Tag Archive for: Perth racecourse

Racing Insights, Saturday 17/08/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.45 Curragh
  • 2.45 Ripon
  • 3.20 Ripon
  • 5.40 Bath
  • 5.45 Curragh
  • 6.20 Market Rasen

Both the TJC report and the free list have a Class 2 handicap, but 18-runner sprints aren't my bag and I've not covered an NH race for some while, so let's head to Scotland for the 6.35 Perth, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over what will be near enough 2m½f after a 57 yard rail adjustment. They'll go right-handed and tackle eight flights of hurdles in a bid to land the £13k first prize...

Enthused, Castel Gandolfo and Kinbara Firstdraft all won their last hurdle races, whilst King's Castle has won four on the bounce and the entire field have all won at least one of their last seven efforts.

Only Castel Gandolfo raced at Class 2 last time out, landing a 17-runner handicap at Market Rasen but Cuban Cigar and Here Comes Georgie both step up one level from Class 3, whilst the remainder of the field all raced at Class 4 last time out.

Today will be just the second time in a handicap for Kinbara Firstdraft, Here Comes Georgie and Annie Agnew with the first of that trio one of four (Cirque Royal, Scots Poet and Well Planted being the others) past course and distance winners, although the entire field have all won at least once over a similar trip to this one, but it's Enthused who stands out on Instant Expert's 2-year form overview...

King's Castle should love the good ground here, but Castel Gandolfo and Well Planted have several defeats on this going and in general! They have both also struggled over the trip, as has Cuban Cigar, whilst Well Planted also has a poor record at this venue and I think I've probably now written enough about him from a win perspective, although when you see his place form, you'd think I was talking about a different horse!

...and in a race where the bookies will pay four (some go five) places, it might be foolish to discount him and also Cuban Cigar entirely as E/W possibles. so, based purely, on the above graphic, the ones who appeal to me from an E/W or placed finish perspective are...

We have no draw stats to contend with here, of course, so let's see what kind of tactics might best be employed to win or make the frame here...

Past similar races have suggested that leaders an prominent runners are best suited to this contest, so in an ideal world, a fair few of the seven runners above will have regularly raced in more advanced positions. We can quickly check their last four (or all three in Annie Agnew's case) outings and they look like this...

...and from this, I think I'm going to set Well Planted and Cuban Cigar aside, although Sod's Law will now dictate that they both run excellent races here. Oslo is also borderline on pace and I think I best be best off concentrating on the quartet who'll chase and hopefully catch Chaos Control.

Summary

So, I've ended up with (in racecard order) Enthused, King's Castle, Kinbara Firstdraft and Annie Agnew and I'd be more than happy to place a small E/W wager on any/all of the four if I can get 8/1 or bigger about them. From a win perspective, it's Instant Expert standout Enthused and the form horse King's Castle who interest me the most and I'd probably take the former to edge out the latter here, but I'd no odds to quote at the time I published my piece.

Have a great weekend and I'll be back on Sunday for a preview for Monday's racing.

Chris

Racing Insights, Saturday 19/08/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a stack of qualifiers for me to consider...

14-day form...

30-day form...

1-year form...

Course 5-year form...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.10 Newmarket
  • 4.00 Curragh
  • 4.05 Newbury
  • 4.35 Curragh
  • 4.55 Newmarket
  • 5.50 Tramore

The Owen/Cobden partnership has been flying over the last year and their sole runner on Saturday is up against one of the McCain/Hughes runners and that partnership has been excellent on that track for many a year now, so let's see how Too Friendly and Finisk River might get on in the 3.20 Perth, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed two miles on good ground...

Top-weight Too Friendly, handicap debutant Liverpool Knight and course and distance winner Well Planted all come here off the back of LTO successes in the last four weeks. Too Friendly has two wins and a second from his last three, Liverpool Knight is on a hat-trick and only Earth Company (who hasn't completed 3 of his last 4) & Dexter are winless in seven.

Despite being winless in seven, Earth Company is up one class here on his debut for Patrick Neville, as are Finisk River and Well Planted, whilst the hat-trick seeking, handicap debutant Liverpool Knight is up two steps.

The bottom two on the card, Earth Company and Dexter are both tongue-tied for the first time and both makes debuts in new headgear : a hood and cheekpieces respectively, whilst both are ridden by claimers. Earth Company might also need a run after a 103-day absence, as all his rivals have raced in the past four weeks.

At this point, there's little going on in Earth Company's favour and I'm already sure I won't be backing him, even if Instant Expert says he has won at this trip and has scored on good ground...

There's not huge chunks of data to consider here, but it does highlight the inadequate results for Castel Gandolfo on good ground and at Class 2, whilst it does also say that Too Friendly's better form has come on different going (good to soft). Normally we'd then look at place stats, but they just seem to muddy the water...

...as based on that, virtually all of them have enough to make the frame, whilst from a pace perspective their chances of doing so are greatly increased by racing prominently or even leading...

...and the same can be said to a slightly lesser extent about the winners of those races. which is advantage Too Friendly, based on the fields recent performances...

Summary

Nice and quick today and a fairly easy decision for me to suggest Too Friendly as the one to beat.

The trainer/jockey combo have 6 wins and 3 runner-ups together from 11 races over the last year, the horse is in great (121) form and gets the trip readily. He's got the best pace profile of the seven runners and the only blot is his weaker record on good ground than he has on slightly softer, but that's probably why he's the 5/2 second favourite in the early market (4pm and only Hills open) rather than heading the field.

Liverpool Knight has that 'honour' at 9/4 and whlst he's in great form too, he's up two classes here and this will far tougher than the stroll around he had last time out. That said, he's sure to be there or thereabouts.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 28/04/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded no qualifiers at all so it's a good job that this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Perth
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 4.00 Doncaster
  • 5.20 Chepstow
  • 5.30 Perth
  • 7.45 Punchestown

...from which I have chosen the first on the list, the Highland National. It's the 2.05 Perth, a 13-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase featuring 23 fences spread over 3m6½f on good to soft ground and here's how they line up...

As you can see, top-weight Court Master was due to run for the first time in ten months (during which he'd had a wind op) since being pulled up in a Listed race at Uttoxeter, but has been withdrawn from this contest, leaving us the baker's dozen competitors. He'll probably run in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday and this means that the entire field for this Perth race have all ran in the last twelve weeks with new top-weight Innisfree Lad seen as recently as nine days ago.

Silver In Disguise is our sole LTO winner, having scored over 3m½f at Wetherby earlier this month, but a few of his rivals have also won recently. Nearly Perfect is 3 from 7, Geryville is a regular placer, Fairlawn Flyer seems to win or be pulled up with four wins and 2 x P in his last six, whilst Concetto is 2 from 3, Destiny Is All is 3 from 7 and Return Fire is 2 from 6 as all of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings!

Planned Paradise, If Not For Dylan and Return Fire both now drop down from Class 2, but Fairlawn Flyer, Just Don't Know, Silver In Disguise (also up 5lbs) and Gentleman De Mai all step up a level from Class 4. Top-weight Innisfree Lad is the oldest here at 11, some 4yrs older and carrying 18lbs more than bottom-weight and joint youngest at 7, Return Fire.

None of this field have won over this trip, but Silver In Disguise won over 3m7f at Chepstow thirteen months ago. Other than that, Destiny In All's win over 3m3f at Ayr a year ago is the longest win of this field so far, although Fairlawn Flyer and If Not For Dylan have both won here at Perth before, albeit over at 3m½f hurdle and a 3m chase respectively.

The card tells us that couple of these are in first-time headgear, as Geryville is tongue-tied and Gentleman De Mai is visored, whilst Instant Expert says we have seven good to soft chase winners on display and half a dozen Class 3 chase winners, whilst Innisfree Lad is the only one to have scored at Class 2...

Innisfree Lad's record in this grade (1/13) is a worry, as is his 0 from 5 at 3m6f and beyond, but he is down to a reasonable mark, just a pound higher than his last win. Nearly Perfect has done well at Class 3 and  is 5lbs below his last win but all his best form is on soft ground. Geryville has won at both going and class but might be a little high in the weights.

Silver In Disguise poses a dilemma, as he stays the trip, but has a poor record at this level, as does If Not For Dylan. As can often be the case, the ones to consider might well be those without much relevant experience as there is a school of thought that backing horses trying something new is better than backing those that have failed repeatedly under set conditions. It's a thought, if nothing else! Perhaps, the place stats will open a door or two?

Here, you would expect to see plenty of green and regular placer Geryville catches the eye. He'll like the ground and has done well at this grade; Silver In Disguise and If Not For Dylan have struggled at Class 3, though. Destiny Is All has perfect percentage figures, as do Concetto and Gentleman de Mai off admittedly fewer runs.

And if we were to focus purely on green and amber stat percentages from the place form...

...then the five (because some bookies will pay five places here) that would interest me most from that would be (in card order) Innisfree Lad, Geryville, Concetto, If Not For Dylan and Destiny Is All. That said, getting this trip here over so many fences on good to soft ground isn't easy and sadly, we don't have enough relevant pace data to help us out, as there aren't many similar races to fall back on as shown here...

Summary

In such a competitive looking race with many runners in decent nick and a lack of relevant pace data, I'm going to fall back onto the place stats from earlier and stick with my five-runner shortlist of Innisfree Lad, Geryville, Concetto, If Not For Dylan and Destiny Is All. I feel that all of them stand a great chance of making the frame and I'll be checking the market to see of any are worth an E/W punt.

As for the winner, I think it's likely to be between Destiny Is All and Concetto and I really wouldn't like to try and split them if I'm honest and I'm not really surprised that they're at the top end of the market. My shortlist are currently (6.05pm) best priced at Innisfree Lad (14/1 4 places & 12/1 5 places), Geryville (8/1 both),  Concetto (13/2 & 11/2), If Not For Dylan (20/1 & 16/1) and Destiny Is All (13/2 & 6/1).

Destiny Is All and Concetto are a little short for my liking as E/W bets, but i wouldn't try to deter you from backing any or all of the other three.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/04/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 3.00 Perth
  • 4.05 Perth
  • 4.53 Ludlow
  • 5.20 Punchestown
  • 6.45 Lingfield

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated the following...

...but as Sod's Law often prevails, none of my TS qualifiers are in a 'free' race so I'm going to see if Messrs McCain and Hughes stand any chance of getting Dreams of Home to repeat last year's win in the 2.30 Perth, a competitive-looking, 5-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (12 fences) over a right-handed two miles on good to soft ground...

Sword of Fate was the only one of these to win last time out and he's the only one stepping up in class. Corrigeen Rock drops in class after failing to make the frame for the first time in five starts, whilst Ashington has been placed on each of his last two outings.

All five have won over today's trip and both top and bottom weight have won over course and distance; Dreams of Home landed this race last year off 2lbs higher than today and Sword of Fate (carrying 24lbs less than top-weight) scored over track/trip way back in September 2021!

Dream of Home wears a tongue tie for the first time and probable outsider Casa Tall wears first-time cheekpieces in attempt to regain past form after a poor run of form, failing to make the frame in any of his last nine, failing to complete three of them. All bar Ashington have raced in the last three to five weeks, but he has had three months rest since a hurdles outing at Sedgefield and he hasn't tackled a fence since early December 2022.

DREAMS OF HOME won this race last year off a mark of 131 and then defied a 4lb rise and a 7.5 month break to win again at Kelso in December. hasn't quite been as good since, but now on a career-low mark and could easily bounce back.

CORRIGEEN ROCK finished 1122 over fences this season before a step up to Class 2 proved too much at Ascot earlier this month, as he was beaten by some 19 lengths. He's back down in class here, but only eased by a pound, so he might have to wait to pick up some winning form.

ASHINGTON has raced 42 times so far, but only 4 times over fences, with results reading 51P2 with the last of those races coming twenty weeks ago. He might need reacquainting with these bigger obstacles and I fear that 2m could be too sharp for him.

CASA TALL failed to win any of seven over hurdles, but is three from seventeen over fences, but was three from seven! He last won 18 months ago and with a run since then reading 25FB3664U4, I'd be surprised to see him back in the winner's enclosure here, despite the first-time cheekpieces.

SWORD OF FATE won a Class 5 chase here off a mark of 101 over 2m4½f almost a year ago, but then lost eleven on the bounce before a win last time out at Wetherby after his mark had finally relented to 100. If he runs like he did last time out, then he could well defy a 5lb rise and he did win off 106 over course and distance back in September 2021, but he rarely puts two good runs back to back and the race at Wetherby LTO did pretty much fall apart, so i'm not sure about him going in again here.

Instant Expert suggests that the top two on the card might well be the ones to focus on...

...and Casa Tall's record on good to soft puts a further red mark against his chances. Sword of Fate likes it here at Perth, but has struggled in this grade with his best form coming at Class 4. Top weight and featured runner, Dreams of Home is actually 1 from 2 over two miles, but has only won one of five when asked to go another half furlong, but he is a good 6lbs lower than his last win, whilst Corrigeen Rock is 8lbs higher than a winning run from early December.

Recent pace profiles from this handful of runners suggest that Casa Tall might get cut adrift if he's not careful...

...as there might be a fair bit of early pace on, but that alone wouldn't spell the end of his chances, as there doesn't appear to be too much of a pace bias from similar past races...

...and when there's little pace bias over fences then form and ability come tot he fore and that's what will speel the end of Casa Tall's chances!

Summary

Casa Tall isn't good enough to live with the other four in my opinion, but you could probably make a case for any of the others. That said, Ashington hasn't jumped a fence for a good while and would probably prefer a longer trip, whilst Sword of Fate is up 5lbs and has hardly been reliable at putting two good runs together.

So, almost by default, we're with the two that scored best on Instant Expert and featured horse Dreams of Home seems a more likely winner here based on the weights, but Corrigeen Rock should give him a decent race.

The competitive nature of the contest is shown by Hills (only market open at 3.40pm) early prices...

...but it'd be Dreams of Home to retain the race for me.