Tag Archive for: NH jockey profiles

NH Jockey Profiles: The Younger Generation

/in /by

It is the turn of the younger up and coming riders to come under the spotlight in my series on National Hunt jockeys, writes Dave Renham. For this piece I have used a variety of data collection tools and as with the previous five pieces the profits/losses quoted are to Industry SP; I will quote Betfair SP when appropriate. I will be analysing a more recent National Hunt data set for UK racing than in the earlier articles, in this case starting from 1st Jan 2019 and running to 25th Dec 2023.

In the fifth article in the series, I highlighted Charlotte Jones and her overall record with trainer James Moffatt, so she seemed a good starting point for this one.

Charlotte Jones

Let's look firstly at her overall record in the past five years:

 

 

These stats are extremely impressive. To BSP, Jones's profits soar to £509.30. She has made a profit to SP in four of the five years, with the other one breaking even. To BSP every year has been profitable. It is worth stating that she has had some big priced winners, which naturally skews profits and returns somewhat. However, she has been profitable and consistent even when focusing on the front end of the market. The table below include results from all horses priced 6/1 or shorter broken down by year:

 

 

Every year has been profitable, and comfortably so, which considering the price bracket is very impressive. Her overall A/E index for these 6/1 or shorter runners stands at 1.54 which is outstanding.

Let me now look her record by trainer. We know her record with Moffatt is excellent, and the Cartmel-based trainer provides most of her rides. The table below compares her record with Moffatt against all other trainers combined.

 

 

On first viewing, this is some contrast. However, we need to put the ‘all other trainers’ data in more context as only five of those rides were on horses priced in single figures, and just three were in the top three in the betting. Further, there are only 35 runners compared with 301 for Moffatt.

Jones primarily rides in the north and, as stated, Cartmel is her local track. At the Lake District venue she has ridden 25 winners from 95 (SR 26.3%) for a small SP profit of £4.08 (ROI +4.3%). Hexham is a course where she has an even better record thanks to 11 wins from 31 rides (SR 35.5%) for a profit of £9.82 (ROI +31.7%).

Before moving on, Jones managed to ride five winners in a row in November 2023 – three on the 10th November and two on the 11th. Not many jockeys achieve that feat. Hopefully she will get more opportunities in the coming months and years. (STOP PRESS – the day I was writing this up, Boxing Day, Jones had two rides at Aintree for Moffatt, and both won at 13/2 and 6/1 respectively).

 

Danny McMenamin

Danny McMenamin was Champion Conditional Jockey in the 2020-21 season. He rode out his claim in February 2021 and since then he has continued to impress. Below is a breakdown of his win and each way strike rate by year:

 

 

As the graph indicates there has been no drop off since riding out his claim at the beginning of 2021, and 2023 was one of his best years. Indeed, his last six rides before Christmas produced four winners, at 9/1, 9/2, 10/11 and 5/2, and one second at 10/1.

In terms of trainers Nicky Richards provides McMenamin with the most rides, and below the table shows trainers who have used him 75 times or more since 2019:

 

 

Three of the four trainers are in the black in terms of profits, even to SP. And even the negative SP ROI with Richards goes into profit at BSP to the tune of £27.18 (ROI +10.0%). Riding for Ann Hamilton has produced some excellent results – a strike rate close to 30% is outstanding. Not only that, but considering he is 0 from 16 with horses priced 20/1 or bigger means focusing in on the rest gives 23 wins from 64 (SR 35.9%) for a profit to SP of £43.72 (ROI +68.3%); to BSP it is +£75.42 (ROI +118.5%).

In terms of courses, McMenamin has ridden at least 50 times at nine different venues. Below shows the win and each way strike rates at all of them:

 

 

As you can see, his record is consistent / similar across all of them. Hence at this early stage in his career there is no stand-out course for which to keep an eye out.

Before moving on, Danny McMenamin has a good record on clear favourites, with a  strike rate of 41.1% (62 wins from 151) for a small SP profit of £16.70 (ROI +11.1%). To BSP this improves a smidge to +£23.54 (ROI +15.8%).

 

Bryan Carver

Bryan Carver first caught my eye at the end of 2019 / beginning of 2020 when he rode six winners out of eight including an 883/1 treble at Exeter on New Year’s Day 2020. Since then, he has ridden out his claim at the beginning of April 2022 and now plies his trade mainly in the South of England, Wales, and the Midlands. Just 7% of his rides in the past five years have been in the Northern part of England or in Scotland.

The small stable of trainer Chris Honour has provided him with the most rides during the period of study and below are his stats with all trainers for whom he has had at least 50 rides:

 

 

The A/E indices are all above 1.00 which indicates value, and his record with these four trainers is better than compared with all other trainers for whom he has ridden. Combining these other trainers together gives the following figures:

 

 

I think Carver has been a little unlucky not to get a real break with one of the bigger stables since riding out his claim. Luck plays a part in any walk of life as we know; it would be a shame if Carver ends up as a journeyman type of jockey in my view.

Here are three additional stats for Carver worth sharing:

  1. When riding clear favourites he has secured 42 wins from 105 (SR 40%) for an SP profit of £8.77 (ROI +8.4%). To BSP the profits edge up to £13.88 (ROI +13.2%).
  1. He has ridden at Exeter more than anywhere else and his record there is excellent. He has had 18 winners from only 86 rides (SR 20.9%) for an SP profit of £56.75 (ROI +66%). To BSP his profits reads £80.54 (ROI +93.7%).
  1. He has a good record in races of three miles or more, performing best in these longer races compared to other distance groups as the graph below indicates:

 

 

This is an unusual jockey trend based on the stats of the jockeys analysed in previous articles. In these three-mile+ races he has secured a blind profit to SP returning 23p in the £, and his A/E index stands at a solid 1.03. One would have also made good profits betting his mounts each way in such races. It should also be noted that he made solid profits in these 3-mile+ races when focusing solely on runners from the top three in the betting market. Those figures read 25 wins from 98 (SR 25.5%) for a profit to SP of £16.19 (ROI +16.5%).

 

Rex Dingle

Rex Dingle announced himself to the racing world when winning on the 25/1 shot Indefatigable in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap hurdle at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. He is currently riding primarily for Anthony Honeyball and Chris Gordon, and let me start by looking at his overall record since the beginning of 2019:

 

 

This is a very solid record and to BSP he has made a small profit of £28.85 (ROI +2.7%).

My next port of call is splitting Dingle's win and each way stats up by year and this is shown in the graph below:

 

 

What immediately catches the eye is the dip in 2021. This coincides with when he was no longer able to claim his 3lb allowance. It had been at the end of December 2020 when he rode out his claim and clearly the next 12 months were a difficult adjustment. In fact, the start of 2021 was particularly difficult with just 7 winners from 100 rides (SR 7%) between January and April. The rest of 2021 began to show an uptick with 15 wins from 121 (SR 12.4%), while it should also be noted that the final eight months of the year saw 31% of his rides making the frame compared with just 17% during the first four months.

In terms of trainers there are three trainers apart from Honeyball for whom Rex has had at least 50 rides. The splits are shown below:

 

 

A one in five strike rate for Honeyball is impressive despite not quite getting into SP profit. His record for Paul Webber is poor, but Webber’s overall strike rate going back to 2019 is only 5.4% which helps explain Dingle’s figure.

The partnership with Honeyball has been particularly potent at Fontwell with 14 winners from 51 (SR 27.5%) for an SP profit of £5.14 (ROI +10.1%). This pairing has also performed extremely well when the horse has been clear favourite. Under these circumstances Honeyball and Dingle have combined to win 35 from 75 (SR 46.7%) for a profit to SP of £11.66 (ROI +15.6%); to BSP this increases slightly to £15.42 (ROI +20.6%).

Looking at Dingle’s record for all trainers, it is worth checking out his record in handicaps compared to non-handicaps. These results may surprise a few:

 

 

It is rare for jockeys to score more regularly in handicaps, but Dingle certainly has. The difference between the two race types is significant. While it is true that Dingle had a handicap winner priced 80/1, of all the horses priced over 25/1 in handicaps this was his only success from 58 runners. Hence when taking these bigger priced runners into account this sole winner does not skew the profit figures that much in reality. The non-handicap figures are quite poor especially the bottom line – this is very likely a function of riding for shrewd trainers who like to get their horses competitively handicapped.

 

Jonjo O’Neill, Jr.

Jonjo is the son of the trainer Jonjo O’Neill, Sr., and was the conditional Champion in the 2019/20 season. Here is his overall record since the beginning of 2019:

 

 

Jonjo Jr. has averaged nearly 400 rides a year which makes him one of the busier jockeys on the circuit. Let us see a yearly breakdown of strike rate both to win and each way:

 

 

O’Neill saw a small dip in success the year after losing his claim (2021), and since then he has nudged back up a little. As a 3lb claimer he won 20% of his races, compared with 15.6% since riding without that weight allowance.

I want to split his performance now by race type. It should be noted that he has also had two spins in hunter chases which are not shown.

 

 

A similar performance level has been achieved across the board, but his NH Flat record shows the best strike rate and a near break-even scenario at starting price. These figures are not skewed by big priced winners. For his father, the NHF strike rate hits 19.4% (26 wins from 134) with a small return of just under 8p in the £ to boot.

In terms of trainers, 72% of O’Neill, Jr. rides have been for O'Neill, Sr., and the only other significant trainer in terms of rides has been Colin Tizzard, who is now retired. His strike rate for O’Neill Senior is 17%, for all other trainers combined this drops to 12.6%.

I want to finish by looking at Jonjo Jr's course data, restricting it to courses where he has had at least 60 rides. The win strike rates are shown in the graph below.

 

 

As can be seen the performance varies markedly from course to course. Four tracks (Carlisle, Huntingdon, Southwell, and Warwick) have yielded strike rates above 22%. Of these, three have turned an SP profit – Carlisle, Huntingdon, and Warwick. Indeed, at Warwick O’Neill has been in profit in all five individual years. Hence, Warwick is a course to note whenever he has booked rides there. In contrast, six courses have seen win strike rates below 11.5%, with three of these under 7%.

O’Neill is in his mid-20s so could easily have another 20 years in the saddle. It will be interesting to see how he progresses in the years to come.

------------------

The five jockeys discussed in this piece are worth keeping a close eye on over the coming months and years. It will be interesting to see which, if any, of them will make it to the very top of the National Hunt riding tree.

- DR

 



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Jockey Profiles: Brian Hughes & Sam Twiston-Davies

/in /by

This is the fourth article in a series looking at the performance of some of top National Hunt jockeys. In this one I will be looking at Sam Twiston-Davies and Brian Hughes. Previously I've looked at:

Nico de Boinville and Harry Cobden

Harry Skelton and Sean Bowen

Rachael Blackmore, Paul Townend and Jack Kennedy

I have analysed NH data for UK racing from 1st Jan 2016 to 31st Oct 2023. The main vehicle for my data gathering has been the Geegeez Query Tool, but I have also used the Geegeez Profiler when required. All the profits/losses quoted are to Industry SP, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate. All the tables include A/E indices. In addition, when data has been pulled from the Geegeez Profiler Tool, I have also shared PRB figures (Percentage of Rivals Beaten).

Let's start with Sam Twiston-Davies.

Sam Twiston-Davies Overall Record

Let me first share Sam's overall stats by looking at his performance on every runner during the period of study:

 

 

On average Twiston-Davies rides around 650 times a year, which is much higher than any jockey I have looked at to date. His figures are reasonable, winning on roughly one in six rides, with a PRB figure of 0.56; but his A/E index is just below ‘average’ for all jockeys. Losses to SP stand at just over 21p in the £. This drops to 9p in the £ to BSP.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Year

Let's see what the yearly stats show. Here is a breakdown by both win, and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

As the graph indicates, his best two years in terms of win and each way percentage were in 2016 and 2017. This is because he was riding regularly for Paul Nicholls then and 42% of his rides in those two seasons were for the Ditcheat trainer. 2020 to 2022 showed a dip in overall performance but this year (2023) to date has been much better hitting the mid-17% mark.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Month

Here is a breakdown of his record by month using win strike rate:

 

 

August and September are the best months, while June to September are the best four. The EW (win and placed) strike rates correlate well with June to September seeing SR%s over 40% - the remaining eight months are in the 30s ranging from 31.2% to 38.3%. While it is material that field sizes are at their smalles in NH racing between May and September, concentrating on August and September, and if we focus on horses priced 11/2 or shorter, we almost get to a break-even scenario to SP: 96 wins from 311 qualifiers (SR 30.9%) for a small loss of £4.83 (ROI -1.6%). To BSP that would have turned a small profit of £17.55 (ROI + 5.6%).

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

Now a look at the results by splitting them into different price bands:

 

 

The 'evens or less' group have incurred the least losses to SP, and all other groups have seen losses (ROI) of more than 10p in the £. Horses priced in double figures look best left alone on every measure.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Distance

Moving on now to distance metrics and Sam's record at different distances. I have grouped them into the same four distance bands as in prior articles and below is a graph looking at the win and each way strike rates:

 

 

This graph shows that the shorter the distance the better for Twiston-Davies in terms of strike rate. If we look at the PRB figures (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) they correlate with the win/EW strike rates:

 

 

The two mile and shorter group have also produced the smallest losses to SP and a better A/E index of 0.90.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Race type

Next under the microscope is ST-D's record by race code/type:

 

 

The hurdle and chase results are virtually a carbon copy of each other in terms of strike rate, ROI% and A/E indices. The NH flat races show a very high A/E index, but this is not reflected in the profit/loss figures. For the record, Twiston-Davies has ridden in six hunter chases (no wins).

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Racecourse

I am now going to look at all courses where Twiston-Davies has had at least a hundred rides during the study period. The courses are split into two graphs alphabetically and the win strike rate at each course is shown:

 

 

 

There is quite a range here going from Sandown at 7.4% win rate up to Hereford at 25.6%. His record at Hereford has been excellent with decent profits to SP of £65.51 (ROI +54.1%). The A/E index stands at a very healthy 1.31 and the PRB figure is 0.61. In six of the eight years, Sam's strike rate at the track has exceeded 20% and in five of the eight he has secured a profit.

Fontwell is another course where he has performed well, showing a small blind profit. In chases at the West Sussex track, he has excelled winning 18 of 54 (SR 33.3%) for an SP profit of £19.30 (ROI +35.7%). Indeed, his last six chase rides (up to the time of writing) have been as follows:

 

 

That's six wins in a row with six different trainers!

In contrast he has struggled at Sandown and Newbury, while it has not been easy to get on the board at Aintree or Cheltenham either, though in the latter cases that is true for almost all jockeys.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Trainer

Here is a list of trainers for whom Twiston-Davies has ridden at least 80 times for during the period of study. It should be noted that he has had only two rides for Nicholls in the past 24 months.

 

 

His record for Charlie Longsdon is surprisingly poor. Only one trainer was in profit, namely Neil Mulholland, but that is entirely down to a 100/1 winner. With Sam Thomas, the Sam combo has done particularly well in chases hitting a better than 27% win rate and edging into a small profit. His record when riding for his father Nigel is not as good as I had expected with quite significant losses of 27p in the £.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Class of Race

It is time to breakdown Sam's performance now by class of race:

 

 

Class 1 races have the lowest strike rate as one might expect, while Class 3 and 4 races have produced the highest strike rates. A profit has been made in both Class 5 and 6 races, but these figures are skewed a little by a couple of big-priced winners.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Run Style

Finally on Sam T-D, let me look at his run style splits in terms of win percentages:

 

 

The usual pattern we are used to manifests once more: the nearer to the front he rides early, the better. Twiston-Davies has performed slightly better on hurdling front runners than chasing ones in terms of win percentage - 28% v 24%.

If we examine the A/E figures we can see that they correlate with the win strike rate data as the following chart shows:

 

 

The 'led' A/E index is very solid at 1.00 which suggests these runners are edging towards ‘value’. Horses that raced mid-division or further back early offered punters poor value.

Before winding up the run style stats though, let me share his record when riding the favourite:

 

 

Front-running favourites proved profitable if your crystal ball was in reliable working order, whereas held up favourites lost a whopping 31p in the £.

 

**

Brian Hughes Overall Record

It is time to switch to three-time NH Champion Jockey Brian Hughes and we'll start by looking at his record on all horses in all UK NH races:

 

 

At first glance these figures are slightly better than for Twiston-Davies and, amazingly, he has ridden around 1500 more horses. Indeed, Hughes and Twiston-Davies are the two jockeys who have ridden the most in the UK going back to 2016. Hughes tends to ply his trade mainly in the North as the pie chart below shows. It shows the percentage of rides by region:

 

 

74% of Hughes' rides have come at northern English tracks or in Scotland. He ventures south rarely with just 3% of his total rides being at southern tracks.

Now it is time to break down his data, firstly by year.

Brian Hughes Record by Year

Here is a graphical breakdown by both win, and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

As the graph shows, Hughes has managed a win strike rate of 16% or more in seven of the eight years, with the other year (2017) just below at 15.8. Overall, his performance year in year out has been quite consistent. There is a difference of only 4.4% between the highest yearly EW SR% and the lowest yearly one.

Brian Hughes Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

Let us see whether any market / price patterns can be found by breaking down his results by Starting Price bands:

 

 

The 16/1 or bigger horses look a ‘no no’, while those priced between 11/10 and 13/8 have produced the best returns; but there doesn't seem to be any SP bias going on here.

 

Brian Hughes Record by Distance

A dive next into Brian's record at different distances. I have grouped them into the same four distance bands I did earlier and am looking at the win and each way strike rates:

 

 

There does seem a clear distance bias here with the longest distance band of three miles or more performing well below the other three distance groupings. In these longer races Hughes has seen losses equating to 32p in the £, compared with the 2m1f-2m2f losses of just 9p in the £. It is time to look at the PRB figures now:

 

 

As the table shows the PRB figures correlate well with the win and each way strike rates, with performance much stronger to around two and a half miles and dropping off thereafter.

 

Brian Hughes Record by Race type

Now let's analyse Hughes' record in hurdle races, chases and in bumpers:

 

 

Chases and hurdle races offer extremely similar looking stats as far as strike rate ROI, and A/E are concerned. The results in bumpers (NH Flat) are slightly better. There is a big difference in these bumpers results when comparing male horses to female horses:

 

 

Males have outperformed females by nearly 8% in terms of strike rate, the A/E indices also strongly favour males as does the ROI%. Losses of just 8p in the £ for males compared with nearly 36p for female runners. It's hard to explain this disparity (the overall difference in bumpers is males 11.6% win and females 9.1%), and it might simply be down to a quirk of the relatively small female sample size.

Before moving on, it may or may not be worth noting that Hughes has ridden in five hunter chases, winning one.

 

Brian Hughes Record by Racecourse

Below is a table of all tracks where Hughes has had at least 100 rides. The courses are listed alphabetically:

 

 

Given his total number of rides, it should come as no surprise that Hughes has ridden over 100 times at so many different tracks. Aintree has not been a particularly successful hunting ground, nor has Haydock. Three courses have edged into a blind profit – Bangor, Southwell, and Stratford. Of those three, the Stratford stats are the most solid as Hughes has been profitable when focusing in on horses racing there that started in the top three in the betting. This subset of runners has won 25 from 87 (SR 28.7%) for a profit of £4.95 (ROI +5.7%).

The Musselburgh stats are strong, too, with a near break-even scenario. Again, focusing on horses from the top three in the betting at the Scottish track we get the following results: 80 wins from 260 rides (SR 30.8%) for a small SP profit of £7.49 (ROI +2.9%). Market Rasen and Worcester are two other venues where Hughes has made a profit with runners from the top three in the betting.

 

Brian Hughes Record by Trainer

During the period of study, Hughes has 100-plus rides with eleven trainers – one of these, Keith Dalgleish, has taken a sabbatical so here are the stats for the other ten:

 

 

Hughes is stable jockey for Donald McCain, and they have combined to hit a better than one-in-five win rate. The PRB figure of 0.60 is also noteworthy. With McCain his record has been better in hurdle races and the pair have combined to profitable effect at BSP over the smaller obstacles. There are three courses to note when Hughes is on a McCain runner – Bangor, Musselburgh, and Perth. All three have produced excellent win strike rates (27.9%, 27.2% and 32.8%), and all have provided SP profits.

Brian Ellison, James Ewart, Charlie Longsdon and Nicky Richards are four other trainers for whom he has performed well.

 

Brian Hughes Record by Class of Race

It is time to breakdown his performance now by class of race:

 

 

As we have often seen during this series, Class 1 races have produced the poorest results. Outside of the top level, Hughes has been consistent regardless of class bracket.

 

Brian Hughes Record by Run Style

The final stop is run style starting with the splits in terms of win percentages:

 

 

A near 30% strike rate on front runners continues the theme we have consistently seen throughout this series of articles. Backing all Hughes hold up runners would have set you back nearly 40p in the £.

Hughes' A/E indices by run style show a similar pattern although there is little in it between the prominent and mid-division groups:

 

 

Finally, let me share his run style win percentages when riding the favourite:

 

 

Incredibly, Hughes-ridden favourites which led have won more often than now and would have yielded a good profit if predicted pre-race. Held up jollies incurred painful losses of over 33%.

Main Takeaways

It is time to bring this fourth National Hunt jockey article to a close but before doing so, below is a table featuring some of the main takeaways to note regarding Sam Twiston-Davies and Brian Hughes. I hope I have uncovered some useful angles, both positive and negative for both jockeys.

Good luck.

- DR



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Jockey Profiles: de Boinville and Cobden

/in /by

This is the first in a new series of articles looking at the performance of some top National Hunt jockeys. In this initial offering I will be looking at Nico De Boinville and Harry Cobden. Both jockeys have the backing of huge stables with De Boinville riding primarily for Nicky Henderson and Cobden for Paul Nicholls.

I have analysed NH data for UK racing from 1st Jan 2016 to 31st Oct 2023. The main vehicle for my data gathering has been the Geegeez Query Tool, but I have also used the Geegeez Profiler. Hence all profits/losses quoted are to Industry SP, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate. All tables include A/E indices, an indicator of sustainable profitability. In addition, when data has been pulled from the Geegeez Profiler Tool, I have also shared the PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) figures.

Let’s start with De Boinville.

Nico De Boinville: Overall Record

Let me first share De Boinville’s overall stats by looking at his performance on every single runner during the period of study:

 

 

This is a very solid set of figures – a win rate of more than one win in five, and an above average A/E index of 0.92 (the figure for all jockeys stands at 0.87). Losses of 11p in the £ to SP are also better than ‘average’ and if backing to BSP you would have made a small blind profit of £142.54 (ROI +5.5%). However, he has had a BSP winner at 130.0 which essentially is the reason for the + figure.

Nico De Boinville: Record by Year

Yearly stats are my next port of call. Here is a breakdown by both win, and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

As the graph indicates, De Boinville has been consistent in terms of yearly winners / placed efforts. There was a slight dip last year in 2022, but in 2023 he has won nigh on a quarter of all his races.

Nico De Boinville: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

A look at the results by splitting them into different price bands:

 

The Evens and shorter group have performed above the norm, getting close to a break-even situation. These short-priced runners have done especially well in chases hitting a win rate of over 71%. The 7/4 to 5/2 group has edged into profit, so this price range has offered some value. However, I would not be confident that it will continue in subsequent seasons as the slightly inflated results are probably down to statistical variance.

Nico De Boinville: Record by Distance

A look at De Boinville’s record at different distances now. I have grouped them into four distance bands and to begin with I’m comparing win and each way strike rates:

 

 

This graph shows that the shorter the distance the better for De Boinville. If we look at the PRB figures (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) they correlate with the win/EW strike rates:

 

 

The 0.62 figure for the two mile or shorter races group is extremely impressive, as is the 2m1f to 2m2f group; less so the three miles or longer PRB figure of 0.48.

Nico De Boinville: Record by Race code

It is time to see if Nico’s record is better over the bigger obstacles, the smaller obstacles or on the level:

 

 

There are stronger figures across the board in hurdle races – a higher strike rate, better returns, and a higher A/E index. Backing all his mounts over hurdles to Betfair SP would have yielded a profit of £325.45 (ROI +21.1%), with six of the eight years producing a profit. Of course, a few big-priced winners have helped but hurdle races seem to be the races to concentrate on. Handicap hurdle races have produced the bigger profits to BSP but non-handicap hurdle races have also yielded a BSP profit.

Handicap chase results have proved to be poor by comparison. A strike rate of 13.2% has seen SP losses of 33p in the £; the BSP figures are not much better with losses standing at 27p in the £.

Nico De Boinville: Record by Racecourse

Below is a table displaying all courses where De Boinville has had at least 80 rides. The courses are listed alphabetically:

 

 

In general, the course strike rates are over 20% although Aintree and Cheltenham both dip below this mark. This is due to the competitive racing / bigger average field size you get at both tracks, and the A/E figures at those courses are actually top and third in the list. Uttoxeter results also come in at under 20% (15.65%) with a modest A/E index and PRB figure, so this looks a course to be a little wary of.

The Newbury figures are strong and are particularly impressive when focusing just on hurdle races. In these races at the Berkshire track, De Boinville has won 34 of his 116 starts (SR 29.3%) for an SP profit of £57.96 (ROI +50.0%). This profit almost doubles if backing to BSP standing at £106.62 (ROI +91.9%). However, don’t get too excited about the overall profits as a 50/1 winner (BSP 84.9) is almost solely responsible for the bottom line. Having said that, if you look at hurdlers at Newbury priced 2/1 or shorter, the record is very good (and profitable) – 22 wins from 38 (SR 57.9%) for an SP profit of £8.05 (ROI +21.2%); to BSP this edges up to +£10.33 (ROI +27.2%).

 

Nico De Boinville: Record by Trainer

Along with Nicky Henderson, only Ben Pauling has used De Boinville more than 100 times going back to the start of 2016. However, they have not joined forces at all in 2023, and only six times in 2022. Hence, I will simply focus on the combination with Henderson:

 

 

Let me compare these figures with his record with all other trainers combined:

 

 

There is a quite a difference as you can see. The strike rate for Henderson is more than double, and his runners have produced better returns, with both the A/E index and the PRB figures higher. Of course, this was perhaps to be expected as Henderson has a glut of quality horses.

There are a couple of Henderson / De Boinville stats I’d like to share:

  1. Henderson is not a huge fan of horses returning to the track quickly, but the jockey/trainer combo has done well when a horse is returning off a short break of two weeks or less. There have been only 50 qualifiers, but 13 have won (SR 26%) showing a profit to SP of £25.08 (ROI +50.2%).
  2. When De Boinville rides Henderson horses aged 3 or 4 the record reads 80 winners from 258 (SR 31%). Profits have been modest to SP (+£12.66, ROI +4.9%), but to BSP they look healthier at £56.53 (ROI +21.9%).

Nico De Boinville: Record by Class of Race

There are some interesting stats when looking at Graded / Listed races as the graph below of win strike rates show:

 

 

Grade 3 races, which in National Hunt are all handicaps, have provided a strike rate of just 1.1% - this is due to just one winner from 93 attempts. Of these 93 Grade 3 contestants, 39 of them were priced 8/1 or shorter. All 39 were beaten and only nine managed to place. 13 of the 39 were favourites, while 32 were in the top three of the betting.

In races of Class 2 or lower, De Boinville has hit win strike rates above 20% in three separate classes (Class 3, 4 and 5 events). He has only ridden in 41 Class 6 races, winning 6 (SR 14.6%), while in Class 2 events he is 46 from 299 (SR 15.4%).

Nico De Boinville: Record by Run style

Regular readers of my articles will know I am fan of sharing run style data. To begin with here is a breakdown of Nico’s run style performance in terms of win strike rate across ALL races:

 

 

Front runners (led) have edged it over prominent runners in terms of strike rate, both groups have secured a better than one-in-four win rate. If we examine the A/E figures we can see that they correlate with the SR%s as the following chart shows:

 

 

The led A/E index is decent at 1.05 which suggests these runners would have been value investments. Horses that raced mid-division or further back early would have offered punters poor value.

The two sets of run style data clearly show that when De Boinville is riding, a horse racing close to or up with the pace is what, as punters, we are hoping for.

Nico De Boinville: Additional stats

Before moving onto Harry Cobden, here are some extra stats for De Boinville that I feel are worth knowing:

  1. His record in novice events is poor from an ROI perspective. Despite a strike rate around the 25% mark, in novice chases you would have lost over 24p in the £ to SP (19p in the 3 to BSP). In novice hurdle races the figures are similar with 25p in the £ losses to SP, 15p in the £ to BSP.
  2. Horses priced 14/1 or bigger in novice events are 0 from 123.
  3. De Boinville has secured a better strike rate on fillies and mares (22.8%) compared to their male counterparts (21.4%). The female runners would have also produced a blind profit to SP of £27.57 (ROI +5.6%); to BSP this increases to +£128.50 (ROI +26%).
  4. Sticking with fillies and mares, when they have started Evens or shorter, 36 of the 45 have won securing an 80% strike rate. Returns have been positive, too, as one would expect – 31 pence in the £ at SP, 37p using BSP.

-------------

Harry Cobden: Overall Record

Let’s now shift our focus to Harry Cobden and start by looking at his record on all horses in all UK NH races:

 

 

These figures are remarkably similar to those for De Boinville. The strike rates are within 0.21 of a percentage point and the ROIs are both around the -11% mark.

Now it is time to break down these data, firstly by year.

Harry Cobden: Record by Year

Here is a graphical breakdown by both win, and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

As the graph shows, Cobden has managed a win strike rate of 20% or more in six of the eight years, with the other two years just missing out (18.5% and 19.5%). Likewise, seven of the eight years have seen each way (win & placed) strike rates hitting over 40%. Overall, his figures look very consistent.

Harry Cobden: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

Let us see whether any market / price patterns can be found by breaking down Cobden’s results by Starting Price bands:

 

 

The shorter priced runners (first three rows in the table) have provided similar results to those for De Boinville. Horses priced Evens and shorter have effectively broken even, while the 7/4 to 5/2 have again snuck into profit. As a rule, Cobden’s price stats suggest that horses 5/2 or shorter look the ones to concentrate on.

Harry Cobden: Record by Distance

A dive next into Cobden’s record at different distances. I have grouped them into the same four distance bands I did earlier and am looking at the win and each way strike rates:

 

 

These are a more even set of stats than those for De Boinville, with only a slight drop in longer distance races (3 miles or more). If we look at the PRB figures we get the following splits:

 

 

A much more even grouping for Cobden than we saw for De Boinville. He seems to ride all distances well, especially distances of 2 miles or less.

Harry Cobden: Record by Race code

The next table illustrates Harry’s record by race code.

 

 

Chases and hurdle races offer similar looking stats, certainly as far as strike rate and ROI% is concerned.

The results in bumpers (NH Flat) are poorer when considering the whole-time frame, and losses have been steep at over 27% (27 pence in the £). However, 2022 and 2023 would have seen you break even thanks to a strike rate of just over 20%.

Harry Cobden: Record by Racecourse

I am now going to look at all courses where Cobden has had at least 80 rides. The courses are listed alphabetically:

 

 

Wincanton is the course that initially catches my eye. Not only has he ridden there more than anywhere else, but he has secured the best strike rate of all courses, too. A small profit to SP has also been achieved and the PRB figure of 0.68 is extremely high considering we are talking about over 300 rides. Not only that, but his record there has been very consistent hitting a strike rate of over 25% in each of the eight years. Hurdle races have provided the best results with 61 wins from 171 rides (SR 35.7%) for an SP profit of £40.86 (ROI +23.9%).

Taunton is another track with an excellent PRB of 0.68 – his rides at the course have seen a decent SR% again; this time 28.3%, but no blind profit. Like Wincanton, the hurdle results at the Somerset venue are the best with a 31% strike rate for a break-even scenario.

Other tracks where Cobden has done well include Newbury, Plumpton, and Worcester. Before moving on I will mention his record at Musselburgh. He has only had 24 rides there, but has been successful on 11 of them (SR 45.8%) for a profit of £13.21 (ROI +55%).

Harry Cobden: Record by Trainer

During the period of study, Cobden has had 100 plus rides for two trainers – Paul Nicholls and Colin Tizzard. Cobden had ridden over 600 times for Tizzard when that trainer passed the baton to his son Joe in April 2022. Hence, I will focus on his combination with Paul Nicholls:

 

 

He has secured a strike rate just above one win in four, but losses are slightly bigger than his overall P&L. For comparison purposes, here is his record with all other trainers combined:

 

 

As we can see the strike rate drops markedly to around one win in every six rides, but losses have been smaller. The PRB is lower, while the A/E index remains the same.

Harry Cobden: Record by Class of Race

When sharing Nico De Boinville’s stats earlier, it was shown that his record in Grade 3 contests was extremely poor. We see a similar situation when looking at Cobden’s results as the graph below shows:

 

 

Once again, the results for Grade 3 contests (remember, all of which are handicaps) are quite woeful, especially when we consider his overall record. It should also be noted that 39 of his rides in Grade 3 contests came from horses in the top three in the betting. Of these, just one prevailed.

Harry Cobden: Record by Run Style

Finally, in terms of main sections, let’s look at the run style splits in terms of win percentages:

 

 

This breakdown shows how effective Cobden is when taking the early lead. A strike rate of 35.3% is exceptional. If you had been able to predict pre-race which of his horses went into an early lead you would have secured an SP profit of £126.04 (ROI +16.2%). Conversely, backing all hold up horses would have seen huge losses of £472.71 (ROI -47.8%). As one would expect the A/E indices for his Run Style runners correlate with the win rates:

 

 

The clear takeaway here is that Cobden on a front runner is a potent combination.

Harry Cobden: Additional stats

Before concluding this piece here are some extra stats for Harry Cobden that are worth knowing:

  1. Good to firm ground is relatively rare in NH racing but Cobden has scored 33.6% of the time when racing on this ground. He has won 45 races from 134 rides. A small 4p in the £ profit to SP would have been achieved if backing all such runners blind.
  2. When Cobden rides a horse for a second time in their careers having won on them last time out, he has an excellent strike rate of 28.6%.
  3. He has a modest record in maiden races in terms of returns. Losses of over 28p in the £ would have occurred if backing all qualifiers. If you exclude trainer Paul Nicholls from these figures the losses are even greater at over 40p in the £.

Main Takeaways

Below is a 'cut out and keep' table of the main takeaways from this research.

 

That’s all for this article – two jockeys for the price of one! I hope it has uncovered some angles that may prove useful for readers over the coming months.

- DR



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns