Posts

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2017

Monday's Result :

7.10 Windsor - Chiefofchiefs @ 10/3 BOG - 4th at 4/1 : Raced wide in touch, ridden over 3f out, headway over 1f out, stayed on one pace

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Golden Goal @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

The in-form (4 winners and 4 placers from 11 runners in the last 10 days) Saeed bin Suroor send this 3 yr old colt out to defend his 100% record here, having won both his previous starts, both over this course and distance and both under today's jockey Martin Lane, who has ridden 30 winners from 179 (16.8% SR) for profits of 78.25pts (+43.7% ROI) here at Chelmsford to date.

Of those 178 rides, he is...

  • 26/140 (18.6%) for 90.6pts (+64.7%) in handicaps
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 13.5pts (+50%) over 7 furlongs

Martin has also ridden 2 winners from 3 (66.6%) here for 1.94pts (+64.5%) profit for Saeed bin Suroor, whose own record on this track is pretty decent too with 19 winners from 38 (50% SR) for 24.4pts (+64.3% ROI) since the start of 2016.

Of these 38 SbS Chelmsford runners...

  • males are 12/25 (48%) for 10.61pts (+42.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 11/19 (57.9%) for 14.79pts (+77.8%)
  • handicappers are 6/13 (46.2%) for 11.34pts (+87.3%)
  • over 7f : 5/9 (55.6%) for 3.93pts (+43.7%)
  • LTO winners are 3/8 (37.5%) for 1.89pts (+23.6%)
  • and in 3yo only races : 4/6 (66.6%) for 8.74pts (+145.6%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Golden Goal @ 5/2 BOG which was available with 7 different firms at 7.30pm on Monday, but those able to take the 10/3 from Stan James (no BOG 'til raceday) should do so, although I suspect not many can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st December 2016

Friday's Result :

2.50 Newcastle : Thello @ 5/1 BOG 5th @ 5/2 Held up, mid-division, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Natural Scenery @ 5/2 non-BOG or 9/4 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has made just six starts to date, but already has 2 wins and 2 placed finishes, is 1 from 2 on the A/W and 1 from 1 at today's trip.

She's trained by Saeed bin Suroor, whose record in A/W handicaps over the last 8 years stands at 91 winners from 296 (30.7% SR) for level stake profits of 88.4pts at an ROI of 29.9%. Of particular relevance from those 296 runners are...

  • females winning 28 of 92 (30.4%) for 60.1pts (+65.3%)
  • Class 3 runners winning 32 of 87 (36.8%) for 50.3pts (+57.8%)
  • here at Lingfield : 16/44 (36.4%) for 6.9pts (+15.6%)
  • and ridden by Ali Rawlinson : 6/9 (66.6%) for 7.5pts (+83.3%)

As a 3 yr old in a 3yo+ handicap, the jockey's 3lb claim is also supplemented by a 5lb weight for age allowance, basically putting Natural Scenery well in by 8lbs here. This weight allowance increases with the race distance and Saeed bin Suroor is one of the better trainers at getting the most from this scheme.

Since the start of 2010, his 3yr olds in 3yo+ handicaps over trips of 1m2f and beyond are 36/145 (24.8% SR) for 11.4pts (+7.9% ROI), with the following at play today...

  • those priced at 6/4 to 4/1 are 27/75 (36%) for 30pts (+40%)
  • over the last 3 yrs : 23/74 (31.1%) for 28.1pts (+37.9%)
  • females are 14/48 (29.2%) for 13.6pts (+28.3%)
  • on the A/W  : 13/46 (28.3%) for 6.9pts (+15%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 3/10 (30%) for 0.79pts (+7.9%)

And finally a quick nod towards her father, Dubawi, whose offspring are 90/381 (23.6% SR) for 177.2pts (+46.5% ROI) over today's 1m4f trip, with 3 yr olds winning 52 of 206 (25.2%) for 137.7pts (+66.9%).

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Natural Scenery at 5/2 non-BOG which was available from Betfred and Totesport at 6.20pm on Friday, but as they don't go BOG until morning, I'll be settling the result at 9/4 BOG, which was widely available, especially from my preferred Bet365.

To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 7th December 2016

Tuesday's Result :

2.50 Southwell : Royal Holiday @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 4/1 Prominent, led entering final 3f, ridden and headed over 2f out, kept on one pace and lost 2 places inside final furlong.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

7.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Timekeeping @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

Towards the bottom end of my preferred odds range for SotD, but this 3yr old colt ticks so many statistical boxes here that I found it difficult to overlook him.

Firstly, he comes from a thriving Saeed bin Suroor yard that has had 10 winners from 30 (33.3% SR) in the past month and is 3/8 (37.5%) over the last fortnight, so I'm already interested in Saeed's only runner of the day.

Then we add in his record at Kempton, where since 2009, his runners are 110/367 (30% SR) for 105.2pts (+28.7% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • 41/143 (28.7%) for 61.9pts (+43.3%) in handicaps
  • 41/137 (29.9%) for 26.3pts (+19.2%) at Class 4
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 18.8pts (+23.8%) in Class 4 handicaps
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 8.5pts (+170%) over 2 miles.

And if that's not enough to send you to place a bet, today is Timekeeping's 2nd effort in a handicap and since 2012 the Suroor "second timers" are 45/171 (26.3% SR) for 85.6pts (+50.1% ROI), including...

  • 15 wins from 61 (24.6%) from those stepping up in trip for profits of 23.8pts (+39% ROI)
  • 13 from 51 (25.5%) at Class 4 for 13.1pts (+25.7%)
  • 7 from 23 (30.4%) for 42.5pts (+184.8%) here at Kempton
  • and 1 from 2 for 3.75pts (+187.5%) over this 2m trip.

And for those of you wanting/needing more, there's plenty, but I'll leave it after this next one!

As a 3 yr old in a 3yo+ handicap, Timekeeping will get an 8lb weight for age allowance and Saeed bin Suroor is a master at exploiting this weight loophole. On the A/W over trips of 1m2f and beyond (the allowance increases with trip!) since the start of 2014, his 3 yr olds are 10/28 (35.7%) for 17.2pts (+61.4%), including...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 13pts (+108.5%) here at Kempton
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.5pts (+150%) at Class 4
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 1.2pts (+30%) over 2m/2m0.5f

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Timekeeping at 5/2 BOG which was offered by a dozen firms including my preferred Bet365 at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2016

Wednesday's Result :

2.40 Taunton : Top Wood @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Led to 4 out, weakening when hampered and left 3rd 3 out)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

6.40 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

New Strategy @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

It has been a quiet start to 2016 for the Saeed bin Suroor yard with as many runners at last Thursday's Meydan fixture (4) as he's had in the UK this year. Then again, it's all about quality not quantity and he's already had two winners and a runner-up from his three Chelmsford representatives since New Year.

As a high-profile trainer, there's nowhere to hide, but thankfully his results do all the talking. Backing every one of his A/W handicappers over the last 7 years (and 2 weeks!) has been a profitable exercise as 83 winners from 264 (31.4% SR) have generated level stakes profits of 96.2pts at a healthy return of 36.4%.

From those 264 runners, his horses are 80/253 (31.6% SR) for 96.8pts (+38.3% ROI) over trips of 6f to 1m4f and they're also 72/222 (32.4% SR) for 95.1pts (+42.8% ROI) at Classes 2 to 4.

The bin Suroor Class 2 to 4 A/W handicappers over trips of 6f to 1m4f are 69/212 (32.6% SR) for 94.7pts (+44.7% ROI) since the start of 2009.

More specifically, he does well at this venue too. At the previous incarnation of Great Leighs, he had 5 winners from just 17 runners (29.4% SR) for 9.5pts (+55.8% ROI) profit and since the course reopened, he has done particularly well at the sharp end of the market.

At the "new" track, Saeed bin Suroor's runners priced 4/5 to 4/1 are 10/28 (35.7% SR) for 4.1pts (+14.6% ROI) and in respect of this contest...

  • males are 8/18 (44.4% SR) for 6.9pts (+38.4% ROI)
  • handicappers are 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 2.7pts (+16.8% ROI)
  • those racing at 7/8 furlongs are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 4.4pts (+31.4% ROI)
  • class 4 horses are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 7pts (+100% ROI)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/5 (80% SR) for 5.24pts (+104.8% ROI)
  • and Ali Rawlinson is 1 from 1.

That 1 from 1 comes from Ali's 4 from 5 (11131) record on the bin Suroor string to date and has already generated 6.7pts (+133.9% ROI) profit.

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.35pm is...

A 1pt win bet on New Strategy and that's at 11/4 BOG with Coral, whilst Betfred / Totesport offer the same odds, but are non-BOG until morning. To see your preferred bookie's prices, you can always...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2015

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2015

Tuesday's Result :

7.10 Wolverhampton : Musical Taste @ 11/2 BOG : won at 9/4 fav (Soon close 2nd, led 6f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on well to win by a length and a quarter)

Tuesday's selection runs in the...

4.55 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nice Future at 9/2 non-BOG (Betway) or 4/1 BOG (generally)

Why?

Here at Newmarket over the last four seasons, Saeed bin Suroor has enjoyed an overall 26.6% strike rate from his handicappers priced in the evens to 9/12 price range, as his 17 winners from 64 runners have produced level stakes profits of 36.7pts (+57.3% ROI).

His horses also tend to run well here when James Doyle sits on them and in that same 4 season time frame and at the same evens to 9/1 odds, James has ridden 9 winners from 31 (29% SR) for 22.6pts (+72.8% ROI)

Today sees this 2 yr old colt Nice Future stepping up in trip to make a handicap debut and he follows a pretty well-worn path that has brought Saeed bin Suroor plenty of success. In fact, since the start of 208, his handicap debutants are 67/276 (24.3% SR) for 36.7pts (+13.3% ROI) which are decent enough figures, but can be seen in a better light when placed in context of today's race, as they are...

  • 67/264 *25.4% SR) for 48.7pts (+18.4% ROI) at Classes 2 to 5
  • 58/225 (25.6% SR) for 69.8pts (+31% ROI) at odds of 13/8 to 12/1
  • 54/196 (27.6% SR) for 57.1pts (+29.2% ROI) with male runners
  • 49/165 (29.7% SR) for 59.5pts (+36.1% ROI) with those running at the the same trip as last time out or stepping up in trip by up to 1.5f
  • 17/53 (32.1% SR) for 17.4pts (+32.8% ROI) with 2 yr olds
  • 11/35 (31.4% SR) for 35.1pts (+100.3% ROI) on the Newmarket turf.

And your micro? Males, aged 2 to 4, priced at 13/8 to 12/1 in class 2 to 5 handicaps at the same trip as LTO or stepped up by up to 2.5f are 43/123 (35% SR) for 97.3pts (+79.1% ROI). Of which 2yr olds are 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 15.2pts (+52.4% ROI) and there's a record of 8 wind from 20 (40% SR) for 42.3pts (+211.5% ROI) at Newmarket.

And my recommended bet?

1pt win on Nice Future at 9/2 non-BOG with Betway. 4/1 BOG is widely available, but I think the price will contract, but you can make your own call when you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2015

They say that when you're hot, you're hot and when you're not, you're not. At the moment, I'm pretty chilly and although April has been excellent overall, it's in danger of fizzling out with a whimper after another loss yesterday.

Not that Convicted ran badly, he just didn't run well enough. He led until there was just 2 of the 11 furlongs left to run, but once headed the game was up and he eventually surrendered another couple of places late on to finish 4th at 10/3, a shade longer than advised.

I don't mind admitting that finding a suitable selection for Tuesday was tough, but I think I might just have something in the...

3.05 Wolverhampton:

Where Saeed bin Suroor steps Always Smile up by 2.5 furlongs for her second outing and handicap debut.

SBS has his horses running well at present with 5 winners from 22 in the last fortnight and his record here at Wolvehampton is decent. Since the start of 2009, he has saddled up 48 winners here from just 132 runners, an impressive 36.4% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 21.4pts at an ROI of 16.2%.

Those figures aren't skewed by some old data, as in recent years, he's done even better with 31 winners from 81 (38.3% SR) since the start of 2012 for profits of 19.1pts (+23.6% ROI). He fares better in handicap contests with a record reading 16/44 (36.4% SR) for 18pts (+40.9% ROI) in those last three years with those priced shorter than 6/1 winning 15 of 33 (45.5% SR) for 21.1pts (+64% ROI).

Always Smile makes her handicap debut today and becomes the yard's 242nd handicap debutant since 2008. 58 of the 241 (24.1% SR) won 1st time up for profits of 41.6pts (+17.3% ROI) with runners here at Wolverhampton winning 4 of 13 (30.8% SR) for 7.6pts (+58.1% ROI).

Those handicap debutants who, like Always Smile, were stepping up in trip by up to 2.5f for that 1st effort have won 28 of 94 (29.8% SR) for 44.1pts (+46.9% ROI) profit.

Always Smile was a winner on debut, coasting home by 3.5 lengths over 6f and being by Cape Cross and a half-sister to Oaks runner (5th and only beaten by 4.5 lengths) Ihtimal, the step up in trip should suit her, as I expect she'll end up being a 10f/12f horse in due course.

The best price for Always Smile is 16/5 BOG with BetBright. You can see if that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 3.05 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 24th October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th October 2014

We didn't get much of a run from Minella Bliss at Southwell on Thursday as he only made it as far as the third fence before coming a cropper.

There'll have been plenty of discarded betting slips as our 4/1 advised selection was sent off as the 9/4 joint favourite, validating my belief that he was over priced. As it was, he was going along nicely, but didn't seem to get high enough at fence three, it looked like his knees went through the top of it and down he and jockey Ben Poste came.

Thankfully they were both unscathed by the incident, but we're still shy a winner or two this week, something I aim to rectify in Friday's...

1.20 Doncaster:

Where Saeed bin Suroor gives a handicap/nursery debut to the 2yr old colt Best Example, who comes here stepping up in both trip and class from his win over 7 furlongs in a Class 4 maiden at Musselburgh 26 days ago and he's priced at 9/2 BOG to follow up today.

The yard has an excellent record with their juveniles...

Since 2009, Saeed bin Suroor has trained 224 winners from the 780 two year olds sent to the track with this 28.7% strike rate producing a modest but handy 89.2pts profit at an ROI of 11.4% from blind backing and in nurseries that record is 19/68 (27.9% SR) for 18.4pts (+27.1% ROI)

Saeed's two year olds who were sent off at 9/1 or shorter won 216 of 688 (31.4% SR) races producing 120.1pts profit (+17.5% ROI) , with the sub-5/1 runners performing best with 192 winners from 498 (38.6% SR) generating an excellent 103.8pts profit at an ROI of 20.9%.

And these sub 5/1 two yr olds have a superb record here at Doncaster winning 10 of 21 (47.6% SR) races for 13.30pts (+63.3% ROI).

Today is Best Example's handicap debut...

Saeed bin Suroor's handicap debutants on the Flat have a record of 39 wins from 184 races (21.2% SR) with the 13.2 pts profit coming in at an ROI of 7.2% and from this we derive the following...

Two year olds : 8/31 (25.8% SR) for 2.9pts (+9.4% ROI)
Class 3 : 9/42 (21.4% SR) for 18.7pts (+44.5% ROI)
In October : 4/20 (20% SR) for 8.9pts (+44.6% ROI)
Over 1 mile : 12/49 (24.5% SR) for 28.4pts (+57.9% ROI)
Up In Trip by up to 1.5f : 14/37 (37.8% SR) for 35.7pts (+96.6% ROI)
Up In Class : 21/99 (21.2% SR) for 12.8pts (+12.9% ROI)
And those stepping up to Class 3 : 7/31 (22.6% SR) for 21.1pts (+68.2% ROI)

In addition to the proliferation of facts and figures above, we should consider the blistering recent form of the yard, who have had 21 winners from 72 runners in the past month (29.2% SR) and although Best Example steps up in trip today, he was staying on well when winning by the best part of three lengths last time out, suggesting that he'll definitely want further in future.

It has to be added, though, that an opening handicap mark of 81 makes this far from a gimme and this has been recognised by the trainer who has elected to put a 5lb (Kevin Stott) on board to make our runner that little bit more competitive at the weights.

And the presence of the claimer doesn't put me off either, as Kevin's proving to be no mug and is in really good nick himself with 6 wins from 28 (21.4% SR) in the last four weeks and this will be his fifth ride for Saeed bin Suroor and he hasn't let the trainer in the past. A defeat by just a neck on board Romance Story at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago is the only blot on a sequence reading 1211 in his four starts for the yard.

I think that the opening mark of 81 is partially responsible for what looks a fairly generous price here and so I have no qualms about placing a 1pt win bet on Best Example at 9/2 BOG with Paddy Power, but to see the rest of the market...

...click here for the latest betting on the 1.20 Doncaster

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2014

At 10.55am on Monday, Placidia became our second successive non-runner and so we still await our first run of the week.

In a bid to avoid any ground concerns for my Tuesday selection, I'm returning to a tried and tested A/W formula that has served both myself and SotD well over the last few years, with a runner in the...

6.05 Kempton:

Where I've just placed a 4/1 BOG bet on a horse, Blue Army, whose career form line reads 755 and hasn't yet got within five lengths of a winner so far. You'd be forgiven for thinking I'd lost the plot a little, but today is his first trip to Kempton, where he now makes his handicap debut for Saeed bin Suroor...

...a trainer who excels with this type of horse 

Since 2009, 145 of Saeed bin Suroor's 834 handicap runners (17.4% SR) have been winners and this is a decent strike rate from such a large sample size. The level stakes profits of 43.9pts (+5.3% ROI) are admittedly modest, but its's still a profit from blind backing and we can easily tweak things to our advantage here!

His A/W handicappers are more successful and also more profitable to follow with a record of 53 wins from 1983 runs (29% SR) for 75.3pts (+41.2% ROI), figures that most of us would be more than happy with for a stats-based selection, but I've only just started!

The record at Kempton reads 31 winners from 110 (28.2% SR) for 64.1pts (+58.2% ROI) with 20 of those winners coming from the 72 3 yr old runners. This 27.8% strike rate has produced 51.4pts profit at an ROI of 71.4% to date.

Coincidentally there were also 20 winners in the 5/2 to 8/1 bracket, that's 20 winners from 65 (30.8% SR) for 53 pts (+81.5% ROI). And from all this we find that...

...Saeed bin Suroor's 3 yr old horses have a record of 13/43 (30.2% SR) for 33.8pts (+78.6% ROI) when sent off in the 5/2 to 8/1 price range in Kempton A/W handicap contests.

Blue Army makes his handicap debut today...

Over the six seasons, Saeed bin Suroor has a record of 16 winners from 50 (325 SR) for 18.5pts (+37% ROI) profit with horses making their handicap debut on an A/W surface. From those 50 runners, there is an 11/33 (33.3% SR) record here at Kempton producing 12.3pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 37.4% to date.

Of the 11/22 record here at Kempton, the 3 yr olds have won 7 of 22 (31.8% SR) races for 10.7pts (+48.7% ROI) and the 3 yr olds running at odds of between 5/2 and 8/1 have won 5 of 11 (45.5% SR) handicap debuts here at Kempton, yielding 15.4pts (+14.3% ROI) profit.

He's also stepping up in trip by a furlong from his last run...

The yard often steps horses up a furlong for their handicap debut and enjoys a good degree of success from the tactic. Since 2009 the record stands at 16 winners from 39 (41% SR) for 40.7pts profit (+104.4% ROI) since 2009, with four winners from ten here at Kempton.

And finally, Blue Army has his first run on the A/W after three efforts on turf...

Saeed bin Suroor has a good record with horses starting out on turf and then switching quite early to the A/W during the Flat season proper. The fact that there is still plenty of Flat racing on offer shows this is a premeditated move that works well for him.

He has used this tactic with 140 horses since 2009 and 61 of them (43.6% SR) have won on their first crack at an artificialtrack, resulting in 93pts profit at an ROI of 66.4%.

From these 140 runners...
Those with just 1 to 4 previous outings won 57 of 127 races (44.9% SR) for 90pts (+70.9% ROI) profit.
At Kempton, the record is 31/73 (42.5% SR) for 62.2pts (+85.32% ROI)
The 7/4 to 9/1 odds range provided 48 winners from 106 (45.3% SR) for 105.6pts (+99.6% ROI)

Here at Kempton, those in that 7/4 to 9/1 range won 24 of 50 races (48% SR) for 71.7pts, with those with three or fewer runs under their belt having a record of 19 wins from 39 (48.7% SR) for 65.3pts profit at an ROI of 167.5%.

So, we've a whole stack of data to support the selection, but there's little to say about Blue Army himself other than he clearly comes from a top yard and his pedigree suggests he'll take well to the surface. His opening mark is understandably low at 66 and there could be room to exploit that and I consider the booking of Richard Hughes a positive move here, with no disrespect intended to the others that have ridden this horse in the past.

Finally, I should mention that not only does this yard go well here at Kempton, they are currently in excellent overall form with 5 winners from 12 in the last week and 23 winners from 70 over the past month, a month which has seen them notch up 9 winners from 23 on the All-Weather, including 5 of their last 10 runners here at Kempton.

The horse's previous form might mean this is a bit of a leap of faith, but the stats still point to a good run for our money from a 1pt win bet on Blue Army at 4/1 BOG. I'm on with BetVictor, but you can get the same price at Bet365, whilst you can see the full picture, when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 6.05 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 20th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th September 2014

A great run from Hawkhill yesterday put us back in profit for the week and ensured another profitable month for SotD in what are difficult times.

He led from the off and controlled the race from the front, never seeing another rival on his way to a comfortable 7 lengths victory, easing down on the run in.

He was returned at 11/4, but we got paid put at 164% of SP, thanks to an early 9/2 BOG price. We now move on to Saturday, where I'm quietly confident about the...

8.20 Wolverhampton:

Where there are a number of reasons why I've just backed Saeed bin Suroor's Night Party at 11/2 BOG with BetVictor for this 9.5f, Class 3 handicap on the all-weather.

Initially, I'm drawn to the trainer's record here...

Since 2009, Saeed bin Suroor's horses have won 38 times here at Wolverhampton from just 104 runners. This 36.5% strike rate has so far yielded moderate profits of 16.4pts at an ROI of 15.8%. We do prefer a higher return for SotD, but 16% is a good figure for blind backing and is an excellent starting point for some of my "digging".

From the 38/104 basic stat...

11/34 (32.4% SR) in handicap contests for 16.5pts (+48.5% ROI) profits.
Those in the 6/4 to 6/1 odds range are 21/53 (39.6% SR) for 22.2pts (+41.8% ROI).
And those in handicaps in that price range are 7/16 (43.8% SR) for 10.9pts (+68% ROI)

After three runs on turf, it's a first A/W start for Night Party...

Since 2009, the yard has switched 136 runners from the turf to the A/W for a horse's first crack at an artificial surface. 61 of these 136 have won at the first attempt and this 44.9% strike rate has generated 97pts profit at an ROI of 71.3%. Here at Wolverhampton,those numbers read 18 winners from 33 (54.6% SR) for 14.1pts (+42.7% ROI). An increased strike rate but a lower ROI suggests the runners attract market support here at Wolverhampton.

Also from the 61/136 stats for "switchers", a trip of 8 to 10 furlongs seems the optimum distance with a record of 30 wins from 59 (50.9% SR) for 61.8pts (+104.8% ROI) profit, whilst the best results also come from horses in the 5/4 to 9/1 price range with a 48/103 (46.6% SR) for 108.6pts (+105.4% ROI) profit. Class 3 runners are 10/19 (52.6% SR) for 22pts (+116% ROI).

You can, of course, mix and match those stats to match today's conditions, but the sample sizes become quite small.

Night Party makes her handicap debut today..

This too can be seen as a positive sign, as the yard's handicap debutants are 55/231 since 2008 with the 23.8% strike rate yielding 34.8pts at an ROI of 15.1%. And if we weed out the shorties and the longshots, we see a record of 49/176 (27.8% SR) for those running at odds of 6/4 up to 12/1 with the resultant 77.4pts profit equating to 44% of all stakes invested.

She's also stepping up in trip (by a furlong)...

The yard's handicap debutants who are stepping up in trip from their last run also have a very good record of 28 wins from 89 runs, a 31.5% strike rate producing 49.3pts profit at an ROI of 55.4% and from this we can see...

Those stepping up 1 furlong are 16/34 (47.1% SR) for 45.7pts (+134.4% ROI)
Those running at Class 3 level are 6/20 (30% SR) for 24.3pts (+121.5% ROI) and...
those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 6/1 inclusive have won 20 of 46 races  (43.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 38.4pts (+83.5% ROI).

The optimum type of of handicap debutant from this yard runs at Class 3 or 4, steps up by 0.5 to 2.5 furlongs and runs between 6/4 and 6/1, a bit like Night Party does today! 😀 Such horses have won 14 of 30 races (46.7% SR) for 28.5pts profit (+95.1% ROI).

It's a small sample size, of course, but let's just indulge ourselves a little by making a point that those at Class 3 stepping up one furlong are 2/3 at those odds for 9.2pts profit.

For her part, Night Party has had a promising, but short three race career in turf maidens. She was second and then fourth ( but getting closer to the winner!) in two 7f maidens at Newmarket last August as a 2 yr old, before taking an 8 month break. She then reappeared at Beverley five months ago, upped in trip to 8.5 furlongs where she ran on well to win by a couple of lengths.

She shaped as though a further step up in trip would be the plan and although she hasn't been done any favours by the assessor with her opening mark, the yard is in great form with a 13/33 record in the last two weeks and jockey Matthew Lawson will take a very valuable three pounds off the mark of 90. Matthew doesn't get a lot of rides, but did ride a winner on one of his two rides last time out (Bath last Saturday) and he's 2/7 on the bin Suroor horses.

Plenty of angles to consider, but if Night Party is as well prepared as I expect her to be, she could make her current odds look quite high come race time, which is why I'm placing a 1pt win bet on Night Party at 11/2 BOG with BetVictor. You can follow suit or you can...

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Stat of the Day, 10th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th June 2014

We were "done" late on by a neck at Windsor on Monday evening as Tom Queally was unable to keep Red Warrior running on anything like a straight line to the finish. Whether it made any difference is arguable at best, but the bottom line is that having led inside the final furlong, our 5/1 shot (6/1 BOG) was collared.

Fair play to those of you who took the E/W option and made a small profit, but for me it's a point dropped. Mind you, being a Bolton fan, I'm used to dropping points when a victory looked almost certain!

Hopefully, history won't repeat itself with Tuesday's selection, which runs in the...

3.55 Salisbury:

Where Silvestre de Sousa will aim to maintain his recent good form aboard Saeed bin Suroor's handicap debutante Hidden Gold, who was a course and distance winner here at Salisbury on her racecourse debut 26 days ago and is currently best priced at 3/1 BOG to complete the double.

The trainer's horses are in fine form of late with a 24.6% strike rate (15 winners from 61) and an ROI of 23.3% (via 14.4pts profit) in the last two months and Saeed bin Suroor's horses are worth following here at Salisbury, even if there aren't many to follow! He has an overall record of 26 wins from 103 (25.2% SR) at the track which has produced modest profits of 14.33pts, or 13.9% of stakes. Better than a poke in the eye, I say.

And if you thought he didn't send many runners to this course, then his entrants in handicap events are almost as rare as hen's teeth. Just 24 runners in Salisbury handicaps, but a healthy 1-in-3 strike rate has been achieved, resulting in level stakes profits of 26.1pts (+108.8% ROI) from which there is a 7/15 (46.7% SR) record with handicap runners priced below 6/1: this has produced level stakes profits of 10.2pts, or 68% of stakes invested.

I mentioned that jockey Silvestre de Sousa was in good form earlier, and closer inspection shows him riding six winners from 22 in the last seven days and he'll come here fresher for having an unexpected day off on Monday, after his plans to ride at Pontefract were washed away.

He also has a decent enough record here at Salisbury, winning 5 of 21 races over the last 18 months: a 23.8% strike rate generating 30.4pts profit for an ROI of 144.7% with a 4/11 (36.4% SR) record with horses priced at 6/1 or shorter for 15.44pts (+ 140.4% ROI), and the record in handicaps is 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 23.35pts (+212.3% SR)

Saeed bin Suroor is also one of the best at getting his horses to win a handicap race at the first time of asking, particularly in these mid-grade contests, such as today. Over the last six seasons in handicap races at Classes 2 to 5 inclusive, his debutants have won 36 of the 114 races in which they were sent off at an SP of 12/1 or less. This represents a 31.6% strike rate and has been instrumental in registering level stakes profits of 72.8pts (+63.9% ROI).

If we apply a 6/1 odds cap to these runners, we lose 26% of the original subset of horses, but we only relinquish 11.1% of the winners, leaving us with a record of 32 winners from 84 runners (38.1% SR) and level stakes profits of 53.5pts (+63.7% ROI).

Hidden Gold comes here defending a 1 from 1 record gained with a C&D win at this very track 26 days ago and former Salisbury C&D winners returning to the course on the back of a win (achieved anywhere!) last time out have won 6 of 18 races on their return when sent off at odds of 10/1 or shorter. It is admittedly a small sample size, but a 33.33% strike rate is excellent, as are the 14.12pts (+78.4% ROI) profits achieved and if nothing else, it will serve to reinforce the earlier stats.

Hidden Gold comes from an impressive bloodline, being related to the likes of See The Stars and Galileo, so you'd be excused for expecting her to have some ability and she won well here on debut. She did run green when in front, but when for a little bit more to put the race to bed, she duly responded and seemed to have plenty in hand, had it been required.

I'd expect her to improve for having had the experience of that run and it can't do her any harm at all to be turned back out into virtually identical conditions to that debut outing. She seems to be on a very workable mark for her first tilt at a handicap and I'm confident that she'll do the business for us, Messrs de Sousa & bin Suroor and the whole Godolphin outfit.

So, with all this in mind, I'm more than happy to place a 1pt win bet on Hidden Gold at 3/1 BOG with Coral. A handful of bookies are currently offering the same price, as you'll see if you just...

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Stat of the Day, 10th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2014

Once again, Mia San Triple was placed without winning taking her career form line to 3232. She stayed on well at the end to close within a length and a half of the winner who had got first run on her. It might have been a different story had she been a little closer to the action on the home turn, but it wasn't to be.

It might be a little bit repetitive, but a 2nd place finish at 3/1 BOG on a horse sent off at 9/4 will make decent profits in the long run, Friday just wasn't our day. The last few weeks have still been great and the figures for the 30 months since the start of SotD are excellent and I aim to add to them in the...

2.25 Haydock:

Which is a Class 3 handicap over a mile, where Kieran Fallon will ride the handicap debutant Active Spirit for Saeed Bin Suroor. He steps this one up from her 6 furlongs maiden victory at Pontefract almost four weeks ago when he was an impressive winner by five lengths on his racecourse bow.

Active Spirit is priced up at 3/1 BOG in most places and I'm backing him, because...

1. Last season was a good one for Saeed Bin Suroor here at Haydock with seven of his nineteen runners priced at 8/1 or shorter going on to win. This 36.8% strike rate produced a tidy profit of 11.2pt, the equivalent of 59% of all stakes invested.

2. Haydock has also been a happy hunting ground for Kieran Fallon in the past, with an overall strike rate of just under 17.9% (15 winners from 84) and an ROI of 27.35% courtesy of the 23pts profit his winners have produced.

3. Saeed Bin Suroor is one of the best around when it comes to preparing a horse for his/her handicap debut and over the lat five years 53 of his 201 first-time handicappers have won for a strike rate of 26.4% and level stakes profits of 55.12pts (+27.42% ROI). These includes all the runners at all odds, so we need to drill down to ensure the stats aren't skewed by one (or two!) big winner(s). So, we apply some simple odds filters as follows...

Evens to 12/1 : 51/164 (31.1% SR) for 88.7pts (+54.1% ROI) profit.
Evens to 6/1 : 42/123 (36.6% SR) for 65.2pts (+53.0% ROI) profit.
Evens to 4/1 : 34/96 (38.3% SR) for 31.8pts (+33.1% ROI) profit.

So we can see that this angle is profitable at all odds.

4. This trainer is also quite happy to step up his horses up in trip for their handicap debuts and he has done this to good effect over the last five years when stepping up 76 horse by up to an extra 2.5 furlongs for their handicap debuts. 28 of the 76 were victorious for a strike rate of 36.84% and the profits realised of 59.44pts represent a 78.2% return above stakes.

Once again we should look further into the bare stats to ensure profitability at lower odds, hence...

Evens to 12/1 : 28/68 (41.2% SR) for 67.4pts (+99.2% ROI) profit.
Evens to 6/1 : 25/52 (48.1% SR) for 46.1pts (+88.7% ROI) profit.
Evens to 4/1 : 21/41 (51.2% SR) for 29.8pts (+72.7% ROI) profit.

Yet again, we can see that this angle is profitable at all odds.

5.  Over the last four years, runners in handicap races at Class 3 or worse here at Haydock, whose last outing was a win in a maiden have won 23 of 134 outings, a 17.2% strike rate yielding 28.1pts profit, an ROI of 21%.

As this is just Active Spirit's second outing, there's not a great deal we can tell you about him, but he was highly impressive when winning first time out. It was an effortless victory by a good five lengths and it really could have been as far as he and his jockey wanted. He looked to have plenty in the tank and shouldn't be too bothered about the extra quarter-mile.

He's by Pivotal, whose milers are profitable to back and his offspring don't usually mind some give in the ground. So, with all this in mind, I've placing a 1pt win bet on Active Spirit at 3/1 BOG. I'm using SkyBet for this one, but the price is widely available, so why not...

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Stat of the Day, 25th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2014

It was a good day for us yesterday, as we recorded yet another win in this extraordinary purple patch for SotD.

Dinneratmidnight quickened nicely inside the final furlong to beat the 33/1 shot Byron's Gold by a length and a slight drift out to an SP of 9/2 put an extra half point in the coffers, after I'd suggested a play at 4/1 BOG.

I've not mentioned it for a while, but it is imperative that you use the BOG option to ensure getting the best returns possible. If that means having lots of betting accounts, then so be it. They're not difficult to set up really, but if you don't want the hassle, then here at geegeez, we've got a special software tool which takes the hard (and dull) work of opening accounts, and makes it easy.

You fill out a single form, and our software does the rest, opening up to twelve accounts for you with all the major bookmakers. Just click here to put it to work for you.

Now onto Friday's selection, which runs in the...

4.55 Sandown:

Where I've just taken 9/2 BOG on the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Elite Army, who will today be ridden by Silvestre de Sousa. Today is just the second time the horse has appeared and he was a winner over a mile at Kempton on debut back in November. He steps up a couple of furlongs today for his handicap debut.

1. Saeed Bin Suroor has a good record with horses making their handicap debut. In the last six seasons, 164 of his horses have made their handicap debuts at odds of 12/1 or shorter with 51 (31.1% SR) of them going on to win at the first time of asking, generating level stakes profits of 88.7pts, an ROI of 54.1%. The record at 6/1 or under is an excellent 45/123 (36.6% SR) for 65.2pts (+53% ROI)

2. His handicap debutants also perform well when asked to step up in trip from their last run. In the last six seasons and once again at odds of 12/1 or shorter: horses stepping in trip by 0.5 furlongs to 2.5 furlongs (2f today) have won 27 of 70 races with that 38.6% strike rate netting backers 64.9pts (+92.8% ROI) profits. And the results with a 6/1 odds cap are as follows: 24 winners from 54 (44.44% SR) for 43.6pts profit (+80.8% ROI).

3. Silvestre de Sousa is in the saddle today and he has performed well on board this trainer's horses in the past. To date, he has ridden 66 winners from the 233 horses priced between evens and 6/1 with the 28.3% strike rate producing reasonable level stakes profits of 36.1pts, a return of almost 15.5% above stakes. It's not earth shattering, but it's far better than the bank pays. This year alone, he is 4/7 on the Suroor string, bringing in 9.6pts to the bottom line to a yard in good form (5 wins and 3 placed from 11 runners this year so far.)

As this is only Elite Army's second outing, there's not much to tell, other than he shaped like he wanted further when staying on to win on debut and his breeding suggests this should also be the case. He's a son of Derby winner Authorized out of a dam who stayed 1m2f & 1m3f from her racing days in Germany, so you'd imagine that today's trip will end up being his bare minimum from now on, assuming all goes well today, of course!

There's enough for me to go on here and I'm more than happy to place a 1pt win bet on Elite Army at 9/2 BOG and I'm reinvesting some of yesterday's winning back with Bet365, but to see what the other firms are offering, simply...

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Doncaster Trainer Stats:

Lanigan

David Lanigan Does Well At Donny!

Decent cards up at Doncaster this Friday and Saturday, with the Racing Post Trophy taking centre stage – We highlight four yards with excellent track stats on Town Moor, plus a few big stables you might want to avoid. Read more

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2013

Melvin The Grate ran a decent enough race yesterday and although he maintained October's 100% place strike rate (it now reads 221213), his third place in a tight 4-way battle for the lead wasn't enough to swell our coffers further.

We did however get the value price with the 9/2 early odds about a 3/1 favourite and that is the long-term way of beating the bookies.

There's precious little form to go off for today's selected race, but I do have an absolute stack of stats to support today's runner in the...

2.40 Leicester

Which is a Class 4 Fillies' Maiden for 2 yr olds over 7 furlongs. Three of the eleven runners have already been seen a total of four times in the past and none has exactly covered themselves in glory, whilst the other eight runners (including ours!) are making their racecourse debut today.

I've backed Arabian Beauty at 4/1 with William Hill, a price that probably won't last long either.

Arabian Beauty is a half-sister to dual group 1 winner Rio de la Plata and she is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and will be ridden by Silvestre de Sousa on her first outing. As I said, no form to work with, but I've lots of numbers to throw at you! Finding a fitting starting point is the hardest part here.

Let's first look at Saeed Bin Suroor's record in 2yo Fillies' Maidens since 2009. If we impose a general odds cap of 8/1 (we rarely go over 8's for SotD!) we see that he has trained 39 winners from 112 runners, a strike rate of 34.8% and the profits return of 37.4pts (+33.4% ROI) would be enough to make this runner a selection anyway.

However, let's also dig further into the yard's success with 2 yr olds on debut:
From 2011 to 2013: 34 winners from 141 at all odds = 24.1% strike rate and 29.7pts level stakes profit = 21.1% ROI.

From those 141 winners, a couple of simple odds filters reduces the number of runners, but increases both the strike rate and the profitability as follows:
13/8 to 6/1 only: 22/76 = 28.9% SR for 26.4pts = 34.8% ROI
13/8 to 4/1 only: 16/47 = 34% SR and profits of 16.5pts = 35.1% ROI

But, I'm not done there! Since 2009, Saeed Bin Suroor has a 30% strike rate in all maiden races (212 winners from 707) for reasonable profits of 99pts or 14% of stakes.

When a simple odds filter of only taking those priced between evens and 9/2, we arrive at figures of 142 winners from 396 (35.9% SR) for profits of 118.4pts (+29.9% ROI)

And we can break those 396 runners down as follows:
2 yr olds only: 96/256 = 37.5% SR : profit of 95.2pts = 37.2% ROI
Fillies only: 43/120 = 35.8% SR : profit of 41.8pts or 34.8% of stakes invested
2 yr old fillies: 29/78 = 37.2% SR for 33pts (+42.3% ROI) profit.

And finally (!) I should also add that today's jockey Silvestre de Sousa has a fantastic record on 2yr olds running in races of today's 7 furlongs or less.

Since 2008, he has won on board 99 of the 312 such runners priced at 6/1 or under, strike rate of 31.7% which has produced level stakes profits of 75.3pts, an ROI of 24.1%, whilst the stats for 2013 alone are 22/64 (34.4% SR) for 19pts (+29.7% ROI) profit.

I've placed a 1pt win bet on Arabian Beauty at 4/1 with William Hill, so why not join me? Alternatively, you can always...

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Here is today's racecard!

 

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2013

Mitcd was very disappointing all round yesterday. She drifted out from our advised 6/1 to an SP of 8/1 and never featured. In fact she only beat one other runner home.

Little point dwelling on a poor result, as we head south down the A1 for a reunion with some familiar names/faces in the...

2.20 Pontefract

For the opening race on the card, a twelve-runner, Class 4 maiden for two-year olds. Only four of the entrants have raced before (a total of five runs between them) and Torchlighter's second place at Yarmouth (beaten by a neck) eight days ago is the only discernible piece of form.

As such, he is highly likely to be set off as favourite, but I'm going to oppose him with the unraced My Target, trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and ridden by Mickael Barzalona.

We've turned to this trainer/jockey combination to good effect in the past, but it's not the combo that forms the backbone of the stats behind today's pick, as they have only combined twice at Pontefract in the past.

Saeed Bin Suroor, however, has an excellent record at this track despite not overloading it with runners. He has had 19 winners from the 64 horses he has sent here prior to today for a strike rate a shade under 30% and profits of 9.36pts (+14.63% ROI) have been recorded at all odds.

All 19 winners were priced below 8/1, ideal for SotD purposes (:D) and came from just 55 runners, a strike rate of 34.6% for profits of 18.36pts, a return of just over a third of any stakes invested.

Saeed is of course well-known for his ability to get two-year olds out and winning on debut, as a record of 34 wins from 134 debutants over the last three seasons has shown. That's just over a quarter of all his two-year old debutants going on to win at the first time of asking, yielding a more than respectable ROI of 27.4% via 36.7pts profit at level stakes.

Without filtering those results down too far, we can simply impose a 12/1 cut off point, which rids us of 10 losing bets, moving the figures to 34/124 (27.4% SR) for 46.7pts (+37.7% ROI).

One last set of numbers to throw in the mix is that Saeed bin Suroor hasn't sent any two-year olds to Pontefract since 17th October 2011, but in the preceding three seasons (ie 2009/11) he had four winners from the dozen he did send.

There's very little to tell you about the horse, My Target, himself, as he's never raced before. I can, however, tell you that he is a half-brother to Questing, who has won three Group 1 contests in the USA and also won on debut and is out of Cape Cross from a dam (Chercheuse) who was herself a winner in Listed company over both today's 6f trip and also at 7f.

Current best BOG price is 11/4 with BetVictor, but 5.0 is available on the Betfair exchange, so I'd advise you to...

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The card for today's race is right here!