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Double Dutch, 5th March 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 5th March 2014

After a string of near-misses where we kept finding just the one winner, we had a much better day yesterday. Rhymers Stone was backed in from our advised 5/2 and was sent off at 15/8 and the market was proved right, as he stayed on well to win by half a length, taking his record on soft ground to 3 wins from 4.

Race 2 was a strange, but satisfactory affair though.On the turn for home, the eventual winner Rugged Jack was way off the pace in last of the 5 still running and at least 25 lengths behind the leader, whilst Revaader was the only horse not being driven. As they approached the 3rd from home, Revaader was travelling really well and looked a shoo-in to finally break her duck at the 17th attempt.

She was a good six or seven lengths clear and coasting, but her front legs buckled under her on landing and the race was gone. Rugged jack, meanwhile found something from nowhere and outstayed the others to get home by two lengths. The icing on the cake was a drift from our 9/4 price out to 11/4, making for a nice 12.13/1 double.

The cherry on the icing on the cake was Stat of the Day's earlier 6/1 winner (reduced to 5.4/1 after Rule 4) and I mention this, because I know that many of you like to do the treble and yesterday's was settled at a very attractive 83/1 and SotD also highlighted another 4/1 BOG winner to boot.

SotD is just one of many features available to Geegeez Gold Members and access to this section is just 40p per day, cheaper and much more informative than a daily newspaper. Click here for more details.

Tuesday's DD results were as follows:

Rhymers Stone: won at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Light The City: 3rd at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
---------------------------------
Rugged Jack: won at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Revaader: fell at 11/10 (adv 2/1)

Results to date:
169 winning selections from 598 = 28.26%
56 winning bets in 158 days = 35.44%

Stakes: 312.00pts
Returns: 354.19pts

P/L : +42.19pts (+13.52% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

We're back above he 40pt barrier again and I hope to climb towards 50pts with these two chases in North Yorkshire:

2.45 Catterick:

Tiny Dancer is the current 15/8 BOG favourite with Stan James to land this contest and it's not hard to see why. He was last seen three weeks ago putting himself 24 lengths ahead of his nearest rival at Ayr and although this is another half mile further, he has already demonstrated that he stays this far by finishing second at Carlisle over this trip on his penultimate outing. His jumping was admittedly, a little sketchy that day, but it was his first effort over fences and he's entitled to come on for the experience.

If his jumping lets him down today, though, I'd expect Harris to be the one to take advantage. This one is coming into some decent form and won a hurdles race over today's track and trip a week before Christmas, before making his chase debut here over course and distance just over three weeks ago. he was fairly well beaten (22 lengths) that day, but stayed on well to hold on to second place with the winner Pinerolo going on to win again next time out at a higher level (Class 2).

He's another whose jumping is expected to improve for the benefit of a second crack at fences and prior course experience might be telling factor here today and Harris can be backed at 9/4 BOG with Boylesports.

*

4.15 Catterick:

Dark And Dangerous is an interesting entrant here, running in a handicap chase for the first time (but not his first effort over fences) and despite going off the boil in five hurdles races since finishing 1st and then 2nd ten months ago, could well have found a way back to form. He ran second at Newton Abbot last May off a mark of 119 on the back of a Ffos Las win off 115, but is rated at just 105 here today, some 23lbs lower than when contesting the Fred Winter almost two years ago. The fact he was even there shows there's ability about him and at 11/4 BOG, he's probably one of the better options in what looks a pretty poor contest.

The best recent form, however, comes from Endeavor, who would be my fancy here at 5/2 BOG. He has won 10 races to date, which is more than his four rivals have done between them and was a very creditable fourth at Musselburgh last time out. He was beaten by less than 9 lengths in total that day 3 weeks ago despite weakening late on. The drop back by 4 furlongs should help a horse who has already won here at Catterick albeit over hurdles and his best form comes at these shorter trips on good to soft ground, so conditions should be ideal for him here.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Tiny Dancer / Endeavor @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
Tiny Dancer / Dark And Dangerous @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Harris / Endeavor @  9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : generally)
Harris / Dark And Dangerous @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : generally)

Stat of the Day Update, 30/9/13 to 6/10/13

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 30/9/13 to 6/10/13

Final figures of a 26.67% strike rate (via 8 winners from 30) and an ROI of almost 16% (via 4.75pts profit) are pretty decent returns for September, but I have to hold my hands up and admit that the month rather went out with a whimper than a bang.

I actually failed to find a winner in the last 10 days of the month, so it shows how well we did in the first three weeks of a notoriously difficult month to tip in.

October is probably harder still, but we've hit the ground running with some good selections providing a level of consistency so far. We're five bets into the month and the results look like this: 22121. The winners have been at decent prices (4/1 & 11/4), whilst the three runner-up horses weren't disgraced by any means.

We'll obviously be looking to continue the current fine run, so stay tuned!

Selections & Results: 30/9/13 to 6/10/13

30/09: 3.20 Newton Abbot: To The Sky (advised 8/1 BOG) : 4th at 7/1
01/10: 2.20 Sedgefield: Wakanda (advised 5/2 BOG) : 2nd at 9/4
02/10: 3.10 Newcastle: Fanoos (advised 3/1 BOG) : 2nd at 7/2
03/10: 4.20 Bangor: Dreams And Songs (advised 11/1 E/W BOG) : non-runner
04/10: 4.15 Ascot: Ballinderry Boy (advised 4/1 BOG) : won at 9/4
05/10: 2.55 Newmarket: Validus (advised 7/2 BOG) : 2nd at 3/1
06/10: 5.05 Uttoxeter: Hail Tiberius (advised 5/2 BOG) : won at 11/4

30/9 to 6/10:
2 winning bets from 6
P/L: +2.75pts

September:
8 winners from 30 = 26.67% S.R
P/L: +4.75pts
POI = +15.83%

October:
2 winners from 5 = 40.00% S.R
P/L: +3.75pts
POI = +75.00%

Overall:
184 winners from 646 = 28.48% S.R
P/L: +109.55pts
ROI: +16.96%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +121.55pts from a 647pt outlay = +18.79% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 23rd to 29th September 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 23/09/13 to 29/09/13

September's rollercoaster nature is in full view once again as SotD went from the sublime to the ridiculous this week.

We hit three winners in four days in the middle of last week, making 8.5pts in the process.

We have since had nine consecutive losing bets for an actual net loss of 1.5pts over the last fortnight!

In fairness, though, a 0/7 return doesn't tell the whole story.

Both Saturday's and Sunday's runners only went down by a mere head at decent prices and it was the head again that prevented us from getting an E/W payout on Monday.

In addition to the narrow defeats, we should add that all bar two of our selections were sent off at considerably shorter odds that we'd advised.

The main things to take from this week, are a reminder of how fine the margins are between success and failure and that getting the best price available is key.

Selections & Results: 23/09/13 to 29/09/13

23/09: 5.15 Tipperary: Roman Romance (advised 13/2 E/W BOG) : 4th at 9/2
24/09: 3.50 Newton Abbot: Western King (advised 5/1 BOG) : 3rd at 7/2
25/09: 2.40 Redcar: Mitcd (advised 6/1 BOG) : unplaced at 8/1
26/09: 2.20 Pontefract: My Target (advised 11/4 BOG) : unplaced at 9/4
27/09: 8.40 Wolverhampton: Royal Peculiar (advised 4/1 BOG) : 4th at 11/2
28/09: 9.00 Wolverhampton: Living The Life (advised 6/1 BOG) : 2nd at evens
29/09: 2.15 Epsom: Mime Dance (advised 5/1 BOG) : 2nd at 11/4

23/09 to 29/09:
0 winning bets from 7
P/L: -7.00pts

September:
8 winners from 29 = 27.59% S.R
P/L: +5.75pts
POI = +19.83%

Overall:
182 winners from 640 = 28.44% S.R
P/L: +106.80pts
ROI: +16.69%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +118.80pts from a 641pt outlay = +18.53% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 16th to 22nd September 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 16/09/13 to 22/09/13

Despite petering out with a poor run on Saturday and an early faller on Sunday, it was a pretty good week for SotD. The five weekday selections yielded three winners (4/1, 3/1 & 5/2) to help us to a weekly profit of 5.5pts.

The two losing weekday selections were by no means disgraced either: Dr Irv ran a good race to finish 3rd at 4/1 on Monday, whilst Wednesday's Irish contender was a 14/1 E/W shot that, despite finishing 5th of the 11 runners, was only a length behind the winner.

If only, eh?

Selections & Results: 16/09/13 to 22/09/13

16/09: 3.10 Musselburgh: Dr Irv (advised 9/2 BOG) : 3rd at 4/1
17/09: 6.05 Stratford: Letsby Avenue (advised 7/2 BOG) : won at 3/1 (collected at SP, due to R4!)
18/09: 2.55 Listowel: Srucahan (advised 14/1 E/W BOG) : unplaced (5th) at 12/1
19/09: 4.00 Pontefract: Jubilante (advised 4/1 BOG) : won at 3/1
20/09: 4.50 Newbury: Tawhid (advised 5/2 BOG) : won at 15/8
21/09: 8.50 Wolverhampton: Platinum Proof (advised 6/1 BOG) : unplaced at 11/2
22/09: 3.30 Plumpton: Jayandbee (advised 9/4 BOG) : fell at 11/8

16/09 to 22/09:
3 winning bets from 7
P/L: +5.50pts

September:
8 winners from 22 = 36.36% S.R
P/L: +12.75pts
POI = +57.95%

Overall:
182 winners from 633 = 28.75% S.R
P/L: +113.80pts
ROI: +17.98%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +125.80pts from a 634pt outlay = +19.84% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 9th to 15th September 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 09/09/13 to 15/09/13

It wasn't the best of weeks for SotD, I'm afraid, yet it was far from being our worst! The week kicked off in the same vein as we'd started the month with a very nice 4/1 winner to take the tally to five from nine for the month, but we're still stuck on five winners now.

To use a phrase borrowed from Matt, it was one of those binary weeks ie win or nowhere, as Monday's winner was followed by six unplaced efforts, thanks to a combination of poor runs, misread form by myself, adverse weather affecting the going and also the number of runners etc etc.

We don't, however, use them as excuses and we're just grateful that Monday's winner was priced at 4/1, enabling some damage limitation for the week. In fact, I was quite pleased to get away with a 2pt loss from a week low on quality and consistency.

Selections & Results: 09/09/13 to 15/09/13

09/08: 4.50 Perth: Scotch Warrior (advised 4/1 BOG) : won at 5/2
10/08: 4.00 Redcar: Kiwi Bay (advised 11/2 BOG) : unplaced at 8/1
11/08: 2.00 Doncaster: Finn Class (advised 6/1 E/W BOG) : unplaced at 13/2
12/08: 5.10 Epsom: Mukhabarat (advised 11/4 BOG) : unplaced at 7/2
13/08: 2.30 Sandown: Yaakooum (advised 100/30 BOG) : unplaced at 11/4
14/08: 2.55 Chester: Cameron Highland (advised 100/30 BOG) : unplaced at 2/1
15/09: 3.50 Curragh: Royal Diamond (advised 11/2 BOG) : unplaced at 9/2

09/09 to 15/09:
1 winning bet from 7
P/L: -2.00pts

September:
5 winners from 15 = 33.33% S.R
P/L: +7.25pts
POI = +48.333%

Overall:
179 winners from 626 = 28.59% S.R
P/L: +108.30pts
ROI: +17.30%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +120.85pts from a 627pt outlay = +19.14% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 2nd to 8th September 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 02/09/13 to 08/09/13

We managed to follow-up last week's 3pt gain with a further profit of 5.75pts this week. SotD is in decent nick at present and with four wins from eight in September so far, the 9.25pts return on the month have already more than cancelled out August's losses of 6.6pts.

It was 3 winners & 2 places from this week's seven runners, with one of the placers: Life And Times going into my notebook as one to look at again next time out.

In fact, since the start of July, we're 19.13pts to the good after a disappointing start to the "summer". We are, however, very aware of the cyclical nature of any "tipping" service here at Geegeez and whilst we're always confident of coming good after a bad run, we know what a roller coaster ride racing is. That's why we all love it so much, I think....

Selections & Results: 02/09/13 to 08/09/13

02/08: 2.10 Hamilton: Omanome (advised 7/2 BOG) : unplaced at 7/2
03/08: 5.30 Musselburgh: Captain Royale (advised 7/2 BOG) : won at 4/1
04/08: 2.20 Lingfield: Outback Traveller (advised 11/4 BOG) : won at 7/4
05/08: 2.30 Haydock: Paradise Watch (advised 9/2 BOG) : unplaced at 4/1
06/08: 4.10 Newcastle: Life And Times (advised 7/2 BOG) : 3rd at 5/1
07/08: 3.55 Stratford: Laudatory (advised 3/1 BOG) : won at 11/4
08/09: 3.55 Dundalk: Diyala (advised 2/1 BOG) : 3rd at 7/4

02/09 to 08/09:
3 winning bets from 7
P/L: +5.75pts

September:
4 winners from 8 = 50.00% S.R
P/L: +9.25pts
POI = +115.63%

Overall:
178 winners from 619 = 28.76% S.R
P/L: +110.30pts
ROI: +17.82%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +122.85pts from a 620pt outlay = +19.81% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 26th August to 1st September

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 26/08/13 to 01/09/13

Last week started well with a 2nd place at 15/2, that with hindsight should have been backed each way, but we quickly followed it up with a nice 9/2 winner. We then had four pretty disappointing unplaced efforts in a row, before ending the week on another high, courtesy of a winner at 7/2.

This meant a satisfying 3pts profit for the week, as a whole but an unsatisfactory loss of 6.6pts (over 21% of our stakes) for the month of August and the monthly strike rate of 19.35% was more than 10% lower than our average...

Selections & Results: 26/08/13 to 01/09/13

26/08: 4.10 Ripon: Robert The Painter (advised 13/2 BOG) : 2nd at 15/2
27/08: 3.05 Ripon: Khalice (advised 9/2 BOG) : won at 11/4
28/08: 5.50 Southwell: Kingscombe (advised 6/1 BOG) : unplaced at 6/1
29/08: 5.10 Lingfield: Josefa Goya (advised 9/4 BOG) : unplaced at 3/1
30/08: 5.00 Sandown: Legends (advised 5/1 BOG) : unplaced at 9/2
31/08: 2.30 Beverley: Minalisa (advised 11/1 E/W BOG) : unplaced at 15/2
01/09: 3.30 Brighton: Soryah (advised 7/2 BOG) : won at 11/4

26/08 to 01/09:
2 winning bets from 7
P/L: +3.00pts

August:
6 winners from 31 = 19.35% S.R
P/L: -6.60pts
POI = -21.29%

September:
1 winner from 1 = 100.00% S.R
P/L: +3.50pts
POI = +350%

Overall:
175 winners from 612 = 28.59% S.R
P/L: +104.55pts
ROI: +17.08%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +116.55pts from a 613pt outlay = +19.01% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 19th to 25th August 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 19/08/13 to 25/08/13

Last week proved to be a bit of a mixed bag with two nice winners, two third place finishers (including a 9/1 E/W bet for us) and three unplaced runners. We'd four selections drifting in the market with one doubling in price from 3/1 to 6/1 and was duly unplaced, whilst our last pick of the week was backed in from 9/1 to 4/1 and made us a small 0.4pt profit, courtesy of a third place finish after being backed E/W.

This meant a profit on the week of 4.4pts, which still leaves us with a 6.1pt deficit on the month, but with six days left, who knows?

Selections & Results: 19/08/13 to 25/08/13

19/08: 4.00 Thirsk: Marcus Caesar (advised 6/1 BOG) : 3rd at 13/2
20/08: 3.45 Brighton: Alzavola (advised 2/1 BOG) : unplaced at 15/8
21/08: 4.40 Lingfield: Cape Factor (advised 3/1 BOG) : won at 7/2
22/08: 6.35 Newton Abbot: Cool Macavity (advised 3/1 BOG) : unplaced at 6/1
23/08: 2.45 Newmarket: Stagemanship (advised 11/4 BOG) : unplaced at 5/2
24/08: 2.10 Newmarket: Ghazi (advised 4/1 BOG) : won at 9/2
25/08: 5.00 Goodwood: Bantam (advised 9/1 E/W BOG) : 3rd at 4/1

19/08 to 25/08:
3 winning bets from 7
P/L: +4.40pts

August:
5 winners from 25 = 20.00% S.R
P/L: -6.10pts
POI = -24.40%

Overall:
173 winners from 605 = 28.460% S.R
P/L: +101.55pts
ROI: +16.79%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +113.55pts from a 606pt outlay = +18.74% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 12th to 18th August 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 12/08/13 to 18/08/13

My August frustrations heightened last week, with a week that proved to be one of two halves. I was infuriatingly close in the first part of the week with four consecutive placers, but alas no winners!

Unfortunately, results took a turn for the worse over the weekend, with none of the selections from Friday to Sunday even making the frame and two of them more than doubled in price.

It puts August's chances of profitability in jeopardy and an upturn in results is needed over the next fortnight or so.

Selections & Results: 12/08/13 to 18/08/13

12/08: 7.40 Windsor: Regal Silk (advised 6/4 BOG) : 2nd at 5/6
13/08: 4.15 Carlisle: Mixed Message (advised 4/1 BOG) : 3rd at 9/2
14/08: 4.30 Salisbury: Silk Route (advised 9/2 BOG) : 3rd at 11/4
15/08: 4.30 Salisbury: My Own Way Home (advised 11/4 BOG) : 3rd at 9/4
16/08: 3.20 Newcastle: The Codger (advised 5/1 BOG) : unplaced at 12/1
17/08: 2.30 Doncaster: Psiloveyou (advised 100/30 non-BOG) : unplaced at 11/4
18/08: 3.45 Pontefract: Nargys (advised 4/1 BOG) : unplaced at 10/1

12/08 to 18/08:
0 winning bets from 7
P/L: -7.00pts

August:
2 winners from 18 = 11.11% S.R
P/L: -10.50pts
POI = -58.33%

Overall:
170 winners from 598 = 28.43% S.R
P/L: +97.15pts
ROI: +16.25%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +109.15pts from a 599pt outlay = +18.22% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 5th to 11th August 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 05/08/13 to 11/08/13

August is proving to be a stop-start frustrating affair. We're certainly getting the value from taking the early BOG prices, as none of our seven selections went off at a higher price than we'd advised, with five of them shortening during the day: a couple of them (13/8 to 4/5 and 11/4 to 6/4) moving quite dramatically.

Unfortunately we weren't rewarded with a bunch of winners to go with the price changes, as we only managed the one success on the week. It was disappointing to see four unplaced selections, but the current monthly deficit of 3.5pts is far from insurmountable with another twenty days to go.

Selections & Results: 05/08/13 to 11/08/13

05/08: 8.30 Windsor: Estinaad (advised 13/2 E/W BOG) : unplaced at 6/1
06/08: 8.10 Ripon: Alwilda (advised 13/8 BOG) : 3rd at 4/5
07/08: 2.40 Newcastle: Key Gold (advised 4/1 BOG) : unplaced at 3/1
08/08: 5.30 Yarmouth: Duke of Destiny (advised 2/1 BOG) : unplaced at 2/1
09/08: 3.20 Lingfield: Victorian Number (advised 11/4 BOG) : won at 6/4
10/08: 5.05 Haydock: Big Thunder (advised 7/2 BOG) : unplaced at 7/2
11/08: 3.10 Windsor: Miliika (advised 4/1 BOG) : 2nd at 3/1

05/08 to 11/08:
1 winning bet from 7
P/L: -3.25pts

August:
2 winners from 11 = 18.18% S.R
P/L: -3.50pts
POI = -31.82%

Overall:
170 winners from 591 = 28.76% S.R
P/L: +104.15pts
ROI: +17.62%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +116.15pts from a 592pt outlay = +19.62% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 29th July to 4th August

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 29/07/13 to 04/08/13

Last week was a good one for SotD and its followers, as we managed two winners, an E/W 3rd and two other placed horses from our seven selections, giving us a 5.1pt profit over the course of the week. All of which meant that July's final figures were very impressive indeed.

The final tally for July was a 1 in 3 strike rate (10/30) and a profit at advised BOG prices of almost 16.5pts, a near 55% return on your money. We've already bagged the first of what we hope will be a glut of August winners as we aim to replicate last year's successes at this time.

Selections & Results: 29/07/13 to 04/08/13

29/07: 7.30 Windsor: Maria Lombardi (advised 5/1 BOG) : unplaced at 9/4
30/07: 4.25 Yarmouth: Saigon City (advised 5/2 BOG) : won at 6/1
31/07: 7.30 Sandown: So Beloved (advised 17/2 E/W BOG) : 3rd at 9/2 (+0.35pts)
01/08: 4.30 Nottingham: West End Lad (advised 5/1 BOG) : unplaced at 8/1
02/08: 5.50 Newmarket: Investment Expert (advised 5/2 BOG) : 2nd at 11/4
03/08: 3.30 Newmarket: Urban Dance (advised 11/4 BOG) : won at 5/2
04/08: 4.55 Newmarket: Serenity Spa (advised 4/1 BOG) : 3rd at 11/4

29/07 to 04/08:
3 winning bets from 7
P/L: +5.10pts

July:
10 winners from 30 = 33.33% S.R
P/L: +16.48pts
POI = +54.93%

August:
1 winner from 4 = 25.00% S.R
P/L: -0.25pts
POI = -6.25%

Overall:
169 winners from 584 = 28.94% S.R
P/L: +107.35pts
ROI: +18.38%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +119.35pts from a 585pt outlay = +20.40% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 22nd to 28th July 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 22/07/13 to 28/07/13

This week's bare results weren't anywhere near as good as the previous week, but after a poor start, we hit the crossbar a couple of times, including one at 11/2 that really should have been an E/W saver. Thankfully we'd a nice 7/2 winner on Sunday to keep our weekly loss to a manageable level.

The loss of just 2.5pts on the week guarantees that July will finish in profit and we believe that we'll maintain our success over the long run , when we're consistently backing horses at much longer odds than SP. Our solitary winner of the week was backed at 7/2, yet went off at an SP of 6/4. This proved to be the case on five occasions this week, proving that we're getting value for money on a regular basis.

Selections & Results: 22/07/13 to 28/07/13

22/07: 8.50 Windsor: Nickels And Dimes (advised 3/1 BOG) : unplaced at 2/1
23/07: 4.00 Musselburgh: Burning Thread (advised 5/2 BOG) : unplaced at 100/30
24/07: 3.10 Lingfield: National Poet (advised 3/1 BOG) : unplaced at 2/1
25/07: 7.35 Limerick: Lord Ben (advised 7/2 BOG) : 2nd at 5/2
26/07: 4.05 Uttoxeter: Moon Melody (advised 9/2 BOG) : 2nd at 11/2
27/07: 3.55 Newmarket: Gold Hunter (advised 7/2 BOG) : unplaced at 11/4
28/07: 5.30 Carlisle: Dream Walker (advised 7/2 BOG) : won at 6/4

22/07 to 28/07:
1 winning bet from 7
P/L: -2.50pts

July:
8 winners from 27 = 29.63% S.R
P/L: +11.13pts
POI = +41.22%

Overall:
166 winners from 577 = 28.77% S.R
P/L: +102.25pts
POI: +17.72%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +114.25pts from a 578pt outlay = +19.77% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 15th to 21st July 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 15/07/13 to 21/07/13

I had suggested last week that despite a weekly loss, I felt like we were banging on the door somewhat and that the bare Profit/Loss account wasn't a true reflection of how our picks were running.

This week proved our point to a certain extent as, we managed four winners from the six suggestions this week, putting July's figures into a fair healthier state.

Selections & Results: 15/07/13 to 21/07/13

15/07: 2.45 Newton Abbot: Party Palace (advised 11/4 BOG) : won at 9/2
16/07: 6.00 Kempton: About Turn (advised 5/2 BOG) : won at 5/2
17/07: 2.30 Lingfield: First Secretary (advised 3/1 BOG) : non-runner
18/07: 2.00 Hamilton: Ibecke (advised 11/4 BOG) : 3rd at 9/2
19/07: 6.20 Newmarket: Folk Melody (advised 11/4 BOG) : won at 3/1
20/07: 5.20 Newmarket: Thair (advised 4/1 BOG) : won at 11/4
21/07: 5.10 Redcar: Cross The Boss (advised 4/1 BOG) : u/p at 3/1

15/07 to 21/07:
4 winning bets from 6
P/L: +12.00pts

July:
7 winners from 20 = 35.00% S.R
P/L: +13.63pts
POI = +68.15%

Overall:
165 winners from 570 = 28.95% S.R
P/L: +104.75pts
POI: +18.38%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +116.75pts from a 571pt outlay = +20.45% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 8th to 14th July 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 08/07/13 to 14/07/13

On the face of things, it didn't look like a good week for SotD. The bare facts of just one winner from seven and a loss of 3.25pts over the week looks quite poor. Yet, closer inspection shows we're not a million miles away from being on top of things: we're continuously backing horses at longer odds than their SP or suggested chance of winning and despite backing six losing horses this week, five of them were in the first three home.

In the long run, beating SP will produce profits and although this month's profit is only 1.63pts to date, it still represents a return approaching 12% ROI from a free service.

Selections & Results: 08/07/13 to 14/07/13

08/07: 8.20 Ripon: Bondesire (advised 3/1 BOG) : 3rd at 7/2
09/07: 6.05 Southwell: Sandsman’s Girl (advised 7/2 BOG) : 3rd at 9/4
10/07: 3.40 Yarmouth: Qawaafy (advised 11/4 BOG) : won at 9/4
11/07: 2.10 Newmarket: Figure of Speech (advised 9/2 BOG) : 2nd at 7/2
12/07: 6.10 Chepstow: Taste The Wine (advised 3/1 BOG) : 3rd at 5/2
13/07: 8.05 Salisbury: Dumbarton (advised 5/1 BOG) : 2nd at 5/1
14/07: 2.10 Southwell: Apache Dawn (advised 7/2  BOG) : pulled up at 4/1

08/07 to 14/07:
1 winning bet from 7
P/L: -3.25pts

July:
3 winners from 14 = 21.43% S.R
P/L: +1.63pts
POI = +11.64%

Overall:
161 winners from 564 = 28.55% S.R
P/L: +92.75pts
POI: +16.44%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +104.75pts from a 565pt outlay = +18.54% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day, 13th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th July 2013

Taste The Wine was headed and subsequently beaten with one furlong left of the twelve to run yesterday. Once headed, he had little fight in him and stayed one paced to the end, finishing in third place and beaten by just over 4 lengths. His SP was 5/2 after we'd taken 3/1 in a race his trainer was keen to win. Despite training three of the six runners, he was also disappointed with a return of 2nd, 3rd and 5th.

Wiltshire is our port of call this evening for a four-runner, Class 5 handicap on Good to Firm ground. Tonight's trip is a mile and a half for the small field contesting the...

8.05 Salisbury

Philip Hobbs is very good at taking horses from other yards and getting them to fire on their yard debut. In recent years he has a record of ten winners from thirty-two with horses having their first run for him, having previously turned out for one or more other trainer in the past.

This excellent 31.25% strike rate has translated itself into £341.10 profits to a £10 level stake at betfair SP, a return of  106.6% over stakes.

Of those 32 runners, 22 of them had run ten times or less in their career before moving to Philip's yard and Mr Hobbs has managed to get eight of those twenty-two to win first time out, increasing that already impressive 31.25% strike rate up to 36.4%. This rise is strike rate has been replicated in the profits/returns, with the eight winners producing 27.7pts profit, an ROI of 126%.

Philip has just the one runner today, Dumbarton and he ticks all those boxes for us. Ten starts to date (4 for Sir Michael Stoute and 6 for Gordon Elliott), he makes his debut for his new yard today, after moved a couple of months ago.

The yard have spent the last eight weeks or so getting him ready to run, as he's now been off the track for some 253 days and whilst this can be a problem for some horses, he has actually won in the past after a break of 328 days!

If he's right today, he could upset the apple cart a little as I expect him to be the outsider of four, yet historically, backing the outsider of four in a handicap priced in the 4/1 to 8/1 area (where I expect us to be today!) gives a 15% strike rate and a profit of 20.2% over stakes.

And if he's ready, he shouldn't be found wanting for either speed (has won over a mile on the flat), nor for stamina (won a 2 mile hurdle as recently as last October) and he looks fairly treated on a mark of 71, having run off 76 to 84 in the past. His cause will also be helped by jockey William Twiston-Davies' 5lb claim this evening.

The racecard for this contest is here.

This is a little more speculative than usual and we're expecting this one not to be fancied, but if things fall his way, the 5/1 BOG on offer from bet365 could look very big indeed, but for your preferred bookie...

Click here for the latest betting on the 8.05 Salisbury

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