Monday Musings: Raising the Stakes in September

Placed as it is in the calendar just as the seasons seem to have turned abruptly from debilitating summer heat to breezy early autumn, Kempton’s September Stakes retains its status as a Group 3 race despite being run on Polytrack, writes Tony Stafford.

Its recent distinguished roll of honour is overshadowed by the two pre-Longchamp wins of the peerless Enable and it was no doubt with that John Gosden trainee’s exploits in mind that Andrew Balding plotted a repeat success for his Kalpana on Saturday.

Following that one’s three Group 1 places this year behind Los Angeles, Whirl and, finally, Calandagan in the King George at Ascot, but no wins, the Juddmonte filly had been promoted to favouritism for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in a month’s time.

It seemed odd that she should have been at such a short price, but no doubt last year’s late season exploits, following the September Stakes with victory in the Fillies and Mares Stakes on Champions Day at Ascot, gave the suggestion she would again be at her best in the autumn this time around.

The reruns of Saturday’s contest and that of a year ago when, under P J McDonald, she challenged on the outside two furlongs from home and drew clear for a four-plus lengths win over Lion’s Pride, had little in common as this time she couldn’t get past Marco Botti’s six-year-old Giavellotto in the closing stages.

Colin Keane challenged at almost precisely the same moment as McDonald had, on the outside, but whereas previously she accelerated then stayed on stoutly, she found very little this time. Commentator Mark Johnson called her “breezing up”, but it wasn’t long before he inserted a note of well-founded caution.

Now she has been pushed out abruptly in the Arc market, one that was further amended after events at Longchamp yesterday, to which I will return later. The consensus is that she might miss the big race in Paris – there’s always Ascot as a backup against the girls.

Giavellotto has been a terrific servant to his trainer, the six-year-old now a winner of eight races topped off by last December’s Longines Hong Kong Vase where he had the globe-trotting Dubai Honour as his nearest pursuer. Oisin Murphy took over the riding of Giavellotto when Andrea Atzeni decamped to Hong Kong at the end of the 2023 season, a move replicated this week by the ultra-professional David Probert, who looks sure to make the best of his opportunity.

The seven-year-old Dubai Honour had been off since May but made a splash with his comeback run yesterday in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden; he’s no doubt building up for another tilt at the massive prizes on offer at the end of the year around the world. His career earnings, mainly from overseas, are just north of the £5 million mark. That exceeds by £2 million the money earned by Haggas’s 118 wins and 119 places from the 142 individual runners he has sent out in the UK in 2025.

The trainer’s latest win came in yesterday’s Garrowby Stakes at York where Elmonjed, the stable second string, prevailed in a tight finish. The race though was marred by the fall a couple of furlongs from home after severe crowding of the Haggas and Shadwell number one Almeraq. His rider, Jim Crowley, and Trevor Whelan, also involved in the melee and a faller from Tiger Bay, both reportedly suffered broken legs.

Haggas remains a long way behind the big three in the trainers’ title race. I suggested the other week that Andrew Balding was coming up on the rails and now he has crept above the Gosdens into second place, by dint of nine wins from 53 runners over the past fortnight. Even Aidan O’Brien might not be in reach unless Ballydoyle wins the St Leger and has a beanfeast at Ascot’s Champions Day next month.

Aidan has secured the services of Christophe Soumillon to replace the injured Ryan Moore, and no doubt the Belgian will be at the Irish Champions fixture next weekend. Presumably then, a domestic jockey will be needed for the St Leger with Wayne Lordan also ruled out, in his case by suspension.

Haggas reckons it’s been a moderate season for him as he hasn’t been a factor in many of the top races, but his skill in handicaps has never been in doubt. He added four more on Saturday, with three of his charges starting favourite. In the case of Crown Of Oaks, overwhelmingly so as he siphoned up a contest at Ascot for horses that had not won more than one race, in laughably easy fashion.

Kneejerk reaction from the bookmakers was to promote the three-year-old to 4/1 favouritism for this month’s Cambridgeshire at Newmarket, neglecting to factor in his extreme unlikeliness to make the cut.

From his mark of 85, he gets the 4lb penalty which brings him equally with nine others at a highest possible position of 79, therefore worst case of 88. Thirty-five can run, so it will be a gamble if Haggas waits to find out if the six and half-length cantering winner gets in. He faces at least a 10lb rise, but cynical fellow trainers waiting for tomorrow morning’s new ratings might be thinking the son of Wootton Bassett could get away with a single figure uplift.

Haggas wasn’t the only four-time scorer on the day. It was Oisin Murphy’s 30^th birthday on Saturday and he celebrated it by adding three further wins to Giavellotto’s. For the second time last week I marvelled at his instinctive understanding of what would suit his mount as he waited until two furlongs from home even to put Hughie Morrison’s handicapper Caprelo into contention in his two-mile handicap.

Always going comfortably, Caprelo could be seen enjoying every moment and, making use of the cutaway in the straight, he brought the improving four-year-old with a smooth run. The winning margin of three lengths could have been extended. Now Hughie will be wondering whether Caprelo’s uplift matches or even exceeds that of Crown Of Oaks!

Earlier in the week, I was at Windsor where Oisin gave hitherto disappointing Glitter Code an instinctively perfect ride which, though no fault of the rider’s, ended in third rather than first place. Oisin said that William Knight’s gelding pulled himself up when hitting the front, otherwise it might have been success at the 16^th attempt.

Oisin’s skill confirmed his owner’s view that he would stay 1m4f and especially as he did so on heavy going. The snag is that Oisin will be elsewhere when Glitter Code reappears at Epsom on Thursday. He’ll be a hard act to follow.

It didn’t take the runaway championship leader long to continue the run of success over at Longchamp yesterday. Teaming up with the Japanese Byzantine Dream, he found a strong finish to edge out the Andre Fabre-trained Sosie by half a length in the Prix Foy, the trial race restricted to four-year-olds and upwards.

Murphy, who has been a regular ally of Japanese runners in Europe and the United States, reckons that, having not raced since May, Byzantine Dream would improve a little for the run and be at his peak back at the track next month.

If Soumillon had expected an instant dividend on his recently announced stand-in job for O’Brien, he would have been disappointed. First, on the strongly supported Henri Matisse in the one-mile Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, he could finish only a fading fifth to Sahlan who had just enough in hand to resist the last-gasp finish of the frustratingly unlucky Rosallion.

One bright spot here was the back-to-form close third for Ballydoyle of The Lion In Winter, belatedly finding some 2025 promise and only a neck adrift of Rosallion. The Breeders’ Cup might now be on his agenda.

Then Whirl, taken wide early in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille for fillies and mares, faded into last place having led in the straight. This race featured the most likely Arc winning performance, as Aventure drew nicely clear of her field.

Last year’s second, both in this race and then the Arc behind Ralph Beckett’s Bluestocking, she had the traditional French preparation with no run in July or August and will be at her peak as she tries to fend off Whirl’s stablemate Minnie Hawk and the rest next month. I reckon she is the one to fear.

- TS

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Monday Musings: A Five and a Six Away from Ascot
• Monday Musings: A Ces for the Home Team
• Monday Musings: Daryz Makes it the Aga’s Arc
• Monday Musings: Dazzling Doubles
• Monday Musings: It’s Aidan Again!