We're spending this week trying to formulate the optimal way to present Tix Picks, and what has immediately become apparent is the misleading nature of the early overnight markets. The upshot of that may be that we need to either publish much later the evening before or, better from an accuracy perspective/worse from an accessibility perspective, in the morning on day of race.
While no decision on that has yet been made, I'm leaning towards morning simply because the market signals are a key component in multi-race betting.
In spite of the market cluelessness, an £18.10 stake in our first attempt returned £121.38 from the two winning tickets below, which is a pretty good start...
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Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows:
Tix Picks meeting / pool: Salisbury, placepot
It looks trickier to me than the markets imply at Salisbury where they host their big meeting of the season, featuring the Dick Poole (Group 3) and some high class-looking fillies races elsewhere on the card. And there's a significant amount of uncertainty about the going, which could lead to both non-runners and different horses being favoured. Exactly what I love to swing at on the placepot!
Currently, the going is reported as good to firm, good in places; but it's raining and there's a lot of rain expected later this morning. As a consequence, I'm going to play the bet based on good to soft/soft (they watered the track earlier in the week) and with field size changes (and therefore fewer placepot places) a potential further imbuggerance. Of course, if I'm wrong, it could be a very early bath. And of course of course, you're better off judging the ground/field sizes/weather closer to the first race off time if you can.
OK, long intro in place, let's get to it.
Leg 1: Beau Jardine is the proven soft ground horse and he's getting backed. Most of his best form is at shorter, however, which is a niggle. Edvard Grieg shaped as though a testing mile was ideal last time but he has only satisfactory form on deeper turf from Ireland; still, he also goes on A. Darysina Gold is consistent and the sort of horse I hate to see in the frame, but completes a triple A assault in the opener. I'm going to throw Finn Russell, Gavi Di Gavi and Outrace on a C ticket, too.
Leg 2: This mile novice for juveniles could take some getting, especially as plenty have never run before. Dissident is a gorgeously-bred half to G1 filly Bluestocking and clear favourite. Enrolled must improve on a last of four on debut; Fanshawe runners have a 60% PRB on second start and the yard could hardly be in better form. I'm not sure about the ground for a son of American Pharoah, however, and the fact he's already been gelded having cost 270,000 guineas is not a positive.
Taking an unraced horse in a contest like this on ground like this is a risk; but I'm banking on him on A. I'll throw a few massive odds C guesses in case, siding with 3, 7, 8, 9, 10. Very much more in hope than expectation.
Leg 3: Nine runners currently in this one, so a couple of withdrawals would take us to only two places. Speculative, I know, but that is very much the shape of today's play. It wouldn't be a surprise if Kingsclere proves the best of these in time: she's a full sister to 2000 Guineas winner Kameko and has been named after Andrew Balding's yard, the sort of thing usually reserved for good'uns. But Kitten's Joy progeny are not tyically great on soft and Balding's first time out record (30%) is a lot lower than his second and third time out record.
I'm swerving her, then, though she's sure to be one to follow; in her place I'll side with Gulya and Silver Ghost. The former is a debutante for Roger Varian (46% placed first time out) by a stallion whose offspring tend to cope with mud; the latter is the most experienced in the field, has been second the last twice and is bred to handle softer.
Leg 4: One NR in the Dick Poole, a 6f fillies' G3, already; and potential for more to follow. Two more out would take us to seven runners. Kingman filly, Tabiti, was ultra-impressive on her debut when making all at Newmarket. But that was good to firm and I'm playing that this will be a lot wetter. Still, Kingman's do fine in the rain so she's not a chuck out; she's just not a banker, either.
I'll add a second A string to my bow in the shape of the obvious one, Jewelry. Unbeaten in one, she danced clear of a biggish field at Newbury (good) last time and, a daughter of Wootton Bassett, ought not to mind the ground.
I'm taking B's here, too, with the experienced and progressive Magic Mild and the unexposed, potentially over-priced Troia. I'm lobbing 1, 3, 4, fav on C as well!
Leg 5: A cracking 6f fillies' handicap and top weight Pinafore can bounce back. She ran better than her finishing position at York last time, weakening in the final furlong of seven there; the step back in trip on ground she is expected to handle looks right. Under The Twilight is three from three at Salisbury, including on soft turf twice. She's back to her last winning mark and is another to have performed better than her finishing position the last twice. Dance And Romance looks the right favourite: she's unexposed and has won on good to soft. She has to be in calculations. Three A's.
Leg 6: The last leg is a really trappy mile handicap for three-year-olds and up. Although he's rising up the weights, Phoenix Passion has five wins from seven mile handicap starts, and is four from four in mile turf handicaps. He's won on good to soft and heavy (and good and good to firm!) and he usually goes forward. Saffie Osborne is riding as well as just about anyone this season so no frets there. This is a step up in class, however.
Faro Di Notte is another with form on softer and is unexposed, this being only his second handicap spin: he was second on 'cap bow last time over a mile at Goodwood. He's on A as well.
Two B's - Monkey Island and Berkshire Nugget; and C's in the shape of Gloucestershire, Aafoor and Beylerbeyi because this race is tough!
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For minimum penny stakes, then, that's a £15.48 play across eight tickets.
There's a very good chance that this octet either fails to collect or returns less than was invested; but I am looking for some carnage and hoping to nick a sliver of it!
Matt
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