Tix Picks, Friday 01/11/24

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Newcastle, Newmarket, Uttoxeter & Wetherby

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...with the biggest pot offered at Wetherby, where the going will be good for a fixture that kicks off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.45, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ novice hurdle over 2m4f...

Battle Born Lad's withdrawal this morning probably hands the race to French import Kart D'Estruval on his UK debut. he comes here after finishing third on debut, beaten by less than 3 lengths over 2m2f at Fontainebleau and then winning over the same track and trip. His handlers, the Skeltons, have also won this race in 2020 and 2023 and this looks like a third win in five years for them.

I Play County progressed well in three bumpers, finishing 4th of 18, then 3rd of 7 before a win at Taunton last time out and he'll probably be the main challenger here if taking to hurdles.

After this pair, it's a fairly mediocre field, although The Geordie Ginge has five top-three finishes from his last six races. He might be worth a very small E/W punt, but he's not going on my ticket builder!

It's just (2) Kart D'Estruval & (4) I Play County for me.

Leg 2 @ 1.15, a 4-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ novice chase over 3m½f...

Cadell was 2/2 in PTP races before finishing as a runner-up on his sole bumper run. He won on hurdling debut 13 months ago and was a runner-up in two of four subsequent races prior to a six length defeat on his chasing bow five weeks ago. That came after a 200-day absence, so he should strip fitter here.

Edison Kent won over hurdles in June, but is 09586 since and now reverts back to fences for only the second time since being pulled up at Huntingdon on Boxing Day last year. This will be his seventh chase contest and with a previous form line of 9543P5, I'm not expecting much as he steps up in class.

Farnoge, however, drops two classes for his chase debut. A winner on his bumper debut in March '23 and then a winner of his first two efforts over hurdles in October/November of that year, he was subsequently pulled up in a Grade 1 at Newbury and then at Class 2 at Musselburgh, before ending the season third of six, beaten by just seven lengths in a Listed race at Perth. That kind of run is needed here, but he might be rusty after 191 days off the track.

West Balboa does have one chase run under her belt, even if it was a disappointing effort as she finished 4th of 5 some 12 lengths down at Worcester just over a fortnight ago after being sent of at the 2/5 fav. In her defence, it was her chase debut and came after a six month absence from the track. She was that short in the market because her previous outing saw her finish 3rd of 21 in a Class 1 handicap hurdle at the Liverpool Festival in April for a seventh place (3 wins) from ten starts over the smaller obstacles. I suspect she'll come on for both the run and the experience and be the one to beat here ahead of Farnoge who I marginally prefer to Cadell.

Leg 3 @ 1.50, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m4f...

All bar Isle of Sark and Luckie Seven come here off the back of over five months away from the track and whilst the former is the only one in the field without a win in their last seven races, he has been a runner-up in two of his last four over hurdles including going down by just a head at Sedgefield a month ago on his last run, but fellow handicap debutant Luckie Seven is the form horse here. Yet to finish out of the first two home, he was 212 in bumpers and has won both starts over hurdles including one over today's trip.

Singapore Trip also won over a similar distance last time out after previously finishing third three times in four races taking advantage of not running on mud to score at Perth back in May, whilst Welsh Charger's 9th of 11 last time out doesn't negate his previous good form. He had stepped up two classes for that run, but now drops back in class and prior to that last run, his hurdling form read 2121411.

And my shortlist is completed by Kaituna River, whose form (631) has shown progression culminating in a three length success over this trip at Plumpton seven months ago. This seems tougher up in class and with he and Welsh Charger coming off the longest absences, I'm inclined to go with (4) Isle of Sark, (5) Singapore Trip & (6) Luckie Seven today in a race where any of the five I mentioned could win!

Leg 4 @ 2.25, a 7-runner, 3yo listed juvenile hurdle over 2m...

On his hurdling debut, Liam Swagger beat Torrent by just over four lengths at Market Rasen last time out with Model Approach a half length further back in third, but Torrent is now some 11lbs better off with the winner and 8lbs better off with Model Approach, who has actually raced twice since that contest, winning both times at Sedgefield and then at Kempton 12 days ago.

For the record, Torrent's form over hurdles stands at 1212 and you'd suspect that under normal conditions that it would be easy to just throw all three onto my Tix ticket builder. However, there are other to consider, like French import Static who is 2/2 over fences in France and made the frame on four (2 wins) of five over hurdles. Denzil's sole outing to date was a three-runner hurdle at Stratford where he made all to win by 55 lengths. Play Pretend won on debut at Market Rasen back in June and was third of six over today's course and distance last time out and Irish runner Inspire Hope has finished 2142 in her four efforts over hurdles, beaten by just half a length last time out.

This course/distance/going has rewarded front-runners and I suspect we might see a bit of a burn-up early doors today...

...with the possibility of Play Pretend being left adrift. He's also up three classes here after a six length defeat. Denzil is also up three classes after winning a poor race by 55 lengths, where the runner-up has since gone down by 70 lengths and I suspect this race is too good for Torrent.

I do like the look of the French runner Static if he can bring that form with him, Liam Swagger seems an obvious pick on results so far and with Model Approach closely matched to him and in grat form, that's my trio here.

Leg 5 @ 3.00, a 5-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m3½f...

A really interesting race with five fairly evenly matched candidates. Heltenham is the one I'd cross off first though. He looks second string of the Skelton runners based on jockey bookings and hold-up horses have struggled to score over this course and distance...

...with stablemate Midnight River the standout on Instant Expert...

He fell last time out, though in the Coral Gold Cup, but showed his undoubted talent when landing a Class 1 race at the Liverpool Festival. Galop de Chasse won last time out after a seven-month absence, so I'm not overly concerned about his recent lay-off. Prairie Wolf was 314113 over fences last season and has had a pipe-opener here over hurdles recently tog et the legs going again, whilst Genois' chasing form is probably the weakest on offer here. He has yet to win any of 15 attempts and although he makes the frame fairly regularly, I prefer the other three to him.

I wouldn't normally take three from five, but this one looks too tricky call, so I will take three! (1) Midnight River, (3) Prairie Wolf & (4) Galop de Chasse.

Leg 6 @ 3.35, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m5½f...

I suspect the top half of the card is where the money will go today. Queen's Venture still looks ahead of the assessor as she aims to make it 3 /3 in handicap company after two wins in the last three weeks and the trip won't be an issue. Bitsnbuckles won on handicap debut back in January and shaped well on his return after a break to finish fourth at Market Rasen recently.

Sauce of Life is a strange one, he won both bumpers and was second and third in his first two hurdles races, but that was all in 2021 before an 853 day absence to finish 8th of 14 at Market Rasen in March of this year and then another six month break before reappearing to finish fourth of mine at Perth just over five weeks ago. If he comes on for that run, he could be dangerous based on old form, whilst Knacker Trapper won three starts ago and was only beaten by a neck when runner-up at Sedgefield three weeks ago on his own seasonal reappearance.

Instant Expert doesn't give us much but does point towards the top of the card again...

...and these stats also make a fairly compelling case for Queen's Venture...

...so he's in and I'll take a chance on the lightly raced Sauce of Life.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Kart D'Estruval & (4) I Play County

Leg 2: (3) Farnoge & (4) West Balboa

Leg 3: (4) Isle of Sark, (5) Singapore Trip & (6) Luckie Seven

Leg 4: (1) Liam Swagger, (2) Static & (4) Model Approach

Leg 5: (1) Midnight River, (3) Prairie Wolf & (4) Galop de Chasse

Leg 6: (1) Queen's Venture & (3) Sauce of Life

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

It could well be boom or bust here, so good luck!
Chris

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• Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24