Posts

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2020

Friday's pick was...

1.40 Fontwell : Compadre @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 5/1 (Always towards rear, never on terms) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this shortly, of course...

Here we have a 4 yr old gelding with 2 wins and a place from four runs since racing resumed in June all at Class 6 and under today's jockey Kevin Stott. The first of those runs/wins was his only previous visit to Redcar, so he has an unbeaten record to protect here.

The racecard shows plenty of green icons denoting both trainer and jockey have been in decent form of late and both have good records at this venue, whilst my report show that that pair have fared well together over the last year.

And I want to expand slightly upon the trainer/jockey record this morning before wrapping today's piece up, because since the start of 2018 the Midgley/Stott combo is 15 from 53 (28.3% SR) for 28.75pts (+54.2% ROI) in Flat handicaps at odds of 8/1 and shorter, including of note today...

  • 11/37 (29.7%) for 27.8pts (+75.1%) with horses rested for less than three weeks
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 26pts (+108.3%) with horses placed LTO
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 7.35pts (+35%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 6/15 (40%) for 7.6pts (+50.6%) at Class 6
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 5.64pts (+56.4%) in August...

...whilst in races worth less than £8k with horses placed LTO less than three weeks earlier, the pair are 6 from 16 (37.5% SR) for 12.84pts (+80.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG or bigger as was available at 8.30am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2020

Monday's pick was...

2.20 Catterick : Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/1 (Led, stayed towards inside with one other in in home straight, ridden and pressed over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, weakened inside final furlong) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Saluti @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, we can take quite a bit of inspiration from the racecard...

Fifth last time out doesn't tell the whole story, drawn on the wrong side of 17 stalls in a Class 2 contest over 6f at Goodwood, he was only beaten by 2.5 lengths and beat all bar one of the nine drawn higher than stall 8 (the 3/1 fav beat him by a short head).

Prior to that, this 6 yr old gelding won a Class 3 handicap over 5f at not too distant Pontefract, so I'd expect the drop to Class 4 to suit him well here.

As you can see above, the trainer does well enough here at Beverley and the trainer/jockey combo has been amongst the winners of late, albeit from a small number of runners.

A quick, deeper look at trainer Paul Midgley's record here at Beverley shows that since the start of 2017, his handicappers sent off at 6/1 or shorter here are 8 from 24 (33.3% SR) for 14.1pts (+58.7% ROI), all incidentally over this 5f track and trip and including...

  • 8/20 (40%) for 18.1pts (+90.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 25.1pts (+193%) in fields of 4-10 runners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 10.65pts (+152.2%) in August
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 2.64pts (+52.8%) with jockey Graham Lee...

...whilst in 4-10 runner contests in August within 25 days of their last run, they are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 13.65pts (+341.3% ROI), including 2/2 for 5.64pts (+282%) for today's jockey...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Saluti @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.10am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!