Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24

Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Catterick, Kempton, Musselburgh & Nottingham.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Nottingham, where the going is said to be heavy for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 2.00 Nottingham, a 4-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m½f...

Jowddah has been a runner-up on both starts so far and possibly bumped into a decent sort last time out in the shape of Sandtrap. She's down two classes here in a weaker-looking field and she's my most likely winner and backed up by some impressive trainer place stats...

That said, 2yo maidens don't always go to plan and Tattycoram showed signs of promise/ability on her Ascot debut four weeks ago on soft ground and would be the main danger here, I'd have thought.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Nottingham, an 8-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 5f...

Eight run here, but the bookies think it's a three-horse race. They're not always right, but they probably are here. Veblen Good looks the one to beat based on his soft ground runner-up finish on debut and Karl Burke's horses make the frame more often than not on their second start.

After that it looks like a two-way battle between Nad Alshiba Snow and Think Of A Name for the runner-up spot and that's where bottom weight Nad Alshiba Snow was last time out for the second time in five outings. She has already raced at Group 3 and was also beaten by less than three lengths at Class 2, so should be in the mix once again.

Think Of A Name didn't seem suited by the Tapeta at Newcastle last time out, but ran enough to finish second on his previous (and only second) run at Newbury in July and should appreciate a return to turf and also a drop in trip. Safety first approach here, I'll take all three!

Leg 3 : 3.10 Nottingham, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Another trappy little contest here with only Lilly's Bet of the six looking like they might be out of their depth. Stirrup Cup sets the standard on recent results, having won a soft ground Class 5 Nursery at Carlisle, before a Class 2 runner-up finish at Ayr last time out and he's the only runner here not stepping up at least two classes.

Shazani was only denied by a short head in an other Class 2 heavy ground nursery at Hamilton two starts ago, attwepting to make all and getting caught on the line and the winner that day has won again since. Blewburton won on soft ground on his debut at Leicester in late-April before a couple of third place finishes on ground eventually too quick for him. He didn't stay 7f on his handicap debut last time out, but a drop in trio and a return to much softer ground could be the key here.

The going might not suit Rare Change here, as all seven career efforts have come on good or quicker ground and after a couple of promising third placed finishes on his first two handicap starts, seems to be regressing, whilst it's a similar situation for the going for Eighteencaratgold who hasn't managed to make the frame in four outings to date.

Instant Expert says to focus on the top half of the card...

...which allies with my own thoughts above, so again I'll go belt and braces with Shazani, Blewburton & Stirrup Cup here.

Leg 4 : 3.45 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Four Adaay won LTO on soft ground and has made the frame in four of her last seven, whilst Northern Spirit comes her on a three-race run reading 211, After going down by a neck at Newcastle, he has won at Southwell and was impressive landing an 18-runner handicap at York last time out. Fantasy Master completes a trio of LTO winners, coming here off the back of winning a 14-runner handicap at Doncaster, but he is up in trip today. Elsewhere, The Ridler was a good fifth in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last time out and had been placed in three of his previous four starts, Hierarchy has made the frame in his last two, Music Society has been the runner-up in each of his last two whilst bottom weight So Grateful has finished 323 in his last three, so plenty look like being in decent nick.

As with the previous race, the top of the card seem to tick more Instant Expert boxes than their rivals...

..and I'm definitely keen on the first two, Northern Spirit and Fantasy Master. As intimated above, you can then make a case for several of the remainder, with that excellent run at Ayr in my mind, I've a marginal preference for The Ridler, but I'm concerned that Four Adaay might upset my plans!

Leg 5 : 4.20 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Another tricky contest with several holding claims including It's All About You who is 242311 in his last six outings. He won't mind the heavy ground, having won on similar at Ffos Las over 2m last time out, so we shouldn't have any stamina concerns either.

Expressionless is 12712 in his last five, although he's not as proven on softer ground as the previous runner, he has won over course and distance. Clever Relation was third two starts ago, beaten by less than a length over today's trip and was the winner of a Class 3 seller last time out and my form shortlist also includes Knight Templar. he's the sole 3yo in the race, so gets a very useful 7lbs allowance and he comes here on a run reading 2211 from his last four on Turf, which has a soft ground win amongst it. He's 2 from 2 since moving from Sir Mark Prescott's yard and will be in the mix here, I'm sure.

Instant Expert throws Alpine Stroll's name into the hat, as he'll not mind the ground either...

When I initially looked at the race on Tuesday evening, the two I wanted to be with were It's All About You and Expressionless and now having looked closer at the recent form etc, I think Knights Templar might even beat the pair of them with the 7lbs allowance and the upturn in fortune from a change of yard. His new handler has a decent record of getting LTO winners back in the frame, albeit off a small sample size...

...Knights Templar gets chosen here too.

Leg 6 : 4.55 Nottingham, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

And we end with another 8-runner contest that the bookies and I both agree might well be a three-horse race. Elladonna is two from three and three from six. She is admittedly unproven/untried on soft (or worse) ground, but has won over course and distance and is in great form, as is Prometeo who comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Kempton and Doncaster over similar trips. Again, he hasn't raced on anything softer than good to soft, but was a runner-up beaten by just a neck on his sole run under that going condition. He's the highest-rated runner in the race, but as a 3yo gets a 4lbs allowance here.

Amancio is the other 3yo in the contest, so also gets that 4lbs allowance and although he doesn't win as often as his connections/followers would like (just 1 from 16 so far), he has 10 top-three finishes from his last 14 outings, did win on soft ground at Haydock in April and has finished 2242 in his last four, going down by just half a length on soft ground last time out. Elsewhere, we should mention Ardabraccan who won here on soft ground back in April and had three runner-up finishes from her last five runs (25722) and possibly Giselles Defence, who has two wins and two silvers from his last five, was a soft ground winner at Pontefract in May and shows up pretty well on Instant Expert...

Giselles Defence also throws another spanner into the works by being one of those likely to race furthest forwards...

I was going with both Elladonna and Prometeo, but neither are proven on the going and I prefer Elladonna of those two. I'm still going with Amancio who ticks form, Instant Expert and pace boxes and I think I'm going to take a chance on Giselle's Defence at the expense of Prometeo and hope that call doesn't bite me on the backside later!

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Jowddah & (4) Tattycoram

Leg 2: (6) Think of A Name, (7) Veblen Good & (8) Nad Alshiba Snow

Leg 3: (1) Shazani, (2) Blewburton & (3) Stirrup Cup

Leg 4: (1) Northern Spirit, (2) Fantasy Master & (5) The Ridler

Leg 5: (2) It's All About You, (3) Expressionless & (9) Knights Templar

Leg 6: (1) Elladonna, (3) Giselle's Defence & (7) Amancio

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always,
Chris

PS A quick heads-up, I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after tomorrow's piece (Thursday), I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Monday 07/10/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24