - Carried 9-2 or more in weight
3/4 - Returned between 15/2 or shorter
3/4 - Drawn in stalls 10 or higher
3/4 - Placed favourites
3/4 - Rated between 97 and 99 (inc)
3/4 - Unplaced last time out
3/4 - Had run at the track before
2/4 - Came from stalls 10
0/4 - Winning favourites
Staxton won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 10/1

 


2.20 – William Hill Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

18/19 – Had won over 6f before
17/19 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Unplaced last time out
14/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
12/19 – Yet to win a Group race
11/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/19 – Aged 5 or older
8/19 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/19 – Had run at Newcastle before
2/19 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/19 – Won last time out
Judicial (9/1) won the race in 2020
12 of the last 18 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

 

2.55 - William Hill Pick Your Places Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

Five previous runnings
Mondain won the race in 2020
Cosmeli won the race in 2018
5/5 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
5/5 – Ran in the last 2 months
5/5 - Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
4/5 - Won over at least 1m6f in the past
4/5 - Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Winners came from stalls 11-19 (inc)
3/5 - Won over 2m (flat) in the past
3/5 - Winning favourites
2/5 – Won last time out
2/5 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 9/1

 

3.30 – William Hill Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

18/19  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
18/19 – Finished fifth or better last time out
16/19 – Came from stall 14 or lower
16/19 – Aged 6 or younger
15/19 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
15/19 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
11/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/19 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
7/19 – Won by a National Hunt yard
5/19 – Won their previous race
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 13 winners)
3/19 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/19 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/19 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 6)
1/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 12.5/1
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

 

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 15 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Ten winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 4 of the last 9
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

 

 

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (Ire)


3.45 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Colts and Fillies) (3yo) 1m4f

 

18/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
16/18 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
14/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Won a Group race before
14/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/18 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
13/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/18 – Failed to win their last race
12/18 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
12/18 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
11/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won the race 14 times in total)
7/18 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/18 – Previous Group 1 winners
4/18 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
Ryan Moore has NEVER won the Irish Derby
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 6/1

 

 

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