Tix Picks

Tix Picks, Wednesday 30/10/24

Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Fakenham, Kempton, Newton Abbot & Nottingham.

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Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest money is at Kempton, but there are too many novice fillies to deal with for my liking, so let's head for the soft/heavy ground at Nottingham for six races beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 1.05, a 9-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m½f...

Only three of this field have raced so far and none of them really caught the eye, but of that trio, Love Beach seems the one to focus on. He was pretty slow to get going here over course and distance three weeks ago on heavy ground, but you could see the penny started to drop more as the race went on and he's sure to benefit from the experience.

Elsewhere, I know that spending money on young horses doesn't guarantee success, but the Frankel colt Opportunity cost 475,000 guineas as a yearling, has excellent breeding (of course) and is a full brother to Zagato, who won five races between 1m-1m4f including a Group 2 contest, he's also a half brother to five other winners and his dam was successful at 1m-1m2f.

I also think that El Matador will go well here too. He's a half-brother to eight winners, including Snazzy Jazzy, won eight times at 6f and 7f including a Group 3 race and trainer Ralph Beckett has seen 58 of his 128 (45.3%) 2 yr olds make the frame on turf since the stat of 2023 with 30 (23.4%) of them going on to win. His horses are flying right now and he has a fantastic record with 2yo debutants here at Nottingham...

So, it's (2) El Matador, (4) Love Beach & (5) Opportunity for me here.

Leg 2 @ 1.35, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Dashing Roger won over course and distance just over a year ago and backed it up with another win at Newmarket three weeks later, but hasn't fired at all this season, so it is hoped that a drop in class and a return to heavy ground works for him. Lets Dream makes a return from six months of and wasn't exactly inspiring in his two runs earlier this year either, but he has been gelded during his absence and gets a 3lbs weight allowance as a 3yo.

Asteverdi also gets that allowance and she won at Sandown in June and has been third in two of her last three outings. Double Time also won in June (at Goodwood) but has finished 88468 and was beaten by some eleven lengths on heavy ground last time out.

Shaladar was only 7th of 9 at Newcastle last time out, but (a) he's much better on turf and (b) he was only beaten by three lengths in a tight race. His last two runs on turf (early September and then 26 days ago) were both on soft ground and he made the frame both times, but he's up one class here. Temper Trap is up two classes after finishing fourth of twelve here over course and distance last time out on soft ground ending a great sequence of results reading 22211 under a variety of going conditions.

Temper Trap has won five of ten starts on soft/heavy ground, whilst the overall place picture over the last two years looks like this...

Those drawn highest have tended to come worst off in similar past races, which isn't great for Temper Trap or Double Time and those runners setting the tempo have done really well here...

...but with a lack of real pace from our field...

...I suspect we'll get a falsely un race that plays into the hands of 'finishers', which will help the likes of (3) Asteverdi and (5) Shaladar, so I'll take that pair for my tickets.

Leg 3 @ 2.08, a 7-runner, 3yo+ listed race over 1m½f...

My initial thoughts backed up by my own ratings and the early market prices all point to a 1-2 for the in-form Ralph Beckett with his closely-matched pair Grey's Monument and Qirat. The former comes here on a hat-trick after soft ground wins at Class 2 and then a Listed race at Redcar 25 days ago, whilst Qirat won at Goodwood in August and was then a runner-up in an 18-runner field on soft ground at Ascot, also 25 days ago,

Elsewhere Sparks Fly made all to win a Listed race in France on very soft ground at the start of the month, Canoodled won a big-field handicap at the Ebor meeting, albeit on much quicker ground and Times Edition comes here on a run reading 2221, but all at Class 5 and she's up four classes here which will probably be the undoing of her, despite her good record under today's conditions...

..leaving Sparks Fly as the best suited from that graphic. Times Edition is also at the 'wrong end' of the stalls, as is Canoodled, but unlike the race above, we should have a decent tempo from flag fall...

...with the subsequent pace/draw heat map...

...finalising my decision to go with (2) Grey's Monument, (3) Sparks Fly and (4) Qirat

Leg 4 @ 2.38, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ novice stakes over 1m6f...

If the last race looked like it might be dominated by Ralph Beckett, then this one might go to the Gosdens who run both Fireblade and Faifa here. Fireblade is by Frankel and was finishing strongly when a runner-up beaten by just a neck over 1m4f at Ascot on heavy ground at the start of the months; the drop in class might just lead him to break his duck today. Stablemate Faifa actually steps up in class and whilst running to a reasonable level so far, probably has a bit more to prove under these conditions, but stayed on well to finish third at Doncaster in a Class 2 race two starts ago.

Mr Hampstead was deemed worthy of a run in the Derby and the Gr 2 Queens Vase this summer, but was well beaten in both, beating just one runner home on each occasion. There's obviously a belief that he has something, but might need a run after over four months off. Games People Play was disappointing on heavy ground last time out, but was a decent second of fourteen on soft ground at Carlisle seven weeks ago, albeit at Class 5. Rained Off, Rose Coloured Girl and Volakes complete the line-up with little of note from this trio so far.

I'll stick with the Gosden pair here; (1) Fireblade and (4) Faifa with (5) Games People Play as my backup

Leg 5 @ 3.08, a 6-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

He might well be 9yrs old now, but Makanah is running well, having finished 1292 in his last four. The two runner-up defeats were only by half a length including a strong run on heavy ground at Leicester last time out. Changeofmind's recent results can be a bit misleading as he has been racing at a higher grade, since finishing second of nine at Hamilton on heavy ground in August (three lengths ahead of Count D'Orsay, a 14/1 winner I selected yesterday). Blind Beggar was also a heavy ground runner-up on his last run, finishing just a head in front of the re-opposing Fantasy Master.

Fantasy Master now re-opposes Blind Beggar some 3lbs better off and has a 50% place strike rate here (6 from 12 inc 2 wins) over course and distance, but his record on soft/heavy ground isn't as good as Blind Beggar's...

The pace and draw stats point to higher drawn runners faring best here, as do those who race in mid-division and in Changeofmind and Makanah, we have two runners who tick both boxes...

and I'll take this pair; (1) Makanah and (2) Changeofmind

Leg 6 @ 3.38, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Course and distance winner Smooth Silesie has certainly been kept busy and today will be her eleventh run in the last four months. She has finished in the first three home in eight of those ten starts and has finished 1311622 in her last seven and she'll probably go well again today. Albegone doesn't win very often, but it's place from we need for this column and he has been the runner-up in four of his last seven races and it's a similar story for Wrestling Revenue, who is 1322 from his last four, but the going might undo him here.



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Enchanted Night produced her best run for some time when third of eleven on soft ground at Yarmouth last week but races from 4lbs out of the handicap. The one to beat here might well be the 3yo Collusion who got caught very late on in a 0.75 length defeat on handicap debut on soft ground at Yarmouth last week. He steps beck in trip here, which should help and he should strip fitter for the run, as he'd been off the track for eight months prior to last week's effort. He goes again off the same mark here and if running this 5f like he ran the first 5f last week, might be tough to beat, especially in the mood Rossa Ryan rides with right now...

That said, Albegone also has some decent stats to call upon...

So I'm going to take (7) Collusion as my likely winner, along with regular placers (2) Albegone and (1) Smooth Silesie in the hope that the latter can import some of her good recent A/W form to the turf. Enchanted Night interested me on her stats and I think she might be better than her 33/1 (just before 10am) price might suggest. She receives chunks of weight all round, her jockey takes another 5lbs off, but she does run from outside of the handicap. She won't go on my ticket today, but I might just have a small (very small!) E/W punt on her

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) El Matador, (4) Love Beach & (5) Opportunity for me here.

Leg 2: (3) Asteverdi & (5) Shaladar

Leg 3: (2) Grey's Monument, (3) Sparks Fly & (4) Qirat

Leg 4: (1) Fireblade, (4) Faifa & (5) Games People Play

Leg 5: (1) Makanah & (2) Changeofmind

Leg 6: (1) Smooth Silesie, (2) Albegone & (7) Collusion

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!
Chris

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2 replies
  1. shorts65
    shorts65 says:

    Two, hopefully, quick and easy questions

    1 – Approx what time are Tix Picks put online? They rarely, if ever seem to be there approx 9am when I am finalising my bets for the day

    2 – Have we seen the end of Racing Insights?

    John W

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