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Sat TV Trends: 10th Nov 2018

This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Wincanton with the Badger Ales Chase their feature, plus they are also at Doncaster for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also at Aintree to take in one of their contests as always we've got all the trends and stats for the LIVE races.

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.30 – Marathonbet Sportsbook British EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

13/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/14 – Had won at least twice before
11/14 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
11/14 – Had 3 or more runs that season
9/14 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/14 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
8/14 – Unplaced last time out
7/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
7/14 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
2/14 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/14 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/14 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

 

2.05 – Marathonbet Official Global Partner Of Manchester City Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

13/15 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
13/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Had won over 6f before
13/15 – Won from stall 12 or lower
12/15 – Rated 99 or higher
12/15 – Aged 4 or older
10/15 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
8/15 – Had won at Doncaster before
8/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/15 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/15 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Winning mare/filly
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

3.15 - Marathonbet November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV4

12/15 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
12/15 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
12/15 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
12/15 – Favourites that were unplaced
11/15 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
11/15 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
10/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/15 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
10/15 – Placed last time out
10/15 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
2/15 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 5 times in all)
1/15 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995

 

 

Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – Hunts Food Service Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

11/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Aged 7 or younger
8/11 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
8/11 – Rated between 119-129
8/11 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
7/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
7/11 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
5/11 – Had run at the track before
5/11 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Aged 6 years-old
2/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

 

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2.25 – Bet At racinguk.com ‘Rising Stars’ Novices Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

11/11 – Had won no more than twice over fences
10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Favourites placed
9/11 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
8/11 – Irish (4) or French (4) bred
8/11 – Aged 6 or younger
7/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2

 

 

3.00 - Unibet Elite Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

14/14 – Aged 7 or younger
13/14 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
12/14 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/14 – Unplaced last time out
9/14 – Rated 150 or lower
9/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/14 – Having first run of the season
5/14 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/14 – Carried 10-6 or less
5/14 – Won with 11-10 in weight
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/14 – Trained by John Quinn
2/14 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

 

3.35 - Badger Ales Trophy (A Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

15/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
13/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
13/15 – Won at least two chase races previously
13/15 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
12/15 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
12/15 –  Raced at the course previously (5 won over fences)
12/15 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
12/15  – Placed in the top four in their last race
10/15 – Favourites placed
10/15 – Raced already that season
9/15 – Irish-bred horse
8/15 – Raced at either Sandown (2), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
8/15 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
7/15 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
7/15 – Priced at double-figures
7/15 – Won their latest race
5/15 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
5/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/15 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 4 of the last 8 years)
Present Man (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/2

 

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

 

2.40 – Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase Cl2 2m4f ITV

13/13 – Aged 9 or younger
13/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Had won 2 or less times over fences before
10/13 – Last raced over 6 months ago
10/13 – Aged 8 or younger
10/13 – Unplaced favourites
9/13 – Had won over 2m4f (or further) over fences before
9/13 – Carried 10-13 or more
7/13 – Rated between 119 and 130
9/13 – Had raced at Aintree before
5/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
1/13 – Winning favourites
On Tour (4/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

 

 

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Placepot Pointers – Thursday 10th May

CHESTER – MAY 10 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years on day two:

2017: £42.70 (7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 placed)

2016: £30.40 (8 favourites – 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £10.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £21.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £16.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2012: £536.60 (7 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £9.40 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot divided: £102.48 - 47 favourites - 18 won - 16 placed - 13 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 81.2% units went through – 10/11* & 4/1

Race 2: 68.6% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* & 4/1

Race 3: 48.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2** - 9/1 – 8/1 (7/2**)

Race 4: 49.3% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 8/1 – 7/1

Race 5: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 & 6/1 (4/6)

Race 6: 52.0% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 11/1 – 5/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (El Astronaute), 1 (Doctor Sardonicus) & 6 (Hyperfocus)

Leg 2 (2.25): 7 (Rostropovich), 5 (My Lord And Master) & 1 (Kenya)

Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Tadleel), 8 (Dragon’s Tail) & 1 (Another Batt)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Idaho) & 6 (Muntahaa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Arcadian Rocks) & 6 (Ynys Mon)

Leg 6 (4.35): 4 (Christopher Robin), 3 (Ghostwatch) & 1 (Austrian School)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • We started the Chester meeting off with a successful permutation yesterday – let’s hope for more of the same today!

 

1.50:  EL ASTRONAUTE attempts to follow up last year’s success in the race and with trainer John Quinn having scored with four of his last eight runners, Jason Hart’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  DOCTOR SARDONICUS should not be too far away at the jamstick, particularly if Tom Dascombe’s raider is given anything like an easy lead up front, whilst HYPERFOCUS looks a tad too big at 40/1 in a place this morning, despite his negative stall position.

Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have reached the frame via twelve renewals, statistics which include two (11/2 & 9/4) winners.

Chester record of seven course winners in the opening race:

2/5—El Astronaute (good & good to soft)

2/4—Sir Maximilian (2 x good)

1/6—Reflektor (good to soft)

2/4—Boundsy (2 x good)

2/5—Confessional (good to soft & soft)

3/13—Powerallied (2 x good & soft)

1/4—Bossipop (good to soft)

Draw factor (Five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

1-2-6 (9 ran-good)

3-1-6 (14 ran-good)

4-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)

4-1-7 (12 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)

7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-5 (13 ran--good)

4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-2-8 (14 ran--good)

6-7-4 (13 ran-good)

2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

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1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (12 ran-good)

6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25 (Dee Stakes): Aidan O’Brien has won this Group 3 event six times via the last eleven renewals in which the team has been represented and with strong candidates such as ROSTROPOVICH and KENYA this time around, Aidan looks sure to go close to extending his recent tally.  That said, MY LORD AND MASTER cannot be left out of the mix, especially from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have obliged during the study period, whilst 12 recent market leaders have reached the frame.  13 of the last 16 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

3.00: Ten of the last sixteen winners carried weights of nine stones or less, with TADLEEL and DRAGON’S TAIL (winner on the corresponding card last year) representing yours truly from a Placepot perspective on Thursday.  TADLEEL hails from the Ed Dunlop stable which has won with three of its five three-year-old handicappers at Chester during the last five years.  Although Ed’s last seven runners have been beaten, four of them reached the frame (exact science) at 16/1, 14/1, 13/2 and 5/1, whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is an each way player today, despite an unfortunate draw.  Jim is one of the two jockeys which have ridden the Dark Angel colt to victory thus far.  If the weight trend is to go base over apex on this occasion, ANOTHER BATT could prove to be the joker in the pack and it’s worth noting that money was coming in for Silvestre’s mount as dawn broke over Bristol this morning.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in recent years, statistics which include seven winners.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs):

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

7-1-8 (9 ran-good)

4-3 (5 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (8 ran-soft)

1-7-4 (8 ran-good)

1-3 (7 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-12-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

3-4-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

6-9-11 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-10-2 (9 ran-good)

6-4 (6 Ran-good to soft)

2-4-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-9-4 (15 ran-good to soft)

12-6-5 (15 ran-good)

15-9-5-13 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-6-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-13-14-12 (18 ran-good)

5-2-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-7-6 (13 ran-good)

Chester record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Dragon’s Tail (good)

 

3.35 ‘Ormonde Stakes’: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals (not represented on one occasion), though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence.  No trainer has won this race more often than Sir Michael Stoute who has saddled the winner six times, the first of which was with Saddlers' Hall back in 1992. That said, Michael is also on the missing list which leaves us eyeing up the prospect of another Aidan O’Brien winner in IDAHO who looks overpriced at the 11/8 quote in the trade press overnight. Indeed, favourite backers might be doing well to obtain 5/6 nearer flag fall, with MUNTAHAA seemingly the only horse standing in his way this afternoon.  The form of Idaho at the top level last year at his best would surely see the five-year-old home here with something to spare.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have rewarded investors during the last twenty years.  17 of the last 19 winners of this event have been returned at 7/2 or less.  ‘Only’ seven of the twelve market leaders in as many years have claimed Placepot positions though to be entirely fair, many of the favourites lost out when contesting 'win only' events.

Chester record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:

1/3—Duretto (heavy)

1/1—Muntahaa (good)

 

4.05: Mick Channon has saddled eight of his 21 juvenile runners this season to winning effect and with ARCADIAN ROCKS having landed a trap one position, Mick’s Society Rock colt could improve the ratio still further.  YNYS MON is the obvious threat from what we have witnessed to date, especially as any jungle drums beating for newcomers have not reached my ears at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 17 of the 22 favourites during the last 19 years have finished in the frame (11 winners).

Draw factor (five furlongs):

2-1 (7 ran-good)

9-3-12 (10 ran-good)

6-8-2 (9 ran-soft)

2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-7-1 (9 ran-soft)

6-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-2-6 (11 ran--good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-9-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

5-4-14-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

3-5 (7 ran-soft)

5-14-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

11-12-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-11-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-7-6 (8 ran-good)

3-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

4.35: Eleven different trainers have saddled the winner of this race in recent years, though with the likes of CHRISTOPHER ROBIN, GHOSTWATCH and AUSTRIAN SCHOOL looking to have the race between them, the negative trainer factor is not really an issue.

Favourite factor: Two favourites (3/1 & 5/2) have won during the last eleven years, whilst nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 15/2 during the study period.

Draw factor: (Twelve furlongs): With just eight runners going to post, this event should not be affected by the draw, especially as the horses mentioned in despatches should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

 

Record of the five course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race scheduled for 5.05:

1/2—Al Destoor (soft)

1/5—Dark Devil (heavy)

1/1—Never Surrender (good)

1/8—Fast Dancer (good to firm)

2/6—Berrahri (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 22nd April

WINCANTON – APRIL 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £55.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 80.8% units went through – 2/11* (Win only)

Race 2: 59.8% of the remaining units when through – Evens* (Win only)

Race 3: 18.8% of the remaining units went through – 13/8 (Win only - 5/4)

Race 4: 63.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 9/4*

Race 5: 84.2% of the remaining units went through – 1/14* (Win only)

Race 6: 27.0% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4 (Win only - 6/4)

Out of interest, the Placepot ‘prices’ in the win only races were as follows:

SP of 2/11* – Placepot ‘price’: 1/4

SP of Evens* – P’Pot: 4/6

SP of 13/8 – P’pot: 9/2

SP of 1/14* – P’pot: 1/5

SP of 9/4 – P’pot: 11/4

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Blu Cavalier), 3 (El Presente) & 4 (Malachite)

Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Little Miss Poet), 9 (The Sweeney) & 8 (Waterloo Warror)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (The Last But One) & 6 (Buster Thomas)

Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Volpone Jelois) & 4 (Canoodle)

Leg 5 (4.25): 6 (Diamond Guy), 4 (Big Difference) & 9 (Serosevsky)

Leg 6 (4.55): 5 (Guerilla Tactics) & 3 (Bears Rails)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

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2.15: Five-year-olds have ruled the roost having won five of the eleven contests, stats which are all the more impressive given that vintage representative were visible only by their absence twelve months ago.  EL PRESENTE and MALACHITE are two half decent runners on behalf of the vintage though that said, Paul Nicholls has saddled five winners via his last seven runners in the race whereby hat trick seeker BLU CAVALIER has to be the call.

Favourite factor: Nine of the eleven favourites have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Blu Cavalier (heavy)

 

2.50: Eleven of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more which basically eliminates the bottom five horses if you take the weight stats seriously.  LITTLE MISS POET is a Placepot call but with the Philip Hobbs runners still failing to sparkle regularly, Richard Johnson’s mount is joined in the mix by speculative types such as THE SWEENEY and WATERLOO WARRIOR.

Favourite factor: Ten of the nineteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:

1/1—Paddy’s Runner (soft)

 

3.20: The potential thunderstorms I spoke of yesterday didn’t arrive until mid-evening here in the west-country and it remains to be seen (at the time of writing) whether Wincanton (and Stratford come to that) were hit as hard as Bristol in terms of rainfall.  Either way, it’s difficult to oppose the 3/4 fencing record of THE LAST BUT ONE and the Paul Nicholls representative is expected to score again, chiefly at the expense of BUSTER THOMAS.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 favourite finished second when claiming a Placepot position before last year’s 5/4 market leader could only finish third in a four runner ‘win only’ event.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/4—The Last But One (heavy)

1/1—Wilberdragon (good)

 

3.50: Paul Nicholls usually finds a half decent inmate to contest these amateur rider events and this year’s stable representative is VOLPONE JELOIS.  Paul’s five-year-old raider will not represent good value but hopefully having reached the second half of our favourite wager, we don’t want to become too preoccupied with prices with a dividend to be won, any which way and how. CANOODLE is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite found one too good for him in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winner in fourth race:

1/6—Zulu Oscar (good to soft)

 

4.25: Paul Nicholls has won both races to date whereby DIAMOND GUY is the first name on the team sheet, especially as Harry Cobden’s mount is the only horse in the fifteen strong field to have attracted any real cash in the positive exchange queue at the time of writing.  Other to consider include BIG DIFFERENCE and SEROSEVSKY.

Favourite factor: Two extremely hot favourites have won this race to date at odds of 1/8 & 1/14.  Thank goodness we have a more competitive event to look forward to this afternoon.

Record of course winner in the fifth event:

1/2—Diamond Guy (good to firm)

 

4.55:  GUERILLA TACTICS might well have maintained an unbeaten record here at Wincanton the last day but for falling in a heap on landing.  His chance to reap compensation for connections is there for all to see with BEARS RAILS the likeliest silver medallist in the field.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 market leader could only finish second in yet another ‘win only’ event which dominated the card twelve months ago.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—Water Wagtail (good to soft)

1/2—Guerilla Tactics (good)

1/9—Shanann Star (soft)

 

Record of the course winner in the 8th (non Placepot) race at 6.00:

1/1—Dashel Drasher (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 9th April

LUDLOW – APRIL 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £94.90 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 51.3% units went through – 15/8* & 9/2

Race 2: 22.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/1 & 12/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 84.0% of the remaining units went through – 1/2* & 7/2

Race 4: 46.4% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 11/4*

Race 5: 59.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* - 25/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 28.6% of the units secured the dividend – 5/4* - 33/1 – 9/1

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 12 (Weebill) & 9 (Shalakar)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Western Climate), 6 (Goohar) & 7 (According To Harry)

Leg 3 (3.25): 3 (Peruvian Bleu), 4 (Raise A Spark) & 2 (I’m A Game Changer)

Leg 4 (3.55): 6 (Ifandbutwhynot), 2 (Cut The Corner) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)

Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Molly Carew), 9 (Diva Du Maquis) & 5 (Goodgirlteresa)

Leg 6 (5.05): 2 (Full Throttle) & 1 (Forever My Friend)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Although there is plenty of positive money in the exchange queue to back BATTLE OF IDEAS at around the 8/1 mark, the general price on offer is 6/1 whereby Colin Tizzard’s raider is an each way player at best from my viewpoint.  More obvious winners are WEEBILL and SHALAKAR, though Venetia Williams (trains the latter named entry) will have connections doing rain dances this morning I’ll wager!

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Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite duly obliged, as did four market leaders in the Placepot events on the card by an aggregate of 89 lengths!

 

2.50: The ground will hopefully have dried out enough for the three course winners in the field to offer Placepot investors plenty of hope in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  WESTERN CLIMATE, GOOHAR and ACCORDING TO HARRY are listed in order to preference to get us through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  Fourth Act is the class act in the field if any thoroughbred here can be used in those terms but horses who have run well with blinkers on for the first time do not have a good record in showing similar enthusiasm next time up according to my recollections from following the sport for well over fifty years.  In terms of runs/wins, Colin Tizzard’s raider should be a 13/2 chance via the percentages, not 5/2 as is currently the general offer.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has finished in the frame thus far by winning the relevant event at odds of 13/8.

Record of the three course winners in the second race:

1/2—Western Climate (good)

1/4—Goohar (good to soft)

1/3—According To Harry (good)

 

3.25: Six-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests and with vintage representative PERUVIAN BLEU boasting a 3/3 ratio at the track, you will not be surprised to learn that the Nick Williams raider is the first name on my team sheet.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than RAISE A SPARK I fancy, whilst I’M A GAME CHANGER completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include three winners.  That said, only one of the other six market leaders additionally snared a Placepot position during the period.

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—I’m A Game Changer – good to soft)

3/3—Peruvian Bleu (3 x good)

 

3.55: Last year’s winner IFANDBUTWHYNOT carries six pounds less this time around despite racing off a two pound higher mark, stats which demand that I include Danny Cook’s mount into the equation.  CUT THE CORNER represents Alistair Ralph who has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect, whilst ROCK ON ROCKY also boasts win and place claims.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

2/5—Colin’s Brother (2 x good to soft)

1/2—Ifandbutwynot (good to soft) – won this race last year

 

4.30: Neil Mulholland is back among the winners and the popular trainer looks to have quite a strong hand here via his two entries, namely MOLLY CAREW and GOODGIRLTERESA.  If Neil and his team are to be denied, DIVA DU MAQUIS appears to be the potential spoiler in the line up.

Favourite factor: This is a new race (for mares) on the Ludlow card.

 

5.05: I have only left myself two options here on a competitive card if we hold back from breaking into the ‘family reserves’ in order to appease our Placepot appetite.  Last year’s winner FULL THROTTLE and FOREVER MY FRIEND have edged out Diplomate Sivola and Queen Olivia (represents value for money from an each way perspective) accordingly.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot positions via two renewals to date, though we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Forever My Friend (good to firm)

1/1—Full Throttle (good to soft) – won this race last year

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 28th March

WINCANTON – MARCH 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13,527.30 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 69.8% units went through – 10/1, 4/1 & 11/4*

Race 2: 35.6% of the remaining units when through – 5/2** & 33/1 (5/2**)

Race 3: 78.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 8/15*

Race 4: 1.5% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 (Win only – 4/5* unplaced)

Race 5: 28.0% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 6/1 (10/3*)

Race 6: 4.5% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 & 33/1 (4/6*)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 3 (Darcy Ward)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Innisfree Lad), 5 (Lex Talionis) & 8 (Daytime Ahead)

Leg 3 (3.05): 6 (Hope’s Wishes), 3 (Rouergate) & 5 (She’s Gina)

Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (City Supreme) & 4 (Somchine)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Sonoftheking), 1 (Achille) & 2 (Blackmill)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Unioniste) & 2 (Carraig Mor)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Apologies for the late arrival of the scheduled 7.00 service on Platform 1 this morning - several family members misbehaving on the line just outside Bristol...

 

2.00: This is how I started last year’s corresponding analysis’; “The following statement could hardly be classed as ‘rocket science’ but fellow ‘Potters’ will hopefully appreciate what is meant when stating that the Wincanton dividend could just as easily pay five pounds today as £5k.  The ‘make up’ of the races suggest that a small dividend is the call though such is the fragility of the form of the horses on offer at the track today that literally anything could happen”.  If you look above, you will determine that there was a huge dividend declared but the amazing point to consider for all people considering playing the Placepot on a regular basis, is that at the halfway stage, the Placepot was only paying £3.73 before developing into £13,537.30 three races later!  The other point to consider today is the ground as rain is still raining here in Bristol which is not too far north of Wincanton.  The wet stuff is on the radar to hit Wincanton from the time of writing until lunchtime.  CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK will have few (if any) problems with the conditions whereby his is the first name on the team sheet ahead of DARCY WARD who won on his last start on soft going.  It’s worth noting that Nick Schofield rode Run To Milan the last day he won but the popular pilot partners Darcy Ward on this occasion.

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Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 favourite was beaten in a win only contest behind the 9/1 winner of what was the fourth race on the card twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

2/2—Captain Cattistock (soft & heavy)

 

2.30: INNISFREE LAD is the call on this ground, especially as the drop back in trip will mean that he will be staying on strongly when others of cried enough, the pick of which are nominated as LEX TALIONIS and another ‘mud merchant’ in DAYTIME AHEAD.

Favourite factor:  Favourites have won three of the last seven renewals though that said, the other four gold medallists during the period were returned at priced ranging between 11/2 and 10/1.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/2—Stonemadforspeed (good)

2/4—Daytime Ahead (soft & heavy)

 

3.05: Heavy ground course winner HOPE’S WISHES has to be the each way call with the weather misbehaving (as usual) at the time of writing.  The fact that Venetia Williams ran 100/1 chance ROUERGATE at Cheltenham the other week is an indication that she should go well in this grade/company, whilst SHE’S GINA completes my trio against the other five contenders in what will hopefully remain a ‘dead eight’ contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 8/15 favourite was beaten but ran well enough to secure a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Hope’s Wishes (heavy)

 

3.40: CITY SUPREME and SOMECHINE appeal as the value for money calls in this short field event with both horses able to act under the prevailing conditions.  CITY SUPREME has been off for a while and patience could be rewarded connections now, whilst SOMCHINE is something of a course specialist having recorded two of his six victories here at Wincanton.  It’s also worth noting that the Seamus Mullins representative has finished ‘in the three’ in 60% of his assignments to date.  New readers might want to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: One of the two 5/2 joint favourites claimed a Placepot position by winning this event last year.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/6—Somchine (soft & heavy)

 

4.15: You might have to hurry to obtain the respective prices of 10/1 and 25/1 about SONOFTHEKING and ACHILLE this morning, as I anticipate both horses being backed down to around the 7/1 and 16/1 marks by the time that the shops open for business later this morning.  This pair offer value for money from my viewpoint, whilst adding BLACKMILL into the Placepot equation.  Colin Tizzard confuses things towards the top of the market by running two horses, though The Cider Maker or Cucklington fail to appeal at the prices on offer at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 10/3 favourite was unplaced in another short field contest on the card.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Sonoftheking (soft)

1/2—Invicta Lake (good)

2/7—Cucklington (2 x soft)

4/11—Goring One (2 x soft – good – good to firm)

1/9—General Girling (heavy)

 

4.45: Although Distracted is a heavy ground course winner, the ten-year-old should be comfortable brushed aside in the company of UNIONISTE and CARRAIG MOR, though choosing between this pair is a tough call.  The two horses are listed in order of preference only because of the heavy ground success by the first named Paul Nicholls raider, whilst pilot David Maxwell will be riding with plenty of confidence given that his last two mounts won.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 4/6 market leader finished behind horses which filled the frame at 16/1 & 33/1 which put the icing on the Placepot cake and no mistake!

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Unioniste (heavy)

1/1—Distracted (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 8th March

CARLISLE – MARCH 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £48.80 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 6 (Sory), 3 (Frightened Rabbit) & 5 (Once An Angel)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Pinch Of Ginger) & 2 (Asking Questions)

Leg 3 (3.25): 3 (Instingtive), 2 (Shanaway) & 1 (Budarri)

Leg 4 (3.55): 2 (Major Hindrance), 4 (Never Up) & 5 (Grove Silver)

Leg 5 (4.30): 1 (Louse Talk)

Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Cultram Abbey), 2 (Jimmy The Jetplane) & 4 (Killer Crow)

Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wincanton: 34.20 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £27.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Southwell: £44.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Apologies for the late/brief offering due to illness.  Hopefully back with you tomorrow - firing on all cylinders.

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 17th February

ASCOT – FEBRUARY 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £76.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 5 (Dame De Compagne)

Leg 2 (1.50): 4 (Ms Parfois), 1 (Black Corton) & 3 (Mount News)

Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Tenor Nivernais), 1 (Gold Present) & 3 (Royal Encore)

Leg 4 (3.00): 4 (Kildisart), 7 (Le Patriote) & 5 (Dieg Man)

Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Coney Island) & 5 (Top Notch)

Leg 6 (4.10): 7 (Ballyheigue Bay), 11 (Laugharne) & 2 (Templeross)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: Five and six-year-old have (equally) shared six of the last seven contests between them. Paul Nicholls held two options for CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK today and it’s interesting to note that the other race was an event at Wincanton which Paul has won for each of the last five years, now leaving the trainer without a runner in that contest.  Such a move is clear indication that Paul was ready to throw his five-year-old Black Sam Bellamy gelding into this tougher assignment following two (soft and heavy ground) victories at Wincanton thus far.  Six-year-old Count Meribel is not easily overlooked, though the Twiston-Davies raider has to overcome a slightly disappointing effort the last day, albeit in decent company.  Accordingly, DAME DE COMPAGNE (receives ten pounds from Captain Cattistock) is offered up as the main threat to the marginal selection in a fascinating opening event.

Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners, albeit the 2012 (4/7) favourite could only secure the silver medal, whilst a 4/9 jolly was another Placepot casualty despite finishing second in what was a 'win only' contest.

Record of the course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Count Meribel (good to soft)

 

1.50: Seven-year-olds have won 11 of the last 19 renewals of this ‘Reynoldstown’ event and with only a 33/1 chance in opposition to three vintage representatives, the trend looks set to be extended.  This is going to be a big day for Ruth Jefferson, with two highly regarded inmates strutting their stuff down south following Ruth‘s first winner at Kelso on Thursday.  MOUNT NEWS is first up on behalf of the stable and whilst possessing plenty of undoubted ability, Ruth’s Presenting gelding will need to be a little sharper with his fencing to trouble to front two in the market I fancy.  That said, I will add MOUNT NEWS into my Placepot permutation alongside MS PARFOIS and BLACK CORTON who are listed in order of preference, mainly because of the seven pound concession from one to t’other.  There is also the fact that Anthony Honeyball can do little wrong (recent ratio of 9/21) at present, notwithstanding the fact that Ms Parfois was oh so impressive in each of her victories at Cheltenham, Newbury at Warwick of late.  In truth, I am also influenced by the 2/1 quote for MS PARFOIS over and above even money about Black Corton.

Favourite factor: The last 19 winners have produced a top priced winner of 17/2.  10 favourites secured Placepot positions (eight winners) during the study period.

 

2.25: Anyone who witnessed the thirty length victory of TENOR NIVERNAIS in this event on soft ground last year cannot help but be attracted to the 7/1 odds (generally on offer) about the Venetia Williams raider. Placepot inclusion is taken as read accordingly, whilst 14/1 about the other Anthony Honeyball raider (REGAL ENCORE) on the card also catches the eye. Anthony has already saddled a winner here at Ascot this season with his level stake profit at the track standing at 13 points.  That said, I fully respect the chance of GOLD PRESENT who could yet be anything in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame to date (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Gold Present (good to soft)

2/4—Tenor Niovernais (2 x soft)

1/4—Royal Encore (good to soft)

1/3—Minella Daddy (good to soft)

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3.00: Ten of the last twelve winners (including nine of the last ten gold medallists) have carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst six-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals. Taking the facts and stats into account, I’m offering KILDISART, LE PATRIOTE and DIG MAN against the other six contenders, the trio having been listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last seventeen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three (11/2**, 11/4 and 9/4) winners.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Kildisart (good to soft)

 

3.35: It goes without saying that it is difficult to leave Cue Card out of the equation, especially as he has won this event on his only two starts in the contest in 2013 and again last year.  Time moves against us all unfortunately and if there was just one horse barring the way for Colin Tizzard’s grand servant sentiment might have ruled the day, though with four rapidly improving seven-year-olds in the contest, that option is not a variable with Cue Card now showing distinct signs of wear and tear. Speredek was included in the afore mentioned quartet out of sheer admiration for a horse that does not know the meaning of defeat though on this occasion, CONEY ISLAND, TOP NOTCH and WAITING PATENTLY are three mightily impressive types to take on.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference at the time of writing, though much could change by the time that flag fall arrives!  Barry Geraghty is responsible for giving the Irish raider the marginal call, given that the horse looked beaten the last day but Barry insisted that he was merely idling, giving the impression that there was much more to come from the Flemensfirth gelding, though there needs to be in this company!  In terms of potential future champions, this is the most exhilarating renewal of this event since the old king died.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 19 market leaders during the study period claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include thirteen successful market leaders. Ten of the last twelve favourites have won with the other gold medallists during the period scoring at 11/2 & 4/1.

Record of the course winners in the feature race on the card:

1/1—Coney Isalnd (good to soft)

2/2—Cue Card (2 x soft)

3/3—Top Notch (2 x good to soft & soft)

 

4.10: The booking of James Bowen aboard BALLYHEIGUE BAY catches the eye and no mistake, as does the amount of cash waiting in the positive queue, just in case potential layers miss the trainer/jockey combination, given that Chris Gordon landed another decent prize with Tara Bridge at Sandown yesterday.  Others for the mix include TEMPLEROSS, BUCKLE STREET and the potential ‘dark horse’ in the contest LAUGHARNE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have claimed bronze medals when securing Placepot positions to date.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Desert Sensation (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal ratios (in brackets) and five year figures at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners--Nicky Henderson—6/38 (loss of 9 points) – 30/154 (loss of 39)

4—Gary Moore (3/20 – loss of 5) – 8/82 – loss of 25

4—David Pipe (0/1) – 9/59 – loss of 3

3—Kim Bailey (1/5 – loss of 2) – 3/32 – loss of 23)

3—Martin Keighley (First runners at Ascot this season) – 1/12 +2

3—Paul Nicholls (2/11 – loss of 5) – 29/152 – loss of 22)

2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3) – 1/8 +13

2—Ruth Jefferson (First ever runners at Ascot)

2—Suzy Smith (0/5) – 1/14 – loss of 7

2—Colin Tizzard (0/15) – 8/63 – loss of 3

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/10 – loss of 5) – 2/46 – loss of 35

2—Tim Vaughan (First runners at Ascot this season) – 0/10)

2—Evan Williams (0/4) – 3/46 – loss of 21

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £95.30 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

Wincanton: £66.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £55.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £61.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 1st February

WINCANTON – FEBRUARY 1

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £94.50 (7 favourites: 4 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 12 (Aardwolf) & 5 (Molineaux)

Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Persian Delight), 3 (San Pedro De Senam) & 2 (Valhalla)

Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Drops Of Jupitor), 6 (Jubilympics) & 8 (Rosemary Russet)

Leg 4 (3.00): 3 (On The Road), 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 4 (Here’s Herbie)

Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Siruh Du Lac), 2 (Kayf Adventure) & 1 (Vic De Touzain)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Unioniste)

Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: I fully understand why the bookmakers are only offering odds on prices about MOLINEAUX in the dead of night, though it would take a brave investor to pile in too heavily on a horse which faces its tenth assignment as a maiden.  Warren Greatrex looks the main threat here with the in form trainer having declared AARDWOLF who reached the heady heights of 93 on the level as a winner of three races.  Not beaten far at Pontefract on soft ground on one occasion, Richard Johnson’s mount should handle conditions as well any of his rivals whereby at the odds of offer at 11/4, AARDWOLF would be the marginal call.  If that price drifts too much over the next few hours however, my interest from a win perspective would be diluted.

Favourite factor: The first two (odds on) favourites had prevailed at odds of 1/4 & 8/11 before the next market leader could only plod home in fourth placed behind horses which filled the frame at 6/1, 14/1 & 10/1.  Thankfully, the race reverted to type last year when the 5/4 favourite obliged.

 

1.50: As winners on heavy ground, SAN PEDRO DE SENAM and VALHALLA are entitled to plenty of respect, though this could be the chance for PERSIAN DELIGHT to make up for lost time as an eight-year-old having only tackled seven assignments to date, two of which were successful.  All three runners are included in my permutation but that said, I would like the latter named Paul Nicholls raider to score, if only to see how good the Lucarno gelding might have been if avoiding injuries down the years.  Maybe it’s not too late in the day for PERSIAN DELIGHT to pick up some decent prizes from here on in.

Favourite factor: Five of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (9/4**, 5/4, Evens & 10/11) winners.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/3—Persian Delight (soft)

 

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2.25: Six-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, yet no vintage representatives were involved twelve months ago.  That is not the case this time around however, with eight of the nine entries representing the vintage!  Anthony Honeyball can do little wrong just now and though Solstice Twilight will struggle to become involved at the business end of the contest from my viewpoint, stable companion DROPS OF JUPITOR will go close to extending the trainer’s recent tally which stands at 6/10. That said, this ground will be softer than when she has scored before, whilst a new trip is also tried for the first time whereby the trade press quote of 4/6 looks plenty skinny enough.  JUBILYMPICS and ROSEMARY RUSSET boast claims on the best of their form, whilst Kayley Woollacott (Dinos Benefit) will prefer the peace and quiet to the hubbub at Cheltenham on Saturday. This is her (south-west) manor however, whereby there will be a massive ovation for Kayley and the team if the mare can lift this prize.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won seven of the last eleven contests, whilst favourites came to the gig on a five timer two years ago, only for the 11/10 market leader to find the 6/4 second favourite too strong close home.

 

3.00: Bryony Frost takes her only booked ride (until Sunday at the earliest at the time of writing) aboard CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK and with Lizzie Kelly aboard another horse in the next race with similar (decent) claims, the ladies could well show the boys the way home, as was the case at Prestbry Park on Saturday of course.  There is (at least) one potential thorn standing in her way here as ON THE ROAD is re-routed to timber following two efforts over the larger obstacles of late.  Proven on heavy ground (gold and silver medals via three relevant assignments to date), the Evan Williams raider would go very close here if back to his best.  Lucy Gardner (Here’s Herbie) and Bridget Andrews (Hurricane Hollow) also have rides in the race, making the girls 4/6 chances to land the spoils between them before the form book is taken into account.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 10/3 market leader (frustratingly) finished fourth, missing out on a toteplacepot position in the process as did last the next 15/8 favourite.  The following 13/8 (Paul Nicholls trained) market leader duly obliged before last year’s 11/4 favourite fell when moving into contention.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Captain Cattistock (soft)

 

3.35: Three of the five winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-8 and with the projected heavy conditions in place, it would come as no surprise if the Siruh Du Lac went mighty close with Lizzie Kelly still offering great value for her three pound claim.  Remarkably, this is Lizzie’s first ride since winning on Agrapart at Cheltenham on Saturday and for some reason, SIRUH DU LAC is her only mount for the foreseeable future – wake up trainers!  That said, VIC DE TOUZAIN is too big at 12/1 in a place this morning, whilst the ground has come right for KAYF ADVENTURE and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via five renewals) have finished ‘in the three’ (exact science) to date. The statistics include two winning favourites which were both returned at 9/4.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on card:

1/2—Kayf Adventure (heavy)

1/1—Le Boizelo (heavy)

 

4.15: I have made the point several times before that Hunter Chase events have the best record in terms of winning favourites under either code of the sport and with the conditions of this event hugely favouring UNIONISTE, the trend will surely be extended in this grade/company.  Anyone who knocks the exchanges should take into the account the ‘insurance’ that we ‘Potters’ can take out if we have successfully made it through to the final leg of our favourite wager, especially when we can ‘lay back’ at odds of around 1/6 to at least ensure that we are in a ‘no lose’ situation on the day if need be.  UNIONISTE would be giving this pair an additional 15 pounds+ in a handicap event, whereby the Paul Nicholls raider represents ‘banker’ material, given the opportunity of ‘insurance’ if we need it.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have finished in the frame, though we have had to wait until the last two years for the (8/13 & 4/9) market leaders to oblige from a win perspective.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Wincanton card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Anthony Honeyball (3/13 – loss of 1 point) – 9/65 – loss of 24

4—Paul Nicholls (6/34 – loss of 4) – 80/245 – loss of 55

4—Colin Tizzard (6/44 (loss of 21) – 27/225 – loss of 72

3—Philp Hobbs (2/10 – loss of 10) – 23/153 – loss of 38

3—Neil Mulholland (2/20 – loss of 13) – 13/141 – loss of 51

2—Gary Moore (1/7 – loss of 4) – 3/43 – loss of 23

2—Jeremy Scott (2/12 +1) – 10/101 – loss of 43

2—Evan Williams (0/6) – 5/32 +13

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

47 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Towcester: £231.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £1,688.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Southwell: £31.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 18th January

 

LUDLOW – JANUARY 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

£465.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 1 (Melangerie) & 9 (Passing Call)

Leg 2 (1.30): 4 (Shaama Gris), 2 (Happy Diva), 1 (Copper Kay) & 3 (Midnight Target)

Leg 3 (2.00): 2 (Aubusson), 5 (Champagne At Tara) & 3 (Sego Success)

Leg 4 (2.35): 4 (Gortroe Joe), 10 (Master Tradesman) & 2 (Darius Des Bois)

Leg 5 (3.10): 1 (Mendip Express) & 2 (Now Ben)

Leg 6 (3.45): 9 (Gamain) & 6 (Allbarnine)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.00:  James Bowen let the side down relating to his mount Percy Street at Newbury on Wednesday, though MELANGERIE looks a slightly more resolute type with which to go to war with, now accepting that the jockey’s ratio for Nicky Henderson this season has slipped to 5/10!  MELANGERIE came good at the third time of asking over course and distance timber under similar conditions the last day, with connections probably having most to fear from PASSING CALL who represents Alan King who has a decent record at the venue, as you can determine at the foot of the column.
Favourite factor: This is a new race at Ludlow with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Melangerie (soft)

 

1.30: Putting the words mares, novices and steeplechase together does not install a great deal of confidence, especially when contemplating a ‘win only’ event.  The 14/1 quote about Midnight Target is not even off-putting (Paddy Power are well over the top early doors this morning – as short as 8/1 elsewhere), especially as John Croucott’s mare is the only course winner in the line-up representing a trainer whose record here is better than at most other venues.  Yes, the other trio boast more obvious winning claims, though not enough to leave the outsider out of the Placepot mix.  For the record, the ‘main contenders’ are listed in marginal order of preference as SHAAMA GRIS, HAPPY DIVA and COPPER KAY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural even money favourite duly prevailed.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/8—Midnight Target (good)

 

2.00:  Four of the last seven runners saddled by Nick Williams have won, stats which include a 167/1 treble yesterday when Nick’s fourth contender on the day secured a silver medal.  Nick’s only two runners today run on this card, the first of which is AUBUSSON who is overdue another success to add to the four successes thus far, albeit the last of those victories was boasted over two years ago.  The switch back to more conventional fencing following two cross country assignments might bring about a return to winning form.  CHAMPAGNE AT TARA has been a similarly frustrating sort in recent times, whilst SEGO SUCCESS completes what I confess to being a ‘speculative’ trio against the remaining four contenders.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Ludlow programme.

 

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2.35:  Richard Mitford-Slade (two of his last four runners have won) is the latest trainer to take advantage of the outrageous five poind claim of James Bowen and it’s worth noting that the relevant horse MASTER TREADESMAN has been the subject of some overnight support at big prices.  At the time of writing at least, the 25/1 quote in the trade press for the seven-year-old looks fanciful.  Others of some interest in a disappointing event include GORTROE JOE and DARIUS DES BOIS.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite finished nearer last than first when missing out on a Placepot position.

 

3.10: No matter which way you throw the dice in these amateur rider events, jockeyship is of maximum importance and with MENDIP EXPRESS and NOW BEN being ridden by good pilots with plenty of experience in the saddle, their respective Placepot chances are there for all to see, not that I would be having any other bet in the contest.  Virak hit an official ‘dizzy height’ of 159 two years ago but just six subsequent assignments have seen his rating drop 20 pounds and until we witness a return to form by the Paul Nicholls raider, I will swerve the nine-year-old, despite the concession of weight by my two ‘selections’.
Favourite factor: The Hunter Chase event on the card is another new race at Ludlow today.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Now Ben (good)

2/4—Tugboat (good & soft)

 

3.45: Given the Nick Williams stats offered in the third race, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the Placepot claims (at least) of GAMAIN who is due to carry five pounds in future, whatever result transpires this afternoon.  ALLBARNONE is the first Gary Hanmer inmate to take to the racecourse in a while whereby the overnight support for the ten-year-old catches the eye, especially with a five pound claimer in the plate.  The reserve nomination is awarded to THE SWEENEY in a race which will not take a great deal of winning, despite the number of runners facing the starter.

Favourite factor: Another new race to assess.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Nicky Henderson (3/14 +2) – 32/113 – loss of 21 points

4—Dan Skelton (4/17 +1) – 22/95 – loss of 8

3—John Groucott (0/7) – 4/36 +4

3—Philip Hobbs (0/14) – 28/127 – loss of 17

2—Rebecca Curtis (1/6 – level profit/loss this season) – 9/59 – loss of 30

2—Henry Daly (3/17 – loss of 6) – 23/133 – loss of 36

2—Nigel Hawke (0/3) – 2/22 +6

2—Alan King (1/5 +10) – 12/57 +12

2—Donald McCain (0/4) – 3/72 – loss of 45

2—Graeme McPherson (2/4 +20) – 2/28 – loss of 4

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/14 – loss of 6) – 10/102 – loss of 55)

2—John O’Shea (0/1) – 0/32

2—David Pipe (1/10 – loss of 4) 10/65 – marginal loss

2—Katy Price (0/2) – 1/7 – loss of 3 points

2—Venetia Williams (0/11) – 21/162 – loss of 71

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wincanton: £96.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £87.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 1 unplaced – 1 N/R

Southwell: £250.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 6th January

SANDOWN - JANUARY 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £47.20 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 4 (Echo Watt) & 5 (Mister Chow)

Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Angels Antics), 3 (Hitherjaques Lady) & 4 (Midnight Jazz)

Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Theo’s Charm), 6 (Bekkensfirth) & 11 (Amber Gambler)

Leg 4 (1.50): 2 (Gino Trail), 1 (Overturn Express) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)

Leg 5 (2.25): 5 (Western Ryder) & 2 (Mont Des Avaloirs)

Leg 6 (3.00): 13 (Cloudy Too), 1 (Perfect Candidate), 4 (Double Ross) & 9 (Benbens)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: Six of the last eight winners have scored at 8/1 or less, the previous gold medallist having scored on the behalf of the majority of bookmakers at 50/1.  The race is ‘marred’ by the inclusion of WE HAVE A DREAM who is seemingly bound elsewhere (Chepstow).  This causes chaos in attempting to get the Placepot scenario right in the first leg, especially writing this column in the dead of night when nothing is 100% certain.  If I leave Nicky’s horse out and he runs and wins as it should do, I’m in deep trouble.  If I opt for the likely second favourite ECHO WATT and Richard Hobson’s raider misses out having has thousands of units transferred onto him via Nicky’s potential ‘defector’, things will be just as bleak.  I have therefore added MISTER CHOW into the mix, leaving We Have A Dream out of the equation.  Here’s hoping…
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.  That said, odds on chances were turned over from a win perspective at 1/3 (twice) and 10/11 during the period.

 

12.45: A desperately difficult event to assess, given that the eventual decision will be made via a process of elimination, rather than horses standing out from the crowd.  Philip Hobbs (Poppy Kay) has only saddled two winners via 48 runners since the end of November, whilst Dusky Legend reverts back to timber after a nasty fall the last day.  I’m opting for the other three entries from a value for money perspective, listing ANGELS ANTICS, HITHERJACQUES LADY and MIDNIGHT JAZZ in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.  Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 11/4, the other gold medallist having been returned at 9/2.

 

1.20: THEOS CHARM was ‘knocked over’ rather than having fallen the last day and Nick Gifford has found a half decent race to find compensation, should Leighton Aspell’s mount enjoy better luck in running on ground that will not cause connections too much distress.  BEKKENSFIRTH looks a typically well placed Skelton representative, whilst my alternative each way call AMBLER GAMBLER completes my trio against the remaining eight declarations.
Favourite factor: The inaugural (David Pipe trained) 10/3 favourite finished last of the six finishers three years ago, whilst the 11/4 market leader occupied the same position via nine runners twelve months later. Last year’s 7/2 market leader thankfully prevailed for the majority of punters.

 

1.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals yet trainers have ignored the ‘edge’ on this occasion.  Another corker of a Sandown event which leads to so many fine Placepot dividends, purely because of the ‘make up’ of races at this venue.  That said, the wheels would come of if a non runner was to rear its ugly head prior to flag fall but remaining positive, I’m expecting GINO TRAIL, OVERTOWN EXPRESS and ROCK ON ROCKY to get us through towards the promised land of another good dividend.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/2—Speredek (soft)

1/2—Rock On Rocky (good to soft)

2/4—Pearls Legend (good to soft & soft)

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2.25: Paul Nicholls runs just the one horse on the card whereby the chance of MONT DES AVALOIS demands respect, especially as the second of his two victories to date was gained on this type of ground at Aintree the last day.  That said, WESTERN RYDER looks the type that needs to be followed until beaten again, with Richard Johnson thirsting for winners given the Philip Hobbs stat offered earlier on the card.  By comparison, Warren Greatrex saddled nine winners during the course of December and WESTERN RYDER can continue the good run on behalf of the yard.
Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners via ten renewals during the last eleven years.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Sussex Ranger (good to soft)

 

3.00: These events for veterans remain as popular as ever and at least three selections are required to ensure we secure the Placepot dividend if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.  My ‘short list’ consists of CLOUDY TOO, PERFECT CANDIDATE and DOUBLE ROSS.  Sue (and Harvey) Smith are not in the habit of wasting expenses whereby the soft/heavy ground was vital for CLOUDY TOO to take his chance and his 4/7 record on heavy going ensures that the twelve-year-old was the first name on the team sheet.  The reserve nomination is awarded to BENBENS.
Favourite factor: One of the two 7/1 joint favourites won the inaugural contest, though search parties were still out looking for the other beaten market leader several weeks later.  Last year’s 5/1 market leader was similarly lost without trace.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/2—No Duffer (good to soft)

2/9—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)

1/3—Benbens (good to soft)

2/6—Pete The Feat (good to soft & soft)

2/5—Vino Grigio (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Charlie Longsdon (1/5 +21)

4—Gary Moore (1/10 – loss of 4 points)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/4 +14)

3—Nigel Hawke (0/1)

3—Colin Tizzard (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—Tom George (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (2/9 – loss of 5 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (0/5)

2—Kerry Lee (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ben Pauling (1/4 +5)

2—Dan Skelton (1/10 – loss of 5 points)

2—Sue Smith (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ian Williams (0/2)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £11.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wincanton: £393.80 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced

Lingfield: £43.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £57.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot pointers – Tuesday 26th December

KEMPTON - DECEMBER 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £742.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Boxing Day Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.45): 2 (Diese Des Bieffes) & 1 (If The Cap Fits)

Leg 2 (1.20): 2 (Reigning Supreme), 5 (Wenterreadyfreddie) & 8 (Mister Whitaker)

Leg 3 (1.55): 7 (Mia’s Storm), 1 (Ballyoptic) & 4 (Fountains Windfall)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Buveur D’Air) & 5 (The New One)

Leg 5 (3.05): 1 (Bristol De Mai), 4 (Might Bite) & 3 (Fox Norton)

Leg 6 (3.40): 6 (Take To Heart), 2 (Dashing Oscar), 3 (Connetable) & 5 (Jaleo)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

Please note the additional service below relating to stats which are available for every represented trainer at Kempton on Boxing Day.

 

12.45: On a general front, it's worth noting that 48% of the Kempton entries on Boxing Day hail from just five stables, whilst 65% are covered by just eight handlers.  Four and five-year-olds have secured 17 of the last 19 renewals of this opening contest.  Nicky Henderson has secured five renewals during the study period having held two entries at the weekend.  That said, DIESE DES BIEFFES was always the likely declaration and his is the first name on the team sheet, marginally ahead of Harry Fry’s Milan gelding IF THE CAP FITS who boasts a 4/5 record this far.  Harry Whittington boasts a fine record here at Kempton and readers should not dispel the chance of Simply The Betts too quickly.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged via the last 18 renewals, and aside from a 20/1 winner in 1999, the biggest priced gold medallist during the period was returned at 12/1 (four years ago).  14 of the last 19 market leaders have finished in the frame though that does not include last year’s (1/2) favourite which finished fourth.

Record of the course winner in the field: 

1/1--Irish Prophecy (good to soft)

1.20: Six and seven-year-olds have won ten of the last thirteen renewals between them whilst 11 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of eleven stones or more.  Nicky Henderson has won five of the last ten renewals with the trainer holding ‘four cards’ at the penultimate entry stage.  Nicky has offered the green light to REIGNING SUPREME and WENYERREADYFREDDIE and I consider it extremely doubtful that both horses will finish out of the money, though this is race for watching rather than to become involved from a win perspective from my viewpoint.  If Nicky is to be denied another success, the likeliest party-pooper appears to be MISTER WHITAKER, albeit Mick Channon’s only projected runner until next Saturday hails from the ‘inferior’ sector of the weights.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have snared gold via 16 renewals to date, though just five of the other fourteen market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

1.55: This is the race which set up last year’s good Placepot dividend, with the first four horses in the betting finishing out of the frame at 3/1, 10/3 & 11/2 (twice). Six-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals of this event and with BLACK CORTON representing the vintage this time around (alongside SOME INVITATION), the trend could well be extended.  Black Corton continues to defy his ‘doubters’, though there is no denying that this is his biggest test to date.  Some Invitation lacks a little experience over fences in comparison to others, whereby I’m opting (rightly or wrongly) for MIA’S STORM, BALLYOPTIC and FOUNTAINS WINDFALL just ahead of the six-year-olds this time around in a fascinating event.  When you are working this far in advance of a race like this, it is as well to have contenders who will act on the relevant ground when the flag falls, which I have taken into account according.  Foolishly perhaps, I think I have all eventualities covered!
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 20 market leaders have prevailed, whilst 12 favourites secured toteplacepot positions.  15 of the last 20 winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less though that said, two of the last four gold medallists scored at 33/1 & 12/1.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/2--Black Corton (good)

2.30: Six-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals of this Christmas Hurdle and with BUVEUR D’AIR having been declared, the ratio looks likely to be improved upon on Tuesday.  This track is too quick for THE NEW ONE as I have documented before and I hope the favourite puts Nigel’s brave warrior into his place in proper fashion here as I fully expect that The New One could go very close in the ‘Stayers’ sector at the Cheltenham Festival, possibly resulting in a Championship victory at Prestbury Park in March which he so richly deserves.  I’m afraid that will not happen if Nigel enters him in the Champion Hurdle again for all that he would run a good race, pure and simple. The same comment applies here because the old warrior simply refuses to down tools, even when the odds are stacked against him.  Back to the champion hurdler now, because his victory in the ‘Fighting Fifth’ at Newcastle showed that last year’s results where no flash in the pan and whatever ‘Ireland’ sends over in March, I expect Buveur D’Air to repel all challengers at this stage of the season.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last fourteen favourites have won, though the previous four market leaders were all beaten during the study period.  11 of the last 18 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Christmas Hurdle:

1/3--Old Guard (good)

3/6--The New One (2 x good to soft & good)

3.05: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last 17 renewals of the King George, even taking into account that the vintage was not represented two years ago.  FOX NORTON was among just three relevant entries last week and although all three runners have stood their ground, only Colin Tizzard’s raider can be given a chance of lowering the colours of more fancied runners in the contest.   I have to admit that I thought we had seen the best of BRISTOL DE MAIN in his novice days before his resurgence this term when he has simply blown his rivals away.  It’s difficult to tell just how soft the ground will be writing this column over 50 hours in advance of the race but be assured, connections be welcoming every drop of rain between now and flag fall, especially on one of the quickest drying courses in the land.  Providing that it is at least good to soft on all parts of the track, Nigel’s raider will give MIGHT BITE a real race and 4/1 at the time of writing looks too big from my viewpoint, despite the unknown ground factor.  MIGHT BITE is a talented individual and no mistake and last year’s leading novice made short work of the opposition when landing a Listed event at Sandown on his reappearance.  It would going over the top to suggest that THISTLECRACK was the forgotten horse in the contest but he has questions to answer now and from that perspective, his odds fail to attract my attention.
Favourite factor: Although 11 favourites have won the King George during the last 19 years, seven of the other 11 market leaders failed to finish in the frame. Only Jair Du Cochet (pulled up in 2003 behind the much underrated Edredon Bleu), Kauto Star (2010) and Long Run (2011) had failed to snare gold via the ‘jollies perspective’ in the previous 11 years, before joint beaten favourites Cue Card & Dynaste both let the side down in 2013.

Course winners in the 'King George':

1/2--Double Shuffle (good)

1/2--Might Bite (good)

3/4--Tea For Two (2 x good to soft & soft)

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1/1--Thistlecrack (good)

1/1--Whisper (good)

3.40: Nine of the last eleven winners of the finale have carried a minimum burden of 11-2, whilst Nicky Henderson (TAKE TO HEART – set to carry 11-4) has secured three of the last eleven contests. This appears to be the one race on the card that could give bookmakers some breathing space, given that their ledgers (I'm showing my age) will be dominated by so few horses in the previous events on the card.  That said, four-year-olds have won the last four contests though in the circumstances, can you believe that just one of the 26 penultimate stage entries was a four-year-old.  It’s as though trainers want bookmakers to earn a great living, especially as the relevant vintage represented has not been declared for the gig!  The weight trends suggest that it would be churlish to ignore the Placepot claims of DASHING OSCAR, and CONNETABLE alongside Take To Heart.  If the weight trend goes ‘belly up’ this time around, I’m adding JALEO into the mix who would have run from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap but for Alex Ferguson’s useful claim.  I sincerely hope that you back lots of winners over the Christmas period and that you are enjoying the festivities thus far.
Favourite factor: Four of the last 13 favourites have won, whilst eight of the eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Record of course winners in the finale:

2/2--Our Kaempfer (2 x good to soft)

1/2--Doesyourdogbite (good)

1/3--Mr Fickle (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

EVERY TRAINER LISTED with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Boxing Day – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Nicky Henderson (5/18 – loss of 5 points) – 226/888 - +72

5—Gary Moore (0/12) – 28/393 – loss of 167

5—Colin Tizzard (1/3 +8) – 20/125 +48

4—Paul Nicholls (6/12 – loss of 1 point) – 11/6/515 – loss of 55

4—Dan Skelton (0/12) – 8/96 – loss of 69

3—Harry Fry (2/6 – Slight profit) – 12/61 – loss of 12

3—Alan King (1/10 – loss of 7) – 75/475 – loss of 82

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/2 +1) – 46/326 – loss of 51

2—Emma Lavelle (0/2) – 27/180 – loss of 29

2—Ben Pauling (1/3 +2) – 5/31 – loss of 12

1—Peter Bowen (1/2 +5) – 8/57 – loss of 16

1—Ben Case (0/1) – 1/33 – loss of 28

1—Mick Channon (First runner this season) – 7/36 +12

1—Tom George (1/4 – Slight profit) – 24/147 +18

1—Nick Gifford (0/1) – 5/98 – loss of 68

1—Chris Gordon (0/6) – 9/73 +25)

1—Anthony Honeyball (First runner this season) – 0/8

1—Charlie Longsdon (0/5) – 11/101 – loss of 16

1—Phil Middleton (1/1 +10) – 1/10 +1

1—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 5/116 – loss of 61

1—Jonjo O’Neill (1/8 – loss of 4 points) – 32/268 – loss of 125

1—Harry Whittington (1/4 +8) – 4/16 +11

1—Ian Williams (1/3 – Slight loss) – 11/89 +3

1—Nick Williams (0/1) 0 7/44 – loss of 3

52 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fontwell: £83.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 placed

Huntingdon: £73.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Market Rasen: £192.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Sedgefield: £66.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wincanton: £307.10 – 5 favourites (1 void) – 3 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £810.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Wetherby: £3,021.60 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 7th December

WINCANTON - DECEMBER 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: Meeting abandoned

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (12.30): 1 (Drinks Interval), 2 (Allez Jacques) & 4 (Vivant)

Leg 2 (1.00): 4 (Petticoat Tails) & 3 (Midnight Tune)

Leg 3 (1.35): 7 (Pink Gin), 1 (Daklondike) & 4 (Wizards Bridge)

Leg 4 (2.05): 3 (Capeland) & 5 (Global Thrill)

Leg 5 (2.40): 1 (Shanann Star), 12 (Carqalin) & 4 (Leith Hill Legasi)

Leg 6 (3.15): 2 (Chateau Robin) & 6 (Third Act)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

Corresponding results at this meeting during the last six years (five meetings):

32 races – 15 winning favourites – all 32 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Top trainer at the corresponding fixture:

4 winners—Harry Fry (11/4** - 5/2* - 1/2* - 2/13*) – 1 runner on the card: Vivant (12.30)

Average Placepot dividend during the six year study period (five meetings): £38.26

 

12.30: Twelve of the thirteen winners have carried weights of 11-6 or less, whilst five-year-olds have won six of the ten renewals contested during the last twelve years.  The last lone vintage raider (Kap Jazz) scored for yours truly at 5/2, though two relevant raiders are in the field this time around, namely DRINKS INTERVAL and ALLEZ JACQUES.  Being a self-confessed stat anorak, I’m obviously fearful of a decent run from VIVANT from the Harry Fry stable, given the details above.  Given that this could develop into a ‘win only’ contest, I’m including all three horses in my permutation in the dead of night.
Favourite factor: Three (9/4 - 5/2 - 5/4) favourites have obliged during the last thirteen years, though winners were also returned at 50/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-10/1 during the period.

 

1.00: Leading trainers with hot favourites have won all four renewals whereby the chance for PETTICOAT TAILS from the Warren Greatrex yard is there for all to see, whereby the even money quote from Bet365 might not last long this morning.  With (seemingly) only two horses to beat, the potential odds on chance is the first name on the team sheet ahead of MIDNIGHT TUNE.

Favourite factor: All four favourites (1/4 - 8/13 - 6/4 - 11/10) have duly obliged.

 

1.35: It’s great to see the name of Silver Buck remembered from yesteryear, though this little lot would not have been rated within a couple of stone or more of Michael Dickinson’s fine steeplechaser.  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by informing that the last (7/1) winner was the first name (Aachen) on my team sheet. Hoping to double up at a half decent price this time around, I am inclined towards PINK GIN, especially given the career stat of Fergal O’Brien at Wincanton.  Regular readers will know that I hold this trainer in very high regard but the stat that you can find below is alarming to say the least, especially given that his lone raider on the card today (Jennys Surprise) looks likely to go off at around the 5/2 mark. Others to consider accordingly include DAKLONDIKE (David Pipe did me a huge favour yesterday via his 18/1 winner) and WIZARDS BRIDGE.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won, whilst all sixteen contests have been claimed by horses starting at odds of 15/2 or less.  13 of the 16 market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

2.05: Paul Nicholls has 'only' saddled three winners at this corresponding meeting during the last six years which in terms of his 'local venue' makes for negative reading, especially as the last of the trio scored at 1/4.  It’s rare for Paul to actually miss a meeting at his local track but that was going to be the case last year before the meeting was abandoned.  Paul has only offered the green light to a couple of inmates this time around, the first of which is CAPELAND who is not the brightest light shining back at the Ditcheat ranch.  That said, Bryony Frost’s mount has been the subject of some support overnight, as has GLOBAL THRILL which makes for interesting reading.  That could mean that Coeur Blimey is one of the more vulnerable favourites on the card though in Sue Gardner, this is a trainer I rarely (if ever) call the right way.  Don’t be too quick to write off the chance of The Gipper, especially with a half decent five pound claimer in the saddle.
Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed thus far at odds of 5/2 & 1/2.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/4—Ivor’s Queen (good)

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2.45:  The wind is strong enough down here in the west-country, though nothing like the gale it is blowing further north.  I write these comments with the view that the wind could dry out the surface a little at Wincanton today, though probably not enough to stop horses winning who like plenty of moisture in the ground. SHANANN STAR is an interesting outsider given the gold/silver medal efforts at the track in February/March with the ground likely to be in his favour.  Although the form figures of CARQALIN are nothing to write home about, Kim Bailey is saddling regular winners again (three of his last nine inmates have scored) and with little activity in the market at the time of writing, I’m inclined to offer the five-year-old a Placepot chance in this company/grade, especially as this is the youngest horse in the field who is taking on experienced thoroughbreds who have not set the bar very high thus far.  LEITH HILL LAGASI is one such individual, though this three time winner has (at least) finished in the frame (exact science) in 30% of his races under rules to date.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wincanton card.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/6—Shanann Star (soft)

1/6—General Girling (heavy)

3/9—Goring One (good – good to firm – soft)

1/1—How’s Vienna (good to soft)

 

3.15: Kim Bailey’s second (and last) runner on the card is CHATEAU ROBIN and with some semi-serious money in the positive exchange queue for the six-year-old as I close out my column, I expect Kim to saddle another winner at a track where he enjoys a decent record (see stats below).  THIRD ACT could go well at an each way price, with Colin Tizzard’s King’s Theatre gelding marginally preferred to Zayfire Aramis as the main threat to the selection.
Favourite factor: The two market leaders have scored at 3/1 and 7/4 to date.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Ratify (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Wincanton card on Thursday (in brackets) – followed by their stats at the track this season alongside those for the last five years + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Colin Tizzard (1/8 – loss of 5 points) – 27/208 – loss of 55 points

2—Kim Bailey (1/2 +6) – 9/38 +15)

2—Sue Gardner (First runners this season) – 1/25 – loss of 10 points)

2—Ron Hodges (1/1 +4( - 3/18 – loss of 2 points)

2—Anthony Honeyball (0/7) – 6/59 – loss of 29 points)

2—Bernard Llewellyn (1/3 +4) – 1/15 – loss of 8 points)

2—Gary Moore (1/5 – loss of 2 points) – 3/41 – loss of 21 points

2—Paul Nicholls (5/23 +4) – career record: 351/1260 +5

2—Fergal O’Brien (0/1) – negative career record: 0/27

2—David Rees (First runners this season) – 0/1

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (First runners this season) – 5/31 +11)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

52 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Leicester: £37.40 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Market Rasen: £142.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: £594.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 23rd November

WINCANTON - NOVEMBER 23

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £28.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 7 (Somerset Jem), 10 (Daytime Ahead) & 8 (Without Frontier)

Leg 2 (12.50): 7 (Valpone Jelois), 4 (Dubawi) & 1 (Buckhorn Timothy)

Leg 3 (1.25): 5 (Cucklington), 4 (Water Wagtail) & 1 (Drumviredy)

Leg 4 (2.00): 7 (Dreamcatching ) & 5 (See You Well)

Leg 5 (2.35): 5 (Captain Cattistock), 4 (Canelo) & 9 (Storm Home)

Leg 6 (3.10): 2 (Dalaman) & 4 (Lady Longshot)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20:  There was plenty of rain here in the west-country last night whereby the ground could be testing at Wincanton this afternoon, albeit the course is around 40 miles south of us here in Bristol.  Last year’s form is best forgotten as far as SOMERSET JEM is concerned but as a winner on soft and heavy ground thus far, Kevin Bishop’s course winner is the first name on the team sheet.  Although a soft ground winner here at Wincanton, last night’s rain (if it fell in the relevant part of Somerset) might have gone against Kentford Myth, whereby slight preference is for DAYTIME AHEAD and WITHOUT FRONTIER.
Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one successful favourite at 15/8 which scored twelve months ago.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/6—Kentford Myth (good & soft)

1/5—Somerset Jem (soft)

1/2—Daytime Ahead (heavy)

2/11—Karl Marx (2 x good)

 

12.50: Soft ground winner VALPONE JELOIS attempts to become the third consecutive winner for Paul Nicholls in this event and even though Paul’s four-year-old is hardly one of the stable stars, Paul will have had lots of options to maintain his good record in the contest.  DUBAWI ISLAND is the ‘dark horse’ in the race, whilst BUCKHORN TIMOTHY completes my trio against the other five contenders in this ‘dead eight’ event.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders have has finished in the frame (runner up) to date.

 

1.25: CUCKLINGTON and WATER WAGTAIL are being backed overnight to the exclusion of the rest of the field and it will be very disappointing if both horses finish out of the frame from my viewpoint. You can expect the Venetia Williams to rev up several notches with the rain falling more consistently now, especially in the west of the country.  Should money arrive for dual soft ground winner DRUMVIREDY at some stage before flagfall, the support would be worth heeding in a race which should not prove difficult to win.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wincanton card.

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Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/4—Water Wagtail (good to soft)

1/5—Shanann Star (soft)

 

2.00: Local trainer Paul Nicholls boasts a staggering strike rate of 34% over the last five years here at Wincanton, via no less than 78 winners!  Connections of Paul’s four-year-old representative DREAMCATCHING will not be worried about the conditions, as Harry Cobden’s mount has won on different types of ground already despite his short career.  There has been overnight support for I SEE YOU WELL and this pair are my slightly speculative duo with which to go to war in the fourth leg of our favourite wager.  The two horses represent the four-year-old vintage, the youngest in the line up by two years (plus), whereby untapped potential hopefully remains to be seen against older horses who might just have their own ideas about the game by now.
Favourite factor: Both of last year’s inaugural 11/4 joint favourites secured Placepot positions by snaring gold and bronze medals

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:

2/2—Dreamcatching (good to firm & soft)

 

2.35: Paul Nicholls is the man to lead with here, as the local trainer has won ten of the last 18 renewals of this novices’ hurdle event. Paul does not have the race at his mercy on this occasion however, as his representative CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK is joined by CANELO and SOTRM HOME.  Alan King secured a short priced double yesterday and his Mahler gelding Canelo looks to be the main threat to Paul’s raider.
Favourite factor: 17 of the 18 favourites have finished in the frame during the study period.  Nine market leaders snared gold (six of them trained by Paul Nicholls at Ditcheat).

 

3.10: Despite the unimpressive favourite stats below, DALAMAN stands out from the small crowd here, with only LADY LONGSHOT expected to get near the market leader at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Just two favourites (one clear – one joint) have won via the last nine contests.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wincanton card on Thursday followed by this season’s stats at the course + profits losses accrued:

5 runners—Colin Tizzard (4/22 – loss of 27 points)

3—Philip Hobbs (1/10 – loss of 3 points)

3—Seamus Mullins (0/1)

3—Paul Nicholls (4/20 +2)

3—Venetia Williams (0/3)

3—Richard Woollacott (No previous runners this season)

2—Alexandra Dunn (0/1)

2—Richenda Ford (0/2)

2—Harry Fry (2/5 +4)

2—Emma Lavelle (0/7)

2—Neil Mulholland (0/9)

2—Jackie Du Plessis (No previous runners)

2—Jeremy Scott (1/7 – loss of 3 points)

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

54 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Market Rasen: £213.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £261.50 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Newcastle: £400.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2017

Wednesday's Result :

4.40 Kempton : Roman Spinner @ 7/2 BOG WON at 9/2 Keen early, held up towards rear, switched left over 2f out, good headway on outside chasing leaders over 1f out, 2nd inside final furlong, ran on to lead final 100 yards, soon clear

Next up is Thursday's...

1.25 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cucklington @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m1f on Soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner.

And a 6 yr old gelding who is in fine form having finished 221 in his last three outings, having recently (17 days ago) won a handicap novice chase at Plumpton last time out. That was over 3m2f and he takes a slight drop back in trip today.

The drop in trip should help on the stamina front, as the ground is tougher today and whilst he's neither proven nor disproven yet on Soft ground, he did finish 3rd in a bumper on heavy ground and he looked to have plenty on hand when winning LTO.

That said, had he won previously on Soft ground, we'd be looking at 7/4 and not 11/4 and if we're to continue to get on horses at the "right kind" of prices, we have to take horses that don't always tick every box we'd like.

He's trained by Colin Tizzard, whose record in handicap chases here at Wincanton with runners priced at Evens to 8/1 stands at 25/111 (22.5% SR) for 20.1pts (+18.1% ROI) since 2008 from which Class 4 runners are 11/50 (22%) for 3.9pts (+7.8%) whilst on Soft ground they are 9/30 (30%) for 22.4pts (+74.7%).

More generally, since 2008, handicappers racing over trips of 2m6f to 3m3.5f after winning a Novice Chase LTO, 4 to 25 days earlier are 121/487 (24.9% SR) for 119.6pts (+24.6% ROI), from which...

  • males are 114/451 (25.3%) for 133.2pts (+29.5%)
  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 120/448 (26.8%) for 138.6pts (+30.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 49/179 (27.4%) for 18.5pts (+10.4%)
  • on soft ground : 28/121 (23.1%) for 22.4pts (+18.6%)
  • and here at Wincanton : 7/15 (46.7%) for 21.8pts (+145.1%)...

...whilst 6 to 9 yr old male Class 4 chasers who won a handicap chase by 2 to 4 lengths last time out, 11 to 75 days earlier are 61/266 (22.9% SR) for 38.1pts (+14.3% ROI) since 2010, of which those racing over 2m7f to 3m2f are 25/104 (24%) for 46.4pts (+44.6%) with runners here at Wincanton winning 3 of 10 (30%) for 3.98pts (+39.8%).

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Cucklington @ 11/4 BOG which was generally available at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.25 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 11th November

DONCASTER - NOVEMBER 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £305.20 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (11.55): 7 (Yajooll), 9 (Azpetia) & 10 (Lady Willpower)

Leg 2 (12.25): 6 (The British Lion), 10 (Tallow) & 5 (Ornamental)

Leg 3 (1.00): 7 (Roaring Forties), 6 (Easy Victory), 18 (Hajjam) & 8 (Rebel Surge)

Leg 4 (1.35): 1 (Speculative Bid) & 11 (Mobsta)

Leg 5 (2.05): 9 (Sir Dancealot), 6 (Flying Pursuit) & 13 (Sainted)

Leg 6 (2.40): 8 (Vintage Folly) & 3 (Indulged)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

11.55: No less than 40 trainers have just one runner at the meeting, whilst 29 handlers have declared at least two horses at the last meeting of the turf season.  This opening event is as tough as it gets and you will be in a better position than yours truly later in the day, when you can assess which way the market is moving.  In the dead of night, I’m opting for YAJOOLL, AZPETIA and LADY WILLPOWER.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 28 favourites have prevailed, with 18 market leaders claiming toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

10-9-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

10-8-12 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-9-7 (8 ran-heavy)

1-9 (7 ran-heavy)

9-8-1 (12 ran-soft)

6-2-13 (14 ran-soft)

10-14-8 (15 ran-soft)

14-7-12 (15 ran-good)

12-9-7 (15 ran-soft)

10-5-9-11 (16 ran-soft)

6-4-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

8-12-6 (15 ran-good to soft)

7-6-10 (14 ran-soft)

15-16-3 (15 ran-soft)

17-6-7 (15 ran-soft)

7-1-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-6-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

Two divisions were contested at Windsor in 2006

2-3-18 (18 ran-soft)

7-16-19 (21 ran-good to soft)

13-7-11 (14 ran-good)

6-2-4 (13 ran-heavy)

8-15-1 (17 ran-soft)

1-4-12 (21 ran-heavy)

 

12.25: The same comments (and stats) apply here in the second division of the opening event on the card.  My trio against the field consists of THE BRITISH LION (Mark Johnston’s only runner on the card), TALLOW and ORNAMENTAL.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card whereby the same stats above apply here.

 

1.00: Four-year-olds carrying at least nine stones have won three of the last six renewals whilst the same weight trend has proved successful for the last seven contests.  ROARING FORTIES goes well in the ground and with ticks in both of the trend boxes, Rebecca Bastiman’s Invincible Spirit gelding is the first name on the team sheet.  Others to consider include EASY VICTORY, HAJJAM and REBEL SURGE who is expected to outrun his huge price.

Favourite factor: Favourite punters would have won £65.00 to level (£10.00) stakes of late, even though only two market leaders have prevailed via the last nine contests.  Six of the last twelve favourites have claimed Placepot positions.  Five of the last ten winners scored in double figures, ranging in prove between 10/1 and 50/1.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Lost At Sea (good to soft)

1/8—Boots And Spurs (good)

1/4—Twin Appeal (good to soft)

1/12—Khelman (heavy)

 

1.35: The eight winners had carried a maximum weight of 9-1 before last year’s gold medallist was burdened with 9-5.  I am therefore defying the stats (a rare scenario) by opting for David Elsworth’s top weight SPECULATIVE BID under the steadier of 9-10.  Why?  David boasts a great record on Town Moor this season have saddled three of his five runners to winning effect and with SPECULATIVE BID at home under tough conditions, I expect the six-year-old to finish in the frame at the very least.  I have taken leave of my senses in this event as I am offering just one other horse on which to pin my hopes and dreams, namely MOBSTA from Mick Channon’s yard which has endured an erratic season by Mick’s high standards.  That said, Mick’s Bushranger representative is ‘thrown in’ here on the best of his form, especially with a half decent three pound claimer in the saddle.  His two wins on the course have also been gained under soft conditions which suggests that his 20/1 quote is interesting to say the least.

Favourite factor: Five of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include two (6/1 & 4/1) favourites.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

5-6-2-8 (17 ran-good to firm)

7-15-4-10 (21 ran-heavy)

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3-7-1 (14 ran-heavy)

12-8-18-14 (20 ran-soft)

2-5-10-11 (20 ran-good)

2-1-9-6 (21 ran-soft)

13-21-1-3 (21 ran-good to soft)

5-14-4-10 (20 ran-soft)

21-12-5-9 (21 ran-soft)

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Speculative Bid (heavy)

2/4—Muntadab (good & soft)

1/1—Bravery (good to soft)

1/1—Hells Gate (good to firm)

1/3—Lord Of The Rock (soft)

1/5—Steel Train (good to firm)

1/11—Berniewhittle (good)

2/6—Mobsta (2 x soft)

1/4—Right Touch (good to soft)

 

2.05: An argument could be made that this is as tough as the November Handicap which (yet again), does not (unfortunately) play any part in the toteplacepot scenario this year.  The second of the three runners from David Elsworth’s yard runs here in the shape of SIR DANCEALOT who finally came good last time out after some efforts which flattered to deceive.  The admirably consistent FLYING PURSUIT will not have any worries on account of the ground I’ll wager, whilst SAINTED also represents the four-year-old vintage which has prevailed in three of the last four years.  The reserve nomination is awarded to STAKE ACCLAIM.  For the record later on the card, David Elsworth’s third and final runner is Master The World who could outrun his 40/1 quote in the November Handicap.  His last win was gained under soft conditions off just a three pound lower mark whereby the price demands each way interest, albeit to minimum stakes.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, whilst aside from the relevant winners during the period, the last nine market leaders have finished out with the washing.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

7-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-9-8 (14 ran-heavy)

9-2-3 (11 ran-heavy)

5-10-18 (18 ran-soft)

12-7-11 (19 ran-good)

11-2-1 (16 ran-soft)

18-15-7 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-6-2 (12 ran-soft)

10-5-14 (17 ran-soft)

11-1-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-10-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

6-7-2 (13 ran-soft)

5-10-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

20-22-14 (21 ran-good)

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/3—Perfect Pasture (good to soft)

1/3—Flying Pursuit (heavy)

1/3—Sir Dancealot (good to soft)

1/3—Stake Acclaim (soft)

1/1—Sainted (heavy)

 

3.00: Three and four-year-olds have dominated recently landing 13/14 renewals, with junior raiders leading 7-6 during the period.  I’m sticking with those trend selecting one from each vintage, with money having arrived for VINTAGE FOLLY and INDULGED overnight.  If you have selected less horses in your permutation in previous races than yours truly, TIME CHASER would be the obvious alternative option to consider.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have obliged during the study period whilst other gold medallists have been returned at odds of 33/1-25/1-14/1-12/1.  Eight of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Indulged (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Doncaster card on Saturday followed by this season’s stats at the course with profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

8 runners—Richard Fahey (4/96 – loss of 59 points)

6—Keith Dalgleish (2/17 +16)

5—Tim Easterby (1/58 – loss of 52 points)

4—Mick Easterby (1/19 +10)

3—David Elsworth (3/5 +2)

3—David Evans (1/16 – loss of 10 points)

3—William Haggas (6/20 – loss of 4 points)

3—Iain Jardine (0/5)

3—David O’Meara (1/44 – loss of 23 points)

3—Hughie Morrison (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

3—Marcus Tregoning (0/2)

2—Michael Appleby (3/23 +7)

2—Andrew Balding (0/9)

2—David Barron (4/27 +10)

2—Ralph Beckett (3/18 +12)

2—Michael Bell (0/11)

2—Marco Botti (2/14 – Slight profit)

2—Henry Candy (0/6)

2—Scott Dixon (0/22)

2—Michael Dods (0/22)

2—Jim Goldie (1/12 +5)

2—John Gosden (2/28 – loss of 22 points)

2—David C Grittiths (0/8)

2—Dean Ivory (1/8 – loss of 4 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/4)

2—John Quinn (1/5 – loss of 2 points)

2—Kevin Ryan (1/30 – loss of 26 points)

2—Joseph Tuite (No previous runners at Doncaster this season)

2—Ian Williams (3/12 +6)

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card – including Mark Johnston and Richard Hannon, by way of a change!

120 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Aintree: £346.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Kelso: £105.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Wincanton: £70.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar