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Stat of the Day, 19th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

2.45 Ayr : Nomadic Empire @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Prominent, ridden to challenge over 1f out, ran on well final furlong but beaten by half a length)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £3,165 to the winner... 

Why?...

Having lost out narrowly on successive days up at Ayr, I was sorely tempted to try again with Thursday's pick being turned back out again, but this 8yr old gelding then caught my eye, so it's chasing in Devon instead.

Our boy's overall career record of 2 from 26 isn't the most inspiring, but he has finished 151 in the three contests where he has worn a visor in a field of 8-1 runners at a trip beyond three miles. These include 2 from 2 in September/October, 1 from 2 under today's jockey David Noonan and 1 from 1 here at Newton Abbot, acquired in a course and distance success here last time out, eleven days ago.

That C&D win was what piqued my interest, because I remembered that Newton Abbot is one of a handful of courses where I look out for LTO C&D winners as since the start of 2017, such runners are 15 from 47 (31.9% SR) for 9.3pts (+19.8% ROI) profit at this venue and these include of relevance today...

  • 14/38 (36.8%) for 15.9pts (+41.9%) from males
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 18.8pts (+57%) in fields of 5-9 runners
  • 8/14 (57.1%) for 11.6pts (+82.9%) at 6-15 dslr
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 2.95pts (+15.5%) over fences
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 2.93pts (+48.8%) over this 3m2f course and distance

...whilst males + 5-9 runners + 6-15 dslr = 6/8 (75% SR) for 13.56pts (+169.5% ROI) inc 4 from 5 (80%) for 9.62pts (+192.4%) over fences and 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.41pts (+47.1%) over this 3m2f trip : all over fences.

I could stop there, but I just couldn't put up a son of Midnight Legend with out referring to (as many long-standing readers will know!) one of my all-time favourite NH sires, who sadly is no longer with us, but his offspring continue to win races. I have a plethora of angles relating to Midnight Legend progeny, so here's one for today's contest...

...in hcp chases over 3m1.5f to 3m2f since the start of 2017, they are 17 from 70 (24.3% SR) for 20.63pts (+29.5% ROI), from which they are...

  • 14/37 (37.8%) for 39pts (+105.3%) at the age of 8 or 9
  • 13/51 (25.5%) for 15pts (+29.4%) from males
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 25.3pts (+97.4%) with 8/9 yr old males
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 2.5pts (+19%) here at Newton Abbot
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 5.5pts (+68.7%) from males here at N.A.
  • 3/6 (50%) for 5.7pts (+94.8%) from 8/9 yo here at N.A.
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 5.7pts (+142.9%) from 8/9 yo males here at Newton Abbot

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.35am Saturday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.20 Leicester : Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by vet : heat in leg)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 11-runner, Class 5,  Mares Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m1f on Good ground worth £3,249 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start, as is often the case with the visual clues on the racecard...

...which tells us that we have an LTO winner who has won over course and distance (also LTO) and is top ranked on the Geegeez Speed ratings and will be ridden by a top jockey who has a good record at this venue.

I'm not going too deep into the ratings issue, as I'm not privy to how they are calculated, but I'd just say that the name "Speed" can be misleading, they're more of a neural rating taking the specific race into account, so they do still have merit beyond a 6f sprint!

As for jockey Richard Johnson, no surprises to see him have the C1 and C5 icons next to his name, courtesy of 21.4% and 19.5% strike rates respectively. He's a top jockey and as such is often over-bet, so whilst he wins his fair share here in Devon, one needs to be selective about the ones backed.

If I didn't want to pick his rides on a race by race basis, I'd focus on the lower end ie Class 5 & 6, where I feel the top jockeys earn their money by getting that little bit more out of average horses. Following Dicky on these lower grade runners since 2015 would give you this...

...numbers we can live with!

Finally for this morning, I want to look at the chances of our pick winning back to back course and distance contests after just a short break and I'm heartened by the fact that since 2015, horses turned back out at odds of 7/1 and shorter here at Newton Abbot less than three weeks after a course and distance win are...

...not the biggest sample size, but a near-41% strike rate yielding over 83p profit from £1 staked isn't to be dismissed lightly and despite only having 27 qualifiers in the 2015-20 timeframe, the following snippets are of relevance today...

  • 11/23 (47.8%) for 26.47pts (+115.1%) in fields of 5-12 runners
  • 9/18 (50%) for 27.75pts (+151.1%) off a mark raised by 6lbs or more from LTO
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 8.12pts (+42.7%) on Good ground
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 16.84pts (+93.6%) over hurdles
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 10.19pts (+59.9%) won by 4 lengths or less LTO
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 21.39pts (+152.8%) at odds of 5/2 to 7/1
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 4.74pts (+67.7%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 3/5 (60%) for 1.71pts (+34.2%) in 2020
  • 2/5 (40%) for 7.39pts (+147.8%) from female runners
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 4pts (+80%) in September...

...whilst hurdlers in 5-12 runner contests off marks 6lbs or more higher than an LTO C&D win by 0-4 lengths are 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 13.15pts (+187.9% ROI)...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!