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Stat of the Day, 7th March 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.20 Catterick : Same Circus @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Raced on inside, led 1st until headed briefly before 5th, headed before 8th, dropped to last and outpaced next, rallied into modest 3rd on long run before 2 out, went 2nd between last 2, no chance with winner)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Myplaceatmidnight 11/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m5½f on Good to Soft ground, worth £6498 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a very consistent, if lightly raced 7 yr old gelding by Midnight Legend (I won't bang on about ML hurdlers today, you'll be glad to hear!), who has finished in the first four home in all eight starts, winning twice. His last three runs have all been over his course and distance, finishing 413 and was only beaten by three lengths LTO after making a momentum-losing mistake at the last hurdle.

Bryony Frost is back on board today and she's 1 from 1 on him after winning here over C&D two starts ago.

This horse is trainer Neil King's only runner on the card and his hurdlers are running really well right now, finishing 2333311741 in the last 14 days with Bryony's own record on those horses reading 2331741 and she does tend to ride this track well, having scored 8 times from 31 attempts (25.8% SR) generating 24.3pts profit at an ROI of 78.4% since the start of 2017 and these include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 7/25 (28%) for 28.8pts (+115.1%)
  • over hurdles : 5/17 (29.4%) for 15.2pts (+89.5%)
  • in hcp hurdles : 4/14 (28.6%) for 16.7pts (+119.1%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 6.4pts (+71.4%)
  • in C3 hcp hrds : 3/6 (50%) for 5.58pts (+93%)
  • and in Feb/March : 3/4 (75%) for 20.72pts (+518%)

With regards to the horse's recent form...in UK handicap hurdle races since the start of 2013, runners who won two starts ago and then placed 2nd or 3rd LTO less than three weeks ago are 47/170 (27.7% SR) for 79.6pts (+46.9% ROI), with the following of interest/note today...

  • 5-8 yr olds are 39/131 (29.8%) for 90.7pts (+69.2%)
  • those beaten by 4 lengths or less LTO are 30/94 (31.9%) for 42.2pts (+44.9%)
  • those last seen 16-20 days earlier are 17/74 (23%) for 45.5pts (+61.5%)
  • 5-8 yo's within 4 lengths of winner LTO are 24/72 (33.3%) for 42.9pts (+59.6%)
  • those with a previous C&D win are 7/12 (58.3%) for 17.5pts (+146%)
  • and those trained by Neil King are 3/6 (50%) for 8.17pts (+136.2%)

And as I'm not going to go on about hurdlers sired by the mighty Midnight Legend this time, my final snippets of data relate to trainer Neil King, as since the start of 2014 when his only runner at a track was a hurdler, that runner has won 35 of 230 (15.2% SR) for profits of 144.7pts (+63.2% ROI) and these include...

  • males at 33/193 (17.1%) for 169.1pts (+88.1%)
  • Class 2-4 : 30/177 (16.9%) for 172.5pts (+97.4%)
  • in handicaps : 23/143 (16.1%) for 55.2pts (+38.9%)
  • prize money of £4k-£8k : 15/83 (18.1%) for 44pts (+53.1%)
  • 50-80 miles away from the yard : 16/59 (27.1%) for 77.8pts (+131.8%)
  • March/April : 9/41 (22%) for 43.33pts (+105.7%)
  • Bryony Frost : 4/19 (21.1%) for 7.92pts (+41.7%)
  • and previous C&D winners are 4/13 (30.8%) for 9.16pts (+70.5%)

...whilst Class 2-4, male handicap hurdlers competing for £4k to £8k are 12/51 (23.5% SR) for 56.8pts (+111.4% ROI), with those making only a short 50-80 mile journey from home winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) for 46pts (+287.6%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Myplaceatmidnight 11/2 BOG which was available from Bet365 & Ladbrokes at 4.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th December 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

12.50 Lingfield : Sumkindofking @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, led after 2 out, headed last, stayed on same pace flat) Ran out of steam on ground that was nowhere near Good to Soft (Good in places) as declared by the BHA/course.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.35 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bermeo @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m3f on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding is 1112 in his last four starts and was only beaten by two lengths LTO 17 days ago, despite stepping up in both trip and class. He's now back down on both counts to favoured conditions and looks well set for another good run today.

He was flagged up on one of the angles I've got stored from the Geegeez Query Tool, where I look for Class 4/5 handicap chasers to back. In this instance, trainer Johnny Farrelly's C4/5 hcp chasers at odds of 15/8 to 11/2 (my preferred betting range) are 18 from 42 (42.9% SR) for 41.6pts (+99.1% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these include of relevance today...

  • males at 16/35 (45.7%) for 37.4pts (+106.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 8/18 (44.4%) for 19.6pts (+108.7%)
  • those dropping in trip : 7/15 (46.7%) for 15.67pts (+104.5%)
  • 7 yr olds are 10/14 (71.4%) for 28.4pts (+202.5%)
  • at trips of 3m1.5f to 3m4f : 8/11 (72.7%) for 28.12pts (+255.6%)
  • those dropping in class : 5/10 (50%) for 11.46pts (+114.6%)
  • in 2018 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 7.31pts (+81.2%)
  • and those ridden by Noel Fehily are 3/5 (60%) for 8.17pts (+163.4%)

In addition to that fairly compelling data above, since the start of 2017 in the proper NH season, Johnny's LTO beaten favourites are 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 21.89pts (+218.9% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Bermeo @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 10th Nov 2018

This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Wincanton with the Badger Ales Chase their feature, plus they are also at Doncaster for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also at Aintree to take in one of their contests as always we've got all the trends and stats for the LIVE races.

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.30 – Marathonbet Sportsbook British EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

13/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/14 – Had won at least twice before
11/14 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
11/14 – Had 3 or more runs that season
9/14 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/14 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
8/14 – Unplaced last time out
7/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
7/14 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
2/14 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/14 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/14 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

 

2.05 – Marathonbet Official Global Partner Of Manchester City Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

13/15 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
13/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Had won over 6f before
13/15 – Won from stall 12 or lower
12/15 – Rated 99 or higher
12/15 – Aged 4 or older
10/15 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
8/15 – Had won at Doncaster before
8/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/15 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/15 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Winning mare/filly
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

3.15 - Marathonbet November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV4

12/15 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
12/15 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
12/15 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
12/15 – Favourites that were unplaced
11/15 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
11/15 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
10/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/15 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
10/15 – Placed last time out
10/15 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
2/15 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 5 times in all)
1/15 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995

 

 

Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – Hunts Food Service Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

11/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Aged 7 or younger
8/11 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
8/11 – Rated between 119-129
8/11 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
7/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
7/11 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
5/11 – Had run at the track before
5/11 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Aged 6 years-old
2/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

 

2.25 – Bet At racinguk.com ‘Rising Stars’ Novices Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

11/11 – Had won no more than twice over fences
10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Favourites placed
9/11 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
8/11 – Irish (4) or French (4) bred
8/11 – Aged 6 or younger
7/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2

 

 

3.00 - Unibet Elite Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

14/14 – Aged 7 or younger
13/14 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
12/14 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/14 – Unplaced last time out
9/14 – Rated 150 or lower
9/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/14 – Having first run of the season
5/14 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/14 – Carried 10-6 or less
5/14 – Won with 11-10 in weight
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/14 – Trained by John Quinn
2/14 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

 

3.35 - Badger Ales Trophy (A Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

15/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
13/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
13/15 – Won at least two chase races previously
13/15 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
12/15 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
12/15 –  Raced at the course previously (5 won over fences)
12/15 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
12/15  – Placed in the top four in their last race
10/15 – Favourites placed
10/15 – Raced already that season
9/15 – Irish-bred horse
8/15 – Raced at either Sandown (2), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
8/15 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
7/15 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
7/15 – Priced at double-figures
7/15 – Won their latest race
5/15 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
5/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/15 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 4 of the last 8 years)
Present Man (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/2

 

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

 

2.40 – Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase Cl2 2m4f ITV

13/13 – Aged 9 or younger
13/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Had won 2 or less times over fences before
10/13 – Last raced over 6 months ago
10/13 – Aged 8 or younger
10/13 – Unplaced favourites
9/13 – Had won over 2m4f (or further) over fences before
9/13 – Carried 10-13 or more
7/13 – Rated between 119 and 130
9/13 – Had raced at Aintree before
5/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
1/13 – Winning favourites
On Tour (4/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

 

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2017

Wednesday's Result :

4.40 Kempton : Roman Spinner @ 7/2 BOG WON at 9/2 Keen early, held up towards rear, switched left over 2f out, good headway on outside chasing leaders over 1f out, 2nd inside final furlong, ran on to lead final 100 yards, soon clear

Next up is Thursday's...

1.25 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cucklington @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m1f on Soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner.

And a 6 yr old gelding who is in fine form having finished 221 in his last three outings, having recently (17 days ago) won a handicap novice chase at Plumpton last time out. That was over 3m2f and he takes a slight drop back in trip today.

The drop in trip should help on the stamina front, as the ground is tougher today and whilst he's neither proven nor disproven yet on Soft ground, he did finish 3rd in a bumper on heavy ground and he looked to have plenty on hand when winning LTO.

That said, had he won previously on Soft ground, we'd be looking at 7/4 and not 11/4 and if we're to continue to get on horses at the "right kind" of prices, we have to take horses that don't always tick every box we'd like.

He's trained by Colin Tizzard, whose record in handicap chases here at Wincanton with runners priced at Evens to 8/1 stands at 25/111 (22.5% SR) for 20.1pts (+18.1% ROI) since 2008 from which Class 4 runners are 11/50 (22%) for 3.9pts (+7.8%) whilst on Soft ground they are 9/30 (30%) for 22.4pts (+74.7%).

More generally, since 2008, handicappers racing over trips of 2m6f to 3m3.5f after winning a Novice Chase LTO, 4 to 25 days earlier are 121/487 (24.9% SR) for 119.6pts (+24.6% ROI), from which...

  • males are 114/451 (25.3%) for 133.2pts (+29.5%)
  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 120/448 (26.8%) for 138.6pts (+30.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 49/179 (27.4%) for 18.5pts (+10.4%)
  • on soft ground : 28/121 (23.1%) for 22.4pts (+18.6%)
  • and here at Wincanton : 7/15 (46.7%) for 21.8pts (+145.1%)...

...whilst 6 to 9 yr old male Class 4 chasers who won a handicap chase by 2 to 4 lengths last time out, 11 to 75 days earlier are 61/266 (22.9% SR) for 38.1pts (+14.3% ROI) since 2010, of which those racing over 2m7f to 3m2f are 25/104 (24%) for 46.4pts (+44.6%) with runners here at Wincanton winning 3 of 10 (30%) for 3.98pts (+39.8%).

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Cucklington @ 11/4 BOG which was generally available at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.25 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2017

Friday's Result :

5.45 Wolverhampton : Dreams of Glory @ 9/2 BOG WON at 5/2 Chased leaders, went 2nd well over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, stayed on to win by a neck.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.05 Wincanton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fox Appeal @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

He might be 10 yrs old now, but he's in good form, coming here off the back of a win last time out, 17 days ago.

He's trained by Emma Lavelle, who is 17 from 89 (19.1% SR) for 22pts at an ROI of 24.7% here at Wincanton since 2010.

In addition to that, his case is strengthened by the fact that since 2010, in NH handicap chases, where the top weight is ridden by a 3lb claimer and remains top weight after all jockey claims are considered, there has been 90 winners from 486 (18.5% SR) for 56.4pts (+11.6% ROI) of level stakes profits, including...

  • 69/309 (22.3%) for 106.2pts (+34.4%) over trips of 2m2f to 3m1.5f
  • 22/87 (25.3%) for 39pts (+44.9%) from LTO winners
  • 13/67 (19.4%) for 22.6pts (+33.7%) from 10 yr olds
  • and 3 from 15 (20%) for 14.1pts (+94%) here at Wincanton.

And finally, handicap chasers priced at 11/8 to 8/1, 11-25 days after a win LTO that was preceded by a run of 3 or more successive unplaced efforts are 108/442 (24.4% SR) for 103.8pts (+23.5% ROI) since 2010.

...which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Fox Appeal @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betway, 32Red and 888 Sport at 6.25pm on Friday, although the last two are non-BOG.

There was plenty of 4/1 BOG available elsewhere though and in the interests of fairness and transparency, I'll be settling up at 4/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Sat TV Trends: 7th Jan 2017

Another MASSIVE day for the ITV4 horse racing cameras as they move to Wincanton and Sandown for more LIVE coverage - with the Tolworth Hurdle at the Esher track the weekend feature.

Like every Saturday horse racing trends expert Andy Newton takes you through all the key trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and hopefully find a few winners.

tvtrends-300x73

 

 

 

 

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV4)

1.50 – 32Red Casino Handicap Chase Cl2 2m ITV4

10/10 – Won over at least 2m (chase) previously
9/10 – Ran within the last 2 months
9/10 – Priced 17/2 or shorter
9/10 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/10 – Never raced at Sandown
8/10 – Favourite placed
7/10 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
7/10 – From the top 3 in the betting
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Officially rated 135 or higher
7/10 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
7/10 – Won between 1-4 times over fences in the UK previously
5/10 – Unplaced last time out
5/10 – Winning Favourites
5/10 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
4/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/10 – Went onto win a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Champion Chase, Grand Annual)
3/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/10 – Won their last race
Bold Henry won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 8 running is 5/1


2.25 – 32Red Tolworth Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

12/12 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
12/12 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
11/12 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Priced  5/1 or shorter
10/12 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
10/12 – Came from the top three in the market
10/12 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/12 – Won last time out
9/12 – Placed favourites
8/12 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
7/12 – Won by an Irish bred horse
6/12 – Favourites
6/12 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
4/12 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
4/12 – Ran at either Sandown (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
3/12 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/12 – Ridden by jockey Barry Geraghty
3/12 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
2/12 – Ran at Sandown before
2/12 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
1/12 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Noland 2006)
1/12 - Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle later that season (Yorkhill 2016)
5 or 6 years-old have won 18 of the last 24 runnings
Since 1988 ALL winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 7/2


3.00 - 32RedSport.com Veterans´ Handicap Chase Final (The Final of The 2015 Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m37y ITV4

1 previous running
The David Pipe yard won the race 12 months ago
Tom Scudamore rode the winner in 2016
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 25% record with his chasers here
Trainer Colin Tizzard is just 1 from 23 with his chasers here
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is 1 from 23 with his chasers here
Jockey Daryl Jacob has a 34% record riding over fences at the track
Jockey Sam Twiston-Davies is just 2 from 39 riding over fences here


3.35 –32Red Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV4

10/11 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
10/11 – Won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) previously
10/11 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
9/11 – Unplaced last time out
9/11 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
8/11 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
6/11 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/11 – Officially rated between 127 and 132
6/11 – Priced a double-figure price in the betting
5/11 – Went onto finish unplaced in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
5/11 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
4/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
4/11 – Irish bred
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/11 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/11 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/11 – Trained by Venetia Williams
0/11 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 11/1

Note: 2002 & 2003 runnings were staged at Ascot


Wincanton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RUK/ITV4)


2.40 – Bathwick Tyres Yeovil Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap) Cl3 2m4f35y ITV4

Trainer Nicky Henderson has 40% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain is 2-from-2 with his chasers at the course
Trainer Harry Fry has a 25% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 26% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tom George has a 23% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Neil Mulholland is just 2 from 30 with his chasers at the track


3.15 -  Bathwick Tyres Poole Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f82y ITV4

Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 39% record with his hurdlers here
Trainer Neil King is 2 from 5 with his hurdlers here
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 22% record with his hurdlers here
Trainer Sue Gardner is just 1 from 26 with his hurdlers here
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill is just 1 from 33 with his hurdlers here
Trainer Jamie Snowden is just 1 from 24 with his hurdlers here
Daryl Jacob has a 28% record riding over hurdles here

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Very disappointing run last time for Grand Facile. Using different tactics this time and if all goes well, may have a chance at a fair price being a former CD winner here."
Gary Moore

04/01/17 2nd 25/1

"Prisom - Tried over a mile last time but didn't really enjoy that. The return to 7f is, therefore, a big plus as is the return to Southwell. Looks a race with several (including us) with similar-looking chances, but she is well and so e/w claims."
Gay Kelleway

02/01/17 2nd 9/1

"Omintago - We look to have a decent chance here if running to the same level as last time when second at Wolverhampton. First run on the surface but no reason why it won't suit. Seems to be getting the hang of things now too so everything in place for a big run and looks one of my better chances on the day."
Mick Appleby

02/01/17 1st 11/10

 

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2016

Thursday's Result :

1.20 Chelmsford : Curzon Line @ 5/2 BOG 7th at 6/4 - Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong

Boxing Day's pick goes in the...

1.40 Wincanton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Chakisto @ 7/1 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old won his last effort over hurdles in a similar (C5, 2m) contest at Uttoxeter 12 weeks ago when ridden by today's jockey Alan Johns for the first time. He has run creditably in two chases since then and Mr Johns now jumps back in the saddle for a second time, as the horse reverts back to hurdling.

He acts well enough on soft ground and is still favourably treated based on his previous Irish form and seems overpriced at 7/1 to me today.

His trainer, Tim Vaughan, is 17 from 80 (21.25% SR) for 67.2pts (+84% RO) here at Wincanton since 2009, and with today's contest in mind, those 80 runners are...

  • 16/71 (22.5%) for 57.5pts (+81%) as males
  • 16/69 (23.2%) for 73.1pts (+106%) aged 4 to 8 yrs old
  • 15/66 (22.7%) for 71.3pts (+108%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 13/59 (22%) for 71.8pts (+121.7%) over hurdles
  • 10/57 (17.5%) for 71.2pts (+125%) in handicaps
  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 15.6pts (+47.3%) over 1m7.5f / 2m

In addition to the above, Alan Johns has 21 wins from 164 (12.8% SR) rides on Tim Vaughan's handicap hurdlers since the start of 2015, netting 30.9pts profit at an ROI of 18.8% with those racing over 1m7.5f/2m winning 6 of 35 (17.1%) for 35.6pts (+101.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Chakisto at 7/1 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and at least 6 others (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 9.45pm on Christmas Day (yes, we work Christmas Day for you here at Geegeez!) To see if your preferred bookie is also offering 7/1 BOG, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2016

Thursday's Result :

1.20 Chelmsford : Curzon Line @ 5/2 BOG 7th at 6/4 - Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong

Boxing Day's pick goes in the...

1.40 Wincanton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chakisto @ 7/1 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old won his last effort over hurdles in a similar (C5, 2m) contest at Uttoxeter 12 weeks ago when ridden by today's jockey Alan Johns for the first time. He has run creditably in two chases since then and Mr Johns now jumps back in the saddle for a second time, as the horse reverts back to hurdling.

He acts well enough on soft ground and is still favourably treated based on his previous Irish form and seems overpriced at 7/1 to me today.

His trainer, Tim Vaughan, is 17 from 80 (21.25% SR) for 67.2pts (+84% RO) here at Wincanton since 2009, and with today's contest in mind, those 80 runners are...

  • 16/71 (22.5%) for 57.5pts (+81%) as males
  • 16/69 (23.2%) for 73.1pts (+106%) aged 4 to 8 yrs old
  • 15/66 (22.7%) for 71.3pts (+108%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 13/59 (22%) for 71.8pts (+121.7%) over hurdles
  • 10/57 (17.5%) for 71.2pts (+125%) in handicaps
  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 15.6pts (+47.3%) over 1m7.5f / 2m

In addition to the above, Alan Johns has 21 wins from 164 (12.8% SR) rides on Tim Vaughan's handicap hurdlers since the start of 2015, netting 30.9pts profit at an ROI of 18.8% with those racing over 1m7.5f/2m winning 6 of 35 (17.1%) for 35.6pts (+101.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Chakisto at 7/1 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and at least 6 others (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 9.45pm on Christmas Day (yes, we work Christmas Day for you here at Geegeez!) To see if your preferred bookie is also offering 7/1 BOG, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

 

Stat of the Day, 1st December 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.20 Ffos Las : Copper Birch @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 5/4 (Heavily backed and stayed in touch, jumped slow 6th, soon lost place and outpaced, plugged on before 3 out, never dangerous, beaten by 21 lengths - sigh!)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.45 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tikkapick @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has still to win, but does seem suited by a stamina test akin to the one he'll face today. He's on a reduced/workable mark, but despite a lack of wins has been there or thereabouts of late, finishing 24323 in is last five outings.

His yard couldn't be in better form either and although he's hardly one of the yard's leading lights, his trainer Colin Tizzard is certainly the man of the moment! 8 winners from 25 (32% SR) has given way to 3 winners from 8 over the past week and those have contained some really high profile runners.

We're not quite pitching a that level today, nor are we on one the "prestige tracks", but recent times have been kind to Mr Tizzard and his string when making the short journey to this local venue with 15 winners from 77 runners (19.5% SR) since the start of 2015, resulting in profits of 25.2pts at an ROI of 32.7%, not bad at all for just popping down the road!

With today's race in mind, those 77 runners can be further assessed as follows...

  • males are 13/66 (19.7%) for 30.8pts (+46.7%)
  • during October to February : 15/56 (26.8%) for 46.2pts (+82.4%)
  • in handicaps : 13/49 (26.5%) for 49.2pts (+100.5%)
  • over fences : 9/28 (32.1%) for 40.7pts (+145.5%)
  • after a break of 6-20 days : 5/26 (19.2%) for 34.8pts (+133.8%)
  • and at trips of 3m 1f / 3m 2.5f : 3/8 (37.5%) for 28.6pts (+357%)

AND...Male handicap chasers running in that October to February period are 9 from 23 (39.1% SR) for profits of 45.7pts at an ROI of 198.9%.

...directing us to...a 1pt win bet on Tikkapick at 5/2 BOG from Bet365, Betfair Sports, Betfred, Racebets and/or Totesport, as of 6.20pm on Wednesday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2016

Monday's Result :

3.30 Wolverhampton: Atrayu @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 6/4 (With leader, led over 3f out, headed over 2f out, led again well over 1f out, hard pressed, hung right inside final furlong, headed close home).

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.10 Wincanton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Thundering Home at 7/2 BOG.

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner over this very course and distance on similarly good to firm ground just 5 days ago off a mark of 99, which has remained unaltered due to that contest being a conditional jockeys' event.

That said, he's partnered by the same jockey today, who actually gets to use a 3lb claim, which should help our mount remain competitive and Thundering Home has already won 6 of 19 handicap hurdle races with Tom Bellamy in the saddle, from which they are 5/13 at trips of 2m1f and shorter, 4/8 at odds of 7/1 and shorter, 4/8 running within 15 days of his last run.

When partnered with this jockey, the horse is also 4/10 wearing a tongue tie, 2/4 in Class 5 contests, 2/4 here at Wincanton and 1 from 1 on good to firm ground acquired during Thursday's course and distance triumph.

In addition to the above, UK handicap hurdlers aged 6 and over who last ran 2 to 6 days ago are 251/1394 (18% SR) for 1069pts (+76.7% ROI) profit since the start of 2008, providing they'd had at least one other run in the past three months.

Plus, since the start of 2011, UK handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners and are former course and distance winners have won 194 of 893 races (21.7% SR) for profits of 213.5pts (+23.9% ROI) with those who were C&D winners last time out "doubling up" on 142 of 638 (22.3% SR) occasions for level stakes profits of 149.2pts at an impressive ROI of 23.4%

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Thundering Home at 7/2 BOG with Betfair's Sportsbook, which was the standout price at 6.20pm To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.40 Lingfield : Ask The Guru @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Tracked leaders in 4th, ridden inside final furlong, kept on to take 2nd towards finish)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

2.45 Wincanton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Quite by Chance @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 7yr old gelding is in excellent form, finishing 112 in his last three outings and only narrowly (0.75 lengths) failed to compete his hat-trick last time out despite conceding 20lbs (inc a 5lb jockey claim) to the useful Anthony Honeyball runner As de Fer.

Quite by Chance might well only be 4 from 25 to date, but that doesn't tell the whole story about a horse who is 4/15 in handicap chases with all four wins coming from 10 efforts going right handed and 4 from 10 is much better on the eye!

Of that 4 from 10 record, he is 3 from 6 (21P112) here at Wincanton, 3 from 5 in fields of 8/9 runners (3 from 3 here!), he's 2 from 3 on soft ground and has one win and one runner-up finish over this track and trip, so conditions look perfect here for him.

His trainer, Colin Tizzard's horses have won 4 of 13 (30.8% SR) in the last week, whilst his chasers are 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) over the past fortnight and it's his chasers that interest me here, as since the start of 2015, they have won 7 of 21 (33.3% SR) races here at Wincanton, generating level stakes profits of 28.8pts at an ROI of 137.2% and whilst 21 runners (all male!) in 14 months is a fairly small sample size, it does throw up some interesting angles that are valid today...

  • handicappers are 7/20 (35% SR) for 29.8pts (+149% ROI)
  • those carrying 10-09 and more are 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 30.3pts (+189.5% ROI)
  • those rated (OR) 114 to 135 are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 34.8pts (+232% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 33.3pts (+256.3% ROI)
  • On soft ground : 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 26.9pts (+224% ROI)
  • those priced at 4/1 and shorter are 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 10.15pts (+84.6% ROI)
  • those racing at 2m4f/2m4.5f are 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 13.28pts (+120.7% ROI)
  • 7 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 17.3pts (+246.9% ROI)
  • those ridden by Paddy Brennan are 2/4 (50% SR) for 2.82pts (+71.4% ROI)

And if 21 is a small sample, the secondary stat comes from an original dataset of a mere 3630 runners! As that's how many times a Midnight Legend offspring has hit the track! Regular readers will know of my fondness of this sire, as backing his progeny produces profits.

If you'd backed every Midnight Legend runner since the start of 2008, you'd have celebrated 459 winners from 3202 bets at a strike rate better than 1-in-7 (14.33% SR).

A £20 wager on each runner returns overall profits of £12608, a 19.7% return on all stakes invested. From profitably blind backing over 3200 horses, there is clearly going be a whole host of angles I could (but won't!) bring you, but suffice to say that since the start of 2009, Midnight Legend's handicap chasers are 143/810 (17.7% SR) for 389.8pts (+48.1% ROI), with the following data of particular relevance today...

  • Males are 115/623 (18.5% SR) for 321.4pts (+51.6% ROI)
  • 6-8 yr olds are 90/438 (20.6% SR) for 229.3pts (+52.4% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 37/244 (15.2% SR) for 115pts (+47.1% ROI)
  • On soft ground : 29/170 (17.1% SR) for 34.1pts (+20.1% ROI)
  • here at Wincanton : 10/41 (24.4% SR) for 11.7pts (+28.4% ROI)

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Quite by Chance at 11/4 BOG with any one of the eight firms, who are currently (6.15pm) offering that price. To see what your preferred outlet is quoting, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch, 19th November 2015

Double Dutch, 19th November 2015

A winning day of sorts on Wednesday, as we'd a 1-2 finish in race 1 yielding an 8.3/1 exacta before a runner-up and non-runner in race 2.

This meant no double, but we did get paid out on a half point single on our winning bet in race 1, enabling us to walk away with a small profit.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Court Frontier : WON at 6/4 (adv 4/1)
Westerner Point : 2nd at 6/5 (adv 11/4)
The Exacta paid £9.30 here.
----------------------------------------------------
Percy Veer : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 9/2 = 3.6/1 after R4)
Wakea : non-runner (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
732 winning selections from 2615 = 27.99%
231 winning bets in 678 days = 34.07%

Stakes: 1355.00pts
Returns: 1452.13pts
P/L : +97.13pts (+7.17% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Here are Thursday's selected races...

4.00 Wincanton :

The 15/8 BOG Hopes Wishes comes into this race as the only runner with in their recent formline, as this 5 yr old mare was a winner at Stratford 12 weeks ago, when prevailing by just over 3 lengths on her yard debut for Barry Brennan and with the new handler now having had more time to work with her, further improvement wouldn't be unexpected.

Hopes Wishes' chances are improved (in my opinion, anyway!) by the booking of young Harry Cobden to take the ride, a jockey destined for great things if his start to riding is anything to go by. He still doesn't have too many rides, so tends to make the most of the ones he does get and with today's contest being his own action, we can expect him to give it his all.

Getting the best jockeys for this type of race can often be the difference between winning and losing and the installation of in-form David Noonan on the back of the 7/2 BOG rated Maire Rua can only improve the chances of this 8yr old who makes his handicap debut today.

He acts well on soft/heavy ground and has run well enough here in the past, finishing fourth over course and distance in January and although well beaten here over track and trip last time out, it's fair to assume he'll have needed the run after 269 days off the track for only his second run in 581 days! He's only been inactive for almost four weeks this time, so we should get to see Maire Rua in a true light today.

*

4.55 Chelmsford :

Sunaq was outclassed and well beaten when last seen a little over 7 weeks ago at The Curragh, but in defence of this lightly raced filly, that was a Group 3 contest over 7f and her previous career record had read 1122 before that defeat. She won twice over 6f and then was narrowly beaten twice when not seeing out the step up to 7f and it's thought that her early speed will be best suited down at 5f today.

Sir Mark Prescott has a great record on the A/W and Luke Morris rides his horses well and all things considered, Sunaq really should be the one to beat here at 7/4 BOG.

Art Collection, on the other hand, has a few more yards on the clock after 7 starts and comes here off the back of a win last time out. That was a month ago when producing a career best performance to win at Windsor at odds of 25/1 and blinkers are applied today for the first time in a bid to get a little bit more from him.

His yard are in fine form at the moment and have a good record at this track, as does today's jockey and despite a 5lb rise in weights, a similar level of performance from Art Collection should see him there or thereabouts, but more in the 11/4 BOG region this time!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows

Hopes Wishes / Sunaq @ 6.91/1 (15/8 & 7/4 : SkyBet)
Hopes Wishes / Art Collection @ 9.78/1 (15/8 & 11/4 : SkyBet)
Maire Rua / Sunaq @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Hills)
Maire Rua / Art Collection @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Hills)

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2015

Wednesday's Result :

4.00 Chepstow : Pobbles Bay @ 3/1 BOG : 5th of 7 at 7/2 (Held up in rear, pushed along 6th, never a factor, beaten by 29.5 lengths!)

Thursday's selection runs in the...

3.30 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Whataknight @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Firstly, he's trained by Harry Fry, who you can back blindly and make good money. 106 winners from 421 runners is an excellent 25.2% strike rate and the 158.9pts of level stakes profit is a return of 37.7% above your stakes. So, he's one of the few "bet and forget" trainers around. I do appreciate that not all of you want to back all his runners, so if you wanted an angle relative to this race, you could try the following either in isolation or in combinations...

  • males : 78/325 (24% SR) for 134.3pts (41.3% ROI)
  • aged 5-7 : 76/283 (26.9% SR) for 161.4pts (+57.1% ROI)
  • Class 4 : 39/149 (26.2% SR) for 95.2pts (+63.9% ROI)
  • Soft ground : 27/90 (30% SR) for 42.4pts (47.1% ROI)
  • Novice hurdlers below 10/1 : 28/82 (34.2% SR) for 30.9pts (+37.7% ROI)
  • at Wincanton : 15/58 (25.9% SR) for 26.2pts (+45.1% ROI)
  • ridden by Liam McKenna : 2/4 (50% SR) for 12pts (+300% ROI)

Today is Whataknight's debut under Rules, but he does come here off the back of five consecutive PTP wins, including two on soft ground, so he's clearly no mug, but more interesting (to me, anyway!) is the fact that his father is one of my favourite sires, Midnight Legend!

I like to back Midnight Legend progeny, because, like Harry Fry earlier, they're simply profitable. Since the start of 2008, we're looking at 430 winners from 2969 (14.5% SR) attempts and a strike rate of better than 1-in-7 from a sample size approaching 3,000 is phenomenal and has, in turn, generated some 720.6pts profit at an ROI of 24.3%, which is incredible.

Obviously, not everyone wants over 350 bets a year from one source, so if that's the case with you, maybe one of these sample sizes pertinent to this contest will suit you better...

  • 5-8 yr olds : 311/1979 (15.7% SR) for 661.6pts (+33.4% ROI)
  • September-March inclusive : 307/1955 (15.7% SR) for 780.7pts (+40% ROI)
  • males : 246/1684 (14.6% SR) for 420.1pts (+25% ROI)
  • non-handicaps : 248/1592 (15.6% SR) for 608.3pts (+38.2% ROI)
  • races of 10-13 runners : 130/1014 (12.8% SR) for 528.9pts (+52.2% ROI)
  • novices : 116/792 (14.7% SR) for 253.1pts (+32% ROI)
  • novice hurdlers : 67/577 (11.6% SR) for 107.2pts (+18.6% ROI)
  • soft ground : 90/558 (16.1% SR) for 349.1pts (+62.6% ROI)
  • trained by Harry Fry : 3/12 (25% SR) for 9.3pts (+77.5% ROI)

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Whataknight at 4/1 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook, whilst Ladbrokes also offer the same price but don't/won't go BOG until morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2015

Forgiving Glance was second at 5/2 on Thursday evening and didn't run a bad race at all, he quite simply found one too good for him, as has tended to be the case for us of late. He was beaten by a good five lengths, but such was the strength of his own run, the other five runners were another 6 to 24 lengths further back in a well strung out field.

I know some of you are disheartened at the recent run, but we're not a million miles from picking winners and like Wednesday, we smashed the SP again last night, with our 4/1 bet equating to 160% of the starting price and as I've said before, securing such value is the cornerstone of future success.

Don't get me wrong, I'm as unhappy as you all are with recent results and it hurts to lose money, but we should remember it's the bookies money we're playing with and we're only loaning it to them and I fully intend to start recalling the debt, starting with Friday's...

3.00 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

In the shape of Fergal O'Brien's 7yr old gelding Tangolan, about whom I've just taken 11/4 BOG.

This horse was useful enough over hurdles,but has kicked on further for taking on the bigger obstacles, finishing 112 in three starts to date. He won off marks of 108 and 115 and although he was beaten by a length and a half last time out, 12 days ago off his new mark of 120, his jockey takes 3lbs off today, which could easily account for that margin of defeat.

All his 3 career winsd have come in smaller (8 or less) fields, all within 10 to 30 days of his last run and all at around the 2m4f to 2m5.5f trip, so conditions look favourable for him today and in Fergal O'Brien, he's trained by a man who knows just how to get a tune out of his chasers...

...as since the start of 2010, backing them has been a profitable exercise with 59 winners from 361 (16.3% SR) generating 107.1pts profit at an ROI of 29.7%. He doesn't really have many decent stayers, but his chasers running at trips of 2m1f to 3m1.5f are 50/266 (18.8% SR) for 147.8pts (+55.6% ROI).

It has been very profitable to focus on his 6 to 8 yr old chasers, who have 42 of 234 (18% SR) for 109.4pts (+46.8% ROI), whilst his Class 3 runners are 21/90 (23.3% SR) for 106.2pts (+118% ROI).

Now I know (from my mailbox) that lots of you like the litte 25-30 bets per year microsystems I generate for you from time to time, some of you are building a nice little portfolio with them, which is great. So your Fergal O'Brien chase angle that since the start of 2010 has made profit every year, including this one, is as follows...

...Class 3/4 chasers aged 6 to 9 running over 2m1f to 3m1.5f (very simple one!) are 35/159 (22% SR) for 154.1pts (+96.9% ROI).

Conor Shoemark takes the ride today and although he was beaten into second place on his only ride of the day on Thursday, I was impressed with the way he manfully kept his runner going when they'd looked beaten from a long way out. His 3lb claim is going to be vital here today and I'm buoyed by looking at his performance on the O'Brien horses in the past...

...as since the start of 2013 Conor has ridden 13 winners from just 78 (16.7% SR) attempts on board a Fergal O'Brien chaser and the resultant 18.5pts profit equates to 23.7% of all stakes invested.

At trips of 2m3.5f to 2m5.5f , the partnership has 9 winners from 37 (24.3% SR) for 27.9pts (+75.5% ROI), whilst they are 4/20 920% SR) for 9.35pts (+46.75% ROI) at Class 3 level.

Put together the Shoemark / O'Brien / Class 3 chasers over 2m3.5f to 2m5.5f are 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 20.35pts (+226.1% ROI)

That 11/4 BOG about Tangolan was with Paddy Power, whilst 5/2 BOG is pretty widely available, as you'll see when you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Wincanton

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Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 12th May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 12th May 2015

Close, but no cigar was the outcome from Monday's efforts.

Ralphy Lad was, as I'd expected, pretty comfortable in a two-length victory at Musselburgh, defying both a rise in weight and a step up in trip to land a hat-trick inside 18 days, giving us a good crack at the double 25 minutes later at Wolverhampton and we cam within a half length of landing it.

Both our runners had drifted markedly, but the horses don't know that and Merritt Island (4/1 from 2/1) set about showing why he was the morning favourite, before the money came for Bitttern. As it was, our boy saw off Bittern, but raced quite wide off the home turn in doing so.

This left the inside wide open and eventual winner Edge of Heaven steamed along the rail to nab the lead late on, denying us a 15.25/1 success in the process.

Monday's results were as follows:

Your first 30 days for just £1

Ralphy Lad : WON at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
Titus Bolt : 5th at 9/4 (adv 10/3)
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Merritt Island : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 2/1)
Cassandane : 5th at 17/2 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
571 winning selections from 1994 = 28.64%
179 winning bets in 517 days = 34.62%

Stakes: 1033.50pts
Returns: 1132.16pts

P/L : +98.66pts (+9.55% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Profits have dipped back below the 100pt barrier, so I could do with a pair of winners from...

2.35 Wincanton:

In a race where the runners' past form looks littered with as many letters (F, P, U etc!) as numbers, I'm In Charge looks the safest/most reliable on offer. He is admittedly up 9lbs from his last run, but still gets weight from all his rivals here. He was a comfortable 6 length winner at Fontwell 11 days ago taking his handicap chasing record to 113P31. He's 113 here at Wincanton (all over this trip), likes the better ground and gets on well with today's jockey. He's 3/6 with the tongue tie in place and I'd expect him to win this this at 3/1 BOG (Coral)if he gets round unscathed.

Should the main pick falter for any reason, then we need a Plan B and Days Ahead marginally gets my vote. He was showing signs of a return to form with back to back runner-up finishes here over course and distance, the latter of the two by just 1.5 lengths in a rough race where he was bumped several times and hampered late on. He's had one more run since those efforts, coming down three fom homw when making a really good fist of it and he could make this interesting at 4/1 BOG, if he stays on his feet.

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3.00 Limerick:

Totally Dominant looks the pick of the seven here, a very consistent performer so far with 3 wins, 3 places and a 4th (of 15) to his name from just seven starts and represents the all-conquering Mullins/Walsh partnership. Needless to say that both jockey and trainer both have good personal records here at the track, as well as in a team and both have been amongst the winners of late.

The horse hasn't been overworked and will look to pick up where he left off after a short break since winning on heavy ground at Thurles at the back end of January. Conditions are better here and the 11/4 BOG on offer from BetVictor looks appealing, providing he can see off the challenge from Pyromaniac who has had the benefit of a couple of runs back since his own winter break, making the frame at both Cork (1m2f flat, soft to heavy) and more recently at Punchestown in a decent 2m hurdle 11 days ago: both defeats were by less than three lengths.

Pyromaniac is priced up at 3/1 BOG here with Bet365 and it's worth remembering that back in November, he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 contest, 1.25 lengths ahead of The Govaness (Listed winner since), before competing in a Grade 3 at Ascot before his break. A run approaching that seen at Cheltenham could/should be more than enough to put him right in the mix today off a mark 4lbs lower than the Cheltenham run.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

I'm In Charge / Totally Dominant @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
I'm In Charge/ Pyromaniac @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Betfair SB)
Days Ahead / Totally Dominant @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Days Ahead / Pyromaniac @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : Bet365)