Racing Insights, Thursday 02/02/23
Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
- 2.30 Wincanton
- 3.00 Wincanton
- 4.35 Southwell
- 5.30 Chelmsford
..from which I'm going to look at the 3.00 Wincanton, a 14-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1½f on good to soft ground. It's a stayers' chase, which I do like but 14 runners takes me out of my comfort zone, so I want to quickly cross some of them off and I'll do that by going straight to Instant Expert...
...where I immediately don't like the bottom two on the card. Putdecashonthedash is unplaced in nine runs on good to soft and seven Class 3 races plus is only 1 from 7 on this track, whilst Butterwick Brook has won just one of ten at this grade and one of eleven at 3m-3m2f. They're the two that I'd take out first, but as this kind of race isn't my metier, I'm probably looking initially for an E/W bet, so I'm actually going to rule any out who are in the red for place form at going, class, course or distance and that actually leaves me with just nine...
I left Foxboro in, because he's only had the one run at the trip, but on win stats, he now looks the most vulnerable...
...but now to the racecard itself...
...where sole LTO winner Certainly Red comes seeking a hat-trick and a fourth win in five. Potters Legend is the only one without a relatively recent win and at 13, he's the oldest in the race and hasn't won any of his last ten over almost two years. He has made the frame in three of his last five, though, but is up 3lbs here. Tallow for Coal, Nearly Perfect and Moroder were all pulled up last time out, but Moroder had won four straight prior to that run, Tallow For Coal had two wins and a runner-up finish from four, whilst Nearly Perfect was coming back off a 711-day absence and is now back on the same mark as his last win, a course and distance success here on Boxing Day 2020.
He's actually 2 from 2 over course and distance, whilst Certainly Red and Golden Sovereign have also won at this track/trip. None of the others have won here before, but all bar Foxboro have at least won at a similar trip and most of his running has been at 2m4f/2m4½f and I think he's the weakest here now, as we look at pace profiling.
With Foxboro discarded, I'm now looking at 8 runners for four places (5 with Skybet), so I'm still optimistic of finding an E/W bet. The eight remaining runners have raced as follows in their four outings...
...whilst past previous similar races here at this venue have panned out like this...
...which would suggest a pace score in the region of 2.00 to 3.00 for my E/W punt. So, from the eight above, I'm leaving Certainly Red (who I actually think will win, more on that shortly), Nearly Perfect and Champagne Court out of the running, giving me just five to consider.
Summary
When I refer back to Instant Expert (specifically chase form) for my final decision...
...the two that interest me most are Tallow For Coal and Moroder.
Tallow for Coal should enjoy the conditions here, her yard and jockey are in good form, she gets on well with her rider and these stats are of interest...
He didn't go well last time out, but was still pitching in when a mistake 4 out effectively ended his chances, yet prior to that run, he had won two of his previous four outings and has a month to get over his latest exertions.
As for Moroder, he also looks well suited by conditions but needs to bounce back after a poor effort last time out. He won four on the bounce in three months from December 2021, elevating his mark from 113 to a huge 135. He was then off track for nine months returning on New Year's Eve for a first run off that revised mark and it was probably a combination of the weight and the lay-off that saw him toil and get pulled up.
He's down three pounds here and whilst that doesn't get him into the winner's enclosure, I think he has a chance of making the frame. He has stamina to burn, loves the ground and is still relatively unexposed over fences, whilst his yard are 10 from 23 (43.5% SR) with Class 3/4 handicap chasers over 2m7.5f to 3m2.5f on Good/Good To Soft/Soft ground since the start of 2021.
Neither of these are winning but both have chances of a place and at odds of 10/1 and 33/1 respectively, they could be worth backing. As for the winner, that really should be the in-form Certainly Red, who seems to have it all going for him right now. He's a best priced 9/2 with Bet365 which is probably about right, despite it being a pretty big field.
