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Stat of the Day, 10th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.55 Ascot : Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leading pair on inside, went 2nd on inner over 2f out, led 2f out, ridden and headed entering final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Perth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Running In Heels @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m½f on Good ground, worth £4640 to the winner... 

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

On what looks a poor day of racing, this one caught my eye from a variety of different statistical angles, but I'll just share a few ideas with you (for the sake of brevity and your boredom!)

A switch to Gavin Patrick Cromwell's yard at the end of February seems to have re-ignited a spark in this 9 yr old mare, as she has 4 wins and 2 places from 9 runs since, including winning two of her three efforts over fences, the most recent being a win in another Class 4 Novice handicap Chase at Sedgefield 11 days ago under today's jockey Brian Hughes.

Mr Cromwell's runners are 3 from 15 (20% SR) over the last 7 days, whilst since the start of 2015, they are 4 from 14 (28.6% SR) for 15.92pts (+113.7% ROI) profit here at Perth. Admittedly a small sample size, but interestingly regarding today's pick/race...

  • handicappers are 3/9 (33.3%) for 13.27pts (+147.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 15.27pts (+218.1%)
  • at 3m/3m½f : 3/6 (50%) for 17.27pts (+345.3%)
  • chasers are 2/5 (40%) for 5.34pts (+106.8%)
  • and those racing after a short break of 11-20 days are 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.34pts (+244.7%)

Not numbers to hang your hat on, but surely more than coincidental?

Gavin does seem to fare better with his chasers than the rest of his string and again since the start of 2015, his record over fences stands at 20 winners from 116 (17.2% SR) for 39.7pts (+34.2% ROI) profit if backed blindly, with handicappers winning 20 of 89 (22.5%) for 66.7pts (74.9%). Not that we'd necessarily advocate blindly following anyone, but the following filters applied tot hose 89 Handicap chasers look both useful and profitable...

  • those who raced within the previous 45 days are 16/72 (22.2%) for 59.7pts (+82.9%)
  • at trips of 3m to 3m5½f : 10/42 (23.8%) for 58.8pts (+140.1%)
  • in the UK : 8/23 (34.8%) for 28.3pts (+123.1%)
  • 9 yr olds are 4/11 (36.4%) for 13.5pts (+122.6%)
  • in UK Class 4 contests : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.01pts (+44.6%)
  • and here at Sedgefield : 1/1 for 1.67pts.

And for the last piece of data I'm sharing today, I'll move away from trainer specifics and look at a more general picture. Since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 Handicap Chases, those runners priced at 6/4 to 7/1 racing 6 to 15 days after winning a Novice Chase last time out are 27 from 82 (32.9% SR) for 28.8pts (+35.1% ROI) and these include...

  • those who ran (and won) in a Novice Handicap LTO are 27/79 (34.2%) for 31.8pts (+40.2%)
  • those now running in a Novice Handicap are 14/38 (36.8%) for 19.9pts (+52.4%)
  • those whose last run and current run were both Novice Hcp Chases are 14/36 (38.9%) for 21.9pts (+60.9%)
  • those racing over trips of 3m/3m½f are 8/18 (44.4%) for 20.3pts (+112.6%)
  • and those who ran (and won) in a Novice Handicap LTO and are now running in a Novice Handicap over a trip of 3m/3m½f are 4/8 (50%) for 15.6pts (+194.7%)

I could go on, but I'll leave you to take a look at the racecard for yourself, where you'll see that jockey Brian Hughes is in good form (14 & 30 icons) and that he has a good strike rate at this track recently (C1 icon) and so on...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Running In Heels @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by half a dozen firms as of 5.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.55 Ascot : Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leading pair on inside, went 2nd on inner over 2f out, led 2f out, ridden and headed entering final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Perth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Running In Heels @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m½f on Good ground, worth £4640 to the winner... 

Why?

On what looks a poor day of racing, this one caught my eye from a variety of different statistical angles, but I'll just share a few ideas with you (for the sake of brevity and your boredom!)

A switch to Gavin Patrick Cromwell's yard at the end of February seems to have re-ignited a spark in this 9 yr old mare, as she has 4 wins and 2 places from 9 runs since, including winning two of her three efforts over fences, the most recent being a win in another Class 4 Novice handicap Chase at Sedgefield 11 days ago under today's jockey Brian Hughes.

Mr Cromwell's runners are 3 from 15 (20% SR) over the last 7 days, whilst since the start of 2015, they are 4 from 14 (28.6% SR) for 15.92pts (+113.7% ROI) profit here at Perth. Admittedly a small sample size, but interestingly regarding today's pick/race...

  • handicappers are 3/9 (33.3%) for 13.27pts (+147.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 15.27pts (+218.1%)
  • at 3m/3m½f : 3/6 (50%) for 17.27pts (+345.3%)
  • chasers are 2/5 (40%) for 5.34pts (+106.8%)
  • and those racing after a short break of 11-20 days are 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.34pts (+244.7%)

Not numbers to hang your hat on, but surely more than coincidental?

Gavin does seem to fare better with his chasers than the rest of his string and again since the start of 2015, his record over fences stands at 20 winners from 116 (17.2% SR) for 39.7pts (+34.2% ROI) profit if backed blindly, with handicappers winning 20 of 89 (22.5%) for 66.7pts (74.9%). Not that we'd necessarily advocate blindly following anyone, but the following filters applied tot hose 89 Handicap chasers look both useful and profitable...

  • those who raced within the previous 45 days are 16/72 (22.2%) for 59.7pts (+82.9%)
  • at trips of 3m to 3m5½f : 10/42 (23.8%) for 58.8pts (+140.1%)
  • in the UK : 8/23 (34.8%) for 28.3pts (+123.1%)
  • 9 yr olds are 4/11 (36.4%) for 13.5pts (+122.6%)
  • in UK Class 4 contests : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.01pts (+44.6%)
  • and here at Sedgefield : 1/1 for 1.67pts.

And for the last piece of data I'm sharing today, I'll move away from trainer specifics and look at a more general picture. Since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 Handicap Chases, those runners priced at 6/4 to 7/1 racing 6 to 15 days after winning a Novice Chase last time out are 27 from 82 (32.9% SR) for 28.8pts (+35.1% ROI) and these include...

  • those who ran (and won) in a Novice Handicap LTO are 27/79 (34.2%) for 31.8pts (+40.2%)
  • those now running in a Novice Handicap are 14/38 (36.8%) for 19.9pts (+52.4%)
  • those whose last run and current run were both Novice Hcp Chases are 14/36 (38.9%) for 21.9pts (+60.9%)
  • those racing over trips of 3m/3m½f are 8/18 (44.4%) for 20.3pts (+112.6%)
  • and those who ran (and won) in a Novice Handicap LTO and are now running in a Novice Handicap over a trip of 3m/3m½f are 4/8 (50%) for 15.6pts (+194.7%)

I could go on, but I'll leave you to take a look at the racecard for yourself, where you'll see that jockey Brian Hughes is in good form (14 & 30 icons) and that he has a good strike rate at this track recently (C1 icon) and so on...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Running In Heels @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by half a dozen firms as of 5.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 23rd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 23

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £163.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,080.30 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

2015: £4,385.10 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £38.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £844.90 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £508.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2011: £262.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,140.44

45 favourites - 12 winners - 12 placed - 21 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.5% units went through – 11/8* - 10/1 – 3/1

Race 2: 22.9% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 25/1 – 6/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 20/1 – 25/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 74.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 2/1*

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 15/2 – 33/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 60.5% of the units secured the dividend – 10/1 – 2/1* - 7/1

 

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 9 (Beyond Reason) & 7 (San Donato)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Crystal Spirit) & 4 (Idaho)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Mutawaffer), 19 (Sabre) & 6 (Jungle Inthebungle)

Leg 4 (4.20): 7 (Merchant Navy), 9 (Redkirk Warrior) & 4 (Harry Angel)

Leg 5 (5.00): 18 (Gilgamesh), 28 (Ultimate Avenue), 6 (Ice Age) & 7 (Dreamfield)

Leg 6 (5.35): 11 (Thomas Mullins), 12 (Count Octave) & 8 (Pallasator)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Sometimes the truth has to be told and this first race on the card sums up what I consider to be a relatively poor day of racing on Saturday.  Seven meetings have ‘watered down’ the sport on offer and respectfully, one of the old ‘Ascot Heath’ cards on the Saturday of the meetings in times gone by offered more competitive racing than might be on show today.  The ITV media team will try and have yours truly up in court I’ll wager, though I will let you be the judge once today’s racing is over. Upwards and onward by nominating BEYOND REASON and SAN DONATO against Mark Johnston’s warm favourite Natalies Joy in the opening event.  The first named Charlie Appleby raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts as the furlong pole is reached, whilst Roger Varian was waxing lyrical about his Lope De Vega colt well before his Yarmouth debut when he was sent off as favourite to beat what turned out to be an impressive John Gosden runner who will also go on to better things.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with eight winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six of the last twelve winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and with four-year-olds having won the last ten contests, Michael's raider CRYSTAL SPIRIT is taken to atone for last season’s beaten stable companion Dartmouth.  Michael’s recent ratio stands at 6/17, stats which have produced 23 points of level stake profit, notwithstanding five placed horses during the period, which included those sent off at 14/1 (twice) and 10/1. Last year’s winner IDAHO is taken to offer most resistance to the selection.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged during the last 19 years, whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

3.40: Last year’s 13/8 favourite finished stone last of the 22 runners, albeit Ryan more put the brakes on when all chance of winning had gone some way from home. Favourite backers will be hoping for a better run for their collective monies this time around (should not prove difficult), though which horse will be sent off as the market leader on this occasion is open to debate.  Whichever way the wind blows in the betting ring this afternoon, my trio against the field from a Placepot angle consists of MUTAWAFFER. SABRE and JUNGLE INTHEBUNGLE, though I wouldn’t have a bet from a win perspective with your money.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst ten of the twenty market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed Placepot positions.

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years:

5 winners—7 placed—34 unplaced

Starting price stats in the last 14 years:

3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-4 unplaced

Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—36 unplaced

8/1 or more: 9 winners—-22 placed-—220 unplaced

 

4.20: Given that so many of the players meet each other on a regular basis, MERCHANT NAVY and REDKIRK WARRIOR have to be of interest if we are trying to avoid working out with one of the graded race greyhounds is going to deliver today.  We know that HARRY ANGEL has plenty of ability but having as much media coverage as Neymar is the World Cup of late, he is still not a cast iron type that I want to be pinning my hopes on, albeit his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  I’ve yet to get The Tin Man right and I doubt today will be any different. When I back the six-year-old he decides to down tools and vice versa.  Speculative investors might want an each way saver on Sir Dancealot who looks overpriced at 50/1 with three firms at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 18 of the last 21 favourites have been beaten, whilst 12 of the last 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  No matter how ‘media types’ hype this race up, the record of favourites proves it to be a contest to avoid in terms of serious punting.

 

5.00: Four-year-olds represent a vintage that have snared seven victories in this contest in the last twenty years, whilst five-year-olds have won ten times during the last twenty renewals of the ‘Wokingham‘.  Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, as have 26 of the last 44 horses to have finished in the frame.  Placepot offering via the stats: GILGAMESH, ULTIMATE AVENUE and ICE AGE.  Reserve nominations: DREAMFIELD and SILENT ECHO.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty three market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful favourites.

 

5.35: This remains the longest race on the flat calendar, just ten yards further than a race contested at Pontefract!  The obvious place to start is with THOMAS HOBSON who finished second in this event last year having won the Ascot Stakes earlier in the week. Willie Mullins did not have the resort to running the horse twice this week, having secured four of the first five places in the marathon event on Tuesday this year, including the 9/1 winner.  Andrew Balding usually offers an each way type in the last race of the week and COUNT OCTAVE with attract plenty of win and place interest I’ll wager.  It’s pretty much impossible to ignore Gordon Elliot’s only runner here this week, namely PALLASATOR.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, with another six market leaders finishing in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2018

Friday's Pick was...

5.55 Ayr : Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 10/1 (Mid-division, kept on same pace final 2f)

Next up is Saturday's...

5.40 Perth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good ground worth £5913 to the winner... 

Why?

This 8yr old mare has been in tremendous form for a year now, winning six of her nine starts in that time with two runner-up finishes and a third place her worst result in a form line reading 211123111!

This run has culminated in a course and distance success here at Perth in a Class 3 contest 37 days ago and although she's up another 4lbs for that effort, she does take a drop in class today.

Her record over hurdles is excellent and includes the following of note/relevance today...

  • 6 wins and 2 places from 14 over 2m/2m0.5f
  • 5 wins and 2 places from 8 with a tongue tie
  • 4 wins and 2 places from 6 (her last 6) under today's jockey James Corbett
  • 3 wins from 6 after a break of 1 to 2 months
  • 2 wins and a place from her three visits to this track
  • 2 from 2 over 2m/2m0.5f here
  • 1 from 1 (LTO) over this course and distance

She is trained by Susan Corbett, whose own record here at Perth stands at 6 from 27 (22.2% SR) for 55pts (+203.7% ROI) since 2014, including...

  • hurdlers @ 6/23 (26.1%) for 59pts (+256.6%)
  • James Corbett with 5 wins from 20 (25%) for 58.9pts (+294.5%)
  • and handicappers are 5/17 (29.4%) for 47.3pts (+278.2%) : all of which were hurdlers ridden by James Corbett.

In addition to the above, Susan's LTO winners are 6 from 29 (20.7% SR) for 5.93pts (+20.4% ROI) since the start of 2016, from which...

  • hurdlers are 4/17 (23.5%) for 8.86pts (+52.1%)
  • those running 21-45 days after the LTO win are 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.74pts (+108.2%)
  • whilst here at Perth = 2/5 (40%) for 2.44pts (+48.8%)

Now, more generally and over a longer term with a much bigger sample size...in UK handicap hurdles since the start of 2013, horses with the CD logo next to their name who were also LTO winners 16 to 120 days earlier are 109/547 (19.9% SR) for 110.8pts (+20.3% ROI), including...

  • those who won over C&D LTO : 85/392 (21.7%) for 91.9pts (+23.5%)
  • 8 yr olds : 20/84 (23.8%) for 55.1pts (+65.6%)
  • in June : 11/40 (27.5%) for 45pts (+112.5%)
  • 8 yr olds who won over C&D LTO : 13/61 (21.3%) for 23.7pts (+38.9%)
  • LTO C&D winners running in June : 10/27 (37%) for 54pts (+200%)
  • and 8 yr old LTO C&D winners running in June : 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.77pts (+168.1%)

And finally, before I wrap this one up, I want to quickly acknowledge this mare's breeding, as her father is Ivan Denisovich and his offspring excel in this type of contest as demonstrated by...

  • 25 wins from 151 (16.6%) for 205.3pts (+135.9%) over trips of 2m to 2m1.5f
  • 20 wins from 151 (13.25%) for 159.5pts (+105.6%) over hurdles
  • and his hurdlers over 2m to 2m1.5f are 17/109 (15.6%) for 183.2pts (+168.1%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 7.35pm on Friday evening with plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 3rd June

FAKENHAM – JUNE 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £241.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 32.2% units went through – 9/2 & 7/2 (Evens)

Race 2: 12.4% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 (Win only – 11/8)

Race 3: 45.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 & 2/1*

Race 4: 45.5% of the remaining units went through – Evens (Win only – 4/5)

Race 5: 57.5% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 & 15/8*

Race 6: 64.3% of the units secured the dividend – 6/4* & 11/4

Speculative Placepot investors last year might have been slightly disappointed with the eventual dividend, given that the ‘Pot’ was worth the thick end of twenty pounds (after deductions) following just two races…..

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Fakenham: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 1 (Emmas Dilemma) & 5 (Fifty Shades)

Leg 2 (2.50): 2 (Easy Street), 3 (Hedginator) & 5 (Mercers Court)

Leg 3 (3.25): 5 (Yensir) & 2 (Guiding Stars)

Leg 4 (3.55): 4 (Gin And Tonic), 3 (Master Of Finance), 2 (Le Precieux) & 1 (Ballycamp)

Leg 5 (4.25): 8 (Bisoubisou) & 6 (Dizzey Heights)

Leg 6 (4.55): 6 (Midnight Bliss) & 1 (Youngoconnor)

Suggested stake: 192 bets to 10p stakes

 

Your first 30 days for just £1
  • The race-planners have been at the port again judged by the decision not to hold over at least one of yesterday’s half decent meetings until today – given the moderate fayre on offer.
  • This is compounded by the fact that in the middle of the flat (turf) season, there are three NH fixtures and one A/W meeting on Tuesday’s calendar. It is simply is not good enough…..

 

2.20: Olly Murphy has greeted two of his last five runners in the area reserved for winners of late, with one of them obliging at 33/1. Olly’s beaten Market Rasen favourite EMMAS DILEMMA has been given a chance to atone for that defeat, albeit the declaration of FIFTY SHADES will ensure that connections will not become over confident about their representative.  Amble Inn is expected to secure the bronze medal.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

 

2.50: This contest offered punters a ‘win only’ race twelve months ago, resulting in over 83% of the live Placepot units going up in smoke.  With just five runners declared today, a non-runner would certainly put the cat in amongst the pigeons and I have opted for three runners, just in case one of the trainers suffers a dizzy spell now that summer is showing signs of arriving with an element of consistency.  Jonjo O’Neill sits joint sixth in the NH table this season relating to the number of winners saddled (eight in total) and there must be a chance that the popular handler can land this event with EASY STREET, though it should be noted that two years have passed since Jonjo’s eight-year-old posted back-to-back victories.  HEDGEINATOR is marginally preferred to MERCERS COURT as the main threat.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Fakenham card.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/5—Running Wolf (soft)

1/4—Mercers Court (good)

 

3.25: Four-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, though it is two of the quintet of five-year-old raiders which catch the eye on this occasion.  Olly Murphy boasts a wonderful 31% ratio via fifteen winners at this venue and YENSIR could add the tally this afternoon, irrespective of whether Emmas Dilemma started the ball rolling in the opening contest on the card.  GUIDING STARS is expected to account for Haafapeice on the run to the line but whether Harry Whittington’s Bonbon Rose gelding can master YENSIR remains to be seen.

Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites to date secured two gold medals and three of the silver variety, with the other pair of market leaders (6/4 & 9/4) finishing out with the washing.

 

3.55: Four intended runners were quickly whittled down to two last year but even then, punters failed to make the right horse favourite with the 4/5 chance having to play second fiddle.  The race has only attracted four runners again and I am not about to dissect the field with the quartet being closely matched on what we have witnessed to date.  I will simply be including all four runners in my permutation, hoping that the horse with the least units prevails.  I tend to offer another (smaller) perm by including a line which ops for the returned favourite, just to add insurance in case the ‘jolly’ prevails which would, of course, ensure that a smaller eventual dividend would declared that would otherwise be the case.  If the proverbial gun was pointed to my head demanding the name of the winner, I guess I would opt for Gin And Tonic who has secured three of his five victories to date at this venue.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have failed to claim Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the course and distance winner in the field:

3/13—Gin And Tonic (2 x soft & good)

 

4.25: 18 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions in the finale have been secured by horses carrying weights of 11-5 or less, statistics which include eight of the nine winners at 15/2-6/1-5/1-9/2-11/4-11/4-9/4-7/4. The pick of this year’s relevant horses should prove to be BISOUBISOU and DIZZEY HEIGHTS.  We have already lost the ‘dead eight’ factor in this event, though I am confident that this pair will see us safely through to the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have finished in the money thus far, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the three course and distance winners in the fifth race:

2/20—Occasionally Yours (good & good to soft)

1/3—Dizzey heights (good)

1/1—Bisoubisou (heavy)

 

4.55: It’s Sunday in this green and pleasant land whereby it might be appropriate to go down on our knees and pray for the remaining five runners to stand their ground in the ‘lucky last’!  I often have to defend myself for being involved in racing and the church but as I invariably insist, if it’s good enough for the head of the Church of England (The Queen) – it’s good enough for me!  Just in case you are ready to take issue, I am a man of faith – not religion, which might put out a few fires out there which are beginning to burn!  Upwards and onward be declaring that YOUNGOCONNOR and MIDNIGHT BLISS should land the ‘Pot’ for us if we are still live going into the finale.

Favourite factor: This event is a new race on the Fakenham card.

1/2—Millen Dollar Man (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 17th May

YORK – MAY 17

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £10.865.10 (6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £349.40 (10 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 6 unplaced)

2015: £354.20 (6 favourite: 1 winner - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,473.10 (6 favourite: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2013: £938.30 (6 favourite: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £50.10 (9 favourite: 2 winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £20.40 (6 favourite: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average dividend: £2,007.23 - Favourite stats: 49 in total - 10 winners - 13 placed - 26 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.4% units went through – 13/2 – 12/1 – 10/1 (6/1)

Race 2: 6.1% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 (Win only – 11/8)

Race 3: 43.5% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 4/1* - 8/1

Race 4: 40.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 11/2* - 8/1 – 11/1

Race 5: 6.6% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 9/1 (5/6)

Race 6: 37.2% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 – 10/1 – 9/2 (7/2)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 9 (East Street Revue), 17 (Royal Brave), 5 (Copper Knight) & 3 (Edward Lewis)

Leg 2 (2.55): 2 (Coronet) & 5 (Mori)

Leg 3 (3.30): 6 (Roaring Lion), 1 (Cross Baton) & 4 (Mildenburger)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Original Choice) & 3 (Cape Byron)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Roussel), 3 (Declarationofpeace) & 9 (Main Desire)

Leg 6 (5.05): 10 (True Belief) & 5 (Kessaar)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Eight of the ten winners have scored at 33/1-25/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-10/1-10/1-10/1 and if the trend of percentages (prices) is to be extended, we can expect a winner returned around the 10/1 mark.  The ‘official marks’ of the winners to date were 103-87-89-95-89-96-92-100-104-90 (average of 94).  Eight of the ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, whilst four of the last eight contests have been secured by seven-year-olds.  Putting all the stats and facts together produces a short list of EAST STREET REVUE (only horse running off 94 today), ROYAL BRAVE (pick of the two seven-year-olds) and COPPER KNIGHT.  The reserve nomination is awarded to EDWARD LEWIS.

Favourite factor: Six of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame though we still await the first successful market leader.

Draw factor (five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

11-16-8 (12 ran-soft)

4-15-10-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-3-10 (15 ran-good)

4-12-10-11 (19 ran-good to soft)

5-15-6 (15 ran-good)

5-15-14-2 (16 ran-good)

9-8-16-11 (18 ran-good)

4-8-16-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-12 (15 ran-good)

1-3-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

York record of the eleven course winners in the opening race:

1/4—Gracious John (good)

1/3—Major Jumbo (good to soft)

1/3—Copper Knight (good)

1/1—Holmeswood (good)

1/8—Desert Law (good to soft)

2/6—East Street Revbue (2 x good)

1/13—Line Of Reason (good to firm)

1/4—George Dryden (good)

1/5—Excessable (good to firm)

1/5—Carlton Frankie (good)

1/5—Rosina (good to firm)

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.55: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 20 renewals of this contest, with five-year-olds having won the other six contests. The pair of six-year-olds (Chain Of Daisies and Smart Call) are passed over accordingly, hopefully leaving CORNET and MORI to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  Horseplay is booked for the bronze medal from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.

York record of the course winner in the second event:

1/1—Chain Of Daisies (good to firm)

 

3.30: Four of the last 14 winners of the ‘Dante’ have gone on to win the Epsom Derby notwithstanding 33/1 winner Libertarian (2013) which finished second to Leader Of The Word at Epsom.  Throw in The Grey Gatsby (won the French Derby in 2014) and we can see why the 'Dante' remains a true Derby trial.  John Gosden has won the last two renewals of this event when represented and the popular trainer would surely have been coming to the gig on a four timer on this occasion but for Cracksman having been withdrawn twelve months ago because of the prevailing soft ground. John has declared ROARING LION (fifth in the 2000 Guineas recently) and CROSSED BATON, winner of his last three races, the last of which was the Epsom ‘trial’.  MILDENBURGER is a typical Mark Johnston terrier who will not go down without a fight, though WELLS FARHH GO might have needed softer conditions to slow down the opposition.  I’m not sure that James Cook will be good enough, despite this looking to be a slightly sub-standard field.

Favourite factor:  Five of the last 19 market leaders have obliged, whilst eleven of the 20 jollies have reached the frame during the study period.

York record of the course winner in the Dante Stakes:

2/2—Wells Farhh Go (2 x good to soft)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last seventeen renewals, whilst eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones.  William Haggas snared a 21/1 double on yesterday’s card and the trainer boasts definite claims here with ORIGINAL CHOICE possessing ticks on both of the trend boxes.  CAPE BYRON appears to be the main threat, whilst ISOMER has an each way chance on the best of his form.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 25 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (six winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

12-1-9-13 (17 ran-soft)

16-8-5-11 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-6-17-7 (18 run-good)

1-4-3 (11 ran-good to soft)

16-14-11 (15 ran-good)

3-4-2 (11 ran-good)

8-7-6-2 (18 ran-good)

4-13-12 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-5-8 (15 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-11-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-4-6 (13 ran-soft)

12-5-11-17 (17 ran-good to soft)

11-8-1 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

10-1-6 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-2-4 (13 ran-firm)

6-9-1 (10 ran-soft)

York record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/5—Custom Cut (good)

 

4.35: DECLARATIONOFPEACE looks to be the likeliest winner on the card for Aidan O’Brien having won two of his last three races to close out a decent juvenile season.  That said, we have least two home contenders with chances of keeping the prize this side of the Irish Sea, namely the ultra-consistent Charlie Appleby trained ROUSSEL and Michael Bel’s MAIN DESIRE, who could yet be anything following just two juvenile assignments.

Favourite factor: Four of the ten favourites (via nine renewals) have finished in the money to date, statistics which include three (10/3-4/6-4/5) winners.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-1 (5 ran-good to soft)

4-10-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-5-8 (10 ran-good)

2-6 (6 ran-good)

2-8 (5 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

1-7-8 (8 ran-good)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

3-7-1 (8 ran-good)

York record of three course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Sound And Silence (good)

1/2—Hey Jonesy (good to soft)

1/1—Main Desire (soft)

 

5.05: The two runners currently at the head of the market look set to complete my Placepot permutation of the middle day for the meeting. There appears to be plenty of confidence in both TRUE BELIEF (Charlie Appleby) and KESSAAR (John Gosden) and unless jungle drums have been beating about any of the other contenders when I have had my headphones on (which I might have missed accordingly), I’ll settle for this pair against the remaining eight entries.

Favourite factor: 17 of the last 20 winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, whilst eight favourites have obliged.  13 of the last 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

6-10-9 (8 ran-good to soft)

1-3-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

13-3-7 (12 ran-good)

1-6-8 (8 ran-good)

10-13-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-5-2 (13 ran-good)

5-2-12 (11 ran-good)

6-12-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-4 (10 ran-good)

6-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

6-3-10 (11 ran-soft)

6-5-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6 (10-good to firm)

2-3-11 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-9-6 (13 ran-firm)

9-10-3 (9 ran-soft)

7-6 (7 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

9.05 Perth : Creevytennant @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Made all, ridden after last, just held on gamely by a head)

We stay in Scotland for Thursday's...

4.15 Perth

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 3,  2 mile Handicap Hurdle  on good to soft ground worth £8837 to the winner... 

Why?

And another in-form runner. This 8 yr old mare has made the frame in each of her last seven races, winning five of them including the last two, so she now bids for a hat-trick today. She won over this very course and distance last time out, 22 days ago, taking her career strike over hurdles to an excellent 24.2% courtesy of 8 wins from 33 and in the context of today's race, those 33 efforts have seen her achieve the following...

  • 6 wins, 5 places from 28 in handicaps
  • 6 wins, 5 places from 20 when running 16-60 days after her last run
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 over 2m/2m0.5f
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 11 on good to soft
  • 4 wins, 4 places from 9 going right handed
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 over 2 miles
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 wearing a tongue tie
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 6 for trainer Susan Corbett
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 under jockey James Corbett
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 4 as favourite
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 in 2018
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 here at Perth
  • 1 win from 1 effort over course and distance (LTO).

In addition to her own excellent stats...Since the start of 2013 in UK handicap hurdle contests, former course and distance winners who won LTO or were beaten by less than 2 lengths are 231/1051 (22% SR) for 197pts (+18.7% ROI) backed blindly on their return to that C&D venue, from which...

  • those running over the same C&D as LTO : 149/658 (22.6%) for 126.9pts (+19.3%)
  • 11-30 days since last run : 123/561 (21.9%) for 148.1pts (+26.4%)
  • March to June : 85/380 (22.4%) for 188.1pts (+49.5%)
  • 8 to 10 yr olds  : 70/347 (20.2%) for 144.5pts (+41.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 73/268 (27.2%) for 205pts (+76.5%)
  • 8 yr olds : 34/163 (20.9%) for 43.9pts (+26.9%)
  • in May : 20/95 (21%) for 32.4pts (+34.1%)
  • and here at Perth : 12/51 (23.5%) for 16.9pts (+33.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 and Betway at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 16th May

YORK – MAY 16

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £310.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £32.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2015: £3,142.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,860.60 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2013: £305.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £3,044.20 (6 favourites: No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £2,943.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner & 5 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,662.73 - 45 favourites - 15 winners - 5 placed - 25 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 20.6% units went through – 12/1 – 7/1 – 20/1 – 25/1 (6/1)

Race 2: 37.2% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 6/1** - 14/1 – 8/1 (6/1**)

Race 3: 12.1% of the remaining units went through – 14/1 – 14/1 – 25/1 (5/2)

Race 4: 82.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* & 12/1

Race 5: 69.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 16/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 44.4% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 4/1 – 12/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 6 (Hamanda) & 7 (Now Children)

Leg 2 (2.55): 16 (Private Matter), 8 (Golden Apollo), 9 (El Hombre) & 12 (Orion’s Bow)

Leg 3 (3.30): 6 (Tasleet) & 1 (Harry Angel)

Leg 4 (4.05): 6 (Highgarden) & 1 (Ceilidhs Dream)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Clubbable), 12 (Cavatina), 6 (Queen’s Sargent) & 3 (Zap)

Leg 6 (4.55): 3 (Charming Kid) & 7 (World Order)

Suggested stake: 256 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Four-year-olds have won the last five contests, whilst horses carrying weights of 9-1 or less have won ten of the last fourteen renewals.  Four horses qualify this time around, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be HAMADA and NOW CHILDREN ahead of Tuff Rock and Contango.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the twenty seven market leaders have reached the frame during the study period, stats which includes six winning favourites.

 

2.55: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen renewals, confirming their ‘recent’ dominance having secured a 1-2-3 result seven years ago via eight representatives in the twenty strong line up.  Twelve of the last thirteen winners carried a maximum burden of 9-3.  Relevant horses PRVATE MATTER (drawn 3/19), GOLDEN APOLLO (16) and EL HOMBRE (14) form my speculative ‘short list’ on this occasion.  If vintage representatives are to be denied this time around, ORION’S BOW (9) might prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 28 favourites have secured Placepot positions, with just three favourites prevailing from a win perspective during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result offered first):

8-2-1-16 (16 ran-soft)

5-9-1-4 (18 ran-good)

11-14-4-1 (17 ran-good)

20-5-19-14 (20 ran-soft)

18-3-5 (15 ran-good to soft)

15-6-18-7 (19 ran-good)

8-7-3-14 (20 ran-good to firm)

11-8-17 (13 ran-good to firm)

15-13-17-16 (16 ran-soft)

12-10-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

13-7-12 (13 ran-good)

7-8-9-10 (17 ran-soft)

1-5-15-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

12-10-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

6-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-5-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-14-12-7 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16 (15 ran-firm)

2-9-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good)

York record of the six course winners in the second race on the card:

1/6—Terentum Star (good)

1/6—Flying Pursuit (good to soft)

2/10—Out Do (2 x good)

1/3—Golden Apollo (good to firm)

1/4—Classic Seniority (good)

2/4—Dark Defender (good & good to soft)

 

3.30: Four and five-year-olds have claimed 13 of the last 19 renewals, with the older of the two vintages leading 8-5 during the period.  It might prove foolish to suggest that last year’s 14/1 winner TASLEET only scored on account of the soft ground, even though his two course victories tell us that moisture in the turf holds no worries for connections.  Equally however, the William Haggas raider has finished in the first two in three of his five assignments on good to firm (including one victory), whereby there should be no excuse on account of today’s conditions.  All that said, HARRY ANGEL is supposedly fit and ready for this event and has “strengthened up” tremendously well over the winter.  Unfortunately, we heard similar words for the connections of Eminent last week at Chester before investors suffered first degree burns on the Roodee.  Outsiders have a really good record in this event but I’m struggling to nominate a winner from that sector, even though Sir Dancealot remains a horse of undoubted potential.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this event during the last twenty years, though just three of the other sixteen market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions.  Eight of the last twelve winners have scored at 40/1-25/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-10/1.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

9-12-3 (12 ran-soft)

4-9-6 (12 ran-good)

7-12-2 (15 ran-good)

4-2-5 (13 ran-soft)

18-15-4 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-12-3 (13 ran-good)

9-12-8 (14 ran-good)

1-11-6 (12 ran-good)

3-11-6 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-7 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-1-13 (17 ran-good)

2-13-9 (16 ran-good to soft)

9-10-5 (11 ran-soft)

5-14-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

3-12-1 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-4-9 (10 ran-firm)

8-1-2 (14 ran-soft)

3-5-4 (10 ran-good)

York record of the two course winners in the third contest:

1/1—Sir Dancealot (good)

2/3—Tasleet (Good to soft & soft)

 

4.05 ('Musidora'): John Gosden has won five of the last six renewals when represented and John has offered the green light to his Nathanial filly HIGHGARDEN who might win this ‘trial’ with something to spare, especially when considering that Frankie’s mount is the only Gosden runner on today’s card.  It’s also worth noting that on the one occasion when John did not win the ‘Musidora’ in recent times, his raider (Woodland Aria) made amends next time out at odds of 5/4.  I invariably have plenty of respect of Peter Chapple-Hyam’s raiders when they take in races towards the top end of the events on the calendar whereby the chance of LUBINKA is respected, albeit I slightly prefer CEILIDHS DREAM as the main threat to the selection.  Give And Take is another decent filly, though one win from four assignments is not the best ratio with which to go to war in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eighteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which include seven winners.

 

4.35: Richard Fahey has landed this event three times in the last nine years and two of his three entries boast Placepot claims at double figures from my viewpoint, namely CLUBBABLE and ZAP.  Horses from the other end of the market have a terrific record however (see stats immediately below), whereby Kevin Ryan’s market leaders COMMANDER HEN and QUEEN’S SARGENT are respected alongside CAVATINA.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed via just ten contests thus far, though the other three market leaders missed out on Placepot positions.  The winners offer level stake favourite profits of 22 points which is something to behold!

York record of the two course winners in the field:

1/3—Zap (good to soft)

1/2—International Man (good to firm)

 

5.05: There is not a lot of money queuing up on the exchanges for any of the contenders if truth be told which gets the red lights flashing, though the likes of CHARMING KID and WORLD ORDER should land the Placepot dividend for us if we were live going into the final leg of our favourite bet.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fourteen favourites to date have missed out on toteplacepot positions (six winners). The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 14/1 (nine years ago).  The other twelve winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

5-2-1 (8 ran-soft)

3-9-6 (9 ran-good)

1 (4 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

1-5-2 (8 ran-good)

9-1-2 (10 ran-good)

5-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

5-4 (5 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 16th May 2018

NB I had some major broadband issues Monday/Tuesday, so please excuse the lack of meat on the bones for the Alejandro selection yesterday. I do have my hand-written notes about that selection, so I'll add them retrospectively later this morning, when I've caught up with other stuff!

Tuesday's Runner was...

4.10 Beverley : Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Rear division, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on towards finish)

We continue with Wednesday's...

9.05 Perth

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Creevytennant @ 5/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 5,  3 mile  hunters' chase on good to soft ground worth £2998 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, this old boy might well be 14 yrs old now, but I feel he's got at least another win or two in him before retirement and both race conditions and an apparent lack of quality competition lead me to believe that today will be a good one for him coming back from a break (he does go well fresh, thankfully).

As for his suitability for the task ahead, he had a very good season last year at the age of 13, making the frame 5 times from 6 attempts (worst result was a 4th place finish at the end of his season when he was probably just one race too far done), winning twice from the six races.

Those efforts took his career chase figures to 8 wins from 19 (42.1% SR) which is excellent at this lower level where the same horses seem to take turns at beating each other, he has won more than his fair share and during those 19 races, he is...

  • 7 from 16 going right handed
  • 7 from 12 when priced at 6/1 and shorter
  • 3 from 9 on good to soft
  • 7 from 8 at Classes 3 to 6
  • 4 from 7 in non-handicaps
  • 3 from 6 over the 3m trip
  • 4 from 5 here at Perth
  • 4 from 5 in Hunter Chases
  • 4 from 5 in fields of 8 to 11 runners
  • 2 from 3 under jockey Lilly Pinchin
  • and 2 from 2 over course and distance including a win in this very race last season by a mere 36 lengths!

His trainer Fergal O'Brien is having a decent month so far with his chasers who have won 2 and placed once from 5 in May, whilst more long-term his record here at Perth stands at 23 winners from 81 (28.4% SR) for 36.4pts (+44.9% ROI) profit, which are very healthy numbers indeed.

And of those 81 runners here...

  • those racing over 2m4f to 3m2.5f are 17/51 (33.3%) for 45.1pts (+88.4%)
  • chasers are 12/40 (30%) for 18.9pts (+47.3%)
  • those coming back from 3 months or more off the track are 4/11 (36.4%) for 15.5pts (+140.7%)
  • and hunter chasers are 2 from 2 for 3.75pts (+187.5%)

...all of which suggests...a 1pt win bet on Creevytennant @ 5/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Skybet and BetVictor at 7.15pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 9.05 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 27th April

SANDOWN – APRIL 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £114.80 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.2% units went through – 6/4* - 12/1 – 11/1

Race 2: 67.2% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 9/2 – 11/4*

Race 3: 16.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 12/1 (5/6)

Race 4: 31.8% of the remaining units went through – 9/2** - 10/1 10/1 (9/2**)

Race 5: 83.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/4** - 11/4** - 8/1

Race 6: 35.9% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* - 12/1 – 16/1

 

Firday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Kings Shield), 4 (Dream Warrior) & 6 (Motown Mick)

Leg 2 (2.25): 5 (Morando) & 2 (Crystal Ocean)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Sevenna Star) & 4 (Ispoloni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Addeybb), 2 (Here Comes When) & 3 (Khafoo Shememi

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Leg 5 (4.05): 8 (Diamond Dougal), 4 (Haddaf) & 2 (Spoof)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Highgarden) & 7 (Must Be Magic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: 'Team Hannon' have landed this prize twice in the last twelve years, one of only two represented stables to have won the contest on two occasions during the study period.  Richard saddles MOTOWN MICK who boasts win and place claims though this looks to be a tough heat, with KINGS SHIELD and DREAM WARRIOR having been declared by the powerful John Gosden and Charlie Appleby stables respectively.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Fifteen of the last twenty winners were returned at 17/2 or less.

 

2.25: Four and five-year-olds have won fourteen of the last sixteen renewals of this Group 3 Gordon Richard Stakes with the ‘juniors’ leading 8-6 during the period, though five-year-olds were only conspicuous by their absence three years ago.  With rain on the radar, it would not surprise me to see What About Carlo outrunning his 9/1 quote in places this morning, though CRYSTAL OCEAN and MORANDO make more appeal from a win perspective.  Fabricate is one of those horses that I cannot get right so in passing up Michael Bell’s raider today, you might start forming an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the land to ‘get on’!

Favourite factor: Three of the last ten favourites have obliged whilst the biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned at just 8/1.  That said, only eight of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have secured Placepot positions.

 

3.00: This Group 3 Classic Trial invariably produces an intriguing contest and this year's renewal is no exception. I referred to the stables of John Gosden and Charlie Appleby as ‘powerful’ in the opening race which goes without saying, though especially at this moment in time when their aggregate recent ratio stands at 42/96 (44% strike rate), figures which have produced level stake profits of 60 points in recent weeks!  Their respective raiders SEVENNA STAR and ISPOLINI cannot be opposed from my self-confessed ‘anorak’ viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Just four favourites have won via the last eighteen renewals, though bookmakers have not had things going all their own way.  Fourteen gold medallists during the period were returned at prices ranging between 1/2 and 11/2.

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eighteen contests, with ADDEYBB and KHAFOO SHEMENI representing the vintage this time around.  The pair is listed in order of preference at the time of writing but with relentless rain falling here in the west-country this morning (seemingly on its way through to Sandown later today), HERE COMES WHEN cannot be left out of calculations.  Loyal readers will recall that I napped Andrew Balding’s Danehill Dancer gelding is last year’s Sussex Stakes when scoring at 20/1 and there is every indication that Jim Crowley’s mount can go close again today having won at the first time of asking twelve months ago.  That said, ADDEYBB turned the Lincoln Handicap into a procession on soft ground a few weeks ago which only adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have scored during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/22 market leaders have secured win and place positions during the study period.  Seventeen of the last twenty gold medallists have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.

 

4.05: Twelve of the fifteen winners to date have carried weights of 9-2 or less though that is of no help now that the top weight has been withdrawn from the contest.  What should have been a fairly simple ‘dead eight’ race to assess now takes on a whole new meaning whereby I am offering three horses against the field, namely DIAMOND DOUGAL, HADDAF and SPOOF.  James Tate’s winners are invariable well fancied and money for HADDAF would ensure that the Dawn Approach gelding would be the call if a gun was pointed to my head to name the winner.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the eighteen market leaders reached the frame during the study period, statistics which include nine winners.

 

4.35:  The lads and lasses in the trade press office must have been ‘on the wallop’ when chalking up HIGHGARDEN as a potential 7/2 chance in this event yesterday.  I have made the point on numerous occasions that as an Odds Compiler myself, pricing up certain races is a difficult task but John Gosden’s Nathaniel filly was so impressive on soft ground at Newbury on her only start last year, that 6/4 would have been as far as I would have dared to ‘promote’ going into the contest.  MUST BE MAGIC is the logical danger, albeit after just one half decent effort thus far.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last eleven years, with ten gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 8/1 during the study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 26th April

BEVERLEY – APRIL 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £606.57 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 86.0% of the remaining units when through – 4/9* - 50/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 57.9% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 5/2** (5/2**)

Race 4: 25.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 18/1 – 14/1 (10/3)

Race 5: 40.5% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 5/1 – 8/1 (2 x 9/2**)

Race 6: 74.7% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 & 6/4*

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 6 (Acclaim The Nation), 14 (Crosse Fire) & 15 (Cameo Star)

Leg 2 (2.00): 6 (Jensue), 11 (Shumookhi) & 12 (Signora Cabello)

Leg 3 (2.35): 4 (Shazzab) & 2 (Exhort)

Leg 4 (3.10): 8 (Song Of Summer), 10 (Onefootinparadise) & 2 (Scenic River)

Leg 5 (3.45): 5 (Rita’s Man), 1 (Liquid Gold) & 8 (Bollin Ted)

Leg 6 (4.20): 8 (Inflexiaball) & 5 (Vigee Le Brun)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.30: The last nine winners have carried nine stones or more to victory, though the stat is not all that impressive as all bar one of the fifteen runners this time around qualify via the weight trend.  You’ll note that one runner has already defected whereby we ‘Potters’ are denied a fourth place, by way of a change! Upwards and onward by suggesting that ACCLAIM THE NATION, CROSSE FIRE and CAMEO STAR should get us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Grandad’s World.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites have prevailed, whilst eight of the last twelve market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  All twelve winners during the last fourteen years scored at a top price of 8/1.

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Record of the five course winners in the opening contest:

1/2—Jacob’s Pillow (good to firm)

1/2—Acclaim The Nation (good to soft)

1/5—Crosse Fire (good to firm)

1/1—Cameo Star (good to firm)

2/9—Pearl Noir (good & good to firm)

 

2.00: Of the horses I short listed overnight, only JENSUE has remained ‘in positive mode’ on the exchanges, with the likes of SHUMOOKHI and SIGNORA CABELLO proving easy to back.  It’s bad enough trying to fathom between two or more Richard Fahey horses in any race, but particularly so in an event for juveniles!  Either way, Piccothepack and Immokolee are not going to offer value for money anyway (particularly from a Placepot perspective) so I will stick to my original thoughts.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed at odds of 4/9 and Evens to date.

 

2.35: I talked about two runners in a race in the previous event for Richard Fahey as usually proving to be a tough ask and this race is no different, even though his horses are split at either end of the market at the time of writing.  To make matters worse, there was more interest is Richard’s outsider SHAZZAB than for EXHORT overnight, the potential favourite for the contest.  Either way, Richard is on a hat trick in the contest and with recent showers having gone against Alfa McGuire (2/2 at the track on fast ground), I’ll opt for Richard’s pair against the other four contenders in this ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include three winners at 13/8, 2/1 & 9/4***.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

2/2—Alfa McGuire (2 x good to fim)

 

3.10: Eleven of the fifteen toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones, statistics which include all five (7/1-13/2-4/1-4/1-2/1*) winners. Unfortunately just the one horse is eliminated from my Placepot thoughts via the weight trend, leaving SONG OF SUMMER (my each way call in the contest), ONEFOOTINPARADISE and SCENIC RIVER to carry my Placepot cash.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals thus far, statistics which include one (2/1) winner.

 

3.45: Four-year-olds come into the contest on a four-timer and the pick of this year’s quartet of vintage representatives appear to be RITA’S MAN, LIQUID GOLD and BOLLIN TED.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this ‘Rapid Lad’ handicap have changed whereby the contest as it stands now has just five renewals to consider, with three of the seven market leaders finishing in the frame (exact science) – no winners.  Rapid Lad (the race is named after the grand servant) won 12 races at Beverley between 1983 and 1989 during an unbeaten record at the venue.  Strange but true for such a prolific scorer, is the fact that Rapid Lad failed to win anywhere else, other than at Beverley.

Record of the five course winners in field:

1/2—Liquid Gold (good to firm)

1/2—Metronomic (good)

3/6—Bollin Ted (2 x good to firm)

1/2—Paddy’s Rock (good)

2/10—John Caesar (2 x soft)

 

4.20: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.  Call me cynical by all means but I find it ‘strange’ that all five course winners have been drawn against each other in the first division of this event, or is my comment ‘unworthy’?  The pick of the four-year-olds in the second heat could prove to be VIGEE LE BRUN according to the gospel of yours truly, though money for INFLEXIBALL overnight suggests that John Mackie’s raider could bring an end to the four-year-old domination of this event in recent years.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame (no winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 25th April

EPSOM – APRIL 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £52.90 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 43.1% units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 9/1 (4/1)

Race 2: 87.1% of the remaining units when through – 4/6* - 11/2 – 14/1

Race 3: 64.5% of the remaining units went through – 11/10* - 25/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 42.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 13/2 – 5/1 (4/1)

Race 5: 65.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* - 12/1 – 5/1

Race 6: 20.4% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 – 9/2 – 16/1 (7/2)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (Compas Scoobie), 8 (Just That Lord) & 1 (Desert Law)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Crossed Baton) & 3 (James Cook)

Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Royal Line), 8 (Golden Wolf) & 10 (Whinging Willy)

Leg 4 (3.55): 8 (Ajman King) & 9 (Contango)

Leg 5 (4.25): 5 (Mokhles) & 4 (Master Of Wine)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Christopher Wood), 1 (Akvavera) & 5 (Cuban Heel)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: The top ten runners in the handicap hold the edge over the bottom four in the list according to weight trends, with the last eleven winners having carried a minimum burden of 8-11.  If any rain got into the ground I could offer an each way shout for Pettochside with John Bridger having saddled a winner yesterday.  A winner of 6/10 races on soft ground, the going is likely to be a little too lively for Josephine Gordon’s mount however, whereby preference on this occasion is awarded to COMPAS SCOOBIE, JUST THAT LORD (runner up last year) and DESERT LAW.  That said, keep an eye on the weather at Epsom, just in case connections of Pettochside are walking around with smiles on their faces.

Favourite factor: Five of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (3/1 & 5/4) market leaders.  The last seven winners have scored at 25/1-20/1-12/1-7/1-13/2-9/2-4/1.  Nine of the last twenty horses to have claimed Placepot positions have been returned in double figures.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

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1/3—Desert Law (good to firm)

1/4—Pettochside (good)

1/1—Midnight Malibu (good)

 

2.45: This Epsom Derby trial has failed to produce a winner of the ‘Blue Riband’ since 1939 but the contest has offered up half decent gold medallists, with last year’s winner Cracksman being one of them.  John Gosden has saddled the last three winners of the contest and in CROSSED BATTON, John has another worthy favourite in the field.  For the record, John has saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect, with two of the other three inmates snaring silver medal positions.  More rain would probably aid and abet the chance of JAMES COOK who is a brother of Found who also hailed from the Aidan O’Brien yard. The same going comment is also relevant to MY LORD AND MASTER who could yet be anything.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the last twenty favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include ten winners.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Dee Ex Bee (heavy)

 

3.20: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals of the ’Great Met’, a race which used to command plenty of media space a few years ago.  Vintage representative GOLDEN WOLF is nothing if not consistent with the Richard Hughes raider boasting each way claims.  That said, John Gosden has (seemingly) caught the trend bug by declaring ROYAL LINE who appears to be the logical favourite in the contest, especially as John saddles just the two horses to today’s card.  WHINGING WILLIE has had his limitations exposed on decent ground in the past but if the forecast showers arrive on cue, Gary Moore’s raider could improve his record of already having snared two silver medals in this event to date.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eighteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Great Met’:

1/4—Fire Fighting (good to firm)

2/5—Lovelina (2 x good)

2/3—C’Est No Mour (2 x good)

1/14—Whinging Willie (heavy)

1/3—Berrahai (good)

 

3.50: Four-year-olds have won thirteen of the last nineteen renewals of this Class 2 (City & Suburban) event, whilst eight of the last eleven gold medallists have carried weights of 8-13 more.  With four-year-olds on a five timer on this occasion, more trainers appear to have taken notice of the trend than is usually the case and the pick of the seven relevant entries will hopefully prove to be AJMAN KING and CONTANGO.  The latter named Andrew Balding representative has contested all five assignments to date with ‘soft’ having featured in the ground description thus far, whereby connections will be hoping that the disappointing weather forecast is accurate.  Either way though, AJMAN KING might take the beating with Roger Varian seemingly having found a good opportunity for his progressive Lope De Vega colt.  Dubai Horizon is the reserve nomination ahead of course winner Thundering Home.

Favourite factor: 13/26 market leaders of late have finished in the frame, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the three course winners in the ‘City & Surburban’:

1/2—Thundering Blue (good to soft)

1/4—Emenem (good)

1/1—Ajman King (heavy)

 

4.25: The market will no doubt offer the best advice here which puts you in the ‘box seat’ over yours truly.  There is not much movement on the exchanges at the time of writing, though MOKHLES is unlikely to be offered up at 9/2 according to the positive queue.  MASTER OF WINE is marginally preferred to KING OF THE SAND in receipt of three pounds relating to the home brigade.

Favourite factor: This is a new event on the Epsom card.

 

5.00: Seven of the last eleven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and with only 5/11 qualifying via the trend (fairly weak though it is), I’m inclined to look towards the top of the handicap for the winner.  The trio I’m homing in on as dawn breaks over Bristol consists of CHRISTOPHER WOOD, AKVAVERA and CUBAN HILL.

Favourite factor: Six of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame (five winners) in the Placepot finale thus far.

Record of the course winner on the Placepot finale:

1/1—Deadly Accurate (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 28th September

NEWMARKET – SEPTEMBER 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,462.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Ghaiyyath) & 17 (Tiffin Top)

Leg 2 (2.35): 3 (Rastrelli), 4 (Maksab) & 5 (Rhosneigr)

Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (Summer Chorus), 6 (First Dance) & 5 (Sayem)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Albishr), 2 (Elayqam) & 3 (Fajjaj)

Leg 5 (4.20): 10 (UAE King) & 8 (Face The Facts)

Leg 6 (4.55): 8 (Roar), 2 (Jaameh) & 3 (Saunter)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: The 7/4 trade press quote about GHAIYYATH looks generous in the extreme this morning with layers offering a top price of 5/4 at the time of writing.  If the two prices do not seem a world apart to the untrained eye, the differential is similar to a horse being backed from 9/1 into 9/2.  With relevant trainer Charlie Appleby having secured a 12/1 double on the opening fixture of this three day meeting last year, the majority of punters will be latching onto his Dubawi colt I’ll wager.  There was plenty to like about his third placed debut effort, with connections probably having most to fear from TIFFIN TOP on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured Placepot positions via eight renewals during the last decade.

 

2.25: MAKSAB and RHOSNEIGR are expected to outrun their odds if the overnight markets are anything to go by, with both horses attracting money against the more likely winner RASTRELLI from my viewpoint.  That said, RASTRELLI has been firm enough at around the 7/2 mark, with the recent (good to soft) Brighton winner boasting a decent chance of completing a quick double on the card for trainer Charlie Appleby.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) to date.

 

3.10: Andrew Balding’s Exceed And Excel filly SUMMER CHORUS rightly heads the market having run well in defeat in her last two races, notwithstanding the fact that she is the only course winner in the field having scored under today’s projected conditions over the Rowley Mile.  I oppose one of Andrew’s market leaders in the Placepot finale but will not desert this filly who has proved her consistency time and time again by finishing ‘in the three’ eight times via twelve turf assignments this far.  Be on the lookout for money for FIRST DANCE, as James Tate’s runners do not disappoint too often when backed to win their respective events.  SAYEM completes my trio against the remaining five contenders in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket card.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/6—Summer Chorus (good to firm)

 

3.55: It might take a brave soul to plunge in on the projected market leader ELARQAM, given that trainer Mark Johnston ‘boasts’ a ratio of just 1/26 on the Rowley Mile this season.  That said, Mark’s Frankel colt impressed when winning on debut, confirming the promise back at the ranch having been backed down to 10/11 to score on his first day at school.  Mark might have (ideally) liked a shower or two to fall on the heath this morning given that ELARQAM was scoring under yielding conditions at York, though rain is only conspicuous by its absence on the radar at the time of writing.  ALBISHR and FAJJAJ will ensure that the favourite does not have everything going his way at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Five of the last seven market leaders have finished in frame, statistics which include two (2/1 & 6/5) winners.

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4.20: It’s difficult to envisage UAE KING finishing out of the frame, especially when taking Roger Varian’s positive stats at Newmarket this season into account.  Two mile races never prize money out of my wallet however, with this race being no exception.  FACE THE FACTS is taken as the main danger ahead of WINNING STORY.

Favourite factor: The last five market leaders have all finished in the money, stats which include three winners of late.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Arch Villain (good)

1/1—Winning Streak (good to soft)

 

4.55: I’m inclined to take on the favourite (Torcello) here with three each way types which could produce an exciting finish from a Placepot perspective this afternoon.  If we can successfully omit Andrew Balding’s project market leader out of the mix, it could rubber stamp an impressive return to the one pound unit stake regarding our favourite wager’. I’m pinning my hopes on ROAR, JAAMEH and course winner SAUNTER, though the trio are not (necessarily) listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Ooty Hill (soft)

1/2—Saunter (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Thursday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Andrew Balding (2/13 +1)

5—Richard Hannon (4/34 – loss of 9 points)

4—Charlie Appleby (7/21 +11)

4—Ed Dunlop (0/6)

4—Sir Michael Stoute (2/13 – slight profit)

3—James Fanshawe (0/5)

3—Amanda Perrett (1/2 +2)

3—Stuart Williams (0/5)

2—Michael Appleby (0/8)

2—Mick Channon (1/5 +2)

2—Clive Cox (0/4)

2—Charlie Fellowes (0/6)

2—John Gosden (7/28 +21)

2—Mark Johnston (1/26 – loss of 22 points)

2—Hughie Morrison (2/4 +2)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/13)

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (3/14 +11)

2—Roger Varian (4/10 +4)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

74 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Pontefract: £626.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Perth: £33.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £159.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 27th September

GOODWOOD - SEPTEMBER 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £30.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 10 (Setting Sail) & 6 (Knightly Spirit)

Leg 2 (2.40): 1 (Billesdon Brook) & 8 (Savaanah)

Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Me Too Nagasaki), 4 (Mr Red Clubs) & 5 (Turnpike Trip)

Leg 4 (3.45): 7 (Promising Run), 8 (Billesdon Bess) & 6 (Monarchs Glen)

Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (Graceland), 5 (Notice) & 6 (St Mary’s)

Leg 6 (4.50): 6 (Island Cloud), 4 (Abiento) & 5 (Ocean Temptress)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: There are a few decent looking favourites at this meeting, the first of which is SETTING SAIL who looks to be the horse to be with on the evidence of his excellent Leicester debut effort when this step up in trip looked the call on face value.  Charlie Appleby saddled the winner of this event last year and his Dubawi colt has a Racing Post Trophy entry this term, whilst the Irish 2000 Guineas has been (faintly) pencilled in for next season already.  KNIGHTLY SPIRIT appears to a worthy opponent but that looks to be where the race ends in terms of a potential winner.

Favourite factor: Ten of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.

 

2.40: Heavy investments always have that touch of danger here at Goodwood in terms of horses handling the track and on soft ground, plenty of racegoers will keep their powder dry in such an uncompetitive looking contest.  Brave souls will plunge into BILLESDON BROOK however, especially as Richard Hannon’s February foal is already a dual course and distance winner, notwithstanding a victory having been posted under soft conditions on one of those occasions.  Just as Roger Varian potentially offered the only danger in the first event on that card, Roger will have expectations of another silver medal (at least) having declared his Olden Times filly SAVAANAH, the sire having won on his second start on soft ground which makes for interesting reading.

Favourite factor: This Conditions event is a new race on the Goodwood card.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/3—Billesdon Brook (good & soft)

 

3.10: But for a break of three and a half months from the track and taking a step up on trip, ME TOO NEGASAKI would look an outstanding bet for a number of reasons from my viewpoint.  That said, I still believe that Jeremy Noseda’s Iffraaj colt will win, with Jeremy having dominated this corresponding meeting in recent years, his five winners all having been well backed.  James Doyle rides the heavy ground winner, looking for his third winner for the trainer via just seven mounts this term. Jeremy held two entries at the meeting at the weekend though now, ME TOO NAGASAKI is his only runner. Red Clubs has long since been one of my favourite (underrated) sires and his death as a seven-year-old came as an almighty shock.  His son MR RED CLUBS won his only race to date here at Goodwood, whilst he handles cut well enough to suggest that his quote of 16/1 also attracts the eye this morning.  Henry Candy’s course stats this year read well (see the full list towards the foot of the column), whereby TURNPIKE TRIP is marginally preferred to Road To Dubai in completing my trio against the rest of the field.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Goodwood programme.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

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1/3—Mr Red Clubs (good)

2/4—Road To Dubai (good firm & good to soft)

 

3.45: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last fifteen renewals (including six of the last ten) of this Listed event without being represented every year.  Saeed Bin Suroor saddled the only vintage representative (PROMISING RUN) in the field this time around, having secured three of the last seven renewals whilst additionally snaring a silver medal with a 16/1 chance during the period.  ‘Bess’ is another Billesdon raider with a chance on the card and hailing from Manduro stock on the damns side, it came as no surprise when she started winning races for fun over this trip.  MONARCHS GLEN was singled out as a horse to watch by trainer John Gosden before his career had started and though John’s Frankel gelding has not won as many races to date as connections would have liked, his best form would take him close in this grade/company I’ll wager.  For the record, MONARCHS GLEN was ‘short headed’ in the opening race on this corresponding card twelvemonths ago.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last seventeen favourites have prevailed, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last eighteen years was returned at just 10/1 (six years ago).

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/3—What About Carlo (good)

1/3—Monarchs Glen (god)

1/1—Billesdon Bess (soft)

 

4.20: GRACELAND lost out by the minimum margin in this event last year and with each way (bet to nothing) odds of 5/1 available with a few leading firms at the time of writing (Ladbrokes, Hills & Coral), there are worse win and place calls on the card.  That said, two other each way types catch the eye, namely NOTICE and ST MARY’S in a fascination second renewal.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite missed out on a Placepot position by finishing third in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

 

4.50: Eight of the ten winners during the study period have carried a maximum burden of 9-1, statistics which bring in the likes of course winner ISLAND CLOUD, ABIENTO and OCEAN TEMPTRESS into the equation.  For the record the trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last ten renewals though be warned, because two of the last four gold medallists have scored at 33/1 & 20/1.  Eight of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Island Cloud (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Goodwood card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Andrew Balding (4/37 – loss of 2 points)

3—Richard Hannon (5/56 – loss of 19 points)

3—Mark Johnston (6/46 +7)

2—Henry Candy (5/15 +10)

2—Richard Hughes (2/22 – loss of 11 points)

2—Alan King (2/7 – slight profit)

2—John Mackie (No previous runners here this season)

2—John Ryan (0/5)

2—David Simcock (6/29 +41)

2—Roger Varian (3/19 +1)

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

60 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Redcar: £48.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Perth: £1,055.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £5.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 11th September

BRIGHTON - SEPTEMBER 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £168.60 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unoplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (2.25): 6 (Flowing Clarets), 2 (Storm Cry) & 4 (Monteamiata)

Leg 2 (2.55): 4 (Rastrelli) & 5 (Sarstedt)

Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Black Caesar), 4 (King Of Swing) & 7 (East Coast Lady)

Leg 4 (3.55): 1 (Delannoy), 6 (Ablaze) & 7 (African Quest)

Leg 5 (4.25): 4 (Av A Word) & 3 (Haulani)

Leg 6 (4.55): 11 (Ronni Layne), 8 (Latest Quest) & 4 (Luxford)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.25: The going is officially soft overnight, though it’s worth noting that it is pouring down here in Bristol in the middle of the night, whilst 50mph winds accompany the wet stuff so it all depends on what transpires on the south coast over the next few hours I guess.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by informing that four-year-olds have won three of the six contests to date whilst securing six of the 10 available toteplacepot positions thus far (vintage was not represented last year).  Only John Bridger appears to have been live to the stat having declared FLOWING CLARETS down at the bottom of the handicap.  The two three-year-olds in the field represent the biggest threat from my viewpoint, namely STORM CRY and MONTEAMIATA.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three (8/11-6/4-11/4**) winners.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

1/7—One Big Surprise (good to firm)

4/23—Whitecrest (2 x good – good to firm – good to soft)

 

2.25: Have you ever had the feeling that ‘new rules’ are invented for the benefit of bookmakers and not punters?  Look at the ‘favourite stats’ below if you want to take issue with that comment.  Freedom of speech allowed here guys, freedom of speech.  Only three of the six runners can be taken seriously though it looks as though Bet365 have accommodated a few quid at 50’s about Swift Fox because in a race like this, that’s about as much as the bookmakers want to lay.  On a potentially windy day on uncertain ground at the time of writing, I’m going to side with the pair with a couple of races under their respective belts already, namely RASTRELLI and SARSTEDT though of course, Mark Johnston’s newcomer Illusional would not have to be out of the ordinary to make a complete fool of me.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card via its novice status.  That said, the distance and class of the race has not changed, whereby I am listing the following stats for the last time if you believe they are relevant (like yours truly) this afternoon.  All eight favourites have finished in the money thus far via seven renewals, one market leader having been withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed.  Five (8/15-8/11-5/4-11/8-2/1) favourites have obliged to date but note that market leaders at odds of 1/3 & 8/11 have been beaten from a win perspective thus far. Two gold medallists were returned at 40/1 and 25/1.

 

3.25: Five-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals (when represented) but William Stone is the only trainer to have smelt the coffee in recent days, having declared the lone vintage representative EAST COAST LADY.  I fully appreciate that the Kodiac mare has a lot on her plate here, though 9/1 was a very acceptable price about the five-year-old winner (Jackblack) at Fontwell yesterday (as advised) who was one of only two relevant entries, vintage representatives having won the previous seven renewals of the race.  Make that eight now!  I will concede that more likely winners include recent scorers BLACK CAESAR and KING OF SWING but at 28/1, East Coast Lady is surely worth a florin each way. Where else can you read this 'informed nonsense'?

Favourite factor: Only two of the ten favourites (via eight renewals) have reached the (exact science) frame to date (no winners).

Record of course winners in the third event on the card:

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4/14—Black Caesar (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

4/16—Good Luck Charm (2 x good to firm – good – firm)

1/5—Sarangoo (good to soft)

1/1—El Torito (good to firm)

3/12—Live Dangerously (2 x good to soft & good)

 

3.55: All seven winners carried a minimum weight of 8-13, as have 15 of the 18 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.  Six of the seven declarations qualify for the overnight short list, the pick of which could include DELANNOY and BROUGHTONS ADMIRAL.  Neil Mulholland saddled a winner under the other code down the road at Fontwell yesterday and though searching for his first winner at Brighton at the seventh attempt, Neil will have some confidence going into the contest.  Below the trend barrier, I note that there has been overnight interest in AFRICAN QUEST which might have something to do with a hike up in trip for Gary Moore’s filly.  Ablaze is another to take into consideration in what looks to be a trappy event.

Favourite factor: Four of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame following seven renewals, statistics which include one (9/4) winner.  Search parties are still out looking for the beaten 4/7 favourite who missed out on a Placepot position two years ago.

 

4.25: All five winners have carried a minimum of nine stones at odds of 10/1-7/1-7/1-4/1-2/5*.  Unfortunately (always looking for an edge) five of the six runners qualify on this occasion, with the unbeaten Brighton pair AV A WORD and HAULANI arguably offering value for money here in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  Philip Hide (HAULANI) has saddled more winners on the level this season (sixteen in total) than the trainer managed during the last three seasons collectively added to the fact that 44% of those gold medallists were saddled here at Brighton in 2017.  The 3/3 record of Av A Word is obviously factor to take into consideration, especially of the wet stuff swerves the south downs.

Favourite factor: Only two of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date, with last year’s 2/5 market leader having prevailed.

Record of course winners in the fifth race:

1/1--Haulani (good to soft)

3/3—Av A Word (2 x good to firm & good)

 

4.55: Horses carrying 8-13 or less have claimed all five renewals of the Placepot finale to date, statistics which bring in the likes of RONNI LAYNE and LATEST QUEST (via a claiming pilot) into the overnight mix.  9/1 is still available regarding RONNIE LAYNE who comes to the gig bang on the 8-13 mark with Conrad Allen having saddled a winner the other day at Wolverhampton.  I’ve a notion that Paddy Power’s quote might not last too long this morning, win, lose or draw.  LUXFORD is the potential villain of the peace from my viewpoint, with John Best having saddled two of his last five runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Two of the seven favourites have finished in the frame in the toteplacepot finale via five renewals, whilst we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Brighton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Gary Moore (7/34 +35)

3—John Bridger (2/26 – loss of 15 points)

3—John Jenkins (0/2)

3—Mark Johnston (6/15 +4)

2—Jim Boyle (4/23 +39)

2—Richard Hannon (7/25 +19)

2—Philip Hide (7/23 - +11)

2—Richard Hughes (6/34 - loss of 3 points)

2—Sylvester Kirk (3/19 – level profit/loss on the season)

+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newton Abbot: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

Perth: £1,288.70 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced