On we go, to the fourth day of five at Royal Ascot but the final day of our full preview coverage. I hope we've managed to add some fun - and maybe a winner or two - to your week. There have been some fireworks already and perhaps, if it's not being greedy, we can add to the pyrotechnics one more time...

 

N.B. Don't forget to check out our full Royal Ascot Friday trends page here.

 

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2.30 THE ALBANY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

6 of the last 7 winners had raced in the previous 30-34 day period and we have four fillies this year that fit the bill.

Two of the four finished 1st and 2nd in a Newmarket novice in the middle of May and it's the runner up that appeals the most due to her stable's previous notable record in the race. 

There were four maiden winners of this race between 2005 and 2011 with the last two being trained by the Channon yard who also won three of the first ten renewals of the Albany (the third of their three winners had been beaten under a length at the same Newmarket May meeting as the selection).

It was Andrew Balding's Jolivette that won that Newmarket race but fellow newcomer Topaz ran on really well to move into contention from the rear of the field as they entered the final furlong. She reeled in a number of challengers and kept on in eyecatching fashion without quite getting to Jolivette, who had got the first run on the field, and she had to settle for finishing a neck down at the line. Topaz entered a lot of notebooks for that run and she'll be winning races for a stable with previous pedigree with this type of filly.

She certainly doesn't deserve to be twice the price of the Newmarket winner and seems to offer a fair bit of value for a yard looking to reclaim former glories.

 

Suggestion: Try Topaz EW 25/1 (4 places)

 

 

 

Tix Pointers: All of the last 13 winners also won last time out; but plenty of big priced horses have made the frame. I'll be spreading out with last day winners.

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3.05 THE COMMONWEALTH CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

The newest Group 1 at the Royal meeting, the Commonwealth Cup has bridged a glaring gap for top class three-year-olds that either failed to stay the Guineas trip or were never intended to go that far.

Although fields are usually large, winners have tended to be lurking in the shallows: ten of the 11 winners to date were sent off 12/1 or shorter and in the top five (including joints) in the betting. Of course, lobbing a curveball, was last year's scorer, Time For Sandals at 25/1. She was a third filly to win the race from 45 starters; the fairer sex has a similar win rate but a better place rate and a much better PRB.

With 22 scheduled to go to post, it might be worth noting that the two longest priced winners were when the field size was 21+. Only the electric Campanelle was able to go gate to wire, eight of the 11 winners settling in the second half of the field through the early stages.

The best trials have been the Sandy Lane, the Carnarvon and the 2000 Guineas.

Venetian Sun won the Sandy Lane at Haydock last time having looked a non-stayer in the 1000 Guineas previously. As a juvenile she lowered Gstaad's colours in the G1 Prix Morny and is unbeaten at 6f or shorter. She'll be at peak fitness and was ultra-impressive last time out. The problem is that she's very short - 6/4 in a field of 22 for a Group 1.

Aidan O'Brien is naturally represented here, by the runner-up from the Carnarvon Stakes, Albert Einstein. He's not won above Group 3 level and there's no clear reason why he should reverse form on this more testing track with the re-opposing winner that day, Song Of The Clyde. Moreover, Aidan's record in the Commonwealth Cup is uncharacteristically average: just one win (Caravaggio) from 18 starters. He's had favourites sent off 5/6, 10/11, evens, 11/4 and 10/3 with only the aforementioned horse-named-after-a-painter getting it done, at 5/6. You don't need to be Einstein to figure that the Ballydoyle runner is a bit on the skinny side at 6/1.

Carnarvon winners are actually two from two in this, both Eqtidaar and Shaquille doubling up; that means Song Of The Clyde deserves at least a second squint. He was a rock solid juvenile, winning almost half a million quid courtesy of valuable sales races in which he won and ran second in fields of 21. He does tend to race prominently or on the lead and he'll need the far side rail to ride quicker than it has done in the early part of the week from his berth in 2, but he fits on form.

On the high side, Wesley Ward runs Outfielder, fourth (beaten 2.75L) in Venetian Sun's Morny and a winner of both starts Stateside this season. Fast turf is no issue to this dirt bred US speedster - he has two wins on firm over there - but a straight six with an uphill finish might be tough to sustain for a horse that wears his heart on his sleeve out front. Still, he'll likely offer a bold sight for backers and was still hanging tough with a furlong to go in the one mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last autumn (he really should have run in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, as I wrote at the time!).

Also high is the second Aidan arrow, Charles Darwin: Ballydoyle have really sent their top scientists to this one. Darwin was drawn similarly high when winning the five furlong Norfolk at this meeting last year and added a verdict over the extra furlong on debut in 2026. He clunked in a G3 last time, Ryan reporting he thought the horse had lost its action, and Wayne Lordan takes over now. Lordan has won five Group 1's since the beginning of last season, including both the Newmarket and Irish 1000 Guineas this spring. This son of No Nay Never was unbeaten in four prior to that last day glitch and gets first time blinkers here; he's a certain forward goer which, as mentioned, may not be a positive.

There is actually a ton of pace drawn high. As well as Outfielder and Charles Darwin, Rock On Thunder (drawn 22) and Fitzella (16) are also habitual trailblazers, as to a slightly lesser degree Brussels (18), the third APO'B runner. That might mean they go too hard stands side; but, if they don't, the likeliest to pick up the pieces are Venetian Sun (13) and Wise Approach (15).

The last named is a bit of a forgotten man in this. He was less than a length behind Venetian Sun in the Morny before winning the Group 1 Middle Park over 6f.  True, he's underwhelmed twice in the spring, when beaten about three lengths in each of the Pavilion Stakes (a trial for this) and the Carnarvon; but what if those were sighters for his primary target, the Commonwealth Cup? An alternative theory is that he hasn't trained on - and that holds some water at this stage - but his price is playable and he figures to get a pace setup most likely.

Coppull won the Pavilion last time, and as a two-year-old was a close third to Wise Approach in the Middle Park and a slightly more distant third behind Gstaad in the Coventry. He has two solid bits of track and trip form, then, and is genuine Group 1 class. Stall 14 sandwiches him between Venetian Sun and Wise Approach.

If high numbers have had the best of it so far this week (Tue/Wed as I write this Thursday morning), the stall positions of CC winners gives pause for thought. To wit, last year stall 1 of 21, then 1 of 14, 3 of 13, 1 of 20, 11 of 15, 10 of 16, 4 of 9, and 3 of 22. Hmm. But let's take a breath and consider the evidence more broadly.

 

 

The chart above is PRB3 (the average percentage of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours) by actual draw position (accounting for non-runners). This is a really good way of smoothing the curve and getting under the skin of seemingly counter-intuitive draw bias numbers. What it shows is that low draws have performed pretty well, especially very low; but so, too, have very high numbers: it appears that being close to either rail is an advantage. That makes a lot more sense even if it doesn't especially help us find the winner, not obviously at any rate.

What we can say is that those drawn in the middle have tended to struggle, which brings in Wise Approach and Venetian Sun. Good grief, help!

There's one more I want to highlight. Drawn 3 is Division, a Wathnan Racing-owned son of Kingman who has probably been screaming for a setup like this. He won a 13-runner Listed race at York over six last October and then, in two spins this term, ran an eyecatching closing third in the Pavilion (course and distance) and then got closest to Venetian Sun in the Sandy Lane at Haydock. He is a closer and, while most of the pace is high, the low numbers have Song Of The Clyde (2), Zanthos (1) and Havana Anna (7). They look sure to carry Division into the mix on his side, from where it's a case of whether they're in front or behind the other lot - assuming there's a, erm, division in the field.

Suggestion: It's a really tricky race if you, like me, want to oppose the 'obvious' filly in the field, Venetian Sun. She might very well win but I can't be taking 6/4. Instead I'm going make two small each way plays, on Wise Approach and Division. If low is again the place to be - or at least not the place not to be (eh?) - 12/1 Division should be bang there. Wise Approach, also 12/1, does require a touch more imagination, but if you like VS from 13 you can't mind WA from 15; he obviously needs to step up on his 2026 level thus far.

 

Tix Pointers: It's not been a crazy race from a placepot perspective. That said, last year was 25/1, 28/1, 20/1, with the first two home drawn 1 and 20 in a field of 21. I'm definitely going deeper than the favourite on my A tickets.

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3.40 THE DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Sam Darby 

This will be my strongest fancy of the week in what is traditionally my favourite race of the meeting - hopefully we’re rewarded. I tend to only bet in the handicaps, and the straight course races are obviously highly unpredictable, not just because of the number of runners but also because the draw bias can be difficult to get right.

There is a clear draw bias over 12f though, and that doesn’t change from race to race or meeting to meeting fortunately.

Even a quick glance at the above shows a strong draw bias towards the higher numbers and, particularly, away from the low numbers.

In terms of PRB3, even the worst of the double figure stalls is pretty much better than any single figure stall and the best single figure stalls come out as 8 and 9.

It’s not impossible to defy a lower draw, of course - the last three winners of this race have come from single figures (7, 4 and 9). However, the previous seven winners came from 19, 19, 14,12, 12, 19 and 18. 

Before I delve into the pace map and form, the other thing worth flagging is the role the draw plays in any pace bias. To defy a lower draw, you generally need to be prominent. That makes perfect sense given the patiently ridden horses from low stalls will often meet significant trouble in running in such large fields.

The sweet spot appears to be a middle to high draw, with a prominent or mid division racing style. The pace map below is sorted high draws at the top to low draws at the bottom.

There look to be three potential front runners in this, all drawn middle to high. I’m not convinced they’ll go massively hard, but it does look likely to be run at an even gallop at least, and should be a pretty fair race on that score.

I’ll cut straight to the chase. The horse I really like for this is HOPEWELL ROCK.

For those of you who have read other previews and articles I’ve written, you’ll probably know that hot form plays a huge part in my selection process. I already liked Hopewell Rock for this at the five day stage, but he was given an almighty form boost in the final race on day one of this meeting.

On seasonal debut at Newmarket, in a steadily run contest, Hopewell Rock did well to finish 3rd (beaten just 1.75 lengths) after being held up out the back. The first two home were Daiquiri Bay and Gamrai, who held the first two positions throughout. That pair then finished 1st and 2nd again in the Copper Horse Stakes on Tuesday.

Opportunity was the ante post favourite for this but I already thought he might be vulnerable having gone up 8lbs for winning what looked a fairly weak race last time, albeit winning it very well. He’s now been handed stall 1, which has a dreadful record in these races, and I’d be very confident in opposing this horse.

Warrant Holder fared much better with the draw (17) and he’s sure to be popular given his profile. It’s worth noting though that he was 5.5 lengths behind Hopewell Rock at Leicester in October and is now 11lbs worse off with that rival. That’s not to say he can’t reverse the form eight months later - a lot of water has passed under the bridge since - but Warrant Holder’s subsequent exploits are another form boost for the selection.

That horse is probably the main danger to Hopewell Rock, whilst at bigger prices, I could see Plage De Havre running into the places. He looks held by the handicapper, but his Old Newton Cup demolition job last year worked out extremely well, and being 10lbs higher for winning that race by four lengths makes him vulnerable to less exposed rivals without ruling him out.

It will be interesting to see what race position Hopewell Rock can get early. I’d have definitely preferred a higher draw to guarantee a wider trip. From stall 8, I still worry that James McDonald won’t have done his homework and he’ll switch him inside and have him out the back. He will have a massive chance of riding the winner if he can keep wider and slot in around mid division, before challenging down the outside in the straight.

If you can get 5/1+, I think he’s still okay as an each way bet.

Suggestion: Back Hopewell Rock e/w at 5/1+

 

Tix Pointers: High draws are fine here, and horses patiently ridden and lucky in the run are those on which to focus. Obviously we won't know which are which on either count until after the race - annoying!

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4.20 THE CORONATION STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

If the St James's Palace Stakes on Tuesday is a confluence of the European 2000 Guineas form, then the Coronation Stakes is the 1000 Guineas' equivalent. Sadly, with no French entry this year it looks a straight match between the winners at Newmarket and the Curragh, both trained by that man Aidan.

At Newmarket, Precise was favoured and ridden by Ryan Moore but True Love won, ridden by Wayne Lordan. True Love, racing on the other side of the track, was beaten five lengths by a winner that was a neck shy of two lengths better than anything else in the race.

If we thought we had our miling queen crowned, the Curragh was a reset of pre-Newmarket thinking. This time, True Love was favoured and ridden by Moore, but Precise re-asserted her primacy in the hands of Wayne Lordan. Precise 1 True Love 1, but Wayne 2 Ryan 0. How frustrating it must be for a jockey in such a position.

Precise is likely to be waited with, as is her wont, and in a smallish field that ought not to be an issue; she looks good to go 2-1 ahead on her fellow Classic-winning stablemate, and 4/6 might not be an uncharitable offer from the layers either, if odds on is your thing.

If there's one thing that tempers enthusiasm, it's O'Brien's relatively poor record in the Coronation Stakes. Since 2009, he's saddles 24 fillies and won just twice, with Lillie Langtry in 2010 and Winter in 2017. Hermosa was beaten at evens, Found at 13/8, Homecoming Queen at 9/4, Opera Singer at 10/3 and Meditate and Together, both 7/2. Food for thought, at least.

I got the impression that Newmarket may have taken plenty out of True Love, who was clearly riper that day, when she ran fairly flat at the Curragh - albeit still grabbing the silver medal. As such, I'd be more wary of her this time. Depending on whether I'm right or wrong on that, there are one or two each way places to play for so let's go deeper into the field.

Touleen raced on the same (wrong) side as True Love in the 1000 Guineas, and finished half a length in front of that one though no match for Evolutionist (a noted absentee here) who 'won' that far side race. She'd previously run a lovely race in defeat in the Fred Darling, closing for second over the inadequate seven furlongs at Newbury. Owen Burrows is a trainer I respect more than most and he's eminently capable with a decent Shadwell horse (think Hukum, Alflaila, Minzaal, Anmaat). There's a feeling this filly has a bit more to come and, though there needs to be on the balance of respective form, she's a definite place player at least.

We haven't seen Balantina since last season, which didn't stop Inspiral in 2022; but that filly was unbeaten whereas this one brings solid but not outstanding claims to the party. Her trainer, Donnacha O'Brien, won this two years ago with Porta Fortuna but she arrived with a neck second in the 1000 Guineas under her belt. There are enough reasons to discount her this time though I'll be very interested to see how she runs with a view to the second half of the campaign.

Fourth at the Curragh was Black Caviar Gold, and she gets a first time visor here. Trainer Paddy Twomey has reached for the visor five times in the past two years, saddling a winner and two seconds from that quintet. They were all very well fancied, however, so that doesn't really tell us anything! This filly doesn't look good enough, in truth.

Similar comments apply to each of Timeforshowcasing, Moon Target and Rose Ghaiyyath, but Sukanya may not be completely without hope. She won the Fred Darling, beating Touleen, before running no sort of a race in the Irish 1000. She got a bump at the start there and was lit up and keen as a result; as such, she was entitled to guzzle her gas before the race was over. It wouldn't be the biggest shock if she made the frame.

Suggestion: This is not a deep renewal and 4/6 PRECISE probably wins. The obvious alternative, True Love from the same stable, looks opposable I think, making 9/1 Touleen reasonable each way value. Hail Mary players might consider a ha'penny each way on 40/1 Sukanya in case her Curragh spin was a chuck out.

 

Tix Pointers: The favourite or second favourite has placed in 12 of the last 13 years. Favourite banker?

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5.00 THE SANDRINGHAM STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

A 3yo fillies handicap over the straight mile to finish my week’s work. I’ll start by taking a look at the 15-year trends, which see four strong pointers.

Market Rank

Six wins for the SP favourites (seven for the BSP fav) so, despite having big fields generally (11 of the races with 20+ runners), the market has proved a good guide as far as market leaders are concerned.

Price LTO

Related, 14 of the last 15 winners returned an SP of 17/2 or less LTO. A further 31 were placed. Horses priced 9/1 or bigger LTO have won just once from 123 runners (10 placed).

Weight Rank

Seven of the last 15 winners have come from the top four in the weights (inc. joint 4th). This equates to 47% of the winners from just under 20% of the total runners. Also, a further 14 were placed.

Position LTO

Eight of the last 15 winners won LTO. This equates to 53% of the winners from just 28% of the total runners.

 

We have a few angles for those who follow long term race trends, then.

Looking at the draw now, and last year the first three horses were drawn 2, 6 and 1, whereas in 2023 the first seven home were drawn middle to high. This race has not been that easy to predict draw wise, unlike some of the other straight course races that have tended to show a more reliable and consistent bias. However, I personally will take high to middle over low unless the ground comes up soft, which given the forecast seems very unlikely.

Moving onto run style / pace, 10 of the last 11 winners, and 36 of 44 win & placed runners, were either held up or raced no closer than midfield early. This seems to be a race where waiting tactics are the order of the day. Here is the pace map this time around:

 

 

 

All the early pace looks to be in the high numbers here so a middle to high draw could be the place to be.

 

Here are some of the leading contenders...

Seet – trained by the Gosdens who won this race in 2023 with Coppice. Is a very good trends fit and seems to have the right pace profile albeit having had just three career runs (six of the last 18 winners had just the three runs). Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking and, since 2008, the Moore/Gosden combo has secured 40 wins from 149 rides hitting close to a 27%-win rate, and this year they are currently seven from 12. Drawn 20 looks decent based on the pace map.

Glyfada – not seen on a racecourse as a 2yo but has had two wins and a second from three starts this year. Irish raiders have been successful a couple of times in the last 15 years. Oisin Murphy takes the ride which looks a positive. Drawn 31 which I am thinking might be a good one.

Symbol of Majesty – another from the Gosden yard. Was beaten favourite last time at Wolverhampton when getting poorly positioned from off the pace. Will need to bounce back. Drawn 21.

Darn Hot Gallop – Out of her depth in the 1000 Guineas but previously was three from three at a lower level. If the stable really thought the horse had the potential to be competitive at Group 1 level, then she must have a chance here.

Rosa Inglesa – Charlie Fellows bagged this race in consecutive years in 2019 and 2020 and runs Rosa Inglesa this time. Last time out was a comfortable winner at Nottingham and has been raised 9lb for that success. That doesn’t look too harsh to me. Drawn 19.

 

Suggestion: Famous last words but I want to be drawn middle to high here and hence my three favoured horses are Seet (drawn 20), Rosa Inglesa (drawn 19) and Glyfada (drawn 31). I’m going to suggest 5/1 Seet to win and 9/1 Glyfada each way.

 

Tix Pointers: A race where staying close to the top of the market has served very well. And a patient ride (midfield or held up) has got 11 of the last 13 winners.

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5.35 THE KING EDWARD VII STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Rory Delargy

Traditionally known as the ‘Ascot Derby’ the King Edward VII is rarely a target for those who have gone to Epsom due to its proximity, and it no longer enjoys the status it once enjoyed for all it still retains Group 2 status. Derby flop Ancient Egypt bids to get his career back on track but while I’d excuse his Epsom run on account of the soft ground, it almost always pays to pass over those who come here via Epsom, and he may have to wait for another day.

The race appears to be a clash between Gallinule Stakes winner Causeway and the Kempton novice winner Water Into Wine and the argument is whether the former can utilise his experience against a horse who had little more than an exercise gallop against vastly inferior rivals last time.

Causeway is a typical Coolmore product, being a son of Wootton Bassett out of a beautifully bred daughter of Galileo. His profile suggests that the trip could be an issue as he raced at a mile or shorter on his first four runs, but there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and Coolmore have been breeding Galileo to speedily bred mares to produce middle-distance stars for long enough to know how the magic happens.

Causeway stepped up to ten furlongs in the Gallinule, a Group 3 that has thrown out champions like Ardross and Assert in bygone days, but only Leading Light has gone on to much greater things of recent winners and Causeway beat only a useful bunch to score at the Curragh. That said, he did score in the style of an improving colt, repelling the challenge of Zia Zabel with more in hand than a head would suggest. On the evidence of the run, he will stay this longer trip and looks a solid contender.

Water Into Wine has won a maiden and a novice in two starts, both over 1m3f, and has yet to be extended. The question with him is working out how much substance there is beneath the obvious style, and whether it’s enough to justify favouritism here. First of all, I’ll admit he didn’t beat anything of merit at Kempton last time when cruising to an 11-length win; but his victory on debut at Newbury is a better effort to judge him on, and he was less experienced than the colt he slammed into second that day. That colt, Richard Hannon’s Alderman, went on to Epsom on the back of that second-place effort and finished a highly creditable fifth to Christmas Day in the Derby, beating the likes of Pierre Bonnard, Ancient Egypt and Item by upwards of 2¾ lengths. That might flatter him a little but Water Into Wine made him look slow at Newbury and the winner is entitled to take another step forward given he’s yet to be fully tested.

Some are wary of the switch from all-weather to turf for big races, but Newbury proves he’s effective on firmish ground and I’m inclined to take a very positive view of his form, with his campaign reminiscent of the way Lucarno was campaigned for the same connections before winning the St Leger. I think John Gosden has been quite clever to come here rather than the Queen’s Vase as he was likely to find a smaller field, which will help to offset his inexperience. Causeway will be by far his toughest opponent and will not lie down, but I expect Water To Wine won’t need a miracle to maintain his unbeaten record.

 

Suggestion: 1pt Exacta Water To Wine/Causeway

 

Tix Pointers: Only the Covid edition messed things up for jollies on the placepot ticket. As the last leg, it might be one in which to bank and lay the favourite for a place on the exchange?

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6.10 THE PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by David Massey

There’s a fair spread of pace across the course here, although I’d be surprised if anything led up the speedball that is Revival Power from the low numbers. I’m a massive fan of hers, she did me a few good turns last year but it is worth remembering she did get herself a bit stewed up before the Queen Mary last year and her effort fizzled out as a result. If she can keep a lid on things this time around then obviously her chance would increase, but I suspect there are other targets for her in the second half of the season and it’ll probably be a watching brief.

Only two horses with single-figure draws have hit the frame in this in the last five years; compare that to nine drawn 20 or above that have delivered an each-way return (and that includes three winners) and it probably pays to stick with those drawn high. With that, I think Starmade, from stall 30, makes plenty of interest.

So far Starmade has won twice on the all-weather, successful over 6f at Newcastle last time out (third a winner since) and whilst his three turf efforts don’t match that form, he’s only raced on ground described by Timeform as either soft or good to soft. There must be a chance he is going to improve for quicker conditions here, and the way he travels strongly towards the midfield/rear in his races is probably the right sort of runstyle required to win this. I see some 25s around as I type; 20s and bigger looks perfectly fair.

Dickensian, second in the Windsor Castle last year, is more obvious but is worth pointing out all the same. Last year, he was showing a lot of speed in his races and not always seeing them out, so it was interesting to see new tactics employed on his reappearance at York last month, Shane Gray dropping him out and allowing a fast pace to come back to him at the finish. He showed plenty of tenacity to poke his head in front late on, and that form looks strong; the second home, Simplify, is an improver, and third home Aspect Island lost nothing in defeat when finishing midfield in the King Charles III Stakes here on Tuesday. There should be more to come from him now he’s shown himself tactically versatile.

To complete the shortlist, there's nothing wrong with the claims of James Owen's Cherry Baker. Her profile is probably a bit less sexy than a few, but she's nicely drawn, has the right hold-up run style, and it's a case of whether a drop to five furlongs is going to suit. It might, as for all she's been tried over seven furlongs and a mile, her best form has come over six, her record at that trip reading 112; she comes here in cracking form after two good efforts at Chester. It's not hard to see her finishing off well, and she's one you should at least have in all your exotics here.

Suggestion: Try Starmade e/w at 25/1 or bigger, or Dickensian at 12/1