Tag Archive for: Newton Abbot racecourse

Tix Picks, Friday 20/09/24

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Kempton, Newbury & Newton Abbot...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And as I've not tackled an NH placepot before lets head to Newton Abbot, where the going is expected to be good for...

Leg 1 : 2.10 Newton Abbot, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m6f

This looks like a race of two halves here with Tribal Glory, Authoceltic and Shakeyourtailfeather the trio to focus on, but the market is sure to reflect that.

Tribal Glory was a runner-up on debut in a Worcester bumper in July '23 before going one better at thew same venue six weeks later. He was then rested for a year before a first crack at hurdles, finishing second here at Newton Abbot over 2m2½f, beaten by less than a length, whilst staying on well. The step up in trip shouldn't be an issue for a former Irish PTP winner either, so he's the one to beat here for me.

Shakeyourtailfeather has a bit more experience over hurdles and has run well this year. She was 4th of 14 on hurdling debut at Taunton in January, before being brought down four out at Doncaster eight weeks later. She then finished runner-up at both Class 4 and Class 3 before finishing 6th of 12 at Kelso last time out. That wasn't a bad result ast two classes higher than today and she wasn't disgraced on that handicap debut. The two horses in front of her have both made the frame since and dropping down in class and returning to maiden company, she's a threat here.

These are the two I'm playing here.

Leg 2 : 2.40 Newton Abbot, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ mares novice hurdle over 2m1f

Kitty Foyle makes a hurdling debut after a Class 4 flat handicap win at Goodwood last month, whilst Hard As Nail's hurdle form reads 32123 after two wins and a place from four bumper outings, so she shouldn't be fazed by the task in hand.

A Little Something was third of nine on her bumper debut in July and Versace Twentyone has a win and a place from two bumpers ; both make a hurdling debut today, but it's a third crack for Pure Gold, after finishing 3rd of 12 at Uttoxeter in July and then 2nd of 9 at Worcester last month.

Asian Star also makes a hurdles debut here after two bumper outings, finishing 5th of 18 at Cheltenham in mid-April and then 3rd of 13 at Southwell three weeks later. She was sent off as the 4/5 favourite that day, but went down by 6.5 lengths to 10/1 shot Gale Mahler who has since won all five subsequent starts, including a Listed race at Galway last time out.

Fergal O'Brien runs two in the race (Hard As Nails & Leloopa) and his horses have gone well here over recent years...

..and it's Hard As Nails with the best 2yr place profile...

and with front-runners/prominent runners also doing well over the years here, Hard As Nails is my main pick here. I'm sure Kitty Foyle will be very popular after her Flat win last time out, but NH form prevails for me today and I'll also go with Asian Star and Pure Gold from this one.

Leg 3 : 3.15 Newton Abbot, a 4-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ novice chase over 2m5½f

A small field, but all four come here with a few wins under their belts. At the age of ten Glynn took a while to get used to fences after making the frame in four of nine starts over hurdles and won here at Newton Abbot over 2m5f and then over 2m6½f at Stratford just five days later off a 7lbs higher mark. He's up another 3lbs here, making life more difficult.

Riskinthefground struggled at 2m7f and beyond over fences, but has dropped back in trip slightly this year winning at distances ranging from 2m4f to 2m6f, finishing 11151 in five starts this year. The only defeat came in the Class 1 Summer Plate at Market Rasen, so no disgrace there and he could be the one to beat here.

Lallygag has been in great form over hurdles of late, finishing 32O11 in his last five starts and it is hoped that this recent form can be translated to fences, as he reverts back to the bigger obstacles for the first time since December 2023 when he was disappointing in both attempts.

Secret Trix makes a chasing debut after being in consistently good form over hurdles for nearly two years, finishing 133111221421P with wins as high as Class 2. If he can bring anything like kind of consistency to fences, he has a great chance here.

To be honest, I'm not sure how to split this quartet and I want to get through the race still with a live bet, so it's a cautious/coward's approach to take all four ahead of hopefully easier handicap races to analyse!

Leg 4 : 3.50 Newton Abbot, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1f

Electric Eddy is our sole LTO winner, but the fast finisher United Front, Therapist and Outback Frontiers all made the frame and I wouldn't be too surprised if one or more of these made the frame again today.

Therapist actually drops in class today, so that should make her more competitive and possibly the one to beat, although as shown above Fergal O'Brien's runners go well here, which is another tick for United Front on his second handicap run.

Instant Expert also throws the hats of Pak Army and Lady Gwen into the mix...

...whilst the pace data points towards Pak Army, United Front and Electric Eddy from those we've already highlighted.

And with Therapist being the one I thought might be the one to beat, I need to get rid of at least one of them and that's going to be Pak Army, based purely on his recent form not being as good as the others and the fact that his jockey has yet to win a race. So, it's United Front, Therapist & Electric Eddy for me.

Leg 5 : 4.25 Newton Abbot, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1f

My initial thoughts were that this might boil down to the likes of Colonel Lesley, Karannelle, Addosh and possibly Juggernaut, but that's neither a definitive nor exhaustive list! None of the field won last time out, but course and distance winner Colonel Lesley was a runner-up for a sixth top three finish (inc 2 wins) from his last eight starts and fellow course and distance winner Karannelle is 1533 in his last four, finishing 133 here at Newton Abbot over trips of 2m1f to 2m3f, whilst he hails from a yard with a good record of making the frame at this track...

Instant Expert also steers us back to Colonel Lesley...

As with the race above (Div 1 of the same race), a prominent racing position would be ideal, but there's not actually a great deal of pace on offer here, as shown by the top three in the averages...

...but Juggernaut might be afforded an easy early lead which could be enough to keep them in the frame.

Karannelle, Juggernaut & Colonel Lesley it is, then!

Leg 6 : 4.55 Newton Abbot, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m6f

And we conclude with what should be on paper the best of the six races that features three LTO winners in the shape of Finisk River, Wonderful Eagle and Melton Mossy and all three are in the bottom half of the weights along with Clearance who has finished third in each of his last two starts, both on this track and he, like Finisk River, drops in class today.

Wonderful Eagle is the only runner to have won over course and distance and after wins on both A/W and Flat tracks, he returns to hurdling where he has two wins and a place from five starts, but he does seem to be playing second/third fiddle in Instant Expert, as both Finisk River and Clearance have eye-catching place stats...

...but Wonderful Eagle does seem well suited by the pace profile on a track where prominence has paid off...

...and I'm going to stick with the lower half of the card and take Finisk River, Clearance and Wonderful Eagle.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 6

Leg 2: horses 1, 3 & 10

Leg 3: horses 1, 2, 3 & 4

Leg 4: horses 3, 4 & 6

Leg 5: horses 5, 6 & 8

Leg 6: horses 5, 6 & 7

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Racing Insights, Monday 11/09/23

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.55 Brighton
  • 3.55 Galway
  • 4.30 Galway
  • 5.00 Newton Abbot

I don't particularly like either of the two UK races above, so I'll be taking a look at the day's highest rated race, the sole Class 2 contest in the UK, the 4.25 Newton Abbot. This is an 8-runner handicap hurdle for 4yr olds and older and the trip is a left-handed 3m2½f on good/good to soft ground...

Go Chique was a winner last time out (and is 2 from 5) and Slate Lane comes here seeking a hat-trick after winning both his UK starts despite showing little in Ireland. Mr Yeats has been the runner-up in each of his last four, whilst Tommie Beau has won two from four. Sammylou looks weak on the back of six straight losses.

Only Mr Yeats (now visored for the first time) and Valentino ran in this grade last time, although the latter hasn't raced for ten months with Tommie Beau and Hunting Percival both now stepping up a level. Go Chique, Presenting Yeats and Sammylou are all up two classes, whilst Slate Lane's win at Bangor last month was at Class 5, although he did win at Class 4 two starts ago. This will be his second effort in handicap company after winning on debut at Bangorand he's up in trip and weight here.

Aside from Valentino's ten month absence, the field have all raced in the last five weeks or so and Slate Lane is the only one yet to win at a similar trip to this one. Mr Yeats, Valentino and Presenting Yeats and Sammylou have all won over this type of trip here at Newton Abbot already, whilst Tommie Beau has won a 3m2f chase here as recently as the end of May.

Much of the above and more is covered by Instant Expert, of course...

...where the win stats show Tommie Beau in the best light, whilst Presenting Yeats looks weakest. We can't however ignore the fact that the latter is now rated 16lbs higher than his last hurdle win, but in his defence, that was back in May 2022 and he's been chasing mainly since then and did win over fences off 127 in June! Slate Lane and Mr Yeats are also both considerably higher in the weights than their last hurdles successes. Aside from Presenting Yeats generally weak stats, there aren't too many negatives on those win percentages and if you're an E/W or place punter, the place data suggests Mr Yeats might well be of interest to you...

Today's free feature is the pace element of the racecard and this shows how the field have approached their most recent outings. They are awarded a score of 4 if they led, 3 for a prominent position, 2 for racing in mid-division and 1 for a hold-up run and this group's most recent efforts look like this...

...with top weight and sole mare, Go Chique expected to set the pace with Sammylou a confirmed hold-up type. Presenting Yeats' pace stats are a little misleading though. He has a 4 from LTO, but 3 x 1's before that, so let me briefly explain that he is a front-runner, but is often reluctant to race. So, if he gets away with the others (which he doesn't often enough), he'll probably head the filed early, but the stats suggest he'll miss the break and be slow away, which according to our Pace Analyser could be the end of his chances here...

Summary

My shortlist for the contest doesn't totally tie in with the early market, but that doesn't worry too much, they can't be right all the time!

If I was to split the field in half, I'd want to be siding with (in alphabetical order) Go Chique, Mr Yeats, Slate Lane and Tommie Beau and this quartet are currently (3.20pm on Sunday!) priced at 11/1, 8/1, 4/9 fav and 18/1 respectively and based on his last two runs, Slate Lane is probably the one to beat.

He is however, up in trip by 3f, up three classes and up 10lbs and that doesn't scream 4/9 fav to me, especially when the next in the market is 8/1! I'm not saying he can't/won't win, but I can't be backing him at those odds.

I am, however interested in the other three and I think their prices offer us a good chance of some E/W success with Tommie Beau in particular looking overpriced.



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Racing Insights, Wednesday 14/06/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.40 Newton Abbot
  • 4.10 Newton Abbot
  • 4.50 Haydock
  • 5.00 Yarmouth
  • 8.30 Limerick

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and the first of the two jumps contests looks the best on paper of all the featured races, so we're off to Devon for the 3.40 Newton Abbot, a 7-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m½f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

Top weight Light n Strike and bottom weight Elios D'or both won last time out, Clear The Runway has won five of his last six, but Geronimo's apparent good run of results all came in 2 and 3-runner races! Kauto The King won this race last year and won again next time out, but hasn't won any of seven since.

Geronimo is up a level here, as is Elios D'or and whilst it looks like Noahthirtytwored is up three classes here, that's from an A/W outing, but he's still up two grades here, as is Kauto the King, whilst Magic Saint really is up three classes.

Last year's winner Kauto The King wears cheekpieces for the first-time and it's a debut in blinkers for Magic Saint today in a field where all seven have already won over a similar trip and Noahthirtytwored joins Kauto The King as a course and distance winner.

Most of these have raced in the last three weeks, but it's five weeks rest for Geronimo which shouldn't be an issue, but Clear The Runway might well need the run on his first outing for almost eight months.

Instant Expert's NH stats say that all bar one have already won a chase on similar going to today and that four of the field are previous Class 2 chase winners...

...and this points towards Light n Strike, Clear The Runway, Geronimo and Kauto The King has being best suited to the task, whilst the place stats bring Elios D'or into the equation...

I wouldn't rule any of them out just on those two graphics, but I want to look at a couple of interesting weight differences. Magic Saint did indeed win a Class 2 handicap chase off 152 at Cheltenham back in November 2020 and was plying his trade at Gr 3 until Jan '22 before he went hunter chasing this year. He did win off 137 in March, so is still technically 10lbs below his last win. As for Noahthirtytwored, he did win relatively recently off 109 and the subsequent 13lb rise seems excessive.

Kauto The King won this last year and the report of the race reads..."raced in 3rd, awkward and pushed along after 9th, went 2nd 4 out, ridden before 2 out, led last, driven out to win by 1.5 lengths"... which is pretty congruent with what our Pace Analysis suggests...

Those racing furthest forward have the best chances of winning/placing and those chances diminish more the further down the field you position yourself, which might not be the best news for the likes of Noahthirtytwored...

...although he did lead last time out.

Summary

If truth be told, there's no real standout performer here and it might well be a process of elimination.

From the racecard, I've doubts about Magic Saint, Noahthirtytwored and Kauto the King stepping up two classes or more after defeats. Clear The Runway might need a run and was well beaten last time out. Geronimo's better runs have come in really small fields and Kauto The King is winless in seven.

Instant Expert wasn't great for Magic Saint, Noahthirtytwored and Elios D'or as potential winners, although the latter has good place numbers. Noahthirtytwored also seemed up against it on weight, but Magic Saint has won off far higher marks than this one.

And when it came to pace, none of them are out and out hold up types, so I wouldn't actually be too concerned about any of them from that perspective.

Now I've written the above, the only one I've no real qualms with looks like top weight and LTO winner Light n Strike, which is probably why he's the 5/2 favourite here. The others with fewer red marks by their names on my jotter are Geronimo and Elios D'Or and one of those pair might well make the frame too. The former will be more attractively priced, of course, but the latter is a regular placer. Elsewhere, Magic Saint would be a huge danger if running to the levels he's capable of, but something just doesn't seem right with him.



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/05/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.35 York
  • 4.20 Newton Abbot
  • 5.40 Bath
  • 6.20 Cork
  • 8.10 Bath
  • 8.30 Perth

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

Depending on your viewpoint, it's unfortunate that I can't tie the 'free' races up with the daily feature or it's good news that the two have thrown up lots of races for me to look at. And being a glass half-full kind of bloke, like I'm sure you are, I'm taking it that I've got thirteen UK races listed above, from which the 3.40 York is clearly the best on paper, but has very little data for me to share with you.

So, aside from that Group 3 race I've swerved, I'm left with a host of Class 4 or worse races, but they'll all have a winner, so let's see if we can crack the most valuable of them, the 2.05 Newton Abbot, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m2½f on good to soft ground...

The two form horses here are Monjules and Inferno Sacree who are 3 from 5 and 4 from 5 respectively, whilst featured horse Polyphonic and Swinging London have both been runners-up in each of their last two starts, but the former is winless in seven now and others on losing runs are Atholl Street at eight defeats and the 12-race maiden Fongs Way, who now makes a yard debut and UK debut since a move to Jimmy Frost (who doesn't have a great record here!).

Elsewhere Polyphonic makes just a second handicap appearance and Swinging London is in first-time cheekpieces. Top weight The Pink'n is down a class here, as are the in-form Inferno Sacree and the cold Atholl Street, but our other form horse, Monjules is up two grades here from a Flat outing but his last effort over hurdles was in this grade. He's one of just four to have won at a similar trip to this one, along with Polyphonic, Inferno Sacree (almost inevitably) and The Pink'n, who is also our only previous course winner, courtesy of a Class 3, 2m1f hurdle success almost 4 yrs ago.

Swinging London returns from a short eight-week break, but all of his rivals have raced in the last month, except Fongs Way, who hasn't been seen since he was pulled up at Cork five months ago. Other stats, taken from Instant Expert, show that just four of this field have won a NH race on good to soft ground and that five of them are previous Class 4 winners...

Not a great deal to shout about here, but Monjules, Inferno Sacree & Polyphonic do spark a little interest but Swinging London looks like he might struggle and The Plimsoll Line has toiled at this level. Place stats...

...are more encouraging for a decent Class 4 battle with so many of this field having good place numbers, but Inferno Sacree is a glaring exception, although he did win at Class 3 last time out. Winless in six efforts at this level, Swinging London has consistently made the frame, only missing out once, so he might well be a place option again here.

Pace data from past races here at Newton Abbot suggest that the further forward a horse races, the better its chances of winning...

...and this is sure to suit the front-running Inferno Sacree, based on his recent efforts...

Summary

Aside from having failed to make the frame in five previous runs at this level, Inferno Sacree ticks all the boxes for me here today. He's in great form, he won at a higher class last time out and now drops down again. Yes, he's up in the weights again, but he's won four of his last five with winning margins of 20, 5.5, 9.5 and 8.5 lengths, so will take some stopping. He has won at this trip, he has won on good to soft and is likely to lead on a front-runners' track. He's generally available at 9/2, which is more than fair.

Elsewhere, the other market principals, Monjules (3/1), Swinging London (4/1) and Polyphonic (4/1) should all run their races and end up there or thereabouts, but pace/form suggests Monjules should win that particular battle. I don't really have an E/W play here, as I thought The Pink'n was the best of those priced at 8's or bigger, but I'd want more than 8/1 for him from a hold-up position. The Plimsoll Line has an outside chance of hanging on to a place in the capable hands of Rex Dingle, but again I'd want more than 8's about him.

So for me, it's Inferno Sacree to make all and beat the chasing Monjules with Swinging London and Polyphonic battling to rein The Plimsoll Line in.

 



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns