Tix Picks, 19/11/24

After 17 straight winners highlighted across three days, we came down to earth with a mighty bump in the last leg of yesterday's Leicester placepot, as one of the two A picks refused to race and took no part; and the other performed little better. Galling was that the favourite for a bang in form team sauntered home. Ugh. On we go.

There's a bit of weather around today, but we currently have jumps racing from Carlisle, Fakenham and Limerick; and all-weather meetings from Lingfield and Southwell, the latter having to pass a 10am inspection.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell if it passes its inspection...

We're jumping at the border town of Carlisle today, a midday start, and a more stats-driven approach for the Tix Picks preview.

12.00 Carlisle - Leg 1

A very competitive handicap hurdle to kick off and some unexposed ones. Iain Duncan runs two and both vie for favouritism in the same ownership. Slight preference is for Teddy Mac. A. Jonjo and AJ send one all the way up from Jackdaws Castle near Cheltenham, and they take off 10lb from Keppel Queen's 11-13 by deploying their promising claimer, Benjamin Macey. A.

George Bewley has three places (and a winner) from 10 handicap debut runners in the past 2 years, and a 58% PRB. He gets B action for Wise Move (we'll see about that!). I'll lob the other Duncan horse, Adveram, on B, too; and I'm also taking some C insurance in an inscrutable opener. They'll come from Topkapi Star, Glory Hights and Don Brocco.

12.30 Carlisle - Leg 2

An eight-runner (down from ten already) novices' handicap chase and one more defector will mean only two places. Sheesh. Incredibly, Lucinda Russell has just a 5% win rate at Carlisle, both in the past year and the past five years. On that basis I'm swerving Lady In The Park on A - which might prove remiss. Boomslang has been very consistent, but pays for that with all the weight here; still he's likely to again run well. A. Dream Boy is another to whom that comment applies and, a winner on chase debut last time, he's A too.

On B, we'll take Raceview Road, whose trainer's course record is a concern, and the aforementioned Lady In The Park.

13.03 Carlisle - Leg 3

Leg 3 is a maiden hurdle which looks just a bit more than a toss up between the O'Neills' Monty Bodkin and John McConnell's Ira Hayes, the latter getting the banker nod on account of his trainer's selectively successful forays to Carlisle. Sole A, and a possible place lay insurance option for those so inclined.

Nick Alexander (good track record, good trainer switch record) runs Orkney Blue who also cannot be discounted, but I'm going narrow here.

13.33 Carlisle - Leg 4

Another coin flip and another John McConnell runner, Kevin's Pride. It's 11/1 bar two and 28/1 bar three in this race so take your pick. Both will very likely be placed if they jump round. I'll go with Sandy Thomson's Dedicated Hero this time. A.

14.05 Carlisle - Leg 5

The penultimate leg, if we're still rolling, is a veterans' handicap chase. One nonner so far takes us down to five and so two places. Another absentee and it's win only. With that in mind, we'll cover everything. Flic Ou Voyou is consistent and likely to lead, and he handles quick ground. Obvious A player. Marown has top weight but most of his best form is on softer. B. Envious Editor drops from 0-140 company the past thrice to this 0-130 grade and he's run well many times on quick so he goes on A, too.

Former Grade 1 winner Cornerstone Lad (Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 2019) has shown all his best form on soft or heavy and at two miles. As I write, he's just been taken out - so we're win only. On that basis, although Ladronne has looked out of form in his last four starts, he does fit on back form and must go on B.

14.40 Carlisle - Leg 6

And we close with a deeper than average novices' hurdle. Epic West has point form so we know he jumps and Jamie Snowden sends him a long way north. Easy A. I'm not mad about Koukeo's form, despite a subsequent winner following him home last time, so he goes on B. Prince Of Perth has been out of the frame in two similar contests already and I'm swerving him altogether. But I do quite like Broderick, trained by red hot right now Jennie Candlish. He couldn't go the tempo on fast ground at Sedgefield last time, but at this more galloping track and on softer ground he can make the frame. A. A few of the others look handicap projects for down the line, though at least one might step forward today.

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Which for 5p lines before multipliers gives us the below (£20 staked), as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

Good Luck!
MATT

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