Tag Archive for: Olly Murphy

Monday Musings: The Glory Trail

Amid all the excitements supplied by the multi-century teams of Willie Mullins, Gary and Josh Moore and Olly Murphy, not to mention Dan Skelton, on Sandown’s National Hunt season finale, one name stood out as swimming against the tide, writes Tony Stafford.

Imagine you’ve been in the UK for just short of three years and built up a team from nothing into the 60’s at a new base in Newmarket, understandingly vacated at the end of 2024 by Newmarket doyen William Jarvis.

A score of one in his feet-finding debut campaign in late 2022, was followed by 16 and then 37 last year. Dylan Cunha, the South African Group 1 trainer in his home country and a pilot in his spare time almost, is already on 12 in the fledgling 2025 season.

But he was merely an intruder between the big boys’ free-for-all on Saturday with the only jumper he has in his yard. It’s a shame in fact that he did try the capable but inconsistent flat handicapper Ace Rothstein in one race over hurdles at Kempton in the 2023/24 season as his story in terms of jumping success would be even more remarkable.

The Ace proved more like a Joker on his hurdling appearance and is no longer part of the Phantom House Stables team, but one horse who is, Mahons Glory, has been showing that affable Dylan could train the stable cat if there were a suitable race in the Calendar.

A few weeks ago, as I mentioned here before, my friend Malcolm Caine organised a ticket for me at an upmarket Central London venue a few days before the Cheltenham Festival. It was enjoyable and quite amusing when shortly after those mostly perplexing races in Gloucestershire were concluded, Malcolm called. He said: “I took a note of every horse the panel mentioned on the day and none of them won!” I’ll take his word for it and in case you didn’t catch the roll-call last time, I’ll leave it out for now.

When you attend such an event, it’s Hobson’s Choice whom your immediate fellow-guests are. In my case it was a very nice chap called Seamus, not Irish except by pedigree. He said he and two other pals who were further around to his right were owners with Dylan Cunha.

He, and obviously they, were still buzzing from the victory at Leicester the previous day of Mahons Glory, a nine-year-old horse they had previously in training with Patrick Neville.

He had lost his form and become erratic, especially at the start, so they entered him for the January Online sale at Tattersalls – and he was unsold at 900gns. <I wonder if I’d have persuaded one of my pals to bid a grand whether they would have let him go?>.

Anyway, nobody did, and as owners with interests in a few horses with Dylan they suggested sending the 130-rated chaser to him. Quite a left-field idea, but an inspired one as it turns out.

At Leicester, as Seamus told me at the Preview, they were anxious at the start but Mahons Glory jumped off alertly under Lee Edwards, went to the front, and despite the tendency to jump to his left, he did so with rare exuberance and was never in danger of defeat, beating the Dan Skelton-trained Major Fortune by three-quarters of a length at a rewarding 16/1.

Dylan found a less taxing race for his following run, a three-horse affair at Stratford, this time going left-handed and again he made all, this time with The Wolf, in the stable of another of Saturday’s stars, Olly Murphy, and ridden by Sean Bowen a well-beaten second.

On Saturday, just another 3lb higher, Mahons Glory was again among the outsiders, but you wouldn’t have known it. In the morning, I had my regular pre-race chat with Dylan and he suggested Sandown’s track and fences would be to his liking. He loved the seven in a line down the back straight and it was only when he came to the Pond, three from home, that the tendency to jump left took its toll.

Shrewdly, Caoilin Quinn, already in the winner’s circle in the opener with 20/1 top-weight Give It To Me Oj in the novice handicap hurdle final, kept Mark Of Gold tight to the inside, and those wayward left-hand leaps, where Sandown’s finish edges to the right, were doubly costly to the front-runner.

Mark Of Gold got to the front before the last and looked sure to draw away but Edwards got Mahons Glory running again and was reducing the arrears all the way to the line, going under by less than a length.

On a day where some of the participants would have cost around £500k and even more, a 900gns chuck-out trained by a man with his sole proper jumper nearly stole the limelight.

Just for the record, when discussing his four other runners on the day, he singled out the previously unsuccessful Waistcoat in a handicap at Leicester as his pick. Reasoning that if Joe Leavy could hold on to him behind what he thought would be a headlong gallop, he could come through to win. He proved exactly right – at 8/1!

I was speaking to some people earlier in the week and one or two suggested that if Willie Mullins duly caught and passed Dan Skelton as the numbers in the right races suggested he must, he might be the object of booing from the Sandown crowd.

Anything but. His genial nature and refusal to claim victory even after South African-owned Il Etait Temps came from a long way back to swamp Jonbon for speed in the bet365 Celebration Chase with its £99k to the winner – he also picked up 18 grand for 3rd with Energumene – sealed the deal. Not a bad effort first time back in a Grade 1 with a top rival to catch, Jonbon losing for the first time away from Cheltenham.

But no, life today is all about winning and if you have overwhelming tools with which to achieve it, good for you. Mullins has worked for many years to build up such a superiority in Ireland, even over Gordon Elliott, and the fact he can come here as a late-season afterthought to beat the best of whatever we have to offer, has its obvious merits too. Especially to the sports fans of the 2020s!

Not even a Foinavon moment, say at the Pond fence, which Dan Skelton might have dreamt about, or indeed a void race as we’ve been encountering rather more often of late, would have mattered. Second to fifth behind the Olly Murphy/ Sean Bowen representative Resplendent Grey in the bet365 Gold Cup built up the lead almost to 200k, and the last race win where his Jump Allen saw off Dan’s Mostly Sunny lent an inevitable footnote to the season.

There was a television interview with Jump Allen’s rider, Harry Cobden, who reckoned that Bowen would be champion jockey for the next ten years, reasoning that he and Harry Skelton, the only other obvious contenders, according to him, were otherwise engaged – mopping up the massive prize money Skelton collected in this first season of the David Power Cup for points gained in big races.

Maybe it would have been wise for Cobden to keep his mouth shut. After his tour de force bringing home Resplendent Grey from a seemingly losing position behind Mullins’ Rachael Blackmore-ridden Lombron from the final fence, more big race rides will be coming his way from major stables.

*

With the two Guineas races coming up next weekend, it was salutary that Aidan O’Brien, seemingly out of form, nipped in with a Navan favourites hat-trick on Saturday, via Charles Darwin, impressively in the six-furlong maiden, Whistlejacket in the Listed three-year-old sprint, and Kyprios in his regular season-opener in the 1m6f Vintage Crop Stakes.

Watch out John and Thady. If you thought the 2,000 was at the mercy of Field Of Gold, Aidan’s Twain will have been tuned to the minute. Big John’s first 2,000 win is no gimme!

Murphy proud to have played big part in Bowen title triumph

Olly Murphy is backing Sean Bowen to stay on top of the jockeys’ tree for many years to come after he was crowned champion for the first time.

An untimely injury derailed last season’s charge for the title as he had to settle for second behind good friend Harry Cobden, but Bowen left nothing to chance this time around as he powered his way to first place in the jockeys’ standings.

A fine year for both Bowen and his chief ally in the training ranks was capped off at Sandown on Saturday when Resplendent Grey fought off the Willie Mullins invasion to claim the bet365 Gold Cup and Murphy was proud of the part he played in helping his stable jockey to the trophy.

“It’s been an unbelievable year and I texted Sean on Saturday morning and said sorry I hadn’t provided him with a Grade One winner, but we’d just about done everything else,” said Murphy.

“I’m very proud of him and I texted him when he was second last year to say keep your chin up and next year we’ll be there polishing that trophy. I quoted that message in the WhatsApp I sent him on Saturday morning and it’s great to be able to celebrate his achievement – no one deserves it more than him.

“We’ve had a phenomenal year and the horses have just kept rolling. I know I keep saying it, but I love working with Sean and we get on really well.

“His main attribute is that when he gets down off a loser, he’s the most unbelievable man to speak with owners after a horse gets beat. In two minutes, he can convince an owner that in three weeks’ time their horse will win – and that’s so important in an industry where you’re trying to provide entertainment, but more often than not, you lose.

“I think in sport there has to be a line of respect and have trust in each other. I have enormous trust in him and I would like to think he has trust in me and I think that is shown by our figures and winners this year.

“We’ve won plenty of major handicaps and had graded winners and I’m aware more than anyone we haven’t had that Grade One winner, but they will come and we’re getting there.”

Murphy also hopes his fruitful association with the new champion jockey can continue for many years to come as he continues to grow his Warren Chase operation.

When asked if he could see Bowen retaining his title over the coming years, Murphy answered: “Why not!

“But in order for him to keep winning, you need a big yard behind you and everyone wants Sean Bowen’s services.

“Hopefully, he’s going to work for me for the next 10 years and I’m very lucky to have him as my stable jockey and I’d like to think he thinks he’s lucky to have my stable and owners behind him as well.

“If my owners keep getting behind me like they are and the horses stay healthy, then they are going to have the best jockey in England in their corner. Hopefully, the future is bright and he’s just an extremely popular young lad.”

With the jumping action now taking a brief pause, Bowen will jet off to Tenerife for his stag do, but Murphy will be missing from the trip, electing for a shorter flight to Ireland rather than the Canaries.

Murphy added: “Regrettably, I’m not going on the stag do, I’m going point-to-pointing in Ireland and probably buying a few more horses. I got let off lightly I think, but hopefully he has a good time, comes back in one piece and we’ll be all systems go to start again next weekend at Uttoxeter.”

Resplendent Grey seals golden season for Sean Bowen

Resplendent Grey was an appropriate winner of the bet365 Gold Cup for new champion jockey Sean Bowen and chief supporter Olly Murphy.

Murphy has provided Bowen with over 100 winners as the Welshman secured a first title, and it was apt the two took out the last major handicap of the season together.

Bowen has made a name for himself for winning from unpromising positions and this was another one.

While Resplendent Grey travelled better than he had done all season in first-time cheekpieces, he was still flat out as Rachael Blackmore cruised to the front on Lombron.

However, with Bowen, who heads off for his stag party in Tenerife on Sunday, still in striking distance after jumping the last, there appeared to be an inevitability about the result and the 9-2 chance won by a length.

Resplendent Grey still had work to do jumping the last
Resplendent Grey still had work to do jumping the last (Steven Paston/PA)

Given Willie Mullins was second, third, fourth and fifth with Lombron, High Class Hero, Spanish Harlem and Grangeclare West, he was confirmed as champion trainer for a second successive year.

Murphy said: “That was brilliant. I told him I wasn’t going on his stag do yesterday but I might go now!

“What can I say to top today off, for Sean more importantly, today is his day. I’ve been a small cog in his wheel, I’m very proud of him and he’s been a massive part of Warren Chase.

“I’m an emotional man when I’m happy, I always have been. There’s a big team behind me and a big team behind Sean. Andrew Thornton (Gold Cup-winning jockey) does an awful lot with him, I’m just a small part but he’s champion jockey and just won a big race, so it’s brilliant.

“You have to pinch yourself sometimes, I’m very hard on myself. I text Sean this morning to say ‘I’m sorry I haven’t given him a Grade One winner this year’ but that was great.”

Sean Bowen with the bet365 Gold Cup
Sean Bowen with the bet365 Gold Cup (Steven Paston/PA)

Bowen told ITV Racing: “That’s amazing, it’s been the best two weeks of my life and I hope it carries on forever!

“To have my family here is great but I’ve got to give a big mention to Olly Murphy, how someone has kept his horses in that good a form all season I’ll never know.

“He’s got a 25 per cent strike-rate which is unheard of really and 56 per cent of the horses he has run have won which is also unheard of, so he’s doing something right.”

Bowen four-timer features half-brother to Douvan and Jonbon

On the eve of being crowned champion jockey for the first time, Sean Bowen lit up Perth with a four-timer, with bumper winner Wilstar justifying his tall reputation.

As a half-brother to multiple Grade One winners Douvan and Jonbon, Olly Murphy’s youngster has plenty to live up to.

Sent off favourite for his debut at Warwick, he finished third, form franked by the winner subsequently, and the punters kept the faith, making him the 6-4 market leader in the Goodbye Charlo Thanks For Everything Open National Hunt Flat Race.

Wilstar briefly looked in a bit of bother but found an impressive turn of foot to go and win by three lengths.

Both Bowen and Murphy celebrated four winners. They teamed up in the opening Campbell & Son Roofing Novices’ Hurdle on Junker d’Allier (4-7 favourite) and the Alastair Down Novices’ Handicap Chase with Heard That (5-2 favourite).

Bowen also rode Fairlawn Flyer (11-4 favourite) to what looked an unlikely success in the QuinnBet Highland National Handicap Chase for his father and brother, Peter and Michael, while Murphy employed Lewis Saunders to win on Wa Wa (15-2) in the Campbell & Son Roofing Handicap Hurdle.

Strong Leader fancied to thrive again in Liverpool

Olly Murphy is banking on a return to Aintree inspiring a resurgence for defending Ivy Liverpool Hurdle champion Strong Leader.

One of the Warren Chase handler’s star performers, the eight-year-old has regularly shown his best form on Merseyside, with Murphy saying there will be “no excuses” as he eyes a reproduction of his brilliant win in this race 12 months ago.

“Left-handed flat tracks seem to be the key to him so we’ve got no excuses here, and I won’t be making excuses afterwards,” said Murphy.

“He’s going back to a track that suits him, he’s in very good form and he loves the spring. It’s a left-handed track and good ground suits him well so we’re looking forward to running him.

“He loves a little bit of nicer ground, certainly more than some in there. If he turns up on his A-game then he’ll run very well.”

It was Paul Gilligan’s Buddy One and Henry de Bromhead’s Hiddenvalley Lake who filled the positions behind Strong Leader 12 months ago and both are in opposition once again, while Willie Mullins pitches in exciting five-year-old Kitzbuhel, who is unbeaten in two stars so far for Closutton.

Also among the Irish challenge is Gordon Elliott’s duo of Teahupoo and The Wallpark, second and third behind Bob Olinger in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and now tasked with enhancing the handler’s fine record in the race.

Elliott said: “Both are in great form since Cheltenham. They both ran good races in the Stayers’ Hurdle and there was no excuses, they were just beaten by a better horse on the day.

“It’s a race we’ve had success in before and hopefully one of them can get their head up on Saturday.”

Also on a raiding mission is Joseph O’Brien’s Home By The Lee, who had twice accounted for Stayers’ hero Bob Olinger on home soil this season but was hampered by a faller and unseated J J Slevin with a circuit still to run at Prestbury Park.

O’Brien said: “We’ve been very happy with him since Cheltenham. He’s been very good this year and it was frustrating the way things happened in the Stayers’ Hurdle, but that’s the way it goes and we’re still excited by his prospects for Aintree and the rest of the spring.”

Dan Skelton’s Gwennie May Boy was a handicap winner at this meeting last year and 12 months on is back in a Grade One after impressing in Haydock’s Rendlesham Hurdle in February.

“I think freshness will count a lot at Aintree this year and we’ve kept him fresh and well,” said Skelton.

“He looks great, won at the meeting last year and gets the trip really well. I don’t think a bit of nicer ground will be an issue and I’m looking forward to running him.”

Meanwhile, Harry Fry won this race with If The Cap Fits in 2019 and now attempts to repeat the feat with the in-form Altobelli.

“We put him in the Aintree Hurdle just in case, but I’ve always been keen to step him up in trip,” said Fry.

“The form of his two wins at Ascot has worked out well. It would require another step forward going into Grade One company, but he’s on an upward curve and we were keen to come to Aintree as a fresher horse as opposed to having run him at Cheltenham.”

Strong Leader ‘fresh’ for chance to retain Liverpool Hurdle title

Strong Leader, successful in the Grade One Ivy Liverpool Hurdle 12 months ago, is among 16 entries for this year’s renewal.

Olly Murphy is hoping the fact he skipped the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham will play into his hands and accepts the eight-year-old will have “no excuses” should he be beaten, given everything looks to be in his favour.

“He’s good, he’s trained very well for the last six weeks and obviously this has been our plan for a while,” said Murphy.

“We skipped Cheltenham to keep him fresh, he’s back on a flat track, so we’re going there with no excuses.

“We’re looking forward to running him. Obviously, it is looking like a warm race but we’re going there with a good each-way chance.”

Murphy’s old boss Gordon Elliott appears to be the biggest stumbling block, as he has entered both Teahupoo, first and second in the last two renewals of the Stayers’ Hurdle, and The Wallpark, third in that Cheltenham event this term.

Dan Skelton has entered Rendlesham winner Gwennie May Boy and West To The Bridge, while Willie Mullins could step up in class with Coral Cup winner Jimmy Du Seuil.

Home By The Lee, Altobelli, Hiddenvalley Lake and Kitzbuhel are others in contention.

A total of 28 are in the Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, including Nicky Henderson’s four-year-old Lulamba and Fergal O’Brien’s unbeaten Horaces Pearl.

The Stuart Edmunds-trained Miami Magic, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill’s Mister Meggit and Elliott’s Romeo Coolio are also in the two-and-a-half-mile Grade One.

There are only seven entries in the Rosconn Group Maghull Novices’ Chase, which sees a potential rematch between Only By Night and L’Eau Du Sud, second and fourth in the Arkle.

Gidleigh Park, Kalif Du Berlais, Special Cadeau, Touch Me Not and Brookie are the other possibles.

Strong Leader captaining Olly Murphy squad for Aintree

Strong Leader is set to captain a stacked Aintree team for Olly Murphy when he defends his Liverpool Hurdle crown on Merseyside.

The eight-year-old gave the Warren Chase handler just his second Grade One triumph when galloping to victory in the three-mile event 12 months ago and was last seen finishing fourth in the Cleeve Hurdle on Cheltenham Festival Trials day.

Like many of Murphy’s string, Strong Leader skipped an appearance at the Cheltenham Festival in order to head to Aintree fresh and the trainer is relishing returning his star hurdler to a venue where he has some exceptional form figures.

“Strong Leader has been trained for the Liverpool Hurdle and he loves it there on a flatter track,” said Murphy.

“I’m really looking forward to running him and he’s just come into his coat and is looking well. When he’s good, he’s good, but when he’s not, he’s not. If he turns up on his best day, then he will go there with a good each-way chance.”

Murphy could also be represented in Grade One contests at Aintree by Fingle Bridge – last seen beating Paul Nicholls’ Regent’s Stroll in an Exeter Listed race – and National Hunt Chase fourth Resplendent Grey, who could be equipped with cheekpieces for a shot at the Huyton Asphalt Franny Blennerhassett Memorial Mildmay Novices’ Chase on April 4.

Murphy said: “Fingle Bridge will run in the two-and-a-half-mile novice hurdle (Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, April 5) and he looked very good on his last start at Exeter. He would want a little bit of cut in the ground, but he’s a horse we think the world of.

“We might run Resplendent Grey in the three-mile Grade One and we might just fit him with a pair of cheekpieces. He ran very well to finish where he did in the National Hunt Chase, considering where he came from.

“We’ll also have plenty for the handicaps, Go Dante will run in the two or two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle after winning the Imperial Cup and Wade Out will run in the two-and-a-half handicap also – and he could have a nice mark. He’s won three novice hurdles this season.”

Also on course for an appearance on Merseyside is Murphy’s recent Greatwood Gold Cup scorer Booster Bob, who fresh from his remarkable Newbury success could tackle the Grand National fences in the Randox Supporting Prostate Cancer UK Topham Handicap Chase (April 4) or step up to three miles for the valuable William Hill Handicap Chase 24 hours later.

“Booster Bob will either run in the Topham or the three-mile handicap chase,” added Murphy.

“Jumping is not the issue, so I would have no problem running in the Topham if the ground was slow, but if it wasn’t, I would say he is more likely to run in the handicap chase on the Saturday.”

Go Dante returns to form for Imperial Cup repeat

Go Dante produced a perfectly-timed run to repeat his victory of last year in the Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle at Sandown.

High Point was the last horse to win successive renewals of the two-mile feature in 1952 and ’53 and it looked as though Go Dante (6-1) was up against it as he had failed to figure in six starts since his victory 12 months ago.

Racing off a 2lb lower mark than last year, Olly Murphy’s charge travelled well throughout in the hands of Sean Bowen as Knickerbockerglory set out his stall early but was starting to feel his prior efforts at the penultimate obstacle.

That allowed Afadil to grab the initiative on the run to the final flight, but Bowen was stoking up Go Dante down the middle of the track and he kept finding for pressure.

Afadil was still in front a matter of strides from the line but Go Dante did not waver and claimed the £51,440 first prize by half a length.

Wreckless Eric finished with a flourish between horses to grab second, with Afadil third and Tintintin taking fourth, while favourite Bo Zenith never featured for trainer Nicky Henderson.

Go Dante (right) finished with a flourish at Sandown
Go Dante (right) finished with a flourish at Sandown (Steven Paston/PA)

Murphy said: “I’ve learned in a short period of time training you have to have a plan, especially for these bigger handicaps, and thankfully the plan today has paid off.

“I have to thank my team at home and he got a very good ride off Sean. I just feel like me and Sean are really working well as a team – he believes in me and I believe in him – and the last two Saturdays have been £100,000 handicaps that we’ve won together.

“He’s been running in these big handicaps all winter long and lost his mind at Ascot, but then ran a little better at Windsor and was in the process of running well in the old Betfair (William Hill Hurdle, Newbury) before nearly getting brought down.

“He’d slipped to a nice mark and I just thought he was starting to click and he loves this place. I was nervous about the ground otherwise I would have been very sweet on him, but he was fantastic.

“He stays very well over two and staying seems to have won him the race today and I think the ground is slower than anticipated. He was sharp and right for today and he’s picked up a big pot, it’s nice the plan has paid off.

A £100,000 bonus is on offer should Go Dante follow up in the William Hill County Hurdle at Cheltenham next week, but Murphy rates a quickfire return unlikely at present.

He said: “He’s had a hard race today, like he did last year, but I confirmed him today and I said to Barbara (Hester, Owner) that he won’t get in unless he was to win. We’ll have to see how he is, but I imagine he probably won’t run. Today was his main target and it is job done as far as I’m concerned.

“He’s been a star for us and he’s won two Imperial Cups and two huge handicaps, but you know what, I still thought he’d reach a higher level than what he’s reached. He was riddled with injuries as a younger horse and I have to thank my assistant who has done all the work and got him spot on for today.”

Go Dante (right) on his way to victory last year
Go Dante (right) on his way to victory last year (Steven Paston/PA)

Bowen said: “It’s an incredible bit of training from Olly and since his run in the Greatwood (at Cheltenham in November), the plan has been to come here today.

“He’s a horse who needs things to go his way and he loves a stiff track and the ground soft. I was more confident today than I was last year and he just went round in the race better, I always felt the winner whereas I didn’t last year.

“The ground was horrific last year and I’m not sure many horses love that, but this was just soft ground which he enjoys and it was a great performance.

“To have him ready for today was brilliant from Olly, but to be honest they haven’t missed a week all season. Fair play, it’s some effort to keep horses in such good nick for so long and hopefully he can keep doing that for the next few seasons.”

Bowen and Murphy’s partnership has reaped plenty of rewards this term, with the rider currently more than 20 winners ahead of his jockeys’ championship rival Harry Skelton.

He added: “It’s amazing really when you’re trying to go for a jockeys’ title and I’ve ridden over 80 winners for Olly this season which is an incredible amount for one yard. You need a yard like his to win a championship and thankfully we’re building numbers now.”

More on Price Movement in NH Markets, Part 2

Last week I wrote the first of two articles looking at price movements from Opening Show odds to SP in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. This is the follow-up piece expanding on that initial research. As before, the data has been taken from the last five full years, covering 2020 to 2024. I have used William Hill bookmaker prices, and I will use ‘OS’ to denote the Opening Show odds.

To begin, I would like to look at differing race types. Specifically, I want to compare chases with hurdles to see what percentage of these runners shortened in price, lengthened in price (drifted), or stayed the same price, when comparing their OS to their SP.

 

 

As the graph indicates, there was a bigger percentage of drifters in hurdle races compared to chases, and hence fewer hurdlers shortened in price compared to chasers. If we look at non-handicap hurdle races versus handicap hurdle races it can be seen that in non-handicaps 49.4% of all runners drifted, whereas in handicaps the figure stands at 46.2%. Interestingly, this percentage ‘swing’ is reversed when we look at non-handicap chases versus handicap chases. The splits this time see more drifters in handicap chases (44.7%) compared to 41.1% for non-handicap chases. This is a good example of where we can see the importance of digging down into the long grass. We saw this in the first article when noting the differences between certain courses, in the splits for class of Race, and in how the OS odds affect the likely direction of any potential price movement.

I also looked at bumper (NH Flat) races where 47.9% of runners drifted from OS to SP compared with 38% that shortened (just 14.1% remained the same price).

Next, I would like to see there is anything material in terms of day of the week. I am going to concentrate solely on the percentage of drifters on each of the seven days my suspicion being that Saturday will have the lowest percentage, due to having stronger markets. Let’s see:

 

 

Saturday does indeed have the lowest figure which correlates with the race class and course data shared in part one last week. Saturdays tend to have better races when the day is viewed as a whole, and more of the top tier courses are in action on this day of the week, too.

In that prior piece it was noted that Cheltenham was the racecourse that had the smallest percentage of drifters out of all the courses. With the Cheltenham Festival roughly three weeks away, I thought it might be helpful to see what the splits are in terms of runners that shortened in price, lengthened in price or stayed the same price, when comparing their OS to their final Starting Price Odds at the Festival. Here they are:

 

 

This is quite a change from what we have seen so far. Horses remaining the same price from OS to SP have occurred more than either of the other groups. Horses that lengthened in price have a figure 16% lower than when looking at NH races as a whole. I had expected the percentage figure for drifters to be somewhat lower than the norm due to the strength of the Festival markets, but I had not anticipated as much as 16%. I also did not expect the 'stayed same price' group to come out clearly ahead of the others. It has made me think that maybe I write an article where I do a deeper dive into the Cheltenham Festival in terms of price movements, incorporating early morning odds moves too. More of that to come perhaps.

Time to switch attention now to some trainer data. To begin with here are the trainers with the highest percentage of runners that have shortened in price between OS and the ‘off’. To qualify a trainer must have had at least 200 runners during the period of study:

 

 

13 of the 20 trainers have higher percentages for shorteners than for drifters. When I looked at flat trainer data back in the Autumn only two trainers managed that feat. Four of the ‘big guns’ - Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton - are absent from the list, so what about them? Here are their splits coupled with a selection of some other familiar names not seen as yet (again the table is ordered by % of shorteners):

 

 

It is quite interesting to see Skelton, Nicholls and Henderson with the smallest percentages for horses that have shortened in price from OS to SP. It is also interesting when we compare their shorteners with their drifters in terms of value by using the A/E index. The graph below shows the splits:

 

 

For all three there has been far better value in their runners that were backed in between OS and SP compared to those that drifted. Indeed, you would have made a tiny profit to BSP on all Paul Nicholls runners that shortened in price from OS to SP.

In terms of negatives beware Henderson drifters in chases: of the 283 chasers that drifted 43 won (SR 15.2%) but they accrued losses of £58.26 (ROI -20.6%) to BSP. In addition, Henderson non-handicappers (any NH race type) that drifted have also proved to be poor value losing over 18p in the £.

As far as Paul Nicholls is concerned a drifter is a bad sign if ridden by stable jockey Harry Cobden. Although just over 20% of them have still won, backing all 834 qualifiers would have seen a loss to BSP of £184.51 (ROI -22.1%). Conversely, drifters from the Nicholls yard not ridden by Cobden have won more often (21.5%) and proved profitable to BSP to the tune of £108.80 (ROI +19.3%). These runners would secured a blind profit to Industry SP of around 6p in the £ as well. Meanwhile, if a Dan Skelton runner drifts at Cheltenham, beware, as only four of the 87 have won for losses of over 66p in the £.

My final piece of ‘drifting’ data for these three trainers comes in the form of their record in Class 1 races when this occurs. Their results are shown below:

 

 

Henderson’s record is modest but not terrible, but for the other two the figures are very poor. I would not be keen in the near future to back a Skelton or Nicholls drifter in a Class 1 event.

Sticking with these trainers and Class 1 events, let us see their performance when their runners shorten in price before the ‘off’. Unsurprisingly, we see a contrasting picture to the earlier one:

 

 

All three have edged into profit with solid figures across the board. Clearly, for these three trainers in top level races the strength of their runners in the market just prior to the off is very important.

Olly Murphy is another trainer who has a couple of stats worth mentioning. Interestingly, his drifters have won almost as often as those that have shortened in price – 18.2% versus 20.6%. Given those numbers, it won't shock to learn that his drifters made a positive return of 5p in the £ whereas his shorteners lost 20p in the £ (to BSP). Sticking with those runners that have shortened in price, when they started favourite they broke even. When they were not favourite losses have been 27p in the £.

Lastly in this piece, I want to focus on Irish maestro Willie Mullins as there are a few useful titbits when it comes to his stats. There are three powerful stats of which we ought to be aware:

1. Any Mullins drifter at the Cheltenham Festival is not a good sign. 100 horses have drifted from OS to SP at the March showpiece of which only 11 won (SR 11%) for a BSP loss of £43.36 (ROI -43.4%).

2. Don’t be lured in by bigger-priced runners from Mullins ‘being backed’. Horses that shortened in price from an OS of 18/1 or bigger are 0 from 54.

3. When one of Mullins' horses shortens in price from OS to SP take note of the jockey. The table below shows why we want Paul Townend on board:

 

**

This article has highlighted some interesting patterns in terms of how the market moves during that brief period between the opening show and the start of the race. I think some of the trainer data for Messrs Henderson, Nicholls, Skelton, Murphy and Mullins could prove really useful and help to point us in the right direction when contemplating the timing / placing of our bets.

- DR

 

Sean Bowen celebrates landmark 1,000th career winner

Sean Bowen, who is out in front in this season’s race to be champion jockey, brought up his 1,000th career winner with a double at Fakenham on Friday.

The son of trainer Peter Bowen, the 27-year-old began his career as a conditional with Paul Nicholls and was champion conditional in 2014-2015, aged just 17, capping his season by partnering the multiple champion trainer’s Just A Par to victory in the season-ending bet365 Gold Cup.

Clan Des Obeaux and Cyrname are just two of the Ditcheat stars he has won on among his 1,000 victories, while he recorded his first Grade One winner in the 2019 Liverpool Hurdle aboard Harry Fry’s If The Cap Fits.

Further top-level success with Fry was provided by Metier, with Hughie Morrison’s Not So Sleepy in the 2023 Fighting Fifth Hurdle and another Liverpool Hurdle triumph with Strong Leader last year Bowen’s other wins at the highest level.

Sean Bowen wins on Strong Leader at Aintree
Sean Bowen wins on Strong Leader at Aintree (Mike Egerton/PA)

He registered a career-best 157 winners when finishing second in a season-long battle with Harry Cobden for the jockeys’ title in 2023-24, but is 12 ahead of Harry Skelton in the current standings as he searches to become champion for the first time.

On reaching the milestone, Bowen said: “I’m delighted to have achieved 1,000 winners, it feels like a huge milestone.

“There is no doubt that my family have played a massive part in my journey. From buying us ponies and taking us across the country, even all the way up to Scotland to go pony racing and then helping when I began as a point-to-point rider, it all gave me a big head start.

“Everything has come from my parents, and they are the reasons I am where I am now. My brothers have also done so much. Mickey, James and I used to ride up the gallops when we were younger and as well as being great fun it was all good experience.”

Speaking to Great British Racing, he continued: “My next goal is to become champion jockey, it is something I have wanted for a very long time so I am very focused on achieving that after a tough battle for the title last year. It has been a great season so far, so hopefully becoming champion jockey something I can achieve. I would also love to have a Cheltenham Festival winner.”

It was perhaps fitting that the landmark winner for Bowen came aboard Olly Murphy’s 11-10 bumper favourite Kefir d’Oudairies.

Bowen and Murphy have struck up a fine association over the past few years and the Warren Chase handler hailed the “ideal role model” with an “unbelievable will to win”.

Murphy said: “It’s brilliant to see and he is riding as well as anyone in the country at the moment and for a young lad to get to 1000 winners as quickly as he has is quite remarkable.

“He’s a massive part of the success we’ve had at Warren Chase in the last few years and I love working with him.

“He’s got an unbelievable work ethic and an unbelievable will to win and he’s a fella you ideally want on your side more than not. He’s the ideal role model for any young lad coming up through the ranks.

“He’s as dedicated as they come and mad on his fitness and his attitude to the job is second to none. I’m very lucky to have him riding my horses, it’s a huge achievement and here’s to the next 1000.”

Fingle proves Bridge too far for Regent’s Stroll at Exeter

Fingle Bridge inflicted a second successive defeat on the expensively-bought Regent’s Stroll in the trustatrader.com Novices’ Hurdle at Exeter.

A dual bumper winner for Paul Nicholls last season, Regent’s Stroll was sold as part of the Chris Giles dispersal last summer and was knocked down for £660,000.

He made an impressive debut over hurdles at Newbury in November, but could finish only fourth behind The New Lion as a hot favourite for the Challow Novices’ Hurdle at the Berkshire circuit over Christmas and therefore lined up on a recovery mission in Devon.

An 8-11 shot in the colours of the late John Hales, Regent’s Stroll made much of the running under Harry Cobden, but it was clear in the back straight that he had a real race on his hands after being challenged and passed by the Olly Murphy-trained Fingle Bridge (7-1).

The latter was stepping up to Listed class after low-key wins at Uttoxeter and Market Rasen and proved up to the task, knuckling down from the final flight in the hands of Sean Bowen to see off Regent’s Stroll by two lengths.

Coral cut Fingle Bridge’s odds for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival to 20-1 from 40-1 – but he appears unlikely to turn up at Prestbury Park.

Murphy said: “He surprised me in the fact that I didn’t think he was sharp enough to win a pattern race over two miles, but I wasn’t surprised with the amount of ability he showed because he’s a horse we always loved.

“He was off the track for two years before this season and he is fragile, but he’s obviously got a lot of ability and hopefully, if he stays in one piece, he’s got a very a bright future, as I think he’ll improve for another half a mile and softer ground as well.

“I’d love to go to Aintree with him if it was soft over two-and-a-half (miles). I’m just not sure how he’d handle the undulations in Cheltenham because he’s got a very high action, unless it was very, very soft ground.”

Only By Night returns to the Exeter winner's enclosure
Only By Night returns to the Exeter winner’s enclosure (Graham Clark/PA)

Only By Night is likely to head to Cheltenham after landing the other Listed prize on the card – the Agatha Christie Mares’ Novices’ Chase.

Victorious on each of her two previous starts over fences, including a Grade Two win at Cork in December, Gavin Cromwell’s charge was a 10-11 favourite to complete her hat-trick and dug deep when challenged by fellow Irish raider Kilbarry Saint on the run-in to prevail by a length.

“I’m delighted to see her win,” said Cromwell.

“They went a good gallop I suppose and the front two (Only By Night and Fun Fun Fun) took each other on. I thought Sean Bowen was very good on the eventual second and I thought for a second after the last he was going to come and nick it, but our mare was brave and pulled out a bit more going to the line.”

Only By Night was cut to 6-1 from 8-1 by Coral for the Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham, a race Cromwell won last season with Limerick Lace and he looks set to be well represented in the Grade Two contest again.

He added: “She’d be on the list for that along with Bioluminescence, Limerick Lace and Brides Hill. They’ll all have entries anyway and we’ll see where we are nearer the time.”

Gunsight Ridge returns to form with gutsy Sandown success

Gunsight Ridge thundered back to his best as Olly Murphy and owners Grahame and Diana Whateley enjoyed a double at Sandown on Saturday.

The 10-year-old has always been a more than handy performer on his day, but a late fall when staying on at Cheltenham in November left Murphy and his team clambering to restore confidence in their stable veteran.

Pulled-up at Kelso since, a return to Sandown – where he has some smart form figures – proved just the ticket, as he relished the deep conditions in Esher under a fine ride from Gavin Sheehan.

Sent off at 11-1, Gunsight Ridge returned a half-length verdict over the fast-finishing Dr T J Eckleburg, with 2-1 joint-favourites Etalon and Classic Maestro back in third and fourth.

Murphy said: “He’s always had ability and I have always thought he’d win a big handicap at Ascot or something, which he hasn’t done, but he’s been a good old horse and he loves heavy ground.

“Off his Cheltenham run, that wasn’t a surprise, but he just had a fright after Cheltenham the last day. We’ve done plenty of jumping with him and Laura Collett has seen him a bit.

“He’s tripless and he looks like he wants two-and-a-half the way he runs over two miles, then you run him over two-and-a-half and he looks like he doesn’t get home. But when he’s good, he can put in a good performance.”

Murphy had earlier saddled Diamonds For Luck (8-11 favourite) in the Whateley colours to follow up his December Wetherby win in the opening Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Novices’ Hurdle.

The six-year-old, who is well-regarded by connections, could now have earnt himself a crack at a more valuable prize in the spring, having won in good style in the hands of Harry Cobden.

Diamonds For Luck impressed in the opener
Diamonds For Luck impressed in the opener (Steven Paston/PA)

“He’s a nice horse and it didn’t surprise me he’s won a couple now, he’s been improving with each run and he’s handled the very soft well there,” continued Murphy.

“He got beat in his first two starts, which is sometimes disappointing, but doesn’t have to be the worst thing in the world and he has since won at Wetherby and then won well today.

“We can maybe look at a bigger spring target now and come back here for the £100,000 final on the last day of the season, or maybe the boys’ race at Aintree, he’s certainly a horse we think is good enough to run in those types of races.”

On the double, Murphy added: “The Whateleys are good supporters of mine and want to be winning on Saturdays, they’re nice horses and it’s been a good day.”

Favourite backers also had plenty to cheer when Venetia Williams’ Sole Solution (3-1) gamely followed up a recent win at Hereford in the Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Novices’ Handicap Hurdle.

Red Dirt Road relished conditions at Sandown
Red Dirt Road relished conditions at Sandown (Steven Paston/PA)

Meanwhile, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill’s Red Dirt Road (13-2) picked up the £56,270 on offer to the winner of the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle.

O’Neill said: “It’s a nice pot to win and it’s for great owners who are very patient and leave it to you – and they’ve got a nice horse.

“He loves really soft ground and Jonjo (O’Neill Jr, jockey) said riding him on that felt like what good ground would be like for some horses.

“They were all stacking up turning in but then when they stretched a little bit to the second last, there was only two of them really going with a chance.

“There’s a nice race for him at Uttoxeter (on Midlands Grand National Day) and it is worth a few bob, so it would be a shame to see it go to someone else.”

Strong Aintree defence uppermost in Murphy’s mind

A return to Aintree is top of the agenda for Strong Leader following his fourth-placed finish in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday.

Olly Murphy’s star stayer was a decisive winner of the Liverpool Hurdle on Merseyside last spring and made a fine start to the new campaign by lifting the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury.

But having proved bitterly disappointing as a hot favourite for the Long Walk at Ascot last month, the eight-year-old underwent wind surgery prior to Festival Trials day and while his performance was a step in the right direction, Murphy feels it was still short of his peak.

“The form is there to say that he isn’t at his best at Cheltenham. He didn’t really jump or travel with the same enthusiasm as he does around Newbury or Aintree,” said the trainer.

“I’m not sure what we’re going to do now. It was a better run, but still a way off his best and he is better on a flat track.

“Sean (Bowen) was pleased with his wind, hopefully he’ll step forward again and we’ll look forward to defending our crown at Aintree, where I think he comes into his own.”

Strong Leader is now winless in five starts at Cheltenham, but a return to the Cotswolds for a tilt at the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Festival in March is not out of the question.

Murphy added: “The owners are local to Cheltenham and we’re not ruling out that idea, but ultimately his main aim is Aintree.”

Strong Leader booked for Cleeve Hurdle outing before spring plans

Strong Leader is on course for the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham later this month having undergone a wind operation following his disappointing run in Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle.

A Grade One winner of the Liverpool Hurdle for Olly Murphy last spring, the eight-year-old made a winning return at Newbury in the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle before being sent off favourite for Ascot’s pre-Christmas staying hurdling feature.

However, Strong Leader was unable to make his presence felt, weakening out of it before two out and finishing some 75 lengths adrift of back-to-back winner Crambo, as he came home last of the 10 runners.

Having been found to have a wind issue, he has since had his palate cauterised by renowned expert Ben Brain and is back on track ahead of his intended next assignment at Prestbury Park on January 25.

Strong Leader in action at Aintree last spring
Strong Leader in action at Aintree last spring (Nigel French for The Jockey Club/PA)

“”He’s in good form and I’m really happy with him – he’s now back in full work and aiming for the Cleeve all being well,” said Murphy.

“He’s had his palate cauterised and Ben Brain the wind specialist thought that would help things.

“I would have been more disappointed if he had finished third or fourth at Ascot to be honest, but he just didn’t run his race and he’s come out of it with an excuse and the wind issue.

“I said before the Long Walk I didn’t want to have an excuse and you need to turn up with your A game in those Grade Ones, but he did come back with the wind issue and he’ll head to the Cleeve and we’ll find out a bit more about him then.”

Strong Leader was a gallant third in the Cleeve Hurdle last year, beaten just over a length in a thrilling finish to the Trials day contest, headed only by the winner Noble Yeats and now retired stalwart of the division Paisley Park.

A general 20-1 for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle in March, Murphy believes this year’s Cleeve will indicate whether they go on to have a crack at the day three feature of the Cheltenham Festival or again bide their time and attempt to recreate last year’s Aintree heroics.

“It’s such a wide-open division and every horse in that division can beat each other, but on his day we know what he can do and hopefully we can get him back to the form he was in at Aintree last year,” continued Murphy.

“Every horse is entitled to an off day and he had an off day and came out of it with an issue, so hopefully the Cleeve can be a nice stepping stone on the road to the spring. He ran well in the Cleeve last year

“I think the Cleeve will give us a good idea if he’s a horse for the Stayers’ or we freshen him up and head to Aintree again fresh.”

Murphy rates Strong Leader ‘worthy favourite’ for Long Walk win

A hopeful Olly Murphy “wouldn’t swap” Strong Leader for any of his rivals in the Howden Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday.

The seven-year-old has really come of age since being stepped up to three miles, finishing third in last season’s Cleeve Hurdle on his first start at the distance before rounding off his campaign with a Grade One victory in the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree.

He picked up where he left off when giving weight and a beating to three rivals in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last month and while he is taking nothing for granted, Murphy is confident his stable star will prove hard to beat in this weekend’s traditional pre-Christmas feature.

“I’m looking forward to it, he’s trained really well,” said the Warwickshire-based handler.

“He hasn’t won going right-handed, but I don’t think that should be an issue. He’s got Grade One form, he’s got no penalty and I wouldn’t swap him, albeit it’s a very competitive race.

“I know he’s been a bit hit and miss during his career, but at the trip he hasn’t. I think he’s a worthy favourite, I’m under no illusions that it’s a very competitive race, but he’s in really good form and I’ve got no excuses – win, lose or draw.

“I’m not saying my lad’s a certainty, but if you said I could swap for another horse in the race, I don’t think I would.

“It’s very easy to make an excuse before you get going but he’s trained well, the horses are in good nick, he’s unexposed at the trip and we’re really looking forward to Saturday.”

Chief among Strong Leader’s rivals is Gordon Elliott’s prolific Irish raider The Wallpark.

The six-year-old was rated just 129 when lining up at Kilbeggan in July, but is now some 23lb higher in the weights after completing a four-timer in a Pertemps Qualifier at Cheltenham in October.

He has been snapped up by JP McManus ahead of a significant rise in grade this weekend, and the owner’s racing manager Frank Berry said: “He’s progressive and has had a good year. It’s going to be a step up in class, but Gordon’s happy with him and is hoping for a nice run.

“It’s a grand race and it’s nice to have one in there with some sort of chance.”

The Fergal O’Brien-trained Crambo got the better of popular veteran Paisley Park in a pulsating finish to last year’s Long Walk and is back to defend his crown.

However, he will return to Ascot with something to prove, having disappointed at Cheltenham and Aintree in the spring, while he is also making his belated seasonal debut after an unsatisfactory scope ruled him out of an intended comeback at Newbury.

“Fingers crossed, he’s in great shape, we’re very happy with him. He schooled very well on Thursday morning and worked well on Tuesday and he’s in a great place,” said O’Brien.

“It’s a very tough race. I was hoping it was just going to be Olly’s horse (to beat), but there’s plenty of others in there, isn’t there?

“Crambo is ready and, touch wood, he usually runs well first time out. He’s fresh and well, he’s done a lot of work and we’re very happy with him, so hopefully he can go and do himself justice.”

Fergal O’Brien with stable star Crambo
Fergal O’Brien with stable star Crambo (Adam Davy/PA)

If there is a silver lining to Crambo’s later than planned return, it could be that there will be more in the tank for the Festivals in the spring than was the case last season.

O’Brien added: “This race last year was his third run of the season. He had a nice run in Aintree, but then he had a hard race at Haydock and we rolled into Ascot, where he won again but had a very hard race – he went to places where he’d never been before.

“That probably left its mark a little bit and I probably should have pulled the plug after Cheltenham instead of going to Aintree, but hindsight’s a wonderful thing.”

Henry de Bromhead’s Hiddenvalley Lake makes his first appearance since finishing third behind Strong Leader at Aintree in April, while fellow Irish challenger Shoot First is an interesting contender, as he steps up in class four weeks on from a lucrative handicap success at Haydock for Charles Byrnes.

Other hopefuls include Dan Skelton’s high-class mare Kateira and the Paul Nicholls-trained Blueking d’Oroux, who finished second in the Ascot Hurdle over a shorter trip last month.