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Stat of the Day, 16th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.10 Chelmsford : Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Mid-division, headway and switched right over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Since the application of blinkers four starts ago, this 3 yr old gelding has enjoyed an upturn in form (and who doesn't want one of those?), finishing 1432 in those races and only beaten by a length over this trip last time when finishing strongly in what looks a stronger contest than today.

That was his first crack at today's trip, but he has already won at this grade over 1m3.5f, so I'd expect another bold effort today.

His jockey today is Rossa Ryan, who comes here in good touch with 9 winners from 46 (19.6% SR) generating 61.8pts (+134.3% ROI) over the last fortnight, including a nice 8/1 winner yesterday (Sunday) at Ffos Las and when riding for today's trainer (Paul Cole) over the last two seasons, Mr Ryan has 7 winners from 29 (24.1% SR) for 36.3pts (+125.2% ROI) profit, including...

  • 6/24 (25%) for 37pts (+154%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 20.8pts (+109.6%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 36pts (+257.1%) at Class 5/6
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 36.8pts (+306.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) over trips of 10 to 12 furlongs
  • 2/4 (50%) for 8.6pts (+215%) at Class 6
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 1.54pts (+77%) over this 1m4f trip

...whilst Rossa + Cole + 3yos + C5/6 hcps @ 8/1 max = 3/4 (75% SR) for 15pts (+375% ROI) with 2 winners from 3 at Class 6.

There's a good chance of our pick going off as favourite today, but whilst it's foolish to blindly back favourites, over 30% of them do win, so it's just a case (as ever) of backing the right ones! With that in mind, you could do a lot worse than backing the ones with Rossa Ryan on their backs, as his record on All-Weather favs stands at 25 from 64 (39.1% SR) and a £10 bet on each would have made you £149.30 profit at an ROI of 23.3%, including...

  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 14.33pts (+43.4%) on 2/3 yr olds
  • 12/28 (42.9%) for 15pts (+53.7%) on Polytrack
  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 5.74pts (+18.5%) at Class 6
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 5.91pts (+26.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 3.16pts (+28.7%) in 3yo contests

...whilst on 2/3 yr olds at Class 6 on Polytrack, he is 3/7 (42.9% SR) 5.19pts (+74.1% ROI).

And finally, back to trainer Paul Cole, whose runners are 10 from 53 (18.9% SR) for 111.6pts (+210.6% ROI) over trips of 9.5 to 12 furlongs during the past 12 months and this include of note/relevance today...

  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 56.7pts (+149.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 35pts (+166.8%) over trips of 1m3f to 1m4f
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) with Rossa Ryan in the saddle
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 31.4pts (+348.7%) at Class 6
  • and 3/12 (25%) for 79.3pts (+661.1%) on the All-Weather...

...and with 3 yr olds winning 4 of 19 (21% SR) for 31.56pts (+166.1% ROI) over trips of 11/12 furlongs...

...I'm happy to place... a 1pt win bet on Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.10pm on Sunday with Stoke City's backers Bet365 offering a little bit more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.10 Chelmsford : Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Mid-division, headway and switched right over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Since the application of blinkers four starts ago, this 3 yr old gelding has enjoyed an upturn in form (and who doesn't want one of those?), finishing 1432 in those races and only beaten by a length over this trip last time when finishing strongly in what looks a stronger contest than today.

That was his first crack at today's trip, but he has already won at this grade over 1m3.5f, so I'd expect another bold effort today.

His jockey today is Rossa Ryan, who comes here in good touch with 9 winners from 46 (19.6% SR) generating 61.8pts (+134.3% ROI) over the last fortnight, including a nice 8/1 winner yesterday (Sunday) at Ffos Las and when riding for today's trainer (Paul Cole) over the last two seasons, Mr Ryan has 7 winners from 29 (24.1% SR) for 36.3pts (+125.2% ROI) profit, including...

  • 6/24 (25%) for 37pts (+154%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 20.8pts (+109.6%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 36pts (+257.1%) at Class 5/6
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 36.8pts (+306.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) over trips of 10 to 12 furlongs
  • 2/4 (50%) for 8.6pts (+215%) at Class 6
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 1.54pts (+77%) over this 1m4f trip

...whilst Rossa + Cole + 3yos + C5/6 hcps @ 8/1 max = 3/4 (75% SR) for 15pts (+375% ROI) with 2 winners from 3 at Class 6.

There's a good chance of our pick going off as favourite today, but whilst it's foolish to blindly back favourites, over 30% of them do win, so it's just a case (as ever) of backing the right ones! With that in mind, you could do a lot worse than backing the ones with Rossa Ryan on their backs, as his record on All-Weather favs stands at 25 from 64 (39.1% SR) and a £10 bet on each would have made you £149.30 profit at an ROI of 23.3%, including...

  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 14.33pts (+43.4%) on 2/3 yr olds
  • 12/28 (42.9%) for 15pts (+53.7%) on Polytrack
  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 5.74pts (+18.5%) at Class 6
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 5.91pts (+26.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 3.16pts (+28.7%) in 3yo contests

...whilst on 2/3 yr olds at Class 6 on Polytrack, he is 3/7 (42.9% SR) 5.19pts (+74.1% ROI).

And finally, back to trainer Paul Cole, whose runners are 10 from 53 (18.9% SR) for 111.6pts (+210.6% ROI) over trips of 9.5 to 12 furlongs during the past 12 months and this include of note/relevance today...

  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 56.7pts (+149.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 35pts (+166.8%) over trips of 1m3f to 1m4f
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) with Rossa Ryan in the saddle
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 31.4pts (+348.7%) at Class 6
  • and 3/12 (25%) for 79.3pts (+661.1%) on the All-Weather...

...and with 3 yr olds winning 4 of 19 (21% SR) for 31.56pts (+166.1% ROI) over trips of 11/12 furlongs...

...I'm happy to place... a 1pt win bet on Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.10pm on Sunday with Stoke City's backers Bet365 offering a little bit more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th August 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.10 Lingfield : Visionara @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Pressed leader, led 2f out, ridden over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, driven out to win by a length and three quarters)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlemaine @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Nursery for 2yo over 5f on Good To Soft ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 2 yr old colt has won two (his first & his last) of his four starts to date, with his two defeats coming in far better (C2 & listed) big-field contests. He did, however win LTO when making his handicap/nursery debut at Sandown 16 days ago, when he also wore the blinkers for the first time in public.

His trainer Paul Cole has got his horses going well enough without ripping up any trees, but 2 winners and 2 placers from 7 over the last week is a decent enough return and whilst he doesn't send many here to Newbury, once again he does well enough without reaching superstar status.

In fact over the last four seasons, Paul has only had 38 runners at this track, but 6 winners (15.8% SR) and 49.5pts (+130.2% ROI) is a good return for both him and his followers. Of those 38 runners and of relevance today...

  • 4/21 (19.1%) for 35.8pts (+170.6%) at Class 4
  • 4/16 (25%) for 25.8pts (+161.1%) at 12/1 and shorter
  • 4/10 (40%) for 50.8pts (+508%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 3/15 (20%) for 37pts (+246.9%) with 2 yr olds
  • 2/8 (25%) for 22.7pts (+283.3%) on Good to Soft
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 18.9pts (+630%) with David Probert in the saddle

...and a composite from the above? OK, 2/3 yr olds  + Classes 3-5 + 16/1 max SP = 5/10 (50% SR) for 55.58pts (+555.8% ROI) including 2 yr olds at 2/3 (66.6%) for 27.15pts (+905%).

Meanwhile, during that same last four seasons time frame, Paul Cole's LTO winners are 12 from 55 (21.8% SR) for 36.1pts (+65.6% ROI) when sent off at 2/1 or bigger in handicaps, including of note today...

  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 35.5pts (+77.2%) from male runners
  • 10/37 (27%) for 46.7pts (+126.3%) at trips of 5-8 furlongs
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 38.6pts (+183.9%) from August to November
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 28pts (+127.3%) at Class 4
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 15.05pts (+125.4%) in fields of 7-8 runners
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 11.35pts (+567.5%) with 2 yr olds

...from which, you could consider males at 5-8 furlongs during August to November for 6 from 12 (50% SR) and 34.3pts (+285.5% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Charlemaine @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.00 Nottingham : Music Seeker @ 6/1 8th at 3/1 (Chased leaders on inside, ridden 2f out, weakened soon after, behind and eased final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Duke of Hazzard @ 9/2 BOG

...in the 9-runner, Group 3, Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes for 3yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56,710 to the winner... 

Why?...

Keeping it fairly simple today with a 3 yr old colt who broke his UK duck on this very track last season and was also a winner of a Listed race at Deauville as a 2 yr old, beating one of today's main rivals in the process. He won a Listed race LTO 22 days ago, which took his UK record to 2 wins and 3 places from 9 starts, suggesting that at the very least, we should get a run for our money (albeit late in the piece!)

From those nine previous UK runs, he has...

  • 2 wins, 3 places from 5 after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 in July/August
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 1 win from 3 over a mile
  • 1 from 1 here at Goodwood
  • 1 from 1 under jockey PJ McDonald
  • 1 from 1 in August
  • and 1 from 1 going right handed

Trainer Paul Cole is neither prolific, nor does he comes to Goodwood that often, but over the last three seasons his runners over 1m1f and shorter have won 27% more often than expected via 4 wins from 16 (25% SR) that have generated 2.53pts profit at an ROI of 10.12%. These numbers aren't earth shattering, admittedly, but that A/E figure of 1.27 is certainly interesting, especially given the horse's own obvious claims.

That said, of that 4 from 16 record, there are...

  • 3/10 (30%) from those with a top 2 finish LTO
  • 3/7 (42.9%) racing after a break of 21-30 days
  • 2/9 (22.2%) in non-handicaps
  • 2/9 (22.2%) in August
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) shorter than 4/1 (which is where I expect him to end up)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Duke of Hazzard @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th June 2019

Monday's pick was...

8.40 Windsor : Oydis @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/4 (Soon prominent, led 8f out, headed over 6f out, stayed prominent, strong challenge final furlong, led towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.50 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oliver Hardy @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6 Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old colt was successful last time out, 15 days ago, here at Brighton over 1m2f under today's jockey Rossa Ryan in a win that took the rider's record in handicaps at this venue to 8 from 29 (27.6% SR) for 25.8pts (+89%) since the start of last season and those include...

  • 5 wins from 8 (62.5%) for 30.5pts (+381.7%) since losing his claim
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 23.5pts (+156.9%) on male runners
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 22.4pts (+117.6%) at Class 6
  • 4/8 (50%) for 16.8pts (+210%) in June
  • and 4/10 (40%) for 14.77pts (+147.7%) on 3 yr olds

And whilst those 29 rides only include one for trainer Paul Cole (Oliver Hardy's LTO win, of course), Rossa is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 36.53pts (+405.9% ROI) on Paul's handicappers since the start of 2018.

Meanwhile Paul Cole himself is no slouch at this track, with decent returns for a long number of years now, but we'll stick to more relevant/recent results to analyse, as his runners sent off here at 8/1 or shorter are 11 from 29 (37.9% SR) for 24.3pts (+83.8% ROI) over the last 5 (inc. this one) seasons, from which...

  • males are 10/25 (40%) for 22.7pts (+90.8%)
  • 2-4 yr olds are 9/21 (42.9%) for 24.1pts (+114.7%)
  • those competing for less than £4,000 are 7/18 (38.9%) for 19.7pts (+109.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 2/4 950%) for 9pts (+225%)
  • and in June : 2/5 (40%) for 6.94pts (+138.7%)

...whilst 2-4 yr old males competing for less than £4k are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 18.4pts (+167.6% ROI) including, of course, Oliver Hardy's win last time out...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oliver Hardy @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG as offered by Bet365 and SkyBet respectively at 6.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday Musings: Never Say No Nay Never

I happened to call Wesley Ward on Friday, writes Tony Stafford. The California-based Royal Ascot juvenile specialist trainer was typically bullish about having a half-sister of his brilliant Queen Mary/ King’s Stand speedball Lady Aurelia ready to make the trip to the meeting in June.

Indeed, after Lady Pauline’s near 10-length debut Keeneland win on dirt a week before our chat, he is even considering aiming the Munnings filly at the newly-branded Trials Day at Ascot on May 1. A £9,000 winner’s prize for the five-furlong conditions race might not be much of a financial draw but the chance to give this precocious filly a sight of the track is something he is trying to sell to connections.

Wesley was also understandably bullish about No Nay Never, his easy 2013 Norfolk Stakes winner at the meeting. Few horses better illustrate the topsy-turvy world of international bloodstock than No Nay Never, originally sold as a foal at Keeneland for $170,000 on 11/11/11 (any significance there?) but picked up at the same venue the following September for only $95,000.

Since then it’s been a case of an upward course all the way. Ward raced him only six times in all, going unbeaten at two at Keeneland, Ascot and in the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville. He stayed in the US at three, winning a Grade 3 at Keeneland in between second places at Gulfstream Park (Grade 2) and in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) when Frankie Dettori joined forces with the trainer.

Dettori, associated with around half of Lady Aurelia’s career, John Velazquez stepping in when the Italian had to miss Ascot in 2017, will be hoping to jump up on Lady Pauline. Lady Aurelia had a similar winning juvenile start as No Nay Never, at Keeneland, Royal Ascot (Queen Mary, by seven lengths!) and the Morny.

No Nay Never’s first-season exploits as a Coolmore stallion were so exceptional that his stud fee for 2019 has been quadrupled to €100,000, from €25,000 last year, and Wesley, who has an interest in the stallion, is understandably delighted that the colt he put on the path to the top has done so well.

There was a non-Coolmore No Nay Never colt on view in the Naas opener on Saturday and it would not have upset Ireland’s premier stud that Ming Warrior, a €75,000 yearling, bred incidentally by Anne-Marie O’Brien and trained by the talented Michael O’Callaghan, could fare no better than second.

Your first 30 days for just £1

The winner, ridden by Ryan Moore, was the Aidan-trained and Coolmore (plus Peter Brant)-owned Monarch Of Egypt, the first son of US Triple Crown winner American Pharoah to make the track. The winning margin for the odds-on chance was close to three lengths.

The name of the game is producing stallions so the fact that American Pharoah was off the bat straight away will have been a source of much joy. Equally the Lads would not have minded that when Highland Chief, Gleneagles’ initial runner, also won on debut at Newbury the previous day, it was in Mrs Fitri Hay’s colours, especially as the Hays are well-established associates of the team.

Highland Chief’s SP of 16-1, despite his being in the care of Paul Cole, one of the all-time skilled handlers of juveniles was a big surprise. I realise it’s a long time ago, but when Cole gets a good horse he exploits its talents to the full. I well remember when he won three major two-year-old races at the 1991 Royal meeting all for the late Prince Fahd Salman. Magic Ring won the Norfolk, Dilum the Coventry and Fair Cop the Chesham. The last-named obviously has no connection with the filly of the same name that runs this afternoon at Windsor for Andrew Balding. She could well win.

Another more than shrewd participant in various areas of the industry is the veteran jockey John Egan, now 50 but well-established as a pin-hooker par excellence as well as father of the brilliant young rider David Egan.

Egan Sr. has been honing the talents of his US-bred pin-hooks, colts by American Pharoah and War Front (this one out of Coolmore notable, Quarter Moon) in preparation for this week’s Tattersalls Craven Breeze-Up and his investments of respectively $350,000 and $400,000 could well be lavishly repaid, with many of the big hitters expected to be around.

He was justifiably thrilled that Monarch Of Egypt has already made it to the track, emphasising a potential precocity in the breed, a remark that goes too for the progeny of Gleneagles when they turn up at Breeze-Up sales this spring and early summer.

*

There was a nice result in the Coral Scottish National on Saturday when the Nicky Richards-trained Takingrisks won the £122,000 first prize under Sean Quinlan by four lengths from Crosspark. Before the race Richards had pointed out that his 10-year-old had form on good ground – even though his preceding win at Carlisle had been on heavy! – and that he would get the four-mile trip.

With five non-runners from the original 28-horse acceptance because of the fast surface, it was something of a surprise that Takingrisks started at as big a price as he did, and for the last mile of the marathon he was always going like the probable winner.

Richards afterwards spoke emotionally about the fact that there are trainers in the north of England perfectly capable of competing with their relatively better-off southern counterparts and with some pride that Takingrisks’ owner, Frank Bird, is based down the road from Richards’ Greystoke stables in Cumbria.

I do a daily early-morning job (needs must!) compiling the thoughts of around a dozen trainers on a web site and Nicky is one of them. Apart from being unbelievably frank and accurate about his horses, he can come up with the funniest remarks. I could not have been happier when Takingrisks won, although I must admit to having a small each-way bet while at Newbury on seventh-placed 40-1 shot Red Infantry. Hill’s paid each-way first six. Plus ca change! (sorry no cedilla!)

To give an illustration of Richards’ frankness, I recall his comments about Glinger Flame before that horse’s recent handicap debut at Hexham. The horse had been beaten a couple of times when “expected” for decent novices while appearing not to go through fully with his effort. Nicky said “I never like to call a horse ungenuine…” leaving little doubt that he feared internally he might be.

Different tactics were employed, along with first-time cheek-pieces, in an attempt to find the key and Glinger Flame won by 18 lengths. Wisely Nicky is not letting him back into another handicap, for which he would be 16lb higher after that romp, but instead allows him to carry a penalty in the opener there today. Wise indeed. No wonder he’s long odds-on despite the 13-runner field.

- Tony Stafford

Stat of the Day, 5th July 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

4.40 Worcester : Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Chased leaders, closed after 4 out, 2nd before next, led flat, driven out for a relatively comfortable win by 2.5 lengths)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Baron Bolt @ 11/4 BOG

In a 5-runner, Class 3 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £8715 to the winner... 

Why?

It's fair to say that this 5 yr old gelding was disappointing last time when when well beaten at Newmarket. it's quite possible that a third run inside five weeks was a step too far after nearly 7 months off the track, so I'm prepared to overlook that run, especially as he's finished as a runner-up in his previous four contests, all at a better standard than today's race.

He's now had nearly four weeks to recuperate from his latest effort and I'd expect a return to past form, especially as in Flat handicaps he has...

  • 3 wins from 10 (30%) for 0.23pts (+2.3%) plus four placed finishes in cheekpieces
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.03pts (+179%) at odds of 2/1 to 4/1
  • 4/7 (57.1) for 7.03pts (+100.4%) in fields of 8 runners or less, plus 2 places.
  • 3 from 3 (100%) for 7.23pts (+241%) in July/August
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.82pts (+94%) going left handed.

Today's jockey, David Probert, is red hot right now having won 7 of 19 rides (36.8% SR) over the past 5 days, whilst here at Epsom, he has an overall strike rate of 17% over 10 seasons (22/129).

And finally, to the trainer Paul Cole. Admittedly quiet so far this season, but the record books show that July-September are his better months for winning Flat handicaps, whilst since the start of the 2015 season, his 6/7 furlong runners are 26/162 (16.1% SR) for 168pts (+103.7% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 17/92 (18.5%) for 60.6pts (+65.9%)
  • within 30 days of their last run : 14/90 (15.6%) for 81.6pts (+90.7%)
  • in July : 9/32 (28.1%) for 102.3pts (+319.8%)
  • ridden by David Probert : 3/8 (37.5%) for 24.4pts (+305%)
  • and here at Epsom @ 2/4 950%) for 19.3pts (+481.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Baron Bolt @ 11/4 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Wednesday evening, whilst Bet365 ( (the first to break cover) were going at 7/2 BOG for those able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

4.35 Bath : Airshow @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 9/2 (Tracked leader, ridden and weakened inside final furlong)

We now continue with Tuesday's...

3.35 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 4,  1m Flat Handicap (3yo+) on good ground worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, what we have here is an in-form 4 yr old gelding who has won each of his last three starts and whose career stats include...

  • 3 from 11 at 7/8 furlongs
  • 3 from 3 in blinkers
  • 2 from 2 since moving to Paul Cole's yard (more on Paul in a moment!)
  • 1 from 1 at Class 4
  • 1 from 1 under jockey Raul da Silva

And now to trainer Paul Cole...

Over the last 21 months, his LTO winners have gone on to follow up 11 times from 37 (29.7% SR) generating 29.1pts (+78.8% ROI) profit along the way, which are good numbers and in the context of today's race, those 37 are..

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 24.6pts (+76.8%) as males
  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 35.1pts (+113.4%) at the ages of 2 to 4
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 33.2pts (+107.2%) over trips of 5 to 9 furlongs
  • 11/30 (36.7%) for 36.1pts (+120.5%) in handicaps
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 23.6pts (+112.4%) at 21-60 days after their last run/win
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 33pts (+194.2%) at Class 4
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 19.6pts (+244.6%) at the age of 4
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 14.15pts (+283%) with Raul da Silva in the saddle

AND...from the above  : 2-4 yr old male handicappers over 5 to 9 furlongs = 9/18 (50% SR) for 36.67pts (+203.7% ROI), including 3 from 5 (60%) for 21.43pts (+428.5%) over the last 6 months and Raul has ridden 3 of those 5, winning twice (66.6%) and making 6.6pts (+220%) profit, including a win on today's pick!

More generally, since the start of 2015, Mr Cole's runners are 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 33.5pts (+128.7% ROI) profit here at Brighton with the following subsets of relevance today...

  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 23.5pts (+123.4%) in handicaps
  • 8/16 (50%) for 14.9pts (+92.9%) at ISP odds shorter than 5/1
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 21.42pts (+142.8%) during April/May
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 6.64pts (+73.8%) at Class 4
  • 4/8 (50%) for 7.64pts (+95.5%) with 4 yr olds
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 18.66pts (+311%) on good ground

...all pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available from 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.35pm on Monday, although the best price was 7/2 BOG from bet365 for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th October 2017

Friday's Result :

4.00 Newbury : Executive Force @ 13/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 : Towards rear when shuffled back to rear over 5f out, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, couldn't reach leaders...

Saturday's selection goes in the...

7.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

May Remain @ 13/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 2yo nursery contest over 5f on tapeta...

...and a 2 yr old colt who was in fine form (finishing 21221 at Class 4/5) before biting off more than he could chew last time out. That said, to finish 5th of 13 in a Group 3 contest at Goodwood is far from a disgrace and you'd expect that challenge to stand him in good stead as he drops back to Class 4 action today.

He now returns dropping in grade after almost 3 months rest to make a much awaited handicap debut for Paul Cole, who over the last 2 yrs has had 39 winners from 261 handicappers with that 14.9% strike rate yielding 38.5pts profit at an ROI of 14.7% and these figures include...

  • over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs : 25/112 (22.3%) for 91pts (+81.2%)
  • in October/November : 9/43 (20.9%) for 30.9pts (+71.9%)
  • on handicap debut : 7/28 (25%) for 46.3pts (+165.3%)
  • 2 yr olds are 7/17 (41.2%) for 29pts (+170.6%)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 3/13 (23.1%) for 12.9pts (+99.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on May Remain @ 13/2 BOG, which was available from Bet365, Betfred &Totesport at 6.30pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.35 Sandown : Hold Sway @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Tracked leader, ridden to lead over 2f out, soon headed, kept on but lost 2nd inside final furlong.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

8.50 Goodwood...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zambesi Queen11/4 BOG

Why?

A very comfortable winner by some 5 lengths over this 6f trip when last seen five weeks ago. She was ridden by today's jockey, David Probert that day as she scored on her handicap debut despite being off the track for 5 months, so she could well have more to give.

Trainer Paul Cole's handicappers with less than 4 handicap runs under their belts are 16/95 (16.8% SR) for 41.8pts (+44% ROI) over the last two years, which is very impressive indeed and under today's conditions, they are...

  • 12/67 (17.9%) for 32.25pts (+48.1%), 6 to 60 days since their last run
  • 11/58 (19%) for 23.1pts (+39.8%) on Turf
  • 3 yr olds are 10/57 (17.5%) for 42.9pts (+75.2%)
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 41.7pts (+130.5%) at Class 5
  • females are 4/22 (18.2%) for 29.7pts (+135%)
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 51.5pts (+343.2%) over 6f
  • those with 1 previous hcp win are 4/13 (30.8%) for 20pts (+153.9%)
  • and those ridden by David Probert  are 3/5 (60%) for 30.95pts (+618.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Zambesi Queen11/4 BOG which was offered by both Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.50 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, Monday 16th May

Saturday's Result :

4.10 Newmarket: Venturous @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 2/1 (Led 1f, tracked leaders, ridden to lead over 1f out, soon headed, faded inside final furlong).

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.45 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Brave Archibald at 10/1 e/w BOG.

Why?

This one might seem like a bit of a longshot and I admit it's longer than I'd normally put up for SotD, but there's every chance he's overpriced and I've hedged the bet in expectation of at least a place, as he has achieved in five of his last six runs, finishing 128213, showing some consistency and the latest effort was a defeat of less than two lengths nine days ago.

That run came off the back of a 191 day absence, so he could be ewcused for needing a run or feeling rusty and in fact he finished the race far better than he started it, staying on well from off the pace to make the frame, suggesting the step up in trip today might work to his advantage.

He's trained by Paul Cole whose runners are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 12.18pts (+53% ROI) here at Brighton over the last three years, from which Luke Morris has ridden three winners from 9 here on a track where he has also excelled in recent times.

In fact, since the start of the 2013 season, Luke's record on handicappers priced at 2/1 to 12/1 here reads as 15 winners from 65 (23.1% SR) for profits of 31.6pts (+48.7% ROI) with male runners winning 12 of 47 (25.5% SR) for 28.9pts (+61.6% ROI) and those racing over this 10f trip are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 14.2pts (+203.1% ROI), leading to a record of 3 from 4 on males at this trip for profits of 10.5pts.

Further confidence comes from the horse's consistency, as in UK flat races since 2012, 3 to 5 yr olds with a top 3 finish in each of their last three races, but were losers LTO 6 to 30 days ago, returned to winning ways on 310 of 1457 (21.3% SR) occasions with the resultant 334.2pts profit equating to 22.9% of stakes invested.

Of those 1457 runners, 3 yr olds are 227/1055 (21.5% SR) for 273pts (+25.9% ROI) and they have won 131 of 683 (19.2% SR) 3 yo only races for profits of 229pts (+33.5% ROI) with a 5 from 14 record here at Brighton.

And that's why the call is...a 0.5pt E/W bet on Brave Archibald at 10/1 BOG with Betbright, who were the standout price at 7.00pm and to see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 16th May 2016

Saturday's Result :

4.10 Newmarket: Venturous @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 2/1 (Led 1f, tracked leaders, ridden to lead over 1f out, soon headed, faded inside final furlong).

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.45 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Brave Archibald at 10/1 e/w BOG.

Why?

This one might seem like a bit of a longshot and I admit it's longer than I'd normally put up for SotD, but there's every chance he's overpriced and I've hedged the bet in expectation of at least a place, as he has achieved in five of his last six runs, finishing 128213, showing some consistency and the latest effort was a defeat of less than two lengths nine days ago.

That run came off the back of a 191 day absence, so he could be ewcused for needing a run or feeling rusty and in fact he finished the race far better than he started it, staying on well from off the pace to make the frame, suggesting the step up in trip today might work to his advantage.

He's trained by Paul Cole whose runners are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 12.18pts (+53% ROI) here at Brighton over the last three years, from which Luke Morris has ridden three winners from 9 here on a track where he has also excelled in recent times.

In fact, since the start of the 2013 season, Luke's record on handicappers priced at 2/1 to 12/1 here reads as 15 winners from 65 (23.1% SR) for profits of 31.6pts (+48.7% ROI) with male runners winning 12 of 47 (25.5% SR) for 28.9pts (+61.6% ROI) and those racing over this 10f trip are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 14.2pts (+203.1% ROI), leading to a record of 3 from 4 on males at this trip for profits of 10.5pts.

Further confidence comes from the horse's consistency, as in UK flat races since 2012, 3 to 5 yr olds with a top 3 finish in each of their last three races, but were losers LTO 6 to 30 days ago, returned to winning ways on 310 of 1457 (21.3% SR) occasions with the resultant 334.2pts profit equating to 22.9% of stakes invested.

Of those 1457 runners, 3 yr olds are 227/1055 (21.5% SR) for 273pts (+25.9% ROI) and they have won 131 of 683 (19.2% SR) 3 yo only races for profits of 229pts (+33.5% ROI) with a 5 from 14 record here at Brighton.

And that's why the call is...a 0.5pt E/W bet on Brave Archibald at 10/1 BOG with Betbright, who were the standout price at 7.00pm and to see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Trainer Stats: 23rd July 2013

907-saeed-bin-suroorAndy Newton’s got six flat trainers that have their horses in tip-top form to look for this week……. Read more

Trainer Stats: 9th Aug 2012

Mark Johnston Has His String In Fine Form

Andy Newton continues this week with 8 flat trainers to look out for..... Read more

Sat TV Trends: 5th May 2012

Aidan Just 3 from 36 With His 3-year-olds at HQ

Did you know that Aidan O’Brien is currently just 2 from 36 with his 3 year-olds at Newmarket? Read more