Tag Archive for: Nottingham

Tix Picks, Wednesday 30/10/24

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Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Fakenham, Kempton, Newton Abbot & Nottingham.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest money is at Kempton, but there are too many novice fillies to deal with for my liking, so let's head for the soft/heavy ground at Nottingham for six races beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 1.05, a 9-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m½f...

Only three of this field have raced so far and none of them really caught the eye, but of that trio, Love Beach seems the one to focus on. He was pretty slow to get going here over course and distance three weeks ago on heavy ground, but you could see the penny started to drop more as the race went on and he's sure to benefit from the experience.

Elsewhere, I know that spending money on young horses doesn't guarantee success, but the Frankel colt Opportunity cost 475,000 guineas as a yearling, has excellent breeding (of course) and is a full brother to Zagato, who won five races between 1m-1m4f including a Group 2 contest, he's also a half brother to five other winners and his dam was successful at 1m-1m2f.

I also think that El Matador will go well here too. He's a half-brother to eight winners, including Snazzy Jazzy, won eight times at 6f and 7f including a Group 3 race and trainer Ralph Beckett has seen 58 of his 128 (45.3%) 2 yr olds make the frame on turf since the stat of 2023 with 30 (23.4%) of them going on to win. His horses are flying right now and he has a fantastic record with 2yo debutants here at Nottingham...

So, it's (2) El Matador, (4) Love Beach & (5) Opportunity for me here.

Leg 2 @ 1.35, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Dashing Roger won over course and distance just over a year ago and backed it up with another win at Newmarket three weeks later, but hasn't fired at all this season, so it is hoped that a drop in class and a return to heavy ground works for him. Lets Dream makes a return from six months of and wasn't exactly inspiring in his two runs earlier this year either, but he has been gelded during his absence and gets a 3lbs weight allowance as a 3yo.

Asteverdi also gets that allowance and she won at Sandown in June and has been third in two of her last three outings. Double Time also won in June (at Goodwood) but has finished 88468 and was beaten by some eleven lengths on heavy ground last time out.

Shaladar was only 7th of 9 at Newcastle last time out, but (a) he's much better on turf and (b) he was only beaten by three lengths in a tight race. His last two runs on turf (early September and then 26 days ago) were both on soft ground and he made the frame both times, but he's up one class here. Temper Trap is up two classes after finishing fourth of twelve here over course and distance last time out on soft ground ending a great sequence of results reading 22211 under a variety of going conditions.

Temper Trap has won five of ten starts on soft/heavy ground, whilst the overall place picture over the last two years looks like this...

Those drawn highest have tended to come worst off in similar past races, which isn't great for Temper Trap or Double Time and those runners setting the tempo have done really well here...

...but with a lack of real pace from our field...

...I suspect we'll get a falsely un race that plays into the hands of 'finishers', which will help the likes of (3) Asteverdi and (5) Shaladar, so I'll take that pair for my tickets.

Leg 3 @ 2.08, a 7-runner, 3yo+ listed race over 1m½f...

My initial thoughts backed up by my own ratings and the early market prices all point to a 1-2 for the in-form Ralph Beckett with his closely-matched pair Grey's Monument and Qirat. The former comes here on a hat-trick after soft ground wins at Class 2 and then a Listed race at Redcar 25 days ago, whilst Qirat won at Goodwood in August and was then a runner-up in an 18-runner field on soft ground at Ascot, also 25 days ago,

Elsewhere Sparks Fly made all to win a Listed race in France on very soft ground at the start of the month, Canoodled won a big-field handicap at the Ebor meeting, albeit on much quicker ground and Times Edition comes here on a run reading 2221, but all at Class 5 and she's up four classes here which will probably be the undoing of her, despite her good record under today's conditions...

..leaving Sparks Fly as the best suited from that graphic. Times Edition is also at the 'wrong end' of the stalls, as is Canoodled, but unlike the race above, we should have a decent tempo from flag fall...

...with the subsequent pace/draw heat map...

...finalising my decision to go with (2) Grey's Monument, (3) Sparks Fly and (4) Qirat

Leg 4 @ 2.38, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ novice stakes over 1m6f...

If the last race looked like it might be dominated by Ralph Beckett, then this one might go to the Gosdens who run both Fireblade and Faifa here. Fireblade is by Frankel and was finishing strongly when a runner-up beaten by just a neck over 1m4f at Ascot on heavy ground at the start of the months; the drop in class might just lead him to break his duck today. Stablemate Faifa actually steps up in class and whilst running to a reasonable level so far, probably has a bit more to prove under these conditions, but stayed on well to finish third at Doncaster in a Class 2 race two starts ago.

Mr Hampstead was deemed worthy of a run in the Derby and the Gr 2 Queens Vase this summer, but was well beaten in both, beating just one runner home on each occasion. There's obviously a belief that he has something, but might need a run after over four months off. Games People Play was disappointing on heavy ground last time out, but was a decent second of fourteen on soft ground at Carlisle seven weeks ago, albeit at Class 5. Rained Off, Rose Coloured Girl and Volakes complete the line-up with little of note from this trio so far.

I'll stick with the Gosden pair here; (1) Fireblade and (4) Faifa with (5) Games People Play as my backup

Leg 5 @ 3.08, a 6-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

He might well be 9yrs old now, but Makanah is running well, having finished 1292 in his last four. The two runner-up defeats were only by half a length including a strong run on heavy ground at Leicester last time out. Changeofmind's recent results can be a bit misleading as he has been racing at a higher grade, since finishing second of nine at Hamilton on heavy ground in August (three lengths ahead of Count D'Orsay, a 14/1 winner I selected yesterday). Blind Beggar was also a heavy ground runner-up on his last run, finishing just a head in front of the re-opposing Fantasy Master.

Fantasy Master now re-opposes Blind Beggar some 3lbs better off and has a 50% place strike rate here (6 from 12 inc 2 wins) over course and distance, but his record on soft/heavy ground isn't as good as Blind Beggar's...

The pace and draw stats point to higher drawn runners faring best here, as do those who race in mid-division and in Changeofmind and Makanah, we have two runners who tick both boxes...

and I'll take this pair; (1) Makanah and (2) Changeofmind

Leg 6 @ 3.38, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Course and distance winner Smooth Silesie has certainly been kept busy and today will be her eleventh run in the last four months. She has finished in the first three home in eight of those ten starts and has finished 1311622 in her last seven and she'll probably go well again today. Albegone doesn't win very often, but it's place from we need for this column and he has been the runner-up in four of his last seven races and it's a similar story for Wrestling Revenue, who is 1322 from his last four, but the going might undo him here.

Enchanted Night produced her best run for some time when third of eleven on soft ground at Yarmouth last week but races from 4lbs out of the handicap. The one to beat here might well be the 3yo Collusion who got caught very late on in a 0.75 length defeat on handicap debut on soft ground at Yarmouth last week. He steps beck in trip here, which should help and he should strip fitter for the run, as he'd been off the track for eight months prior to last week's effort. He goes again off the same mark here and if running this 5f like he ran the first 5f last week, might be tough to beat, especially in the mood Rossa Ryan rides with right now...

That said, Albegone also has some decent stats to call upon...

So I'm going to take (7) Collusion as my likely winner, along with regular placers (2) Albegone and (1) Smooth Silesie in the hope that the latter can import some of her good recent A/W form to the turf. Enchanted Night interested me on her stats and I think she might be better than her 33/1 (just before 10am) price might suggest. She receives chunks of weight all round, her jockey takes another 5lbs off, but she does run from outside of the handicap. She won't go on my ticket today, but I might just have a small (very small!) E/W punt on her

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) El Matador, (4) Love Beach & (5) Opportunity for me here.

Leg 2: (3) Asteverdi & (5) Shaladar

Leg 3: (2) Grey's Monument, (3) Sparks Fly & (4) Qirat

Leg 4: (1) Fireblade, (4) Faifa & (5) Games People Play

Leg 5: (1) Makanah & (2) Changeofmind

Leg 6: (1) Smooth Silesie, (2) Albegone & (7) Collusion

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24

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Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Catterick, Kempton, Musselburgh & Nottingham.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Nottingham, where the going is said to be heavy for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 2.00 Nottingham, a 4-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m½f...

Jowddah has been a runner-up on both starts so far and possibly bumped into a decent sort last time out in the shape of Sandtrap. She's down two classes here in a weaker-looking field and she's my most likely winner and backed up by some impressive trainer place stats...

That said, 2yo maidens don't always go to plan and Tattycoram showed signs of promise/ability on her Ascot debut four weeks ago on soft ground and would be the main danger here, I'd have thought.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Nottingham, an 8-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 5f...

Eight run here, but the bookies think it's a three-horse race. They're not always right, but they probably are here. Veblen Good looks the one to beat based on his soft ground runner-up finish on debut and Karl Burke's horses make the frame more often than not on their second start.

After that it looks like a two-way battle between Nad Alshiba Snow and Think Of A Name for the runner-up spot and that's where bottom weight Nad Alshiba Snow was last time out for the second time in five outings. She has already raced at Group 3 and was also beaten by less than three lengths at Class 2, so should be in the mix once again.

Think Of A Name didn't seem suited by the Tapeta at Newcastle last time out, but ran enough to finish second on his previous (and only second) run at Newbury in July and should appreciate a return to turf and also a drop in trip. Safety first approach here, I'll take all three!

Leg 3 : 3.10 Nottingham, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Another trappy little contest here with only Lilly's Bet of the six looking like they might be out of their depth. Stirrup Cup sets the standard on recent results, having won a soft ground Class 5 Nursery at Carlisle, before a Class 2 runner-up finish at Ayr last time out and he's the only runner here not stepping up at least two classes.

Shazani was only denied by a short head in an other Class 2 heavy ground nursery at Hamilton two starts ago, attwepting to make all and getting caught on the line and the winner that day has won again since. Blewburton won on soft ground on his debut at Leicester in late-April before a couple of third place finishes on ground eventually too quick for him. He didn't stay 7f on his handicap debut last time out, but a drop in trio and a return to much softer ground could be the key here.

The going might not suit Rare Change here, as all seven career efforts have come on good or quicker ground and after a couple of promising third placed finishes on his first two handicap starts, seems to be regressing, whilst it's a similar situation for the going for Eighteencaratgold who hasn't managed to make the frame in four outings to date.

Instant Expert says to focus on the top half of the card...

...which allies with my own thoughts above, so again I'll go belt and braces with Shazani, Blewburton & Stirrup Cup here.

Leg 4 : 3.45 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Four Adaay won LTO on soft ground and has made the frame in four of her last seven, whilst Northern Spirit comes her on a three-race run reading 211, After going down by a neck at Newcastle, he has won at Southwell and was impressive landing an 18-runner handicap at York last time out. Fantasy Master completes a trio of LTO winners, coming here off the back of winning a 14-runner handicap at Doncaster, but he is up in trip today. Elsewhere, The Ridler was a good fifth in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last time out and had been placed in three of his previous four starts, Hierarchy has made the frame in his last two, Music Society has been the runner-up in each of his last two whilst bottom weight So Grateful has finished 323 in his last three, so plenty look like being in decent nick.

As with the previous race, the top of the card seem to tick more Instant Expert boxes than their rivals...

..and I'm definitely keen on the first two, Northern Spirit and Fantasy Master. As intimated above, you can then make a case for several of the remainder, with that excellent run at Ayr in my mind, I've a marginal preference for The Ridler, but I'm concerned that Four Adaay might upset my plans!

Leg 5 : 4.20 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Another tricky contest with several holding claims including It's All About You who is 242311 in his last six outings. He won't mind the heavy ground, having won on similar at Ffos Las over 2m last time out, so we shouldn't have any stamina concerns either.

Expressionless is 12712 in his last five, although he's not as proven on softer ground as the previous runner, he has won over course and distance. Clever Relation was third two starts ago, beaten by less than a length over today's trip and was the winner of a Class 3 seller last time out and my form shortlist also includes Knight Templar. he's the sole 3yo in the race, so gets a very useful 7lbs allowance and he comes here on a run reading 2211 from his last four on Turf, which has a soft ground win amongst it. He's 2 from 2 since moving from Sir Mark Prescott's yard and will be in the mix here, I'm sure.

Instant Expert throws Alpine Stroll's name into the hat, as he'll not mind the ground either...

When I initially looked at the race on Tuesday evening, the two I wanted to be with were It's All About You and Expressionless and now having looked closer at the recent form etc, I think Knights Templar might even beat the pair of them with the 7lbs allowance and the upturn in fortune from a change of yard. His new handler has a decent record of getting LTO winners back in the frame, albeit off a small sample size...

...Knights Templar gets chosen here too.

Leg 6 : 4.55 Nottingham, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

And we end with another 8-runner contest that the bookies and I both agree might well be a three-horse race. Elladonna is two from three and three from six. She is admittedly unproven/untried on soft (or worse) ground, but has won over course and distance and is in great form, as is Prometeo who comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Kempton and Doncaster over similar trips. Again, he hasn't raced on anything softer than good to soft, but was a runner-up beaten by just a neck on his sole run under that going condition. He's the highest-rated runner in the race, but as a 3yo gets a 4lbs allowance here.

Amancio is the other 3yo in the contest, so also gets that 4lbs allowance and although he doesn't win as often as his connections/followers would like (just 1 from 16 so far), he has 10 top-three finishes from his last 14 outings, did win on soft ground at Haydock in April and has finished 2242 in his last four, going down by just half a length on soft ground last time out. Elsewhere, we should mention Ardabraccan who won here on soft ground back in April and had three runner-up finishes from her last five runs (25722) and possibly Giselles Defence, who has two wins and two silvers from his last five, was a soft ground winner at Pontefract in May and shows up pretty well on Instant Expert...

Giselles Defence also throws another spanner into the works by being one of those likely to race furthest forwards...

I was going with both Elladonna and Prometeo, but neither are proven on the going and I prefer Elladonna of those two. I'm still going with Amancio who ticks form, Instant Expert and pace boxes and I think I'm going to take a chance on Giselle's Defence at the expense of Prometeo and hope that call doesn't bite me on the backside later!

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Jowddah & (4) Tattycoram

Leg 2: (6) Think of A Name, (7) Veblen Good & (8) Nad Alshiba Snow

Leg 3: (1) Shazani, (2) Blewburton & (3) Stirrup Cup

Leg 4: (1) Northern Spirit, (2) Fantasy Master & (5) The Ridler

Leg 5: (2) It's All About You, (3) Expressionless & (9) Knights Templar

Leg 6: (1) Elladonna, (3) Giselle's Defence & (7) Amancio

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always,
Chris

PS A quick heads-up, I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after tomorrow's piece (Thursday), I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October.