Tix Picks, Friday 20/09/24

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Kempton, Newbury & Newton Abbot...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And as I've not tackled an NH placepot before lets head to Newton Abbot, where the going is expected to be good for...

Leg 1 : 2.10 Newton Abbot, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m6f

This looks like a race of two halves here with Tribal Glory, Authoceltic and Shakeyourtailfeather the trio to focus on, but the market is sure to reflect that.

Tribal Glory was a runner-up on debut in a Worcester bumper in July '23 before going one better at thew same venue six weeks later. He was then rested for a year before a first crack at hurdles, finishing second here at Newton Abbot over 2m2½f, beaten by less than a length, whilst staying on well. The step up in trip shouldn't be an issue for a former Irish PTP winner either, so he's the one to beat here for me.

Shakeyourtailfeather has a bit more experience over hurdles and has run well this year. She was 4th of 14 on hurdling debut at Taunton in January, before being brought down four out at Doncaster eight weeks later. She then finished runner-up at both Class 4 and Class 3 before finishing 6th of 12 at Kelso last time out. That wasn't a bad result ast two classes higher than today and she wasn't disgraced on that handicap debut. The two horses in front of her have both made the frame since and dropping down in class and returning to maiden company, she's a threat here.

These are the two I'm playing here.

Leg 2 : 2.40 Newton Abbot, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ mares novice hurdle over 2m1f

Kitty Foyle makes a hurdling debut after a Class 4 flat handicap win at Goodwood last month, whilst Hard As Nail's hurdle form reads 32123 after two wins and a place from four bumper outings, so she shouldn't be fazed by the task in hand.

A Little Something was third of nine on her bumper debut in July and Versace Twentyone has a win and a place from two bumpers ; both make a hurdling debut today, but it's a third crack for Pure Gold, after finishing 3rd of 12 at Uttoxeter in July and then 2nd of 9 at Worcester last month.

Asian Star also makes a hurdles debut here after two bumper outings, finishing 5th of 18 at Cheltenham in mid-April and then 3rd of 13 at Southwell three weeks later. She was sent off as the 4/5 favourite that day, but went down by 6.5 lengths to 10/1 shot Gale Mahler who has since won all five subsequent starts, including a Listed race at Galway last time out.

Fergal O'Brien runs two in the race (Hard As Nails & Leloopa) and his horses have gone well here over recent years...

..and it's Hard As Nails with the best 2yr place profile...

and with front-runners/prominent runners also doing well over the years here, Hard As Nails is my main pick here. I'm sure Kitty Foyle will be very popular after her Flat win last time out, but NH form prevails for me today and I'll also go with Asian Star and Pure Gold from this one.

Leg 3 : 3.15 Newton Abbot, a 4-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ novice chase over 2m5½f

A small field, but all four come here with a few wins under their belts. At the age of ten Glynn took a while to get used to fences after making the frame in four of nine starts over hurdles and won here at Newton Abbot over 2m5f and then over 2m6½f at Stratford just five days later off a 7lbs higher mark. He's up another 3lbs here, making life more difficult.

Riskinthefground struggled at 2m7f and beyond over fences, but has dropped back in trip slightly this year winning at distances ranging from 2m4f to 2m6f, finishing 11151 in five starts this year. The only defeat came in the Class 1 Summer Plate at Market Rasen, so no disgrace there and he could be the one to beat here.

Lallygag has been in great form over hurdles of late, finishing 32O11 in his last five starts and it is hoped that this recent form can be translated to fences, as he reverts back to the bigger obstacles for the first time since December 2023 when he was disappointing in both attempts.

Secret Trix makes a chasing debut after being in consistently good form over hurdles for nearly two years, finishing 133111221421P with wins as high as Class 2. If he can bring anything like kind of consistency to fences, he has a great chance here.

To be honest, I'm not sure how to split this quartet and I want to get through the race still with a live bet, so it's a cautious/coward's approach to take all four ahead of hopefully easier handicap races to analyse!

Leg 4 : 3.50 Newton Abbot, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1f

Electric Eddy is our sole LTO winner, but the fast finisher United Front, Therapist and Outback Frontiers all made the frame and I wouldn't be too surprised if one or more of these made the frame again today.

Therapist actually drops in class today, so that should make her more competitive and possibly the one to beat, although as shown above Fergal O'Brien's runners go well here, which is another tick for United Front on his second handicap run.

Instant Expert also throws the hats of Pak Army and Lady Gwen into the mix...

...whilst the pace data points towards Pak Army, United Front and Electric Eddy from those we've already highlighted.

And with Therapist being the one I thought might be the one to beat, I need to get rid of at least one of them and that's going to be Pak Army, based purely on his recent form not being as good as the others and the fact that his jockey has yet to win a race. So, it's United Front, Therapist & Electric Eddy for me.

Leg 5 : 4.25 Newton Abbot, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1f

My initial thoughts were that this might boil down to the likes of Colonel Lesley, Karannelle, Addosh and possibly Juggernaut, but that's neither a definitive nor exhaustive list! None of the field won last time out, but course and distance winner Colonel Lesley was a runner-up for a sixth top three finish (inc 2 wins) from his last eight starts and fellow course and distance winner Karannelle is 1533 in his last four, finishing 133 here at Newton Abbot over trips of 2m1f to 2m3f, whilst he hails from a yard with a good record of making the frame at this track...

Instant Expert also steers us back to Colonel Lesley...

As with the race above (Div 1 of the same race), a prominent racing position would be ideal, but there's not actually a great deal of pace on offer here, as shown by the top three in the averages...

...but Juggernaut might be afforded an easy early lead which could be enough to keep them in the frame.

Karannelle, Juggernaut & Colonel Lesley it is, then!

Leg 6 : 4.55 Newton Abbot, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m6f

And we conclude with what should be on paper the best of the six races that features three LTO winners in the shape of Finisk River, Wonderful Eagle and Melton Mossy and all three are in the bottom half of the weights along with Clearance who has finished third in each of his last two starts, both on this track and he, like Finisk River, drops in class today.

Wonderful Eagle is the only runner to have won over course and distance and after wins on both A/W and Flat tracks, he returns to hurdling where he has two wins and a place from five starts, but he does seem to be playing second/third fiddle in Instant Expert, as both Finisk River and Clearance have eye-catching place stats...

...but Wonderful Eagle does seem well suited by the pace profile on a track where prominence has paid off...

...and I'm going to stick with the lower half of the card and take Finisk River, Clearance and Wonderful Eagle.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 6

Leg 2: horses 1, 3 & 10

Leg 3: horses 1, 2, 3 & 4

Leg 4: horses 3, 4 & 6

Leg 5: horses 5, 6 & 8

Leg 6: horses 5, 6 & 7

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24