Tag Archive for: Sam Twiston-Davies

Jockey Profiles: Brian Hughes & Sam Twiston-Davies

This is the fourth article in a series looking at the performance of some of top National Hunt jockeys. In this one I will be looking at Sam Twiston-Davies and Brian Hughes. Previously I've looked at:

Nico de Boinville and Harry Cobden

Harry Skelton and Sean Bowen

Rachael Blackmore, Paul Townend and Jack Kennedy

I have analysed NH data for UK racing from 1st Jan 2016 to 31st Oct 2023. The main vehicle for my data gathering has been the Geegeez Query Tool, but I have also used the Geegeez Profiler when required. All the profits/losses quoted are to Industry SP, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate. All the tables include A/E indices. In addition, when data has been pulled from the Geegeez Profiler Tool, I have also shared PRB figures (Percentage of Rivals Beaten).

Let's start with Sam Twiston-Davies.

Sam Twiston-Davies Overall Record

Let me first share Sam's overall stats by looking at his performance on every runner during the period of study:

 

 

On average Twiston-Davies rides around 650 times a year, which is much higher than any jockey I have looked at to date. His figures are reasonable, winning on roughly one in six rides, with a PRB figure of 0.56; but his A/E index is just below ‘average’ for all jockeys. Losses to SP stand at just over 21p in the £. This drops to 9p in the £ to BSP.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Year

Let's see what the yearly stats show. Here is a breakdown by both win, and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

As the graph indicates, his best two years in terms of win and each way percentage were in 2016 and 2017. This is because he was riding regularly for Paul Nicholls then and 42% of his rides in those two seasons were for the Ditcheat trainer. 2020 to 2022 showed a dip in overall performance but this year (2023) to date has been much better hitting the mid-17% mark.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Month

Here is a breakdown of his record by month using win strike rate:

 

 

August and September are the best months, while June to September are the best four. The EW (win and placed) strike rates correlate well with June to September seeing SR%s over 40% - the remaining eight months are in the 30s ranging from 31.2% to 38.3%. While it is material that field sizes are at their smalles in NH racing between May and September, concentrating on August and September, and if we focus on horses priced 11/2 or shorter, we almost get to a break-even scenario to SP: 96 wins from 311 qualifiers (SR 30.9%) for a small loss of £4.83 (ROI -1.6%). To BSP that would have turned a small profit of £17.55 (ROI + 5.6%).

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

Now a look at the results by splitting them into different price bands:

 

 

The 'evens or less' group have incurred the least losses to SP, and all other groups have seen losses (ROI) of more than 10p in the £. Horses priced in double figures look best left alone on every measure.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Distance

Moving on now to distance metrics and Sam's record at different distances. I have grouped them into the same four distance bands as in prior articles and below is a graph looking at the win and each way strike rates:

 

 

This graph shows that the shorter the distance the better for Twiston-Davies in terms of strike rate. If we look at the PRB figures (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) they correlate with the win/EW strike rates:

 

 

The two mile and shorter group have also produced the smallest losses to SP and a better A/E index of 0.90.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Race type

Next under the microscope is ST-D's record by race code/type:

 

 

The hurdle and chase results are virtually a carbon copy of each other in terms of strike rate, ROI% and A/E indices. The NH flat races show a very high A/E index, but this is not reflected in the profit/loss figures. For the record, Twiston-Davies has ridden in six hunter chases (no wins).

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Racecourse

I am now going to look at all courses where Twiston-Davies has had at least a hundred rides during the study period. The courses are split into two graphs alphabetically and the win strike rate at each course is shown:

 

 

 

There is quite a range here going from Sandown at 7.4% win rate up to Hereford at 25.6%. His record at Hereford has been excellent with decent profits to SP of £65.51 (ROI +54.1%). The A/E index stands at a very healthy 1.31 and the PRB figure is 0.61. In six of the eight years, Sam's strike rate at the track has exceeded 20% and in five of the eight he has secured a profit.

Fontwell is another course where he has performed well, showing a small blind profit. In chases at the West Sussex track, he has excelled winning 18 of 54 (SR 33.3%) for an SP profit of £19.30 (ROI +35.7%). Indeed, his last six chase rides (up to the time of writing) have been as follows:

 

 

That's six wins in a row with six different trainers!

In contrast he has struggled at Sandown and Newbury, while it has not been easy to get on the board at Aintree or Cheltenham either, though in the latter cases that is true for almost all jockeys.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Trainer

Here is a list of trainers for whom Twiston-Davies has ridden at least 80 times for during the period of study. It should be noted that he has had only two rides for Nicholls in the past 24 months.

 

 

His record for Charlie Longsdon is surprisingly poor. Only one trainer was in profit, namely Neil Mulholland, but that is entirely down to a 100/1 winner. With Sam Thomas, the Sam combo has done particularly well in chases hitting a better than 27% win rate and edging into a small profit. His record when riding for his father Nigel is not as good as I had expected with quite significant losses of 27p in the £.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Class of Race

It is time to breakdown Sam's performance now by class of race:

 

 

Class 1 races have the lowest strike rate as one might expect, while Class 3 and 4 races have produced the highest strike rates. A profit has been made in both Class 5 and 6 races, but these figures are skewed a little by a couple of big-priced winners.

 

Sam Twiston-Davies Record by Run Style

Finally on Sam T-D, let me look at his run style splits in terms of win percentages:

 

 

The usual pattern we are used to manifests once more: the nearer to the front he rides early, the better. Twiston-Davies has performed slightly better on hurdling front runners than chasing ones in terms of win percentage - 28% v 24%.

If we examine the A/E figures we can see that they correlate with the win strike rate data as the following chart shows:

 

 

The 'led' A/E index is very solid at 1.00 which suggests these runners are edging towards ‘value’. Horses that raced mid-division or further back early offered punters poor value.

Before winding up the run style stats though, let me share his record when riding the favourite:

 

 

Front-running favourites proved profitable if your crystal ball was in reliable working order, whereas held up favourites lost a whopping 31p in the £.

 

**

Brian Hughes Overall Record

It is time to switch to three-time NH Champion Jockey Brian Hughes and we'll start by looking at his record on all horses in all UK NH races:

 

 

At first glance these figures are slightly better than for Twiston-Davies and, amazingly, he has ridden around 1500 more horses. Indeed, Hughes and Twiston-Davies are the two jockeys who have ridden the most in the UK going back to 2016. Hughes tends to ply his trade mainly in the North as the pie chart below shows. It shows the percentage of rides by region:

 

 

74% of Hughes' rides have come at northern English tracks or in Scotland. He ventures south rarely with just 3% of his total rides being at southern tracks.

Now it is time to break down his data, firstly by year.

Brian Hughes Record by Year

Here is a graphical breakdown by both win, and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

As the graph shows, Hughes has managed a win strike rate of 16% or more in seven of the eight years, with the other year (2017) just below at 15.8. Overall, his performance year in year out has been quite consistent. There is a difference of only 4.4% between the highest yearly EW SR% and the lowest yearly one.

Brian Hughes Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

Let us see whether any market / price patterns can be found by breaking down his results by Starting Price bands:

 

 

The 16/1 or bigger horses look a ‘no no’, while those priced between 11/10 and 13/8 have produced the best returns; but there doesn't seem to be any SP bias going on here.

 

Brian Hughes Record by Distance

A dive next into Brian's record at different distances. I have grouped them into the same four distance bands I did earlier and am looking at the win and each way strike rates:

 

 

There does seem a clear distance bias here with the longest distance band of three miles or more performing well below the other three distance groupings. In these longer races Hughes has seen losses equating to 32p in the £, compared with the 2m1f-2m2f losses of just 9p in the £. It is time to look at the PRB figures now:

 

 

As the table shows the PRB figures correlate well with the win and each way strike rates, with performance much stronger to around two and a half miles and dropping off thereafter.

 

Brian Hughes Record by Race type

Now let's analyse Hughes' record in hurdle races, chases and in bumpers:

 

 

Chases and hurdle races offer extremely similar looking stats as far as strike rate ROI, and A/E are concerned. The results in bumpers (NH Flat) are slightly better. There is a big difference in these bumpers results when comparing male horses to female horses:

 

 

Males have outperformed females by nearly 8% in terms of strike rate, the A/E indices also strongly favour males as does the ROI%. Losses of just 8p in the £ for males compared with nearly 36p for female runners. It's hard to explain this disparity (the overall difference in bumpers is males 11.6% win and females 9.1%), and it might simply be down to a quirk of the relatively small female sample size.

Before moving on, it may or may not be worth noting that Hughes has ridden in five hunter chases, winning one.

 

Brian Hughes Record by Racecourse

Below is a table of all tracks where Hughes has had at least 100 rides. The courses are listed alphabetically:

 

 

Given his total number of rides, it should come as no surprise that Hughes has ridden over 100 times at so many different tracks. Aintree has not been a particularly successful hunting ground, nor has Haydock. Three courses have edged into a blind profit – Bangor, Southwell, and Stratford. Of those three, the Stratford stats are the most solid as Hughes has been profitable when focusing in on horses racing there that started in the top three in the betting. This subset of runners has won 25 from 87 (SR 28.7%) for a profit of £4.95 (ROI +5.7%).

The Musselburgh stats are strong, too, with a near break-even scenario. Again, focusing on horses from the top three in the betting at the Scottish track we get the following results: 80 wins from 260 rides (SR 30.8%) for a small SP profit of £7.49 (ROI +2.9%). Market Rasen and Worcester are two other venues where Hughes has made a profit with runners from the top three in the betting.

 

Brian Hughes Record by Trainer

During the period of study, Hughes has 100-plus rides with eleven trainers – one of these, Keith Dalgleish, has taken a sabbatical so here are the stats for the other ten:

 

 

Hughes is stable jockey for Donald McCain, and they have combined to hit a better than one-in-five win rate. The PRB figure of 0.60 is also noteworthy. With McCain his record has been better in hurdle races and the pair have combined to profitable effect at BSP over the smaller obstacles. There are three courses to note when Hughes is on a McCain runner – Bangor, Musselburgh, and Perth. All three have produced excellent win strike rates (27.9%, 27.2% and 32.8%), and all have provided SP profits.

Brian Ellison, James Ewart, Charlie Longsdon and Nicky Richards are four other trainers for whom he has performed well.

 

Brian Hughes Record by Class of Race

It is time to breakdown his performance now by class of race:

 

 

As we have often seen during this series, Class 1 races have produced the poorest results. Outside of the top level, Hughes has been consistent regardless of class bracket.

 

Brian Hughes Record by Run Style

The final stop is run style starting with the splits in terms of win percentages:

 

 

A near 30% strike rate on front runners continues the theme we have consistently seen throughout this series of articles. Backing all Hughes hold up runners would have set you back nearly 40p in the £.

Hughes' A/E indices by run style show a similar pattern although there is little in it between the prominent and mid-division groups:

 

 

Finally, let me share his run style win percentages when riding the favourite:

 

 

Incredibly, Hughes-ridden favourites which led have won more often than now and would have yielded a good profit if predicted pre-race. Held up jollies incurred painful losses of over 33%.

Main Takeaways

It is time to bring this fourth National Hunt jockey article to a close but before doing so, below is a table featuring some of the main takeaways to note regarding Sam Twiston-Davies and Brian Hughes. I hope I have uncovered some useful angles, both positive and negative for both jockeys.

Good luck.

- DR



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The Real Whacker hangs on in Brown Advisory thriller

The Real Whacker made every yard to give Patrick Neville a fairytale victory in a thrilling edition of the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham.

A winner at the Prestbury Park track on both of his previous outings this term, including the ‘Dipper’ over shorter on New Year’s Day, he was bounced out by Sam Twiston-Davies to take up his customary position at the head of affairs.

The Real Whacker (8-1) produced a clinical round of jumping on the front end, with the Daryl Jacob-ridden Bronn hot on his tail throughout.

Despite Galia Des Liteaux, 5-4 favourite Gerri Colombe and the heavily-backed Sir Gerhard all edging their way into contention when the race began to develop, as the runners turned for home at the bottom of the famous hill it was The Real Whacker and Bronn that were still disputing matters.

Bronn was beaten off after the last, but the drama did not end there as Jordan Gainford conjured up extra from the fast-finishing Gerri Colombe who was staying on strongly as The Real Whacker’s stride began to shorten.

But the line came just in time to give Neville his first winner at the Festival and the inspired Twiston-Davies his first since 2016.

“It was a fantastic race, it’s always a privilege to be asked to ride in these races,” said the delighted winning rider.

“I was lucky to ride him in the Dipper, let alone today as well. Paddy Neville, all the way through, has been a great supporter. He said he was in wicked good nick and fair play, he was absolutely spot on.

“He races in a great manner – although he’s in front and he’s doing a lot of the hard work you’re able to get the breathers in everywhere you want. With his jumping he’s always filling himself up, my God it feels like a long way up the run-in!”

Winning connections of The Real Whacker
Winning connections of The Real Whacker (Mike Egerton/PA)

The Real Whacker had also been under consideration for Friday’s Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup before connections opted to stick to novice company.

Part-owner Davey Mann said: “I thought he was beaten, honestly – I genuinely thought we’d been caught on the line.

“He was there, he jumped well and came up the hill and did everything right. I thought we were beaten, but he stuck his old head out and fair play to him.

“We had him in the Gold Cup and the decision was Paddy’s. He kept it open for a while, but we always thought it would be the Brown Advisory and I think it was the right call.

“Who can say in the last six months that they’ve had three winners in Cheltenham? We had the November meeting, we had New Year’s Day and now we’ve pulled off the Brown Advisory.”

Cheltenham Festival 2023 – Festival Wednesday – Cheltenham Racecourse
David Mann in his red suit (Mike Egerton/PA)

Ahead of The Real Whacker’s New Year’s Day triumph, County Limerick nightclub owner Mann pulled an all-nighter before travelling to Cheltenham and was sporting the same red suit and sunglasses combination for his return to the Cotswolds.

He added: “I bought this suit in Chicago a year ago and I kept it for the first time we were here in Cheltenham.

“Paddy said to me after New Year’s Day ‘keep that suit for March’. I got home, gave it to my girls and said ‘take it to cleaners, leave the plastic on it and leave it for March’!”

The Real Whacker on his way to victory
The Real Whacker on his way to victory (Mike Egerton/PA)

Neville, who is based in Leyburn, said: “It was a long run to the line, but he toughed it out and he’s a lovely horse.

“The ground was a bit soft for him and we were dreading that, but he jumped well and it worked out.

“I was happy with the rhythm he was in and Sam kept him out for the better ground. We made that plan earlier on today and it worked.

“He’s won three times now here – I don’t think I’ll run him anywhere else!

“I trained in Ireland for 15 years and had a couple of good winners, but the last couple of years were tough as I just couldn’t get the owners. Hopefully it will work out better over here.”

Considering future plans, the trainer added: “If we can keep him one piece, we’ll come back here next year for the Gold Cup.

“I was toying with the Gold Cup this year, but we probably made the right decision for the horse because he’d only run six times before today.

“We’ll see how he comes out of this. We might put him away for the summer or we might go to Punchestown and we might go to Listowel in the autumn as it’s one of my favourite tracks.”

Gerri Colombe could not reel in The Real Whacker
Gerri Colombe could not reel in The Real Whacker (Steven Paston/PA)

Gordon Elliott admitted his disappointment in defeat, but retains plenty of faith in the narrow runner-up.

He said: “We’re disappointed, you always want to win but you can’t take anything away from the winner, he jumped out and went along in front the whole way.

“They were probably playing cat and mouse and then looked up and the winner had gone but there’s no taking away from him, the best horse on the day won and there was no excuse.

“Jordan is a bit disappointed but he gave him a great ride. He’s only young and he’s going to have loads of days. We won’t lose faith in Gerri yet.

“He hit the second last on the first circuit and got a bit close to that but apart form that he wasn’t too bad. I’m disappointed but that’s the game we’re in.

“He’s been beaten a short head in a Grade One and a stride after the line he was up by a neck.

“I’d say it’s very difficult for the jockeys with the whip rules, it will be playing on their minds.”



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Second horse disqualified under new whip rules

A second horse has been disqualified under the British Horseracing Authority’s revised whip rules.

Amateur rider James Turner was referred to the Whip Review Committee after finishing second aboard the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Mavis Pike in the Fresh Approach at Vertem Mares’ Open National Hunt Flat Race at Newcastle on Saturday.

Turner was deemed to have used his whip five times over the permitted level of seven, with none of the strikes considered to have been clearly and unequivocally for safety purposes.

As a result the horse is disqualified from the race and Turner is suspended for 20 days, running intermittently from Tuesday 14 March to Monday 24 April.

The new regulations came into full effect on February 13 and the James Moffatt-trained Lunar Discovery was the first horse to be disqualified, with her rider Charlotte Jones banned for 14 days after striking the horse 11 times.

A total of 20 bans were handed out in the first week, with 12 rides referred from February 20-26 and nine suspensions issued so far, with two results pending and one ride found not in breach.

Conor O’Farrell’s ride aboard Knocknamona in the Campbell Handicap Chase at Carlisle came under scrutiny and he was found to have used the whip once above the permitted level and received a four-day suspension running from March 18 to March 21 inclusive.

Warwick Races – Thursday March 31st
William Shanahan fell foul of the new whip rules (David Davies/PA)

On the same card, William Shanahan used his whip twice over the threshold when riding Our Sam in the Cambridge Handicap Hurdle and is therefore banned for seven days from March 14-20 inclusive – meaning he misses any chance of riding at the Cheltenham Festival.

Conditional rider Philip Armson received a 14-day ban and a £650 fine for overuse of the whip during his winning ride on Gwencily Berbas in the Virgin Bet Devon National Handicap Chase, with the suspension running from March 14-27 inclusive.

Alice Proctor, an amateur, was also handed a 11-day ban for her ride on Golden Poet, having been found to have used her whip when out of contention in the Maurice Broadway 70th Birthday Celebration Open Hunters’ Chase at Taunton.

High-profile riders Sam Twiston-Davies and Tom Cannon were both given suspensions for rides at Lingfield and Market Rasen on Supasunrise and Presenting A Queen respectively.

Doncaster Races – Wednesday February 22nd
Tom Cannon (Mike Egerton/PA)

Both will serve four-day bans for using their whips without giving their mounts time to respond, ruling them out March 18-21 inclusive, but leaving them free to take their rides at the Festival.

A BHA spokesperson said: “Jockeys are clearly quickly adapting to the new rules, and we praise them for this.

“We hope all jockeys realise that using the whip without regard for the thresholds in place could very easily lead to disqualification, and to ensure that this does not happen.

“There is no justification for using the whip four times or more above the permitted level.”



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Twiston-Davies team targeting more Trial success with Move It

I Like To Move It will attempt to follow in the footsteps of a previous Nigel Twiston-Davies inmate by winning the New One Unibet Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday.

The race, registered as the Champion Hurdle Trial, was won by former Grand Farm inhabitant The New One for four successive years between 2015 and 2018.

Twiston-Davies and his son Sam also teamed up to win the race in 2020 so are searching for a sixth victory in 10 years in the Grade Two.

With testing ground assured, I Like To Move It will be looking to bounce back after finishing only sixth in the Relkeel Hurdle over two miles and five furlongs last time out.

Prior to that he had won the Greatwood Hurdle under top weight of 12st.

Sam Twiston-Davies said: “Obviously, it didn’t work out in the Relkeel at Cheltenham last time. He has come out of it fine and we have learned a good deal more about him.

“We are looking forward to Saturday. Haydock and soft ground will suit him, hopefully, all being well.”



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