Tag Archive for: Perth racecourse

Racing Insights, Friday 22/04/22

Your fabulous Friday freebie is the Horses For Courses (H4C) report, which shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track as is, by default, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

And here's how my version of the H4C report looks for Friday...

In addition to this free report, we have (as always) a selection of fully functional racecards open to all readers and they are...

  • 2.25 Sandown
  • 4.00 Doncaster
  • 4.30 Doncaster
  • 5.00 Kilbeggan
  • 6.30 Kilbeggan

The H4C report only takes into consideration runs at the track and so should only be a starting point for a bet, it doesn't account for class, trip, going etc. so let me demonstrate my having a quick look at my two Friday "possibles", starting with Amalfi Doug, who runs in the 3.45 Perth, a 5-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (18 fences) over a right handed three miles on good to soft ground...

...where he's certainly not the pick on form and is older than all four rivals, but he does get weight from all of them, his yard do well at Perth and he's a former course and distance winner.

His career tally stands at 7 wins and 6 places from 36 races, which makes his Perth record quite remarkable at 7 wins, 5 places from 18! All 18 runs here have been in handicaps and they include...

  • 5 wins, 6 places from 15 over fences
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 at Class 3
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 at 3m/3m0.5f

but also just...

  • 2 wins and 2 places from 8 last year
  • 0 wins, 3 places on good to soft
  • and 0 runs under today's jockey

Instant Expert will verify some of the above, but also includes his defeats elsewhere...

A mixed bag for him there and certainly nowhere near the numbers of form horse Minella Trump, but he is 3lbs lighter than his last win and he looks set to do early battle with Minella if recent pace scores are anything to go by...

...and that could be his best bet of making the frame again, based on the way other small field 3m chases have gone here in the past...

Amalfi Doug is, of course, a 3-time course and distance winner, who has pretty much no form anywhere else and last won a race in early September, finishing 3rd of 4, last of 3 and pulled in his final three runs of last season. He returned to action at Kelso 18 days ago after 149 days off track, but after being headed 2 out ended up just 7th of 8, some 33 lengths adrift and a 3lb weight drop might no be enough here to see hold on for longer from his usual front-running tactics, especially if challenged early.

*

Next up we have Brotherly Company in the 5.10 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase (16 fences) over a left-handed 2m4½f on good (possibly slightly quicker) ground...

...where he, too, doesn't bring the best form to the table (Anightinlambourn & Steel Wave probably) and at 10 yrs of age is one of the older runners. He didn't go well last time out (7th) but has had a good rest of almost 11 weeks to get over it. A former course and distance winner, but neither trainer nor jockey seem in great recent form either and he's going be giving the field 4 to 13lbs here, although he does drop in class.

He has won 6 of 38 handicap starts to date and they include...

  • just 4/28 going left handed
  • 4/19 on good ground
  • 4/16 over fences
  • 4/15 in cheekpieces
  • 4/13 at Class 4
  • 4/12 for his current yard
  • 3/10 under today's jockey
  • 2/8 at 2m4.4f/2m5f
  • 3/5 here at Southwell
  • 2/2 here over fences
  • 1/1 over course and distance

...and Instant Expert can home in on just his handicap chase record...

...where he possibly has the second best set of figures behind the previously-mentioned Dreamsundermyfeet, both of whom are now rated just 3lbs higher than their last win. He's normally pretty consistent in his approach to races and the results he gets from them, so it's possibly no surprise that his 62 length defeat as 7th of 8 at Musselburgh last time out coincided with a change of tactics.

As you'll see below, he normally likes to either set the pace or at least be up near the leader(s), but for some reason he was held up LTO and never got going, so that run might be a false negative...

So, I'd still expect him to return to prominent/front-running tactics here, where he'll have company again from Dreamsundermyfeet amongst others, whilst the other form horse Steel Wave looks like he'll be waited with. Past similar contests suggest that both approaches work fine, but Steel Wave might have the edge.

Summary

Two horses with excellent track records, but I'd expect their fates to be quite different on Friday.

I don't really fancy Amalfi Doug at Perth and I can see it being a shootout between 15/8 fav Guy and 2nd fav Minella Trump at 9/4. of the two, i've got to say on the evidence above that I prefer the latter.

As for Brotherly Company at Southwell, I think he's more than capable of winning this, but I'm not sure that he will have enough to beat either or both of Dreamsundermyfeet or Steel Wave. The early market looks like it agrees and they have his two rivals locked at 10/3 joint favourites. If pushed for an opinion, I think Steel Wave might just prevail, but I'd certainly be interested in a 9/1 E/W bet on featured runner Brotherly Company.

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/04/22

The Instant Expert tab on the race cards is by far the most popular amongst our readers, because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.30 Perth
  • 2.40 Perth
  • 3.55 Tipperary
  • 4.10 Beverley
  • 5.15 Kilbeggan

...from which I'm going to look at another competitive, small-field handicap aka the 2.40 Perth, where six runners will tackle this Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle (10 flights) over a right-handed 2m4f on good to soft ground. The top prize is just a shade under £6,700 and it will go home with one of this half-dozen...

Three LTO winners in the field of six, but all six have at least one win from their last six outings, even if Coolbane Boy and Diamond State (who initially look the two weakest here) failed to finish last time out. Of the three LTO winners, No Risk Des Flos seeks a hat-trick, whilst top weight West To The Bridge is on a five-timer!

He ran in this grade last time out, as did the other two winners, whilst both Teescomponents Lad and Diamond State drop down from Class 2 action with Coolbane Boy's last run being in a Grade 2 event at Doncaster.

That was 82 days ago and that's the longest any of these have been off track and aside from No Risk Des Flos' 75 day break, the others have all raced in the last six weeks and all six runners have won at least once at a similar trip to today's but only Big Bad Bear has a Perth win under his belt, albeit in a bumper.

If we're looking for any form indicators from a trainer/jockey perspective, then No Risk des Flos would head the list with both yard and rider in decent form with good track records, but let's see how all six stack up...

WEST TO THE BRIDGE
8 from 28 over hurdles is a good return but he did lose 11 races in a row from December 2020 to mid-January this year which saw his mark tumble from 140 to 122, but has now won four on the bounce off 122, 130, 133 and 136. He's up another 3lbs here, so he's going to need a career-best performance to continue hi obvious fine form. He now sports cheekpieces for the first time, which should help, but there are doubts about his record on good to soft ground. That said, the Skeltons have a great record here at Perth...

TEESCOMPONENTS LAD
A likeable sort, often good for an E/W bet, having made the frame in 21 of his 29 starts to date. Six wins is reasonable, but I'd have liked to see him have more success. His last win came at Market Rasen five months ago off a mark of 130, but has lost three of his five runs since by 13.5 lengths or more, including a 25L deficit LTO when only fourth of five and is still 3lbs higher than that last win. He's 3 from 14 in cheekpieces and they're back on here, which is a plus.

NO RISK DES FLOS
Far less experienced/exposed than two above and comes here with a 4 from 8 record over hurdles having won each of his last two, both at Wetherby and both by a neck. He won over 2m in early December and then again two months later when tackling today's 2m4f for the first time. It's hard to assess how much more he has, as he just seems to do enough. He's up another 3lbs here, so it'll be interesting to see how he goes for a yard amongst the winners again...

COOLBANE BOY
Stays much further than this, as shown when winning by five lengths over three miles at Musselburgh two starts ago on New Year's Day, but had been beaten by 49, 17.5, 55.5 and 38.5 lengths in his previous four outings and was pulled up before 3 out in his latest run at Doncaster almost 12 weeks ago. That was a better race than this but his recent win seems the odd one out with him being 1 from 12.

BIG BAD BEAR
Has won four of fifteen over hurdles, which is reasonable, but the back story is that at the end of November 2020, he was three from five after a win at Doncaster off a mark of 128. He then lost nine on the bounce including some wide margin defeats before finally winning again last time out at Newcastle off a lowly 113. He's up 5lbs for that win, but is still 10lbs lower than the Doncaster win. That said, he doesn't seem the sort to back it up, even if he is well in based on past ratings.

DIAMOND STATE
Won over 2m at Musselburgh on his seasonal re-appearance last November, getting home by 8 lengths despite being off for 222 days and backed that win up with another a month later at the same track when stepped back up to today's 2m4f even after a 7lb rise. He then finished 223 in another trio of Musselburgh 2m4f contests before finally racing at another track last time out. After 11 runs over the Musselburgh hurdles, he raced at Kelso just under four weeks ago and fell at the second. Aside from mainly racing at Musselburgh, all his form is at Class 4 and his best run came off a mark of 107 with a 10lb claimer, he's now at 117 with no claimer, but...

Instant Expert tells us...

...that despite his poor return on good to soft ground, West To The Bridge is the proven runner at class/trip and goes really well in these small fields, unlike Teescomponents Lad who hasn't won enough in small fields or over this trip even if he does make the frame in over half of his starts. The relatively inexperienced No Risk Des Flos is two from three at this grade, which is very handy. Four of the six are three to five pounds higher than their last win, so they're all in the same boat in that regard, so those rises might not have as much effect.

The pace stats tell us...

...that West To The Bridge is highly likely to attempt to make all here, as he has done in each of his last four outings (4 wins), whilst Big Bad Bear is probably the one who'll hold up the rear. Now, just 7 of this field's previous 133 runs (5.26%) have been here at Perth, so the best pace approach might not be common knowledge to all of them, but thankfully we can advise, courtesy of our Pace Analyser...

...that those tactics recently employed by West To The Bridge would be spot on here.

Summary

I have some reservations about West To The Bridge's record on good to soft ground, but everything else seems to be in his favour here. He's well suited by class and trip, he's going to set the tempo here and his team have a great set of results at this venue, so I'm going to take a gamble on him 'getting' the ground and as such, a price of 5/2 might not be such a bad deal.

Other 5/2 jt favourite No Risk Des Flos should be the one to chase him home providing he doesn't hang too far back. If he does hang off the pace, then the likes of Teescomponents Lad might well stay on and nick his place and wouldn't be a bad 9/1 E/W shout. Betfred are set to pay 3 places, so I'll be interested to see what odds they offer about the Lad later.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/04/22

The Trainer Stats (TS) report is Wednesday's free GOLD feature and this report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course since 2009, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the free access to the TS report, we also have the following 'races of the day' for all to view...

  • 1.40 Catterick
  • 3.35 Perth
  • 4.20 Ludlow
  • 4.30 Catterick
  • 5.45 Bellewstown

Quite often my settings for the TS report ...

...are so restrictive that I have hardly any qualifiers, but I seem to be over inundated with them for Wednesday, so I'm going to leave them alone and head North for an intriguing-looking contest for the 3.35 Perth. It's a six-runner, Listed, 5yo+ Novice Hurdle (12 flights) over a right-handed three miles on good to soft ground. It's worth almost £13,100 and five of the following were priced at 3/1 to 4/1 on the opening show...

As you'd expect from a race of this standard, all six have some decent results under their belts, even if they do lack experience and most of them are stepping up in class here. Famous Bridge won a Class 2 contest last time out, whilst The Goffer was unplaced at that level, Galia des Liteaux was third in a Class 3, whilst Del la Mar Rocket was a Class 4 runner-up.

Mahler Mission has already won over 3m½f, so he's proven at the trip, but the others have yet to go beyond 2m7f. 33 to 46 days rest seems to be the popular option here with only Galia de Liteaux off track longer at 88 days.

Paul Nicholls (Complete Unknown) won this race last year and is in good form (14) whilst Gordon Elliott (The Goffer) has a good record at this track (C5). Five of the six jockeys have positive icons by their names with Sean Bowen (The Goffer) and Tom Scudamore (Mahler Mission) highlighted for both recent form and track record.

MAHLER MISSION
His only failure to make the frame in his five starts to date was when he was 7th of 16 in Gr 1 Alfred Bartlett at the recent Cheltenham Festival, so no disgrace there and it was a useful second attempt at 3m or further having already won a Gr 2 over similar at Doncaster in January. A repeat of that run puts him right in the mix here.

THE GOFFER
His sole run beyond 2m4½f saw him beaten by 10 lengths as 4th of 7 in a minor race at Thurles in January, but he dropped back to 2m4½f to land a Grade 3 novice event at the same track a month later. Didn't go well last time out, mind, when only 15th of 23 (24 lengths down) in the Partin Pipe Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham last month and is now up in class.

COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Won on bumper debut at Thurles a little over 13 months ago and has since raced five times over hurdles in the UK finishing 32321, improving every time culminating in a three lengths success in a big-field (17 ran) grade 3 contest at Sandown almost six weeks ago. Only 4 of his 16 rivals have re-emerged so far, but three of the four have won, albeit at a lower level. I've no doubts about his ability, but this is a half mile further than LTO and 2f further than he's ever raced.

DEL LA MAR ROCKET
A win and a runner-up finish from three Class 5 bumpers preceded a couple of poor Class 4 hurdles run. He then suddenly produced a win by 8.5 lengths at Ffos Las in January before backing it up with a runner-up finish at Uttoxeter. This all seems good, but he's never been beyond 2m6f, ran at 2m4f LTO and has never raced higher than Class 4 : this could be tough.

FAMOUS BRIDGE
The only blot on his hurdling copybook so far is when he unseated his rider 2 out on his Class 2 handicap debut two starts ago, but he soon made amends by winning by five lengths over 2m5f on soft ground next/last time out. has raced at 2m7f and was a 1.75 length runner-up on soft ground at Kelso just after Christmas, so the trip should be fine here and he's probably the 'form' horse overall.

GALIA DES LITEAUX
The only mare in the race is also the least experienced/exposed after just two starts under rules. We didn't learn much from her win on debut when coasting home by 30 lengths in a Class 4 race over 2m4f at Wetherby on Boxing Day, but she didn't have it all her own way when only third of eight at Ascot four weeks later, when stepped up to 2m5½f at Class 3. Up in trip here by another 2½f and up two classes means this is going to be a tricky assignment, although he did win her sole 3m PTP outing by eleven lengths, so she might well get the trip.

Not much in the way for results of any kind to go off, never mind form from similar races to this one, but let's see what relevant experience they do have by consulting the Instant Expert...

As I expected, really : not much to go off, but plenty of green blocks from the few runs they have had. Good to see that all three Class 1 runners have won at this level or higher, though. I'm not surprised now that the opening show of odds was so tight! Let's see if the pace angle of the race sheds any further light on things...

Galia des Liteaux has been keen to get on with things in her two runs so far, but might not be able to assert early with the likes of Del La Mar Rocket and possibly Mahler Mission in close company. The Goffer looks the one who'll be waited with. As for previous similar contests here at Perth...

...they have favoured those who press on.

Summary

I wasn't particularly keen on the chances of Del La Mar Rocket or The Goffer from the outset, based on form, class movement and their lack of experience at longer trips, whilst there's enough doubts about Galia des Liteaux on class to rule her out of my thoughts.

This instantly leaves me with three and whilst there's not going to be much between Complete Unknown, Famous Bridge and Mahler Mission, I fancy the 7/2 Complete Unknown to just about get the better of Mahler Mission. Paul Nicholls is in good form, he won this last year and his runner here was very impressive when landing a 17-runner grade 3 race last time out and rarely seems to run a bad race.

Racing Insights, 6th September 2021

The free feature on Mondays is totally free access for ALL readers to the pace tab for ALL races, including the following free races of the day...

  • 2.20 Perth
  • 4.35 Galway
  • 4.45 Newton Abbot
  • 5.05 Galway

I'm going to focus on the first of that list, which is an open-looking, nine-runner, Class 4, 4yo+, novices handicap chase over three miles on good ground worth £3,594 and here are the contenders for the 2.20 Perth...

The latest results for these nine have been patchy, but Staple Head, Grageelagh Girl and Doldrum Way probably shade it over the others with the likes of Frau Georgia and Grumpy Boots not finishing races as often as they'd like. Staple Head drops in class here and Bolbec & Grageelagh Girl both ran in this grade LTO, but the other six all step up in class. None of the field have won over this trip before and only Grageelagh Girl & Frau Georgia have tasted victory here at Perth before.

It has been over ten months since Grumpy Boots last graced the track, but the other eight have all been out at least once in the last six weeks. Trainers in form run Grageelagh Girl & Fresh New Dawn with the latter's jockey also riding well, as are those aboard Folks Like Us & Grumpy Boots. Trainers with good course records send Staple Head, Grageelagh Girl, Frau Georgia & Fresh New Dawn with the first three of those four horses being ridden by jockeys with a good track record here, as do those on Doldrum Bay & Grumpy Boots.

Bolbec carries top weight of 12-01 and that seems a lot to carry for a horse who has made the frame just once in six attempts over fences. His jumping has let him down of late, leading him to fail to complete two of his last three over fences and with this 3m trip set to test his stamina beyond 2m6.5f for the first time, his jumping might become a bit ragged once more.

Staple Head failed to complete a couple of 3m Hunter Chases in March/April prior to landing a 2m4f handicap at Market Rasen in mid-June. He has since raced twice here at Perth over course and distance, finishing 3rd of 7 (bt by 6.5L) at Class 4 and then he was last of 5, over 30 lengths adrift at Class 3. Both runs were off marks of 110 and he's 2lbs lower now, but I'm not convinced he gets three miles.

Grageelagh Girl is the older of the two mares in the race and she was pretty consistent over hurdles last year without winning. She then scored in a couple of PTP contests this and was only beaten by two lengths on her return to chasing in July (Newton Abbot, 3m2f). She ran better than the bare result suggests last time out when 11 lengths off the winner at Stratford over an inadequate trip. She has ran well here at Perth in the past in bumper/hurdle races and off a career-low mark could be dangerous.

Frau Georgia has more letters than numbers in her form from the last eight starts PP4PU35U (P5U over fences), but in her defence she was going well last time out but got hampered causing her to lose her rider and previously she was 5th here over course and distance with every chance 2 out, but tackling 3m for the first time took its toll and she faded from contention. Having now tried 3m, she needs to avoid trouble to be in the running here.

Fresh New Dawn, like all bar Staple Head here, has yet to win over fences, but his eight efforts have included some decent performances including a pair of runner-up finishes last year. He looked like he needed the run after 226 days off last time out and if he handles the step up in trip, could be one to consider off a low mark, 5lbs lower than his hurdles win and 4lbs lower than LTO.

Gun Merchant was a decent enough bumper/hurdler in Ireland for Gordon Elliott, but the transition to UK chasing hasn't quite gone the same way, although he has finished third in two of his last four and with a form line reading 63563 at trips of 3m and beyond, he might well be staying on when others struggle.

Folks Like Us won a 2m5f handicap hurdle at Kelso last October, but that's the only time he's made the frame in eleven career starts and he has struggled in three runs off higher marks since the win. His run at Sedgefield LTO was blighted by jumping errors, which isn't ideal preparation for a chase debut, as he also tackles 3m for the first time.

Doldrum Bay is a 10 yr old who has only raced nine times since finishing 7th of 17 on debut on Boxing Day 2015. His form in 2016/17 wasn't good at all and he was then off the track for 4 yrs and 2 months, before returning for new handlers in 3 course and distance runs here between 1st July and 14th August. Those runs saw him finish 5th of 14 (25L) over hurdles on his comeback, 2nd of 9 (13L) on chase debut and then 3rd of 12 (15L) back over hurdles LTO. Tough to call really, two placed finishes but well beaten both times, more needed here up in class.

Grumpy Boots was fairly abject over hurdles finishing 8th of 9 (58L), 6th of 8 (51L) and last of 7 (67L) and hasn't really fared much better over fences, although his 59L average margin of defeat over hurdles was reduced to 21 lengths in his first three over fences, he has since been pulled up in his last two. He's also up in class, returning from a long break and runs from 5lbs out of the handicap : difficult to like here.

With this field winning just once between them from forty-five efforts over fences, Instant Expert's win stats won't tell us much, other than how often they've failed under today's conditions...

...but the place side of things might give us more of a clue...

And I think that Fresh New Dawn looks the least worst of them there, but there's little to write home about anywhere.

And now for feature of the day, the pace tab. This tells us that leaders win more than their fair share of 8-10 runner handicap races, but those sitting in just behind the leaders fare best of all. Perth has proven to be a difficult place to win from if you're sat any further back, even over these longer trips...

As you're now probably aware, we log the running styles of every runner, so we can now show you their average pace position based on their last four runs...

Staple Head is an out and out leader with four scores of four including his win three starts ago, whilst the next three in the pace chart all have 2 scores of 3 and a 4 in their last four runs. Prior to looking at pace, I had these four in my top five for the race, along with Frau Georgia, who I still think has the potential to make the frame, but I'm now overlooking her based on pace.

Summary

Having semi-reluctantly discarded Frau Georgia at the last stage, I think I'm going to go with the four at the head of the pace scores and with prominent racers doing better than actual leaders, I'm going to omit pacemaker Staple head from my final three, leaving me alphabetically with Fresh New Dawn, Grageelagh Girl and Gun Merchant.

I like the way the mare has ran the last couple of times and now off a lower mark of 106, it could well be Grageelagh Girl's time to shine and her current 5/1 odds look fair and she might go off a bit shorter than that, so I'll have a nibble at 5's.

Of the other two, I think Fresh New Dawn's Instant Expert numbers tip the balance as my next best and at 9/1, he could be worth a small E/W tickle, whilst the market completely disagrees with me looking at Gun Merchant because he's the 12/1 outsider. I think that he could surprise a few people by staying on into the places when others struggle with the trip, so I'm going to play him at 12/1 E/W too.

So, a strange one here. Some days I do my analysis and walk away with no bet, but today I'm hedging with three! Good luck to all of you, whatever way you decide to play this one.