Tag Archive for: Ribblesdale Stakes

Royal Ascot 2026: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips

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It's Gold Cup day, or Ladies' Day - or even Thursday, or Day 3. The hump day of Royal Ascot features the showcase event, the Gold Cup, a Group 1 run over two and a half miles. There is, of course, a further trio of top class shermozzles either side of that blockbuster, so let's get to it...

 

Notes: you can also check out our full Royal Ascot Friday trends page here.

 

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Going: Good to Firm

Goingstick:
Stands side: 8.8
Centre: 8.7
Far side: 8.7
Round: 7.5

Soil Moisture: 41%, readings taken on Thursday at 8.30am.

Rails:
The rail on the round course is now at full width everywhere. Providing fresh ground today from 9f out to the Home straight

Stalls:
Straight Course: Centre

Round Course: Inside

 

2.30 THE CHESHAM STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

In a change to the running order, the Chesham appears as the first race of the Ladies' Day card, a trappy seven-furlong juvenile heat for Listed honours.

The Chesham cheat code appears to be thus: either a once-raced Aidan that got beat, or one of the top three unbeaten-in-one horses in the market. That would have got you nine of the last 11 winners, one of the other pair being the unbackable Holloway Boy on debut and the other the dual winner Pinatubo. Those winners included 12/1 Snellen and 14/1 Suits You.

Taking that approach aligns quite well with the market, the nominated APO'B runner Aix La Chapelle heading the field. He was easy enough to back when sent off 4/1 on his debut (7f, good to yielding) a fortnight ago, and had plenty to do a quarter mile from home. But the further they went the more inevitable was the son of Justify's victory, eventually pulling away by a widening length and a half. He made up a good five lengths in those final two furlongs and looks the obvious one to beat granted normal improvement.

Richard Hannon sends Aperoll with a similar profile to the favourite. She, too, is a once raced winner from about a fortnight ago, though she was more handily placed when taking a Newbury novice over six and a half furlongs. A daughter of Ghaiyyath, she's a January foal and as such is entitled to a precocity edge on most of her rivals. Plenty of fillies have won the Chesham in recent times, including Bedtime Story (2024) and Snellen (2023) as well as September (2017).

Karl Burke won this race in 2022 with the unraced Holloway Boy - some feat - and he's since further advertised himself as one of the top trainers in the country, particularly when it comes to juveniles. He's represented by Revels, easy three length winner of a Redcar maiden a month ago on his sole start. The second has yet to run again but the third won by almost five lengths on his next outing. This son of Lope De Vega is, unsurprisingly perhaps, owned by a member of the Mars family - Ms L Mars, in fact - and she's another that can obviously step forward. [Proud of myself for resisting all kinds of sugar/confectionery puns there].

Time For The Moon shouted his credentials when blitzing a field of Musselburgh novices by 7½ lengths - yikes. However, that was on his second start so he's less scope to improve than the once raced brigade, and - respectfully - it was Musselburgh and the time was good but not great. Moreover, he's gone from the front in his two races so far, with only last year's winner, Humidity, managing to make all in the past decade. It's not easy to do. Still, he has credentials.

Sea Venture has had the sole start, bolting up by three lengths in a Haydock fillies' maiden four weeks, and she is another unexposed runner. The form awaits a boost, though, with none of the five runners since making the frame; that includes the second and fourth, both beaten more than five lengths on their next starts.

Another son of Justify, Nola Soul, travels across for trainer John Stack. He beat a couple of Aidan's as well as a horse called Chesham, presumably fancied at some point to wind up here; closest to him that day, however, was King Of Cloughan which runs in the Windsor Castle on Wednesday: that clearly will be a line of the merit of the form, with the third-placed horse already having won since.

The most expensive horse in the field is an Amo-owned Charlie Johnston-trained Frankel colt called Pikachu. Named after the cute little pokemon, he was second on debut at Thirsk, behind the more experienced Alfred Wallace - another headed for Wednesday's Windsor Castle - and should improve plenty for that. He's a place player at least.

 

Suggestion: Aidan won this in 2024, 2021, 2020, 2017 and 2016; but he didn't win in three of the past four years. Aix La Chapelle has a very good chance and I think I'll save on him; but I'm going to have a point apiece on a couple at prices, Aperoll and Revels. Not because I'm thirsty and hungry, you understand, but rather because both bring impressive unbeaten-in-one form to the party and look definite value at around 10/1.

 

Tix Pointers: Keep it Aidan on A, and unbeaten winners of one on B.

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3.05 THE KING GEORGE V STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Rory Delargy

The most interesting angle into this 1½m handicap is the effect of the draw. Logically, on a round course, the uneducated view (including among jockeys and trainers who should know better) is that being drawn close to the inside is a positive, and being drawn very wide is a negative. The truth is very different, as results of races over course and distance, and particularly the King George V, show. Here are the results since 2021 based on stall number:

2021: 17-11-21-10
2022: 8-3-12-5
2023: 21-8-16-22
2024: 18-19-8-13
2025: 20-21-3-2

As you can see, a very wide draw is no disadvantage (such results are borne out on a wider scale) and while those drawn low can and do get involved, they are the ones who tend to require a bit of luck in the run. When the field fans out in the straight, those who come widest tend to end up on the quicker ground and when races are run at a strong gallop as they usually are, those coming late and wide are at an advantage. 2022 was a year where the pace slackened mid-race, favouring those who were well positioned at that point, but it’s a rarity for pace to drop in that way with plenty usually keen to press on.

The pace map suggests that low-drawn horses should dominate the early stages but because those who want to lead are drawn close together, there must also be a decent chance that they get involved in a battle for primacy that produces some overly strong early fractions. Those on the front end can enhance their chances by dapping on the brakes at that point as a relentless gallop will play to the hold-up horses, but predicting mid-race tactics is almost impossible in advance and I’m relying on the pace map which predicts the gallop will be strong.

 

 

A strong pace isn’t just an indicator of where in the field the winner might emerge, but confirms that whatever horse wins will have had to show stamina for the trip; on that basis, I’d be keen to exclude those who appear best at up to 1¼m.  A key trial for this is the London Gold Cup at Newbury, which this year saw Lost Boys beat Sahara King and Tierra Del Toro. That was over 1¼m and I thought Tierra Del Toro was the one of the principals who would most benefit from the extra quarter mile here, as he took time to hit top gear before staying on best of all in the closing stages. He was without a prep run for that valuable contest, so I expect him to improve a little more for that first outing of the season, and while I’d prefer him to be drawn wider, stall 10 looks a good spot to stalk the leaders while keeping out of trouble. Ralph Beckett’s Lope de Vega gelding is untried at the trip and his half-brother Alcaraz has won only at 1¼m, but their dam is a full-sister to dual Arc winner Treve, which gives plenty of confidence that he will relish 1½m.

Cannes is one who looks sure to benefit from a test of stamina having landed a decent maiden over the trip at Leopardstown last month. That form looked good at the time and has been franked by wins for the third and fourth placed horses since (second yet to race again), while Cannes is likely to do better still as his stamina is drawn out in a well-run race, his dam being a half-sister to Mojo Star, who was runner-up in the Derby, St Leger and the Gold Cup here. I don’t think the Leopardstown contest got to the bottom of Cannes and he remains completely unexposed. Joseph O’Brien had his handicap record at Royal Ascot questioned at the start of the week, but saddling the 1-2 in the Ascot Stakes answered such criticism in resounding fashion. Stall 21 is a cracking position based on recent results of this race and he should have the race run to suit.

 

Suggestion:  1pt e/w Tierra del Toro @ 8/1 (Bet365, Hills – 5 places); 1pt e/w Cannes @ 11/1 (general – 5 places)

 

Tix Pointers: High draws are where it's been at. One day it won't go that way, but usually that's the counter-intuitive route in Royal Ascot handicaps over 1m4f.

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3.40 THE RIBBLESDALE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by David Massey

John & Thady Gosden’s Legacy Link seemingly holds all the aces here. Her dam is Frankel’s full sister, and this filly is already building a little legacy (pardon the wordplay) of her own, still looking far from the finished project when winning the Musidora at York, outbattling the smoother-travelling Felicitas; and then her second in the Oaks to Thundering On, where she saw out the mile and a half well enough, another step forward.

She is, on form, the one to beat. But look at the prices of the last five winners; 7-1, 12-1, 13-2, 11-4, 18-1. Not a favourite in sight, and we’ve seen the likes of Kalpana, Al Asifah and Noon Star, good fillies all, turned over after previous good runs in Musidoras, Pretty Pollys and Oaks's. Yes, it’s been a bit of a favourites' graveyard recently, and that gives you hope if you’re taking her on.

Gilded Prize has been made second favourite by the books but it’s hard to see what that's based on. Yes, she was impressive enough when winning a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud back in April; but that form would need improving on, and she looked a bit on the slow side when easily brushed aside at Longchamp last time. This step up in trip might help, but all in all she looks short enough.

Earth Shot is improving for William Haggas and her head second to Inis Mor in the Height Of Fashion at Goodwood looks better after the winner finished third in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly last weekend, a very good run. On the bare form she has a lot to find, but she’s going the right way and her pedigree offers plenty of hope she’ll improve again for moving up in trip, the dam a winner at a mile and three-quarters. I like her profile and she is on my shortlist.

Aidan O’Brien has won this for the last three years with lesser fancied fillies, and Composing fits the bill as far as that profile is concerned. She’s getting a pair of blinkers to try and get her back on track, and that did the trick for Port Fairy a couple of years ago when O’Brien equipped her with a first-time visor. Impressive when rattling off a hat-trick last summer, including in G2 and G3 company, she appears to have lost her way this year; but her last of six at Longchamp last time wasn’t a bad effort strictly on the figures, and given she’s looked a bit short on gears this mile and a half could help. I can’t quite bring myself to put the red pen through her, given her trainer's recent record in the race. I think she might keep drifting and if there’s some 20-1 around on the day, I can see myself having a small win-only bet.

I think, if there’s going to be an upset, then Ralph Beckett’s Lady Roisia might be the one to supply it. If there’s one horse that’s almost cast-iron to be guaranteed to appreciate a step up to twelve furlongs then it’s her: the dam was Oaks winner Talent (also trained by Beckett) and there’s stamina on the sire’s side, too. Badly in need of her first run of the season at Newbury when third to Esna, she’ll strip a lot fitter for that here and I liked her physically when she won at Nottingham at the back end of last year. In a race that keeps throwing up little surprises, let’s hope she’s the latest in that line; at 20-1, I make her the each-way bet here.

Suggestion: Try Lady Roisia each way at 20/1

 

Tix Pointers: Aidan and Team Gosden have won ten of the last dozen renewals. They were unplaced in the other two though, so maybe leave a trailing leg?

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4.15 THE GOLD CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

The Gold Cup is historically the centrepiece of the entire Royal Ascot meeting, and chronologically precisely that fulcrum, with 17 races before and the same number after. It might be that races like the St James's Palace Stakes have become a little more fashionable with speed admired over resolve these days, but this is always a compelling watch and frequently the province of the returning champ - who doesn't love that?

This century has given us the brilliant four-time winner Yeats, triple scorer Stradivarius, and dual champs Royal Rebel and Kyprios. Where better to begin, then, than with the defending Gold Cup hero Trawlerman? It's fair to say that I was a little unkind to him in the aftermath of last year's Gold Cup, opining that a seven-year-old couldn't be improving and that he'd been given a very soft time of it on the front end that day.

While there was some truth in my brickbats, Trawlerman went unbeaten in two further races last term, the G2 Lonsdale Cup and the G1 Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. A feature of his wins has been a mid-race injection of pace and then even finishing fractions: in plain English, he gets his rivals out of their comfort zone early and then keeps them uncomfortable.

It's probably fair to say that it was far from a vintage renewal last year, and indeed that the staying crop was below par as a whole. That counts against the dependable but (relatively) limited Sweet William, stablemate of Trawlerman, who possibly doesn't quite stay this far either. He did win the Doncaster Cup over 2m2f and kicked off 2026 with a win in the Sagaro here over two miles. A very likeable chap, he's not on my mind for this.

Of the other golden oldies, Dubai Future stayed on into a never dangerous 3rd a year ago and he's 50/1; he will presumably again be ridden to pick up pieces. And Al Nayyir has been consistent, mainly in defeat and usually at slightly below top class.

Joseph O'Brien showed his talents with stayers on the flat on Tuesday when saddling a 1-2 over the course and distance in the Ascot Stakes, so his Al Riffa is worth a second glance. Now six, he was a Group 1 winner in Germany in 2024, and he doubled his top tier tally when bagging last year's Irish St Leger over 1m6f. Since then, he's been racking up the Avios (and almost £300,000 in prizemoney), with good runs in defeat in Australia, Hong Kong, Dubai and France. This will be a half mile trip increase and he's not certain to stay, but he does bring a level of form few of his rivals can boast.

It's been quite the journey for Caballo De Mar, beaten 15 lengths in a novice stakes this week two years ago - to be fair, the winner was Ombudsman! - and a seven-race maiden before breaking his duck, off 64, in an Ayr handicap in September 2024. What fun connections have had since, as this unfashionably bred and cheaply bought son of Phoenix Of Spain has totted up nine wins via that starter at Ayr, then Southwell four times on the bounce (!), Haydock, Dortmund and Longchamp twice - both Group 1's. Additionally, he ran second in the Chester Cup, the Copper Horse Stakes here last year, the Dubai Gold Cup and in Sweet William's Sagaro. Wow. I do have a niggle that some of those overseas wins were a little below the level needed here, and I suspect Al Riffa will reverse the French form from last time if he sees out the extra yardage.

The other new kids on the block and, aged four with a bit more improvement potentially, are Rahiebb and Scandinavia. Rahiebb is trained by Roger Varian and, after a three-year-old season of knocking on the door - most notably when a neck second to Scandinavia in the St Leger - the more mature four-year-old model was an unequivocal winner of the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup in mid-May. That was 1m6f and he'll go almost a full Wokingham further here, which is the major question mark. His late sectionals certainly lend credence to the idea that he will stay but it's a risk that needs factoring into his price.

Rahiebb's old rival Scandinavia comes here on a five match unbeaten run that started in the G3 Bahrain Trophy last July and has taken in the Goodwood Cup, the St Leger (Doncaster), the Vintage Crop (Navan) and the Saval Beg at Leopardstown. As a result of that nap hand he's a very short price here, but he's not actually stepped forward on his level of form across that quintet of scores. He definitely looks under-priced to me and I'm taking him on, for all that he obviously has a sexy knack of getting the job done.

In the end, it looks a three-horse go between the top trio in the market: Scandinavia, Rahiebb and Trawlerman. Although he still sets the standard, my feeling is that Trawlerman, on seasonal bow and now aged eight, is vulnerable to the more progressive four-year-olds. There was only a neck between Scandinavia and Rahiebb in the St Leger last autumn, the latter finishing well and just failing to get up. With both of them needing to prove they stay this far, the value call is definitely Rahiebb.

I expect that Al Riffa could get into the first four if he stays, and maybe onto the podium. He's clear best of the rest for me.

Suggestion: Back Rahiebb to win at 4/1. Have a look at Al Riffa e/w at 10/1.

 

Tix Pointers: Another Aidan/Gosden benefit. Probably keeping it simple here as plenty of problems to follow...

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4.50 THE BRITANNIA STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by Sam Darby

I shared the historic draw and pace data in yesterday’s Royal Hunt Cup preview, so if you want to reference that before having a bet, you’ll find it in the Day Two preview article here.

As I am writing this before Wednesday’s racing begins, I have less information than you’ll have by the time you read this. But on Tuesday it definitely looked as though high draws were advantageous on the straight course; it will be interesting to see if that changes on Wednesday.

The spread of the early pace could have an impact on any potential draw bias here, so the pace map should be insightful.



The pace is pretty evenly spread across the course - and there looks to be lots of it! Given the straight course tends to favour patient rides anyway, this really could be a race where you want to be held up out back and played late.

It goes without saying that any amount of these horses could be well ahead of their marks, such is the nature of these big field 3yo handicaps where pretty much every runner is lightly raced. This is more of a race to follow going forward, rather than to bet on, but that doesn’t mean we can’t back the winner as well!

There are two horses that I like in this one.

My more favoured pick would be Outback Heat, who was well backed following the final decs on Tuesday. He won a course and distance handicap on his most recent start, coming from last to first. Winning that race before landing the Britannia Stakes is a path this trainer took with Docklands back in 2023 and Harry Eustace also saddled the runner up in this race last year (La Botte).

After just three starts, Outback Heat is entitled to improve as much as anything in this field and he beat the subsequent Silver Bowl winner (who reopposes here on worse terms) in that race, alongside some other runners who have placed since in good races.

He’s drawn in 18, which might be a bit closer to the middle than ideal, but it does give him the obvious option of switching to the near side. My main question mark is Kaiya Fraser keeping the ride. He’s been on board for all three runs so far, so at least knows the horse well, but I’d have preferred one of the top jockeys.

The other one who catches my eye is Wechaad for Roger Varian. He’s a bit more exposed than some of these, with six runs under his belt, and whilst I’m on the negatives, maybe he wants a bit more cut in the ground.

He caught the eye on seasonal reappearance at Goodwood though, in a race that is often a good guide for this (2021 winner Perotto took the same route), where he not only did best of those held up but he did best of the high draws, too. Any draw/pace students out there will know how detrimental stall 15 is over 7f at Goodwood, so that effort can be massively marked up.

He’s drawn in stall 28, whereas many of the market fancies appear to be low drawn. If the higher drawn horses are at an advantage, like I think they could be, then there should be some really nice value to be had.

Suggestion: Try each way Outback Heat at 11/1, and Wechaad at 9/1.

 

Tix Pointers: One of the top four in the market has usually won this, but a couple of wacky placepot results involved the joint fifth and joint seventh in the markets being the highest betting rank placed horse. Spread out!

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5.35 THE HAMPTON COURT STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

A typical Hampton Court winner has:
 - yet to win at Group level (15 of the last 15 winners)
 - an official rating of 103+ (14/15)
 - raced 3-7 times in their career (14/15)
 - came from the top 4 in the betting (13/15)
 - returned less than 8/1 (14/15)
13 of the last 15 winners had won at least one of their last three starts and had finished top 6 in all of those three starts (14/15).
3 of the last 15 winners last raced at Epsom (from just 9 such runners).
In the last 15 years, all 22 runners that had their last start in a class 3-5 race, all 15 horses that last ran in the 2000 Guineas, all 12 horses that last ran in a Group 2 and all 6 horses that last ran on the all weather have been beaten.

Traditionally this is a race for those who missed the Derby due to stamina doubts or those that did run in the Derby but didn't stay. The trends are pretty strong and leave us looking at easy Listed winner Endorsement or Lingfield Derby Trial flop Maho Bay.

By Dubawi out of a Dandy Man mare, Maho Bay is probably not bred to stay, especially since everything in his pedigree ran (well) at up to a mile. He'd looked good when taking a Newmarket novice over ten furlongs in handsome style but stopped quickly over the Derby trip in the Lingfield trial. This step down will certainly suit but he needs to find more than his demonstrated level of form.

The form of Endorsement is rock solid having run a 1/2 length second to Derby winner Christmas Day and filling the same position by the same margin behind Derby third James J Braddock in two of the top Irish Derby Trials ealier in the Spring. He was last seen trouncing his field in a 12f Listed contest by over 7 lengths and is another favourite who has the level required to win this Group 3 with the only question to answer being whether he can perform just as well back over 10f.

Suggestion: Back Endorsement at 9/4

 

 

Tix Pointers: Every one of the last 13 winners started in the first four in the betting. Only one of the last eight winners also won last time out. So a fancied runner that perhaps doesn't look like one?

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6.10 THE BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

This race was taken off the calendar in 2015 but reinstated in 2020. Hence in terms of trends, I am looking at the last ten renewals, which cover 2011 to 2014 and 2020 to 2025.

Two wins for horses from the top four of the betting, with both being favourite (last two years). Five winners priced between 12/1 and 18/1; the other three were 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1.

4yos have won six of the last ten (60%) from 40% of the total runners. 4yos do have the best placed record (roughly double compared with the other age groups combined).

7yos and older have a poor record win 0 wins and just 5 places from 45 runners.

Seven of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter on their most recent start. This equates to 70% of the winners from just 42% of the total runners.

 

Draw

The number of runners each year has fluctuated between 23 and 29 so for my draw analysis I am using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail.  Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.

Looking at the last ten renewals, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account, so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

 

As the numbers show horses drawn within ten stalls of the stands’ rail have had a significant edge in this race over the past ten years. Indeed, last year’s race saw a huge draw bias as the race result below shows:

 

 

Now, draw bias can come and go at the Royal meeting, but personally a middle to higher draw would be my preference in this race unless the ground came up soft.

 

Run Style

In terms of run style 29 of the 40 win/placed runners over the last ten renewals were held up or raced mid division. Hold up horses have the best record when we analyse the PRBs hitting 0.58. Generally, a horse coming off the pace would be preferred.

 

 

For a field this size there is a surprising lack of genuine front runners. River King looks the most likely from 14, but it will be interesting to see therefore how quickly they go early.

With a maximum field declared here are my thoughts on a few of them.

Defence Minister – has been unlucky with the draw several times in the past with a prime example being his most recent race, over course and distance. There he was drawn on the wrong side, finishing third of his group but 17th overall. The two runners in his group that finished in front of him both ran well next time so his run was far better than the finishing position suggested. However, based on recent renewals of this race, he could have been unlucky with the draw again as he has a low berth in 8.

Hickory – definitely has age against him in terms of past trends for this race, but with two wins and five placed runs at Ascot he clearly loves it here. Having said that he was disappointing over C&D first time up this season. Was not suited by the run of the race at Sandown last time as it was dominated by horses that were up with the pace that day. Will need a career best to win, but may be worth a look in markets offering lots of places. Has the right type of run style and he is drawn in the middle so has options.

Cosi Bello – Lightly raced four-year-old with just five career starts (three wins, one second, one fourth). Up 2lbs for his seasonal debut win at Haydock in May after which trainer Charlie Fellowes said, "the Buckingham Palace Stakes is the obvious target. I think we’ll go straight there and keep him fresh. The stiff seven will suit him perfectly." Tends to race from off the pace which should be a plus, and he is drawn in 26.

Great Acclaim – Has raced over course and distance three times including when second of 28 last time out. He has been raised two pounds for that effort but his mark of 100 looks fair. His other two runs over course and distance also saw good efforts with another big field second and a 4th of 15. He has a very consistent profile and if excluding his 2yo career he has won six and been placed seven times from 24 starts. Could be well drawn in 23.

The Wizard Of Eye – Beat Great Acclaim over course and distance last time which was his second track/trip success. Raised five pounds for that win and would need a career best at the age of seven to win this. Could be ideally drawn though in 29.

Dance In The Storm – Has had seven runs on the turf with two wins and two placed efforts. Won first time up this year at Chepstow before disappointing at Epsom on Oaks day when fifth of 16. Epsom might not have suited her and if we can forgive that run then she should be there or thereabouts. Looks the best of the very low drawn runners.

River King – Not been out of the first three in five turf starts and has a PRB of 0.91. Comfortable winner from the front at Newbury LTO over 1 mile and likely to press on early here dropped a furlong. It’s hard to win from the front at Ascot but has a clear form chance. Drawn 14.

 

Suggestion: The draw could play a big part here again, but we can never be 100 per cent sure how that will pan out. In such a big field I am happy to try three against the field. I’m taking 20/1 Great Acclaim and 8/1 Cosi Bello from the higher draws and from the lower draws I will take a bit of a flyer on 25/1 Defence Minister as I have always been a fan of negative draw bias.

 

And that's a wrap for Ladies' Day. It doesn't get any easier, does it? But it should be another cracking day of sport, and one good winner will apologise for many other wagering missteps.

Stay lucky!

Matt

 

 

 

Garden Of Eden blossoms in Ribblesdale Stakes

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Garden Of Eden continued her progress to provide trainer Aidan O’Brien with a record sixth victory in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The Ballydoyle handler saddled three runners in the Group Two contest, with Ryan Moore siding with Garden Of Eden (7-1), who struggled in successive Group races in the spring but raised her game to claim a Listed prize at Naas on her most recent appearance.

Island Hopping was deployed in a pacesetting role, but her early exertions took their toll from the home turn, while Garden Of Eden galloped on powerfully up the straight to score by three and a quarter lengths from Understudy, with 2-1 favourite Catalina Delcarpio back in third.

O’Brien said: “I was impressed with that, I’m delighted. She’s getting better which is great.

“We always thought stepping up in trip would help her and we stepped her up to a mile and a quarter the last day and she improved a lot.

“She’s by Saxon Warrior and when they go up in distance they do get better so she obviously improved for the step up.

“The Irish Oaks would be a possibility, but she could also go to America for a Grade One over there, we will have to see.”

Royal Ascot 2025: Day 3 Preview, Tips

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Into 'hump day', better known as Gold Cup day, or Ladies' Day - or even Thursday, or Day 3 - we go. The marathon Group 1 is the feature and, with the weather set fair it will be riding quick, so let's get straight to it.

2.30 THE NORFOLK STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Victor Value

The Norfolk Stakes is a Group 2 run over five furlongs. First run in 1843, it was renamed in 1973 in honour of the 16th Duke of Norfolk, Queen Elizabeth II’s Representative at Ascot from 1945 to 1972. The race achieved its Group 2 status in 2006.

Trends to Note

In recent years, this race has sprung the odd huge surprise. The Ridler (2022) scored at 50/1, and the following year Valiant Force (2023) won at 150/1!

I’m not digging deep into trends today, but from a draw perspective it’s worth noting that horses drawn 11+ are 0 winners from 37 runners, 6 places. That’s an interesting trend given the Exp/Wins=3.28 for those runners.

Contenders

Sixteen have been declared for this year’s Norfolk Stakes, and the first thing that stands out is that short-priced favourite Charles Darwin is drawn in stall 15.

After a good look, just four runners have made my final shortlist:

Charles Darwin: Trained by Aidan O’Brien, the son of No Nay Never has made all to win his last two (of three) starts at Navan. Looked a high-class juvenile last time, visually impressive, and the time backed that up. At a best-priced 13/8 on Tuesday afternoon, he looked value based on form good enough to win the last five renewals. The only negative is his high draw.

Sandal’s Song: Overcame a slow start to show good speed when winning on debut at Gulfstream Park (firm ground). A sprinting type on looks, he’s been purchased by Wathnan Racing, and if he handles a straight track, I think he’ll go very close. Triner George Weaver saddled the 2023 Queen Mary winner, subsequently bought by Wathnan, so he knows what is required to win a Royal Ascot juvenile contest.

Naval Light (Karl Burke): Bought for 360,000 gns at the Craven Breeze-ups by Wathnan Racing. Finished second to Old Is Gold in the Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley on racecourse debut. He was slowly away that day and ran green in the early stages of the race but once the penny dropped, finished off well. Burke won this last year with a colt who had won the Beverley race. Retained jockey James Doyle opts for him over Sandal’s Song with James McDonald riding the latter which is no negative.

Afjan: The speedy son of Mehmas overcame greenness to win on debut at Chantilly 18 days ago. He produced a high-class turn of foot to win that day and is open to plenty of improvement. I was impressed with this success, and I think the stiffer Ascot 5f will suit.

Norfolk Stakes Verdict

I only fancy four of the 16 runner’s - cue a big- priced winner like The Ridler or Valiant Force!  I will be quite surprised if one of that quartet doesn’t win. Charles Darwin’s form is rock solid and he’s a worthy favourite. However, I want to take him on because of the draw and his price. His nearest market rival is Naval Light who will win races this season and most likely at Group level.  However, I was hoping for better than a best priced 4/1.  At bigger odds I prefer American challenger Sandal’s Song - he looks a big price to me - and French-trained colt Afjan.

Selection: Afjan – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3.05 THE KING GEORGE V STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Rory Delargy

Despite being over a mile and a half and with the low stalls on the inside these days (it wasn’t ever thus), there is no advantage to be drawn in single figures in the King George V Handicap (or the Duke of Edinburgh over the same track and trip for the three-year-olds); and, to demonstrate, I’ve compiled the results by draw since 2001, which shows that nine horses have won the race from single figure draws, but that ten have won from stall 15 or higher in the same timeframe. So punters should consider those drawn high to be at some sort of advantage, for all that may seem to defy conventional wisdom. In reality, the stiff track confers no advantage to front runners, and those coming from off the pace tend to fan out from the inner rail in the straight, with travelling a little further no hardship in the grand scheme of things.

That isn’t to say that you can’t win from a low draw, but those who do are rarely helped by a position near the rail, except in the rare circumstance where the fastest ground is on the far rail, as it was in 2022, when the race was dominated by those who sat handily. The first six home in the Norfolk Stakes that year were all drawn low, and if that is repeated then you should take note. When the draw on the straight course favours high numbers, then that tends to be repeated on the round course, too, and early signs are that will be the case this year.

It's possible to make all from a wide draw, although those who have done so have tended to keep off the inside rail until near the turn, and recent years have shown a bias towards strong-staying hold-up performers from high-to-mid berths. Last year Going The Distance (stall 18) beat Neski Sherelski (19) and if you listened to Simon Holt’s commentary, you’ll notice that they are called as the last pair to reach the home turn. In 2023, Desert Hero (21) had three or four behind him on the home turn before winning. In contrast the last three positions that year were filled by horses drawn wide who were up with the pace.

On the face of it, Sing Us A Song is likely to be one of the front runners here having made all to win on his handicap debut at Sandown last time, but I think that James Doyle will be more patient than Hector Crouch was there. Sing Us A Song gallops like a stayer and Crouch took him forward last time to utilise his stamina over a trip which is a minimum for him, fending off challenges in the straight and never stronger than up the climb to the line at Sandown.

Given the extra demands on stamina here, there is no need to be aggressive on Sing Us A Song, who strikes me as the type to take another leap forward in form terms for this stiffer test and I hope that Doyle allows him to find his stride in the early stages before launching a bid from off the pace. He is a full-brother to the ill-fated Sir Erec, who was placed in the British Champions Long Distance Cup as a three-year-old and a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, but sadly broke a leg when favourite for the Triumph Hurdle. His dam is also a half-sister to Mahler, who was placed in the St Leger and Melbourne Cup, so all the signs are that this trip and further are going to bring out the best in him. I like him a lot.

Recommendation: Sing Us A Song (Win/Each-way) at 8/1 with bet365 (5 places)

 

3.40 THE RIBBLESDALE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A mile and a half for three-year-old fillies - an Ascot Oaks if you will. Being so close to the original (and still the best) Epsom variant means we only have one filly - Go Go Boots - coming here from there, and she's not especially fancied by the market. The top three from the betting lists have fared well enough - bagging eight of the last twelve Ribblesdales between them - but the jolly has only two wins in that time.

Aidan and Johnny G (now with Thady G as well) have won most of that dozen, three-quarters in fact, the Ballydoyle man owning most recent bragging rights as he and Ryan Moore have paired up to take the most recent two renewals. Not since Lady Cecil's Riposte won in 2013 has a filly unraced at two won the Ribblesdale, which might be a concern for the top two in the current lists, Serenity Prayer and Catalina Delcarpio.

Serenity Prayer is trained by Andrew Balding and won a traditionally strong Newbury fillies' maiden on debut before beating all bar Whirl in the Musidora, the key Oaks trial, at York last time. Nevertheless, she was more than five lengths inferior to the winner on the Knavesmire though it should of course be noted that Whirl all but won the Oaks, beaten just a neck. After just two starts she can be expected to stride forward on what she's shown to date.

Go Go Boots was only a neck behind Serenity Prayer at York and, if she just didn't handle Epsom, she is over-priced.

The same is true of Catalina Delcarpio whose form figures of 12 mirror Serenity's. She's trained by Paddy Twomey, and also won a maiden easily - at Leopardstown in her case - before running second in a Group 3. That form has not worked out well, though the winner was fourth at Epsom and most of the rest were beaten far enough.

The Moore / O'Brien axis is represented by a far more experienced filly in Garden Of Eden. She's been second and first in a brace of Listed contests either side of her winter break, but was well enough beaten in a couple of mile Group 3's at the start of this term. Stepping up to ten furlongs last time, she led all the way in the Naas Oaks Trial; her pedigree hardly screams she wants to go further but who am I to second guess the great man?

John and Thady run two more candidates as well as Go Go Boots, led by Life Is Beautiful. Thrice raced, she won a Kempton maiden on debut before running second to a nice filly in a novice back at the same track (both mile races). Upped to a mile and a quarter last time saw her run up again, behind the unbeaten Coronation Stakes favourite Falakeyah.

Understudy may be just that here. She's got a lovely staying pedigree - by Sea The Stars out of a Selkirk mare - but this is huge leap in grade from a Class 5 Southwell novice. Still, she's bound to be capable of better in time.

Charlie Johnston saddled Caspi Star to be third to Oaks winner Minnie Hauk in the Cheshire Oaks. She was beaten half the distance Serenity Prayer was by Whirl, with Minnie Hauk edging that one out, so 10/1 this lass feels more attractive than 3/1 the jolly. She's improved a stone and more in two runs since getting bested by Lady Vivian, though that one has also stepped forward and doubled up in a handicap at the Chester May meeting last time.

Aidan O'Brien also runs Ecstatic and Island Hopping, the former another experienced filly for whom excuses can be made the last couple of starts: messy race, no run at Newbury and may not have handled the soft turf at Navan the time before. She does need them, however. Island Hopping was behind Garden Of Eden in Listed class last time but may be slightly more stoutly bred and may also be enlivened by the first time blinkers.

Suggestion: I think the percentage play is Garden Of Eden at around 5/1 win only despite the stamina reservation. She did seem to improve for the extra quarter mile last time and, if she can do likewise for a further two-eights, she's value against the inexperienced pair atop the market. Caspi Star at 10's might be an interesting small each way play based on her Chester run..

 

4.20 THE GOLD CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A smallish field of eight line up for the Blue Riband and, in the absence of the sadly retired Kyprios, it's a more open contest than might otherwise have been the case. The question is, does Aidan O'Brien have a ready made replacement for his injured star stayer in the shape of Illinois?

Four-year-old have won all bar four of the last dozen Gold Cups, and of the quartet of older winners, three were repeaters who'd won prevoiusly aged four - Kyprios once and Stradivarius twice. Without a repeater, the youngest eligible age group looks the right focus. It's another race where Messrs O'Brien and the Gosdens have something of a hegemony with both well invested this time around.

The favourite, Illinois, comes from Ballydoyle and is from the penultimate crop of mega-sire Galileo. Winner of the Queen's Vase this time last year, he finished the season with second in the St Leger; this season's pipe opener was a cosy success in the Ormonde Stakes and he comes here in fine fettle, the second from Chester going a place better at York last weekend. This is, however, a step up in trip and in class, Illinois never having raced beyond the extended mile and three quarters of the St Leger. He seems an uncomplicated sort so ought to give himself every chance of relaxing into a good rhythm, though he does usually race handily.

Second choice is the Gosdens' Trawlerman, a perennial forward goer. He stays well and acts on quick turf as he showed when a length behind Kyprios in the race last year, a repeat of which would likely be good enough to take top honours this time around. He won by five lengths on his return from Dubai, in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last month. He's likely to bid to make all but, at seven years young, time may not be on his side against less exposed rivals.

One of those is the French raider Candelari, trained by Francis-Henri Graffard. He made his debut on the all-weather through the winter before seamlessly reverting to turf; his second grass spin, last time out, was a staying on win in the almost two miles Prix Vicomtesse Vigier, a Group 1. A feature of his races is switching off and rattling home late: he'll not have too much time to gather his thoughts in the short home straight at Ascot but he looks like he'll relish the extra range. This will be just his sixth career start so there's probably more in the lockeur.

It would be a shock, to me at least, if any of the rest were to win. Sweet William was five lengths behind Trawlerman last term and is a year older now; Wonder Legend improve 16lb on the all-weather through the winter but this is big ask (he's vaguely interesting e/w); and I don't expect the veterans Coltrane, Yashin or Dubai Future to, well, have a future, in the context of this G1 at any rate.

Illinois might be the one but he's a fair bit to prove at his sub-2/1 quote. I think Trawlerman likely just sets it up for a younger closer - though fair play to him if I'm wrong on that; and so the one I'm siding with is Frenchie Candelari, whose chance will depend to some degree on Mikael Barzelona getting his fractions right. He doesn't always. Will it be Ooh la la! or Zut alors?!

Suggestion: Back CANDELARI to win at 10/3 (or 3/1 or better).

 

5.00 THE BRITANNIA STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by David Massey

The Thirsk piece of form where Terroom beat Parole D’Oro is where I’m going to start this form guide for the Brittania, as the pair of them feature highly towards the top of the market, and I think it might be a strong piece of form. 

Terroom came out on top by ¾l that day, but Parole D’Oro travelled like the best horse (traded 1.03 in the run) and just couldn’t quite finish the job off. Terroom went on to show the form as solid by winning again at Haydock, beating Tilted Kilt ¾l.

Going back to Thirsk, Parole D’Oro was giving Terroom 2lb that day, yet gets 4lb today, plus there’s the addition of a tongue tie, which you’d like to think would help him see it out a little stronger. That 6lb turnaround in the weights makes me think Parole d’Oro can reverse form today, and I like where he’s berthed, in stall 24, with a potential pace angle in The Lost King next door in 25 to give him a tow into it.

At 33s and bigger, despite what looks a moderate draw, Mr Chaplin has to be on the shortlist too. We liked him a lot, physically, when winning a nursery at Glorious Goodwood last year (paddock pick) and, off the back of that, he took his chance against The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court in the Group 3 Acomb at York. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he was unable to land a blow against such classy opposition but ran respectably and was spotted running on late. He tried making all in the Flying Scotsman on his final start of last year and on the figures ran his best race of the season to finish fourth. 

He didn’t reappear until May this season when eighth at Goodwood but that doesn’t begin to tell the story, as he was in a good position to challenge two furlongs out but was constantly denied a run up the rail - a horror story we’re all too familiar with at that track - and in the end, Richard Kingscote accepted the situation and allowed him to come home in his own time. He lost multiple places late as a result, and to me he shaped as if he retains all of his ability. A mile today is a new test for him but the way he finished off at Goodwood when winning over seven suggests he might even improve a bit for it. If the draw does beat him today, keep him in mind for something similar in the near future. 

Middle draws certainly didn’t hamper the chances of anyone on Day One, and Raafedd’s stall 14, smack in the middle, looks a very good place to work from. You couldn’t help but be impressed with the way he beat Accentuate at Newbury last time out, leading a full two furlongs out, then powering clear and geared down to win two lengths. The second did the form no harm when scoring by three lengths at Windsor last week, giving the form a very solid look, and the time figure for Raafedd’s win at Newbury was good too. 

This step up to a mile will surely suit him even better, and there has to be more to come from this son on Teofilo, you fancy. He rounds out my three against the field for the race. 

Three against the field: Parole d'Oro 11/1, Raafedd 11/1, Mr Chaplin 33/1

 

5.35 THE HAMPTON COURT STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

TRENDS

A typical Hampton Court winner has yet to win at Group level (15 of the last 15 winners), has an official rating of 103+ (14/15), has raced 3-6 times in their career (14/15), came from the top 4 in the betting (13/15) and returned less than 8/1 (14/15). 13 of the last 15 winners had won at least one of their last three starts and had finished top 6 in all of those three starts (14/15).

3 of the last 15 winners last raced at Epsom (from just 9 such runners).

In the last 15 years, all 22 runners that had their last start in a class 3-5 race, all 15 horses that last ran in the 2000 Guineas, all 12 horses that last ran in a Group 2, and all 6 horses that last ran on the all-weather have been beaten.

RACE ANALYSIS:

A cracking looking race with the Aidan O'Brien French Derby 4th Trinity College heading the betting. With the first six home that day finishing in a heap, and with just a length and a half covering them all, it's hard to say what the form's worth. On his previous start Trinity College had been beaten by the now re-opposing Sea Scout at Epsom and, with that rival trading as a 66/1 outsider here, that's either a great price on him or a worthless piece of form. With Sea Scout subsequently finishing 8th in the Dante and 11th in the Derby I'm leaning towards the latter.

Traditionally this is a race for those who missed the Derby due to stamina doubts or those that did run in the Derby but failed to get home.

One horse who the latter definitely applies to is the 2000 Guineas 4th TORNADO ALERT who looks an absolutely massive price if over his Derby exertions from just 12 days ago. A staying on 4th at Newmarket over a mile, where he was just four lengths off Field of Gold, he was doing some good work late on and caught the eye of a lot of expert judges. His trainer was happy to talk up his chances for the Derby but, on the day, the 1m4f trip seemed to find him out and he patently didn't stay the last couple of furlongs.

He looks sure to appreciate the drop back to this intermediate 10f trip and he is one of the few runners in the field with genuine Group 1 form. He scores highly on the trends and his trainer won this in 2017 (stable have had just one runner in the race since) with a 113-rated horse that came here on the back of a 5th in the Derby. Top international jockey James McDonald is booked and there's so much to like about his chances I'll be shocked if he isn't involved at the finish.

SELECTION: TORNADO ALERT 1pt EW

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6.10 THE BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

This race was taken off the calendar in 2015 but reinstated in 2020. Hence in terms of trends I am looking at the last ten renewals, which cover 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024.

10-year trends

Market

Just one win for horses from the top four of the betting. (English Oak last year when fav).

Six winners priced between 12/1 and 18/1; the other three were 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1.

 

Age

4yos have won five of the last ten but they have provided 40% of the total runners. 4yos do have the best placed record (double other age groups combined).

7yos and older have a poor record win 0 wins and just 5 places from 47 runners.

 

LTO Price

Seven of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter on their most recent start. This equates to 70% of the winners from 40% of the total runners.

 

Draw

The number of runners each year has fluctuated between 23 and 29 runners so for my draw analysis I am using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail.  Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.

Looking at the last 10 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account,  so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

Draw position in relation to stands rail PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5  stalls away 0.58 0.59
6 to 10  stalls away 0.61 0.64
11 to 15  stalls away 0.45 0.49
16 to 20  stalls away 0.47 0.48
21 or more stalls away 0.42 0.44

 

As the numbers show horses drawn within ten stalls of the stands’ rail have had a significant edge in this race over the past ten years.

 

Run Style

Now I am looking at the PRBs for each run style group based on the last ten years. The splits are:

 

Run Style PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group 0.49 0.49
Prominent 0.37 0.42
Mid Division 0.52 0.53
Held up 0.57 0.58

 

Based on these past figures, hold up horses have had the edge here, followed by mid pack runners. Indeed, eight of the last ten winners came from one of these two run styles.

Onto my favoured candidates:

Never So Brave – Now with Andrew Balding having formerly been with Sir Michael Stoute. He has had one run this season at Chester where he pulled far too hard and then had to be switched just over a furlong from home. Was the fastest finisher in the field that day running 0.23 secs quicker than anything else in the final furlong. Finished second but should have won. He has been raised 4lb which looks fair. Is drawn next to English Brave in 28 and has the assistance of the excellent Oisin Murphy in the saddle. Often races prominently but hopefully he will be ridden with a little more restraint.

English Oak – He won this race last year extremely impressively off a handicap mark of 99. He is one 1lb higher here. That performance was rated at 114 by Racing Post Ratings. Since then, he has failed to register a win in seven starts but his last run when sixth at Newbury showed some promise in a race that was slowly run. Last year, this race was run at a very strong pace and despite there being no genuine front runners in the field one would expect the same again here which will play to his strengths. Draw 27 should be OK.

No Retreat – He ran well at the start of the year in Dubai winning a decent handicap at Meydan in February before finishing a neck second to Silver Sword at the same track in an even better handicap three weeks later. He was down to run in the Victoria Cup last month but was withdrawn on the morning of the race. He then went to Haydock where he finished a decent third. No Retreat has been very consistent, always making the top three throughout his career. He races off 97 which is 3lbs higher than his Dubai second mentioned above and he looks overpriced at around 25/1. The draw in 1 though is a concern, unless earlier straight track races suggest otherwise. Has raced midfield / near the back in four of his last five runs so hopefully we see the same tactics employed here.

Gorak – At a big price Gorak is interesting. He ran in the race in 2023 and 2024 finishing 12th both times. However, he had valid excuses both times. In 2024 he was badly drawn but was a close up second on his part of the track. In 2023 he stuck to the stands rail and finished first of six in his group, but the centre of the course was strongly favoured that day. If he gets a run he will be drawn 10 which is still lower than ideal, but the likely price will compensate.

 

Conclusion

English Oak would win this easily if back to last year’s form but at 5/1 or thereabouts the price is just too tight IMO.

 

Suggestion

Never So Brave e/w at 8/1 and No Retreat e/w at 25/1

If Gorak runs has a small e/w saver at around 33/1

Several bookies are going six places (Bet 365, Betfred, Boyal Sports, Corals, Paddy Power to name but five), seven places with Sky Bet.

 

 

Royal Ascot 2022: Day 3 (Thursday) Preview, Tips

/in /by

Thursday, day three at Royal Ascot, Ladies' Day, features the signature race of the entire week, the Gold Cup, first run in 1807. The Ribblesdale Stakes, Group 2, further bolsters an exciting seven race card with three impossibly difficult handicap puzzles, a two-year-old Group 2 sprint and a Group 3 for the Classic generation completing the menu. As ever, we get underway at 2.30, with the...

2.30 Norfolk Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo)

The Norfolk Stakes, first run in 1843, was originally called the New Stakes and run over less than half a mile! It was renamed in reference to the Duke Of Norfolk in 1973.

Favourite this time is The Antarctic, for the Coolmore collective. He's two from two at this minimum trip, the second of which was when beating the smart yardstick, Mehmar, and subsequent scorer and Windsor Castle entry, Wodao. He's the pick of the Irish and may be the pick of the lot, but some have run faster than him to this point.

Walbank is one such. Football agent Kia Joorabchian has invested heavily in the sport in the last couple of years under the AMO Racing banner; and he forked out over half a million for this lad, the first foal of No Lippy - a three-time winner over five furlongs as a juvenile - by Kodiac, at the breeze up sales. A highly promising debut over course and distance when giving best only to Coventry fancy, Noble Style, was improved upon when bolting up by seven lengths in a four-runner York novice. He's obviously quick.

Andrew Balding saddles the once-raced unbeaten Bakeel, and we know already of the Kingsclere handler's deft touch in Royal Ascot juvenile events. Bakeel's win was over course and distance on good to firm, so no reservations about conditions. He will of course progress from first to second start as almost all of Balding's horses do.

Crispy Cat is another about whose level of form we will know more by race time. He's been close to both Maria Branwell and Blackbeard in defeat, those two fancied for earlier juvenile contests in the week. When I say 'close', he's a short head and a neck away from being three-from-three, with fresh air back to the third in the Listed National Stakes last time. I expect he'll be near the lead early.

If Pillow Talk runs here - she's still in Friday's Albany as well - she could be a contender. She beat her 14 rivals in the Listed Marygate Stakes at York last time and, while the margin was only a neck, she was going away at the death: that bodes well for the rise to the line here.

A typically competitive two-year-old race at the Royal meeting, with the winner almost certain to reveal more than the level currently in the book. As such, it's a question of value guessing! Pillow Talk, in receipt of three pounds from the colts, could give the boys plenty to think about and is offered as an each way play more in hope than expectation in a cracking little contest.

3.05 King George V Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

One of the quirkier draw biases in Britain is Ascot's mile and a half when big fields line up. For whatever reason, low numbers seem to have a devil of a job as the images below break down.

The first chart, above, is a simple percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) by draw third. Below is a rolling three-stall average percentage of rivals beaten (PRB3).

With PRB, every runner in every race receives a score for the percentage of rivals they've beaten. For example, in a five runner race, the winner has beaten 100% of rivals and the last home has beaten 0% of rivals. The second horse across the line lost to the winner but beat three others - he beat three of his four rivals and, therefore, had 75% of rivals beaten. Still with me? Good.

From there, we can calculate a PRB score for each stall, or for a trainer's runners, or for... well, lots of things. It's a really useful metric and is always my 'go to' when looking for a draw bias.

We publish PRB on a scale of 0 to 1, representing 0% to 100%; thus a PRB of 0.5 means 50% of rivals beaten, which is slap bang in the middle - no edge, positive or negative. A good PRB score is generally considered to be anything from 55% (0.55) upwards, while a poor PRB score is anything from 45% (0.45) downwards. Remember that, now!

Getting back to our second chart above, we see that stalls 1 to 6 are all at or around 0.45 or lower; this is not good. Stalls 7 to 9 or so hover on 0.5 - no edge - while stalls 10 to around 16 surge into the advantageous zone before the widest stalls of all lapse back towards 0.45 for box 19, the maximum width of starting gate used at this distance.

Because every runner receives a score, that means we have a sample size of 461 in spite of there only having been 26 races under these conditions since 2009, from when our data commences.

The management summary - and I appreciate some of you would have been screaming for this several paras earlier - is that a double-digit draw though probably not higher than 16 or 17, might be optimal, all other things being equal. Phew. [I wanted to share the above because I believe it has much more general utility for the more curious Gold subscribers, and I hope it might help you to gain a more nuanced understanding of draw biases].

Focusing exclusively on the presumed warm zone, let's start with Henry and Jamie - de Bromhead and Spencer - who might be something of an odd couple in one regard but who both know the time of day in another. They combine with Vina Sena, who has been held up in defeat the last four times, largely over ten furlongs. He's gagging for the extra quarter mile and looks to handle quick turf well. Naturally, a charmed passage will be needed but he's a very fair price about which to take that chance.

This is an interesting slot for the William Haggas handicap debutant, Post Impressionist, who was second to Eldar Eldarov (runs in the Queen's Vase on Wednesday). The trip should be no problem as a son of Teofilo whose mum won over hurdles (and was Group placed on the level). Depending on how the Vase goes, his opening mark of 89 could look lenient by the time they enter the stalls.

Israr is a Shadwell colt who has been running as if this mile and a half will suit better than the ten furlongs over which he won last time. That's hardly surprising given that his dam is none other than 2014 Oaks and King George heroine, Taghrooda. He's clearly bred to be good and we have not seen the best of him yet. He's another late runner from a presumed good draw.

And how could I not mention Clock Watcher horse, Franz Strauss? He was noted as an upwardly mobile type in this post in January since when he's run a middling sort of race in a ten furlong Nottingham novice having also run only fairly in a Group 3 the time before. Sights are lowered to handicap company, and Frankie climbs aboard for the first time.

A typical Royal Ascot handicap with oodles of unexposed regally-bred possibles. I'm going to split two units between three horses each way, such is my lily-livered uncertainty (whilst still wanting to be involved, natch). The trio is comprised of Vina Sena - could be a classic Jamie closer; Post Impressionist (bet him before the Queen's Vase, because he'll shorten if Eldar runs well); and Franz Strauss, who might have been pegged for this for a little while - he'd have needed that novice spin to qualify.

3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo)

The 'Ascot Oaks', as just about nobody calls it, thankfully, was named after the fourth Baron Ribblesdale, Master of the Buckhounds between 1892 and 1895 and, these days, is contested by three-year-old fillies over a mile and a half having formerly been a mile race.

Three trainers since 1977 have notched five Ribblesdales: the late John Dunlop, Saeed bin Suroor and John Gosden. Saeed is without a runner this time and Gosden 2.0, the John and Thady variant, have decided against sending Oaks runner up Emily Upjohn just 13 days after her narrow defeat at Epsom. As it turns out, only six are declared to run.

With Emily absent, Sea Silk Road is quite a strong favourite having run like she was crying out for further when winning the Listed Height Of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood (1m2f, soft) last time. That was only her third career start so she is likely to progress from that perspective, too, and she'll be tough to beat if dealing with the much quicker turf.

Another for whom the longer distance looks a positive is Magical Lagoon, by Galileo out of a strong staying German mare whose progeny have already won over as far as two miles. Connections made plenty of use of her last time when, having raced prominently throughout, she was just out-sped in the closing stages of the Listed Salsabil Stakes (1m2f, Navan, good). It looks as though the Jessica Harrington-trained filly will be able to get a lead from Mystic Wells, but may again have to try to bring her stamina to the fore.

Mystic Wells herself has progressed from a Brighton handicap to winning the Listed Lingfield Oaks Trial last time. She will again try to lead her field from start to finish but will find this a good bit tougher opposition.

The Ballydoyle filly, History, cost a cool 2.8million guineas as a yearling and had looked faintly like justifying some of the massive price tag when going back to back in a Gowran maiden and a Leopardstown Group 3; but she was rumbled over the mile of the Irish 1000 Guineas and is now jumping half a mile up in trip. Out of a Showcasing mare, she is not necessarily bred for middle distances, though there is no track evidence yet that it will be beyond her. She has a bit to find on the book as well as the pedometer.

Godolphin have a ticket to the Ribblesdale party, too, and send their twice-raced Life Of Dreams. She was a facile winner of a Newbury maiden over ten furlongs on debut in April and then got closest to Emily Upjohn in the Musidora at York last month. That was still more than five lengths adrift of the Oaks second but she, like a number of her rivals, can be expected to progress further, and also has stamina in her pedigree.

Rounding out the sextet is Mukaddamah, trained by Roger Varian. She won a Wolverhampton novice on debut before taking silver in an Ascot conditions race over a mile, and then most recently a bronze behind Nashwa in the Listed Newbury Fillies' Trial (1m2f, good). She is yet another with pedigree and natural progression ahead of this tilt, though she has a little to find on numbers.

It was a striking performance by Sea Silk Road at Goodwood last time, albeit on very different turf, and she'll take plenty of beating if adapting to this faster lawn. A sporting alternative might be Magical Lagoon who will very much appreciate the extended distance and who might be able to get first run; the balance of her form to date is about as good as any of her rivals.

4.20 Gold Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 4yo+)

The highlight of Ladies Day is the Gold Cup, 215 years old, and for horses that have class and stamina in equal measure. The nature of the race, and of breeding fashion, means that we've been blessed with a clutch of serial winners, the latest of which was Stradivarius, who rattled off a hat-trick between 2018 and 2020. There was a feeling that he ought to have secured the four-timer but for a rare lapse from big race perfection by his peerless jockey, Frankie Dettori; whilst it's certainly true he didn't get a clear run, I'm unconvinced he'd have won on the day in any case.

Since then, the now eight-year-old has found Trueshan too good twice, both times on a softer surface, but has also won thrice, each time on sounder turf. Therein lies the crux of the matter: both Trueshan and Stradivarius appear somewhat picky about underfoot requirements. The former wants it soft or at least softish, the latter wants it quick or at least quickish. On this occasion, the weather gods appear to have smiled upon the three-time champ and, granted normal luck in running, he's going to make a bold bid once more.

But neither is favoured. That honour goes to Kyprios, a relative newcomer to the staying ranks who is now unbeaten in two since stepping up beyond a mile and a half. However, hitherto, he's only stepped up marginally beyond that range, and here will be invited to see out an additional three-quarters of a mile against teak tough veteran warriors. A 14 length last day win was all but expected - his SP was 1/10 - and I'm not (yet) buying the hype on this fella. He's the upstart, all right, but he still has several unanswered questions on his exam paper.

There are other pretenders in the field. Princess Zoe has been at the top table for a while now, winning the G1 Prix du Cadran (2m4f, heavy) in 2020. She was also closest to Subjectivist in last year's Gold Cup (good to firm), so we know she stays very well, has class and handles pretty much any turf. But she was five lengths second and it's hard to believe she'd have finished in front of Stradivarius if he'd had a clear passage. Princess Zoe warmed up for her Gold Cup tilt with a Group 3 score in the Sagaro Stakes on this track though at the shorter two mile range: she shapes up well against conditions, I just wonder if she has the class needed.

For dreamers and fantasists - that's me, in case you'd not already fathomed as much - there's an interesting one in the long grass. Brian Ellison trains Tashkhan, a four-year-old who has improved with age and racing from 0-70 handicaps to Group races. He was second here in the Group 1 Long Distance Cup on British Champions Day (two miles) - Stradivarius third - and was only three lengths behind Strad in the Yorkshire Cup (1m6f) last month. This longer distance looks tailor made, he handles all ground conditions, has only five lengths to find on official figures, and he's a bit of each way value at... wait, what? 40/1? First or last, that's way too big.

Mojo Star was last seen 278 days ago in the St Leger where he ran a mighty race to finish second. He occupied the same position when running an even more impressive race in the Derby so, if he is fit enough after that layoff and if he stays, he could be in the mix. Those are a couple of big if's but his class is demonstrable.

France comes to the Gold Cup via Mikel Delzangles' Bubble Smart. She was third behind Trueshan in the Cadran last October, and had previously rattled off a hat-trick at trips around two miles; but she's been beaten both times this season with no obvious excuses for a below par effort last time. She handles good ground but is unlikely to have raced on turf this rapid, which is another question mark.

This is a race that ostensibly revolves around Kyprios and Stradivarius in the presumed absence of Trueshan. If the last named does run, there are clear reservations about fast ground. Kyprios has to prove he stays this far and that he's a Group 1 horse - he probably does and he probably is, but his price seems to have factored more 'definitely' than 'probably' into it. I can see Stradivarius taking strong support with the Frankie factor in play, and I think he has a great chance to add a fourth Gold Cup to his sumptuous CV. If you want a hail mary play, consider Tashkhan, who looks like he'll appreciate the longer distance and has form in and around Strad and Trueshan - he's 40/1 or so.

5.00 Britannia Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

This is too difficult for me, frankly. A means of shortlisting three-year-old handicaps at the Royal meeting is this:

- Not making their handicap debut
- Ran 1st or 2nd last time out
- Won, or beaten two lengths or less last time out

That removes half the field. Alas, it also leaves half the field! A few of the remaining 15 I like the look of are:

Whoputfiftyinyou - unbeaten in four, he won a strong-looking handicap at Haydock last time beating St James's Palace Stakes-bound Mighty Ulysses. As with other entries in the second part of the week, we'll have a better idea on the merit of the form after other runners have franked, or clunked, the form. Held up to get the trip on his first try at a mile at Haydock, he saw it out very well and now comes to a race where closers are the de rigeur run style.

Tranquil Night - winner of his last three, the form of which has worked out very well. He was nearly four lengths too good for Outgate at Newmarket last time, that horse having won twice since. The 3rd, 4th, 8th and 9th have also won since, none of which were in the same postcode as the winner at the jam stick.

Atrium - another from the January Clock Watcher post, he was a three length winner over course and distance in early May since when he's been saved for this. Held up there, he stormed through to score decisively, and the second and third have both won since. The remainder were more than five lengths adrift of the winner.

Koy Koy - race was lost at the start last time when he was badly interfered with and almost fell; despite that he passed all bar the winner around Chester's Roodee, a track where it is almost as hard to overtake as the Monaco Grand Prix. Entitled to improve both for a straight mile and a second run of the season.

Obviously, millions of others with chances. Good luck but don't ask me to choose a winner!

5.35 Hampton Court Stakes (1m2f, Group 3, 3yo)

Contested since 2002, the Hampton Court has had other names: it was initially the New Stakes because, well, it was new; then, in the midst of its Hampton Court days, it was renamed the Tercentenary Stakes in recognition of 300 years of racing at Ascot. It has now reverted to, and presumably will remain - until 400 years of racing at Ascot at least, the Hampton Court.

I'm bound to say that that short gallop through the naming history of the race may be more exciting than either its victorious alumni or this year's entries, both of which could be argued are a trifle underwhelming for the Royal meeting.

However, there is a story hereabouts, and that is the odds on favourite, Reach For The Moon, is owned by The Queen. How wonderful most people would consider it were Her Majesty to enjoy a winner here in the year of her Platinum Jubilee. I would be amongst that group, though I respect others' right to be less excited at the prospect.

To the form, and we again will know more after an earlier race; in this instance, the St James's Palace Stakes will reveal more about the level of My Prospero's ability, RFTM having finished second to that Group 1 aspirant last time. He is already a Group 3 winner, last summer in the Solario Stakes, and was just a neck second in the G2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster thereafter. Reach For The Moon is entitled to step forward for his seasonal pipe opener, is bred to relish the extra quarter mile and has the help of Signor Dettori up top.

Prospective party-pooper-in-chief is Claymore, second in the Craven Stakes on his only 2022 appearance. That form has worked out well with the winner, Native Trail, finishing second in the 2000 Guineas before winning the Irish equivalent. And third placed Hoo Ya Mal hardly let the side down when getting closest to Desert Crown in the Derby.

In contrast, the form of Cresta's second to Star Of India in the Dee Stakes at Chester took a whack when that one ran a stinker in the biggie at Epsom. I'm not sold on this four-time loser since a novice score so, naturally, expect him to win!

Hughie Morrison looked as though he had another good one on his hands when Maksud won in spite of greenness on debut, though some of that initial optimism dissipated with a close up fourth in the Listed Cocked Hat at Goodwood. Fully entitled to step forward again on this third career start, he'll need to find close to a stone on official figures.

The other pair, Howth and Kingmax, are not obvious contenders though could surprise if the race got extremely tactical.

Frankie will probably try to keep this simple by bouncing out and gradually winding up the pace in the hope of burning off his five rivals. I hope that he, and Reach For The Moon, achieve that. Next best looks like Claymore but aside from the Royal angle I'm not too fussed for this one...

6.10 Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Or this one, either... it is too hard for me. A little bird tells me Vafortino, winner of the course and distance Victoria Cup, might still be sufficiently ahead of his mark to go in again. I didn't want to risk wasting my time, and potentially your money, by offering any of my own thoughts on this most inscrutable of handicaps. The bar beckons...

*

Until tomorrow.

Matt