Tag Archive for: steamers and drifters

Steamers and Drifters: Part 3

/in /by

I was originally not going to do a ‘part 3’, but in the comments a reader asked about early morning odds and if there was any data available in connection with price movement, writes Dave Renham. As that was data I could access, I thought I would do some digging and share my findings. So here goes...

As in the previous two pieces I am focusing on flat and all weather racing in the UK spanning five years from 2018 to 2022. Bookmaker data is taken from William Hill.

If you missed those articles, you can read the overview one here, and the second part here.

 

Change from Early Odds to Starting Price

To begin with I want to look at early morning odds versus opening show odds. Later on, I will be comparing some of this early odds data with SP. As I alluded to in parts one and two the opening show tends to be around ten minutes before the start of the race. Early morning odds tend to be available around 9am. Indeed, these days most bookmakers price up the night before. Alas, I do not have data for this.

Below is a graphic comparing early morning odds to opening show where I am looking at the percentage of all runners that either shorten in price, stay the same price, or lengthen in price:

 

 

As we can see, nearly 53% of all horses drift / lengthen in price, compared with 36.4% who shorten. Roughly one in nine runners see their price stay the same. These figures follow the pattern of previous research but the differential between drifters and shorteners is much bigger.

These data show us that Early Morning Odds are essentially poor value. If your only option is to bet ‘early’ then I would urge you to use a bookmaker that offers BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed). If you can’t, then I would suggest you do not make the wager at early prices. Regularly ‘taking’ Early Odds will probably lose money for over 95% of punters.

When comparing handicaps with non-handicaps the percentages splits are virtually identical (in handicaps 52.7% of horses drift, in non-handicaps it is 52.4%.) so the market behaves in a very similar way from Early Odds to Opening Show regardless of race type.

 

Effect of Early Odds price movement on Strike Rate and Profitability

Now I want to look at the effect price movement from Early Odds to Opening Show has on strike rate and profit/loss. In terms of profit/loss I am going to calculate returns to Betfair Starting Price. I have split the runners like I did earlier into three groups – horses that shorten in price from ‘early’ to ‘opening’, those that stay the same price, and those that lengthen in price.

 

 

There is the same win percentage pattern here that we saw when looking at Opening Odds versus SP in the previous articles: horses that shorten in price have comfortably the best strike rate. In fact, those that shorten are almost twice as likely to win as those horses that drift. In terms of returns to Betfair Starting Price, horses that shortened in price edged it; but there is less than 1% (1p in the £) between the three groups.

So, we have a very even looking starting point in terms of returns / value. Let's push on...

 

Horses that lengthened in price from Early Odds to Opening Show

I want to look in more detail at horses that either drifted in price from Early Odds to Opening Show Odds or went the other way, i.e. shortened in price. Drifters first. I want to know what percentage of these horses continued to drift in price from Opening Show to SP, having already drifted from the morning price to the first one available on the show ten minutes or so before the 'off'. Here are the splits:

 

 

As we can see, 42.1% of horses that lengthened in price from ‘early’ to ‘opening’ continued to drift out in price. So, there is more chance that the drift will continue compared with the other two scenarios. Roughly a third of these horses shortened, while a quarter remained the same price.

Below are the strike rates and returns for this cohort:

 

 

Don’t be fooled by thinking the best value has been with the horses that initially lengthened in price and then stayed the same odds. These figures include BSP winners at prices of 1000.0, 538.81, 403.45 and 358.50. Taking those out the ROI was around -6%.

 

Horses that have shortened in price from Early Odds to Opening Show

A look at the converse group next, those shortening from the morning to opening show, to give us a comparison. Firstly, a look at what happened between Opening Show and SP in terms of percentage splits:

 

 

Horses that shorten from Early Odds to Opening Show are still more likely to subsequently drift than to continue to shorten. However, the percentages for the horses that shortened and those that drifted are the closest they have been in any of the comparisons made, either in this article or the previous two – there is less than a 5% differential between the groups.

Strike rates and returns for these runners are below:

 

 

The strike rates are much higher in this table than the previous one and it seems that horses that shorten initially and then drift on course are slightly better value than the rest. This time the figures for the ‘best’ group are not skewed by huge 300.0 plus BSP winners.

 

Early priced favourites

This is a new departure in terms of what I have looked at previously but I thought it would be interesting to see what happened to horses that were initially favourite on the 'morning line'. I have focused on those horses that were solely at the head of the betting market (no joint or co-favourites) in the morning. Firstly, a look at how all such runners fared:

 

 

The strike rate exceeds 30% which suggests most of the horses remained as favourite. Losses are very modest at just over 2p in the £. If we split these by race type, we get the following:

 

 

Horses that were clear favourite in non-handicaps as the markets opened in the morning have got close to breaking even, which is eye-catching. The difference in strike rate is to be expected, but I had expected that the returns would be very close to the same.

Earlier I suggested that most of the early favourites are likely to have remained favourite at the off (SP) – let's see if that assertion was correct:

 

 

As expected, the figures back up the hypothesis. Nearly two thirds of these runners remained clear favourite at the start of the race and 86.7% of them were either clear favourite, joint favourite or 2nd favourite.

What was even more interesting, though, is what I discovered when I looked at the profit/loss figures in terms of their final market position. Horses that ended up outside the top two in the betting (eg. 3rd fav+ at SP) edged into profit. The strike rate was down as you would expect at 13.1%, (530 wins from 3804 runners, around one winner in eight), but a miniscule profit of £5.41 (ROI +0.1%) was achieved. We have seen in the first two articles that drifters have tended to offer more value – here is another case in point, albeit not a bankable one in isolation.

 

Trainers – Early Odds v SP

To finish off this piece I want to look at some raw trainer data, comparing their respective runners' Early Odds to SP. I have chosen 45 trainers and compared win strike rates and A/E indices for their runners within the three groups: horses that shortened from morning odds to SP, horses that stayed the same price in that time frame, and horses that drifted from morning odds to SP. I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher (in green) – these are essentially positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are essentially negative:

 

 

As one would expect, most trainers have a significant difference in strike rate when comparing drifters to horses that shorten in price. Stuart Williams for example has a three times better strike rate with his horses that shorten in price compared to his drifters (19.01 v 6.28). Indeed, his runners that have shortened in price have made a small profit of around 4p in the £.

Julie Camacho seems to be a trainer to note if her runners shorten from early odds to SP. She has had 451 runners that have contracted in price, of which 86 have won, producing a healthy £99.59 profit to BSP. This equates to impressive returns of 22p in the £.

In terms of Early Odds to SP drifters, Brian Ellison runners that fit that profile look worth avoiding: 44 wins from 838 qualifiers showing hefty losses of £341.35 (ROI -40.7%). Likewise, Ed Dunlop has a similarly poor record with drifters thanks to only 77 wins from 1195 (SR 6.4%) for a loss to BSP of £440.90 (ROI -36.9%).

A few trainers have made profits with their drifters, but many have been helped by the occasional huge priced BSP winner. One trainer who has been less reliant on big-priced winners has been Charles Hills. He has saddled 149 winners from 1240 drifters turning a profit of £277.50 (ROI +22.4%). This record actually improves if you ignore his big-priced runners (BSP 40.0 or higher) – a £433.44 profit returning over 42p in the £. I did check the data for his 2023 drifters, and he has made a decent profit this year so far, too. Very interesting!

 

*

 

So, there we have it. The data collection for these three market movement articles has taken a while, but I hope Geegeez readers are able to take plenty from it. Perhaps the main message is, more horses will drift than shorten be it comparing Early Odds to SP or Opening Show to SP. So, if you can, bet late or bet Betfair SP. Also, when viewing the overall findings there is more value in drifters. This was highlighted especially in the second article where I looked at more significant (i.e. bigger) price movements.

From a trainer perspective, each trainer will have slightly different patterns of price movement, but the trainer tables in articles one and three will assist in that regard.

Good luck.

- DR

The TRUTH About Steamers and Drifters

/in /by

In this article I am going to look at market movement between the bookmaker’s opening show and the final Starting Price and unearth some truth about steamers and drifters, writes Dave Renham.

In what follows I will be focusing on flat and all-weather racing in the UK spanning five years from 2018 to 2022. Bookmaker data is taken from William Hill.

Typically, the opening show tends to be around ten minutes before the off, and these are the initial prices the bookmakers set. Backing a horse at ‘opening show’ and seeing it shorten in price means you have probably gained a decent edge and potentially some value. Conversely, if you take the opening show price and the horse drifts (lengthens) in price, then you may have lost some value.

However, it is important to note that more horses will lengthen in price than shorten. Here is a graphic to illustrate this by looking at the percentage of all runners that either shorten in price, stay the same, or lengthen in price:

 

 

As can be seen nearly 42% of all horses drift, compared with 34% who shorten. Roughly a quarter of all runners see their price remain steady. It is interesting to note that the percentages are very similar when comparing handicaps with non-handicaps (within 1%), hence the market behaves in a very similar way from opening show until the off regardless of race type.

My starting point for researching this article is very simple – look at opening show versus Starting Price and seeing what effect the differential has on strike rate and profit/loss. In terms of profit/loss I am going to calculate returns to Betfair Starting Price. For the sake of simplicity, I am going to split the runners into three groups:

 

- horses that shorten in price from opening show

- horses that stay the same price as opening show

- horses that lengthen in price from opening show.

 

Using numerical examples:

 

 

Let me start by looking at all races.

 

 

As we can see, horses that shorten in price have comfortably the best strike rate, therefore, unsurprisingly, the market does tend to get it right most of the time. In terms of returns to Betfair Starting Price horses that have remained the same price have proved the best value by a couple of pence in the £. It may be interesting to note that there is little in it between horses which shortened in price compared with those which lengthened.

So, we have a very even looking starting point in terms of returns / value, now it is time to dig deeper.

Horses whose opening show price was 4/1 or shorter

I thought it made sense to look at different price brackets so let’s start with the better fancied runners. It also seemed logical to use the opening show price for this rather than SP as the opening show price is known pre-race. Here are the splits:

 

 

There is the same sliding scale in terms of strike rate, but it is the horses that lengthened / drifted in price that have been better value this time. Horses that shortened in price proved the worst value.

 

Horses whose opening show price was 4/1 or shorter and then lengthened in price

Focusing on this subset of drifters, it is interesting when you compare the results on Grade 1 tracks compared with other tracks. The Grade 1 tracks on the flat are Ascot, Doncaster, Epsom, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown and York. Firstly, let’s review the win and each-way (win + placed) strike rates:

 

 

There is a difference of 1.6% in the win strike rates; 4.3% in terms of combining win and placed percentages (each way). These differences may look quite modest, but they are significant.

The graph below shows the return on investment (ROI%) to BSP for each group to highlight the significance:

 

 

Now we can see the significance of a 1.6% difference in win strike rates – the returns are over 7p in the £ worse at Grade 1 tracks for these shorter priced runners compared with the non-Grade 1 tracks. Indeed, away from the top tracks we see a situation where one would have virtually broken even backing every single drifter to BSP when it opened at 4/1 or shorter.

Whatever is occurring to create these differences between Grade 1 tracks and non-Grade 1 tracks for drifters, I am not sure. It may be connected with average field size; it may be connected with the quality of racing. It could be a combination of those, or neither.

Sometimes it is not worth speculating, especially as in this case it is nigh on impossible to isolate why. I’m happy on this one that it makes sense to just go with the data.

Before moving on I have checked the 2023 data (up to 27th Sept) and the same pattern for horses that drift/lengthen in price having opened 4/1 or shorter has continued:

 

 

The message according to all the information at my disposal is clear: horses which open at 4/1 or shorter and drift look to be POOR value when racing at Grade 1 tracks; away from these top tracks, such horses seem much better value – taking 2023 into account, going back to 2018 these runners would have lost you just 5p for every £100 bet.

 

Horses whose opening show price was 2/1 or shorter

Going back to data from ALL courses, if we focus on a shorter opening odds criterion of 2/1 or lower, and only look at drifters, we almost get to a break-even scenario. There were 7696 qualifiers of which 2801 won (SR 36.4%). Backing all 7696 runners at £1 stakes to BSP would have lost a meagre £49.13 (ROI -0.6%).

 

Horses whose opening show price was 2/1 or shorter that lengthened in price

If we once again look at the Grade 1 track data compared with other tracks for this subset of drifters, we see the following:

 

 

A similar, if stronger, pattern than with the 4/1 or shorter opening show cohort of drifters. Here, we are looking at a nearly 3% difference in win strike rate which equates to a difference of over 11p in the £ in terms of BSP returns.

As per the table above, drifters at non-Grade 1 tracks opening 2/1 or shorter have edged into profit. For this to happen across such a large sample – over 6500 runners – is interesting and impressive.

 

Horses whose opening show price was between 9/2 and 9/1

Time to look at the data for a bigger odds bracket. Here are the splits for each subset of the cohort whose opening show price was between 9/2 and 9/1:

 

 

It should have been no surprise to see those shortening in price winning more in percentage terms once again. In terms of returns, as with the shorter priced runners, horses that have shortened have been the worst value, albeit by just over 1p in the £.

 

Horses whose opening show price was between 9/2 and 9/1 that lengthened in price

I wanted to continue the comparison between drifters in this price bracket at Grade 1 and non-Grade 1 tracks to see if we get a similar differential as before. I assumed we would, as my expectations were that it would only start to reverse with longer-priced runners:

 

 

As before the non-Grade 1 track data is notably better, both in strike rate terms and BSP returns. However, the gap is starting to narrow, though the difference between the two is still clear. This dynamic has to switch around for bigger-priced runners and we will see whether this is the case shortly.

 

Horses whose opening show price was 10/1 or bigger

Onto double figure priced runners on the opening show now. Here are the results:

 

 

Horses that remained the same price have provided the best returns, while those shortening have marginally out-performed drifters. All groups though show poorer returns than the shorter priced runners we reviewed earlier. Both the shorteners and the drifters offered poor value for the punter.

 

Horses whose opening show price was 10/1 or bigger that lengthened in price

Finally for this section, I wanted to investigate whether this subset of drifters produced converse results whereby horses that raced at Grade 1 tracks performed better than those which did not.

 

 

Here, necessarily, we have the big switch around: horses racing at Grade 1 tracks have the better strike rate for the first time and their returns are much better than their non-Grade 1 track counterparts.

When comparing the results of horses running at a different level of racetrack, splitting up the drifters’ data into opening show price bands has been an eye opener for me. In the future, if my plan is to place my bet late at a Grade 1 track and my horse opens up 9/1 or shorter, I would think twice about backing it if it started to drift. Conversely if I was planning the same at a non-Grade 1 track then I would want to see it drift!

As it stands, the research shared so far has been very general – hence the huge sample sizes. I have not yet considered how much the price has changed, because clearly a horse can drift from 6/1 to 13/2, but another 6/1 shot could drift dramatically out to 10/1 and beyond. In a follow-up article I will be digging deeper into the size of the change in price.

Back to this article and, having looked at the splits in terms of strike rate and returns for different price bands, I thought it would be interesting to go back to where this all started and look at the percentage of all runners that either shorten in price, stay the same or lengthen/drift within each of these bands. Here are my findings:

 

 

This is very enlightening as we can see that the percentage of horses that drifted compared to horses that shortened is similar in the 4/1 or less group, and also in the 9/2 to 9/1 group (green/yellow bars). However, in the 10/1+ group, 42% of all runners drifted, compared to a much lower 28.9% of runners who shortened. These stats are implying that we should delay wagering longer-priced runners by either waiting to the last minute or simply using Betfair SP. For horses that open at prices of 9/1 or shorter, the timing of bet placement seems generally less crucial.

 

Trainers

Changing tack, a quick look at some raw trainer data now. I have chosen 25 high volume flat trainers, and I am simply comparing win strike rates and A/E indices for all of their runners within the three cohorts we’ve used throughout this piece – horses that shortened, horses that stayed the same price and horses that drifted. I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher (in green) – these are essentially positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are essentially negative:

 

 

There are more greens than reds and, as a rule, the strike rates increase as you read across the columns left to right. This is what we would expect based on the overall data presented earlier. However, George Boughey is interesting as his three strike rates sit very close together, between 17.25 and 17.72%. Horses of his that have drifted have proved much better value than those that have shortened.

Clive Cox has a poor record with horses that drift in price as does James Tate, perhaps suggesting these yards know when to bet! Meanwhile, David Menuisier has done extremely well with horses that have shortened in price. They would have provided you with returns of over 17p in the £ to BSP which is impressive: another yard to follow when they’re fancied maybe?

I wanted to delve a little more deeply into trainer statistics and analyse the percentage of runners for individual trainers that either shorten, stay the same price or lengthen.

Below is a list of trainers whose runners drift far more than they. I have ordered them by highest percentage of runners that lengthen in price:

 

 

It was surprising to see George Boughey in the list and even more surprising to see him at the top. I also had not expected to see Sir Mark Prescott or Gary Moore appear either. It may be that these horses are often put in at defensively short prices on the opening show, bookmakers fearful of shrewd trainers/connections landing a gamble. Elsewhere, some less well-known trainers are arguably more predictable entries in the table.

There are not many trainers where this scenario is reversed with the percentage of horses that shorten in price being higher than the percentage that drift. However, five well known handlers have this profile and are shown below:

 

 

There are some big guns in this list. Punters are aware of the skills of these trainers and hence their runners are usually going to be strong in the betting market. It may be that these yards are, generally speaking, less inclined to gamble their horses, though in the case of Aidan O’Brien that’s not typically the case.

*

It is time to wind up this first article into market movement. There are plenty of stats to chew over and hopefully for punters who bet near or around ‘the off’ it has given some useful data to potentially improve your profit/loss bottom line. You can read part two of this article here.

- DR