2022 Ayr Gold/ Silver/ Bronze Cup Draw & Pace
As they say, prediction is difficult, especially about the future; and what better frame upon which to overlay such haphazard clairvoyance than three 25-runner straight track sprint handicaps? Today and tomorrow, Ayr continues to host its Western meeting which, among many enticing puzzles, features the Ayr Gold Cup and its *two* consolation races, the Silver and Bronze Cups.
Each features a straight line three-quarter mile charge that begins in a chute, runs slightly downhill for the first third before plateauing and then rising a touch until a furlong or so from home where it flattens out. It can be difficult for horses to make ground between three and one furlongs out, and those with a position in the first half of the field are often favoured especially on good or quicker going.
The turf this year looks like being good, good to soft in places and, with the weather drying out, that may also prove an inconvenience to late runners. Or it may not: prediction, after all, is difficult.
The purpose of this piece is not to tip the winners - I know my limits! - but, rather, to try to shortlist the fields based on what we know of the recent past and on this weekend's distribution of speedy early horses.
Ayr Historical Draw / Run Style Heat Map
History is our best friend when it comes to guessing about tomorrow, or this afternoon, or whenever after now, and the following image illustrates the history of 16+ runner six furlong handicaps at Ayr on going between good and good to soft:
It shows a fairly even distribution with the possible exception of horses drawn high that are waited with: this group has struggled a smidge. Front runners and prominent racers have exceeded the 50% percentage of rivals beaten metric average across the track, though by fine margins in the main.
2022 Ayr Bronze Cup Pace Map
Here's how the pace map looks for the Bronze Cup. There's a fairly even distribution of early toe, with Never Dark - who ran well yesterday - low, Monsieur Kodi middle, and Fast And Loose highest of all.
My opening gambit is that the winner may be drawn either in stalls 1 to 6, or in 18 to 25; which is to say I'm lukewarm on the prospects of those drawn middle - especially if, as often happens, the field splits into two and travels close to either rail.
2022 Ayr Silver Cup Pace Map
Pundits often scratch their heads when trying to explain how a draw bias reverses from one race to the next. The reason for this reversal is almost always because there wasn't a draw bias in the first place; rather, there was a proliferation of pace on one side of the track which allowed some horses in that group to get a quicker lead than their counterparts elsewhere on the piste.
A group of fast horses can appear anywhere across a level playing field and be the differentiator, a fact seemingly too tricky for some broadcasters to conjure with. (In fairness, they probably don't have great data viz like us 🙂 )
To the Silver Cup and, bar Emperor Spirit in stall one, the pace looks to be in the bigger numbers here, and I'd be betting the winner to emerge from the highest third or so of the stalls.
2022 Ayr Gold Cup Pace Map
The main event itself, the 2022 Ayr Gold Cup, is more difficult to predict pace wise. As is shown in the visual below, Bergerac (stall 8) and Mr Wagyu (15) are the clear pace horses. But both have options. Will Bergerac tack across towards the far rail (from where stall one emerges)? Will Mr Wagyu turn right from the gate and race up the stands rail? Or will one or both stay centre?
I don't know, and the answer to which stall the winner starts from may depend heavily on this factor. Or it may not: prediction, after all, is... never mind.
From a punting perspective, I'm guessing the two quick early horses jump and run; that is, they go straight rather than deviating towards a rail, towing the group between them - in stalls 9 to 14 - into the race. With so few horses in the pace map's 'prominent' column, they each have a chance to get a relatively uncontested lead, with sufficient distance across the track between them to not take each other on; in that scenario, they are credible all-the-way victors.
2022 Ayr Cups Summary
On paper, or a computer screen, the Gold Cup looks tougher to fathom from a draw/pace perspective than the consolation races. Not that the Silver and Bronze Cups are straightforward to decipher. So, just for fun, I'll say that the Bronze Cup winner will be drawn low, the Silver Cup winner high, and the Gold Cup winner middle. Imagine the pundit confusion should that entirely credible scenario come to pass!
Matt
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Great analyses Matt. On the basis of your pace map yesterday I came to a different conclusion than your ‘just for fun’ one. I thought Fast and Loose would break fast, hug the nearside rail and play ‘catch me if you can,’ and thought Danzan and Le Beau Garcon most likely to catch him. 145 on Bf for Fast and Loose just before the off was lunacy. But then…so near yet so far from my biggest-ever-price single winner. Saver on Danzan only just softened the blow. Did I do the forecast? Sadly not. Rubbish punter. Now for the Silver and Gold…Cheers, Phil
Great effort, Phil. Hopefully we get the lot today!
Matt