Posts

Stat of the Day, 20th January 2018

Friday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Miss Minuty @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/2 Switched left start, held up in rear, short of room over 2f out, effort just inside final furlong, kept on one pace....

Next up is Saturday's...

12.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chester Street @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m on Polytrack worth £5,531 to the winner...

Why?

A 5 yr old gelding who was beaten by less than a length last time out, despite coming off a 231 day absence. He was only caught very late on that day at Kempton and although he's been rested since, hi current lay-off is less than half the length of that last one.

Despite that last defeat, he's still 3 from 6 on the A/W so far (all on Polytrack), including...

  • 2/5 over 1 mile, 2/5 in handicaps and 3/4 when sent off at 9/2 or shorter
  • 3/4 in fields of 9-12 runners, 2/4 going left handed and 2/4 in a hood
  • 2/2 when sent off as favourite and 1/1 at Class 4, although he is also a former Class 2 winner.

He's trained by Roger Charlton, whose runners are 26/107 (24.3% SR) for 36.1pts (+33.8% ROI) here on the Lingfield A/W over the last four years, from which...

  • Class 3 to 5  : 19/75 (25.3%) for 45.9pts (+61.2%)
  • over 6f to a mile : 19/67 (28.4%) for 54.07pts (+80.7%)
  • males are 15/61 (24.6%) for 39pts (+63.9%)
  • 5 yr olds are 2/6 (33.3%) for 5.62pts (+93.7%)

AND...Class 3 to 5 males over 6f to a mile are 9/27 (33.3% SR) for 53pts (+196.4% ROI)

PLUS...when Roger has used a jockey claiming 3lb in an A/W handicap over the last two years, those runners are 8/30 (26.6% SR) for 19.77pts at an ROI of 65.9%.

...pointing... a 1pt win bet on Chester Street @ 3/1 BOG which was available from 10Bet, Coral & Ladbrokes at 4.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2017

Friday's Result :

5.20 Hexham : Final Fling @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 : Mid-division, headway chasing leaders 6th, mistake 9th, outpaced approaching 2 out, kept on again run-in, went 2nd close home, no chance with winner...

Saturday's selection goes in the...

5.35 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cribbs Causeway @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly with 4 wins and a place from her last six outings and was a runner-up last time out a fortnight ago over course and distance. She wasn't beaten by far and with a little improvement could easily go one better. The booking of Frankie Dettori, therefore, is a positive move in that direction.

The mercurial Italian is in good touch recently, winning 3 of 6 races over the last week, as well as being 30 from 136 (22.1% SR) for 90.8pts (+66.8% ROI) on the Rowley track over the last seasons.

So, jockey box ticked, let's look at the filly herself and the following achievements should stand her in good stead today...

  • 4 wins & a place from 9 runs this year
  • 4 + 1 from 6 in fields of 5 to 10 runners
  • 4 + 1 from 5 over 11 to 12 furlongs
  • 2 +1 from 4 on good ground
  • 2 wins from 4 within 8-15 days of her last run
  • 3 from 3 at odds of 3/1 and shorter
  • 2 + 1 from 3 over 1m 4f
  • 2 + 1 from 3 going right handed
  • 2 from 2 as favourite
  • and 1 from 2 at Class 2

And now, her trainer Roger Charlton...whose Flat handicappers over a mile and half are 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 17.95pts (+112.2% ROI) this year, including...

  • 3 yr olds @ 5/13 (38.5%) for 10pts (+76.9%)
  • on Good ground : 3/7 (42.9%) for 13.88pts (+198.3%)
  • and at Class 2 : 3/4 (75%) for 18.88pts (+472.1%)

and since the start of 2010, his runners priced at 4/1 and shorter running 4 to 15 days after a top 3 finish are 46/99 (46.5% SR) for 26.1pts (+26.4% ROI) with the following of particular relevance here...

  • on the Flat : 34/72 (47.2%) for 20.9pts (+29%)
  • in handicaps : 32/69 (46.4%) for 19.75pts (+28.6%)
  • females are 19/40 (47.5%) for 17.67pts (+44.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 15/28 (53.6%) for 14.28pts (+51%)
  • and here on the Rowley : 1/2 (50%) for 2.07pts (+103.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Cribbs Causeway @ 9/4 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.30pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th August 2017

Friday's Result :

5.30 Catterick - Sellingallthetime @ 9/2 BOG - 2nd at 5/1 : Held up mid-division, headway over 4f out to chase leaders, went 3rd over 2f out, kept on to chase winner inside final furlong, held towards finish...

Saturday's pick goes in the...

5.05 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stone The Crows @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

An unexposed 3 yr old gelding with just 5 starts to his name and after finishing 4th on debut, has been ridden by today's jockey, 3lb claimer Kieran Shoemark, in all four subsequent runs, making the frame each time (1 win and 3 x 2nd). So they clearly get on, he 's in obvious good nick and now drops down in class to run here for trainer Roger Charlton, who..

...has an excellent record in Flat handicaps over 1m1f to 1m4f over the past three seasons, clocking up 29 winners from 105 (27.6% SR) runners for level stakes profits of 47.1pts or £4.48 profit from every £10 wagered. With today's contest in mind, those 105 runners can be further categorised as follows..

  • 3 yr olds are 27/89 (30.3%) for 55.2pts (+62.1%)
  • those with just 3 to 7 previous career runs (ie some experience but not exposed) are 25/81 (30.9%) for 57.2pts (+70.6%)
  • those finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO are 16/44 (36.4%) for 37.9pts (+86%)
  • Class 4 runners are 11/34 (32.4%) for 47.9pts (+140.9%)
  • on Good ground, they are 11/31 (35.5%) for 46.2pts (+149.1%)
  • those ridden by Kieran Shoemark are 9/25 (36%) for 5.9pts (+23.6%)
  • and those dropping down a class are 6/16 (37.5%) for 10.4pts (+65.2%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Stone The Crows @ 3/1 BOG which was available with Bet365 , Betfred, Sunbets and Totesport at 6.05pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th July 2017

Tuesday's Result :

8.20 Stratford : No Such Number @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/1 Led to 2 out, then faded badly, last home.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Kempton...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Clowance One3/1 BOG

Why?

Roger Charlton's horses are going well, winning 11 of 45 (24.2% SR) over the past month and 6 from 20 (30%) over the last couple of weeks and he now runs a 5 yr old gelding who was only beaten by a head twice into third place when last seen a week ago, also on this track and under today's jockey Kieran Shoemark.

Roger's stayers (1m7.5f to 2m0.5f) are 7 from 13 (53.8% SR) for 37pts (+284.6% ROI) profit over the last three years, from which...

  • males : 6/11 (54.5%) for 35.85pts (+325.9%)
  • handicaps : 6/7 (85.7%) for 33.06pts (+472.3%)
  • on A/W : 3/4 (75%) for 17pts (+425%)
  • Kempton : 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.87pts (+495.6%)
  • Class 3 : 2/2 (100%) for 7pts (+350%)

And in addition to the above, since 2010, his runners priced at 4/1 and shorter turned back out just 4-15 days after a 2nd or 3rd placed finish are 24/47 (51.1% SR) for 24.6pts (+52.3% ROI) profit and these 47 include...

  • handicappers @ 12/23 (52.2%) for 19.7pts (+85.8%)
  • A/W runners @ 6/14 (42.9%) for 5.9pts (+42.2%)
  • 4-7 days since last run = 4/5 (80%) for 7.46pts (+149.2%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.82pts (+94%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Clowance One3/1 BOG which was available in a half dozen or so places at 5.55pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Kempton...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2015

Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2015

Thursday's Result :

8.55 Chelmsford : Slovak @ 100/30 BOG : WON at 9/4 (Made all, ridden over 1f out, soon hung right, kept on well)

Friday's selection runs in the...

4.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wheat Sheaf @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old was last seen going down by a short head as a runner-up at Wolverhampton 10 days ago and now not only steps up a grade, but is also asked to go an extra 2 furlongs for his third handicap start, making him of interest for a couple of reasons.

  1. Since the start of 2009, Roger Charlton's horses who finished 2nd or 3rd last time out and then reappear 4 to 15 days later, have gone on to win 27 of 71 races with that 38% strike rate generating 43.5pts profit at an ROI of 61.3%, with those beaten by less than four lengths LTO winning 25 of 63 (39.7% SR) for 46.1pts (+73.2% ROI).
  2. And in that same 2009-15 time frame, Roger's 3 yr old handicappers running at the same class or within 1 class (up or down!) of their last run, but are stepped up in trip by at least 2 furlongs and have made less than 5 handicap starts are 14 from 66 (21.2% SR) for 29.7pts (+45% ROI).

    Of those runners, the ones with less than 3 previous hcp runs are 12/56 (21.4% SR) for 24.3pts (+43.4% ROI) and those running at trips of 1m to 1m3.5f are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 34.2pts (+103.8% ROI).

And my recommended bet?

1pt win on Wheat Sheaf at 7/2 BOG with either of Hills or Paddy Power, but if you need to see what the other firms are offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

SotD, Monday 20th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2015

I was at a function on Friday evening that dragged on into the small hours of Saturday, so thankfully Matt stepped into the breech for us to ensure no loss of service.

When I logged in at lunchtime for quick peek at his pick, I was more than happy to back it myself based on stats and form and was surprised to see him put up a bit of a "no-show".

He was held in mid-division for a run that never materialised, leaving many people scratching their heads. I say many people, because he was very well backed in from Matt's advised 6/1 BOG to being sent off as the 9/4 favourite and whilst none of us like backing losers, if we continue to back horses at more than double the SP, we're on the right path to profit.

From a typically busy and tricky Saturday, we're back on Mundane Mondays, where quality is in short supply, but I'm very hopeful of one in the...

6.50 Windsor :

A 10 furlong, Class 5 Maiden for 3/4 yr olds and being a maiden, there's no winning form to consider, which must make the pair of runner-up finishes achieved by Ataman the best on offer.

Ataman is trained by Roger Charlton, whose horses are going really well again at the moment and in the last month his runners are 7/31 (22.6% SR), whilst in the last two months they are 16/71 (22.5% SR), so there's some consistency there too. George Baker, who rides Ataman today, is 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 2.5pts (+22.4% ROI) on the Charlton string in the past two months.

Roger Charlton has a long-term 17% strike rate here at Windsor, but rather than rely on past glories, let's consider more relevant and recent results. Since the start of the 2012 campaign, he is 14/79 (17.7% SR) for 50pts (+63.3% ROI).

George Baker is no mug around these parts either, though and in the last five seasons has ridden 28 winners from 143 (19.6% SR) for 123.4pts (+86.3% ROI) here at Windsor with a record of 7/34 (20.6% SR) for 35.2pts (+103.7% ROI) in maidens and a record on 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 19.7pts (+151.3% ROI) on Roger Charlton's horses.

As we said earlier, there's no winning form to refer back to, but Ataman has finished as a runner-up on both starts to date. His first run was 10 weeks ago here at Windsor over today's course and distance where he was possibly held up a little too long before running on late in the piece.

He then reappeared at Wolverhampton three weeks ago stepped up in trip by 2f and was game in defeat, but was headed with just over a furlong to go and although he was eventually beaten by almost 4 lengths, he was 17 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

The winner that day, Who Dares Wins, has since run and won again (Salisbury, 9 days ago) and it is expected that with further improvement and a drop back in trip, that today will be Ataman's day. I certainly hope so, because I've just backed him at 3/1 BOG with Bet365 whilst the same price is offered by Betfair's Sportsbook, BetVictor, 10Bet and Paddy Power.

For a full market overview...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2015

I was at a function on Friday evening that dragged on into the small hours of Saturday, so thankfully Matt stepped into the breech for us to ensure no loss of service.

When I logged in at lunchtime for quick peek at his pick, I was more than happy to back it myself based on stats and form and was surprised to see him put up a bit of a "no-show".

He was held in mid-division for a run that never materialised, leaving many people scratching their heads. I say many people, because he was very well backed in from Matt's advised 6/1 BOG to being sent off as the 9/4 favourite and whilst none of us like backing losers, if we continue to back horses at more than double the SP, we're on the right path to profit.

From a typically busy and tricky Saturday, we're back on Mundane Mondays, where quality is in short supply, but I'm very hopeful of one in the...

Your first 30 days for just £1

6.50 Windsor :

A 10 furlong, Class 5 Maiden for 3/4 yr olds and being a maiden, there's no winning form to consider, which must make the pair of runner-up finishes achieved by Ataman the best on offer.

Ataman is trained by Roger Charlton, whose horses are going really well again at the moment and in the last month his runners are 7/31 (22.6% SR), whilst in the last two months they are 16/71 (22.5% SR), so there's some consistency there too. George Baker, who rides Ataman today, is 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 2.5pts (+22.4% ROI) on the Charlton string in the past two months.

Roger Charlton has a long-term 17% strike rate here at Windsor, but rather than rely on past glories, let's consider more relevant and recent results. Since the start of the 2012 campaign, he is 14/79 (17.7% SR) for 50pts (+63.3% ROI).

George Baker is no mug around these parts either, though and in the last five seasons has ridden 28 winners from 143 (19.6% SR) for 123.4pts (+86.3% ROI) here at Windsor with a record of 7/34 (20.6% SR) for 35.2pts (+103.7% ROI) in maidens and a record on 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 19.7pts (+151.3% ROI) on Roger Charlton's horses.

As we said earlier, there's no winning form to refer back to, but Ataman has finished as a runner-up on both starts to date. His first run was 10 weeks ago here at Windsor over today's course and distance where he was possibly held up a little too long before running on late in the piece.

He then reappeared at Wolverhampton three weeks ago stepped up in trip by 2f and was game in defeat, but was headed with just over a furlong to go and although he was eventually beaten by almost 4 lengths, he was 17 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

The winner that day, Who Dares Wins, has since run and won again (Salisbury, 9 days ago) and it is expected that with further improvement and a drop back in trip, that today will be Ataman's day. I certainly hope so, because I've just backed him at 3/1 BOG with Bet365 whilst the same price is offered by Betfair's Sportsbook, BetVictor, 10Bet and Paddy Power.

For a full market overview...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 27th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th June 2015

So, it became a case of going back from the ridiculous of Wilde Inspiration's poor run on Thursday to the sublime of the facile victory achieved by Secateur at Newmarket on Friday evening.

He made all, Frankie barely laid a glove on him, shook the reins a bit with two furlongs to go and that was that. He was in such command that they passed  the post at little more than a trotting pace and still won by 4.5 lengths.

It was a truly imperious performance, further enhanced by us getting 7/2 about a 3/1 winner, because every little helps (so the guys at Tesco tell us!).

Saturday is the usual feast of racing before the famine of Sundays (that issue needs addressing IMO, but that's for another time!) and we're off to the Queen's backyard for the...

3.55 Windsor:

And not the usual type of race I target, but there are some compelling stats surrounding the 5yr old gelding, Huntmans Close in this 15-runner, Class 2 handicap over six furlongs on Windsor's usual good to firm ground.

He's trained by Roger Charlton...

...whose horses are going really well again, winning six of twenty-five (24% SR) in the past fortnight and in the last five seasons, his runners are 16/89 (18% SR) for 49.2pts (+55.3% ROI) here at Windsor.

His handicappers are 9/42 (21.4% SR) for 58.1pts (+138.4% ROI) here on this track whilst those running over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs are 16/73 (21.9% SR) for 65.2pts (+89.3% ROI).

If you put the two together, you get a record of 9/31 (29% SR) for 69.1pts (+223% ROI) from the Charlton 'cappers running here over 6 to 10 furlongs, with those priced at 5/2 to 6/1 winning 6 of 25 (24% SR) for 11.9pts at an ROI of 47.6%.

James Doyle takes the ride today...

And James has a good record on the Charlton string, especially in the better quality of races than the daily bread and butter. In Classes 1 to 4 contestest, the partnership has 47 wins from 273 rides, a 17.2% strike rate that has generated level stakes profits of 19.4% at a modest ROI of 7.1%.

Now whilst this ROI is on the low side for SotD purposes, that's from blind backing and any stat that produces blind profit from so many runners is not only a valid stat, but also an excellent starting point for a niche micro.

And of those 273 runners, competing over 6 to 10 furlongs are 38/211 (18% SR) for 40.6pts (+19.2% ROI) and those priced at 15/8 to 9/1 are 40/164 (24.4% SR) for 59.2pts (+36.1% ROI) with those running over 6 to 10 furlongs at 15/8 to 9/1 winning 33 of 130 (25.4% SR) for 57.4pts at an ROI of 44.1%. The duo are also 3/10 for 8.61pts here at Windsor under those conditions.

Huntmans Close was well fancied for last Saturday's Wokingham Stakes at nearby Royal Ascot, but let's just be diplomatic and say he had some attitude issues which led to him being withdrawn. It's quite possibly that the occasion got to him on the day, as he has been very well behaved in the past, but the fact he was likely to go off as favourite in such a large-field valuable race tells you all about his ability.

Prior to the non-running at Ascot, he was only beaten by a short head at Newmarket coming off a break of 225 days since winning the Ayr Silver Cup to close out his 2014 campaign, a race that has produced 14 victories to date.

That win followed by a narrow defeat alerts me to a micro system I follow on the Flat over trips of 5 to 10 furlongs with horses aged 3 to 5 yrs old. What I look for is horses finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out 16 to 60 days ago, as long as they had won their penultimate race and in the last four years there have already been 1552 such horses!

267 of the 1552 have turned to winning way for a second victory in three runs with the resultant 17.2% strike rate yielding profits of 160.4pts at an ROI of 10.4%, again an excellent return from blindly backing on average 400 runners per season!

I appreciate you might not want that many bets from one sytem per year and with the dataset being so large, there is a myriad of ways to break the sample size down. For reasons of time, space, my sanity and not wishing to bore you too much, I'll just put the 1552 runners into the perspective of today's race...

  • Class 1 to 4 runners are 165/950 (17.4% SR) for 159.1pts (+16.8% ROI)
  • Those beaten by less than 2 lengths LTO are 132/750 (17.6% SR) for 89.9pts (+12% ROI)
  • 5yr olds are 34/196 (17.4% SR) for 38.4pts (+19.6% ROI)

Not only does Huntmans Close fit that brief above, he's a former course and distance winner here under James Doyle and proved he handles quick ground by winning that Ayr Silver Cup last season on good to firm ground. He tends to fare best on flat straight tracks and doesn't generally get fazed by competing in large fields.

I'm happy to put last week's shenanigans down as a one-off and I'm putting my shilling on Huntmans Close at 4/1 BOG with Bet365, with at least three other firms matching that price. A fuller picture of the market can be obtained by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 3.55 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2015

Go Sakhee was the filling in a 3-horse sandwich at a vital point of Monday evening's contest and had to break his momentum at a time he needed to be picking up the tempo.

I doubt whether he had enough left in his locker after running a bit too freely early on, but I'd have thought he'd have been closer to the eventual winner than the near-5 length margin of defeat he actually suffered.

I don't agree with the "expert" on ATR who suggested he'd ran poorly, but I suspect the guy was talking through his pocket, having tipped the horse just before the off. 4th place at 11/4 (adv 100/30) wasn't the result we wanted, but it was far from poor.

We now go again in the...

3.25 Salisbury:

A Class 5 handicap for 3 yr olds over 5f on good to firm ground, where I've just taken 9/2 BOG about Roger Charlton's in-form filly Star Fire, who seeks a second win in three starts this season.

Roger's horses are running well, if not spectacularly at present, but a 6 from 34 (17.6% SR) record over the past month is creditable enough, as is his 14/86 record here at Salisbury since 2009. That 16.3% strike rate has yielded 8.7pts of level stakes profit at a modest but useful ROI of 10.1% with the horses priced at 2/1 to 9/1 winning 10 of 46 (21.7% SR) for 19.3pts at a much more palatable 42% ROI.

Jockey George Baker is also going well. Aside from winning Monday's SotD race, he's 4/15 in the past week and 21/112 ( 18.75% SR) in the past two months, which is consistently good. Since the start of the 2013 season, he has ridden 7 winners from his 41 rides (17.1% SR) here at Salisbury for profits of 16pts at an attractive ROI of 39%, of which...

  • he's 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 33.5pts (+185.8% ROI) at Class 5
  • he's 4/22 (18.2% SR) in handicaps
  • and at odds of 7/1 and shorter here, he is 6 from 20 (30% SR) for 12.5pts at an ROI of 62.4%.

Since 2011, the Baker / Charlton partnership is worth 34 winners from 163 rides, marginally better than 1-in-5 at 20.9% and in Class 5 handicaps with horses priced at 2/1 to 6/1, they are 4/12 (33.33% SR) for 9pts (+75% ROI) profit.

Star Fire is also a qualifier from a micro-system I use that I call 1-2/3/4. Basically horses that won two starts ago (ie 1) followed by a 2nd to 4th finish last out (2/3/4!). There are, of course, more rules to it than that, but that's just the starting point.

Such horses aged 3 to 5 running at trips of 5f to 10f on the flat and whose 2/3/4 run was 16 to 60 days ago are 255/1486 (17.2% SR) for 162.8pts at an ROI of 11%. To refine that large dataset into a more manageable size and something more relevant to this race, we can look at those now competing over 5 to 7 furlongs at Classes 4 to 6, where we have 75 winners from 349 (21.5% SR) runners and 166.1pts profit at an ROI of 47.6% to date.

Star Fire found Goodwood a little too sharp last time out and the return to an easier/galloping track and a 2lb easing in her mark should help her return to the form shown at Nottingham two starts ago. She's currently available in most places at 4/1 BOG, but the standout price you should try to get is the 9/2 BOG from Paddy Power. That's what I've taken and you can check if that's still the case by...

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Stat of the Day, 13th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th May 2015

We did pretty well out of one of our rare forays to Ireland for SotD on Tuesday evening, as our 4/1 shot Sacrificial won at an SP of 9/4.

The official margin was a neck, but I think our boy had enough in reserve to win by further had he wanted to, despite conceding bundles of weight all round. A win is nice, but to get paid out at 178% of SP is even better and I really can't stress the importance of getting the BOG prices.

I know that you probably didn't all get that 4/1, but there still plenty of 7/2 until around 9.45am and 10/3 until lunchtime.

Wednesday sees us back in England for the...

5.45 Bath:

And a 7/2 BOG bet with the Betfair Sportsbook for the 4yr old gelding maiden of 7 races Elite Force.

Elite Force is trained by Roger Charlton and Roger's handicap record here at bath is 17 winners from 64 (26.6% SR) for 18.2pts at SP, and we never back as low as SP! SP does, however, still return an ROI of 23.8% and we know we can better that with BOG prices.

At trips of 8 to 13 furlongs, Roger's handicappers are 11/42 (26.2% SR) for 20.2pts (+48.1% ROI) here, of which those running at this Class 5 level are 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 19.9pts (+82.9% ROI).

Richard Hughes takes the ride today and this is a positive sign for me, as he rarely rides the Charlton horses. In fact since 2010, he has only ridden in 15 handicaps for Mr Charlton, but has won 5 times (33.3% SR) for 25pts profit at an ROI of 166.7%! There's obviously a big winner in there skewing the data, so with a simple odds cap of 5/1, we have 4 winners from 9 (44.4% SR) and 3.34pts (+37.1% ROI) profit : still very useful.

Hughesie also rides the Bath track well, having won 22 of 81 handicap races (27.2% SR) here since the start of the 2010 season, generating level stakes profits of 39.3pts at an ROI of 48.6% along the way. And when sent off in the 2/1 to 9/1 price range, he is 18/61 (29.5% SR) for 49.8pts (+81.6% ROI).

Elite Force was a close runner-up LTO, beaten by just a length and three quarters at Wolverhampton fifteen days ago, making him just qualify for my Top4 LTO microsystem. Basically certain trainers do well when sending a horse back out within 15 days of a top 4 finish last time out and Roger Charlton is one of them.

His top 4 LTO runners are 40/136 (29.4% SR) for 27.8pts (+20.4% ROI) since 2009 and those who failed to win last time, but were beaten by less than 4 lengths went on to win 23 of 61 (37.7% SR) subsequent outings for profits of 57.1pts (+93.7% ROI).

As of 9.15pm on Tuesday evening the 7/2 BOG offered by Betfair Sportsbook about Elite Force was the best available with 3/1 BOG seeming the generally offered odds. You can see what your preferred outlet has on the book by...

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Stat of the Day, 4th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2014

A strange, but very profitable night for me at Kempton last night. I had one of those evening where everything I backed was winning, but with each victory, the spectre of Sod's law loomed ever larger in my mind. And when Baltic Prince won the penultimate race on the card after coming very close to being the SotD pick, I thought it might be another of those days where I went with the wrong one, such has my luck/form been of late.

I hadn't, of course, factored in how gutsy New Rich proved to be and also what an absolutely brilliant ride John Fahy gave the horse. Much closer to the back than the front of the final bend, they swept round the outside picking off runners as they went, before hitting the front inside the final furlong to score by a length.

John Fahy judged it to perfection and I breathed a sigh of relief. Even better news came with a 9/2 BOG payout on a 7/2 winner and so today it's almost same time, same place as we tackle the...

7.15 Kempton:

And an interesting-looking 3/1 BOG bet on Roger Charlton's lightly-raced, 3 yr old handicap debutant Chauvelin, who steps up in trip from 8.5 furlongs to a mile and a half to compete in this Class 5, 3yo+ handicap off a reasonable opening mark of 67.

Chauvelin is by Sir Percy and is a brother to Van Percy who has been more than useful in winning Class 2 handicap over 1m4f and 1m6f, suggesting that this step up in trip will suit today. In fact, you can just back all Sir Percy's offspring and make a nice profit. His progeny have so far won 143 of their 1102 (13% SR) races and have generated level stakes profits of 272pts at an ROI of 24.7%.

Those running over 10 to 13 furlongs are 60/370 (16.2% SR) for 470.4pts (+127.1% ROI), of which there is a 28/95 (29.5% SR) record at odds of 9/4 to 5/1, with associated profit of 44.1pts (+46.4% ROI).

Sir Percy's offspring have also won 45 of the 226 races (19.9% SR) off an official mark ranging from 60 to 100 and these winners have amassed 510.4pts profit to date; an ROI of 225.9%. More realistically for our purposes, those priced between 9/4 & 5/1 are 21 from 68 (30.9% SR) for 36.6pts at an ROI of 53.8%

Today is Chauvelin's fourth start, after three maiden contests where his record reads 265 over inadequately short trips, but three year olds who were unplaced last time out and are now running in handicap races of 1m3.5f to 1m4.5f, stepping up in trip by 2 to 5 furlongs have won 91 times from 592 attempts (15.4% SR) since the start of 2011. These 91 winners have helped punters to register level stakes profits of 75.6pts (+12.8% ROI)

Those figures are marginally better at this lower end of quality with a record of 85/535 (15.6% SR) for 72.5pts (+13.6% ROI) in class 4 to 6 races.

Roger Charlton also likes to step his unexposed handicappers up in trip and since 2008 with horses running at the same class or down a grade stepping up by 2 to 4 furlongs with no more than 4 previous handicap outings, Roger has 10 winners from 49 (20/4% SR) and profits of 34.6pts (+70.5% ROI).

Of those runners, the record with handicap debutants is 5.23 (21.7% SR) for 23.2pts at an ROI of 101%.

This doesn't look a tough race and Chauvelin is bred to stay this trip and beyond and I suppose the only issue is whether he'll take to the surface. The market seems to think he has a very good chance, which possibly says more about the standard of his opposition which is why we're only able to place our 1pt win bet on Chauvelin at 3/1 BOG with Paddy Power. You can also get 3/1 from BetVictor, but our runner is already as low as 9/4 in parts, as you'll see if you...

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Stat of the Day, 19th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2014

Some days I get it right and some days I get it wrong. I hold my hands up and say I got it wrong at Doncaster on Tuesday.

I thought Shadows lengthen was a decent value bet at 5/1 and that he'd be a serious contender to win. He actually drifted all day and was sent off at 9/1 and ran accordingly. He was held up for a run and when asked for an effort, it didn't last long before he had to be ridden before capitulating tamely.

He eventually finished 5th of 9, almost 20 lengths off the pace and I expect better in Wednesday's...

6.25 Kempton:

Trainer Roger Charlton is having a decent time of it on the All-Weather this year, notching up 14 winners from 62 runners (22.6% SR) and has generated 33.1pts (+53.3% ROI) level stakes profits in the process.

He's also modestly profitable to follow blindly here at Kempton with 21 winners from 158 (13.3% SR) producing 20.3pts profit at an ROI of 12.9% since the start of 2010.

Roger's sole runner at this track today, Captain Cat, will be ridden by James Doyle, who is also having a good year on the sand, winning 41 of 179 races (22.9% SR) for 62.5pts (+34.9% ROI) with a 23/106 (21.7% SR) record here at Kempton. James has been particularly successful at the sharper end of the market here this year winning 17 of 35 races (48.6% SR) when his mount has been in the Evens to 9/2 bracket, where we're sure to be playing today. That excellent 17/35 record has given rise to level stakes profits of 25.2pts at an ROI of 72%.

Yet, although both jockey and trainer have good stats behind them , the real focus of today's piece has to be the horse, Captain Cat, who has a great set of figures behind to back up the selection today.

  • He has a record of 1221 on the All-Weather (21 here at Kempton).
  • He has five wins and five places from 13 runs over today's trip, including a course and distance win.
  • He has won three of the eight races ridden by James Doyle and made the frame in four of the five defeats.
  • He has three wins and two places from six races of 12-15 runners.
  • He has won four times and placed four times from 9 runs in the last year.

His only failure to make the frame in the last year was a creditable 5th place finish when beaten by 4 lengths on the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot and he clearly sets the standard here today. This is a drop in quality for him here, having been racing successfully at Group level for his last five contests.

There's not actually much more to add about Captain Cat, other than to say I'd take the 3/1 BOG on offer from Betfair's Sportsbook whilst you can, as 11/4 BOG seems to be the norm elsewhere as you'll see when you...

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Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2014

Thursday's run had some similarities with that of Wednesday's selection. Both had travelled well and looked well set to mount a serious challenge in the latter stages. Both had jumped well without any real issues, but both made one critical error from which there was no way back.

On Wednesday, our hopes were dashed 2 from home and Tidal Bay went three from home on Thursday. He cleared the hurdle well enough, but stumbled on landing, his head went down and his jockey hit the deck!

I'd imagine the only people smiling were the bookies after our runner had been well backed in to 7/4, quite a bit shorter than the teatime 6/1 and the 5/2 we took.

In a bid to keep a horse on its feet, I'm going back to the Flat for a Class 3 handicap over 2 miles on decent (Gd to Firm) ground and the...

4.50 Ascot:

And the Roger Charlton-trained, 4yr old gelding Quest For More, who currently trades at 13/2 BOG.

Roger has a good long-term & short-term record here at Ascot...

Since 2003, 22 of his 118 runners at this track have been winners with the resultant 18.6% strike rate giving rise to level stakes profits of 60.6pts at an ROI of 51.4%. Those numbers are very good over a long period of time, but are even better in handicap races where he has saddled up 13 winners from 76 (21.9% SR) for 68.2pts (+89.7% ROI).

Quoting figures for such a large chunk of time, it's forgivable to question whether the results are skewed by a couple of freak years a decade ago, so to balance this, I feel it's important to look at more recent performance, where we find that in the last three seasons, Roger's horses have won 9 of 36 (25% SR) races for 19.8pts (+55.1% ROI) with handicaps once again providing improved returns with 5 winners from 18 (27.8% SR) for 14.9pts (+82.6% ROI).

The recent figures are pretty similar to the overall picture, so I'm happy to take them as being valid reasoning today.

Quest For More drops down in class today...

Since 2008, Roger has dropped 134 runners down in class for flat handicap contests. 30 of the 134 (22.4% SR) have won on dropping down, producing level stakes profits of 96.3pts, or 71.8% of stakes, whilst those dropping down to today's Class 3 level are 8/39 (20.5% SR) for 34.7pts (+89.1% ROI).

Quest For More steps back up in trip by a couple of furlongs today and Roger's class droppers who have been asked to run 2 furlongs further than their last higher class run have gone on to win 4 of 10 races (450% SR) for 17.9pts (+178.6% ROI).

Quest For More is Roger's only runner today...

I suppose there's increased pressure on a trainer to justify the costs associated with sending out horses to run and if costs can be shared, all the better. Solo runners, therefore, are more draining on resources and it's important to get a return from their outings. This is an area where Mr Charlton also does well, as since 2008 there has been 136 occasions where he has been represented by just the flat handicapper on that given day.

40 of these 136 solo runners (29.4% SR) have been winners and the level stakes profits of 51.4pts at an ROI of 37.8% is more than enough to cover the price of diesel even at today's prices! Of those 136 runners, the record with horses priced below 12/1 is 39 winners from 115 (33.9% SR) for 53.7pts (+46.7% ROI). Class 3 runners priced below 12/1 have gone on to win 7 of 19 (36.8% SR) races, clocking up an impressive 27.1pts (+142.6% ROI) along the way.

Quest For More was only narrowly beaten on his last attempt at this trip, two starts ago. He finished half a length behind the winner in much better contest (Class 2) than this at York, where he stayed on strongly and had 14 other runners behind him. His run last time out can be excused, where on the face of it 12th of 16 runners and beaten by 9.5 lengths doesn't look good, but there are mitigating circumstances.

That was the Old Borough Cup, an even better standard of Class 2 race than the York contest and in an attempt to remain competitive over a shorter trip, jockey Pat Smullen (riding the horse for the first time) sent him off too quickly and he couldn't sustain the pace, dropping back through the pack, as the race unfolded. That race was the first time in a year (and 8 races) that he's failed to at least make the first three home in a run of results reading 13331220 with the 0 being that Haydock run.

Aside from that failure at Haydock, his record in flat handicaps reads 1133122, so he's very consistent, he is 41122 on good to firm ground and his best runs have come in these smaller fields. He's reunited with jockey George Baker today and George has a record of 4132 on this horse and arrives here in pretty good form of his own, having ridden nine winners from 31 starts in the last fortnight.

If bouncing back to the form of his York outing, Quest For More stands more than a fighting chance at a decent price here. He's currently available at 13/2 BOG in a couple of places and you could quite easily back him each way, but I think I'll'resist that temptation today.

I'm not chasing the big winner to get October off the mark, but there are only 8 runners here and with the recent spate of non-runners at the end of a tiring season, I can see one of the more fancied horses not turning out. This then leads to another Rule 4 deduction and only 2 places getting paid out and the possibility that a runner-up finish won't cover the win stake.

So, each to their own, of course, but the SotD record will read as a 1pt win bet on Quest For More at 13/2 BOG with SkyBet. The same price is available from BetVictor & Hills, whilst he's as low as 9/2 in places! You can see all this clearly laid out, if you just...

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The Newmarket Backend Trainers with a 41.98% ROI

Roge is in blinding form right now...

Roge is in blinding form right now...

The Cambridgeshire meeting, running from today through until Saturday, forms part of a clutch of meetings at Newmarket between now and the end of the season. It may pay to note the quintet of trainers in this post, who have all historically punched well above their weight from September onwards at flat racing's HQ.

Charlie Appleby

Having only taken over from the disgraced Mahmood al Zarooni, himself a late season Newmarket demon, at the start of last season, Appleby has continued to pump out the winners in similar vein.

Indeed, in his first season last year, he ran twenty horses, winning with seven of them, for a return of 21.98 units at SP (26.4 BSP). It should be noted that the yard is in excellent fettle right now, and I have a fair fancy for one of theirs this afternoon (Billingsgate).

It might be pertinent to note that all seven of Appleby's winners in the sample were 2yo's, from fourteen of that age group to face the starter.

Appleby's Newmarket entries this week:

Today
2.00 Chorus Of Lies
4.50 Billingsgate

Friday
1.40 Zibelena
3.15 Outstrip
3.45 Penglai Pavilion

Saturday
2.00 Pulcinella
4.25 Serene Beauty

--

Jim Bolger

An Irish raider, Bolger loves to stake a claim for some of the big late season juvenile events, a tactic he's deployed to great effect for a generation. In the period in question - 2010+ - his record is three from eleven with a further two placed, for an SP profit of 14.8 points (BSP +18.83).

Bolger's score card was bolstered by 20/1 Parish Hall, but he also added Dawn Approach and Trading Leather to his win tally. Expect any of his winners here to be well above average. Note that Bolger also had placed horses at 14/1 and 33/1, and a third of six (so unplaced, just) also at 33/1. They don't come over for the break, it would appear.

Bolger's Newmarket entries this week:

Friday
2.40 Lucida

Your first 30 days for just £1

--

Roger Charlton

The boss of Beckhampton has a tremendous record at Newmarket in late season over the past few years, with six winners and three placed from 29 runners. Those winners accrued 17.75 units of starting price profit (24.43 BSP), and hit at a rate of better than one in five.

Charlton has the likeable Captain Cat entered tomorrow, amongst others.

Charlton's Newmarket entries this week:

Tomorrow
3.15 Captain Cat
5.00 Border Legend

Saturday
5.35 High Church

--

John Gosden

No review of Newmarket trainers would be complete without an entry for Johnny G. He is a master of his craft, and he regularly demonstrates that at his local course. If there is a problem with following the yard blindly it is one of volume: Gosden runs a lot of horses at Newmarket late season.

In fact, since 2010, he's run 122 horses from September to the end of the season, hauling in 18 winners and a profit of 37.12 units at starting price (62.4 BSP). As that SP/BSP disparity implies, Gosden has scored with big priced horses. In fact, it might be surprising to discover that he's had four 20/1 winners in the sample, including Taghrooda last year.

And, for whatever reason - most likely coincidence - Gosden has scored with just two of his 54 horses priced between 9/2 and 12/1 in that time. With just three from 37 three-year-olds notching, they might be a group to cast an accusing eye upon.

Gosden's Newmarket entries this week:

Today
2.00 Tempus Temporis
2.00 Secateur
4.15 Flying Officer

Friday
1.40 Belle d'Or
2.10 Criteria
3.15 Wannabe Yours
3.45 Nabucco
4.25 Nota Cambiata
5.00 Gm Hopkins

Saturday
3.10 Tendu
3.50 Maverick Wave
3.50 Cornrow
4.25 Jazzi Top
4.25 Entertainment

--

Roger Varian

Roger Varian is the man of the late season so far, claiming the Group 1 St Leger and then nabbing the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes the next day. He's in flying form generally just now, and is included more on that basis than his overall profit of 6.33 (13.15 BSP) from 48 runners and eight winners.

It might be worth noting that Varian tends to only strike when expected at Newmarket at this time of year, as all of his winners have been priced 12/1 or shorter, eliminating eleven of the initial 48 superset.

Varian's Newmarket entries this week:

Today
2.00 Tawaasheeh

Friday
2.10 Familliarity
2.40 Tigrilla
3.45 Ayrad
5.00 Miguel Grau

Saturday
4.25 Skip And Jump
4.25 Bella Lulu

**

Collectively, that quintet of hot handlers has run 231 horses at Newmarket from September until the end of the season since 2010. They've bagged 42 pots between them (18.18% of two-in-eleven), and have recorded profit at starting price of 96.98 points, which ramps up to 144.2 points at Betfair Starting Price.

There's little doubt that this Fabulous Five will have winners this week, and continue to do so at HQ in the coming weeks. I wouldn't go so far as to suggest blindly backing their runners, but give all of them at least a second thought when poring through the Newmarket cards.

Good luck!

Matt

p.s. thanks a lot for all the interest in the writer/developer opportuntities. I'm not accepting any more applicants at this time.

Stat of the Day, 28th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th June 2014

Alpine Storm would have been a cracking E/W bet on Friday evening, as she finished 3rd at 15/2. Unfortunately we'd already gone "all-in" at 4/1 before a deterioration of the weather/going led to a serious drift in price.

The horse really didn't settle at all and it was testimony to the jockey's ability that he got her in the placings, but by the time the penny had dropped for her, the front two were long gone.

She did prove that she gets the trip and she'll be of interest in the future on firmer ground than this good to soft track she just faced. If (and it's a big if), she can learn to settle quicker, then she could well still win races. perhaps we'll see her in a hood next time out.

Late night action on the sand awaits us for Saturday's selection, which runs in the ...

8.30 Lingfield:

Where I've found us yet another handicap debutant in the shape of the unexposed Catadupa from the Roger Charlton yard. This filly by Selkirk has hinted at potential in her three starts to date, most notably when fourth behind three subsequent winners at Salisbury over today's trip.

Trainer Roger Charlton has had a great first half of 2014 on the all-weather track here at Lingfield with five of his ten runners coming home as winners. Three of the five "losers" finished second, giving a place strike rate of some 80%.

Today's jockey George Baker has ridden five of this year's ten runners, winning twice and finishing second twice with a 4th place his worst result.

Mr Charlton drops Catadupa down to Class 6 today, a tactic he has used to some effect over the last few years, as 33 of 161 handicap runners dropped in class have gone on to win. 33 from 161 represents a pretty decent 20.5% strike rate and the resulting 101.7pts profit are worth 63.2% of all stakes invested.

Those class droppers sent off at odds of between 2/1 and 14/1 proved most successful with 30 wins from 138 outings (21.7% SR) and 92.6pts profit for an ROI of 67.1%.

It might be of some interest to those of you who like an E/W bet to see that 48% of these runners have made the frame.

Catadupa is also stepping back up in trip to 1m4f today, the same trip as that decent fourth place finish at Salisbury, despite not liking the soft ground.

The Charlton team have a good record with younger unexposed horses dropping in class but stepping up in trip, a sort of strange balancing act I suppose, running further against weaker opposition, perhaps?

In fact, over the last six seasons, when the yard has run their 2 or 3 yr olds with less than 5 handicap runs under their belts at the same class or down one grade but up in trip from their last run, they've hit a 21.1% strike rate.

That's because 23 of 109 such horses have won, generating 77.2pts profit, or 70.8% of stakes invested. With the same 2/1 to 14/1 filter applied, the strike rate remains fairly constant at 21.2% (via a 18/85 record), but the ROI is increased substantially to 105.5%, thanks to level stakes profits of 89.7pts.

Once again, a 40% place strike rate is of interest/note to E/W players.

From the above 18/85 record: 8/29 for 50.23pts was achieved by those dropping in class, whilst those stepping up by 0.5f to 2f won 13 of 69 races for 51.7pts.

All of which gives a small, but ultimately successful group of horses who dropped in class but stepped up in trip by up to two furlongs. Five winners from twenty-two is a very healthy 22.7% record, as is the 153.2% ROI accrued via 33.7pts profit.

Despite there being 14 runners here, it really does look more like quantity over quality and I'm not convinced that this race will take much for our selection to prevail. At the current odds, there's plenty of scope for a safety-first E/W bet, but I remember the old saying, "Faint heart ne'er won fair lady" from my school days, so my play is a 1pt win bet on Catadupa at 7/1 BOG with Bet365, who are the first to open a book.

Feel free, of course to take the E/W route or to use another bookie. If you decide to go your own way, I recommend that you...

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