Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 14/06/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

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  • 3.40 Newton Abbot
  • 4.10 Newton Abbot
  • 4.50 Haydock
  • 5.00 Yarmouth
  • 8.30 Limerick

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and the first of the two jumps contests looks the best on paper of all the featured races, so we're off to Devon for the 3.40 Newton Abbot, a 7-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m½f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

Top weight Light n Strike and bottom weight Elios D'or both won last time out, Clear The Runway has won five of his last six, but Geronimo's apparent good run of results all came in 2 and 3-runner races! Kauto The King won this race last year and won again next time out, but hasn't won any of seven since.

Geronimo is up a level here, as is Elios D'or and whilst it looks like Noahthirtytwored is up three classes here, that's from an A/W outing, but he's still up two grades here, as is Kauto the King, whilst Magic Saint really is up three classes.

Last year's winner Kauto The King wears cheekpieces for the first-time and it's a debut in blinkers for Magic Saint today in a field where all seven have already won over a similar trip and Noahthirtytwored joins Kauto The King as a course and distance winner.

Most of these have raced in the last three weeks, but it's five weeks rest for Geronimo which shouldn't be an issue, but Clear The Runway might well need the run on his first outing for almost eight months.

Instant Expert's NH stats say that all bar one have already won a chase on similar going to today and that four of the field are previous Class 2 chase winners...

...and this points towards Light n Strike, Clear The Runway, Geronimo and Kauto The King has being best suited to the task, whilst the place stats bring Elios D'or into the equation...

I wouldn't rule any of them out just on those two graphics, but I want to look at a couple of interesting weight differences. Magic Saint did indeed win a Class 2 handicap chase off 152 at Cheltenham back in November 2020 and was plying his trade at Gr 3 until Jan '22 before he went hunter chasing this year. He did win off 137 in March, so is still technically 10lbs below his last win. As for Noahthirtytwored, he did win relatively recently off 109 and the subsequent 13lb rise seems excessive.

Kauto The King won this last year and the report of the race reads..."raced in 3rd, awkward and pushed along after 9th, went 2nd 4 out, ridden before 2 out, led last, driven out to win by 1.5 lengths"... which is pretty congruent with what our Pace Analysis suggests...

Those racing furthest forward have the best chances of winning/placing and those chances diminish more the further down the field you position yourself, which might not be the best news for the likes of Noahthirtytwored...

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...although he did lead last time out.


If truth be told, there's no real standout performer here and it might well be a process of elimination.

From the racecard, I've doubts about Magic Saint, Noahthirtytwored and Kauto the King stepping up two classes or more after defeats. Clear The Runway might need a run and was well beaten last time out. Geronimo's better runs have come in really small fields and Kauto The King is winless in seven.

Instant Expert wasn't great for Magic Saint, Noahthirtytwored and Elios D'or as potential winners, although the latter has good place numbers. Noahthirtytwored also seemed up against it on weight, but Magic Saint has won off far higher marks than this one.

And when it came to pace, none of them are out and out hold up types, so I wouldn't actually be too concerned about any of them from that perspective.

Now I've written the above, the only one I've no real qualms with looks like top weight and LTO winner Light n Strike, which is probably why he's the 5/2 favourite here. The others with fewer red marks by their names on my jotter are Geronimo and Elios D'Or and one of those pair might well make the frame too. The former will be more attractively priced, of course, but the latter is a regular placer. Elsewhere, Magic Saint would be a huge danger if running to the levels he's capable of, but something just doesn't seem right with him.

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