Racing Insights, Friday 28/04/23 geegeez.co.uk

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded no qualifiers at all so it's a good job that this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

2.05 Perth
3.00 Sandown
4.00 Doncaster
5.20 Chepstow
5.30 Perth
7.45 Punchestown

...from which I have chosen the first on the list, the Highland National. It's the 2.05 Perth, a 13-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase featuring 23 fences spread over 3m6½f on good to soft ground and here's how they line up...

As you can see, top-weight Court Master was due to run for the first time in ten months (during which he'd had a wind op) since being pulled up in a Listed race at Uttoxeter, but has been withdrawn from this contest, leaving us the baker's dozen competitors. He'll probably run in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday and this means that the entire field for this Perth race have all ran in the last twelve weeks with new top-weight Innisfree Lad seen as recently as nine days ago.

Silver In Disguise is our sole LTO winner, having scored over 3m½f at Wetherby earlier this month, but a few of his rivals have also won recently. Nearly Perfect is 3 from 7, Geryville is a regular placer, Fairlawn Flyer seems to win or be pulled up with four wins and 2 x P in his last six, whilst Concetto is 2 from 3, Destiny Is All is 3 from 7 and Return Fire is 2 from 6 as all of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings!

Planned Paradise, If Not For Dylan and Return Fire both now drop down from Class 2, but Fairlawn Flyer, Just Don't Know, Silver In Disguise (also up 5lbs) and Gentleman De Mai all step up a level from Class 4. Top-weight Innisfree Lad is the oldest here at 11, some 4yrs older and carrying 18lbs more than bottom-weight and joint youngest at 7, Return Fire.

None of this field have won over this trip, but Silver In Disguise won over 3m7f at Chepstow thirteen months ago. Other than that, Destiny In All's win over 3m3f at Ayr a year ago is the longest win of this field so far, although Fairlawn Flyer and If Not For Dylan have both won here at Perth before, albeit over at 3m½f hurdle and a 3m chase respectively.

The card tells us that couple of these are in first-time headgear, as Geryville is tongue-tied and Gentleman De Mai is visored, whilst Instant Expert says we have seven good to soft chase winners on display and half a dozen Class 3 chase winners, whilst Innisfree Lad is the only one to have scored at Class 2...

Innisfree Lad's record in this grade (1/13) is a worry, as is his 0 from 5 at 3m6f and beyond, but he is down to a reasonable mark, just a pound higher than his last win. Nearly Perfect has done well at Class 3 and is 5lbs below his last win but all his best form is on soft ground. Geryville has won at both going and class but might be a little high in the weights.

Silver In Disguise poses a dilemma, as he stays the trip, but has a poor record at this level, as does If Not For Dylan. As can often be the case, the ones to consider might well be those without much relevant experience as there is a school of thought that backing horses trying something new is better than backing those that have failed repeatedly under set conditions. It's a thought, if nothing else! Perhaps, the place stats will open a door or two?

Here, you would expect to see plenty of green and regular placer Geryville catches the eye. He'll like the ground and has done well at this grade; Silver In Disguise and If Not For Dylan have struggled at Class 3, though. Destiny Is All has perfect percentage figures, as do Concetto and Gentleman de Mai off admittedly fewer runs.

And if we were to focus purely on green and amber stat percentages from the place form...

...then the five (because some bookies will pay five places here) that would interest me most from that would be (in card order) Innisfree Lad, Geryville, Concetto, If Not For Dylan and Destiny Is All. That said, getting this trip here over so many fences on good to soft ground isn't easy and sadly, we don't have enough relevant pace data to help us out, as there aren't many similar races to fall back on as shown here...

Summary

In such a competitive looking race with many runners in decent nick and a lack of relevant pace data, I'm going to fall back onto the place stats from earlier and stick with my five-runner shortlist of Innisfree Lad, Geryville, Concetto, If Not For Dylan and Destiny Is All. I feel that all of them stand a great chance of making the frame and I'll be checking the market to see of any are worth an E/W punt.

As for the winner, I think it's likely to be between Destiny Is All and Concetto and I really wouldn't like to try and split them if I'm honest and I'm not really surprised that they're at the top end of the market. My shortlist are currently (6.05pm) best priced at Innisfree Lad (14/1 4 places & 12/1 5 places), Geryville (8/1 both), Concetto (13/2 & 11/2), If Not For Dylan (20/1 & 16/1) and Destiny Is All (13/2 & 6/1).

Destiny Is All and Concetto are a little short for my liking as E/W bets, but i wouldn't try to deter you from backing any or all of the other three.

Membership Login

Summary

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

You might also like