Tag Archive for: Wincanton Racecourse

Racing Insights, Monday 08/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Newcastle
  • 4.00 Lingfield
  • 4.08 Wincanton
  • 4.30 Lingfield

...from which I've selected the 4.08 Wincanton as it's the highest-rated race of the four. It's an 8-runner (Dartmoor Pirate doesn't run), Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...

Home Free has made the frame in each of his five starts to dates, getting off the mark with a 14-lengths success at Lingfield five weeks agao when last seen, whilst Toss Of A Coin is 2 from 2 under rules having justified his odds on favouritism in both starts since leaving his pointing days behind (he also won his last PTP). All the field have won at least one of their last seven races, though and all have had at least one run since the 10th February.

LTO winner Home Free steps up a class for his handicap debut (it's also Toss of a Coin's handicap bow), but both Bourbali (PU LTO) and Issam (15th of 16) drop down a level from Class 2, whilst top-weight Hardy Du Seuil is down two classes after being pulled up in Grand Annual at this year's Cheltenham Festival almost four weeks ago. Issam will also wear cheekpieces for the first time today.

Monviel is the only former course winner, having landed a Class 4, 1m7½f, maiden hurdle back in January 2022, mind you only Bourbali (7th of 16 and 2nd of 5 in two visits) of his rivals have been here before, but three of them; Hardy du Seuil, Bourbali and Toss of a Coin have won over a similar trip to this one...

Instant Expert tells us that only Home Free isn't running off a higher mark than his last win and that he along with Monviel and Toss of a Coin have already won on heavy ground...

...although if truth be told, we've not actually got a great deal of relevant past races to deal with. The trip looks like it has started to be a bit of an issue for American Sniper and Issam, who are a cumulative 0 from 10, although they have both made the frame in three of their defeats...

Feature of the day is, of course, the pace data and we can look at this in two ways. Firstly we can see how similar past races (if there are any) have unfolded via the Pace Analyser, which today says...

...that in 6-10 runner, heavy ground hurdles here at Wincanton over 2m2f to 2m6f (we widen the parameters to give a more workable dataset), that it really paid to be setting the tempo (pace) of the race. This is of course, very useful knowledge, if you know which horses like to lead and which don't.

Thankfully the second facet to our pace offering is the actual pace tab on the race card itself and clicking that will give you something like this...

...suggesting the main pace here is with Toss of a Coin, Bourbali and Monviel, whilst Home Free made all in his comprehensive win last time out.

Summary

Pace and race suitability are key here and Toss of a Coin, Bourbali, Monviel and Home Free are the ones likely to be setting the tempo of the contest and they were the four that make most sense from the Instant Expert data, so they form the half of the field that I'd want to be with here.

You could make a case for all four and I suspect it'll be a decent contest, but having seen the 5.40pm odds...

...it'd be Home Free at 5/1 for me. He looks to have been very leniently treated for his handicap debut and will no doubt need to fend off a few rivals to win, but the price is attractive, as is the 12/1 about Bourbali. Whilst he has struggled over fences this winter, he was a runner-up in a Class 2 contest over this trip on his last hurdles outing, albeit a year ago. Any semblance of that kind of form gives him a chance of making the frame and he's a better horse than 12/1, so he could be a profitable E/W angle.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/12/2023

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Queen of Ipanema must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 1.10 Fakenham
  • 2.40 Fakenham
  • 2.50 Wincanton

I do like to try and marry the daily feature with the free list where possible and today we're able to do so with Pilsdon Pen, who runs in the 2.50 Wincanton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over an extended 2m4f on good to soft ground, that will be soft in places...

Pilsdon Pen won here over course and distance last time out, making him the only one to have won his last outing. Hall Lane was a runner-up, whilst Harjo also made the frame, although he has yet to win any of his six races under Rules. Midnight Midge, Harlem Soul and Pilsdon Pen have all won two of their last seven, Hall Lane won five starts ago and Walk In The Wild won seven races back; he now sports cheekpieces for the first time.

Hall Lane and Pilsdon Pen both ran 26 days ago and their rivals have all raced in the last two months. Midnight Midge and Harlem Soul drop down a class here and Walk In the Wild steps up a level. Harjo is the only one of the six yet to win over a similar trip and three of his rivals (Midnight Midge, Harlem Soul and Pilsdon Pen) have won over course and distance, which leads us nicely into Instant Expert...

...where Hall Lane and Harjo look inexperienced, Midnight Midge looks like he might struggle, but Harlem Soul, Pilsdon Pen and Walk In The Wild all looking well suited by conditions, especially Harlem Soul. A quick look at the place data from those above races doesn't suggest that Midnight Midge has been unlucky...

...but Hall Lane & Harjo's sole efforts carry promise. Our Pace Analyser suggests that we might want be on a horse keen to get on with things...

...which based on this field's last few outings...

...would steer you more towards Walk In The Wild and Harjo as opposed to Harlem Soul and Hall Lane. The ground is soft in places and we should note that only Pilsdon Pen and Walk In The Wild have any soft ground form.

Summary

I don't much like Midnight Midge from Instant Expert and Harlem Soul has been beaten by 68 and 34 lengths in his two starts this term. Hall Lane was second on his chase debut recently despite coming off the back of a 228-day absence and he had Prairie Wolf half a length behind him in third and this horse won a 12-runner, Class 4, 2m4½f handicap chase on good to soft ground at Doncaster last Friday, so that's promising, if he comes on for having had a run and if the form holds out.

Harjo has yet to win under Rules and although third LTO, he was beaten by some fourteen lengths on what was his chasing debut and 14 lengths is a big improvement to find especially as the runner-up that day has been well beaten twice since. Shortlisted horse Pilsdon Pen would be expected to go well again on soft-ish ground, but he's up 6lbs here in a tougher race than last time and can't call upon the services of regular rider Rex Dingle either. Walk In The Wild does have some soft ground form, will be up with the leaders and should be suited by conditions, whereas last time out he was undone by a longer trip on heavy ground.

It's a tricky/competitive race to call here (I wish I'd done the 5.00 Wolverhampton race now!) and none of these tick all the boxes. You could make a case for most if not all of them, but my mind tells me that Walk In The Wild's early (Hills at 3.50pm) 13/2 price offers me a bit more value than the 15/8 about Pilsdon Pen, who's definitely going to be involved.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 07/12/23

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Apologies for the on-off nature of this column over the least week or so, I'm currently cruising the Caribbean (part of my travel agent job!) and on some days the wifi/internet is good and on some days it isn't. Normal service will be resumed next Tuesday, but until then, I'll post every day that I'm able to, so let's crack on!

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 11.12 Southwell
  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 2.05 Wincanton
  • 2.57 Clonmel
  • 3.07 Southwell
  • 3.15 Wincanton

...and I think I'll look at the last of that list, the 3.15 Wincanton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m1f on soft ground that is already heavy in places...

Take Your Time and Not Sure both won last time out and the latter has three wins and two places from his last five outings, whilst Eceparti comes here on a hat-trick after recent back to back wins at Chepstow. The rest of the field bar Striking A Pose and Edeiffs Elton have all won at least once in their last six efforts, but this pair are winless in twelve and eight respectively.

Both 'cold' horses do at least drop down a class here, as does Harlem Soul and Striking A Pose will hopefully benefit from a recent wind op. I say recent, because he only raced seven weeks ago, as did Harlem Soul. Nearly Perfect has been off the track for six months, but he's the only one who hasn't raced in the last seven weeks.

Nearly Perfect is, however, just one of two former course and distance winners in the field with Edeiffs Elton being the other, although Striking A Pose has won a 2m5½f hurdle here before and Harlem Soul has landed a pair of 2m4f chases and a 1m7½f hurdle on this track. Elsewhere, the top three in the weights, Take Your Time, Raddon Top & Not Sure have all won at similar trips to this one.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert, of course and it looks like this today...

...with Striking A Pose looking most vulnerable. Take Your Time and Raddon Top are both heavy ground winners, so they'll not be too concerned if the rain continues to fall, whilst most of the field have won at this grade. Nearly Perfect is an interesting one on paper with a full line of green and running off a mark 12lbs lower than his last win.

The caveats here are that he hasn't raced for six months and has only ran five times since winning over course and distance here on Boxing Day 2020. He did, however, finish 1311 in his four starts that year, staring and ending the year with CD wins here on soft ground, including one at Class 3.

So, if he's tuned up and ready to go, he might be able to surprise a few of his rivals here and the odds are that he's likely to want to get on with things, if the evidence of his last few races are anything to go by...

He looks like he'll have company, though, in the shape of top weight LTO winner Take Your Time and the fellow CD winner Edeiffs Elton. Our Pace Analyser suggests that this is a successful tactic to adopt, based on past similar contests...

Eceparti has also raced keenly in his last two races, so there's a good chance he'll want to join in upfront and we could have some decent early pace for soft/heavy ground stayers' chase, which might well burn a few out before the finish.

Summary

The one I think I like the most is top weight Take Your Time. He's in good nick, scored well on Instant Expert and has a good pace profile for this race. He's currently available at 4/1 with Hills (the only book open right now) and I think that's fair.

He might well have been shorter but for Eceparti being installed as the early 11/8 fav. He's  running really well, of course, having won his last two, but he looks short in the market for me, especially as he hasn't the best record of this field on going/trip. He might well win, but 11/8 makes no appeal to me.

I don't think there's a proper E/W bet for me here, but if he's ready for it, Nearly Perfect might run better than his early 12/1 ticket might suggest.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/04/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Wolverhampton
  • 4.15 Leopardstown
  • 4.35 Wincanton
  • 5.52 Leopardstown
  • 8.15 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted one trainer for 3-day form and one for course 5-year form as follows...

...and with Robert Walford's Amelia's Dance running in one of our 'free' races, it makes sense to look at the 4.35 Wincanton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Mares' Handicap Hurdle over a right-handed 1m7½f on good to soft ground...

None of these come here off the back of a win, but Lady Adare has won four of five career starts, No No Tonic has won two of her last six and Gentle Connections is four from six.

Gentle Connections, Puffin Bay and Somespring Special all step up one class, whilst Addosh is up two grades from the A/W, having failed to complete her last two over hurdles. Something Special is on handicap debut here, it's a second handicap run for Lady Adare.

Puffin Bay turns out for Harry Derham for the first time since leaving Oliver Sherwood and is also tongue-tied for the first time, whilst Lady Adare runs for the first time since a recent wind operation. All bar Amelia's Dance and Somespring Special have previously won over a similar trip and the three course winners, No No Tonic, Puffin Bay & Petticoat Lucy have all scored over course and distance.

In terms of recent activity, No No Tonic, Amelia's Dance, Somespring Special & Petticoat Lucy have all been out fairly recently (19-39 days), Addosh and Lady Adare have been off for 10/12 weeks respectively, whilst Gentle Connections hasn't raced since late October with Puffin Bay rested since July!

Instant Expert suggests that Lady Adare should enjoy the underfoot conditions, but makes us aware that this field haven't really proven themselves at Class 3...

...whilst place form looks like this...

From the place form, No No Tonic looks a decent proposition to make the frame, but at 16lbs above her last winning mark and 2lbs higher than her recent runner-up finish, she might be weighted out of a win. Gentle Connections' win and place from two Class 3 outings might be the best on offer, so let's have a quick look at how many Class 4 wins the field achieved...

...which again suggests that Lady Adare might well be the one best suited here with both Gentle Connections and Addosh faring well. I know from her run of wins that Lady Adare does like to race strongly up with the pace, but based on this field's most recent efforts, I don't think she'll be afforded an easy lead...

...with No No Tonic, Petticoat Lady, Gentle Connections and Puffin Bay all also liking to be near the head of affairs. Amelia's Dance has raced prominently in her last two and Somespring Special was up with the pace last time out, meaning we could have a bit of a tear-up here with Addosh probably the one sitting out the bunfight and that's probably not the best way to approach a short-distance contest here at Wincanton, if the following rings true...

...and I think I'm probably best sticking with the top half of the pace graphic ie  No No Tonic, Lady Adare, Petticoat Lucy and Gentle Connections.

Summary

Having split the field in half for a four-runner shortlist, let's have a quick look at the quartet...

LADY ADARE won a bumper, a maiden hurdle and two novice hurdles in her first four career starts before finishing 6th of 9, beaten by 26 lengths at Taunton on handicap debut in January. That run was off a mark of 130 and came after a break of 321 days. She's had the benefit of that run, has had a wind op and is rated 3lbs lower, so shouldn't be discounted

NO NO TONIC won here over course and distance (she's 211 over C&D) on Boxing Day and was a runner-up in back to back February outings at Chepstow, before being pulled up at Fakenham last time out. She's a pound lighter here and a return to her favoured track-trip might be all she needs.

GENTLE CONNECTIONS won a 2m5f maiden hurdle at Southwell almost a year ago and follwed that up with a hat-trick of novice hurdle wins in May/June. Two unsuccessful runs since that you could make an excuse for (1 at Gr2 and 1 over three miles!), but now rated at 117, the same as her last win, she has to enter calculations.

PETTICOAT LUCY was the three length winner of a 15-runner course and distance contest here on Boxing Day 2021 on just her second effort over hurdles, but has failed to win since, finishing P84P43, but did go well at Chepstow last time out, when beat 3rd of 12, beaten by less than 4 lengths off a pound heavier than today.

I'm not sure that the above has really clarified things, but it does suggest that we might well have a really competitive affair on our hands. I think any of the four could win and they all have the right pace profile, so I should probably walk away and advise NO BET, but if I was to have or even just advice a bet, I'd consider the market for any possible value and as it looks like this...

Lady Adare 9/4 (Bet365/Hills)
No No Tonic 15/2 (Hills)
Petticoat Lucy 9/1 (Hills)
Gentle Connections (14/1 Bet365)

I'd probably swerve the fav and suggest small stakes E/W bets on any or all of the other three.

Good Luck!



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Racing Insights, Thursday 09/03/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.30 Wincanton
  • 4.35 Carlisle
  • 5.15 Newcastle
  • 5.25 Thurles

...from which I'm ignoring Carlisle (weather) and Thurles (not a fan of Irish racing) and I'm going with the 1.30 Wincanton, a 7-runner, Class 3,  5yo+ handicap where they'll go right handed over 21 fences on good ground, that is reportedly firmer in places, but showers are forecast. The trip is just shy of 3m1½f after a 60yd rail movement and here's the card...

Stormy Flight and Windance both won last time out, whilst Bbold, Minella Buster and No Hubs No Hoobs all failed to complete their races, but the latter did at least win two starts back and only Trixster is winless in five, despite being one of just two (along with Stormy Night) to not have an incomplete run in that time.

Three of these (Valsheda 5th LTO, Bbold & Minella Buster both pulled up) ran at this Class last tim, but three (LTO winners Stormy Flight & Windance plus 6th placed Trixster) step up a level and bottom weight No Hubs No Hoobs is up two classes after a fall here over C&D when he reportedly bled.

He had, however won over course and distance here two starts back, on Boxing Day, making him the only C&D winner in the pack. None of the others have won here, but three (Bbold, Windance & Trixster) have won over a similar trip to this one. No Hubs No Hoobs' C&D last run was two months ago now, but Bbold and Minella Buster have been off longer at 73 days, with the remainder all seen in the last month.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert condenses the relevant form profile of the field into a simple to view graphic, which for all NH races looks like this...

...where Stormy Flight has struggled to win at Class 3 (50% place strike rate, though) and is up 9lbs for that last win and Trixster looks ill at ease with the class & distance. Minella Buster is also 9lbs higher than his last win four starts back, but the relatively unexposed Windance is only raised 3lbs for a 16-length success at Fontwell a months ago.

Chase form alone  looks like this...

...where some of the figures don't look as bad if we ignore hurdling form.

Past similar contests have not been kind to hold-up horses...

...but a fairly even amount of success has been shared by those adoption a different running-style. This field's last four outings look like this...

...and bottom weight No Hubs No Hoobs looks the most likely to be the back marker, but I should add that quite a few of these have inconsistent styles.

Summary

Short and hopefully sweet today, but the two LTO winners, Stormy Flight & Windance have to be the two to focus on. There's not really anything jumping out from what I've written above.

STORMY FLIGHT seems to have got his head around chasing and has been a runner-up and then a winner in his last two otuings after a fairly indifferent ten races since winning over hurdles at Uttoxeter almost three years ago. He won quite comfortably lkast time out, getting home by six lengths, but is up in class here and rated 9lbs better, which might eat plenty of a six-length win.

WINDANCE won back to back handicap hurdles in March 2021, but was off track for 580 days from his last hurdle run (May '21) to making his chase debut just three months ago. It took a couple of attempts over fences to get it right, but he won by 16 lengths at Fontwell a month ago, easing right down in the process, yet is only raised 3lbs here.

There's not really a great deal between the two and both won LTO and both are up in class and weight, but Stormy Flight is up 9lbs for a 6-length win and Windance is only up 3lbs for a 16-length romp. He's less exposed (10 races to 24) and with Anthony Honeyball's runners in such great form over the last month, I'm siding with Windance over Stormy Flight.

The bookies disagree and both Bet365 and Hills have Windance at 3/1 with Stormy Flight at 5/4 and 13/8. Both firms are paying three places here and the 7/1 Minella Buster and/or the 9/1 Valsheda might make foir decent E/W bets, especially if the latter gets a lead.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 02/02/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.30 Wincanton
  • 3.00 Wincanton
  • 4.35 Southwell
  • 5.30 Chelmsford

..from which I'm going to look at the 3.00 Wincanton, a 14-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1½f on good to soft ground. It's a stayers' chase, which I do like but 14 runners takes me out of my comfort zone, so I want to quickly cross some of them off and I'll do that by going straight to Instant Expert...

...where I immediately don't like the bottom two on the card. Putdecashonthedash is unplaced in nine runs on good to soft and seven Class 3 races plus is only 1 from 7 on this track, whilst Butterwick Brook has won just one of ten at this grade and one of eleven at 3m-3m2f. They're the two that I'd take out first, but as this kind of race isn't my metier, I'm probably looking initially for an E/W bet, so I'm actually going to rule any out who are in the red for place form at going, class, course or distance and that actually leaves me with just nine...

I left Foxboro in, because he's only had the one run at the trip, but on win stats, he now looks the most vulnerable...

...but now to the racecard itself...

...where sole LTO winner Certainly Red comes seeking a hat-trick and a fourth win in five. Potters Legend is the only one without a relatively recent win and at 13, he's the oldest in the race and hasn't won any of his last ten over almost two years. He has made the frame in three of his last five, though, but is up 3lbs here. Tallow for Coal, Nearly Perfect and Moroder were all pulled up last time out, but Moroder had won four straight prior to that run, Tallow For Coal had two wins and a runner-up finish from four, whilst Nearly Perfect was coming back off a 711-day absence and is now back on the same mark as his last win, a course and distance success here on Boxing Day 2020.

He's actually 2 from 2 over course and distance, whilst Certainly Red and Golden Sovereign have also won at this track/trip. None of the others have won here before, but all bar Foxboro have at least won at a similar trip and most of his running has been at 2m4f/2m4½f and I think he's the weakest here now, as we look at pace profiling.

With Foxboro discarded, I'm now looking at 8 runners for four places (5 with Skybet), so I'm still optimistic of finding an E/W bet. The eight remaining runners have raced as follows in their four outings...

...whilst past previous similar races here at this venue have panned out like this...

...which would suggest a pace score in the region of 2.00 to 3.00 for my E/W punt. So, from the eight above, I'm leaving Certainly Red (who I actually think will win, more on that shortly), Nearly Perfect and Champagne Court out of the running, giving me just five to consider.

Summary

When I refer back to Instant Expert (specifically chase form) for my final decision...

...the two that interest me most are Tallow For Coal and Moroder.

Tallow for Coal should enjoy the conditions here, her yard and jockey are in good form, she gets on well with her rider and these stats are of interest...

He didn't go well last time out, but was still pitching in when a mistake 4 out effectively ended his chances, yet prior to that run, he had won two of his previous four outings and has a month to get over his latest exertions.

As for Moroder, he also looks well suited by conditions but needs to bounce back after a poor effort last time out. He won four on the bounce in three months from December 2021, elevating his mark from 113 to a huge 135. He was then off track for nine months returning on New Year's Eve for a first run off that revised mark and it was probably a combination of the weight and the lay-off that saw him toil and get pulled up.

He's down three pounds here and whilst that doesn't get him into the winner's enclosure, I think he has a chance of making the frame. He has stamina to burn, loves the ground and is still relatively unexposed over fences, whilst his yard are 10 from 23 (43.5% SR) with Class 3/4 handicap chasers over 2m7.5f to 3m2.5f on Good/Good To Soft/Soft ground since the start of 2021.

Neither of these are winning but both have chances of a place and at odds of 10/1 and 33/1 respectively, they could be worth backing. As for the winner, that really should be the in-form Certainly Red, who seems to have it all going for him right now. He's a best priced 9/2 with Bet365 which is probably about right, despite it being a pretty big field.



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Roving Reports: Pastures New

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Whilst some members of the Geegeez staff have been halfway around the world to watch the Breeders Cup in the last fortnight, others of us have been to such luxury destinations as *checks notes* Hereford, Ludlow, Exeter and Wincanton, writes David Massey.

Let's be honest here, though, if Matt offered me the tickets for free I'd still not go, as a) I have a flying phobia and b) the jumps season is starting to properly kick into gear. It's not all paddock watching and taking notes, however, I'm still doing some on-course work for the books, and that began with my first visit to Hereford last week.

It must seem, to the casual reader, that all the places I work at are exactly three-and-a-half hours away but that is indeed the time it takes for me to get to Hereford in a two-part trip. The first is from Nottingham to Leicester to get my lift, and that's the easy part; the more difficult second part involves crammed motorways and even when you turn off the M5 and see the sign saying "Hereford 20 miles", you're still the best part of 45 minutes away. Make that an hour if you get caught behind a tractor.

I was told the previous Hereford meeting was decent business, with just 15 books and a good crowd. Today, an extra four bookmakers turning up and the crowd down means it's slim pickings. I take a £1 ew bet from a punter having her first ever bet; she has it on the 8-13 favourite, Marble Sands, in the second race and picks up £2.87. I round it up to £3 for her in the hope she'll have another bet. She doesn't. She can, though, legitimately say to her friends she made a 50% profit on the day, which is something plenty cannot.

We actually got a result in the first, as the 5-1 shot Manintheshadows wins, but that really is a false dawn. That's followed by five out of the next six favourites winning, and two down from me, Martyn of Leicester looks decidedly peaky. "I think we'll have a steak dinner on the way back with what's left", son Stuart bemoans. He's true to his word and sends me a picture of it later that evening.

Next stop, Ludlow. Originally I was going to do this as a day trip but there's a change of plan and instead I'll stay over before Exeter on the Friday. I do like the drive to Ludlow, taking in the town of Much Wenlock, the home of the Olympics, on the way. If you don't believe me, then try and remember the names of the two Olympic mascots for the 2012 London Olympics. There's a good reason they chose the names they did. Have a Google and if you ever get the chance, give Much Wenlock a visit.

If you've never been to Ludlow before and you're using a satnav, you'll think it's sent you wrong when it tells you you've reached your destination and you appear to be in the middle of a field. Have a look around; can you see hurdles and fences surrounding you? Yep, you're there then. It's a strange one, is Ludlow: driving over mats here and there, all the time in the middle of the track. At the golf club, turn right.

The punting started badly, with me managing to lay two winners, but I'd been waiting for Fortescue's half-brother Blenkinsop to make his handicap debut in the last and, stepping up in trip, he duly got there just in time under another great Alice Stevens ride (she's good...) to save the day. Follow him this season, he'll win more.

I stayed over near Gloucester (after calling in at Gloucester Services, one of the great service stations) and although no fire alarms on this occasion, an owl outside my window made sure I got some noise in the night.

It's Exeter the next day. Never has the Exeter press room seen so many people in it, I'm told. An overflow area is required and one is provided. I bump into photographer Alan Crowhurst, up for an award for his "once in a blue moon" shot he managed to get this year. I ask him if that was his mate Ken Pitterson getting a round in, but he tells me that "ITV's Ken Pitterson", as Al refers to him, has gone cashless these days.

The best line Al has ever cracked about Ken was at the Yarmouth festival two years ago. The three of us were walking to the paddock together when Ken was stopped by an avid fan. It's fair to say his shoes had seen better days, the shirt he was wearing looked a step up on a rubbing-rag and his trousers had a hole in them. "You're great you are Ken", says the superfan. "When you're on he telly I follow all your tips." Quick as a flash Al looks at me and quips, "I think that's why he's dressed like that, Ken." Much laughter, even from Kenny P.

Anyway, I think I've seen a really lovely one in Outlaw Peter today. I shall start your cliché bingo card off with "a chaser in the making" and "could be anything" at this stage, but he's superbly put together and I will be disappointed if he doesn't make it near the top of the tree, be it this season or next.

Thyme Hill isn't left with a lot to beat once Press Your luck pulls up, so it's hard to say how good over fences he might be, but he does seem to have grown a little physically and ought to progress. I don't mind the fact he makes a mistake or two, it's how some novices learn to find a leg, and we will know more on his next run.

I fancy War Lord in the Haldon Gold Cup, but he doesn't see which way Greaneteen goes, in fact none of them do. So much for my thoughts of him using this as a warm-up for the Tingle Creek. War Lord finds it all happening a bit quick for him; surely softer ground and/or a step up in trip is now required.

Again, the last digs me out of the doo-doo, with Gerard Mentor holding on by a diminishing 3/4l from the gamble of the day Begin The Luck, who looked outstanding in the paddock and will surely make amends sooner rather than later. He goes off 100-30 but I'd nicked a bit of 11-2 in the morning, and he will pay for the evening meal in Yeovil. I didn't think I was that hungry, but when the nice lady on the reception desk informs me I'm entitled to a pint, main course and a dessert for £15, I can't sign up quick enough...

Excitingly, a trip to Wincanton to finish the week. I've never been so it's another to tick off the list (I'm coming for you Redcar, but not until next year) and what a cracking little track it is. Great facilities, good parade ring access, plenty of room for all and the only shame is the ground, which one jockey describes as "firm, with not much good in it". It has kept runners down a bit and a week of solid rain is probably needed to get it on the soft side. I realise it isn't the only place that needs it, but with cards recently abandoned for waterlogging, it hardly seems fair, does it?

Anyway, I'm there with my mate Becky, who has also taken her horse out of the novice hurdle with the ground. I have a share in her, so we'll have to wait until another day to find out exactly how slow she actually is.

There isn't a dry eye in the house as Frodon wins the Badger Beer, with her regular partner Bryony giving her a peach of a ride to win by 2 1/2l, a last-fence error by her nearest challenger, Lord Accord, helping her cause.

I spoke to Neil Mulholland afterwards, telling him if his had winged the last and chinned Frodon, he probably wouldn't have got out of Wincanton alive. He laughs. "You know what", he says, "I don't mind getting beaten by a good horse."

He thinks for a moment. "A proper horse."

I think that is something we can all agree on.

That nice Mr Nicholls has four of the seven winners, and the locals have pockets stuffed full of money. As I leave, just as the rain starts, I see the Martyn Of Leicester firm paying out again. I've seen that look on his face already this week; it's the same one he wore at Hereford. Steak dinners all round on the way home, again?

- DM



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