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Trainer Stats: 6th Nov 2012


Dalgleish Hitting The Back Of The Net....

This week Andy Newton has a trainer that’s currently operating with an 80% strike-rate......Yes, 80%! Read more

Well I Declare: 17th October

Well I Declare: 17th October

Well I Declare: 17th October

Kempton, Lingfield, Nottingham and Wetherby are our hosts today and here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's thoughts for the day.

WEDNESDAY 17/10:

Kempton:

General stats: Violet Jordan (2/4 at the track) saddles her course and distance winner Perfect Honour on Wednesday.
Lingfield:

General stats: This is the first meeting on the newly laid surface whereby readers are advised to give the course time to prove itself, one way or the other!
Nottingham:

General stats: Lucy Wadham held three entries at the time of writing at a track where the trainer has saddled two winners via just five runners. 
Wetherby:

General stats: Charlie Longsdon’s 43% strike rate (6/14) stands out from the crowd at Wetherby and with eleven potential runners on Wednesday, Charlie is obviously intent on saddling more winners at the venue.

Three-year-old maiden hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Two of the last fifteen favourites have obliged, whilst nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.25: Nine of the last 12 winners of this handicap hurdle event have carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst five clear market leaders have won via the last fourteen renewals, alongside one joint and two co favourites.  Fifteen of the nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.55: Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 10-12 or less.  Nine of the seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event due to be contested at 4.30: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last 10 renewals whilst eight of the last ten favourites in this event have won, with 3/1 and 9/2 shots having snared gold in the other contests.  Twelve of the seventeen market leaders have finished in the frame during an extended period, statistics which include ten winners.

Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 5.00: Evan Williams come into the race on a hat trick having held just the one entry (One In A Million) at the four-day stage.  Two of the four favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the finale, statistics which include one winner.

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2012

Stat of the Day 17/10

Stat of the Day 17/10

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2012

Well, Barista certainly gave it his all yesterday, but didn't quite have enough in his locker to see off the imperious Richard Hughes on board a well-fancied odds-on jolly. We expected that to be the main danger, but we had taken 8/1 E/W on an eventual 9/2 shot, so the value was certainly there and we picked up another 0.3pts for our troubles. It was, of course, an easy forecast for many of you and the CSF paid £4.87 and the Exacta paid £6.80, so fair play / well done to those of you on that.

Just a short trip for SotD today, a mere 30 miles up the A46 from yesterday's race at Leicester, we pitch ourselves at Colwick Park for a 16-runner, 10-furlong, Class 3 Handicap on Soft (Good to Soft in places) ground, better known to you as the...

3.15 Nottingham

As you've probably all gathered by now, I'm a bit of a numbers geek and today post will further reinforce that theory!

Firstly when it comes top analysing recent trainer form in Nottingham handicaps, Michael Appleby has been represented in more races than any of the other top 15 trainers in action today, so we're getting a decent sample size to work from. In the last two years, Michael has sent twenty runners to compete in these type of events and his record stands up to the best of them. A win strike rate of 30% via 6 winners producing level stakes profits of 54pts (270% profit) makes him the most successful in terms of profits and the 3rd highest strike rate. His place strike is also excellent with 10 of the 20 making the frame and backing all twenty as E/W bets would have netted a cool 71pts profit.

So, we've got a trainer, we now need a horse!  Well, quite a chunk of any profit made by Mr Appleby here at Nottingham has come from today's selection Art Scholar.

Art Scholar is 2 from 2 at Nottingham over course & distance, including a comfortable-enough win on his last outing a week ago, where he came in at 25/1 beating the runner-up by the best part of 2 lengths and staying on/pulling away at the end. Incidentally, we'd backed the 3rd place horse at 12/1 E/W for SotD that day, so Art Scholar caught my eye then.

The horse himself is in cracking form aside from last week's win: 8 wins from his last 25 races over the last 16 months or so, including two at 25/1, two at 9/1 and two at 6/1, helping him to a level stakes profit of some 67pts from 25 races. A further four place-finishes and four fourth-places have meant he has only been out of the top four on nine of those 25 outings: a very good level of consistency. (That's a lot of fours, sorry!)

Art Scholar is also 4 from 8 at today's trip and last week's win was on similar Good to Soft ground that he'll encounter today. All in all, I think he has an excellent chance of putting in another good show for us.

He does carry a 6lb penalty for last week's victory and this is reflected in his price today, but the 10/1 BOG currently available at Stan James looks generous (he's as low as 13/2 in places and 8/1 generally) and as a 16-runner race, we're aiming for another top four finish (1/4 odds paid for the place). So, for me (and SotD records) it's 0.5pts E/W on Art Scholar at 10/1 BOG with Stan James, but you really should take time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.15 Nottingham.

P.S. Michael Appleby has another handicapper on the card today: as Demora runs in the 4.20 race. She was a 14/1 winner last time out at Bath (5 weeks ago), but she runs from 1lb out of the handicap today and whilst having a chance of a place, she'll find it tougher today. She is however, available at 14/1 BOG with Paddy Power, if you were so inclined.


Trainer Stats: 16th Oct 2012

Dr Newland's Horses Are In Good Heart

Andy Newton has seven more trainers to keep on your side this week - see who they are here....... Read more

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2012

Stat of the Day 10/10

Stat of the Day 10/10

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2012

A gutsy run from Eamaadd yesterday who looked comfortable in the lead until around the 7 furlong mark, when Andrea Atzeni then had to get work to try and drive our mount home over the final two furlongs. Unfortunately, he was swamped by two faster finishers, losing the lead inside the final furlong and then losing 2nd position on the line.

Fortunately we'd taken 8/1 E/W about what was eventually a 7/2 shot, so the value was definitely there, as was a trading opportunity (traded as low as evens in play!). So it was a small 0.3pts profit on the race, but it's still 30% in 2 minutes and it's another placer for Roger Varian at Wolverhampton making 16/23!

We're not travelling far from Wolverhampton for today's contest, just 60 miles or so to the North East for a 13-runner (was 16!), 10-furlong Class 4 Handicap aka the...

4.30 Nottingham

Luca Cumani doesn't run many horses in handicap company at Nottingham, but when he does, the results are generally very good. Since May 2010, he has been represented by just 10 handicappers at this track and the results were 1412166221, a 40% win ratio generating 13.1pts profit at SP and a place strike rate of 80%: quite remarkable.

The last of those runs was a course and distance victory at 7/2 for today's selection Dulkashe.

Dulkashe's maiden form was pretty good, placing in each of her three races before improving to land a  fillies' handicap on her return to racing after a 7-month break  in May. She will have needed last month's reappearance (6th of 13 at Sandown) as a pipe-opener and should give a much better account of her self today.

She comes up against a very warm favourite in the shape of Sunpass, who is currently as low as 4/5 in places, but this race is no penalty kick for the favourite and the shortness of that price opens the door to some E/W value. This possible added value, allied to Luca's record of 8 places from 10 steers me towards an E/W bet today.

Having checked the market again, I'm happy to take on the favourite in the knowledge that we can get 11/1 BOG with Stan James, Ladbrokes and William Hill, so it's 0.5pts E/W today on Dulkashe at 11/1 BOG (12/1 non-BOG also available at Sporting Bet) but you can always...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 4.30 Nottingham.

PS Luca Cumani has another handicapper on the course today: Spring Tonic is generally a 4/1 shot in the 5.00 race, but this is an apprentice event, which aren't the most reliable of contests and I think I'd probably want a little more than 4/1 personally.

Well I Declare: 10th October

Well I Declare: 10th October

Well I Declare: 10th October

Today's action comes from Kempton, Ludlow, Nottingham and Towcester, as Mal Boyle previews the racecards for...

...WEDNESDAY 10/10:

Kempton:

General stats: Richard Hannon saddled a 9/1 double on last year’s corresponding card with the trainer holding six entries at the time of writing this time around.

 

Ludlow:

General stats: Cornwall based trainer Jackie Du Plessis held two declarations on the card at the five-day stage having secured three victories at the course from just five runners thus far. 

Juvenile Maiden Hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Two favourites have won via the last nine contests, during which time three gold medallists have scored at 25/1-20/1-11/1.  Only three of the nine market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

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Mares Novice Hurdle scheduled for 2.40: Three of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via five renewals, statistics which include two winners.

Three mile Handicap Chase due to be contested at 3.10: Six and seven-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals between them (even split), whilst the same stats apply for horses carrying weights of 11-4 or more.  All six contests have passed without a successful market leader being recorded, whilst two of the seven market leaders have troubled the judge from a toteplacepot perspective.

Two and a half mile Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 4.10: Six-year-olds had won all five renewals until last years when 80/1 and 33/1 representatives let the side down!  The six renewals have produced all manner of results with the gold medallists being returned at 33/1--9/1--11/4--11/4--9/4--5/6 (two successful favourites).  Four of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, one of the casualties being last year’s 5/6 favourite.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle due to be contested at 4.40: Favourites come into the race on a hat trick having secured three of the six contests thus far.  Six of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 5.10: Evan Williams held two options in the race this year coming into the contest on a hat trick.  Five-year-olds have won four of the five contests thus far.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor stands out from the crowd via recent stats: 2YO: 8/15----3YO: 8/24----older horses: 3/13----General strike rate of: 36.5%

 

Towcester:

General stats: John Quinn held three options on the card on Monday having saddled half (3/6) of his runners at the track to victory during the last five years.

Well I Declare: 3rd October

Well, I Declare: 3rd October

Well, I Declare: 3rd October

We've racing from Kempton, Newcastle, Nottingham and Salisbury today and here's just a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's thoughts on the action planned for...

...WEDNESDAY 03/10:

Kempton:

General stats: Eight of Saeed Bin Suroor’s last nine runners at Kempton have been beaten but at a track where the trainer excels (32% strike rate), watch out for the trainer to ’bite back’ very soon.

7.40: Who says trainers are not creatures of habit?  Richard Hannon saddled three runners in the inaugural running of this Nursery event last year and the trainer follows suit this time around.  For the record, Richard’s horses finished 1st (3/1), 3rd (12/1) and 4th (20/1) twelve months ago.

8.10: All seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones whilst two favourites have prevailed thus far.  Only three of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

8.40: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick (the other two market leaders failed to secure toteplacepot positions) whilst Richard Hannon (Ninjago) has won two of the four renewals to date.

9.10: We still await the first favourite to finish in the fame behind winners sent off at 14/1-8/1-15/2.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: William Haggas and Noel Quinlan each boast a 40% strike rate at Gosforth Park, albeit William’s record relates to ten winners during the last five years as opposed to Noel’s brace of gold medallists.

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3.45 & 4.20 (two divisions): All four winners carried weights of 8-12 or more, whilst three of the four favourites have won at 5/1-4/1-3/1.

5.20: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last twelve renewals, whilst three favourites have prevailed via the last eight contests, statistics which has produced a level profit strike rate of 7.5 points during the period.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Lucy Wadham is a rare visitor to Nottingham, though two of her four runners in recent times have prevailed.  Lucy’s strike rate with juveniles (23% during the last five years) is fair enough considering she has few two-year-olds in her care and newcomer Nullarbor Sky is Lucy’s representative on the card in the 4.30 event.

3.55 & 4.30 (two divisions): John Dunlop won both divisions of the 2010 event but was not represented last year.  John’s only potential runner in the race last weekend was Alnawiyah and sure enough, John has offered his inmate the green light. Just two favourites have prevailed via the last eleven renewals.

5.00: Favourites have won six of the last ten contests.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Switched Off is Ed McMahon’s only runner on the card and with the trainer boasting a 23% strike rate at the track, the seven-year-old could score for the yard.  Four of Ed’s last six runners had finished ‘in the three’ at the time of writing, statistics which include a 5/1 winner.

1.30 & 2.00 (two divisions): Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last eighteen renewals, whilst fifteen of the eighteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

2.30: Richard Hannon has won the race five times in the last fifteen years and the trainer is represented this time around by Baltic Knight.  Eight favourites have scored during the last decade with the market leader coming into this year’s event on a six timer.

3.00: Three-year-olds have won four of the six renewals to date and with eight of the ten contenders representing the junior vintage, the ratio should improve further still.

3.35: Favourites of one description or another have won five of the last six contests.

4.10: Five of the last nine gold medallists have scored at 33/1--20/1--20/1--20/1--14/1 whilst seven of the last ten market leaders have failed to trouble the judge.  Horses carrying 9-3 or less have secured twelve of the last thirteen contests.

5.10: The last seven winners have carried 9-3 or more.

Well I Declare, 17th August

Well I Declare: 17th August

Well I Declare: 17th August

It's a case of new, new, new today! Please take care when placing your bets, as we have meetings from Newbury, Newcastle & Newmarket on the same day! The alliteration is continued at Nottingham and there's also action from Catterick & Kempton for good measure. Here's your daily reminder of Mal Boyle's insights on the day's racing.

 

FRIDAY 17/08:

Catterick:

General stats: Favourites backers endured a desperate week last year as you might have already gathered!  This meeting was no different because after the first market leader obliged at 5/1, the other gold medallists scored at 28/1-18/1-11/1-10/1-7/1.  Another four figure toteplacepot dividend was declared.  The message is clear (especially with plenty of rain coming down at the time of writing whereby conditions might change again), ease up with your stakes unless you are playing with the opposition’s money. 

 

Newbury:

General stats: The start of a two-day meeting at which four favourites were successful (just the one on Friday) via sixteen races last year.  Patrick Chamings scored the first of two winners at 9/2 on the Friday prior to his 9/1 gold medallist which opened the Saturday card.  Roger Charlton secured a 41/1 double on the opening day.  Four winners were returned in double figures at 20/1 (Richard Price), 16/1 (Roger Charlton), 11/1 (Sir Michael Stoute) and 11/1 (Denis Coakley).

Class 4 two-year-old maiden event scheduled for 1.50: John Gosden and Saeed Bin Suroor have each won two of the six renewals to date, whilst all six favourites have finished in the money to date (three winners).

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs--latest result first):

6-9-5 (15 ran-good)

3-1-8 (15 ran-good)

1-7-6 (11 ran-good)

8-3-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

7-5-12 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-6-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

Thirteen furlong Class 3 handicap scheduled for 2.50: The fact that three-year-olds have not always contested this event suggests that vintage raiders have done well to record four victories during the last decade.  One clear market leader and one joint favourite have prevailed in the last fourteen years (one non runner--withdrawn before a new market could be formed), whilst six of the fourteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Listed St Hugh’s Stakes scheduled for 3.25: Six renewals have slipped by since the last (5/2) favourite obliged. Four favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, with seven of the fourteen market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen renewals.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

2-5-1 (12 ran-good)

7-11-10 (12 ran-good)

3-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

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3-1-2 (18 ran-good to soft)

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-4-12 (12 ran-good)

4-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-13-10 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-2-10 (10 ran-good to firm)

8-7-4 (8 ran-good)

Class 4 six furlong handicap due to be contested at 4.00: Six of the eight winners to date carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst five of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (three winners).

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

3-6-7 (9 ran-good)

2-3 (6 ran-good)

8-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-1-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

15-5-11 (14 ran-good)

3-6-7 (13 ran-good)

2-6-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

14-13-16 (15 ran-good to soft)

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Ed Dunlop held three options for this meeting at the five-day stage, the trainer boasting impressive 5/10 stats during the recent seasons. Just ten points of level stake profits have been realised during the period though looking positively at that scenario, it simply means that Ed’s horses was well fancied before winning their respective events. 

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Two of the six favourites were successful on the middle day of the meeting last year, though the other four winners were returned at odds of 22/1 (Peter Chapple-Hyam), 20/1 (Noel Quinlan), 10/1 A(Andrew Balding) and 9/1 (David Nicholls).

 

Nottingham:

General stats: I struggle with one Nottingham fixture during the course of a week, let alone two!  Out of Interest, Tom Queally sent his supporters home happy twelve months ago by riding the last two winners at odds of 5/1 and 3/1 (23/1 double).

 

Kempton:

General stats: Chevise (5.45 & 6.45) is doubly engaged at the meeting at the time of writing with Steve Woodman having saddled his fair share of winners at the Sunbury circuit, producing seven points of level stake profits in recent times.

Trainer Stats: 15th Aug 2012

Tregoning Horses Are Hitting The Mark

See who is on Andy Newton’s ‘HOT TRAINERS’ list this week....... Read more

Well I Declare, 14th to 18th August

Well I Declare: 14th to 18th August

Well I Declare: 14th to 18th August

Going back twelve months for the corresponding meetings made for interesting reading, given that the weather was generally set fair for most of the week with good (perfect) ground reported at several venues.

This is not the case this year as I can testify as my main television was destroyed early on Sunday morning via a thunderbolt which directly hit a house down the road.

Weekly readers will appreciate that this has been anything but a normal period for yours truly but then again, my computer could have been pole-axed I guess, which might have resulted in many of you giving thanks to a superior being.

Upwards and onwards by reporting that this his should be a good time of the year for investors but that was not the case as you will read during the daily offerings.

Between Tuesday and Saturday last year, one hundred and eighty-eight races were contested which produced a market leader strike rate of just 28.7%.

Fifty four favourites obliged, though the successful ’jollies’ were joined by forty-nine gold medallists who were returned in double figures.

The message is as clear as the afore-mentioned lightning strike; tread carefully unless you are playing with ‘swag‘ gained from the old enemy.

With all this mind, we start our week with five meetings from Ayr, Bath, Nottingham, Wolverhampton & Yarmouth.

 

TUESDAY 14/08:

Ayr:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott’s Hernando filly Awilda (2.15) represents a trainer who boasts 5/15 figures in the juvenile division.

 

Bath:

General stats: Course and distance winner Cats Eyes (4.00) represents trainer Robert Cowell who has saddled three of his five representatives at the venue to winning effect. 

2.00: Two of the last four runners saddled by Ron Hodges have won, with Kyllachy Storm having finished second during the period.  Runner up Kyllachy Storm robbed the yard of securing a 156/1 treble though hopefully, compensation awaits here.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Ned Curtis has two booked rides at the meeting at the time of writing and though it is ‘early doors’ regarding Ned’s career, it’s worth noting that his ratio at the venue stands at 2/4.  On the training front, Michael Appleby (31%) and Roger Charlton (27%) head Tuesday’s list of represented handlers. 

5.20: Seven of the eight winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared the last six renewals.   Six-year-olds would have been coming to the party on a four-timer has trainers looked at the race, though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion.  Seven of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include six successful market leaders.

5.50: Four-year-olds have secured half (5/10) of the available toteplacepot positions to date whilst having secured two of the last three races.  Four of the five favourites have failed to reach the frame to date, including a 4/7 chance.  Last year’s 14/1 winner piled more misery onto the majority of punters who are still waiting for the first successful market leader.

6.50:  Six of the last seven winners have carried nine stones or more, whilst two of the last four favourites have won, albeit the successful jollies were flanked by a 20/1 and 10/1 gold medallist.  Six of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last dance.

7.20: Memphis Man recorded his fourteenth success last time out though according to my records, the grand David Evans servant has not registered back to back victories for the thick end of five years now.  One of the three favourites (via two renewals) secured a toteplacepot position to date by winning its respective event.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Mark Johnston only requires three winners to put the trainer on the 100 mark at Wolverhampton during the last five years.  Mark has saddled twenty winners this month via a 24% strike rate at the time of writing, a ratio which has produced an LSP figure of twenty-seven points.

 

Yarmouth:

General stats: I alerted you to Ed Walker’s great record here at Yarmouth last week before the trainer saddled a 4/1 winner, taking his strike rate up to 5/9 at the seaside venue.

 

WEDNESDAY 15/08:

Beverley:

General stats: Sir Michael Stoute saddled an 86/1 treble on Saturday and the trainer boasts a great 6/13 record here at Beverley in recent times.  Tracy Waggott is another handler to keep on the right side given her LSP figure of twelve points which have been gained via a 22% strike rate.  Last year’s two day meeting got off to a great start for Mel Brittain who saddled a 359/1 treble on the card. 

2.15: Three of the four favourites (winners of their respective races) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far. The other winner scored at 50/1, just to keep your feet well and truly on the ground!

2.45: Although only two of the last nine renewals have been claimed by favourites, eight of the ten favourites have finished in the frame.  Seven winners have scored at odds of 7/2 or less during the last decade.

3.15:  All four winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less, whilst three of the six market leaders have finished in the money (one winner) via four renewals to date.

3.50: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of 8-12, whilst five-year-old have secured three of the last five renewals.  Five favourites have won during the last eleven years, during which time nine of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

4.25:  The last five winners have carried weights of 9-4 or more, whilst five-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer.  Seven of the last eleven winners were returned in double figures, with prices ranging from 10/1 to 50/1.  No favourite has prevailed during the last decade, whilst five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Kieran Fallon stands tall in the saddle via his 34% strike rate figure at Salisbury, statistics which have produced twenty-one points of level stake profits.  As far as trainers are concerned, Alan King (6/24), Richard Price (5/19) and Alastair Lidderdale (2/5) and names to consider.  Five of the six favourites scored on last year’s corresponding card.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Nicole Nordblad is mentioned in despatches for the first time in this service, given that the jockey sits on the 20% mark (good figures for this venue) via eight winners.

 

Southwell:

General stats: James Tate is one of the (serious) new trainers to consider, his raiders here having achieved 4/7 status. 

 

THURSDAY 16/08:

Beverley:

General stats: Only one of the seven races went the way of a market leader on the Thursday card last year, the other six winners ranging in price between 6/1 and 33/1. 

 

Chepstow:

General stats: Punters are due a better day than on this card last year as the winners scored at 28/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-13/2-11/2-11/4* on what was perfect (good) going whereby there were no excuses made on account of the ground. The toteplacepot dividend of £2,421.40 told the story as just two favourites finished in the frame via the opening six races.  Sir Mark Prescott and Peter Chapple-Hyam lead the percentage table of the potentially represented trainers on Thursday.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: This is the start of a three-day meeting which produced a strike rate of 35.0% of winning favourites (7/20) twelve months ago.  Peter Chapple-Hyam (22/1 & 6/1) and Mahmood Al Zarooni (8/1 & Evens--17/1 double on the final day of the fixture) were the only trainers to saddled two winners.  All seven winners on the first day were recorded in single figures, ranging between 8/11 & 9/1.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Richard Hannon saddled a winner on each day of the meeting twelve months ago, opening the two-day fixture with a successful 15/8 favourite before winning the penultimate race on the Thursday via an 8/1 chance. 

 

Fontwell:

General stats: We have been starved on NH action of late whereby I will report the leading trainers (ratios) in August according to my records: 5/11-Tim Vaughan---3/16-Lucinda Russell---2/6-Donald McCain---2/4--Richard Woollacott---2/5--Philip Hobbs

 

Stratford:

General stats: Thursday was not a fortunate day for the majority of punters twelve months ago because alongside the poor results at Chepstow, all six favourites were beaten at Stratford, with winners going off at 33/1-25/1-8/1-11/2-5/1-7/2. Charlie Longsdon boasts a 34% strike rate at the track, statistics which have produced nearly twenty-two points of level stake profits.  Daniel Mark Loughnane has scored with both representatives at the track thus far, securing an LSP figure of twenty-one points.  Daniel held two options earlier in the week for this meeting. 

 

FRIDAY 17/08:

Catterick:

General stats: Favourites backers endured a desperate week last year as you might have already gathered!  This meeting was no different because after the first market leader obliged at 5/1, the other gold medallists scored at 28/1-18/1-11/1-10/1-7/1.  Another four figure toteplacepot dividend was declared.  The message is clear (especially with plenty of rain coming down at the time of writing whereby conditions might change again), ease up with your stakes unless you are playing with the opposition’s money. 

 

Newbury:

Your first 30 days for just £1

General stats: The start of a two-day meeting at which four favourites were successful (just the one on Friday) via sixteen races last year.  Patrick Chamings scored the first of two winners at 9/2 on the Friday prior to his 9/1 gold medallist which opened the Saturday card.  Roger Charlton secured a 41/1 double on the opening day.  Four winners were returned in double figures at 20/1 (Richard Price), 16/1 (Roger Charlton), 11/1 (Sir Michael Stoute) and 11/1 (Denis Coakley).

Class 4 two-year-old maiden event scheduled for 1.50: John Gosden and Saeed Bin Suroor have each won two of the six renewals to date, whilst all six favourites have finished in the money to date (three winners).

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs--latest result first):

6-9-5 (15 ran-good)

3-1-8 (15 ran-good)

1-7-6 (11 ran-good)

8-3-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

7-5-12 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-6-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

Thirteen furlong Class 3 handicap scheduled for 2.50: The fact that three-year-olds have not always contested this event suggests that vintage raiders have done well to record four victories during the last decade.  One clear market leader and one joint favourite have prevailed in the last fourteen years (one non runner--withdrawn before a new market could be formed), whilst six of the fourteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Listed St Hugh’s Stakes scheduled for 3.25: Six renewals have slipped by since the last (5/2) favourite obliged. Four favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, with seven of the fourteen market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen renewals.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

2-5-1 (12 ran-good)

7-11-10 (12 ran-good)

3-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-1-2 (18 ran-good to soft)

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-4-12 (12 ran-good)

4-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-13-10 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-2-10 (10 ran-good to firm)

8-7-4 (8 ran-good)

Class 4 six furlong handicap due to be contested at 4.00: Six of the eight winners to date carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst five of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (three winners).

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

3-6-7 (9 ran-good)

2-3 (6 ran-good)

8-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-1-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

15-5-11 (14 ran-good)

3-6-7 (13 ran-good)

2-6-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

14-13-16 (15 ran-good to soft)

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Ed Dunlop held three options for this meeting at the five-day stage, the trainer boasting impressive 5/10 stats during the recent seasons. Just ten points of level stake profits have been realised during the period though looking positively at that scenario, it simply means that Ed’s horses was well fancied before winning their respective events. 

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Two of the six favourites were successful on the middle day of the meeting last year, though the other four winners were returned at odds of 22/1 (Peter Chapple-Hyam), 20/1 (Noel Quinlan), 10/1 A(Andrew Balding) and 9/1 (David Nicholls).

 

Nottingham:

General stats: I struggle with one Nottingham fixture during the course of a week, let alone two!  Out of Interest, Tom Queally sent his supporters home happy twelve months ago by riding the last two winners at odds of 5/1 and 3/1 (23/1 double).

 

Kempton:

General stats: Chevise (5.45 & 6.45) is doubly engaged at the meeting at the time of writing with Steve Woodman having saddled his fair share of winners at the Sunbury circuit, producing seven points of level stake profits in recent times. 

 

SATURDAY 18/08:

Chester:

General stats: Marco Botti and Jim Boyle boast 3/9 ratios on the Roodee at the time of writing, albeit the percentage pales in comparison to Sir Mark Prescott’s impressive 5/10 haul at Chester. 

 

Doncaster:

General stats: Just one of the first three favourites won on last year’s card but far worse was to follow because in keeping with other results up and down the country during the corresponding period, the last five winners were sent off at 14/1-12/1-12/1-11/1-9/1.

 

Newbury:

General stats: Richard Hannon secured a 74/1 double on the second day of the meeting twelve months ago via winners at 14/1 and 4/1.  Three of the eight favourites prevailed with seven winners returned at 9/1 or less. 

Class 4 juvenile event for fillies over six furlongs scheduled for 1.30:  Richard Hannon has won four of the last seven renewals (14/1 winner last year) and with five entries at the penultimate stage, the trainer was obviously intent on improving his ratio.  Eight favourites have won via the last sixteen renewals, whilst ten market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

10-2-1 (9 ran-good--latest result first)

10-4 (7 ran-good)

11-10-13 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-4-11 (10 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-4-8 (15 ran-good to soft)

5-12-7 (15 ran-good to soft)

9-5-7 (11 ran-good)

3-7-10 (11 ran-good)

7-5-15 (15 ran-good to firm)

16-3-4 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-2-8 (10 ran-good to soft)

6-11-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

11-13-2 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-10-15 (21 ran-good to firm)

‘Washington Singer’ event scheduled for 2.00: John Gosden was winning the race for the third time in the last seven years 12 months ago and the trainer’s only entry earlier in the week was Excess Knowledge.  Mark Johnston has saddled two gold medallists during the John’s recent reign and Steeler was the only entry from Mark’s stable at the five-day stage.  Six clear market leaders and two joint favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years.  Nine of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Group 3 event thirteen furlong event scheduled for 2.30:  Seven of the last twelve favourites have won whilst four-year-olds have snared four of the last seven renewals of this ‘Geoffrey Freer’ contest.

Group 2 Hungerford Stakes due to be contests at 3.05:  Four-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, though three-year-olds have won three of the last four contests.  Four clear marker leaders and one joint favourite have won in the last fourteen years.  Seven of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

3-7-11 (9 ran-good)

6-9 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4-10 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-2-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

8-2 (7 ran-good to soft)

8-3-5 (9 ran-good)

7-11-6 (13 ran-good)

4-5-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

6-3-8 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-2 (7 ran-good)

4-2-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

Ten furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 4.10: Six renewals have slipped by since the last (100/30) favourite obliged though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was a 6/1 chance.  The last five winners carried weights of 9-2 or more.

Lady riders finale scheduled for 4.45: We still await the first successful favourite via five renewals whilst three-year-olds have won three contests thus far.  Sarah Brotherton has secured two gold, one silver and one bronze medal via her last four rides in the race and the pilot was ‘jocked aboard’ both Hamilton Hill and The Quarterjack at the time of writing!

 

Newmarket:

General stats: In contrast to the rest of the week, the last three favourites (of seven) at the meeting sent the majority of punters home happy.  Only Mick Channon (16/1), Tony Carroll (11/1), Mahmood Al Zarooni (8/1) and David Barron (8/1) scored on behalf of the layers. 

 

Ripon:

General stats: Tim Easterby secured a 58/1 double at the meeting twelve months ago, having also saddled a 12/1 winner at Doncaster earlier in the afternoon, completing a 772/1 treble on the day.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: David Simcock saddled a 30/1 at the meeting last year, whilst Roger Charlton’s 41% strike rate at the course makes for impressive reading.  Having saddled four of his last eleven runners to winning effect at the time of writing, Roger could be set for another good day at ‘Leafy Lingfield’ as it used to be referred to by regulars on the ‘Victoria rattler’ in times gone by.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Tim Vaughan, Peter Bowen and David Pipe invariably saddle winners at this time of year and sure enough, each of the three trainers was in the area reserved for the winner of one race apiece on the card twelve months ago.

Well I Declare, 2nd August

Well I Declare, 2nd August

Well I Declare, 2nd August

It's Thursday and Day 3 at Glorious Goodwood and I'm just here to bring you a reminder of Mal Boyle's thought for the day's action. He's also got some information on the meetings at Epsom, Ffos Las, Nottingham and Stratford on what promises to be yet another enthralling day in our beloved sport.

THURSDAY 02/08:

Goodwood:

General stats: Sir Michael Stoute secured a 24/1 double on the card on the Thursday of the meeting last year.

Ten furlong three-year-old handicap scheduled for 2.15: Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-0 or less, whilst Mark Johnston is looking for his fifth winner in the race in the last fourteen years.  John Gosden has won three of the last nine contests, whilst favourites have won six of the last eleven renewals of this opening event on day three of the meeting. Ten of the last fifteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions.

‘Richmond Stakes’ due to be contested at 2.45: Richard Hannon has secured the last four renewals of this Group 2 Richmond Stakes and with four penultimate stage entries, Richard was obviously intent on saddling another winner.  Five winning favourites to report in ‘recent’ seasons (2012, 2011, 2010, 2006 & 1999), whilst nine of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen years.

‘Goodwood Cup’ scheduled for 3.15: Favourites have won six of the last eight contests, whilst nine of the last 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Fourteen furlong Group 3 ‘Lillie Langtry’ event scheduled for 3.45: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer whilst three of the ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winner) via nine renewals.

Seven furlong juvenile (‘New Ham‘) event scheduled for 4.20: Golden Causeway is my speculative juvenile to look out for in the two-year-old division at ‘Glorious‘ Goodwood this year.  I made the point twelve months ago that Amber Silk could be backed at an each way price and the Barry Hills raider finished second at 20/1.  Barry had won a few renewals shortly before his retirement and it’s worth noting that Charlie Hills has, without question, waited for this event to saddle his Giant’s Causeway filly.  Charlie named the January foal as one to watch in a stable tour earlier in the year. Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last fifteen years.  Nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

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Class 2 seven furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 4.55: Four of the last five winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more to victory. No favourite has prevailed during the study period (fourteen years), whilst seven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Eleven furlong Class 3 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 5.25: We still await the first successful favourite following seven renewals, four of the winners having been returned at odds ranging between 14/1 & 25/1.

 

Epsom:

General stats: Medicoe (scheduled to run in the 6.55 juvenile event) holds three entries this week but if lining up here, Sir Mark Prescott’s raider will be hoping to improve the 3/8 tally for the stable in two-year-old event at Epsom in recent years.  Mark’s 42% strike rate across the board makes for great reading, though Medicoe is Mark’s only potential runner on the card. 


Ffos Las:

General stats: Strategic Heights has been declared for the scheduled 8.50 event by trainer Liam McAteer who has saddled three of his six runners at the venue to winning effect.


Nottingham:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor (37% strike rate) and Michael Appleby (36%) potentially head the represented trainers at Nottingham on Wednesday. 

Stratford:

General stats: Kielan Woods is already booked aboard Gougane (4.30), the jockey having ridden five of his eleven mounts to winning effect at Stratford! A level stake profit of thirty-three points adds icing on the cake.

Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2012

Stat of the Day 02/08

Stat of the Day 02/08

Stat of the Day: 2nd August 2012

It wasn't really a surprise that we kicked August off with a loss, as our selection was a 20/1 E/W shot! Henry's Gift opened up at 12/1 on course ( a little elbow room for the traders amongst us) and was eventually sent off at 16/1. He ran his race and only really ran out of steam in the final furlong, eventually finishing 7th of the 9 runners, but beating a couple far more fancied than he was.

Today, we're on familiar SotD territory: good trainer with a decent course record from a fairly small number of runners, sending out just one horse. The race is a Class 6 Maiden for 3 & 4 yr olds over a mile on good ground. Nine runners are currently set to contest the...

4.45 Nottingham

Our trainer today is the very well-known Luca Cumani, whose record at Nottingham in recent years is pretty good indeed. he doesn't send hundreds of runners to this track, but the ones sent out tend to go well. 26% of them go on to win here and his place strike rate at Nottingham is an excellent 52%. As is often the case with SotD, we're not only focusing on his only Nottingham runner today, but it's also his sole entrant anywhere.

The horse in question is Medici Music, a 50,000 Guinea yearling who made a reasonably impressive impact on debut at Yarmouth 3 weeks ago, finishing second that day. He was just touched off by a 100/1 shot that day who was 6lbs lighter and the ground was probably a little too soft for our selection. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect him to improve quite a bit for that run and his breeding suggests he may well be a half-decent horse. His half-brother won 6 races between seven and nine furlongs, including a Group 2 success.

Our jockey today is Kirsty Milczarek, and this is also her only ride of the day. Incidentally, her last 3 rides for Mr Cumani at Nottingham have yielded two winners and a runner-up.

Not all bookmakers have priced this one up yet, but the 11/4 BOG on offer from bet365 for Medici Music looks appealing enough today, so I'm on that, but you really should...

Click here for the latest odds for the 4.45 Nottingham.

Well I Declare, 20th July

Well I Declare 20/07/12

Well I Declare 20/07/12

Good Morning to one and all, today's programme features action from Ascot, Haydock, Newmarket, Nottingham and Pontefract: weather permitting!

Here's a reminder of Mal Boyle's thoughts on the day's proceedings (as originally posted on Tuesday!)


FRIDAY 20/7:

Ascot:

Stats from the three-day meeting last year:

19 races

Favourite details (19 market leaders): 6 winners--4 placed--9 unplaced

Two odds on favourites: Roger Charlton winner at 4/5 and Sir Michael Stoute trained loser at 10/11.

Fourteen of the nineteen winners were returned at 10/1 or less, eleven gold medallists being sent off at a top price of 11/2.  The other five winners were returned at 20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-12/1.

John Gosden led the way with four winners (20/1-16/1-11/2-15/8*), John securing a 316/1 treble on the Saturday which included his 11/2 ‘King George’ winner Nathaniel.

Quite how one of John’s runners was sent off as a 20/1 winner on the Sunday remains a mystery given his success on the second day of the meeting.

The only other handler to saddle more than one winner during the three days was retired trainer Barry Hills who secured events with 8/1 and 9/2 chances.

Sir Michael Stoute saddled four beaten favourites (10/11-6/5-6/4-11/4) of which just two reached the frame. Saeed Bin Suroor was the only other trainer to saddle more than one market leader (11/10 & 15/8), both horses missing out on toteplacepot positions.

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £24.70 (average dividend over the last ten years: £712.75)

Saturday: £462.30 (average dividend over the last ten years: £710.86)

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Sunday: £332.70 (average dividend over the last ten years: £308.46)

 

Friday details at Ascot:

Juvenile maiden for fillies scheduled for 2.10: Five of the last twelve favourites have scored whilst twelve of the last fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  The last eleven winners have won at odds of 15/2 or less.

Two mile all aged handicap scheduled for 3.20: Four clear market leaders, one joint and one co favourite have won this event during the last fifteen years.  Just nine of the twenty-two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

One mile Class 3 all aged handicap scheduled for 5.05: Ten of the twelve winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst five market leaders have won via twelve renewals to date. Three of the other seven favourites additionally secured toteplacepot positions.

 

Haydock:

General stats: It is hardly surprising that seven pound claimer Natasha Eaton has secured a ride at the meeting already, given her 3/6 ratio at Haydock!  National was booked aboard Fleeting Echo in the scheduled 4.50 event early doors on Monday.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: George Baker is amassing a fair size yard now whereby his few runners at Newmarket are worth consideration.  George seemingly puts a great deal of planning into his declarations as his 3/11 ratio at Newmarket confirms.

Ten furlong Class 5 all aged handicap due to be contested at 5.40: Seven of the nine winners to date have carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (three winners).  Fourteen of the twenty-eight available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at 12/1 or more, statistics which include three winners at 16/1--16/1--12/1.

Seven furlong juvenile maiden for fillies scheduled for 6.10:  Five of the fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two winners. Eight of the last nine winners were returned at 25/1, 25/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1, 9/1 & 11/2, whilst two other horses have secured toteplacepot positions at 33/1 during the period alongside other outsiders.  Mahmood Al Zarooni comes to the gig on a hat trick and it’s worth noting that the trainer held four options at the penultimate entry stage.

Class 4 seven furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 6.45: Fifteen of the twenty toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying weights of 9-0 or more, whilst five of the eight favourites have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective (three winners).

Five furlong Conditions event scheduled for 7.15: Four clear market leaders and one co favourite have scored in the last fifteen years.  Eleven of the seventeen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions though it’s worth noting that four odds on favourites have been beaten in recent years.  The last fifteen winners have all been returned in single figures.

Three-year-old maiden event over one mile due to be contested at 8.25:  Six of the eleven favourites have scored to date whilst aside from two 25/1 winners, the biggest priced scorer was returned at 7/2.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Michael Appleby is rapidly making a name for himself and Michael’s 5/14 stats at this venue catch the eye, especially as the trainer has yielded thirty-four points of level stake profits into the bargain. 

 

Pontefract:

General stats: Ralph Beckett has saddled four gold and four silver medallists via his last sixteen runners at the time of writing and with the trainer having saddled five winners from just seventeen representatives at Pontefract in recent times, any horses from the yard offered the green light should be followed.

Well I Declare, 7th July 2012

Well I Declare, 7th July 2012

Well I Declare, 7th July 2012

The torrential downpour continues to wreak havoc with the racing calendar. Meetings at Carlisle, Leicester & Nottingham scheduled for today have already been abandoned, whilst both Beverley & Haydock must face a 7am inspection before announcing whether any action wil take place.

These were Mal Boyle's thoughts about the day, before the spate of abandonments kicked in.


SATURDAY 7/7:

Beverley:

General stats: David Lanigan was mentioned in dispatches earlier in the analysis and his record of 6/11 here at Beverley also makes for interesting reading.

 

Carlisle: NOW ABANDONED

General stats: James Turner is an unfamiliar name to keep in your black book, especially here at Carlisle where the trainer has saddled two of just five runners to winning effect.

 

Haydock:(7AM INSPECTION!)

General stats: Look at Friday’s comments which could be relevant to Saturday’s meeting, whilst throwing in the fact that Charlie Hills (25% strike rate) has done well at Haydock during his first year of training.

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Mile and a half 3YO handicap scheduled for 2.20: We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals of this opening event.  Only one of the last five market leaders has secured a toteplacepot position, a 2/5 favourite being listed among the casualties.

Lancashire Oaks scheduled for 2.55: Although eight winners of the Lancashire Oaks during the last decade were returned at odds of 13/2 or less, only two favourites have scored.  John Gosden has saddled three of the last nine winners and only his potential representative Great Heavens was 'jocked up' (Robert Havlin) on Tuesday morning.

The Old Newton Cup scheduled for 3.25: Four-year-olds have won seven renewals of the Old Newton Cup during the last decade, whilst just two market leaders have obliged during the study period.  Luca Cumani held two options earlier in the week with the trainer having saddled three of the last eight winners of this Class 2 event.

Two-year-old handicap event scheduled for 4.00: Happy days are here again as the Nursery season has arrived though unfortunately this is a new race on the racing calendar, whereby we will have to wait for a contest with trends in place.  Watch this (Nursery) space.  If it is of any help to you, Richard Hannon was responsible for three of the sixteen five-day declarations, two of which figured in the top three ratings by the assessor, though Rod Millman’s Indesatchel colt Yes Two took pride of place at the top of the handicap off a mark of eighty-five at the time of writing.

Six furlong conditions event scheduled for 5.10: Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick having secured three of the last five renewals, whilst three favourites have won via nine contests during the last decade. Eight of the gold medallists were returned at odds of 6/1 or less, whilst just one of the last five market leaders has finished in the money.

 

Leicester: NOW ABANDONED

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor has long since ruled the Leicester roost as his recent 41% strike rate confirms.  Keep any Gary Moore runners on the right side as well given Gary’s 5/16 ratio. 

 

Nottingham: NOW ABANDONED

General stats: Michael Appleby’s 5/16 ratio catch the eye as do the fifty-four level stake profits of Roy Bowring down the years at Nottingham.

 

Sandown:

General stats: Clive Cox is the man for the LSP readers among you having produced a positive figure of thirty-three points at the Esher venue in recent years.  Sir Mark Prescott (36% strike rate) looked set to have representatives at the course later in the week via Monday’s penultimate stage declarations.

‘Coral Eclipse’ scheduled for 3.45: Aidan O’Brien has saddled four winners during the last decade and his four representatives on Monday were headed up last year’s half length winner So You Think who was an odds on chance at the time of writing.  Favourites have won the last three renewals before which time, six renewals had slipped by without a successful market leader having been registered.  Eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last decade.

 

Trainer Stats: 14th June 2012

Cecil Heading To Ascot In Form

This week Andy Newton gives you five flat and five NH yards to look out for.......... Read more