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Sat TV Trends: 31st Jan 2015

More LIVE C4 action this weekend as the cameras head to Sandown, Wetherby and Ffos Las – As normal we've we've got all the big race trends and stats for you.

 

Sandown (C4/RUK)

1.50 - Betfred "Goals Galore" Handicap Chase Cl2 2m CH4

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
8/8 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
7/8 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
7/8 – Aged 9 or younger
7/8 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/8 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/8 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
5/8 – Carried 10-10 or less in weight
4/8 – Aged 7 years-old
4/8 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
4/8 – French bred
4/8 – From outside the top 4 in the betting
4/8 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
3/8 – Went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
3/8 – Won their last race
3/8 – Raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
2/8 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/8 – Trained by Nicky Hendserson
2/8 – Ridden by Timmy Murphy
1/8 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 renewals is 6/1
Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Paul Nicholls is 30% with his chasers here
Nicky Henderson has a 27% record with his chasers here
Philip Hobbs is just 3 from 36 with his chasers here
David Pipe is only 1 from 1 with his chasers here
Jonjo O’Neill is just 2 from 22 with his chasers here
Barry Geraghty has a 28% record riding over fences here

2.25 - Betfred TV Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f110y CH4

11/11 – Won no more than 3 times over fences previously
11/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
10/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Placed in the top 2 last time out
9/11 – Aged 7 or younger
9/11 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
8/11 – Favourites
8/11 – Favourites placed
8/11 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/11 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/11 – Aged 7 years-old
5/11 – French bred
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/11 – Went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
3/11 – Raced over fences at Sandown previoulsy
2/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/11 – Ridden by AP McCoy
The average winning  SP in the last 10 renewals is 7/4

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Paul Nicholls is 30% with his chasers here
Philip Hobbs is just 3 from 36 with his chasers here
Nigel Twiston-Davies is 0 from 23 with his chasers here

3.00 - Betfred Mobile And Levy Board Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m6f CH4

9/9 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
9/9 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
8/9 – Went to race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
8/9 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
8/9 – Won only 2-3 times over hurdles before
8/9 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/9 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
8/9 – Officially rated 135 or lower
7/9 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
7/9 – Returned 13/2 or less
6/9 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
5/9 – Favourites placed
4/9 – Raced over hurdles at Sandown previously (3 won)
4/9 – Won last time out
4/9 – Favourites
4/9 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/9 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
3/9 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/10 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/10 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/10 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/10 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Ryanair Chase, 2007 Taranis)
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 6/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Charlie Longsdon has a 25% record with his hurdlers here
Lucy Wadham has a 20% record with her hurdlers here
Neil King has a 20% record with his hurdlers here
Emma Lavelle has a 20% record with her hurdlers here

3.35 - Betfred Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y CH4

11/11 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
10/11 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
9/11 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
9/11 – Rated 136 or lower
8/11 – Aged 9 or younger
7/11 – Won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
7/11 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/11 – Placed in their last race
6/11 – Ran at Sandown before (3 won)
6/11 – Favourites placed in the top 4
5/11 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (2) last time out
5/11 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/11 – French-bred
4/11 – Irish-bred
3/11 – Favourites
2/11 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
RELAX won this race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

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Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Nicky Henderson has a 27% record with his chasers here
Venetia Williams is just 3 from 39 with her chasers here
David Pipe is just 4 from 50 with his chasers here
Oliver Sherwood is just 1 from 24 with his chasers here
Richard Johnson has a 21% record riding over fences here

Ffos Las (C4/ATR)

2.05 - Betway Welsh Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) Cl2 2m4f CH4

Normally staged at Chepstow the race was terminated in 2002, but brought back to life by Ffos Las racecourse in 2010 – however, there was no race in 2010, Oscar Whisky won a poor renewal in 2011, while the 2012 race was abandoned.
Only 2 previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 37% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Sophie Leech has a 35% record with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 38% record at the track

2.40 - Betway West Wales National (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m4f CH4

Just 2 previous running
Venetia Williams won the race 12 months ago – TARRACO & GORGEHOUS LLIEGE
Venetia Williams has a 36% record with her chasers here
Rebecca Curtis has a 23% record with her chasers here
Alan King is 2 from 7 with her chasers here
Jamie Moore has a 21% record when riding over fences here


Wetherby (C4/RUK)

3.20 - totepool Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f CH4

9/10 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – From the top 3 in the betting
9/10 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
9/10 – Aged 8 or younger
9/10 – Never raced over fences at Wetherby previously
7/10 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
7/10 – Won between 1-2 times over fences previously
7/10 – Won their last race
7/10 – Aged 7 years-old
7/10 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Warwick (3) last time out
7/10 – Favourites placed
6/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/10 – Irish bred
4/10 –Went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (no winners, but all finished 6th or better)
2/10 – Trained by Ian Williams
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 3/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Brian Ellison has a 26% record with his chasers at the track
David Pipe has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Micky Hammond is just 2 from 39 with his chasers at the track
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Some Recent Quotes..................

"Had more of a break since his last run and comes here today fresh and well. Testing ground conditions but GORES ISLAND should run well"
Gary Moore 29/01/15 1st 7/1

"Seek The Fair Land: Has had a break, but also been working well during that time. Only 8 runners so top three claims and was a good old servant last year for us - never really running a bad race. 7f trip ideal and won off higher in the past. William Carson rides, he's been on his back before and gets on well with him."
Lee Carter 28/01/15 2nd 25/1

 

 


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Sat TV Trends: 16th Nov 2012

Cheltenham

It's Paddy Power Gold Cup Day

A huge day up at Cheltenham this Saturday with the Paddy Power Gold Cup the feature - the C4 cameras head there plus are also covering two races at Wetherby . Andy Newton's got all the key trends & stats. Read more

Sat TV Trends: 2nd Nov 2013

Paul-Nicholls-001

Nicholls Eyes Another JNWine Chase....

Andy Newton is on hand with all the key TV trends for this Saturday’s meetings at Ascot, Wetherby & Down Royal..... Read more

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2013

Stat of the Day : 28th April

Stat of the Day : 28th April

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2013

Yesterday was another "close, but not close enough" days, as we once again made the frame without adding any money to the pot. We do seem to be banging on the door quite a bit at present: hopefully we'll burst it open today.

We're heading back up to Yorkshire today for a 3m 1f, Class3 handicap chase and the ground is set to be Good for the nine runners contesting the...

3.35 Wetherby:

There's not a lot going on today, but I've one that's becoming a course specialist here at Wetherby and comes into today's race in excellent form.

Blazing Bull has won three times from ten starts to date, but more relevant is the fact that those three victories have come in each of his last three outings. The last two of those wins have been here at Wetherby (the second over today's trip) whilst his only other run here resulted in him finishing 3rd on Boxing Day in the mud.

This horse seems to have improved for each of his three wins and despite a 9lbs rise up the weights of late, this shouldn't be enough to stop this lightly raced 9 yr old, plus the availability of a 7lb claim from jockey John Dawson will help.

Blazing Bull is sure to attract some support, so I'm taking the 5/2 of offer from William Hill, but please do take the opportunity to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.35 Wetherby.

Sat TV Trends: 2nd Feb 2013

SandownSandown, Ffos Las and Wetherby provide the LIVE C4 action this Saturday – Andy Newton’s got all the races covered from a trends angle..... Read more

Sat TV Trends: 26th Jan 2013

Cheltenham

It's Cheltenham Trials Day!

It's Cheltenham Trials Day this Saturday at Prestbury Park and we've got the key trends and stats for ALL 8 races..... Read more

Sat TV Trends: 19th Jan 2013

Sprinter Sacre

Sprinter Sacre runs at Ascot on Saturday

Weather permitting we'll have LIVE C4 action at Ascot, where Sprinter Sacre is on show in the Victor Chandler Chase....... Read more

Trainer Stats: 1st Jan 2013

Jefferson

Malcolm Jefferson has had a fine Xmas...

As we enter a new year Andy Newton gives you six stables that are heading into 2013 in tip-top order. Read more

Well I Declare, 8th December

Well I Declare, 8th December

Well I Declare, 8th December

Racing action from Sandown, Aintree, Wetherby and Chepstow are all featured in Mal Boyle's Well I Declare for..

...SATURDAY (08/12):

Sandown:

General stats: Five favourites (of one description or another) won via twelve races during the two-day meeting last year, whilst two of the four odds on favourites obliged. 

National Hunt Novice Hurdle due to be contested at 12.20: Nicky Henderson has saddled four of the last six winners of this event with the trainer coming to the gig on this occasion on a four timer.  All four winners saddled by Nicky were five-year-old and two of his three entries earlier in the week hailed from that vintage.  Favourites came to the party on a six timer last year but the 4/6 market leader could only finish third.

Pertemps series qualifier scheduled for 1.25: Paul Nicholls has saddled the only two successful favourites (in the last four years) during the decade.  Paul held two entries for the contest earlier in the week, as did Jonjo O’Neill who is the only other trainer to have saddled two winners during the study period.

Listed Handicap Hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Eight of the last nine winners have scored at odds of 9/1 or less (two winning favourites), whilst four-year-olds have secured four of the last eight contests.

Twenty nine furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.40: The last six winners have carried a minimum weight of eleven stones, whilst the eight successful horses during the last decade ranged between 7/2 and 10/1, with not a single favourite amongst them.

 

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Aintree:

General stats: The Murphy yard is potentially represented by the course and distance winner Quito De La Roque in the scheduled 1.50 event with the stable looking to improve its ratio to 3/3 at Aintree.

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 12.00: Favourites have secured two of the five renewals of this event in which three market leaders have finished in the frame.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.35: Six-year-olds have won six renewals of this event during the last decade.  Last year’s successful 5/1 favourite was the first to score in seven years since back to back 5/1 joint market leaders obliged in 2003/2004.   Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-5.

‘Becher Chase’ due to be contested at 2.10: Just like last week’s ‘Hennessy’, this race is finally being won by fancied horses on a semi regular basis following years of renewals which favoured the bookmakers.  Only one market leader has obliged in the last seven years though that said, seven of the last nine contests have been secured by horses sent off at odds of 10/1 or less.  Unusually, Paul Nicholls was potentially represented by just one horse in this year’s event, a race which Paul has secured three times in the last eight years.  Join Together is the horse in question.

Class 2 two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.45: Four renewals have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded following the success of four consecutive market leaders (of one description or another) between 2004 and 2007.  Four-year-olds have been the most successful vintage (four winners during the last decade) though that said, just three of the twenty-two five-day acceptors hailed from the junior ranks.

‘Grand Sefton’ event scheduled for 3.20: Eight and nine-year-olds have (equally) shared the last four renewals, whilst five contests have passed without a successful favourite being registered.  That said, five of the nine favourites have secured win and place positions which is a decent enough record in this type of event.

 

Wetherby:

General stats: Tim Easterby does not lead the strike rate figures, though his regular winners at Wetherby are backed up by an LSP reading of twenty-six points.

 

Chepstow:

General stats: John O’Shea’s LSP figure of eighty-one points demands attention.

Sat TV Trends: 17th Nov 2012

Grands Crus in Action This Weekend

It's Paddy Power Gold Cup day at Cheltenham, plus there is LIVE C4 action at Lingfield & Wetherby. Read more

Sat TV Trends: 3rd Nov 2012

Andy Newton is on hand with all the key TV trends for this Saturday’s meetings at Ascot, Newmarket, Wetherby & Down Royal..... Read more

Trainer Stats: 31st Oct 2012

Colin Tizzard Has His String In Great Heart....

Andy Newton's got another bunch of in-form trainers to have on your side this week..... Read more

Well I Declare: 17th October

Well I Declare: 17th October

Well I Declare: 17th October

Kempton, Lingfield, Nottingham and Wetherby are our hosts today and here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's thoughts for the day.

WEDNESDAY 17/10:

Kempton:

General stats: Violet Jordan (2/4 at the track) saddles her course and distance winner Perfect Honour on Wednesday.
Lingfield:

General stats: This is the first meeting on the newly laid surface whereby readers are advised to give the course time to prove itself, one way or the other!
Nottingham:

General stats: Lucy Wadham held three entries at the time of writing at a track where the trainer has saddled two winners via just five runners. 
Wetherby:

General stats: Charlie Longsdon’s 43% strike rate (6/14) stands out from the crowd at Wetherby and with eleven potential runners on Wednesday, Charlie is obviously intent on saddling more winners at the venue.

Three-year-old maiden hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Two of the last fifteen favourites have obliged, whilst nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.25: Nine of the last 12 winners of this handicap hurdle event have carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst five clear market leaders have won via the last fourteen renewals, alongside one joint and two co favourites.  Fifteen of the nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.55: Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 10-12 or less.  Nine of the seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event due to be contested at 4.30: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last 10 renewals whilst eight of the last ten favourites in this event have won, with 3/1 and 9/2 shots having snared gold in the other contests.  Twelve of the seventeen market leaders have finished in the frame during an extended period, statistics which include ten winners.

Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 5.00: Evan Williams come into the race on a hat trick having held just the one entry (One In A Million) at the four-day stage.  Two of the four favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the finale, statistics which include one winner.

Trainer Stats: 16th Oct 2012

Dr Newland's Horses Are In Good Heart

Andy Newton has seven more trainers to keep on your side this week - see who they are here....... Read more

Well I Declare, 31st May 2012

Well, I Declare! 31/05/12

Well, I Declare! 31/05/12

This Thursday edition of Well, I Declare gives you the lowdown on today's action from Ayr, Brighton, Newcastle, Sandown, Ffos Las and Wetherby, as well as another chance to study the draw stats for the Epsom Classic meeting.

Ayr:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott (5/12) and Jeremy Noseda (2/2) are southern trainers to watch out for at Ayr, both trainers having options at the track on Thursday at the time of writing.

 

Brighton:

General stats: Nine of Jeremy Noseda’s eleven recent winners at Brighton have hailed from his 3YO ranks via just eighteen runners.  Roger Charlton (7/13) and William Haggas (8/22) are other trainers to keep on the right side along with Sir Mark Prescott. Mahmood Al Zarooni’s juveniles are well worth siding with at Brighton.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Ed Dunlop (5/10) and Rae Guest (5/13) are trainers to respect at Gosforth Park, whilst this is yet another track where William Haggas representatives more than ‘hold their own‘.

 

Sandown:

General stats: Ryan Moore has ridden more horses than any of the other potentially represented riders at Sandown on Thursday and yet Ryan boasts the best (21%) strike rate among the relevant pilots.  Such statistics are a rarity within the sport of kings. 

Class 5 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 6.15: All twelve win and place positions have been claimed by horses carrying 8-11 or more, whilst the four favourites thus far have snared three gold and one bronze medal.

National Stakes scheduled for 6.45: Richard Hannon has saddled three of the last five winners whilst four of the last fourteen favourites have won with six market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

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Henry II event scheduled for 7.20: Eight of the last sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions though just one market leader has prevailed and that gold medallist scored fourteen years ago!

Brigadier Gerard contest due to be sent off at 7.55: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ of late, securing twelve of the last fifteen renewals between them.  Four-year-olds lead the way with nine victories during the extended study period.  Four of the last thirteen favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst seven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

Listed ‘Heron Stakes’ scheduled for 8.25: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this event during the last fifteen years. Twelve of the last seventeen market leaders have finished in the money. Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last nine winners and the trainer held just one option at the penultimate stage which was Tales Of Grimm, with Ryan Moore already ’jocked aboard’.

Class 3 one mile handicap scheduled for 8.55: Four-year-olds have claimed eleven of the last seventeen gold medals (including six of the last nine) in the finale. Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst ten of the fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Six of the last eight favourites have claimed three gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of those beaten market leaders.

 

Ffos Las:

General stats: Nicky Henderson (38% strike rate) heads the trainer stats as you might presume, but Andrew Tinkler’s haul of six winners form just twenty assignments also makes for interesting reading, especially as Andrew had just one booked ride at the time of writing, namely I’m Fraam Goven. 

 

Wetherby:

General stats: Richard Johnson does not visit these parts too often but his 11/25 stats should make you respect the chance of any horse Richard rides at Wetherby. 

 

THE EPSOM DRAW FACTOR:

The Oaks (Friday):

Only eleven of the ninety horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners) during the last fourteen years.  Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent seasons.  Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs--most recent renewal offered first):

7-12-2 (13 ran-good)
15-4-2 (14 ran-good)
5-2-9 (10 ran-good)
13-10-11 (16 ran-good)
11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)
5-3-10 (10 ran-good)
2-4-9 (12 ran-good)
3-6 (7 ran-good)
7-11-9 (15 ran-good)
13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)
10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)
5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)
5-4-8 (8 ran-good)

 

The Derby (Saturday):

Aidan O’Brien has saddled two winners and eight placed horses during the last thirteen years and with five of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1, few of his runners in the Epsom Derby should ever be ignored.  Camelot looks like the being first odds on favourite to hopefully win the Epsom Derby since Shergar obliged back in 1989. Two beaten odds on chances have been recorded since Walter Swinburn struck gold, as both Entrepreneur (1997) and Tenby (1993) failed to deliver the goods. The last thirteen winners of The Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include four favourites of one sort or another.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-10-2 (12 ran-good)
3-14-10 (16 ran-good)
14-8-2 (17 ran-good)
10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-12-4 (13 ran-good)
6-11-3 (14 ran-good)
4-16-8 (20 ran-good)
9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)
10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
15-7-10 (15 ran-good)
1-5-17 (16 ran-good)
14-1-11 (15 ran-good)