Royal Ascot 2026: Day Four Preview, Trends, Tips

/in , , /by

On we go, to the fourth day of five at Royal Ascot but the final day of our full preview coverage. I hope we've managed to add some fun - and maybe a winner or two - to your week. There have been some fireworks already and perhaps, if it's not being greedy, we can add to the pyrotechnics one more time...

 

N.B. Don't forget to check out our full Royal Ascot Friday trends page here.

 

Friday Tix Competition

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The going for day four of Royal Ascot, Friday 19th June, is: Good to Firm.

GoingStick readings at 8.30am:
Stands’ side: 8.9
Centre: 8.9
Far side: 8.3
Round: 7.6

Stalls:
Straight Course: centre
Round Course: inside

Weather:
Dry overnight to Friday morning. It is forecast to be generally dry through the remainder of the week. Max temps expected to be between 26 and 28c through to Saturday.

Watering:
Watered 5mm on whole track overnight.

 

2.30 THE ALBANY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

6 of the last 7 winners had raced in the previous 30-34 day period and we have four fillies this year that fit the bill.

Two of the four finished 1st and 2nd in a Newmarket novice in the middle of May and it's the runner up that appeals the most due to her stable's previous notable record in the race. 

There were four maiden winners of this race between 2005 and 2011 with the last two being trained by the Channon yard who also won three of the first ten renewals of the Albany (the third of their three winners had been beaten under a length at the same Newmarket May meeting as the selection).

It was Andrew Balding's Jolivette that won that Newmarket race but fellow newcomer Topaz ran on really well to move into contention from the rear of the field as they entered the final furlong. She reeled in a number of challengers and kept on in eyecatching fashion without quite getting to Jolivette, who had got the first run on the field, and she had to settle for finishing a neck down at the line. Topaz entered a lot of notebooks for that run and she'll be winning races for a stable with previous pedigree with this type of filly.

She certainly doesn't deserve to be twice the price of the Newmarket winner and seems to offer a fair bit of value for a yard looking to reclaim former glories.

 

Suggestion: Try Topaz EW 25/1 (4 places)

 

 

 

Tix Pointers: All of the last 13 winners also won last time out; but plenty of big priced horses have made the frame. I'll be spreading out with last day winners.

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3.05 THE COMMONWEALTH CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

The newest Group 1 at the Royal meeting, the Commonwealth Cup has bridged a glaring gap for top class three-year-olds that either failed to stay the Guineas trip or were never intended to go that far.

Although fields are usually large, winners have tended to be lurking in the shallows: ten of the 11 winners to date were sent off 12/1 or shorter and in the top five (including joints) in the betting. Of course, lobbing a curveball, was last year's scorer, Time For Sandals at 25/1. She was a third filly to win the race from 45 starters; the fairer sex has a similar win rate but a better place rate and a much better PRB.

With 22 scheduled to go to post, it might be worth noting that the two longest priced winners were when the field size was 21+. Only the electric Campanelle was able to go gate to wire, eight of the 11 winners settling in the second half of the field through the early stages.

The best trials have been the Sandy Lane, the Carnarvon and the 2000 Guineas.

Venetian Sun won the Sandy Lane at Haydock last time having looked a non-stayer in the 1000 Guineas previously. As a juvenile she lowered Gstaad's colours in the G1 Prix Morny and is unbeaten at 6f or shorter. She'll be at peak fitness and was ultra-impressive last time out. The problem is that she's very short - 6/4 in a field of 22 for a Group 1.

Aidan O'Brien is naturally represented here, by the runner-up from the Carnarvon Stakes, Albert Einstein. He's not won above Group 3 level and there's no clear reason why he should reverse form on this more testing track with the re-opposing winner that day, Song Of The Clyde. Moreover, Aidan's record in the Commonwealth Cup is uncharacteristically average: just one win (Caravaggio) from 18 starters. He's had favourites sent off 5/6, 10/11, evens, 11/4 and 10/3 with only the aforementioned horse-named-after-a-painter getting it done, at 5/6. You don't need to be Einstein to figure that the Ballydoyle runner is a bit on the skinny side at 6/1.

Carnarvon winners are actually two from two in this, both Eqtidaar and Shaquille doubling up; that means Song Of The Clyde deserves at least a second squint. He was a rock solid juvenile, winning almost half a million quid courtesy of valuable sales races in which he won and ran second in fields of 21. He does tend to race prominently or on the lead and he'll need the far side rail to ride quicker than it has done in the early part of the week from his berth in 2, but he fits on form.

On the high side, Wesley Ward runs Outfielder, fourth (beaten 2.75L) in Venetian Sun's Morny and a winner of both starts Stateside this season. Fast turf is no issue to this dirt bred US speedster - he has two wins on firm over there - but a straight six with an uphill finish might be tough to sustain for a horse that wears his heart on his sleeve out front. Still, he'll likely offer a bold sight for backers and was still hanging tough with a furlong to go in the one mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last autumn (he really should have run in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, as I wrote at the time!).

Also high is the second Aidan arrow, Charles Darwin: Ballydoyle have really sent their top scientists to this one. Darwin was drawn similarly high when winning the five furlong Norfolk at this meeting last year and added a verdict over the extra furlong on debut in 2026. He clunked in a G3 last time, Ryan reporting he thought the horse had lost its action, and Wayne Lordan takes over now. Lordan has won five Group 1's since the beginning of last season, including both the Newmarket and Irish 1000 Guineas this spring. This son of No Nay Never was unbeaten in four prior to that last day glitch and gets first time blinkers here; he's a certain forward goer which, as mentioned, may not be a positive.

There is actually a ton of pace drawn high. As well as Outfielder and Charles Darwin, Rock On Thunder (drawn 22) and Fitzella (16) are also habitual trailblazers, as to a slightly lesser degree Brussels (18), the third APO'B runner. That might mean they go too hard stands side; but, if they don't, the likeliest to pick up the pieces are Venetian Sun (13) and Wise Approach (15).

The last named is a bit of a forgotten man in this. He was less than a length behind Venetian Sun in the Morny before winning the Group 1 Middle Park over 6f.  True, he's underwhelmed twice in the spring, when beaten about three lengths in each of the Pavilion Stakes (a trial for this) and the Carnarvon; but what if those were sighters for his primary target, the Commonwealth Cup? An alternative theory is that he hasn't trained on - and that holds some water at this stage - but his price is playable and he figures to get a pace setup most likely.

Coppull won the Pavilion last time, and as a two-year-old was a close third to Wise Approach in the Middle Park and a slightly more distant third behind Gstaad in the Coventry. He has two solid bits of track and trip form, then, and is genuine Group 1 class. Stall 14 sandwiches him between Venetian Sun and Wise Approach.

If high numbers have had the best of it so far this week (Tue/Wed as I write this Thursday morning), the stall positions of CC winners gives pause for thought. To wit, last year stall 1 of 21, then 1 of 14, 3 of 13, 1 of 20, 11 of 15, 10 of 16, 4 of 9, and 3 of 22. Hmm. But let's take a breath and consider the evidence more broadly.

 

 

The chart above is PRB3 (the average percentage of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours) by actual draw position (accounting for non-runners). This is a really good way of smoothing the curve and getting under the skin of seemingly counter-intuitive draw bias numbers. What it shows is that low draws have performed pretty well, especially very low; but so, too, have very high numbers: it appears that being close to either rail is an advantage. That makes a lot more sense even if it doesn't especially help us find the winner, not obviously at any rate.

What we can say is that those drawn in the middle have tended to struggle, which brings in Wise Approach and Venetian Sun. Good grief, help!

There's one more I want to highlight. Drawn 3 is Division, a Wathnan Racing-owned son of Kingman who has probably been screaming for a setup like this. He won a 13-runner Listed race at York over six last October and then, in two spins this term, ran an eyecatching closing third in the Pavilion (course and distance) and then got closest to Venetian Sun in the Sandy Lane at Haydock. He is a closer and, while most of the pace is high, the low numbers have Song Of The Clyde (2), Zanthos (1) and Havana Anna (7). They look sure to carry Division into the mix on his side, from where it's a case of whether they're in front or behind the other lot - assuming there's a, erm, division in the field.

Suggestion: It's a really tricky race if you, like me, want to oppose the 'obvious' filly in the field, Venetian Sun. She might very well win but I can't be taking 6/4. Instead I'm going make two small each way plays, on Wise Approach and Division. If low is again the place to be - or at least not the place not to be (eh?) - 12/1 Division should be bang there. Wise Approach, also 12/1, does require a touch more imagination, but if you like VS from 13 you can't mind WA from 15; he obviously needs to step up on his 2026 level thus far.

 

Tix Pointers: It's not been a crazy race from a placepot perspective. That said, last year was 25/1, 28/1, 20/1, with the first two home drawn 1 and 20 in a field of 21. I'm definitely going deeper than the favourite on my A tickets.

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

3.40 THE DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Sam Darby 

This will be my strongest fancy of the week in what is traditionally my favourite race of the meeting - hopefully we’re rewarded. I tend to only bet in the handicaps, and the straight course races are obviously highly unpredictable, not just because of the number of runners but also because the draw bias can be difficult to get right.

There is a clear draw bias over 12f though, and that doesn’t change from race to race or meeting to meeting fortunately.





Even a quick glance at the above shows a strong draw bias towards the higher numbers and, particularly, away from the low numbers.

In terms of PRB3, even the worst of the double figure stalls is pretty much better than any single figure stall and the best single figure stalls come out as 8 and 9.

It’s not impossible to defy a lower draw, of course - the last three winners of this race have come from single figures (7, 4 and 9). However, the previous seven winners came from 19, 19, 14,12, 12, 19 and 18. 

Before I delve into the pace map and form, the other thing worth flagging is the role the draw plays in any pace bias. To defy a lower draw, you generally need to be prominent. That makes perfect sense given the patiently ridden horses from low stalls will often meet significant trouble in running in such large fields.

The sweet spot appears to be a middle to high draw, with a prominent or mid division racing style. The pace map below is sorted high draws at the top to low draws at the bottom.



There look to be three potential front runners in this, all drawn middle to high. I’m not convinced they’ll go massively hard, but it does look likely to be run at an even gallop at least, and should be a pretty fair race on that score.

I’ll cut straight to the chase. The horse I really like for this is HOPEWELL ROCK.

For those of you who have read other previews and articles I’ve written, you’ll probably know that hot form plays a huge part in my selection process. I already liked Hopewell Rock for this at the five day stage, but he was given an almighty form boost in the final race on day one of this meeting.

On seasonal debut at Newmarket, in a steadily run contest, Hopewell Rock did well to finish 3rd (beaten just 1.75 lengths) after being held up out the back. The first two home were Daiquiri Bay and Gamrai, who held the first two positions throughout. That pair then finished 1st and 2nd again in the Copper Horse Stakes on Tuesday.

Opportunity was the ante post favourite for this but I already thought he might be vulnerable having gone up 8lbs for winning what looked a fairly weak race last time, albeit winning it very well. He’s now been handed stall 1, which has a dreadful record in these races, and I’d be very confident in opposing this horse.

Warrant Holder fared much better with the draw (17) and he’s sure to be popular given his profile. It’s worth noting though that he was 5.5 lengths behind Hopewell Rock at Leicester in October and is now 11lbs worse off with that rival. That’s not to say he can’t reverse the form eight months later - a lot of water has passed under the bridge since - but Warrant Holder’s subsequent exploits are another form boost for the selection.

That horse is probably the main danger to Hopewell Rock, whilst at bigger prices, I could see Plage De Havre running into the places. He looks held by the handicapper, but his Old Newton Cup demolition job last year worked out extremely well, and being 10lbs higher for winning that race by four lengths makes him vulnerable to less exposed rivals without ruling him out.

It will be interesting to see what race position Hopewell Rock can get early. I’d have definitely preferred a higher draw to guarantee a wider trip. From stall 8, I still worry that James McDonald won’t have done his homework and he’ll switch him inside and have him out the back. He will have a massive chance of riding the winner if he can keep wider and slot in around mid division, before challenging down the outside in the straight.

If you can get 5/1+, I think he’s still okay as an each way bet.

Suggestion: Back Hopewell Rock e/w at 5/1+

 

Tix Pointers: High draws are fine here, and horses patiently ridden and lucky in the run are those on which to focus. Obviously we won't know which are which on either count until after the race - annoying!

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

4.20 THE CORONATION STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

If the St James's Palace Stakes on Tuesday is a confluence of the European 2000 Guineas form, then the Coronation Stakes is the 1000 Guineas' equivalent. Sadly, with no French entry this year it looks a straight match between the winners at Newmarket and the Curragh, both trained by that man Aidan.

At Newmarket, Precise was favoured and ridden by Ryan Moore but True Love won, ridden by Wayne Lordan. Precise, racing on the other side of the track, was beaten five lengths by a winner that was a neck shy of two lengths better than anything else in the race.

If we thought we had our miling queen crowned, the Curragh was a reset of pre-Newmarket thinking. This time, True Love was favoured and ridden by Moore, but Precise re-asserted her primacy in the hands of Wayne Lordan. Precise 1 True Love 1, but Wayne 2 Ryan 0. How frustrating it must be for a jockey in such a position.

Precise is likely to be waited with, as is her wont, and in a smallish field that ought not to be an issue; she looks good to go 2-1 ahead on her fellow Classic-winning stablemate, and 4/6 might not be an uncharitable offer from the layers either, if odds on is your thing.

If there's one thing that tempers enthusiasm, it's O'Brien's relatively poor record in the Coronation Stakes. Since 2009, he's saddled 24 fillies and won just twice, with Lillie Langtry in 2010 and Winter in 2017. Hermosa was beaten at evens, Found at 13/8, Homecoming Queen at 9/4, Opera Singer at 10/3 and Meditate and Together, both 7/2. Food for thought, at least.

I got the impression that Newmarket may have taken plenty out of True Love, who was clearly riper that day, when she ran fairly flat at the Curragh - albeit still grabbing the silver medal. As such, I'd be more wary of her this time. Depending on whether I'm right or wrong on that, there are one or two each way places to play for so let's go deeper into the field.

Touleen raced on the same (wrong) side as Precise in the 1000 Guineas, and finished half a length in front of that one though no match for Evolutionist (a noted absentee here) who 'won' that far side race. She'd previously run a lovely race in defeat in the Fred Darling, closing for second over the inadequate seven furlongs at Newbury. Owen Burrows is a trainer I respect more than most and he's eminently capable with a decent Shadwell horse (think Hukum, Alflaila, Minzaal, Anmaat). There's a feeling this filly has a bit more to come and, though there needs to be on the balance of respective form, she's a definite place player at least.

We haven't seen Balantina since last season, which didn't stop Inspiral in 2022; but that filly was unbeaten whereas this one brings solid but not outstanding claims to the party. Her trainer, Donnacha O'Brien, won this two years ago with Porta Fortuna but she arrived with a neck second in the 1000 Guineas under her belt. There are enough reasons to discount her this time though I'll be very interested to see how she runs with a view to the second half of the campaign.

Fourth at the Curragh was Black Caviar Gold, and she gets a first time visor here. Trainer Paddy Twomey has reached for the visor five times in the past two years, saddling a winner and two seconds from that quintet. They were all very well fancied, however, so that doesn't really tell us anything! This filly doesn't look good enough, in truth.

Similar comments apply to each of Timeforshowcasing, Moon Target and Rose Ghaiyyath, but Sukanya may not be completely without hope. She won the Fred Darling, beating Touleen, before running no sort of a race in the Irish 1000. She got a bump at the start there and was lit up and keen as a result; as such, she was entitled to guzzle her gas before the race was over. It wouldn't be the biggest shock if she made the frame.

Suggestion: This is not a deep renewal and 4/6 PRECISE probably wins. The obvious alternative, True Love from the same stable, looks opposable I think, making 9/1 Touleen reasonable each way value. Hail Mary players might consider a ha'penny each way on 40/1 Sukanya in case her Curragh spin was a chuck out.

 

Tix Pointers: The favourite or second favourite has placed in 12 of the last 13 years. Favourite banker?

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

5.00 THE SANDRINGHAM STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

A 3yo fillies handicap over the straight mile to finish my week’s work. I’ll start by taking a look at the 15-year trends, which see four strong pointers.

Market Rank

Six wins for the SP favourites (seven for the BSP fav) so, despite having big fields generally (11 of the races with 20+ runners), the market has proved a good guide as far as market leaders are concerned.

Price LTO

Related, 14 of the last 15 winners returned an SP of 17/2 or less LTO. A further 31 were placed. Horses priced 9/1 or bigger LTO have won just once from 123 runners (10 placed).

Weight Rank

Seven of the last 15 winners have come from the top four in the weights (inc. joint 4th). This equates to 47% of the winners from just under 20% of the total runners. Also, a further 14 were placed.

Position LTO

Eight of the last 15 winners won LTO. This equates to 53% of the winners from just 28% of the total runners.

 

We have a few angles for those who follow long term race trends, then.

Looking at the draw now, and last year the first three horses were drawn 2, 6 and 1, whereas in 2023 the first seven home were drawn middle to high. This race has not been that easy to predict draw wise, unlike some of the other straight course races that have tended to show a more reliable and consistent bias. However, I personally will take high to middle over low unless the ground comes up soft, which given the forecast seems very unlikely.

Moving onto run style / pace, 10 of the last 11 winners, and 36 of 44 win & placed runners, were either held up or raced no closer than midfield early. This seems to be a race where waiting tactics are the order of the day. Here is the pace map this time around:

 

 

 

All the early pace looks to be in the high numbers here so a middle to high draw could be the place to be.

 

Here are some of the leading contenders...

Seet – trained by the Gosdens who won this race in 2023 with Coppice. Is a very good trends fit and seems to have the right pace profile albeit having had just three career runs (six of the last 18 winners had just the three runs). Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking and, since 2008, the Moore/Gosden combo has secured 40 wins from 149 rides hitting close to a 27%-win rate, and this year they are currently seven from 12. Drawn 20 looks decent based on the pace map.

Glyfada – not seen on a racecourse as a 2yo but has had two wins and a second from three starts this year. Irish raiders have been successful a couple of times in the last 15 years. Oisin Murphy takes the ride which looks a positive. Drawn 31 which I am thinking might be a good one.

Symbol of Majesty – another from the Gosden yard. Was beaten favourite last time at Wolverhampton when getting poorly positioned from off the pace. Will need to bounce back. Drawn 21.

Darn Hot Gallop – Out of her depth in the 1000 Guineas but previously was three from three at a lower level. If the stable really thought the horse had the potential to be competitive at Group 1 level, then she must have a chance here.

Rosa Inglesa – Charlie Fellows bagged this race in consecutive years in 2019 and 2020 and runs Rosa Inglesa this time. Last time out was a comfortable winner at Nottingham and has been raised 9lb for that success. That doesn’t look too harsh to me. Drawn 19.

 

Suggestion: Famous last words but I want to be drawn middle to high here and hence my three favoured horses are Seet (drawn 20), Rosa Inglesa (drawn 19) and Glyfada (drawn 31). I’m going to suggest 5/1 Seet to win and 9/1 Glyfada each way.

 

Tix Pointers: A race where staying close to the top of the market has served very well. And a patient ride (midfield or held up) has got 11 of the last 13 winners.

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

5.35 THE KING EDWARD VII STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Rory Delargy

Traditionally known as the ‘Ascot Derby’ the King Edward VII is rarely a target for those who have gone to Epsom due to its proximity, and it no longer enjoys the status it once enjoyed for all it still retains Group 2 status. Derby flop Ancient Egypt bids to get his career back on track but while I’d excuse his Epsom run on account of the soft ground, it almost always pays to pass over those who come here via Epsom, and he may have to wait for another day.

The race appears to be a clash between Gallinule Stakes winner Causeway and the Kempton novice winner Water Into Wine and the argument is whether the former can utilise his experience against a horse who had little more than an exercise gallop against vastly inferior rivals last time.

Causeway is a typical Coolmore product, being a son of Wootton Bassett out of a beautifully bred daughter of Galileo. His profile suggests that the trip could be an issue as he raced at a mile or shorter on his first four runs, but there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and Coolmore have been breeding Galileo to speedily bred mares to produce middle-distance stars for long enough to know how the magic happens.

Causeway stepped up to ten furlongs in the Gallinule, a Group 3 that has thrown out champions like Ardross and Assert in bygone days, but only Leading Light has gone on to much greater things of recent winners and Causeway beat only a useful bunch to score at the Curragh. That said, he did score in the style of an improving colt, repelling the challenge of Zia Zabel with more in hand than a head would suggest. On the evidence of the run, he will stay this longer trip and looks a solid contender.

Water Into Wine has won a maiden and a novice in two starts, both over 1m3f, and has yet to be extended. The question with him is working out how much substance there is beneath the obvious style, and whether it’s enough to justify favouritism here. First of all, I’ll admit he didn’t beat anything of merit at Kempton last time when cruising to an 11-length win; but his victory on debut at Newbury is a better effort to judge him on, and he was less experienced than the colt he slammed into second that day. That colt, Richard Hannon’s Alderman, went on to Epsom on the back of that second-place effort and finished a highly creditable fifth to Christmas Day in the Derby, beating the likes of Pierre Bonnard, Ancient Egypt and Item by upwards of 2¾ lengths. That might flatter him a little but Water Into Wine made him look slow at Newbury and the winner is entitled to take another step forward given he’s yet to be fully tested.

Some are wary of the switch from all-weather to turf for big races, but Newbury proves he’s effective on firmish ground and I’m inclined to take a very positive view of his form, with his campaign reminiscent of the way Lucarno was campaigned for the same connections before winning the St Leger. I think John Gosden has been quite clever to come here rather than the Queen’s Vase as he was likely to find a smaller field, which will help to offset his inexperience. Causeway will be by far his toughest opponent and will not lie down, but I expect Water To Wine won’t need a miracle to maintain his unbeaten record.

 

Suggestion: 1pt Exacta Water To Wine/Causeway

 

Tix Pointers: Only the Covid edition messed things up for jollies on the placepot ticket. As the last leg, it might be one in which to bank and lay the favourite for a place on the exchange?

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

6.10 THE PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by David Massey

There’s a fair spread of pace across the course here, although I’d be surprised if anything led up the speedball that is Revival Power from the low numbers. I’m a massive fan of hers, she did me a few good turns last year but it is worth remembering she did get herself a bit stewed up before the Queen Mary last year and her effort fizzled out as a result. If she can keep a lid on things this time around then obviously her chance would increase, but I suspect there are other targets for her in the second half of the season and it’ll probably be a watching brief.

Only two horses with single-figure draws have hit the frame in this in the last five years; compare that to nine drawn 20 or above that have delivered an each-way return (and that includes three winners) and it probably pays to stick with those drawn high. With that, I think Starmade, from stall 30, makes plenty of interest.

So far Starmade has won twice on the all-weather, successful over 6f at Newcastle last time out (third a winner since) and whilst his three turf efforts don’t match that form, he’s only raced on ground described by Timeform as either soft or good to soft. There must be a chance he is going to improve for quicker conditions here, and the way he travels strongly towards the midfield/rear in his races is probably the right sort of runstyle required to win this. I see some 25s around as I type; 20s and bigger looks perfectly fair.

Dickensian, second in the Windsor Castle last year, is more obvious but is worth pointing out all the same. Last year, he was showing a lot of speed in his races and not always seeing them out, so it was interesting to see new tactics employed on his reappearance at York last month, Shane Gray dropping him out and allowing a fast pace to come back to him at the finish. He showed plenty of tenacity to poke his head in front late on, and that form looks strong; the second home, Simplify, is an improver, and third home Aspect Island lost nothing in defeat when finishing midfield in the King Charles III Stakes here on Tuesday. There should be more to come from him now he’s shown himself tactically versatile.

To complete the shortlist, there's nothing wrong with the claims of James Owen's Cherry Baker. Her profile is probably a bit less sexy than a few, but she's nicely drawn, has the right hold-up run style, and it's a case of whether a drop to five furlongs is going to suit. It might, as for all she's been tried over seven furlongs and a mile, her best form has come over six, her record at that trip reading 112; she comes here in cracking form after two good efforts at Chester. It's not hard to see her finishing off well, and she's one you should at least have in all your exotics here.

Suggestion: Try Starmade e/w at 25/1 or bigger, or Dickensian at 12/1

*

That's it from us for Royal Ascot week. As always, we invite you to go solo on Saturday, and wish you all the best of luck. Thank you very much to my fantastic support (Dave Renham, Sam Darby, Gavin Priestley, David Massey and Rory Delargy) and, mostly, thank you very much to you for following along with us. I hope you've been lucky.

Enjoy the rest of the sport!

Matt

2026 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Three (Thurs 18th June)

/in , /by

More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2026 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 16th to Sat 20th June 2026) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day three on Thursday 18th June 2026.

Royal Ascot Trends Day Three – Thursday 18th June 2026

2.30 - Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f ITV

Chesham Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Humidity (4/1)
2024 – Bedtime Story (11/8 fav)
2023 – Snellen (12/1)
2022 – Holloway Boy (40/1)
2021 – Point Lonsdale (10/11 fav)
2020 – Battleground (11/4 fav)
2019 – Pinatubo (3/1)
2018 – Arthur Kitt (13/2)
2017 – September (11/8 fav)
2016 – Churchill (8/11 fav)
2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)
2005 – Championship Point (4/1)
2004 – Whazzat (7/1)
2003 – Pearl Of Love (11/10 fav)

Chesham Stakes Key Trends

22/23 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
20/23 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
19/23 – Had just 1 previous career run
19/23 – Were foaled in March or earlier
17/23 – Ran over 6f last time out (11 won)
16/23 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Won their previous race
8/23 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/23 – Irish trained-winners (Aidan O’Brien, 5 of the last 10 winners)
2/23 – Trained by the Johnston yard
2/23 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021 & 2024
17 of the last 20 winners came between stalls 1-8
7 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (4)
15 of the last 20 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
The Cole yard have won the race 4 times before

3.05 - King George V Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m4f ITV

King George V Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Merchant (3/1 fav)
2024 – Going The Distance (9/1)
2023 – Desert Hero (18/1)
2022 – Secret State (4/1 jfav)
2021 – Surefire (5/1)
2020 – Hukum (12/1)
2019 – South Pacific (22/1)
2018 – Baghdad (9/1)
2017 – Atty Persse (7/1)
2016 - Primitivo (13/2)
2015 – Space Age (9/1)
2014 – Elite Army (4/1 jfav)
2013 – Elidor (20/1)
2012 – Fennell Bay (12/1)
2011 – Brown Panther (4/1 jfav)
2010 – Dandino (7/1)
2009 – Cosmic Sun (66/1)
2008 – Colony (11/2 fav)
2007 – Heron Bay (20/1)
2006 – Linas Selection (9/2)
2005 – Munsef (14/1)
2004 – Admiral (9/1)
2003 – Fantastic Love (10/1)

King George V Stakes Trends

22/23 – Never raced at Ascot before
21/23 – Had at least 2 previous runs that same season
21/23 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
21/23 – Placed last time out
17/23 – Carried 8-13 or less
16/23 – Had won over at least 1m2f previously
13/23 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
13/23 – Won their previous race
12/23 – Favourites placed
4/23 – Won by the Johnston camp (4)
4/23 – Ran at Haydock last time out
5/23 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/23 – Godolphin-owned (Charlie Appleby has trained 2 of the last 11)
13 of the last 20 winners came between stalls 10-20 (inc)
8 of the last 20 winners came between stalls 10-16 (inc)
Ralph Beckett has trained 2 of the last 6 winners
Charlie Appleby has trained 2 of the last 12 winners
William Buick has ridden 2 of the last 12 winners

3.40 - Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f ITV

Ribblesdale Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Garden Of Eden (7/1)
2024 – Port Fairy (12/1)
2023 – Warm Heart (13/2)
2022 – Magical Lagoon (11/4)
2021 – Loving Dream (18/1)
2020 – Frankly Darling (11/8 fav)
2019 – Star Catcher (4/1)
2018 – Magic Wand (10/3)
2017 – Coronet (9/1)
2016 – Even Song (15/8 fav)
2015 – Curvy (9/2)
2014 – Bracelet (10/1)
2013 – Riposte (9/2)
2012 – Princess Highway (17/2)
2011 – Banimpire (3/1 fav)
2010 – Hibaayeb (4/1 jfav)
2009 – Flying Cloud (5/1)
2008 – Michita (10/3 fav)
2007 – Silkwood (4/1)
2006 – Mont Etoile (25/1)
2005 – Thakafaat (22/1)
2004 – Punctilious (9/2)
2003 – Spanish Sun (9/2)

Ribblesdale Stakes Trends

20/23 – Had never raced at Ascot before
19/23 – Had at least 2 previous races that season
18/23 - Placed in their previous race
17/23 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
16/23 – Placed favourites
14/23 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/23 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
10/23 – Irish-trained winners (9 of last 14)
9/23 – Won their last race
5/23 – Winning favourites
6/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 of last 12)
6/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/23 - Trained by John Gosden (5 wins in total)
3/23 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (5 in total)
3/23 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
Just two winners from stall 1 in the last 19 runnings
10 of the last 19 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)

4.20 - Ascot Gold Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

Recent Ascot Gold Cup Winners

2025 – Trawlerman (85/40 fav)
2024 – Kyprios (11/10 fav)
2023 – Courage Mon Ami (15/2)
2022 – Kyprios (13/8 fav)
2021 – Subjectivist (13/2)
2020 – Stradivarius (4/5 fav)
2019 – Stradivarius (Evs fav)
2018 – Stradivarius (7/4 jfav)
2017 – Big Orange (5/1)
2016 – Order Of St George (10/11 fav)
2015 – Trip To Paris (12/1)
2014 – Leading Light (10/11 fav)
2013 – Estimate (7/2 fav)
2012 – Colour Vision (6/1)
2011 – Fame And Glory (11/8 fav)
2010 – Rite of Passage (20/1)
2009 – Yeats (6/4 fav)
2008 – Yeats (11/8 fav)
2007 – Yeats (8/13 fav)
2006 – Yeats (7/1)
2005 – Westerner (7/4 fav)
2004 – Papineau (5/1)
2003 – Mr Dinos (3/1)
2002 – Royal Rebel (16/1)

Ascot Gold Cup Trends

22/24 – Had no more than 2 previous runs that season
21/24 – Aged 6 or younger
21/24 – Had between 1-2 previous runs that season
19/24 – Had won over at least 2 miles on the flat before
19/24 – Favourites that were placed
19/24 – Won their last race
15/24 – Previous Group 1 winners
14/24 – Won by the favourite
11/24 – Aged 4 years-old (9 of the last 14)
10/24 – Irish-trained winners
9/24 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
6/24 – Ran at Sandown last time out (Henry II Stakes)
4/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (4 of the last 13)
17 of the last 20 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13 of the last 20 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc) (7 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 7 or lower)
Godolphin won the race in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2012 & 2025
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner in 2024, 2022, 2016, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006
John Gosden has trained the winner in 2018, 2019, 2020 & 2025
Since 1949 there have been 16 multiple winners of the race
Since 1930 only 4 winners aged 7+ (Trawlerman, Yeats x 2, Drum Taps)
France have won 15 Gold Cups (last Westerner)

5.00 - Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m ITV

Britannia Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Arabian Story (15/2)
2024 – Mickley (15/2)
2023 – Docklands (6/1 fav)
2022 – Thesis (14/1)
2021 – Perotto (18/1)
2020 – Khaloosy (9/2)
2019 – Biometric (28/1)
2018 – Ostillo (10/1)
2017 – Bless Him (25/1)
2016 – Defrocked (13/2)
2015 – War Envoy (10/1)
2014 – Born In China (14/1)
2013 – Beauty Flame (20/1)
2012 – Fast Or Free (6/1 fav)
2011 – Sagramor (8/1)
2010 – Ransom Note (9/1)
2009 – Fareer (20/1)
2008 – Fifteen Love (28/1)
2007 – Eddie Jock (33/1)
2006 – Sir Gerard (9/2 fav)
2005 – Mostashaar (10/3 fav)
2004 – Mandobi (8/1)
2003 – New Seeker (16/1)

Britannia Stakes Trends

21/23 – Had no more than 3 previous runs that season
19/23 – Had won a race over 7f or 1m before
19/23 – Placed last time out
15/23 – Carried 8-13 or less
15/23 – Had never run at Ascot before
14/23 – Failed to win their previous race
13/23 – Returned a double-figure price
13/23 – Unplaced favourites
9/23 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
9/23 – Had only won over 7f previously
4/23 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
4/23 – Winning favourites
3/23 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Just one top three finish horse from stall 1 in the last 20 runnings
16 of the last 20 winners came from a double-figure stall (2 of the last 6 winners from stall 19)
In 2025 the first 5 horses from stalls 27+
The first 10 home in 2024 were all from a double-figure stall
Aidan O’Brien has only trained 1 winner (War Envoy, 2015)
8 of the last 11 winners drawn between stalls 10-19
Trainer John Gosden has won the race 4 times (last 2001)

5.35 - Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f ITV

Hampton Court Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Trinity College (5/2 fav)
2024 – Jayrebe (7/1)
2023 – Waipiro (7/1)
2022 - Claymore (7/1)
2021 – Mohaafeth (11/8 fav)
2020 – Russian Emperor (10/3)
2019 – Sangarius (13/2)
2018 – Hunting Horn (5/1)
2017 – Benbatl (9/2)
2016 – Hawkbill (11/2)
2015 – Time Test (15/8 fav)
2014 – Cannock Chase (7/4 fav)
2013 – Remote (9/4 fav)
2012 – Energizer (15/2)
2011 – Pisco Sour (20/1)
2010 – Afsare (9/4 fav)
2009 – Glass Harmonium (8/1)
2008 – Collection (13/2)
2007 – Zaham (7/2 fav)
2006 – Snoqualmie Boy (33/1)
2005 – Indigo Cat (3/1 fav)
2004 – Moscow Ballet (8/1)
2003 – Persian Majesty (8/1)

Hampton Court Stakes Trends

22/23 – Had not raced at Ascot before
20/23 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
20/23 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/23 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
12/23 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/23 – Had won over 1m2f before
9/23 – Unplaced favourites
8/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 - Ran at Epsom last time out
5/23 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
5/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
No winner from stall 1 in the last 20 runnings
16 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
12 of the last 19 winners came from stall 5-9 (inc)

6.10 - Buckingham Palace Handicap (3yo+) 7f ITV4

Buckingham Palace Handicap Trends

10/11 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
10/11 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Had won over at least 6f before
9/11 – Returned 12/1 or bigger in the betting
9/11 – Unplaced favourites
9/11 – Had run at Ascot before
9/11 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
8/11 – Rated between 92-99
7/11 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
6/11 – Had 5+ wins before
5/11 – Bred in Ireland
2/11 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of the last 6)
2/11 – Came from stall 29
2/11 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
The last 6 winners were aged 4
Since 2002 only 2 winners aged 7+
7 of the last 8 winners from stalls 24+
2025: Never So Brave (4/1 fav), Andrew Balding, Oisin Murphy

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2026 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Four (Fri 19th June)

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More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2026 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 16th to Sat 20 June 2026) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day four on Friday 19th June 2026.

Royal Ascot Trends Day Four – Friday 19th June 2026

2.30 - Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f ITV

Albany Stakes Past Winners

2025 – Venetian Sun (7/1)
2024 – Fairy Godmother (15/8 fav)
2023 – Porta Fortuna (5/1)
2022 – Meditate (5/2)
2021 – Sandrine (16/1)
2020 – Dandalla (13/2)
2019 – Daahyeh (4/1 fav)
2018 – Main Edition (7/1)
2017 – Different League (20/1)
2016 – Brave Anna (16/1)
2015 – Illuminate (4/1 fav)
2014 – Cursory Glance (14/1)
2013 – Kiyoshi (8/1)
2012 – Newfangled (7/4 fav)
2011 – Samitar (16/1)
2010 – Memory (15/2)
2009 – Habaayib (16/1)
2008 – Cuis Ghaire (8/11 fav)
2007 – Nijoom Dubai (50/1)
2006 - Sander Camillo (4/1 fav)
2005 – La Chunga (10/1)
2004 – Jewel In The Sand (10/1)
2003 – Silca’s Gift (5/1)

Albany Stakes Key Trends

24/24 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs
24/24 – Never raced at Ascot before
23/24 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
20/24 – Won their previous race
18/24 – Won by either a Feb or Mar foal
16/24 – Placed favourites
12/24 – Previous winner over 6f
10/24 – Returned a double-figure price
7/24 – Winning favourites
5/24 – Won by trainers Channon (2) or Hannon (3)
3/24 – Ran at Sandown last time
2/24 – Trained by Karl Burke (2 of the last 6)
2/24 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of the last 12)
Jockey Jamie Spencer has won the race 4 times
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times (2 of the last 4)
Jockey Ryan Moore has won the race 3 times (2 of the last 4)
16 of the last 22 winners came from double-figure stalls
12 of the last 21 winners came from stalls 11-15 (inc)

 

3.05 - Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo) 6f ITV

Commonwealth Cup Recent Winners

2025 – Time For Sandals (25/1)
2024 – Inisherin (9/4 fav)
2023 – Shaquille (9/1)
2022 – Perfect Power (7/2 jfav)
2021 – Campanelle (5/1)
2020 – Golden Horde (5/1)
2019 – Advertise (8/1)
2018 - Eqtidaar (12/1)
2017 - Caravaggio (5/6 fav)
2016 - Quiet Reflection (7/4 fav)
2015 - Muhaarar (10/1)

Commonwealth Cup Trends

11/11 – Won over 6f before
9/11 – Drawn 8 or lower
8/11 – Had run at Ascot before
7/11 – Won 3+ times before
7/11 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
4/11 – Rated 117 or higher
4/11 – Winning favourite
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Won by a filly (Quiet Reflection, Campanelle, Time For Sandals)
2/11 – Came from stall 8
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race once (Caravaggio, 2017)

3.40 - Duke of Edinburgh Stakes Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV

Duke of Edinburgh Past Winners

2025 – Ethical Diamond (3/1 fav)
2024 – Crystal Black (11/1)
2023 – Okita Soushi (9/1)
2022 – Candleford (11/2)
2021 – Quickthorn (7/2 fav)
2020 – Scarlet Dragon (33/1)
2019 – Baghdad (7/2 fav)
2018 – Dash Of Spice (7/2 fav)
2017 – Rare Rhythm (20/1)
2016 – Kinema (8/1)
2015 – Arab Dawn (6/1 jfav)
2014 – Arab Spring (11/4 fav)
2013 – Opinion (8/1)
2012 – Camborne (11/2 fav)
2011 – Fox Hunt (12/1)
2010 – Cill Rialaig (16/1)
2009 – Drill Sergeant (14/1)
2008 – Sugar Ray (8/1)
2007 – Pevensey (8/1)
2006 – Young Mick (28/1)
2005 – Notable Guest (4/1)
2004 – Wunderwood (15/2)
2003 – Waverley (14/1)

Duke of Edinburgh Key Trends

21/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
21/23 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
21/23 – Had at least 2 previous career wins to their name
19/23 – Carried 9-0 or more
16/23 – Placed last time out
15/23 – Had won over 1m4f before
15/23 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
12/23 – Had run at Ascot before
9/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/23 – Trained by Hughie Morrison (4) or the Johnston (3) yard
7/23 – Ran at either York or Epsom last time (inc 7 of last 13 winners)
7/23 – Unplaced favourites
6/23 – Ran at Newmarket last time
6/23 – Winning favourites
16 of the last 21 winners came from a double-figure stall
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race

4.20 - Coronation Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m ITV

Coronation Stakes Past Winners

2025 – Cercene (33/1)
2024 – Porta Fortuna (7/2)
2023 – Tahiyra (8/13 fav)
2022 – Inspiral (15/8 fav)
2021 – Alcohol Free (11/2)
2020 – Alpine Star (9/2)
2019 – Watch Me (20/1)
2018 – Alpha Centauri (11/4 fav)
2017 – Winter (4/9 fav)
2016 – Qemah (6/1)
2015 – Ervedya (3/1)
2014 – Rizeena (11/2)
2013 – Sky Lantern (9/2 jfav)
2012 – Fallen For You (12/1)
2011 – Immortal Verse (8/1)
2010 – Lillie Langtry (7/2 fav)
2009 – Ghanaati (2/1 fav)
2008 – Lush Lashes (5/1)
2007 – Indian Ink (8/1)
2006 – Nannina (6/1 jfav)
2005 – Maids Causeway (9/2)
2004 – Attraction (6/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Rhythm (4/7 fav)
2002 – Sophisticat (11/2)

Coronation Stakes Recent Trends

23/24 – Had won over at least 7f before
21/24 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
18/24 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
18/24 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 previously
15/24 – Had won over at least a 1 mile before
11/24 – Ran in that season’s English 1,000 Guineas
10/24 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
9/24 – Had run at Ascot before (3 winners)
8/24 – Unplaced last time out
7/24 – Ran in that season’s Irish 1,000 Guineas
3/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/24 – Trained by John Gosden
2/24 – Trained by Jessica Harrington (2 of the last 8)
16 of the last 19 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
1 winner from stall 1 in the last 20 runnings
15 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
11 of the last 20 winners were non UK-trained – French (5), Irish (7)
The Aga Khan IV has won 2 of the last 11

5.00 - Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) 1m ITV

Sandringham Handicap Recent Winners

2025 – Never Let Go (22/1)
2024 – Soprano (14/1)
2023 – Coppice (6/1 jfav)
2022 – Heredia (7/2 fav)
2021 – Create Belief (6/1)
2020 – Onassis (33/1)
2019 – Thanks Be (33/1)
2018 – Agrotera (11/2 fav)
2017 – Con Te Partiro (20/1)
2016 – Persuasive (11/4 fav)
2015 – Osaila (13/2)
2014 – Muteela (9/2 fav)
2013 – Annecdote (11/1)
2012 – Duntle (4/1 fav)
2011 – Rhythm Of Light (8/1)
2010 – Timepiece (5/1)
2009 – Moneycantbuymelove (9/2 fav)
2008 – Festivale (10/1)
2007 – Barshiba (16/1)
2006 – Red Evie (5/1 co-fav)
2005 – Beautyandthebeast (9/2)
2004 – Celtic Heroine (11/1)
2003 – Hold To Ransom (11/1)
2002 – Tashawak (12/1)

Sandringham Handicap Trends

20/24 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
19/24 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
17/24 – Had never run at Ascot before
18/24 – Had won over at least 7f before
18/24 – Placed in their previous race
16/24 – Carried 8-10 or more
15/24 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
12/24 – Won their last race
11/24 – Returned a double-figure price
9/24 – Had exactly 3 runs already that season
8/24 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
4/24 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 11+
Charlie Fellowes has trained 2 of the last 7 winners
Richard Hannon has trained 2 of the last 11 winners
John Gosden has trained 2 of the last 10 winners
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race

5.35 - King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f ITV

King Edward VII Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Amiloc (11/8 fav)
2024 – Calandagan (11/2)
2023 – King Of Steel (11/10 fav)
2022 – Changingoftheguard (11/10 fav)
2021 – Alenquer (13/8 fav)
2020 – Pyledriver (18/1)
2019 – Japan (6/4 fav)
2018 – Old Persian (9/2)
2017 – Permian (6/1)
2016 – Across The Stars (7/1)
2015 – Balios (3/1)
2014 – Eagle Top (12/1)
2013 – Hillstar (15/2)
2012 – Thomas Chippendale (9/2)
2011 – Nathaniel (11/4 fav)
2010 – Monterosso (7/2)
2009 – Father Time (9/1)
2008 – Campanologist (9/1)
2007 – Boscobel (7/1)
2006 – Papal Bull (5/4 fav)
2005 – Plea Bargain (9/2)
2004 – Five Dynasties (11/4 fav)
2003 – High Accolade (5/2 fav)

King Edward VII Stakes Key Trends

22/23 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
21/23 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the
19/23 – Had never raced at Ascot before
17/23 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/23 – Placed favourites
15/23 - Had won at least 2 previous races during their career
14/23 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/23 – Had already won a Listed or better class race
9/23 – Winning favourites
3/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of the last 6)
3/23 – Trained by John Gosden
3/23 – Trained by the Johnston yard
1/23 – Only 1 French-trained winner
Just 1 winner from stall 1 in the last 21 runnings
13 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 4-9 (inc)
17 of the last 19 winners returned 9/1 or shorter

6.10 - Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap (3yo) 5f ITV4

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Carried 9-1 or less
6/6 – Drawn 11-25
1/6 – Winning favourites
Adrestia (10/1) won this race in 2025
Pilgrim (18/1) won this race in 2024
Rhythm N Hooves (12/1) won this race in 2023
Latin Lover (5/1) won this race in 2022
Trainer Simon & Ed Crisford won this race in 2025
Trainer David and Nicola Barron won this race in 2024
Trainer Harry Eustace won this race in 2022
Trainer Karl Burke won this race in 2021
Trainer Tim Easterby won this race in 2020

 

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2026 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Five (Sat 20th June)

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More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2026 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 16th to Sat 20th June 2026) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day five on Saturday 20th June 2026.

Royal Ascot Trends Day Five – Saturday 20th June 2026

2.30 - Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f ITV

Norfolk Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Charles Darwin (8/13 fav)
2024 – Shareholder (12/1)
2023 – Valiant Force (150/1)
2022 - The Ridler (50/1)
2021 – Perfect Power (14/1)
2020 – The Lir Jet (9/2)
2019 – A’Ali (5/1)
2018 – Shang Shang Shang (5/1)
2017 – Sioux Nation (14/1)
2016 – Prince Of Lir (8/1)
2015 – Waterloo Bridge (12/1)
2014 – Baitha Alga (8/1)
2013 – No Nay Never (4/1)
2012 – Reckless Abandon (4/1)
2011 – Bapak Chinta (6/1)
2010 – Approve (16/1)
2009 – Radiohead (10/1)
2008 – South Central (11/4 fav)
2007 – Winker Watson (2/1 fav)
2006 – Dutch Art (11/4)
2005 – Masta Plasta (7/2)
2004 – Blue Dakota (5/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Valour (4/1)

Norfolk Stakes Trends

23/23 – Had at least 1 previous run
21/23 – Previous winners over 5f
21/23 – Had never raced at Ascot before
19/23 – Had a RPR of 105+
18/23 – Won their previous race
16/23 – Foaled in March or April
13/23 – Favourites placed
12/23 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/23 – Returned a double-figure (or triple) price
4/23 – Winning favourites
3/23 – Ran at Windsor last time out
3/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/23 – Trained by Wesley Ward
9 of the last 10 winners drawn 10 or lower
Aidan O’Brien has trained 3 of the last 11 winners (4 in total)
Richard Fahey have won 2 of the last 5 runnings
11 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 7-12 (inc)
The Hannon yard have won the race 4 times

3.05 - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Rebel’s Romance (6/4 fav)
2024 – Isle Of Jura (16/1)
2023 – Pyledriver (7/2)
2022 – Broome (6/1)
2021 – Wonderful Tonight (5/1)
2020 – Fanny Logan (17/2)
2019 – Defoe (11/4 fav)
2018 – Crystal Ocean (4/7 fav)
2017 – Idaho (9/2)
2016 – Dartmouth (10/1)
2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)
2005 – Bandari (10/1)
2004 – Doyen (6/5 fav)
2003 – Indian Creek (14/1)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

23/23 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
22/23 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
20/23 – Placed last time out
20/23 – Had won over 1m4f before
16/23 – Had run at Ascot before
15/23 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
15/23 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
14/23 – Aged 4 years-old (inc 12 of last 15 winners)
12/23 – Placed favourites
12/23 – Won their previous race
8/23 – Winning favourites
7/23 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
6/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4) or Johnston yard (2)
6/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
16 of the last 20 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
14 of the last 20 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 20 runnings
Just one winner aged 7+ since 1923 (Rebel’s Romance, 2025)
9 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)

3.40 – QEII Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f ITV

QEII Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Naval Crown (33/1)
2024 – Khaadem (14/1)
2023 – Khaadem (80/1)
2022 – Naval Crown (33/1)
2021 – Dream Of Dreams (3/1 fav)
2020 – Hello Youmzain (4/1)
2019 – Blue Point (6/4 fav)
2018 – Merchant Navy (4/1)
2017 – The Tin Man (9/2)
2016 – Twilight Son (7/2)
2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)
2005 – Cape Of Good Hope (8/1)
2004 - Fayr Jag (12/1)
2003 – Choisir (13/2)

QEII Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

20/23 – Previous distance (6f) winners
20/23 – Previous Group Race winners
18/23 – Had run at Ascot before
17/23 – Aged 5 or younger
17/23 – Failed to win their last race
16/23 – Won by a UK-based yard
12/23 – Returned a double-figure price
11/23 – Unplaced favourites
6/23 – Ran in the King Charles III earlier at the meeting
5/23 – Winning favourite (joint)
2/23 – Trained by James Fanshawe
9 of the last 21 winners were Irish-bred
10 of the last 21 winners came from a low-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 21 runnings
10 of the last 21 winners returned a double-figure price
2 of the last 3 winners trained by Charles Hills
3 of the last 7 winners trained by Charlie Appleby
Ryan Moore has ridden 3 of the last 10
James Doyle has ridden 3 of the last 7

4.20 - Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f ITV

Recent Jersey Stakes Winners

2025 – Noble Champion (25/1)
2024 – Haatem (7/2)
2023 – Age Of Kings (22/1)
2022 – Noble Truth (4/1 fav)
2021 – Creative Force (5/1 jfav)
2020 – Molatham (11/2)
2019 – Space Traveller (25/1)
2018 – Expert Eye (8/1)
2017 – Le Brivido (2/1 fav)
2016 – Ribchester (7/1)
2015 – Dutch Connection (14/1)
2014 – Mustajeeb (9/2 jfav)
2013 – Gale Force Ten (9/2 fav)
2012 – Ishvana (20/1)
2011 – Strong Suit (11/1)
2010 – Rainfall (8/1)
2009 – Ouqba (12/1)
2008 – Aqlaam (13/2)
2007 – Tariq (15/2)
2006 – Jeremy (9/2)
2005 – Proclamation (7/1)
2004 – Kheleyf (6/1)
2003 – Membership (20/1)
2002 - Just James (20/1)

Jersey Stakes Trends

22/24 – Had at least 1 run already that season
20/24 – Had 4 or more career runs
15/24 – Had won over 7f before
14/24 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
12/24 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/24 – Had run at Ascot before
10/24 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
9/24 – Horses from stall 8 placed
9/24 – Unplaced favourites
9/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/24 – Won their previous race
5/24 – Winning favourites
3/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4 wins in total and 3 in the last 14)
2/23 – Trainer by Charlie Appleby (2 of the last 5 runnings)
The Irish have won 4 of the last 14 runnings
The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 5 of the last 18 runnings

5.00 - Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f ITV

Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Get It (28/1)
2024 – Unequal Love (12/1)
2023 – Saint Lawrence (22/1)
2022 – Rohaan (18/1)
2021 – Rohaan (8/1)
2020 – Hey Jonesy (18/1)
2019 – Cape Byron (7/2 fav)
2018 – Bacchus (33/1)
2017 – Out Do (25/1)
2016 – Outback Traveller (10/1)
2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)
2005 – Iffraaj (9/4 fav)
2004 – Lafi (6/1 fav)
2003 – Ratio (14/1) / Fayr Jag (10/1) (dead-heat)

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

26/26 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
24/26 – Had no more than 4 runs that season
24/26 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
23/26 – Had won a race over 6f before
22/26 – Finished sixth or better last time out
21/26 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
17/26 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
17/26 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
16/26 – Had run at Ascot before (9 had won here)
13/26 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
8/26 – Won their previous race
5/26 – Won by the favourite
13 of the last 20 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
11 of the last 20 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
15 of the last 20 winners came from a double-figure draw
14 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure stall
11 of the last 15 runnings - the top 2 finishers both came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 4 of the last 15 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 9 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 36 winners returning a double-figure price
The Cole yard has won the race 3 times

5.35 - Golden Gates Handicap (3yo) 1m2f ITV

Just the 6 previous runnings
Quai De Bethune (12/1) won this race in 2025
Hand Of God (9/4 fav) won this race in 2024
Burdett Road (20/1) won this race in 2023
Missed the Cut (5/2 fav) won this race in 2022
Foxes Tales (13/2) won this race in 2021
Highland Chief (20/1) won this race in 2020
Trainer Andrew Balding won this race in 2025
Trainer Harry Charlton won this race in 2024
Trainer George Boughey won this race in 2022
Trainer Andrew Balding won this race in 2021
Trainer Paul and Oliver Cole won this race in 2020
5 of the last 6 winners came between stalls 13-17 (inc)

6.10 - Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y ITV4

Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Sober (4/5 fav)
2024 – Uxmal (2/1 fav)
2023 – Dawn Rising (2/1 fav)
2022 – Stratum (10/1)
2021 – Stratum (4/1)
2020 – Who Dares Wins (Evs fav)
2019 – Cleonte (7/2)
2018 – Pallasator (11/2)
2017 – Oriental Fox (10/1)
2016 – Commissioned (12/1)
2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)
2005 – Cruzspiel (10/1)
2004 – Corrib Eclipse (25/1)
2003 – Cover Up (4/5 fav)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

18/23 – Finished unplaced last time out
15/23 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
13/23 – Had run at Ascot before
13/23 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
10/23 – Won by a NH yard
10/23 – Irish-trained winners
7/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (6 of last 16)
4/23 – Trained by Willie Mullins (5 of last 14)
2/23 – Trained by the Johnston yard (2 of last 11)
2/23 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 13)
2/23 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (2 of last 10)
2/23 – Trained by Joseph O’Brien (2 of the last 3)
15 of the last 20 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
13 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
12 of the last 19 winners came from a double-figure stall

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Royal Ascot 2026: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips

/in , , /by

It's Gold Cup day, or Ladies' Day - or even Thursday, or Day 3. The hump day of Royal Ascot features the showcase event, the Gold Cup, a Group 1 run over two and a half miles. There is, of course, a further trio of top class shermozzles either side of that blockbuster, so let's get to it...

 

Notes: you can also check out our full Royal Ascot Friday trends page here.

 

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Going: Good to Firm

Goingstick:
Stands side: 8.8
Centre: 8.7
Far side: 8.7
Round: 7.5

Soil Moisture: 41%, readings taken on Thursday at 8.30am.

Rails:
The rail on the round course is now at full width everywhere. Providing fresh ground today from 9f out to the Home straight

Stalls:
Straight Course: Centre

Round Course: Inside

 

2.30 THE CHESHAM STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

In a change to the running order, the Chesham appears as the first race of the Ladies' Day card, a trappy seven-furlong juvenile heat for Listed honours.

The Chesham cheat code appears to be thus: either a once-raced Aidan that got beat, or one of the top three unbeaten-in-one horses in the market. That would have got you nine of the last 11 winners, one of the other pair being the unbackable Holloway Boy on debut and the other the dual winner Pinatubo. Those winners included 12/1 Snellen and 14/1 Suits You.

Taking that approach aligns quite well with the market, the nominated APO'B runner Aix La Chapelle heading the field. He was easy enough to back when sent off 4/1 on his debut (7f, good to yielding) a fortnight ago, and had plenty to do a quarter mile from home. But the further they went the more inevitable was the son of Justify's victory, eventually pulling away by a widening length and a half. He made up a good five lengths in those final two furlongs and looks the obvious one to beat granted normal improvement.

Richard Hannon sends Aperoll with a similar profile to the favourite. She, too, is a once raced winner from about a fortnight ago, though she was more handily placed when taking a Newbury novice over six and a half furlongs. A daughter of Ghaiyyath, she's a January foal and as such is entitled to a precocity edge on most of her rivals. Plenty of fillies have won the Chesham in recent times, including Bedtime Story (2024) and Snellen (2023) as well as September (2017).

Karl Burke won this race in 2022 with the unraced Holloway Boy - some feat - and he's since further advertised himself as one of the top trainers in the country, particularly when it comes to juveniles. He's represented by Revels, easy three length winner of a Redcar maiden a month ago on his sole start. The second has yet to run again but the third won by almost five lengths on his next outing. This son of Lope De Vega is, unsurprisingly perhaps, owned by a member of the Mars family - Ms L Mars, in fact - and she's another that can obviously step forward. [Proud of myself for resisting all kinds of sugar/confectionery puns there].

Time For The Moon shouted his credentials when blitzing a field of Musselburgh novices by 7½ lengths - yikes. However, that was on his second start so he's less scope to improve than the once raced brigade, and - respectfully - it was Musselburgh and the time was good but not great. Moreover, he's gone from the front in his two races so far, with only last year's winner, Humidity, managing to make all in the past decade. It's not easy to do. Still, he has credentials.

Sea Venture has had the sole start, bolting up by three lengths in a Haydock fillies' maiden four weeks, and she is another unexposed runner. The form awaits a boost, though, with none of the five runners since making the frame; that includes the second and fourth, both beaten more than five lengths on their next starts.

Another son of Justify, Nola Soul, travels across for trainer John Stack. He beat a couple of Aidan's as well as a horse called Chesham, presumably fancied at some point to wind up here; closest to him that day, however, was King Of Cloughan which runs in the Windsor Castle on Wednesday: that clearly will be a line of the merit of the form, with the third-placed horse already having won since.

The most expensive horse in the field is an Amo-owned Charlie Johnston-trained Frankel colt called Pikachu. Named after the cute little pokemon, he was second on debut at Thirsk, behind the more experienced Alfred Wallace - another headed for Wednesday's Windsor Castle - and should improve plenty for that. He's a place player at least.

 

Suggestion: Aidan won this in 2024, 2021, 2020, 2017 and 2016; but he didn't win in three of the past four years. Aix La Chapelle has a very good chance and I think I'll save on him; but I'm going to have a point apiece on a couple at prices, Aperoll and Revels. Not because I'm thirsty and hungry, you understand, but rather because both bring impressive unbeaten-in-one form to the party and look definite value at around 10/1.

 

Tix Pointers: Keep it Aidan on A, and unbeaten winners of one on B.

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

3.05 THE KING GEORGE V STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Rory Delargy

The most interesting angle into this 1½m handicap is the effect of the draw. Logically, on a round course, the uneducated view (including among jockeys and trainers who should know better) is that being drawn close to the inside is a positive, and being drawn very wide is a negative. The truth is very different, as results of races over course and distance, and particularly the King George V, show. Here are the results since 2021 based on stall number:

2021: 17-11-21-10
2022: 8-3-12-5
2023: 21-8-16-22
2024: 18-19-8-13
2025: 20-21-3-2

As you can see, a very wide draw is no disadvantage (such results are borne out on a wider scale) and while those drawn low can and do get involved, they are the ones who tend to require a bit of luck in the run. When the field fans out in the straight, those who come widest tend to end up on the quicker ground and when races are run at a strong gallop as they usually are, those coming late and wide are at an advantage. 2022 was a year where the pace slackened mid-race, favouring those who were well positioned at that point, but it’s a rarity for pace to drop in that way with plenty usually keen to press on.

The pace map suggests that low-drawn horses should dominate the early stages but because those who want to lead are drawn close together, there must also be a decent chance that they get involved in a battle for primacy that produces some overly strong early fractions. Those on the front end can enhance their chances by dapping on the brakes at that point as a relentless gallop will play to the hold-up horses, but predicting mid-race tactics is almost impossible in advance and I’m relying on the pace map which predicts the gallop will be strong.

 

 

A strong pace isn’t just an indicator of where in the field the winner might emerge, but confirms that whatever horse wins will have had to show stamina for the trip; on that basis, I’d be keen to exclude those who appear best at up to 1¼m.  A key trial for this is the London Gold Cup at Newbury, which this year saw Lost Boys beat Sahara King and Tierra Del Toro. That was over 1¼m and I thought Tierra Del Toro was the one of the principals who would most benefit from the extra quarter mile here, as he took time to hit top gear before staying on best of all in the closing stages. He was without a prep run for that valuable contest, so I expect him to improve a little more for that first outing of the season, and while I’d prefer him to be drawn wider, stall 10 looks a good spot to stalk the leaders while keeping out of trouble. Ralph Beckett’s Lope de Vega gelding is untried at the trip and his half-brother Alcaraz has won only at 1¼m, but their dam is a full-sister to dual Arc winner Treve, which gives plenty of confidence that he will relish 1½m.

Cannes is one who looks sure to benefit from a test of stamina having landed a decent maiden over the trip at Leopardstown last month. That form looked good at the time and has been franked by wins for the third and fourth placed horses since (second yet to race again), while Cannes is likely to do better still as his stamina is drawn out in a well-run race, his dam being a half-sister to Mojo Star, who was runner-up in the Derby, St Leger and the Gold Cup here. I don’t think the Leopardstown contest got to the bottom of Cannes and he remains completely unexposed. Joseph O’Brien had his handicap record at Royal Ascot questioned at the start of the week, but saddling the 1-2 in the Ascot Stakes answered such criticism in resounding fashion. Stall 21 is a cracking position based on recent results of this race and he should have the race run to suit.

 

Suggestion:  1pt e/w Tierra del Toro @ 8/1 (Bet365, Hills – 5 places); 1pt e/w Cannes @ 11/1 (general – 5 places)

 

Tix Pointers: High draws are where it's been at. One day it won't go that way, but usually that's the counter-intuitive route in Royal Ascot handicaps over 1m4f.

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

 

3.40 THE RIBBLESDALE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by David Massey

John & Thady Gosden’s Legacy Link seemingly holds all the aces here. Her dam is Frankel’s full sister, and this filly is already building a little legacy (pardon the wordplay) of her own, still looking far from the finished project when winning the Musidora at York, outbattling the smoother-travelling Felicitas; and then her second in the Oaks to Thundering On, where she saw out the mile and a half well enough, another step forward.

She is, on form, the one to beat. But look at the prices of the last five winners; 7-1, 12-1, 13-2, 11-4, 18-1. Not a favourite in sight, and we’ve seen the likes of Kalpana, Al Asifah and Noon Star, good fillies all, turned over after previous good runs in Musidoras, Pretty Pollys and Oaks's. Yes, it’s been a bit of a favourites' graveyard recently, and that gives you hope if you’re taking her on.

Gilded Prize has been made second favourite by the books but it’s hard to see what that's based on. Yes, she was impressive enough when winning a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud back in April; but that form would need improving on, and she looked a bit on the slow side when easily brushed aside at Longchamp last time. This step up in trip might help, but all in all she looks short enough.

Earth Shot is improving for William Haggas and her head second to Inis Mor in the Height Of Fashion at Goodwood looks better after the winner finished third in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly last weekend, a very good run. On the bare form she has a lot to find, but she’s going the right way and her pedigree offers plenty of hope she’ll improve again for moving up in trip, the dam a winner at a mile and three-quarters. I like her profile and she is on my shortlist.

Aidan O’Brien has won this for the last three years with lesser fancied fillies, and Composing fits the bill as far as that profile is concerned. She’s getting a pair of blinkers to try and get her back on track, and that did the trick for Port Fairy a couple of years ago when O’Brien equipped her with a first-time visor. Impressive when rattling off a hat-trick last summer, including in G2 and G3 company, she appears to have lost her way this year; but her last of six at Longchamp last time wasn’t a bad effort strictly on the figures, and given she’s looked a bit short on gears this mile and a half could help. I can’t quite bring myself to put the red pen through her, given her trainer's recent record in the race. I think she might keep drifting and if there’s some 20-1 around on the day, I can see myself having a small win-only bet.

I think, if there’s going to be an upset, then Ralph Beckett’s Lady Roisia might be the one to supply it. If there’s one horse that’s almost cast-iron to be guaranteed to appreciate a step up to twelve furlongs then it’s her: the dam was Oaks winner Talent (also trained by Beckett) and there’s stamina on the sire’s side, too. Badly in need of her first run of the season at Newbury when third to Esna, she’ll strip a lot fitter for that here and I liked her physically when she won at Nottingham at the back end of last year. In a race that keeps throwing up little surprises, let’s hope she’s the latest in that line; at 20-1, I make her the each-way bet here.

Suggestion: Try Lady Roisia each way at 20/1

 

Tix Pointers: Aidan and Team Gosden have won ten of the last dozen renewals. They were unplaced in the other two though, so maybe leave a trailing leg?

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

 

4.15 THE GOLD CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

The Gold Cup is historically the centrepiece of the entire Royal Ascot meeting, and chronologically precisely that fulcrum, with 17 races before and the same number after. It might be that races like the St James's Palace Stakes have become a little more fashionable with speed admired over resolve these days, but this is always a compelling watch and frequently the province of the returning champ - who doesn't love that?

This century has given us the brilliant four-time winner Yeats, triple scorer Stradivarius, and dual champs Royal Rebel and Kyprios. Where better to begin, then, than with the defending Gold Cup hero Trawlerman? It's fair to say that I was a little unkind to him in the aftermath of last year's Gold Cup, opining that a seven-year-old couldn't be improving and that he'd been given a very soft time of it on the front end that day.

While there was some truth in my brickbats, Trawlerman went unbeaten in two further races last term, the G2 Lonsdale Cup and the G1 Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. A feature of his wins has been a mid-race injection of pace and then even finishing fractions: in plain English, he gets his rivals out of their comfort zone early and then keeps them uncomfortable.

It's probably fair to say that it was far from a vintage renewal last year, and indeed that the staying crop was below par as a whole. That counts against the dependable but (relatively) limited Sweet William, stablemate of Trawlerman, who possibly doesn't quite stay this far either. He did win the Doncaster Cup over 2m2f and kicked off 2026 with a win in the Sagaro here over two miles. A very likeable chap, he's not on my mind for this.

Of the other golden oldies, Dubai Future stayed on into a never dangerous 3rd a year ago and he's 50/1; he will presumably again be ridden to pick up pieces. And Al Nayyir has been consistent, mainly in defeat and usually at slightly below top class.

Joseph O'Brien showed his talents with stayers on the flat on Tuesday when saddling a 1-2 over the course and distance in the Ascot Stakes, so his Al Riffa is worth a second glance. Now six, he was a Group 1 winner in Germany in 2024, and he doubled his top tier tally when bagging last year's Irish St Leger over 1m6f. Since then, he's been racking up the Avios (and almost £300,000 in prizemoney), with good runs in defeat in Australia, Hong Kong, Dubai and France. This will be a half mile trip increase and he's not certain to stay, but he does bring a level of form few of his rivals can boast.

It's been quite the journey for Caballo De Mar, beaten 15 lengths in a novice stakes this week two years ago - to be fair, the winner was Ombudsman! - and a seven-race maiden before breaking his duck, off 64, in an Ayr handicap in September 2024. What fun connections have had since, as this unfashionably bred and cheaply bought son of Phoenix Of Spain has totted up nine wins via that starter at Ayr, then Southwell four times on the bounce (!), Haydock, Dortmund and Longchamp twice - both Group 1's. Additionally, he ran second in the Chester Cup, the Copper Horse Stakes here last year, the Dubai Gold Cup and in Sweet William's Sagaro. Wow. I do have a niggle that some of those overseas wins were a little below the level needed here, and I suspect Al Riffa will reverse the French form from last time if he sees out the extra yardage.

The other new kids on the block and, aged four with a bit more improvement potentially, are Rahiebb and Scandinavia. Rahiebb is trained by Roger Varian and, after a three-year-old season of knocking on the door - most notably when a neck second to Scandinavia in the St Leger - the more mature four-year-old model was an unequivocal winner of the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup in mid-May. That was 1m6f and he'll go almost a full Wokingham further here, which is the major question mark. His late sectionals certainly lend credence to the idea that he will stay but it's a risk that needs factoring into his price.

Rahiebb's old rival Scandinavia comes here on a five match unbeaten run that started in the G3 Bahrain Trophy last July and has taken in the Goodwood Cup, the St Leger (Doncaster), the Vintage Crop (Navan) and the Saval Beg at Leopardstown. As a result of that nap hand he's a very short price here, but he's not actually stepped forward on his level of form across that quintet of scores. He definitely looks under-priced to me and I'm taking him on, for all that he obviously has a sexy knack of getting the job done.

In the end, it looks a three-horse go between the top trio in the market: Scandinavia, Rahiebb and Trawlerman. Although he still sets the standard, my feeling is that Trawlerman, on seasonal bow and now aged eight, is vulnerable to the more progressive four-year-olds. There was only a neck between Scandinavia and Rahiebb in the St Leger last autumn, the latter finishing well and just failing to get up. With both of them needing to prove they stay this far, the value call is definitely Rahiebb.

I expect that Al Riffa could get into the first four if he stays, and maybe onto the podium. He's clear best of the rest for me.

Suggestion: Back Rahiebb to win at 4/1. Have a look at Al Riffa e/w at 10/1.

 

Tix Pointers: Another Aidan/Gosden benefit. Probably keeping it simple here as plenty of problems to follow...

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

 

4.50 THE BRITANNIA STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by Sam Darby

I shared the historic draw and pace data in yesterday’s Royal Hunt Cup preview, so if you want to reference that before having a bet, you’ll find it in the Day Two preview article here.

As I am writing this before Wednesday’s racing begins, I have less information than you’ll have by the time you read this. But on Tuesday it definitely looked as though high draws were advantageous on the straight course; it will be interesting to see if that changes on Wednesday.

The spread of the early pace could have an impact on any potential draw bias here, so the pace map should be insightful.



The pace is pretty evenly spread across the course - and there looks to be lots of it! Given the straight course tends to favour patient rides anyway, this really could be a race where you want to be held up out back and played late.

It goes without saying that any amount of these horses could be well ahead of their marks, such is the nature of these big field 3yo handicaps where pretty much every runner is lightly raced. This is more of a race to follow going forward, rather than to bet on, but that doesn’t mean we can’t back the winner as well!

There are two horses that I like in this one.

My more favoured pick would be Outback Heat, who was well backed following the final decs on Tuesday. He won a course and distance handicap on his most recent start, coming from last to first. Winning that race before landing the Britannia Stakes is a path this trainer took with Docklands back in 2023 and Harry Eustace also saddled the runner up in this race last year (La Botte).

After just three starts, Outback Heat is entitled to improve as much as anything in this field and he beat the subsequent Silver Bowl winner (who reopposes here on worse terms) in that race, alongside some other runners who have placed since in good races.

He’s drawn in 18, which might be a bit closer to the middle than ideal, but it does give him the obvious option of switching to the near side. My main question mark is Kaiya Fraser keeping the ride. He’s been on board for all three runs so far, so at least knows the horse well, but I’d have preferred one of the top jockeys.

The other one who catches my eye is Wechaad for Roger Varian. He’s a bit more exposed than some of these, with six runs under his belt, and whilst I’m on the negatives, maybe he wants a bit more cut in the ground.

He caught the eye on seasonal reappearance at Goodwood though, in a race that is often a good guide for this (2021 winner Perotto took the same route), where he not only did best of those held up but he did best of the high draws, too. Any draw/pace students out there will know how detrimental stall 15 is over 7f at Goodwood, so that effort can be massively marked up.

He’s drawn in stall 28, whereas many of the market fancies appear to be low drawn. If the higher drawn horses are at an advantage, like I think they could be, then there should be some really nice value to be had.

Suggestion: Try each way Outback Heat at 11/1, and Wechaad at 9/1.

 

Tix Pointers: One of the top four in the market has usually won this, but a couple of wacky placepot results involved the joint fifth and joint seventh in the markets being the highest betting rank placed horse. Spread out!

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

 

5.35 THE HAMPTON COURT STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

A typical Hampton Court winner has:
 - yet to win at Group level (15 of the last 15 winners)
 - an official rating of 103+ (14/15)
 - raced 3-7 times in their career (14/15)
 - came from the top 4 in the betting (13/15)
 - returned less than 8/1 (14/15)
13 of the last 15 winners had won at least one of their last three starts and had finished top 6 in all of those three starts (14/15).
3 of the last 15 winners last raced at Epsom (from just 9 such runners).
In the last 15 years, all 22 runners that had their last start in a class 3-5 race, all 15 horses that last ran in the 2000 Guineas, all 12 horses that last ran in a Group 2 and all 6 horses that last ran on the all weather have been beaten.

Traditionally this is a race for those who missed the Derby due to stamina doubts or those that did run in the Derby but didn't stay. The trends are pretty strong and leave us looking at easy Listed winner Endorsement or Lingfield Derby Trial flop Maho Bay.

By Dubawi out of a Dandy Man mare, Maho Bay is probably not bred to stay, especially since everything in his pedigree ran (well) at up to a mile. He'd looked good when taking a Newmarket novice over ten furlongs in handsome style but stopped quickly over the Derby trip in the Lingfield trial. This step down will certainly suit but he needs to find more than his demonstrated level of form.

The form of Endorsement is rock solid having run a 1/2 length second to Derby winner Christmas Day and filling the same position by the same margin behind Derby third James J Braddock in two of the top Irish Derby Trials ealier in the Spring. He was last seen trouncing his field in a 12f Listed contest by over 7 lengths and is another favourite who has the level required to win this Group 3 with the only question to answer being whether he can perform just as well back over 10f.

Suggestion: Back Endorsement at 9/4

 

 

Tix Pointers: Every one of the last 13 winners started in the first four in the betting. Only one of the last eight winners also won last time out. So a fancied runner that perhaps doesn't look like one?

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

6.10 THE BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

This race was taken off the calendar in 2015 but reinstated in 2020. Hence in terms of trends, I am looking at the last ten renewals, which cover 2011 to 2014 and 2020 to 2025.

Two wins for horses from the top four of the betting, with both being favourite (last two years). Five winners priced between 12/1 and 18/1; the other three were 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1.

4yos have won six of the last ten (60%) from 40% of the total runners. 4yos do have the best placed record (roughly double compared with the other age groups combined).

7yos and older have a poor record win 0 wins and just 5 places from 45 runners.

Seven of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter on their most recent start. This equates to 70% of the winners from just 42% of the total runners.

 

Draw

The number of runners each year has fluctuated between 23 and 29 so for my draw analysis I am using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail.  Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.

Looking at the last ten renewals, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account, so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

 

As the numbers show horses drawn within ten stalls of the stands’ rail have had a significant edge in this race over the past ten years. Indeed, last year’s race saw a huge draw bias as the race result below shows:

 

 

Now, draw bias can come and go at the Royal meeting, but personally a middle to higher draw would be my preference in this race unless the ground came up soft.

 

Run Style

In terms of run style 29 of the 40 win/placed runners over the last ten renewals were held up or raced mid division. Hold up horses have the best record when we analyse the PRBs hitting 0.58. Generally, a horse coming off the pace would be preferred.

 

 

For a field this size there is a surprising lack of genuine front runners. River King looks the most likely from 14, but it will be interesting to see therefore how quickly they go early.

With a maximum field declared here are my thoughts on a few of them.

Defence Minister – has been unlucky with the draw several times in the past with a prime example being his most recent race, over course and distance. There he was drawn on the wrong side, finishing third of his group but 17th overall. The two runners in his group that finished in front of him both ran well next time so his run was far better than the finishing position suggested. However, based on recent renewals of this race, he could have been unlucky with the draw again as he has a low berth in 8.

Hickory – definitely has age against him in terms of past trends for this race, but with two wins and five placed runs at Ascot he clearly loves it here. Having said that he was disappointing over C&D first time up this season. Was not suited by the run of the race at Sandown last time as it was dominated by horses that were up with the pace that day. Will need a career best to win, but may be worth a look in markets offering lots of places. Has the right type of run style and he is drawn in the middle so has options.

Cosi Bello – Lightly raced four-year-old with just five career starts (three wins, one second, one fourth). Up 2lbs for his seasonal debut win at Haydock in May after which trainer Charlie Fellowes said, "the Buckingham Palace Stakes is the obvious target. I think we’ll go straight there and keep him fresh. The stiff seven will suit him perfectly." Tends to race from off the pace which should be a plus, and he is drawn in 26.

Great Acclaim – Has raced over course and distance three times including when second of 28 last time out. He has been raised two pounds for that effort but his mark of 100 looks fair. His other two runs over course and distance also saw good efforts with another big field second and a 4th of 15. He has a very consistent profile and if excluding his 2yo career he has won six and been placed seven times from 24 starts. Could be well drawn in 23.

The Wizard Of Eye – Beat Great Acclaim over course and distance last time which was his second track/trip success. Raised five pounds for that win and would need a career best at the age of seven to win this. Could be ideally drawn though in 29.

Dance In The Storm – Has had seven runs on the turf with two wins and two placed efforts. Won first time up this year at Chepstow before disappointing at Epsom on Oaks day when fifth of 16. Epsom might not have suited her and if we can forgive that run then she should be there or thereabouts. Looks the best of the very low drawn runners.

River King – Not been out of the first three in five turf starts and has a PRB of 0.91. Comfortable winner from the front at Newbury LTO over 1 mile and likely to press on early here dropped a furlong. It’s hard to win from the front at Ascot but has a clear form chance. Drawn 14.

 

Suggestion: The draw could play a big part here again, but we can never be 100 per cent sure how that will pan out. In such a big field I am happy to try three against the field. I’m taking 20/1 Great Acclaim and 8/1 Cosi Bello from the higher draws and from the lower draws I will take a bit of a flyer on 25/1 Defence Minister as I have always been a fan of negative draw bias.

 

And that's a wrap for Ladies' Day. It doesn't get any easier, does it? But it should be another cracking day of sport, and one good winner will apologise for many other wagering missteps.

Stay lucky!

Matt

 

 

 

2026 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day Two (Weds 17th June)

/in , /by

More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2025 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 16th to Sat 20th June 2026) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners - as the big meeting moves into day two on Wednesday 17th June 2026.

Royal Ascot Trends Day Two – Wednesday 17th June 2026

2.30 - Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) 5f ITV

Queen Mary Recent Winners

2025 – True Love (9/4 fav)
2024 – Leovanno (22/1)
2023 – Crimson Advocate (9/1)
2022 – Dramatised (5/2 fav)
2021 – Quick Suzy (8/1)
2020 – Campanelle (9/2)
2019 – Raffle Prize (18/1)
2018 – Signora Cabello (25/1)
2017 – Heartache (5/1)
2016 – Lady Aurelia (2/1 fav)
2015 – Acapulco (5/2 fav)
2014 – Anthem Alexander (9/4 fav)
2013 – Rizeena (6/1)
2012 – Ceiling Kitty (20/1)
2011 – Best Terms (12/1)
2010 – Maqaasid (9/4 fav)
2009 – Jealous Again (13/2)
2008 – Langs Lash (25/1)
2007 – Elletelle (20/1)
2006 – Gilded (11/2)
2005 – Flashy Wings (4/1 jfav)
2004 – Damson (11/2 jfav)
2003 – Attraction (13/8 fav)
2002 – Romantic Liason (16/1)

Queen Mary Stakes Trends

23/24 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
23/24 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
19/24 – Had won over 5f (or shorter) before
19/24 – Won their previous race
17/24 – Placed favourites
16/24 – Won by a horse foaled between Jan-Mar
10/24 – Won from non UK-based yards
9/24 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
8/24 – Returned a double-figure price
5/24 – Trained in the US
4/24 – Trained by Wesley Ward (including 3 of last 11 runnings)
2/24 – Won by trainer Richard Hannon
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 12+
6 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 20+
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 10+
Trainer Karl Burke has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Trainer Aidan O’Brien won the race for the first time in 2025

3.05 - Queen´s Vase (Listed) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m6f ITV

Queen´s Vase Recent Winners

2025 – Carmers (9/2)
2024 – Illinois (7/4 fav)
2023 – Gregory (Evs fav)
2022 – Eldar Eldarov (5/2 fav)
2021 – Kemari (15/2)
2020 – Santiago (10/3)
2019 – Dashing Willoughby (6/1)
2018 – Kew Gardens (10/3)
2017 – Stradivarius (11/2)
2016 – Sword Fighter (33/1)
2015 – Aloft (5/2 fav)
2014 – Hartnell (7/2)
2013 – Leading Light (5/4 fav)
2012 – Estimate (3/1 fav)
2011 – Namibian (7/2 fav)
2010 – Mikhail Glinka (2/1 fav)
2009 – Holberg (7/1)
2008 – Patkai (6/4 fav)
2007 – Mahler (7/1)
2006 – Soapy Danger (4/1)
2005 – Melrose Avenue (4/1)
2004 – Duke Of Venice (9/2)
2003 – Shanty Star (7/2 fav)

Queen´s Vase Key Trends

21/23 – Had never raced at Ascot before
17/23 – Placed last time out
15/23 – Had run over at least 1m4f before
14/23 – Had at least 2 previous career wins
13/23 – Placed favourites
9/23 – Winning favourites
8/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
8/23 – Ran at either Lingfield or Haydock last time out
6/23 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
5/23 - Trained by the Johnston yard

No winner from stall 1 in the last 20 years
The horse from stall 7 has been placed in 8 of the last 19 runnings (4 wins)
19 of the last 20 winners came from a single-figure stall
7 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 7 or 8
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 9

3.40 - The Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) 1m ITV

Duke of Cambridge Recent Winners

2025 – Crimson Advocate (13/2)
2024 – Running Lion (6/1)
2023 – Rogue Millennium (10/1)
2022 – Saffron Beach (5/2 jfav)
2021 – Indie Angel (22/1)
2020 – Nazeef (10/3)
2019 – Move Swiftly (9/1)
2018 – Aljazzi (9/2)
2017 – Qemah (5/2 fav)
2016 – Usherette (9/4 fav)
2015 – Amazing Maria (25/1)
2014 – Integral (9/4 fav)
2013 – Duntle (10/3)
2012 – Joviality (11/1)
2011 – Lolly For Dolly (11/1)
2010 – Strawberrydaiquiri (9/2)
2009 – Spacious (10/1)
2008 – Sabana Perdida (4/1)
2007 – Nannina (3/1 co-fav)
2006 – Soviet Song (11/8 fav)
2005 – Peeress (14/1)
2004 – Favourable Terms (13/2)

Duke of Cambridge Trends

21/22 – Had won over a mile (or further) before
20/22 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
19/22 – Won by a 4 year-old
17/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/22 – Had won a Group 3 or better race before
14/22 – Favourites that were placed
14/22 – Had run at Ascot before
8/22 – Had won at Ascot before
7/22 – Returned a double-figure price
6/22 – Winning favourites (1 co)
5/22 – Owned by Cheveley Park Stud
5/22 – Ran at Epsom last time out
5/22 – Trained by John Gosden (5 of the last 14 and 4 of last 6 runnings)
3/22 – Ridden by William Buick (3 of last 14)
2/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of last 14)
2/22 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/22 – Winners from stall 1
2 French-trained winners since 2016
Only 6 placed horses (2 winners) from stall 1 in the last 22 runnings
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has NEVER won this race

4.20 - Prince of Wales´s Stakes (Group 1) 1m2f ITV

Prince of Wales´s Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Ombudsman (7/1)
2024 – Auguste Rodin (13/8 fav)
2023 – Mostahdaf (10/1)
2022 – State Of Rest (5/1)
2021 – Love (11/10 fav)
2020 – Lord North (5/1)
2019 – Crystal Ocean (3/1)
2018 – Poet’s Word (11/2)
2017 – Highland Reel (9/4)
2016 – My Dream Boat (16/1)
2015 – Free Eagle (5/2 fav)
2014 – The Fugue (11/2)
2013 – Al Kazeem (11/4)
2012 – So You Think (4/5 fav)
2011 – Rewilding (17/2)
2010 – Byword (5/2 fav)
2009 – Vision D’etat (4/1)
2008 – Duke of Marmalade (Evs fav)
2007 – Manduro (15/8 fav)
2006 – Ouija Board (8/1)
2005 – Azamour (11/8 fav)
2004 – Rakti (3/1)
2003 – Nayef (5/1)
2002 - Grandera (4/1)

Prince of Wales´s Stakes Trends

24/24 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
23/24 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
23/24 – Won by a 4 or 5 year-old
20/24 – Finished in the top three last time out
20/24 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
16/24 – Were previous Group 1 winners
16/24 – Placed favourites
13/24 – Had run at Ascot before
12/24 – Won their last race
12/24 – Won by a non-UK based trainer
8/24 – Winning favourites
5/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4 of the last 14) (5 in total)
4/24 – Trained by John Gosden (6 wins in total)
3/24 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (6 wins in total)
3 of the last 18 runnings have gone to a French-trained horse
Ryan Moore has ridden 3 winners since 2017
No winner aged 7+ since the race was reintroduced in 1968
The last back-to-back winner Muhtarram (1994-95)

5.00 - Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) 1m ITV

Royal Hunt Cup Recent Winners

2025 – My Cloud (3/1 fav)
2024 – Wild Tiger (11/2 jfav)
2023 – Jimi Hendrix (22/1)
2022 – Dark Shift (13/2)
2021 – Real World (18/1)
2020 – Dark Vision (15/2)
2019 – Afaak (20/1)
2018 – Settle For Bay (16/1)
2017 – Zhui Feng (25/1)
2016 – Portage (10/1)
2015 – GM Hopkins (8/1)
2014 – Field of Dream (20/1)
2013 – Belgian Bill (33/1)
2012 – Prince Of Johanne (16/1)
2011 – Julienas (12/1)
2010 – Invisible Man (28/1)
2009 – Forgotten Voice (4/1 fav)
2008 – Mr Aviator (25/1)
2007 – Royal Oath (9/1)
2006 – Cesare (14/1)
2005 – New Seeker (11/1)
2004 – Mine (16/1)
2003 – Macadamia (8/1)
2002 – Norton (25/1)

Royal Hunt Cup Trends

21/24 – Had won over at least a mile before
21/24 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
18/24 – Carried 9-1 or less
16/24 – Unplaced favourites
16/24 – Returned a double-figure price
15/24 – Had run at Ascot before
15/24 – Won by a 4 year-old (inc 12 of the last 16 runnings)
13/24 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs that season
8/24 – Won their last race
3/24 – Winning favourites
3/24 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor (3 of the last 16)
2/24 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/24 – Won by trainer John Gosden
2/24 – Won by trainer Charles Hills (2 of the last 7)
Overall, high number stalls have dominated in recent years (the first 6 home in 2024 were ALL double-figure stalls)
2025 winner from stall 32
16 of the last 20 winners came from a double-figure stall
We’ve seen 3 winners from stall 33 in the last 17 runnings
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has NEVER won this race

5.35 – Kensington Palace Stakes (Handicap) (4yo+) fillies and mares 1m ITV

5 previous runnings
No winning favourite yet
All five past winners aged 4
All five winners drawn between 8-21
All five winners returned a double figure price
Miss Information (11/1) won the race in 2025
Villanova Queen (25/1) won this race in 2023
Rising Star (40/1) won this race in 2022
Trainer Ralph Beckett won the race in 2024 (Doha)
Trainer Mrs John Harrington won this race in 2023
Trainer Marco Botti won this race in 2022
Trainer David Loughnane won this race in 2021

6.10 - Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f ITV4

Windsor Castle Recent Winners

2025 – Havana Hurricane (7/1)
2024 – Ain’t Nobody (5/1)
2023 – Big Evs (20/1)
2022 – Little Big Bear (6/5 fav)
2021 – Chipotle (22/1)
2020 – Tactical (7/2 fav)
2019 – Southern Hills (7/1)
2018 – Soldier’s Call (12/1)
2017 – Sound And Silence (16/1)
2016 – Ardad (20/1)
2015 – Washington DC (5/1)
2014 – Hootenanny (7/2 fav)
2013 – Extortionist (16/1)
2012 – Hototo (14/1)
2011 – Frederick Engels (9/4 fav)
2010 – Marine Commando (9/2)
2009 – Strike The Tiger (33/1)
2008 – Flashmans Papers (100/1)
2007 – Drawnfromthepast (9/1)
2006 – Elhamri (20/1)
2005 – Titus Alone (11/4)
2004 – Chateau Istana (12/1)
2003 – Holborn (5/2 fav)
2002 – Revenue (14/1)

Windsor Castle Trends

24/24 – Had at least 1 previous outing
23/24 – Won by a foal born April or earlier
20/24 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs
18/24 – Had won over 5f before
18/24 – Placed last time out
18/24 – Had never run at Ascot before
13/24 – Unplaced favourites
12/24 – Returned a double-figure price (inc a 100/1 winner)
11/24 – Won their previous race
9/24 – Won by a Feb foal
5/24 – Winning favourites
3/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of last 11)
2/24 – Trained by Wesley Ward
Just 2 horses placed from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
12 of the last 18 winners came from a double-figure stall
Trainer Kevin Ryan has won 2 of the last 14

 

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Royal Ascot 2026: Day 2 Preview, Trends, Tips

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It's Day Two, Wednesday, at Royal Ascot and we have seven more top class races to watch / puzzles to solve. They are led off by the juvenile fillies but, before that, a couple of reminders...

Reminder 1: you can also check out our full Royal Ascot Wednesday trends page here

Reminder 2: we've got a free £50 Tix competition every day. Bet £5 or more into the placepot/jackpot pools via Tix and, if you played the highest ROI ticket on the day, you'll get an extra £50 - on top of the 5% bonus paid to ALL winning bets placed through Tix. Click here to take part

 

Our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race
(*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).

The going for day two of Royal Ascot, Wednesday 17th June, is: Good to Firm.

GoingStick at 8.30am:
Stands’ side: 8.9
Centre: 8.7
Far side: 8.5
Round: 7.6

Stalls:
Straight Course: centre
Round Course: inside 

Rail movements:
The rail on the Round Course will be positioned approximately 4yds out from approximately 9f out to the home straight. This will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.

3.05pm +14 yards (approximately)
3.40pm +7 yards (approximately)
4.20pm +14 yards (approximately) 

Weather:
Dry overnight to Wednesday morning. It is forecast to be generally dry through the week, with an occasional shower possible on Friday. Max temp expected to be between 22 and 26 to Thursday when they could increase further.

 

 

2.30 THE QUEEN MARY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

Trends

All of the last 11 UK and Irish trained winners had run in the last 50 days.
10 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners had won at least one of their last two races.
9 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners had won 50% of their races.
11 of the last 15 winners had their last run over 5f (or less).
14 of the last 18 winners were sent off 4/1 or shorter last time out.
8 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners won their last race.
7 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners had suffered at least one defeat.
11 of the last 15 winners had run once or twice in their career.
All 33 horses that last raced at Windsor have been beaten.
Since 2003, all 28 runners that last ran on the UK AW have been beaten.

Race Analysis

It's the race that Wesley Ward has had most success in (four wins) and it seems to have spurred a couple of his compatriots to join him on a trans-Atlantic mission this year. With a runner from France also set to line up it gives a truly international feel to the race.

We'll start by removing the maidens, those outside the top 3 last time, those which haven't won 50% of their career races and any that last ran on the all-weather. 11 of the last 12 winners have been drawn 10 or higher (6 of the last 11 were drawn 20+) with the US Speedball Campanelle the only one to recently defy a low draw when coming out of stall 1 in 2020.

If we apply these trends and look for those with a high draw we can reduce the field down to nine possibles.

Wesley Ward runs two with Ruiva subject of a few good reports and apparently his number one hope after trouncing her field over 4 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs. As is usual for the Ward juveniles she made all that day and I'm guessing we can expect similar tactics here from a favourable draw. She's yet to race on turf although Ward assures us she worked fantastic on the surface the other day. Only time will tell if she can handle the start, the surface and a jockey who has never raced outside of North America before.

That's too many maybe's for me and I'm happy to look elsewhere.

His other runner, Shining Moment, was equally impressive when also making all the running at Churchill Downs but she did it on the 5f turf track and that may be in her favour. The booking of jockey Oisin Murphy is eyecatching and I think she'll run a big race at a big price from an even more favourable draw (21).

But the Ward runner was really put in her place on debut by another American raider, MORE CHAMPAGNE, and has 6 1/2 lengths to find with that rival from their encounter on the turf at Keeneland back in April. Shining Moment pulled far too hard that day and set a ferocious pace up front making her a sitting duck as she swung into the straight. It was therefore no surprise to see her fold tamely in the last half furlong or so which allowed More Champagne, who had enjoyed the perfect run through the race, an easy victory as she came up alongside beautifully before quickening away to the line. The front two were miles clear of the rest of the field.

Coming out of stall 14 the Thomas Morley-trained filly should get another fast pace to aim at and, unlike the Ward filly, her jockey, John Velazquez, is no stranger to Ascot with four wins to his name at the Royal meeting. I think she's a cracking each way bet with five places on offer with most of the bookmakers.

 

Suggestion: More Champagne 1/2pt EW 14/1 (5 places)

 

 

Tix Pointers: In the past 11 years, there were four winning favourites and three second picks coming home in front. The jolly placed in two of the other four years, with another second choice making the frame in 2018... but in 2024 we got 22/1 (co 10th fav of 4), 50/1, 50/1. Incredibly, the placepot only paid £916.60 that day, the rest of the results being much more punter-friendly.

High drawn horses have an excellent record, especially on quicker ground.

Play the £400,000 guaranteed placepot with Tix here >>

 

3.05 THE QUEEN'S VASE (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Formerly a two-miler the Queen's Vase was foreshortened to a mile and three-quarters in 2017, and at the same time was elevated to Group 2 status in recognition of the importance of the staying Pattern for the health of the breed. That decision was instantly vindicated as the first winner of the new version was the mighty Stradivarius, who would go on to carry all before him for the next six seasons.

If hoping for the emergence of another such luminary seems somewhat fantastical, it is a more realistic aspiration that the list of Group 1 winners - including Queen's Vase / St Leger doublers Kew Gardens and Eldar Eldarov - might be extended.

Favoured this time is the Andrew Balding-trained Galiyan, stepping out of maiden company after a solid staying effort at Chester's May meeting over a mile and a half. Three of the last five winners were unraced at two and twice raced at three, so there are precedents. That said, two of that trio won Listed contests on their previous start, and the third was sent off a more agreeable 15/2 when claiming his QV. Galiyan looks very short on what he's achieved to date - he must be really good at home.

There's a bit more form meat on the Limestone bone, Joseph O'Brien's New Bay colt having won the Listed Yeats Stakes last time. That was the same stepping stone deployed by connections of last year's winner, Carmers, which add further to this one's appeal. Limestone has a nice level of experience, which perhaps means he lacks the upside of some of his peers; nevertheless it was a significant step up in form when significantly stepped up in trip for the first time at Navan. He's yet to race on good or quicker.

Aidan rolls the stamina dice with Port Of Spain, a lesser Ballydoyle light heretofore, and beaten in a handicap last time out. In his defence, that handicap was the kingmaker London Gold Cup at Newbury, where he didn't get the smoothest of trips and was beaten four lengths. By St Mark's Basilica out of a Duke Of Marmalade mare, there's a murmur of robustness in the blood lines; mostly, though, this is a trust play: Aidan has a hundred - literally - colts to aim at this race, and Port Of Spain is the nomination. He's got it right six times in the last 13 years meaning a win this time would grant him 50% of the winners over 14 years. Still, I'm having to squint pretty hard, and away from the actual form book to make his case.

Asakir looked all over the winner of the Yeats Stakes before ceding to Limestone late on. Limestone had led the field for more than half the race before three horses went by him; then, in the final quarter mile, Asakir cruised to the front before getting chased down by the winner. The pair pulled eight clear of a fancied APO'B runner and the form looks good. In the back of my mind I'm wondering if a different ride on Asakir could reverse placings with Limestone - at the respective prices, I want to crystallise that image. He is another yet to race on a sound surface and is not necessarily bred for it; but I'm getting out of my lane with that sort of chat.

The stoutly bred Del Maro - by Camelot out of a Maxios mare who herself won the German Oaks - was born to be good. Unfortunately, the numbers on his form profile don't quite match that smart pedigree, yet. The extra three furlongs and a bigger field should place more emphasis on staying power, and that should elicit improvement notwithstanding this will be his eighth start compared with some having only their third. He is another who can conceivably go well.

There's a Royal runner in this field's midst, too. Point Of Law was a clearcut winner of a Newbury maiden last time despite looking very green on his second career start. Always handy, they quickened off a steady early tempo and I'd be inclined to mark up a couple of the beaten horses more than the winner. None of the four to race again from that day has won, the third and fourth both finding one too good since. The Gosden stable won this, as referenced, with Stradavarius in 2017 and also with Gregory in 2023. The latter's profile was not dissimilar though he'd already secured Listed honours by the time he arrived at Ascot.

Still they come. Unbeaten in two Ravenspire runs for the Executors of the Late Sheikh Mohamed Obaid and Karl Burke, and he's probably a tad over-priced for all that he's achieved very little in those two small fields novice scores. And Archie Watson's decent Royal Ascot record means Wareeth - two from three either side of a clunk in Listed company - cannot be wholly ignored. He's bred stoutly and could enjoy this half mile longer trek.

Suggestion: Lots of possibles, including Port Of Spain for which I'm hard pressed to make a case (which normally means I've missed something material). That Yeats Stakes form is probably above average and both the winner and second, Limestone and Asakir, have cases to be made assuming they handle the terra firmer. Of the rest, Galiyan is too short but has obvious potential; and Del Maro could make the frame.

Try 7/2 Limestone for the win, and/or 9/1 Asakir or 14/1 Del Maro each way.

 

Tix Pointers: Consistently one of the more predictable races at the meeting, with five winning favourites joined by the same number of second favourites prevailing, and a brace of third choices since 2013. Indeed, the longest priced winner bar one was 15/2 (beat the favourite). When Aidan shocked us with 33/1 Sword Fighter in 2016, the 8/1 fourth favourite hit the frame, too.

As well as Aidan (obvs), look out for Charlie A and Andrew B, both of whom have saddled more than a third of their runners into the frame.

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3.40 THE DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by David Massey

A bigger field than is normally the case for the Duke Of Cambridge this year, although we did have fourteen runners a couple of years ago. Which was nice.

John & Thady Gosden have won this three times in the last five years so it makes some sense to start with Friendly Soul. Yes, the Mare That Closed Haydock DownTM, or something, thankfully returns here in one piece, and for all her quirks she looked in good form at Haydock before the incident, bowling along happily on the front and yet to be asked to go about her business when the hole appeared, and she was quickly pulled up. Essentially, take Haydock and the Musidora run - when she hung her chance away - out of the equation and you’ve got a very talented mare with some top-class efforts to her name. And that includes a defeat of Kalpana in the Pretty Polly back in the day, lest we forget. Nicely drawn in stall 5, she’ll have the hard-pulling Falakeyah to take her into the race and she looks the one to beat, assuming all is well after that last day mishap.

Blue Bolt has been made early favourite for this. Her best piece of form to date came when second in the Sun Chariot last year, that run capping off a season where she did nothing but improve and gave the impression she’d be even better at four. She didn’t need to be at her best to win the Listed Conqueror Fillies Stakes on her reappearance and she won with plenty in hand, backed off the boards to do so (Kon Tiki, She’s Perfect and Arisaig in behind). She’s clearly smart and, for all she’s bred to get a bit further than a mile, she isn’t short of speed; she is just about the right favourite if short enough on balance, though.

Hold-up performers have had their share of success in this in recent times (think Crimson Advocate last year, Rogue Millenium in 2023 and Indie Angel in 2021) and if they do go a step too quickly then the strong-travelling Catalina Delcarpio looks the one to be with. Her only disappointment (I say disappointing, it really wasn’t a bad effort) came in the Ribblesdale last year when she appeared not to quite see out the twelve furlongs. I think it was that, rather than the firm ground, that caused the defeat, but in any case she looked a much-improved filly when winning the Listed Amethyst Stakes at Leopardstown last month. Responding well to pressure, she took it up with half a furlong to run, and was strong at the finish. There was a lot to like about the way she went about things there, and as long as Billy Lee finds room on her - a low draw could make things a little tricky in that regard - I think she looks the main danger to Friendly Soul.

I do like to try and make a case for an outsider, as you know, but I have to be honest with you here and say that’s proving something of a struggle. I don’t suppose it’s impossible to see Arisaig dropped out the back and Jamie Spencer trying to bring her with a late run but stall 1 is going to make that difficult, a lot of luck will be required. I have a soft spot for Dash Of Azure though, and she did run well enough in the Sandringham last year (a closing fifth at the line) to suggest a mile is within her compass, for all she’s generally been kept to seven furlongs. Stall 13 and Rossa Ryan both look positives, and maybe if there’s an each-way swing with the extra places to be had, it’s her. Watch for her late on the scene.

Selection: Dutch 9/2 Friendly Soul and 8/1 Catalina Delcarpio, or take a wild swing at 66/1 Dash Of Azure

 

Tix Pointers: John & Thady Gosden three times, and Sr. once in his sole name, have four of the most recent six renewals.

Although four-year-olds have won 12 of the past 13, five-year-olds actually have a superior place strike rate (36% vs 24%) and PRB (0.54 vs 0.5). To wit, aside from a year when the two 5yos were 33/1 and a year when there were none of that age, there's only been a single year when a mare of that age has missed the frame - of course, it was last year. The vast majority of runners are younger, but don't dismiss the fives.

Four jollies got it done since 2013, but only one since 2017. However, the first or second market choice has made the frame every year in that time.

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4.20 THE PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Rory Delargy

In terms of pure class, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes is one of the highlights of the Royal Meeting and class tends to come to the fore, with only two winners at double-digit odds since Lear Spear sprung a 20/1 surprise in 1999. Six winning favourites in the last 20 runnings isn’t far behind market expectations, but there is clearly no edge in either backing or laying market leaders blindly.

Ombudsman won this last year having suffered defeat in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes (to the reopposing Almaqam, albeit conceding that rival 3lb), and he arrives here having won that prep this time around, and that despite suffering a setback since scoring in the Dubai Turf at Meydan in March. He is at his best on good or quicker ground, so conditions are again in his favour and he has strong form claims on balance.

The problem that Ombudsman faces here is that he has yet to meet a contender of the calibre of Daryz, winner of last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Well, that isn’t strictly true, as the unfancied Daryz was well behind Ombudsman in the International Stakes at York last summer, with Francis-Henri Graffard’s charge seeming to find the step up to Group 1 company too much after wins in four lesser races since making a belated debut in April last year.

If that defeat seemed to burst Daryz’s bubble in the minds of some pundits, they might have been nodding to themselves when he was beaten again by Croix du Nord in the Group 3 Prix du Prince d’Orange at Longchamp in September; but others sat up and took notice, seeing an improved effort even in defeat and noting that the fast-finishing Daryz would have won in a couple more strides and would have learned plenty from the experience. His supporters had plenty to cheer about when a more battle-hardened Daryz showed up for the Arc and turned the tables in no uncertain terms to prove himself to be a genuine superstar, catching Minnie Hauk with a strong late run and pulling 5½ lengths clear of the field as the pair battled it out.

That was a big improvement from Daryz, and one which could have been put down to the emphasis on stamina given it was his first try at 1½m, so it’s been noteworthy that he has been imperious in two Group 1 wins this season while stepping back in trip, winning the Prix Ganay (1m2½f) by 3½ lengths before scoring by the same margin in the Prix Aga Khan IV (formerly Prix d’Ispahan) when dropped to an extended 1m1f. I was with him in the Arc on the basis that he would be suited by the trip, but I must say he has taken a big leap forward in my estimation, looking to have the measure of his rivals in the Ganay and the Ispahan before unleashing a devastating late kick.

He’s neither a one-dimensional stayer nor a mudlark – Timeform have the going as good for his Ganay win and only a little slower for the Ispahan, and his wins this season have set a remarkable precedent. In the last century, no three-year-old has won the Arc and then gone on to do the Ganay/Ispahan double despite the prestige of those races, and that’s largely because most Arc winners tend to get a little slower with age, or at least better suited to 1½m than shorter; but Daryz is that absolute rarity – a top class middle-distance performer who is getting quicker with age.

*For the record, the Arc/Ganay/Ispahan treble had only previously been completed by two outstanding horses: Sagace (who won the Arc as a four-year-old and took the other pair of races the following season) and Allez France (second in the Arc at three before landing the Ganay/Ispahan/Arc treble the following season).

The prospect of “firm” in the going description is the one unknown for Daryz, but while it’s easy to suggest he’s best on ground softer than good, that is partly down to the fact that French going descriptions almost always err on the soft side. It’s very possible that he might prove even better on quick ground – that is certainly the case for stablemate Calandagan despite that horse’s early wins coming on softer, while Daryz’s most talented half-brother, Dariyan, won the Prix Ganay on ground that Timeform described as good-to-firm. Their dam, Daryakana, also gained her biggest success when beating Spanish Moon on a sound surface in the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase, so I think ground concerns could well be wide of the mark.

Suggestion: Back Daryz at 2/1

 

Tix Pointers: It's been very close between the four- and five-year-olds since 2013, younger leading 7-6 in wins and 22-9 in win/places... but the junior cohort was much more strongly represented. Looking instead at percentages, which we must, fives beat fours 20.7% to 13.5% on the win angle; but fours beat fives 42% to 31% on win/place, and 56% to 53% on PRB.

Six-year-olds and up were 0 from 18, two places, and a lamentable 11% PRB.

One of the top pair in the market has made the frame every year since 2003.

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5.00 THE ROYAL HUNT CUP (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by Sam Darby

It feels like it’s always said you want a high drawn hold up horse for races like this, but is that backed up by historical data?



There is no clear advantage from the above, so we need to dig a bit deeper.

 



This is a bit more insightful.

The top seven stalls, based on PRB3, are all 17 or higher, with four of those being no lower than 24.

Looking solely at the last ten renewals of this race, five were won by stall 21 or higher, but three have been won by 7 or lower. This doesn’t necessarily prove that no draw bias exists, but it does suggest that the draw bias can change from year to year.

The strange thing about the Ascot straight course is that you can be sure a certain side is favoured, and then in the next race, or on the next day, the complete opposite appears to be the case.

Last year is a good example of this. In the 2025 Royal Hunt Cup, the 1st and 4th were drawn 32 and 30 respectively, whilst the 2nd, 3rd and 5th were drawn in the three lowest stalls. Then in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f) the next day, the first six home were all drawn 25 or higher. So on the Wednesday extreme draws were favoured (either side) and on Thursday you absolutely had to be on the stands’ side rail.

You can go poor very quickly trying to focus on the draw too much in straight course races here, but a very high draw is rarely a big negative.

As for pace, the above image shows that wherever you are drawn, being delivered late is a pretty hefty advantage.



It’s always important to analyse the pace map, too. It’s very interesting that many of the early pace angles here seem to be clustered around the middle, with Linwood (16) the most likely front runner and One Smack Mack (13) and Archivist (18) other possibilities. This further muddies the draw waters, as the pace setters might come up the middle, or they could go either side from those draws.

From the lower draws, I think the market is correct in making La Botte and Indalo the two most interesting contenders. The former was runner up in last year’s Britannia off just a few pounds lower and since a poor run in the Lincoln, it looks to me as though connections have been looking after his mark for this.

As for Indalo, he’s been amazingly consistent and has proven himself in some of the biggest cavalry charges, so his credentials are pretty solid.

With the pace setup as it is, I can’t rule out the middle draws, and the one I’d be interested in is Irish challenger Jagged Edge. He’s won his last three starts at this trip, was hugely impressive when winning last time out and he’s another with a favourable run style.

From the high draws I really like the look of Blue Brother, but as first reserve he needs one to come out so he can get a run. He was a massive eye-catcher in this race twelve months ago, when getting no run throughout, and having not run since he’s back off the same mark.

Rogue Diplomat is one of only two horses drawn higher than Blue Brother and he’s assured of a run. He ran very well against a draw and pace bias in the Spring Cup at Newbury and can probably be forgiven a lesser effort since in France. I do think he might want a bit more juice in the ground, but I’ve seen plenty of horses that enjoy cut run well on fast ground on this straight course.

So that’s five horses on my shortlist, which is too many to back.

Suggestion
I definitely want to have JAGGED EDGE (16/1) on my side. He’s gone up 9lbs for his latest win, but I don’t see many ‘potential group horses in a handicap’ in the field, and he definitely looks like he could be one. Stalls 15 and 11 have won this in the past six years so he has a massive chance as long as it’s not like last year’s race where you have to be very high or very low. I hope the positioning of the early pace stops that from happening.

If BLUE BROTHER (12/1) gets a run, he’s the other one I want to back, but assuming he doesn’t get in I’d take a chance on ROGUE DIPLOMAT at the prices (20/1) as my second bet. The handicapper has struggled to get a hold of him as he often only just does enough, and his Spring Cup run, which has worked out well, was eye-catching enough. The ground wasn’t exactly slow that day either.

Any of these could turn out to be badly drawn once the race is run, so I’d be keeping stakes win only, despite bookies paying plenty of places. With that in mind, I’m sure you’ll get even better prices on the day on the Exchanges.

I’ll have to leave the low draws. If it’s evident the far side is favoured before this race is run, you’d hope Jagged Edge could tack over from 15 to give us a chance.

 

Tix Pointers: It usually pays to focus away from the top of the weights and on more lightly raced four-year-olds, ideally held up for a late run. It is a very, very tricky race though, where spreading out seems the only way to go.

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5.35 THE KENSINGTON PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Fillies' Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

The Kensington Palace is a 1-mile handicap open to four-year-olds and upwards for fillies and mares only. It is a relatively new race for the meeting, inaugurated in 2021. In terms of trends, then, with only five renewals there aren’t really enough races to have built up firm patterns; and for the first three years the contest was run on the round course, with only the last two on the straight course. The two straight course races have both shown a high to middle draw bias so it will be interesting to see what happens today. One trainer has done well from a small sample, that being Ralph Beckett. He has saddled four runners from which he had one winner and two others placed.

The pace map for the race looks like this:

 

 

Here are some of the main contenders:

Radiant Beauty – four wins out of her last seven runs including a very decent win over course and distance last time on 9th May. Won that from the front and generally runs close to or up with the pace. Has gone up 6lb for that run but her revised mark does not look insurmountable. Drawn 14.

Alobayyah – trained by William Haggas and was an impressive winner on debut on soft ground at Yarmouth in the Autumn of 2024. Her 3yo year was disappointing but she was a real eyecatcher last time when third over course and distance to Radiant Beauty, finishing very strongly after being given too much to do. If she comes on for that run, she will be a big player. Drawn 16.

Stateira – a four-time winner from ten starts with three wins from her last five. Stateira is the highest rated runner in the race having been raised 27lbs since November, and it could be tough carrying that much weight. Drawn 13.

Zgharta – was disappointing at Ascot last time in the race already mentioned won by Radiant Beauty. She was well beaten in sixth that day despite being favourite but looks feasibly weighted if she can put that run behind her. It's interesting that Oisin Murphy remains on board given another runner from the Balding yard he would be eligible to ride. Draw 6 is possibly not ideal.

All Moonshine – yet to race on the turf but has been super impressive on the all weather. Third on debut and three wins on the bounce since. It is difficult to predict how she will perform on the turf for the first time especially having not been seen since February, but Andrew Balding is respected and is one to consider. Jason Watson rides after Oisin opted for Zgharta. Drawn 12.

Song N Dance – yet another horse from the Ascot race won by Radiant Beauty, Song N Dance finishing second. Ridden by the excellent Saffie Osborne and could have a good draw in 19. Looks slightly better value than some of the other horses that contested that Ascot race.

 

Suggestion: Most of the horses at or near the head of the betting are drawn in the middle (stalls 12 to 16). In races like this I tend to split stakes and at least back two, sometimes three if bigger prices. However, I am drawn here to the top section of the market and therefore I am sticking with one and that is 11/1 Song N Dance.  She looks a bigger price than she should be. Back each way with as many places as you can get.

 

Tix Pointers: Only two of the 23 mares aged 5+ have placed; the other 18 places in this race's five year history were taken by four-year-olds (a cohort which dominate entries annually).

The shortest priced winner was 10/1 (5th favourite) and no placed horse has returned shorter than 13/2 so it's tricky again. Keep some powder dry for these last two legs!

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6.10 THE WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Much to the frustration of some - notably 2021 and 2025 winning trainer Eve Johnson Houghton, though she was far from alone - the Windsor Castle has seen its distance increase from five to six furlongs but, more materially, with a condition that eligibility is only to those whose sire won over seven furlongs-plus as a juvenile or a mile and up at three. None of those flashy pure speed types here, then...

A look at the represented stallions make for odd reading, to be sure. In place of Ardad and Blue Point are the likes of Dubawi, Wootton Bassett and, slightly hilariously, Cracksman. The one sire amongst the entries that makes most sense on traditional readings of such things is Kodi Bear, a getter of legion swift juvies. Unhelpfully, though not unsurprisingly, he is responsible for more runners - four - than any other stallion in the lineup.

Let's kick off with the massive-priced Troublesome Guest, then. A daughter of Kodi, obvs, she made a lovely debut in a valuable novice event at Newmarket a month ago. Drawn very high, as with very low presumed a help, she'd be a dream result for two of the wiliest old hands in town, Messrs Margarson and Egan Sr. I hope she runs very well for them - and can actually see her outperforming her price, too.

Staying high, the Territories colt Ruler's Control moves from a win over five on heavy to six on good to firm. The way he travelled through the race gives hope that he'll have no bother in this melting pot setup and he's another Joseph runner with prospects.

On the other side of the track, favourite Sergei Diaghilev has box two. Trained by Aidan O'Brien - four from 11 with 6f 2yos, two more placed, in the past four Royal Ascots - and ridden by Ryan Moore, the pair have form in that context of 41120119. A son of Wootton Bassett out of a Galileo mare he is a Coolmore archetype, and he justified odds of 4/6 when taking a six furlong Curragh maiden (good) three and a half weeks ago. Assuming low is a fair place to be, he looks certain to go well.

Down the middle - ish - is Controlla, a daughter of Night Of Thunder who started out in stakes company, narrowly failing to reel in the leader in a Naas Group 3. She was a 25/1 chance that day and has demonstrable class as well as the sort of speed and stamina combination needed to get competitively to the line in a race like this. Like Troublesome Guest, she gets a five pound concession from the colts.

Middleham Park Racing have been at it a while now and they know very well what they're about. Two runners here, with two of the foremost trainers of juveniles - including at the Royal meeting - in Archie Watson and Clive Cox. Archie sends Alpe d'Huez, for whom it was all downhill (geddit?) in the Woodcote at Epsom last time. This son of Kodi Bear was staying on at the finish at the Derby meeting and ought to appreciate this stiffer test.

I think Clive Cox could be the best trainer of juvenile sprinters in Britain and we get to test that theory with Boleto, another Wootton Bassett, who did plenty wrong on debut at Pontefract a fortnight ago but still got up under a cute Callum Rodriguez ride. This lad needs to step forward a bundle and probably doesn't have a brilliant draw either, but in Clive and CalRod we can trust.

Lots of others with some sort of a chance that I find it very hard to quantify.

Selection: I'm mainly staying close to the top of the market here. Huge respect for Sergei Diaghalev who may just win, but 5/2 or so in a field of 25 feels wrong. It may not be, of course! Controlla looks a pretty fair each way alternative at 4/1. She brings the best form, though has nothing with which to back it up, and she could be smart. Interesting that connections opted for the newly extended Norfolk against the boys rather than the fillies only Albany at the same trip. In the long grass - the very long grass - are 20/1 Boleto and 66/1 Troublesome Guest, both of which are wildly speculative and should be staked commensurately!

 

That's Day 2, then. Mostly really tricky, on paper at least. Best of luck wth your Wednesday wagers and we'll be back for Ladies' Day tomorrow.

- Matt

Royal Ascot 2026: Day One Preview, Tips

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Royal Ascot 2026: Day One Preview, Trends, Tips

For most flat enthusiasts, it's the best week of the racing calendar as five days of elite action unfold in the presence of royalty at the 2026 Royal Ascot festival.

There are plenty of domestic runners from the pointiest part of the ability pyramid, alongside a select smattering of international players and a veritable glut of young, unexposed could-be-anythings. Yes, it will be an exciting sensory overload and punting will not generally be straightforward; but winners, where they're found, are likely to reward well. So let's see if we can't shine a light on two or three.

I have enlisted some expert support in previewing the racing from Dave Renham, David Massey, Rory Delargy, Gavin Priestley and Sam Darby, all familiar names to long-term readers of the blog and, crucially, all great judges with their own approaches to solving the puzzle. To round out each day's septet of previews, and as editor across all content, you're lumbered with me, I'm afraid.

To Tuesday, Day 1 of Royal Ascot, then, a perennial feast of Group 1 action, kicking off as tradition dictates with the Queen Anne Stakes, a straight mile G1 race for older horses.

 

Side note 1: you can also check out our full Royal Ascot Tuesday trends page here.

Side note 2: we've got a free £50 Tix competition every day. Bet £5 or more into the placepot/jackpot pools via Tix and, if you played the highest ROI ticket on the day, you'll get an extra £50 - on top of the 5% bonus paid to ALL winning bets placed through Tix. Click here to take part

 

Our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race
(*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).

 

 

Royal Ascot Day 1 Going/Weather News

The going for day one of Royal Ascot, Tuesday 16th June, is: Good to Firm. 

GoingStick at 8.30am:

Stands’ side: 8.6

Centre: 8.6

Far side: 8.3

Round: 7.6

Stalls:
Straight Course: centre
Round Course: inside 

Rail movements:
The rail on the Round Course will be positioned approximately 4yds out from approximately 9f out to the home straight. This will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.

4.20pm +7 yards (approximately)
5.00pm +14 yards (approximately)
5.35pm +14 yards (approximately)
6.10pm +14 yards (approximately) 

Weather:
Dry overnight to Tuesday morning. 0.4mm rain on Monday. 5mm rain recorded through the past 7 days to Tuesday. Dry, warm day is forecast. It is forecast to be generally dry through the week, with an occasional light shower possible on Wednesday and Friday. Max temp expected to be between 22 and 26 to Thursday when they could increase further.

 

2.30 THE QUEEN ANNE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Dave Renham

A few race trends for the last 15 years of this four-year-olds and upwards mile Group 1 contest:

Age

4yos recorded 11 wins from 83 runners (13.3%); 31% placed.

5yo have had 3 wins from 58 runners (5.2%); 22% placed.

6yo and up had just 1 win from 36 runners (2.8%); 11% placed.

4yos have provided the most runners albeit from the biggest sample. However, their win strike rate is comfortably the best and their placed performance has also been best.

Market factors

8 wins for favourites, four of which started odds on

Horses priced 11/8 or shorter have won 7 races from just 9 qualifiers. To BSP backing all such runners would have yielded a 40p in the £ profit.

However, since 2018 there have been four big-priced winners – two at 33/1 and two at 14/1.

Course form

Course winners secured 10 wins from 58 runners (17.2%) with 36% placed.

Those without a course win had 5 wins from 119 runners (4.2%) with 18% placed.

A win at the course has definitely been a strong positive over the past 15 years.

Course LTO

9 winners ran LTO at Newbury from 68 runners (13.2%) with almost all of them (65) having raced in the Lockinge. Hence, the Lockinge has been by far the best trial for this contest in recent years, and backing ALL runners blind who ran in the Lockinge LTO would have produced returns just under 50 pence in the £.

Race Class LTO

12 of the last 15 winners raced in a Group 1 race LTO. LTO Group 1 runners have provided roughly 55% of the total runners in the race and 80% of the winners.

Career win percentage

British or Irish runners with career win percentage of 60% or more provided 7 winners from just 22 runners.

 

Queen Anne Stakes Pace Map

 

Before we look at some of the leading players, we can see there is not much pace on here, with only one of the nine horses, OperaBallo, having led in one of his last four starts, and he did that just once. Hence, this could be run at a false pace, which often complicates matters somewhat.

 

This year’s contenders

Notable Speech – fourth in the race last year where things didn’t go to plan. He pulled hard that day, was short of room at the 2-furlong pole, then lost ground going sharply right before the jockey dropped his whip. He was beaten just over two lengths. A year later he comes here as favourite having been in very good form recently, winning three of out his last four races, including the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Lockinge. He is trained by Charlie Appleby and clearly has a strong chance. The slight concern is that he has not been seen at his best at this venue.

Docklands – did this column a huge favour last year having been tipped up each way at 25/1 in the morning. He loves Ascot's straight mile with his record reading three wins, three seconds, a third, and a close-up fourth of 16. Despite now being six, he looks as good as ever based on his two runs this year – a Listed win at Doncaster in March and then an excellent third at Sha Tin in the Group 1 FWD Champion’s mile in April. The only slight negative is that he has a few pounds to find with Notable Speech on Official Ratings. The lack of pace in the race shouldn’t be a problem as last year they went off quite slow and that did not inconvenience him.

Opera Ballo – the second string from the Appleby yard but a leading contender. A regular winner having taken seven of his nine career starts. He won the Bet365 mile at Sandown last time and is joint highest rated in the field with Notable Speech on 125.

More Thunder – This time last year he was running in the Wokingham handicap at the Royal meeting but has since progressed to Group 1 level, finishing second last time to Notable Speech in the Lockinge. He struggled to lay up with the pace early then and gave himself too much to do; if he can sit more handily this time his chance increases, which if the pace map is anything to go by he should be able to do. Further, that was his first run of the season so we can expect him to come on for that.

 

Suggestion: Notable Speech looks the one based on recent form, but at the prices I’m happy to split a point between two against him with More Thunder and Docklands.

 

Tix Pointers: The favourite has placed in seven of the last 10 years.

However, in 2018 (15 ran) the result was 33/1, 10/1 (4th fav), 20/1; and in 2019 (16 ran) we had 14/1 (co 6th fav of 3), 20/1, 20/1.

Four- and five-year-olds have won 12 of the last 13 renewals.

Older horses are 1 from 32 with a PRB of only 37% during that time. Four-year-olds have by far the best record.

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3.05 THE COVENTRY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

Trends

17 of the last 18 winners had won their last start.
17 of the last 18 winners had won a race at Class 4 or higher.
All of the last 18 winners had their previous run in a Class 4 race or higher race.
15 of the last 18 winners were unbeaten over 6f.
16 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd favourite on their last run.
16 of the last 18 winners had run 1 or 2 times.
14 of the last 18 winners were unbeaten coming into the race.
13 of the last 15 British trained winners had their previous run over 6f. 

 

Race Analysis

If we look for one or two runs and a win last time out we can reduce the field by half and then by removing those that weren't well fancied in the betting last time we can lose a couple more. That gives us a nice shortlist to look through.

Archie Watson won the Coventry in 2022 and on the whole his runners have run well in this race (although all three of his runners last year were unplaced - best performance was 6th at 100/1). If we simply concentrate on his runners that had had just one run, over 6f on the turf which they had won, we see that these types have finished 31220. That's a winner at 8/1 and places at 40/1, 20/1 and 6/1.

Following the same trainer didn't work out for us last year but I'm going to give him another try as his sole entry SIOUXPERB looked very promising when skating home on his debut by four lengths at Yarmouth as the well fancied 4/6 favourite. The Yarmouth race was run on similar ground to what he'll encounter here and the form has been advertised since with the second home, who was a further three lengths clear of the rest of the field, going on to win his next two starts. Those two wins included a decent looking class 2 Novice event at Newmarket last time out which he won by more than three lengths under a 6lb penalty.

His form looks sound and if able to post a similar performance it should give him excellent each way chances.

 

Suggestion: SIOUXPERB 1pt EW 14/1 (4 places)

 

 

Tix Pointers: Aidan O'Brien has won with four of the five winning favourites in the past decade.

During that period, the fav placed only five times with two second favs hitting the board in the other five.

Of the remaining trio of Coventry's, it's been a random number generator of a podium: 2017 saw 11/1, 33/1, 8/1 (jt 3rd fav); in 2021, it was 11/1 (jt 6th fav), 66/1, 25/1; and in 2024 the impossible 80/1, 40/1 (jt 15th fav!), 66/1.

It might be worth playing a few tickets with the some wildness here.

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3.40 THE KING CHARLES III STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Rory Delargy

A huge field means the draw will surely influence the result and that’s much the same as last year when stalls 14-17 filled the first four spots in a 20-runner affair (three of the last four spots went to stalls 19-21, for balance, so it’s not simply a case of higher is better, but that smart horses drawn together can help each other in straight-track races).

Last year’s winner American Affair is a great starting point as he was drawn 16 last year and now has an eye-catching berth in stall 18, with speedsters Big Mojo and favourite Overpass on either side. In terms of overall pace, the presence in high stalls of speedy sorts Jakajaro and Mission Central helps fill out the pace profile of the high-drawn group, and it will be a surprise if that speed does not hold up throughout the race.

Not only does American Affair find himself drawn where the best of the pace is in the King Charles III, but we already know he’s best when asked to come late off such a strong pace, so having genuine contenders to set the race up for him means he can have no excuse. He will, in truth, need to be at least as good as he was last year to prevail, and he’s easily forgiven a rare below-par run in the Minster Stakes at York. Jim Goldie has long been a master at getting his sprinters to retain their form well beyond the first flush of youth.

In terms of dangers, there are several obvious ones, with Big Mojo and Overpass unlikely to roll over even if getting involved in a strong gallop. The latter has done much of his running in Australia over 6f, giving the impression that a stiff five might be his perfect scenario at a track like Ascot. His presence on the stands flank counts against those early pacers around him who need to dominate, but if they go very hard then there are some among the lower stalls who will be finishing strongly.

My pick of that half of the field is last year’s Commonwealth Cup heroine Time For Sandals, who will relish a strongly run five here and will be doing good late work. She’s another who can be forgiven her modest run in the Minster Stakes, with 6f on softish ground blunting her speed, especially when short of peak fitness. She appeals as the value danger, and indeed for exotics, while outsider Behike is another for that list having made a big impression at Lingfield. He is very much in the “could be anything” category, and is sure to do better still, for all Newmarket or Goodwood later in the summer may be more appropriate.

Suggestion: 1pt e/w American Affair @ 8/1 (Coral – 5 places; 7/1 & 15/2 general)

 

Tix Pointers: Only Battaash upheld the honour of market leaders since 2013.

In spite of that, the fav and/or second fav has hit the frame in nine of the last ten years; last year, however, it was 11/1, 28/1, 9/1 (3rd fav).

Five-year-olds and up have a very good record in the race (note the PRB stats).

 

 

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4.20 THE ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Never mind the width, feel the quality... a short field of six for this year's St James's Palace Stakes, the usual rendez-vous point of European Guineas winners. The winners of the English and Irish 2000 Guineas are in attendance, so too the beaten favourite in the French version, but the Poulains victor is a late absentee having caught a cold (or some such) at the weekend. Pity.

No matter, though, because in Bow Echo and Gstaad we have a proper match, with a couple of spicy curve balls in play to boot.

Both the aforementioned graced Newmarket's 2000 Guineas in early May, Bow Echo charging clear of Gstaad by most of three lengths - fully eight lengths back to the third - to stretch his unbeaten run to four in the manner of a generational talent. If that sounds hyperbolic, it might yet be; but the ratings guys fell of their perches with excitement at what they witnessed. Timeform went 131, Racing Post Ratings plumped for 127 and the BHA, racing's official scorer, went 126. These were the best, or joint best, ratings since Frankel's electric performance in the race in 2011.

Gstaad, for his part, franked the form emphatically when coming three lengths clear in the Irish 2000 Guineas three weeks later.

If there is a problem, and there may not be, it's that the depth of both races is highly questionable. Prior the Newmarket race, pundits and ratings outlets alike were decrying the absence of star quality; and when Gstaad lined at the Curragh he was 4/11 favourite, with the only credible rival on market telling (Distant Storm, the distant third horse from Newmarket) running up, against at a respectful distance. The fifth, seventh and ninth from Newmarket have been well beaten since, though the 11th placed horse did win next time out... in a Class 4 handicap at Kempton.

If the form has the substance the ratings lads say it does, Bow Echo ought to win on all known evidence. But if it's been overrated by flattering defeats of sub-standard horses then the door is just ever so slightly ajar for a runner with a different profile. The obvious one on that score is Puerto Rico, whose juvenile level was solid and who disappointed connections in Paris in their Guineas. Still, he did finish fourth that day shaping as though he'd come on for the run: he was handy enough but just got outpaced before staying on at the one pace. The quick ground is an unknown but he was a dual Group 1 winners as a two-year-old (both in France, both very soft going).

Less exposed but more left field and with more to find is Talk Of New York, a four-time raced triple winner. Having started with a five length romp at Kempton he fell slightly short when taking on the Jumeirah 2000 Guineas in Meydan in late February. After that came a three-length score at Newmarket in conditions company before an impressive five length rout in the Heron Stakes, Listed, at Sandown nigh on three weeks ago. That was a progressive effort and, like the favourite, he's got more scope than the rest to again step forward; but perhaps that's fully reflected in current quotes of 9/2.

As a 2yo G1 winner Power Blue deserves a mention. He could be ridden from the front in a race where, unless Puerto Rico is sent on for Ballydoyle, there would be no obvious pace contention; and, with that sprint speed in his corner, he might offer a run for tiny stakes on this turning track - but it's still a very long climb to the line when the fuel gauge is in the red zone.

It'll be a nice day out for the new training partnership of Ismail Mohammed and Jose Santos with their lad, Lord Britain.

Suggestion: I think it's very likely that Bow Echo reasserts his class, but if there's a bet it might be a small 'without the favourite' stab at Puerto Rico whose juvenile form was close to Gstaad's and better than Bow Echo's.

Try Puerto Rico without the favourite for pennies, or perhaps a Bow Echo/Puerto Rico forecast (pays 10.8 with bet365 as I write).

 

Tix Pointers: Ten of the last 13 winners returned first or second favourite. Of the remaining three, two were third choice, and the jolly was placed behind 10/1 Circus Maximus in 2019.

Potential banker race?

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5.00 THE ASCOT STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Sam Darby

I do love these extreme distance handicaps, even if they are arguably just as unpredictable as races over the minimum trip.

Before I get stuck into the form, we need to have a look at possible draw and pace angles. At the very least they should tell us which horses are most/least likely to be favoured, even if the data can’t be used to completely rule anything out.


The quick takeaway from the above is that early leaders tend to not do brilliantly (judging by the PRB of 0.36) whilst there isn’t much between the other run styles.

As for this particular race, it looks unlikely to be a gruelling contest with very little early pace on offer. Ismahane is pretty much the only front runner or prominent racer in the field, so I can see this being steadily run and tactical.

That’s not only bad news for those likely to be dropped out early on (and there are a few of those), but I can also see this being an extremely rough race turning for home. A steady pace means a very well grouped field and there are sure to be plenty of hard luck stories, especially with those that get locked in on the rail.

That brings me on to the draw data here.

 


 

These races are rare, so there isn’t a massive sample size, but the data point towards higher draws being slightly disadvantaged - not a great shock over such a distance on a round course.

Perhaps the most telling insight comes from the draw and pace combination data. Again, it's not a huge sample size but it looks as though non extreme rides are great for low drawn runners and patient rides are best for those drawn middle to high.

Given the likely pace set up for this race, I’m not massively keen on those likely to be held up so a low draw and prominent ride might be the recipe for success.

As for the form book, in a ‘fair’ race the two I’d be most interested in would be Reaching High and Beylerbeyi.

Reaching High was well backed for this last year but he never got any sort of run at any stage and he was one of the most unlucky horses at the meeting. He hasn’t run since, so it’s pretty evident he’s been put away to win this race off the same mark. I have two issues with him, though, and they are his price (around 9/4) and, related, the chance he’s unlucky once again. I’d be getting him prominent from stall 8 to give him the best possible chance but I think you’ll find more likely winners at this price at the likes of Ripon and Hamilton this week, so I wouldn't be interested in backing him just to try to get a Royal Ascot winner at any cost.

As for Beylerbeyi, you only need to watch his winter runs on the all weather over inadequate trips, off this sort of mark, to know he’s a well handicapped horse. My worry with him is that he’ll be dropped out from stall 16 and he wants a decent gallop to aim at, which might leave him inconvenienced here. He’s halved in price since the final decs and whilst he’s another possible winner, I think the likely disadvantage provided by the run of the race is enough to make me reluctantly overlook him.

Simply put, I want a horse who might be able to pinch a bit of an advantage. It’s not easy to predict what will slot in behind Ismahane, the likely front runner, but Kizlyar and Glenroyal may be seen to best effect.

Kizlyar won a relatively uncompetitive race in Ireland last time out, but the 2nd and 3rd have finished 2nd and 1st since. He doesn’t have too many ground question marks (often a worry for some of the Irish runners in this) and seems to have a nice mix of speed and stamina.

If you can throw out a poor run at Galway last year when turned out again within 24 hours of winning, Glenroyal has effectively won his last three races on the flat. He’s got quite a bit to prove in terms of stamina in the form book, but he’s a full brother to an Irish Cesarewitch winner and a half brother to a winner of this race and it should aid his chance if this becomes a relative speed test for the trip.

I think it’s impossible to be confident about the Ascot Stakes as a betting race, but in terms of value I’d be backing Kizlyar at around 16/1 and Glenroyal at around 20/1 (both win only, there are enough question marks to put me off the place market). Reaching High has a really obvious chance, especially if able to get a good early position, and I’ll be kicking myself if Beylerbeyi wins but I just can’t back him in this sadly.

 

Suggestion: Split a point between 14/1 Kizlyar and 16/1 Glenroyal.

 

Tix Pointers: In 2015 and 2017 Ryan rode the winner for Willie - both returned fav. No other market leader has won since 2002!

Nine of the 13 winners were aged 6+, though placed percentages are a lot more evenly spread.

Willie hasn't won since 2018, and Ian Willie-ams (sorry) has claimed two prizes since then. Williams and Alan King (as well as the unrepresented this year Hughie Morrison) are the UK trainers on which to focus. Joseph O'Brien ran one (unplaced) in the 2024 Ascot Stakes; five (including 2nd 16/1, 3rd 33/1 and 4th 25/1) last year; and saddles seven this time!

Nevertheless, the worst market rank performance in the past decade was a fourth choice making the frame... until last year when the result was 20/1, 16/1 (6th fav), 33/1, 25/1 - as mentioned three of which were Joseph's, though that doesn't help much this year.

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5.35 THE WOLFERTON STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Run as a handicap until 2017, the Wolferton is one of the trappier races at the Royal meeting. Two years ago, Israr won and returned 11/4 favourite; he was the first since Mahsoob in 2015 and, therefore, the first of the non-handicap era. Roger Varian has two wins since 2020 and John (now with son Thady) Gosden has enjoyed five wins and five places from 21 starters. Both are represented this year.

The specific race conditions - that no horse shall have won a G1 or G2 since at least the previous August - makes it one of the few races not for progressive animals; that of course makes it more inscrutable, not less.

Although horses have won from very wide, five of the eight non-handicap winners were drawn 7 or lower. As the PRB3 (average percent of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours) chart clearly outlines, inside is better all other things equal.

 

 

One thing I did notice when reviewing the run style of placed horses will probably become apparent to you when I share the following string: MMHMMMMHMLMPMMMMMMPHMHMLMPPMMPMM

All eight winners raced midfield and, as you can see, most of the placed horses did, too. The inference, borne out by the victors' odds and doubtless painful memory, too, if you habitually play this race, is that hard luck stories abound and it is very often the best trip that wins. That, clearly, makes life difficult.

Roger runs Enfjaar, a six-year-old with limited mileage. This lad ran fourth in the race last year when enduring a troubled passage from an inside stall. Trap seven is fine and, though he's older than probably ideal, this will have been a clear plan and he comes here off a lovely prep in a similar grade at Goodwood four weeks ago.

The Gosdens run Nahraan, unbeaten in three UK starts and third in a Group 3 in France last September. He lacks a run this season, which is a small negative, but the team know what they're doing (duh) so he can be expected to be plenty fit enough. I'm far from convinced by his form, however, for all that he retains obvious upside.

Last year's winner, Haatem, has an obvious chance again. Drawn 2, we know conditions suit and he backed up his Wolferton score with a good third in the Summer Mile over a trip shy of optimal. Given what looked an obvious sighter in the same Goodwood race contested by Enfjaar last time, he's a Wathnan wunner with weal pwospects.

Another string to the Wathnan Wolferton (enough with the W alliter-wation alweady!) bow is King's Gambit, third in the race a year ago. He ran a nice race from an unpromising position at Newmarket on his '26 debut before blowing out completely at Chester three weeks later. That was a too bad to be true effort but his typically held up run style may be suboptimal with so many mid-pack runners with gear changes ahead of him. No better man than Jamie for this gig, for all that the straight track is his muse.

Charlie saddles a couple at prices that look the types to be competitive in a race like this. The first is Ancient Wisdom, who will don first time cheekpieces in his quest to convert some consistent Pattern level form into a win. He'd probably prefer a bit more juice in the ground though he did win his novice on good to firm back in 2023. He's run 222 at ten furlongs, in G2, Listed and G3 company, and he'll probably settle midfield and hope for the gaps from stall 3. Billy Loughnane will be steering.

William Buick opts for Arabian Light, fourth in the Brigadier Gerard (G3) on his UK seasonal debut. He ran on well there having never been put in the race after missing the kick, and does have some solid upgrade figures to get him out of any pockets after the home turn.

The filly Survie is interesting. Although there are plenty of options for her sex, connections have opted to take on the fellas and Ryan will ride for connections of connections (Mrs Doreen Tabor, no less). She - Survie, not Mrs Tabor - has been mixing it in the best company: in the past twelve months she's run third in the Pretty Polly, second in the Prix Jean Romanet, fourth in the Prix Vermeille and third in the Neom Turf Cup in Saudi Arabia - all of those Group 1 races.

This is a sizeable step down then, though she was a well beaten third in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket when last seen. There was also a stable switch at the turn of the year - from Nicolas Clement to George Boughey - and this former G2 winner and multi-G1 placer has a class edge if she's, erm, man enough against males. There is a slight question mark about the ground, too; her best form is with some cut and that last day clunk was on similarly good to firm terrain as she'll encounter here. If not for that, I'd have fancied her chances.

It pays to respect anything Francis-Henri Graffard brings over, but Map Of Stars has looked decidedly out of sorts since running well in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes over the same course and distance at last year's Royal meeting. Similar respect comments apply to Joseph O'Brien runners - he seems to be operating at another level this campaign - but his pair have car parked in 14 and 15 of 16 which greatly tempers enthusiasm.

I'm not seeing the case for making Wimbledon Hawkeye a single figure price even if it was a badly needed prep race last time. It could be argued that his best form is over ten furlongs on quick ground, so there's that; but it's not easy to see him reversing Sandown form with Arabian Light, particularly from stall 13. Not without a chance but looks short enough to my eye.

Ditto Ghostwriter, making his debut for Kevin Philippart de Foy and his first run since last year's Royal Ascot when he was third in the Hardwicke (1m4f G2). He has back class and this looks his trip, but it'll be a heck of a training performance after 360 days off the course.

Suggestion: As you'll have gathered it's a messy old race. I'm going to split a small stake three ways: I do quite like Arabian Light (20/1 Coral) and expect he'll step considerably forward from his prep run. I also feel like Enfjaar (12/1 Coral) has a chance to redeem a difficult transit a year prior, and I can't resist a tiny bit on Survie (14/1 Hills) despite the going concerns. Very far from confident with any of those, it should be said.

 

Tix Pointers: Only two winning favourites and one second pick since 2013.

However, nine and a half jollies have hit the frame, the wrong joint fav for placepot purposes placing in 2024.

They were joined by two second picks, a third choice and two fourth in. Probably still need to spread out a little in the 'lucky last'...

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6.10 THE COPPER HORSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by David Massey

When I watched Klassleader beat Sing Us A Song in the Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap at York last month I was convinced I’d seen a very strong piece of handicap form, much as I had when I witnessed Merchant winning a similarly competitive York handicap the season before. William Haggas loves sending these potential blots to York - we saw another at the weekend with Extremely Zain - and the form from those races almost always works out well.

So whilst we aren’t seeing Klassleader here (and I'd not be shocked if his next outing was in Group company) we do get Sing Us A Song, and I make him the one to beat. He needed his first run of the season at Epsom when third to Night Breeze in the Metropolitan, the track possibly not suiting him either, and showed the benefits of that when going to York last month. He made a lot of the running there, doing plenty of the donkey work and never given a moment’s peace from Will Scarlet on the front; when you think that, at the line, Will Scarlet was some 17 lengths behind Sing Us A Song, it shows what an excellent shift the latter put in. He’s probably been beaten by a very good horse and the 2lb rise he got for that looks lenient to my eyes. James McDonald takes the ride here.

That’s because James Doyle jumps Wathnan ship to their other contender, Valiancy, who is the Haggas representative. He did nothing but improve as a 3yo, and started this season on the right foot, successful over 13f at Hamilton and barely coming off the bridle to win. He was put up 8lb for that, which looks fair, but if you think James Doyle never chooses the wrong Wathnan one, you only have to go back a year to recall Fallen Angel finishing third to Crimson Advocate in the Duke Of Cambridge to find some evidence of that. McDonald was the beneficiary that day so, with apologies to the Doyler, here’s hoping history repeats itself…

I will be having a saver - and a reverse forecast - with Daiquiri Bay though, because if he wins, having convinced myself there’s a big 14f handicap in him for over a year now, it might just ruin my week. I somewhat fell for him after he won at Chester last year, amazed that one his size was able to handle the Roodee's tight turns as well as he did, and when he turned up in the King George V Stakes here last year, was sure he was going to run a big race. Eighth doesn’t tell you how well he actually ran, the trip just looking on the short side, and a third in the Melrose at York later in the season backed up that impression.

Gelded last autumn, he came back to run a career best when beating Gamrai at Newmarket over a mile and a half in May, stamina once again looking his long suit, and I feel a step up to this trip can only be a plus point. A real trier, which is always half the battle, he’ll have his conditions and can go well.

Suggestion: Back Sing Us A Song at 17/2, and/or Daiquiri Bay at 7/1. Maybe even try a small stakes reverse forecast.

 

2026 Royal Ascot Betting Trends – Day One (Tues 16th June)

/in , /by

More top action in June as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2026 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 16th to Sat 20th June 2026) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar.

Like all big race days, here at GEEGEEZ we've got it all covered with key trends and stats - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Royal Ascot Trends - Day One, Tuesday 16th June 2026

2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m ITV

Recent Queen Anne Stakes Winners

2025 – Docklands (14/1)
2024 – Charyn (100/30 fav)
2023 – Triple Time 33/1
2022 – Baaeed (1/6 fav)
2021 – Palace Pier (2/7 fav)
2020 – Circus Maximus (4/1 fav)
2019 – Lord Glitters (14/1)
2018 – Accidental Agent (33/1)
2017 – Ribchester (11/10 fav)
2016 – Tepin (11/2)
2015 – Solow (11/8 fav)
2014 – Toronado (4/5 fav)
2013 – Declaration Of War (15/2)
2012 – Frankel (1/10 fav)
2011 – Canford Cliffs (11/8)
2010 – Goldikova (11/8 fav)
2009 – Paco Boy (10/3)
2008 – Haradasun (5/1)
2007 – Ramonti (5/1)
2006 – Ad Valorem (13/2)
2005 – Valixir (4/1)
2004 – Refuse To Bend (12/1)
2003 – Dubai Destination (9/2)
2002 – No Excuse Needed (13/2)

Queen Anne Stakes Trends

23/24 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
21/24 – Previous winners over 1 mile
18/24 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
18/24 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
17/24 – Won by a 4 year-old
16/24 – Had already won a Group 1 race
16/24 - Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/24 – Ran in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last time out
11/24 – Trained by either R Hannon (3), A P O’Brien (4) or owned by Godolphin (4)
11/24 – Had never run at Ascot before
10/24 – Won their previous race
10/24 – Favourites that were unplaced
9/24 – Winning favourites
Godolphin have won the race 8 times in total, but Charlie Appleby is yet to win the race
Only 2 winners from Stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
15 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 4 or higher

3.05 - Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f ITV

Recent Coventry Stakes Winners

2025 – Gstaad (7/2 fav)
2024 – Rashabar (80/1)
2023 – River Tiber (11/8 fav)
2022 – Bradsell (8/1)
2021 – Berkshire Shadow (11/1)
2020 – Nando Parrado (150/1)
2019 – Arizona (15/8 fav)
2018 – Calyx (2/1 fav)
2017 – Rajasinghe (11/1)
2016 – Caravaggio (13/8 fav)
2015 – Buratino (6/1)
2014 – The Wow Signal (5/1 jfav)
2013 – War Command (20/1)
2012 – Dawn Approach (7/2)
2011 – Power (4/1 fav)
2010 – Strong Suit (15/8 fav)
2009 – Canford Cliffs (7/4 fav)
2008 – Art Connoisseur (8/1)
2007 – Henrythenavigator (11/4 fav)
2006 – Hellvelyn (4/1 jfav)
2005 – Red Clubs (11/2)
2004 – Iceman (5/1 jfav)
2003 – Three Valleys (7/1)
2002 – Statue Of Liberty (16/1)

Coventry Stakes Trends

22/24 – Won their previous race
22/24 – Had never raced at Ascot before
21/24 – Had between 1 and 2 previous career runs
19/24 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
18/24 - Foaled in either Feb or March
17/24 - Came from the top three in the betting
14/24 – Won over 6f before
12/24 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
8/24 – Ran at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out
8/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (11 in total)
5/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (5 of the last 15)
2/24 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/24 - Won by a Jan foal
15 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
10 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 9-19 (inc)

3.40 – The King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f ITV

Known as King's Stand Stakes prior to 2024

Recent King Charles III Stakes Stakes Winners

2025 – American Affair (11/1)
2024 – Asfoora (5/1)
2023 – Bradsell (14/1)
2022 – Nature Strip (9/4)
2021 – Oxted (4/1)
2020 – Battaash (5/6 fav)
2019 – Blue Point (5/2)
2018 – Blue Point (6/1)
2017 – Lady Aurelia (7/2)
2016 – Profitable (4/1)
2015 – Goldream (20/1)
2014 – Sole Power (5/1)
2013 – Sole Power (8/1)
2012 - Little Bridge (12/1)
2011 - Prohibit (7/1)
2010 - Equiano (9/2)
2009 - Scenic Blast (11/4 fav)
2008 - Equiano (22/1)
2007 - Miss Andretti (3/1 fav)
2006 - Takeover Target (7/1)
2005 - Chineur (7/1)
2004 - The Tatling (8/1)
2003 – Choisir (25/1)

King’s Stand Stakes Trends

23/24 – Aged 7 or younger
22/24 – Had won a Group race before
20/24 – Aged 4 or older
20/24 – Had won over 5f before
17/24 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/24 – Finished first or second last time out
14/24 – Had run at Ascot before (9 had won at the track)
13/24 – Favourites placed
13/24 – Won by a non-UK based trained horse
6/24 – Ran at either Flemington (3) or Chantilly (3) last time out
7/24 – Favourites that finished third
5/24 – Won by an Australian-trained horse
4/24 – Winning favourites
4/24 – 3 Year-old winners
A horse from stalls 9, 11 & 14 has been placed in 14 of the last 18 runnings
3 of the last 8 winners stall 10
Charlie Appleby has won 2 of the last 9
Robert Cowell has won 2 of the last 15
10 of the last 22 won by a non-UK trained horse

4.20 - St James´s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m ITV

Recent St James’s Palace Stakes Winners

2025 – Field Of Gold (8/11 fav)
2024 – Rosallion (5/2)
2023 – Paddington (11/5)
2022 – Coroebus (10/11 fav)
2021 – Poetic Flare (7/2 fav)
2020 – Palace Pier (4/1)
2019 – Circus Maximus (10/1)
2018 – Without Parole (9/4 fav)
2017 – Barney Roy (5/2)
2016 – Galileo Gold (6/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (8/15 fav)
2014 – Kingman (8/11 fav)
2013 – Dawn Approach (5/4 fav)
2012 – Most Improved (9/1)
2011 – Frankel (3/10 fav)
2010 – Canford Cliffs (11/4 jfav)
2009 – Mastercraftsman (5/6 fav)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (4/7 fav)
2007 – Excellent Art (8/1)
2006 – Araafa (2/1 fav)
2005 – Shamardal (7/4 fav)
2004 – Azamour (9/2)
2003 - Zafeen (8/1)
2002 – Rock Of Gibraltar (4/5 fav)

St James’s Palace Stakes Trends

24/24 - Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
21/24 – Had won over a mile before
20/24 – Favourites that were placed
19/24 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
19/24– Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
17/24 – Previous Group 1 winners
17/24 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
15/24 – Won their previous race
14/24 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
13/24 – Ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Curragh) last time out (10 won it)
10/24 – Irish-trained winners
7/24 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (9 total)
7/24 – Had run at Ascot before
Just 4 winners from stall 1 or 2 in the last 18 runnings
7 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 4 or 5
3 of the last 12 winners ridden by Ryan Moore
Trainer Richard Hannon has won 2 of the last 9
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 9

5.00 - Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-95) 2m4f ITV

Ascot Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Ascending (20/1)
2024 – Pledgeofallegiance (20/1)
2023 – Ahorsewithnoname (7/1)
2022 – Coltrane (14/1)
2021 – Reshoun (66/1)
2020 – Coeur De Lion (16/1)
2019 – The Grand Visir (12/1)
2018 – Lagostovegas (10/1)
2017 – Thomas Hobson (4/1 fav)
2016 – Jennies Jewel (6/1)
2015 – Clondaw Warrior (5/1 fav)
2014 – Domination (12/1)
2013 – Well Sharp (9/1)
2012 – Simenon (8/1)
2011 – Veiled (11/2)
2010 – Junior (17/2)
2009 – Judgethemoment (13/2)
2008 – Missoula (20/1)
2007 – Full House (20/1)
2006 – Baddam (33/1)
2005 – Leg Spinner (9/1)
2004 – Double Obsession (25/1)
2003 – Sindapour (12/1)
2002 – Riyadh (7/1 fav)

Ascot Stakes Trends

21/24 – Carried 8-13 or more
18/24 – Had at least 1 previous run on the flat that season
17/24 – Won by a stable better known for their NH runners
17/24 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
14/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/24 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/24 – Won their previous race
4/24 – Trained by Willie Mullins (4 of the last 14)
3/24 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 14)
3/24 – Winning favourites
2/24 – Trained by Ian Williams
William Buick has ridden 2 of the last 5 winners
2 of the last 6 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
Just two winners (or placed) horse from stall 1 placed in the last 18 runnings

5.40 - Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-110) 1m2f ITV

Wolferton Stakes Recent Winners

2025 – Haatem (8/1)
2024 – Israr (11/4 fav)
2023 – Royal Champion (16/1)
2022 – Dubai Future (20/1)
2021 – Juan Elcano (14/1)
2020 – Mountain Angel (8/1)
2019 – Addeybb (5/1)
2018 – Monarchs Glen (8/1)
2017 – Snoano (25/1)
2016 – Sir Isaac Newton (7/1)
2015 – Mahsoob (7/4 fav)
2014 – Contributer (9/1)
2013 – Forgotten Voice (12/1)
2012 – Gatewood (3/1 fav)
2011 – Beachfire (12/1)
2010 – Rainbow Peak (13/8 fav)
2009 – Perfect Stride (8/1)
2008 – Supaseus (12/1)
2007 – Championship Point (25/1)
2006 – I’m So Lucky (16/1)
2005 – Imperial Stride (25/1)
2004 – Red Fort (6/1)
2003 – In Time’s Eye (5/1)

Wolferton Stakes Key Trends

18/23 – Had between 1 and 3 runs already that season
17/23 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
16/23 – Finished unplaced last time out
15/23 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
14/23 – Aged 4 years-old
14/23 – Had run at Ascot before
11/23 – Unplaced favourites
11/23 – Returned a double-figure price
7/23 – Ran at either York (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
5/23 – Trained by John Gosden (5 of last 15)
4/23 – Trained at Kremlin House Stables (Roger Varian/M Jarvis)
3/23 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 20 winners returned 7/1 or bigger
5 of the last 10 winners came from stall 5
9 of the last 11 winners aged 4 or 5

6.10 - Copper Horse Handicap (4yo+) 1m6f ITV

Copper Horse Handicap Recent Winners

2025 – French Master (5/2f)
2024 – Belloccio (4/1)
2023 – Vauban (Evs)
2022 – Get Shirty (16/1)
2021 – Amtiyaz (33/1)
2020 – Fujaira Prince (3/1fav)
Just the 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Carried 9-1 or more
6/6 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-8
6/6 – Aged between 4-6 (3 winners aged 6)
3/6 – Winning favourite
Trainer Willie Mullins won this race in 2023 and 2024
Trainer David O’Meara won this race in 2022
Trainer John Gosden won this race in 2021 and 2025
Trainer Roger Varian won this race in 2020

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Royal Ascot Tix Picks 2025, Day 4

/in , , /by

This week, as part of our Royal Ascot content, I'm making a suggested placepot permutation each day. Today is the final day of four where I'll offer my thoughts; tomorrow, you should now understand the process enough to 'fly solo'. So how's it been going?

It started well on Tuesday: although the perm only caught 2% of the dividend, that was enough to return £58.11 from a £24.96 stake, including 5% Tix bonus. That's a profit of £33.15.

It got better on Wednesday: a £22.68 stake returned £146.47 from 13% of the dividend. That's two four-figure dividends we've managed to get a slice of, which is very, very hard using traditional 'caveman' perms. This is the beauty of ABCX and Tix!

It was less good, but still good, on Thursday: we staked £25.44 and caught exactly £1 of the dividend which, including Tix 5% extra, came to £44.94, a profit of £19.50.

Totals on the week to date are £73.08 staked and £249.52 returned, for a profit of £176.44. Given approximately £25 stake again today, we're guaranteed to clear north of £150 profit from Tix Picks and placepots on the week (again, no Tix Picks on Saturday). Not bad for a bit of fun!

It was easier than it looked yesterday but is normally trappy on Ascot Friday. And there's another £50 prize giveaway today before 'double bubble' tomorrow - see below.

I'll be using the ABCX approach, outlined here, and some online software called Tix which I built in conjunction with Nige, the guy who coded most of the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools. [It is excellent software, though I say so myself]

Basically, I'm creating a number of different placepot bets based around how strongly I fancy various horses; and I'm weighting my stakes accordingly.

When I say 'I', I mean Tix is doing all of that; I'm just picking horses and choosing whether they're A (strongest fancy), B (fair chance) or C (dark horse/lively outsider). X are the horses I'm discarding from contention.

Tix Bonus

Every winning ticket placed through Tix benefits from a 5% bonus return. Win £100? You'll get £105. Win £500? Enjoy an extra £25. Just for placing your bets through Tix.

Prizes to be won

And, throughout Royal Ascot week, we're giving away some Tix prizes.

Tuesday to Friday / Saturday

For the first four days of the Royal meeting, the Tix player with the highest return on investment on a single ticket will win £50.

On the final day of Royal Ascot, Saturday, the Tix player netting top ROI will win £100, credited to their tote account.

So that's £300 in prizes this week!

Congratulations to Mick C, who won £50 on Tuesday; and to Paul M, who won £50 on Wednesday; and to Vincent M, who won yesterday.

What do you need?

You simply need a tote account. Get one here if you don't already have one. [You'll probably be eligible for extra bonuses when signing up, but obviously do check the T's and C's]

**

To Friday, Day 4.

Leg 1 - Albany Stakes:

Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore are three from four in juvenile races this week, the winners all being shortish and the loser being 18/1. They have the shortish Signora here, who is obviously highly thought of as she debuted in a Group 3 where she finished third. A. But the fastest filly so far is probably Fitzella, who ran a blinder against boys over five on debut and then ran away with a maiden over six against her own sex last time. She tends to go forward and will need something in reserve on this stiffer straight, but I'm pretty sure she's smart.

The draw was highly significant yesterday - high being the operative word - and if things manifest similarly this afternoon, the cheaply bought (but presumably expensively sold on) Ipanema Queen will go well. Adrian Murray has an excellent juvenile record at Ascot and this filly won a big field maiden on debut. Gold Digger is also drawn high and her closing sectionals on debut at Yarmouth mark her out as having more to come: she's likely to get a 'Jamie come lately' ride.

A - 5 Fitzella, 14 Signora
B - 6 Gold Digger, 9 Ipanema Queen

Leg 2 - Commonwealth Cup:

We have to go narrow somewhere and, though Charlie Appleby has had a quiet week so far, his horses have run largely in line with market expectation. Shadow Of Light drops back from the Guineas mile to a testing six and that looks optimal. I'm banking on him here from his high draw - and will be place laying for half my stake most likely. It's a really good race and there are plenty of credible threats but his juvenile form, including 6f and 7f G1 wins, and his 2000 Guineas third set the standard.

A - 9 Shadow Of Light

Leg 3 - Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes:

You'll have got the memo about high draws in big field 1m4f Ascot handicaps by now and, though it will go awry sooner or later, it's the percentage call. Crystal Black won from 4 last year but the next quartet home were berthed in 16,13,18,17. Three of the highest drawn four finished top five in 2023, and it was 18,10,16,4,15,17 in 2022. Midfield or held up have been optimal run styles. Almosh'her probably needs to be ridden more patiently than recently, Stressfree has a perfect draw/pace profile, ditto Mount Atlas and French Duke. That'll do. Look out for War Rooms as well, for last year's shrewd winning connections, though he misses the ticket this time.

A - 8 Mount Atlas, 9 Stressfree, 12 French Duke, 14 Almosh'her

Leg 4 - Coronation Stakes:

Rightly or wrongly - probably the latter - I didn't make this as open and shut as the bookies currently do. Zarigana has been quietly unimpressive in winning her races, though she tends to get it done, even with a little help from her amis. Falakeyah looks a star filly in the making but this is big step up on only her third career start. They are the A ticket pair but I'm taking insurance on B in the form of January, the pick of Ryan Moore and expected to show her Irish 1000 Guineas run to be all wrong; and also Chantilly Lace, another inexperienced filly who was close enought to Desert Flower in the 2000 Guineas to give her a squeak.

A - 6 Falakeyah, 11 Zarigana
B - 3 Chantilly Lace, 8 January

Leg 5 - Sandringham Stakes:

The straight seven and mile handicaps yesterday were exclusively the province of very high drawn runners, and I nicked some nice trifecta swag from that simple 'in' (I'll be trying again today but lightning rarely strikes three times!). It's the place to start here, then, and we'll take three of the top four stalls on A: Alfareqa, Miss Nightfall and Zgharta. We'll also take six from the rail Betty Clover. On C, I'll lob a few middle and low draws, in case it plays differently from 24 hours ago - plus UNF.

A - 2 Betty Clover, 11 Miss Nightfall, 13 Zgharta, 25 Alfareqa
C - 1 Tabiti, 5 Bountiful, 6 Silver Ghost, 12 Never Let Go, 15 Oolong Poobong, Unnamed favourite

Leg 6 - King Edward VII Stakes:

Calandagan won this in breathtaking fashion a year ago and his colours - those of the Aga Khan estate - will be worn by Ben Coen atop Zahrann this time. He's progressed with each step up in trip, winning his maiden over ten by seven lengths and a Listed race at this mile and a half range last time by more than two lengths. If he's as effective on very fast ground, and shows even a small hop forward form wise, he'll be tough to beat. Amiloc has a similar profile, unbeaten in four for Ralph Beckett, and winner of a Listed race when upped three furlongs most recently. He's bred for this job - by Postponed out of an Authorized mare, would definitely jump a hurdle! - and rounds out A tickets.

I'm not mad keen on Puppet Master but he's the only other one at a single figure price, and he's taking support; that's enough for solo B status. And I'm flinging some mud at the C wall way more in hope of a result than expectation.

A - 1 Amiloc, 11 Zahrann
B - 8 Puppet Master
C - 4 Green Storm, 6 Nightwalker, 7 Opportunity, 9 Regal Ulixes, Unnamed favourite

Full ticket view

Again keeping things sub-£25, we'll get 4p change!

Full disclosure: as always, even if this perm gets 'winning' tickets, there's a chance it pays less than the total stakes. We're really trying to get something interesting to happen at some point in the sequence!

The full A (green) B (yellow) C (tan) view looks like this:

 

 

And the breakdown by ticket is like this:

 

 

Remember, you need to have a placed selection in each leg on at least one ticket. That means at least four races with A picks placing.

Place your Tix bets here - and you'll be in line for a 5% bonus on winning tickets, and a chance to win £50 again today (and £100 tomorrow, Saturday) at Royal Ascot.

Royal Ascot 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

On we go, to the fourth day of Royal Ascot and the final day of our full preview coverage. Win, lose or draw, I hope you've enjoyed the contributions of our assembled panel. Victor Value, aka John Burke, and Gavin Priestley would very much appreciate you checking out their pages (through the banner images in the post) if you'd liked their style/work.

Let's go to Friday's card!

2.30 THE ALBANY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Victor Value

The Albany Stakes is a Group 3 contest open to two-year-old fillies only. It’s a relatively new race to  Royal Ascot being first run in 2002. Initially Listed status, it became a Group 3 in 2005.

Some useful fillies have won the race before going onto better things including:

Samitar (2011) - Went onto win the following year’s Irish 1,000 Guineas.

Cursory Glance (2014) – Won the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes later that season.

Brave Anna (2016) – Landed the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes that year.

Porto Fortuna (2023) – Proved even better as a 3-year-old winning three Group 1’s including the Coronation Stakes here.

 

Trends to Note

Taking a quick look at the ten-year trends, unlike some of the juvenile races at the meeting there hasn’t been a real surprise result. Horses sent off 22/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 86 runners, 3 places.

The ten most recent winners all shared the following trends:

- Won their last start (non-winners last time out are 0 winners from 60 runners, 6 places)
- Returned 17/2 or shorter on their previous start (those sent off 9/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 42 runners, 3 places)

Finally, delving into the draw, winners have come from all over the track in the past ten years. However, if you we look at the last five years in isolation, 10 of the 15 placed horses were drawn in stalls 1 to 8 including four of the five winners.

 

Contenders

Seventeen were declared for this year’s race.  Despite the size of the field, I like just five.

Balantina stepped up markedly on her debut run when making all to win Curragh maiden 26 days ago. Connections won that Curragh race with Porta Fortuna in 2023. I doubt she will prove as good as that multiple Group 1-winning filly, but she has each way claims from stall 4.

Signora was weak in the betting when a 2½ lengths 3rd of 6 to the useful Lady Iman in a Group 3 at Naas on her racecourse debut last month.  Tenderly handled in the closing stages there, she can win races on the evidence of that run. Her dam won the 2017 Queen Mary Stakes and trainer Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2016. Strong claims from stall 11.

Green Sense was a winner on her debut at the Curragh in April and improved again when a ¾-length second to Lady Iman in that Naas Group 3.  She’s likely capable of a bit more improvement albeit might not have the upside of the third.

Oisin Murphy rode Balantina and Fitzella last time and has opted for the latter. The daughter of Too Darn Hot built on her racecourse debut promise when winning at Haydock 28 days ago. That performance marked her down as a useful juvenile prospect and she should be in the mix.

Gold Digger was an expensive (260,000gns) purchase at the Craven Breeze Up sales in April. The daughter of Starman overcame a slow start to win at Yarmouth on her debut 37 days ago. Well backed last time, like many of the fillies in the line-up she’s capable of more improvement.

Albany Stakes Verdict

Aidan O’Brien has already landed two of the Royal Ascot juveniles - prior to racing on Thursday - so one must respect the claims of Signora who was thrown in at the deep end on her racecourse debut. Balantina bids to follow in the hoofprints of stablemate Porta Fortuna who won this race two years ago. I think she's a solid each way chance. Fitzella and Gold Digger might prove the best of the British-trained fillies.

Selection: Try Balantina each way at 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

 

3.05 THE COMMONWEALTH CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A whopping 22 runners for this fantastic addition to the racing calendar generally, and to Royal Ascot more specifically. It's already produced some terrific races - and winners - and this year's renewal looks likely to continue in that vein. However, is it an open and shut case?

The favourite, at shorter than 2/1, is Guineas third and dual juvenile Group 1 winner including at 6f, Shadow Of Light. He shaped like a non-stayer at Newmarket, the mile always being the question mark (along with whether he'd trained on), but ran a cracker before fading in the final half furlong or so. This stiff straight six ought to be ideal, and stall 19 is probably helpful, too. He has a very obvious chance.

Against him are massed ranks, led by the filly Babouche. Classics were never entertained for this Ger Lyons-trained juvenile G1 winner, and she stepped up on a seasonal debut effort when winning the Group 3 Lacken Stakes, comfortably from Whistlejacket, last time out.

Whistlejacket reopposes here, and was also second the day Babouche bagged her Group 1, in the Phoenix Stakes over this trip. He's a very consistent horse, a G1 winner himself in France, and his form ties in closely with both the filly and Shadow Of Light for all that he's been beaten respectful distances by both as his head to head record shows:

 

 

Jonquil's profile is slightly different. Lightly raced, he's run three times at seven furlongs - winning either side of a Listed flop, firstly in a maiden and most recently in the Group 3 Greenham on seasonal debut - before stepping up to a mile last time. That was in the Poulains, the French 2000 Guineas and he was but a head shy of Henri Matisse, so the question is whether he has the speed for this assignment. He will be staying on when others can't but I'm not sure about the trip for all that he's clearly classy and progressive. Connections had Field Of Gold for the St James's Palace or presumably he'd have gone there.

The consistent Ides Of March could easily be on the premises again, but he's got a bit to find with a couple other than Shadow Of Light; ditto Big Mojo, who I half expected to go up in trip this season: this stiffer track will certainly suit - he's a course and distance winner from the trial race earlier this year - and his trainer is a master at getting the best out of sprinters.

The raiding party are headed by French-trained Rayevka and the US sprinter Shisospicy. The former has raced exclusively on the soft side of good and produced a huge career best last time in a Chantilly G3; that form, or a bit more if the faster ground helps, could grab her a podium spot.

Shisospicy has no going concerns, but will be running in a straight line in a race for the first time. She has a stone to find with Shadow Of Light and, though I'm glad she is here to add to the international flavour, I don't fancy her chances especially.

Of the rest, it's always dangerous writing off an Adrian Murray-trained sprinter, and Arizona Blaze was third in the Norfolk last year and ran a slightly unlucky second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He's a well drawn pace angle and can take them along to the quarter pole and beyond - holding on to the finish will be trickier, of course.

Two more worth a mention are last year's Queen Mary winner, Leovanni, and the Nick Luck and Kevin Blake co-owned Lady With The Lamp. The first named is probably better at five furlongs and may not have trained on - bit too early to say - but she obviously fared well here previously; the latter has been unfancied, to some degree at least, on her most recent pair of starts, rallying from far back each time to score. She'll get a similar setup here and may not be a forlorn hope: it's hard to peg the form of deep closers.

It's a cracking race and one that revolves around SHADOW OF LIGHT. I think he probably just wins, tracking Arizona Blaze in the adjacent stall, and finishing strong. He's probably not even a terrible price given there's plenty of dead wood in the context of the grade in this field. A far more speculative each way alternative is Rayevka: she'll need the ground to eke out a bit more but, as a 'now' filly - coming off a big career top - a small win/place play might reward.

Suggestion: Back SHADOW OF LIGHT to win at 2/1 or bigger. Try a tiny e/w on Rayevka at 22/1 with all the extra places.

 

 

3.40 THE DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Rory Delargy

There’s a growing sense of déjà vu here. Having suggested that high was the place to be in the King George V Handicap on Thursday, I ploughed into stall 17 as a win bet only to watch Sing Us A Song ruin his chance with a dreadful beginning, only made worse by seeing stalls 20 and 21 land the exacta. Arrrgggh!!

Here we are again, then. A big-field handicap where those who can finish off up the centre of the track are at an advantage, and I might just narrow the runners with a view to getting the exacta – or the swinger for the less adventurous (surely the swinger should be for the more adventurous?! No sniggering at the back!)

Long List: Horses who could reasonably be described as hold-up types drawn 12 or higher are as follows:

War Rooms
Siege of Troy
Teumessias Fox
French Duke
Mount Atlas
Stressfree
Flight Leader

Of that group, I have a clear preference for French Duke who I thought was unlucky here last year in the King George V Handicap, while I’d happily throw out Teumessias Fox who has been well beaten twice before at this meeting.

War Rooms represents last year’s winning connections and is worth including as he will be suited by a very strong pace having proven his stamina over further, while Siege of Troy is dropping in class having run in Listed and Group 3 contests. She’s exposed but a tongue tie could help here and I’m loth to throw her out.

Mount Atlas is probably too high in the weights, with a course and distance win coming off 15lb lower. He’ll run his race but might find at least two better at the wire. Stressfree has a win and a second from two runs over the trip this term and definitely merits his place, leaving Flight Leader of those drawn high. He has the draw and the run style, but his form is at shorter and I’m not sure he has the requisite stamina for the job.

 

Wildcards:

I’m never entirely sure about front runners from wide draws, but Almosh’her is unexposed and coming off a career best at the trip. Beaten by only one horse in his career, he’s widest of all in 22 and ticks enough boxes to make himself indispensable. Hand Of God came high, wide and handsome when winning over 1¼m here last year and should progress further. I’m not certain he wants 1½m but he was strong at the finish 12 months ago and merits respect as a previous Royal Ascot winner.

 

Verdict:

Perm the following in the exotic of your choice, depending on how risk-averse you are, included in order of preference:

French Duke
Stressfree
Almosh’her
War Rooms
Hand of God

 

4.20 THE CORONATION STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

The traditional clash of the 1000 Guineas fillies from across Europe. With the Newmarket and Curragh winners, Desert Flower and Lake Victoria, both absent, it falls to promoted Pouliches scorer Zarigana to uphold the Classic form.

In that French 1000, she got the nod in a highly contentious stewards' decision from the syndicate-owned Charlie Fellowes-trained Shes Perfect. I've watched that replay from all angles countless times, and it genuinely felt like a stitch up to me for all that we know the French interference rules are far stricter (and, in my view, better) than ours. Anyway, to the form more generally. It's hard to say that that Classic race hasn't worked out because the disqualified winner and third and fifth all went up markedly in trip for the Prix de Diane. They made little impression there, shaping like none of them stayed. Still, Zarigana has won her last three races by a nose, a neck, and minus a nose! She looks one to take on at the prices.

Falakeyah is unbeaten in her two starts to date, both this season, and she's no sort of profile fit for a Coronation Stakes. But her form is a) good and b) very likely less than she's capable of. She laughed at Life Is Beautiful in a Listed race at Newmarket last time - that one was only two lengths behind the second in the Ribblesdale yesterday. While LIB stepped up a quarter mile, Falakeyah steps back the same distance and, on a turning track with a short straight like Ascot, which places more emphasis on speed than stamina unless they go a million, that's a niggle. Owen Burrows is highly selective and rarely places his horses in the wrong slot, but she again looks short given those reservations.

Another lightly raced unbeaten filly with form tie ins to Life Is Beautiful is Kon Tiki, trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam. Three from three so far, most recently in the mile Michael Seeley Memorial at York (Listed), she's got plenty more to offer but is a stone behind the highest rated on her performances thus far.

Ralph Beckett sends Chantilly Lace, lobbed in at the deep end in the manner of a Mexican cliff dive last time when going from Newbury novice to the 1000 Guineas. She ran a belter there to be two and a half lengths fifth, and has every right to make further progress here on just her third lifetime start.

January's juvenile form was strong - twice getting close to 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower - but she flopped on her seasonal bow and comes here needing to show she's trained on. The fact Ballydoyle have myriad fillies to pick from and Ryan lands on her implies she had; if that's right, and you can forgive her Irish Guineas flop, she's a fair price.

Stablemate Exactly has a higher rating than January, courtesy of her length defeat by Zarigana in the French 1000; it must be noteworthy that Ryan has shunned this one having ridden her in Paris. Exactly's form profile does hint that a softer sward would be preferable.

Ollie Sangster's 2-3 from Newmarket's 1000 Guineas ran 6th and 11th in the Curragh follow up, and perhaps Flight is the one that will prefer these rapid conditions. It was good to firm when she was second at HQ and she ought again to finish in front of Simmering, who will be having her fourth run of the campaign.

At a massive price, Duty First took a step forward from Newmarket (9th, beaten 12 lengths) to the Curragh (4th, beaten less than five lengths) in two Classic outings, and had earlier won the Fred Darling on her first 2025 outing. Archie Watson has an excellent Royal Ascot record so this filly could be a small bit of value at 66/1.

I'm not sure the market has this race right yet, and I was not surprised that the three I think are over-priced (or three of the four excluding the massive outsider) are showing blue on the odds grids. Still, you can have 8/1 about January, 11/1 Chantilly Lace, and 16/1 Flight. 66/1 is the price for Duty First and she's getting a tiny speculative from me also.

Suggestion: Split a point or two on January at 8/1 and Chantilly Lace at 11/1. Split a penny win and place on Duty First at 66/1.

 

5.00 THE SANDRINGHAM STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

A 3yo fillies handicap over the straight mile to finish my week’s work. I’ll start by taking a look at the 15-year trends, which are a bit sparse as far as strong patterns go.

 

Market Rank

Six wins for favourites and three for second favourites so despite having big fields generally (10 of the races with 20+ runners) the market has proved a good guide.

 

Weight Rank

Eight of the last 15 winners have come from the top four in the weights (inc. joint 4th). This equates to 53% of the winners from just 20% of the total runners. Also, a further 15 were placed.

 

Position LTO

Eight of the last 15 winners won LTO. This equates to 53% of the winners from just 27% of the total runners.

 

Price LTO

14 of the last 15 winners returned an SP of 8/1 or less LTO (from 200 runners). A further 31 were placed. Horses priced 17/2 or bigger LTO have won just once from 128 runners (11 placed).

 

Draw

The number of runners each year has fluctuated massively between 15 and 30 runners so for my draw analysis I am doing what I did yesterday, using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail.  Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.

Looking at the last 15 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

Draw position in relation to stands rail PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5  stalls away 0.51 0.56
6 to 10  stalls away 0.52 0.57
11 to 15  stalls away 0.52 0.52
16 to 20  stalls away 0.42 0.42
21 or more stalls away 0.51 0.62

 

These figures give us a real conundrum as there is no clear pattern. It does seem that more fancied horses furthest away from the stands rail (the low draws) have performed the best.

 

Run Style

Now I am looking at the PRBs for each run style group based on the last 15 years. The splits are:

 

Run Style PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group 0.36 0.48
Prominent 0.44 0.46
Mid Division 0.49 0.52
Held up 0.59 0.62

 

A clear edge to hold up horses – a pattern we have seen before this week in the mile handicaps. In terms of wins we have seven wins for hold ups, six for mid pack runners and one apiece for prominent /early leaders.

 

Form Preview

I have four runners in this year's field that I particularly like:

Supermodel – Two wins from three starts including a comfortable success on seasonal reappearance at Nottingham. All three starts the horse has been held up which, as the trends show, has been a strong positive. Trainer William Haggas has not had the greatest record in handicaps at this meeting but in each of the last three years he has saddled one handicap winner, and I think Supermodel could make it four years running. Drawn 3.

Better Clover – She has run twice as Ascot, finishing eighth in the Queen Mary last year and then second beaten a neck a month later in the Group 3 Queen Margaret Stakes. She has run three times this year and shaped with promise in each, finishing fourth, second and third. The last run in France, in Group 2 company, was an eye-catching effort. William Buick was booked early for this one so I am guessing Eve Johnson Houghton  is very hopeful. In terms of run style Betty Clover tends to race mid pack or further back early which is ideal. Drawn 23 and second in the weights is a plus from the 15-year trends.

Silver Ghost – Is two from two this year with wins at Newmarket and Goodwood. She has gone up 8lb for that Goodwood win but that was impressive, especially considering that her draw may have been lower than ideal: she was in stall 6 and horses finishing second to seventh were drawn 12, 9, 16, 10, 13, 15; those finishing eighth to last were drawn 1, 5, 2, 7, 8, 4, 3. Drawn 20 here. In both of her wins this year she has been held up in rear early.

Miss Nightfall – She finished second to Silver Ghost at Goodwood. She was well beaten that day but would have finished closer if granted a clearer run between the one and the two pole. Drawn 28 and looks a lively outsider.

 

Suggestion

Try Supermodel to win at 8/1 & Betty Clover e/w at 12/1 (several bookies going six places again, Sky Bet seven)

 

5.35 THE KING EDWARD VII STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

For the purposes of the trends we'll overlook the result from 2020 because, due to Covid, the Derby was actually run after Royal Ascot that year.

So, as is usual for this race we have a field made up of a couple of also rans from Epsom, a few that missed it for one reason or another, a number of lesser lights from the O'Brien stable, a couple of winners stepping up from novice company, and a few trainers tilting at windmills hoping to pick up some black type and place money.

Traditionally sandwiched in the middle of the Epsom and Irish Derby's, the 'Ascot Derby' is a poor shadow of either of those Group 1's and the Epsom winner hasn't shown up here in a very long time. However, the Epsom second did run, and win, in 2023. In fact, 5 of the last 8 winners had their last start at Epsom where they had finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 10th (twice).

This year we have just two runners from the Derby taking part, Nightwalker and Green Storm, neither of whom looked like getting competitive at Epsom. The pair had met previously when a distant 3rd and 4th in the Fielden Stakes at Newmarket back in April with Nightwalker doing best there but it was Green Storm who won their private battle at Epsom when finishing 7th. As a 2yo Green Storm had finished within 2 lengths of the likely favourite here, Amiloc, in a Kempton maiden and was 1 1/2 length behind the Derby 3rd Tennessee Stud in a French Group 1 at the back end of last season.

Of the two that ran in the Derby I'd side with Green Storm to do the best and he does look a pretty big price if able to reproduce some of that 2yo form. He hasn't managed it yet but the stable remain convinced he's still got it in him and this is nowhere near as competitive as that headline G1. I'd expect him to seriously outrun his current 40/1 odds and I'll probably have a little side bet on him.

The trends say we need a run as a 2yo, 1-3 seasonal runs, 2-7 career starts and the most recent within the last 12-56 days in a class 1-3 race with a top four finish (unless it was the Epsom Derby). All of the last nine winners were rated 103+ and interestingly, 13 of the last 17 winners had yet to win a Group race. It also hasn't paid to get too fancy in this race recently with all of the last 7 non-Covid renewals having gone to horses at 6/1 or under from the top three in the betting.

Which leads me to the selection. I'm going to make my main bet another horse that looks majorly overpriced. In fact, his odds look so wrong it's making me think I've missed something because in my mind there is no way this horse should be 14/1 on what we've seen from him so far this Season. I'm expecting him to be gambled on and go off at single figure odds.

CONVERGENT has had three races, two novice races at Redcar that have worked out very well with multiple winners coming out of both races, and the Group 3 Chester Vase where he ran 3rd to the Aidan O'Brien trained Lambourn: the same Lambourn that skated home in the Derby where he beat the Chester Vase second Lazy Griff. Not only have the front two from that race confirmed the form in the best possible way, the 15 length 6th from the race has also come out and won a Group 3 since. 14/1 is massive for a horse who ticks the boxes, has the ideal profile for this race and has top form to back it up. Clifford Lee is back onboard, who has a 100% 2-2 record on him, and the trainer has been knocking on the door with a few of his runners this week. Everything is in place for a big run... Non-runner, aaaargh

SELECTION: CONVERGENT 1pt EW 14/1 (Paddypower) Small each way on Green Storm at 40/1

6.10 THE PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by David Massey

I’ve enjoyed doing these write-ups for Geegeez this week but there’s not been a lot of big-priced ones that I’ve fancied for readers to get stuck into. Well, it might have taken until Friday, but I’ve found three I like and if I can bag the winner from them, I’m hopeful I might get called back to have another go next year… [you're in! - Ed.]

I started by looking at Redorange, trained by Clive Cox, as he’s a gelding I’ve been keen on since I saw him win at Yarmouth last year. He won well that day, and I decided he’d be a horse I’d follow this year. I wasn’t the only one, as he was backed off the boards to win at Chester on his second start of the season, the 9-4 in the morning evaporating to just 11-10 at the off. Chester suited him down to the ground; in greyhound parlance, quickly away, early pace, led late on, always doing enough. 

I wonder whether Ascot will suit him as well, and in any case let’s revisit Redorange’s first run of the year at Sandown where he still ran well but only finished third. In front of him that day in second was Brosay, who finished off well and, whilst not an unlucky loser, jumping the path late on certainly didn’t help his cause. He finished ¾ length in front of Redorange there, yet is 7lb better in here, and is over twice the price. That, to me, makes no sense, and given Ascot should suit, and the fast ground will hold no fears, at 20-1 and bigger he heads up my list. 

The other two both come from the Queen Mary last year, and both look overpriced, given Royal Ascot form - much like Cheltenham Festival form it often translates well from year to year. 

Karl Burke’s Miss Lamai finished fourth to Leovanni last year, and the theory was that she’d be a speedy 2yo and no more. To be fair to her she was highly tried after that, taking in a couple of Grade 3s in France and, whilst not disgraced in either, it did look as if that might be her lot. 

However, on her latest start, in the Westow Stakes at York, she took a good step forward running on in taking style to finish third to the useful Tropical Storm and in front of good sorts like Aesterius and Mr Lightside. It would appear, on that, she’s not done yet, and I can see this test suiting her well. We know she acts on fast ground at Ascot so that’s not a concern, and with the handicapper leaving her alone after York when he could have very easily given her another couple of pounds, 25-1 looks a price I can get involved with. 

And finally… We come to the 2024 Queen Mary third Maw Lam. Now, at first glance she’s a harder one to love, as her form this year hasn’t been as good as it was last year; but I think you can find excuses - not that she needs one for her seasonal reappearance, a fifth in the Fred Darling, a perfectly acceptable effort. At Cork next time, she didn’t get the best of runs as she came from the rear but still finished sixth, and at Haydock last time she ran too free, and was a spent force late. With Jack Nicholls taking a useful 7lb off, she looks on a fair mark and, like Miss Lamai, we know these conditions suit her well. 40/1? Yep, add her to the shortlist…

Three against the field: Brosay 22/1, Miss Lamai 18/1, Maw Lam 40/1

 

Royal Ascot Tix Picks 2025, Day 3

/in , , /by

This week, as part of our Royal Ascot content, I'm making a suggested placepot permutation each day.

It started well on Tuesday: although the perm only caught 2% of the dividend, that was enough to return £58.11 from a £24.96 stake, including 5% Tix bonus. That's a profit of £33.15.

It got better yesterday: a £22.68 stake returned £146.47 from 13% of the dividend. That's two four-figure dividends we've managed to get a slice of, which is very, very hard using traditional 'caveman' perms. This is the beauty of ABCX and Tix!

With £47.64 staked and £204.58 returned, for a profit of £156.94, we'll be winning better than £100 from Tix and placepots on the week (no Tix Picks on Saturday).

Gold Cup day, Thursday, looks super tricky. But remember, there's another prize giveaway today - see below.

I'll be using the ABCX approach, outlined here, and some online software called Tix which I built in conjunction with Nige, the guy who coded most of the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools. [It is excellent software, though I say so myself]

Basically, I'm creating a number of different placepot bets based around how strongly I fancy various horses; and I'm weighting my stakes accordingly.

When I say 'I', I mean Tix is doing all of that; I'm just picking horses and choosing whether they're A (strongest fancy), B (fair chance) or C (dark horse/lively outsider). X are the horses I'm discarding from contention.

Tix Bonus

Every winning ticket placed through Tix benefits from a 5% bonus return. Win £100? You'll get £105. Win £500? Enjoy an extra £25. Just for placing your bets through Tix.

Prizes to be won

And, because it's Royal Ascot week, we've got some Tix prizes to give away.

Tuesday to Friday / Saturday

For the first four days of the Royal meeting, the Tix player with the highest return on investment on a single ticket will win £50.

On the final day of Royal Ascot, Saturday, the Tix player netting top ROI will win £100, credited to their tote account.

So that's £300 in prizes this week!

Congratulations to Mick C, who won £50 on Tuesday; and to Paul M, who won £50 yesterday.

What do you need?

You simply need a tote account. Get one here if you don't already have one. [You'll probably be eligible for extra bonuses when signing up, but obviously do check the T's and C's]

**

To day three. It's risky banking on the the favourite in the opener but, if not there, then where?

Leg 1 - Norfolk Stakes:

Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore have won the two main juvenile races so far this week and have odds-on Charles Darwin here. But odds-on Whistlejacket was off the ticket for him last year, and they've missed the board every year since Land Force was third in 2018, including with three favourites. Karl Burke's recent record in the race is excellent and, though he's not hit the heights with his juveniles this week yet, Naval Light could change that. I'm taking a bigger chance than the market suggests because I need bullets to fire elsewhere. Will be place laying Charles Darwin to cover at least a part of my stakes.

A - 3 Charles Darwin
B - 1 Afjan, 13 Naval Light
C - 5 Comical Boy, 7 First Legion, 12 London Boy, 14 Sandal's Song, 16 Wise Approach, Unnamed favourite

Leg 2 - King George V Stakes:

As Rory very well articulated in his preview of this race, low is generally unfavoured with middle to high the places to be. Only Hukum (stall 4) has won this from lower than stall 8 (of 16 and 19 runners), and Hukum went on to win two Group 1's, including the King George itself over the same course and distance! You have to be good to overcome a low post. Hoping the market has this right.

A - 5 Serious Contender, 6 Sing Us A Song, 8 Merchant

Leg 3 - Ribblesdale Stakes:

The one I wanted to be with, Garden Of Eden, is friendless this morning; that said, the market seems utterly clueless here with the top six all mainly pink on the odds grids. I'm guessing here and using plenty of ammo.

A - 1 Caspi Star, 2 Catalina Delcarpio, 4 Garden Of Eden, 9 Life Is Beautiful

Leg 4 - Gold Cup:

Eight runners so we don't need any defections! On the face of it, this is a three horse race, with old boy Trawlerman the chuck out. But he is the proven one under these conditions and the trainers are in incedible form. I have had a good bet on the French horse, Candelari, but he'll never have raced on ground this quick; and Illinois is stepping up six furlongs in trip. Not trying to be clever here, just hoping to be lucky - may place lay Illinois to cover stakes if all eight run.

A - 8 Illinois
B - 4 Trawlerman

Leg 5 - Britannia Stakes:

Possibly the toughest race of the week. We're often looking at a midfield to held up runner drawn high, and that's the direction my prayer mat is facing. Hayley gave Docklands 'a Jamie' for Harry Eustace to win this a couple of years ago, and this time Jamie rides for Harry on La Botte (the barrel, used to be a great Italian restaurant in Boscombe). His form ties in with Field Of Gold through Cosmic Year, so he's an auto A. Teroomm is an obvious A pick, too, getting a hold up ride to notch the hat-trick last time and drawn highest of all.

Shout and Fearnot will come from further back, while Raafedd and Parole d'Oro have clear form claims if not optimal draw/run style profiles. This feels like 'goodnight Vienna' territory if we've not already put the cat out (hat tip to the late great Leonard Rossiter, for all that this show hasn't aged well - the jokes, of course, were all at his expense).

A - 2 La Botte, 8 Teroomm
B - 18 Fearnot, 22 Shout, 25 Raafedd, 26 Parole d'Oro
C - 6 Afentiko, 12 Consolidation, 15 Serengeti, 28 Brave Mission, 29 Arctic Grey

Leg 6 - Hampton Court Stakes:

Crikey, when will it end? Well, here, mercifully, as the sixth of six very challenging legs. Tornado Alert looks like he's been asking for ten furlongs all season, though he's backing up quickly after the Derby; Detain brings Prix du Jockey Club placed form but has to show he acts on very quick turf. Trinity College's form ties in with Detain's and he's solid if unspectacular - the sort that wins this race - and that'll do. Throwing some C's into the mix, too, because I fear middle to high might be slightly favoured.

A - 3 Detain, 13 Tornado Alert
B - 14 Trinity College
C - 2 Arabian Force, 5 Glittering Legend, 7 High Stock, 9 Reyenzi, Unnamed favourite

Full ticket view

The truth is that we'll definitely need to be lucky to score today, and on my own tickets - as well as these I've placed below - I'll be 'squeezing the topology', moving a couple more on to A in some places and taking risky bankers in others. But I'm happy to take a wider swipe and try to limit stakes here to £25. Anyhoo...

For pennies today, stakes are £25.44.

Full disclosure: as always, even if this perm gets 'winning' tickets, there's a chance it pays less than the total stakes. We're really trying to get something interesting to happen at some point in the sequence!

The full A (green) B (yellow) C (tan) view looks like this:

 

 

And the breakdown by ticket is like this:

 

 

Remember, you need to have a placed selection in each leg on at least one ticket. That means at least four races with A picks placing.

Place your Tix bets here - and you'll be in line for a 5% bonus on winning tickets, and a chance to win £50 daily through Royal Ascot.

Royal Ascot 2025: Day 3 Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

Into 'hump day', better known as Gold Cup day, or Ladies' Day - or even Thursday, or Day 3 - we go. The marathon Group 1 is the feature and, with the weather set fair it will be riding quick, so let's get straight to it.

2.30 THE NORFOLK STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Victor Value

The Norfolk Stakes is a Group 2 run over five furlongs. First run in 1843, it was renamed in 1973 in honour of the 16th Duke of Norfolk, Queen Elizabeth II’s Representative at Ascot from 1945 to 1972. The race achieved its Group 2 status in 2006.

Trends to Note

In recent years, this race has sprung the odd huge surprise. The Ridler (2022) scored at 50/1, and the following year Valiant Force (2023) won at 150/1!

I’m not digging deep into trends today, but from a draw perspective it’s worth noting that horses drawn 11+ are 0 winners from 37 runners, 6 places. That’s an interesting trend given the Exp/Wins=3.28 for those runners.

Contenders

Sixteen have been declared for this year’s Norfolk Stakes, and the first thing that stands out is that short-priced favourite Charles Darwin is drawn in stall 15.

After a good look, just four runners have made my final shortlist:

Charles Darwin: Trained by Aidan O’Brien, the son of No Nay Never has made all to win his last two (of three) starts at Navan. Looked a high-class juvenile last time, visually impressive, and the time backed that up. At a best-priced 13/8 on Tuesday afternoon, he looked value based on form good enough to win the last five renewals. The only negative is his high draw.

Sandal’s Song: Overcame a slow start to show good speed when winning on debut at Gulfstream Park (firm ground). A sprinting type on looks, he’s been purchased by Wathnan Racing, and if he handles a straight track, I think he’ll go very close. Triner George Weaver saddled the 2023 Queen Mary winner, subsequently bought by Wathnan, so he knows what is required to win a Royal Ascot juvenile contest.

Naval Light (Karl Burke): Bought for 360,000 gns at the Craven Breeze-ups by Wathnan Racing. Finished second to Old Is Gold in the Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley on racecourse debut. He was slowly away that day and ran green in the early stages of the race but once the penny dropped, finished off well. Burke won this last year with a colt who had won the Beverley race. Retained jockey James Doyle opts for him over Sandal’s Song with James McDonald riding the latter which is no negative.

Afjan: The speedy son of Mehmas overcame greenness to win on debut at Chantilly 18 days ago. He produced a high-class turn of foot to win that day and is open to plenty of improvement. I was impressed with this success, and I think the stiffer Ascot 5f will suit.

Norfolk Stakes Verdict

I only fancy four of the 16 runner’s - cue a big- priced winner like The Ridler or Valiant Force!  I will be quite surprised if one of that quartet doesn’t win. Charles Darwin’s form is rock solid and he’s a worthy favourite. However, I want to take him on because of the draw and his price. His nearest market rival is Naval Light who will win races this season and most likely at Group level.  However, I was hoping for better than a best priced 4/1.  At bigger odds I prefer American challenger Sandal’s Song - he looks a big price to me - and French-trained colt Afjan.

Selection: Afjan – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3.05 THE KING GEORGE V STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Rory Delargy

Despite being over a mile and a half and with the low stalls on the inside these days (it wasn’t ever thus), there is no advantage to be drawn in single figures in the King George V Handicap (or the Duke of Edinburgh over the same track and trip for the three-year-olds); and, to demonstrate, I’ve compiled the results by draw since 2001, which shows that nine horses have won the race from single figure draws, but that ten have won from stall 15 or higher in the same timeframe. So punters should consider those drawn high to be at some sort of advantage, for all that may seem to defy conventional wisdom. In reality, the stiff track confers no advantage to front runners, and those coming from off the pace tend to fan out from the inner rail in the straight, with travelling a little further no hardship in the grand scheme of things.

That isn’t to say that you can’t win from a low draw, but those who do are rarely helped by a position near the rail, except in the rare circumstance where the fastest ground is on the far rail, as it was in 2022, when the race was dominated by those who sat handily. The first six home in the Norfolk Stakes that year were all drawn low, and if that is repeated then you should take note. When the draw on the straight course favours high numbers, then that tends to be repeated on the round course, too, and early signs are that will be the case this year.

It's possible to make all from a wide draw, although those who have done so have tended to keep off the inside rail until near the turn, and recent years have shown a bias towards strong-staying hold-up performers from high-to-mid berths. Last year Going The Distance (stall 18) beat Neski Sherelski (19) and if you listened to Simon Holt’s commentary, you’ll notice that they are called as the last pair to reach the home turn. In 2023, Desert Hero (21) had three or four behind him on the home turn before winning. In contrast the last three positions that year were filled by horses drawn wide who were up with the pace.

On the face of it, Sing Us A Song is likely to be one of the front runners here having made all to win on his handicap debut at Sandown last time, but I think that James Doyle will be more patient than Hector Crouch was there. Sing Us A Song gallops like a stayer and Crouch took him forward last time to utilise his stamina over a trip which is a minimum for him, fending off challenges in the straight and never stronger than up the climb to the line at Sandown.

Given the extra demands on stamina here, there is no need to be aggressive on Sing Us A Song, who strikes me as the type to take another leap forward in form terms for this stiffer test and I hope that Doyle allows him to find his stride in the early stages before launching a bid from off the pace. He is a full-brother to the ill-fated Sir Erec, who was placed in the British Champions Long Distance Cup as a three-year-old and a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, but sadly broke a leg when favourite for the Triumph Hurdle. His dam is also a half-sister to Mahler, who was placed in the St Leger and Melbourne Cup, so all the signs are that this trip and further are going to bring out the best in him. I like him a lot.

Recommendation: Sing Us A Song (Win/Each-way) at 8/1 with bet365 (5 places)

 

3.40 THE RIBBLESDALE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A mile and a half for three-year-old fillies - an Ascot Oaks if you will. Being so close to the original (and still the best) Epsom variant means we only have one filly - Go Go Boots - coming here from there, and she's not especially fancied by the market. The top three from the betting lists have fared well enough - bagging eight of the last twelve Ribblesdales between them - but the jolly has only two wins in that time.

Aidan and Johnny G (now with Thady G as well) have won most of that dozen, three-quarters in fact, the Ballydoyle man owning most recent bragging rights as he and Ryan Moore have paired up to take the most recent two renewals. Not since Lady Cecil's Riposte won in 2013 has a filly unraced at two won the Ribblesdale, which might be a concern for the top two in the current lists, Serenity Prayer and Catalina Delcarpio.

Serenity Prayer is trained by Andrew Balding and won a traditionally strong Newbury fillies' maiden on debut before beating all bar Whirl in the Musidora, the key Oaks trial, at York last time. Nevertheless, she was more than five lengths inferior to the winner on the Knavesmire though it should of course be noted that Whirl all but won the Oaks, beaten just a neck. After just two starts she can be expected to stride forward on what she's shown to date.

Go Go Boots was only a neck behind Serenity Prayer at York and, if she just didn't handle Epsom, she is over-priced.

The same is true of Catalina Delcarpio whose form figures of 12 mirror Serenity's. She's trained by Paddy Twomey, and also won a maiden easily - at Leopardstown in her case - before running second in a Group 3. That form has not worked out well, though the winner was fourth at Epsom and most of the rest were beaten far enough.

The Moore / O'Brien axis is represented by a far more experienced filly in Garden Of Eden. She's been second and first in a brace of Listed contests either side of her winter break, but was well enough beaten in a couple of mile Group 3's at the start of this term. Stepping up to ten furlongs last time, she led all the way in the Naas Oaks Trial; her pedigree hardly screams she wants to go further but who am I to second guess the great man?

John and Thady run two more candidates as well as Go Go Boots, led by Life Is Beautiful. Thrice raced, she won a Kempton maiden on debut before running second to a nice filly in a novice back at the same track (both mile races). Upped to a mile and a quarter last time saw her run up again, behind the unbeaten Coronation Stakes favourite Falakeyah.

Understudy may be just that here. She's got a lovely staying pedigree - by Sea The Stars out of a Selkirk mare - but this is huge leap in grade from a Class 5 Southwell novice. Still, she's bound to be capable of better in time.

Charlie Johnston saddled Caspi Star to be third to Oaks winner Minnie Hauk in the Cheshire Oaks. She was beaten half the distance Serenity Prayer was by Whirl, with Minnie Hauk edging that one out, so 10/1 this lass feels more attractive than 3/1 the jolly. She's improved a stone and more in two runs since getting bested by Lady Vivian, though that one has also stepped forward and doubled up in a handicap at the Chester May meeting last time.

Aidan O'Brien also runs Ecstatic and Island Hopping, the former another experienced filly for whom excuses can be made the last couple of starts: messy race, no run at Newbury and may not have handled the soft turf at Navan the time before. She does need them, however. Island Hopping was behind Garden Of Eden in Listed class last time but may be slightly more stoutly bred and may also be enlivened by the first time blinkers.

Suggestion: I think the percentage play is Garden Of Eden at around 5/1 win only despite the stamina reservation. She did seem to improve for the extra quarter mile last time and, if she can do likewise for a further two-eights, she's value against the inexperienced pair atop the market. Caspi Star at 10's might be an interesting small each way play based on her Chester run..

 

4.20 THE GOLD CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A smallish field of eight line up for the Blue Riband and, in the absence of the sadly retired Kyprios, it's a more open contest than might otherwise have been the case. The question is, does Aidan O'Brien have a ready made replacement for his injured star stayer in the shape of Illinois?

Four-year-old have won all bar four of the last dozen Gold Cups, and of the quartet of older winners, three were repeaters who'd won prevoiusly aged four - Kyprios once and Stradivarius twice. Without a repeater, the youngest eligible age group looks the right focus. It's another race where Messrs O'Brien and the Gosdens have something of a hegemony with both well invested this time around.

The favourite, Illinois, comes from Ballydoyle and is from the penultimate crop of mega-sire Galileo. Winner of the Queen's Vase this time last year, he finished the season with second in the St Leger; this season's pipe opener was a cosy success in the Ormonde Stakes and he comes here in fine fettle, the second from Chester going a place better at York last weekend. This is, however, a step up in trip and in class, Illinois never having raced beyond the extended mile and three quarters of the St Leger. He seems an uncomplicated sort so ought to give himself every chance of relaxing into a good rhythm, though he does usually race handily.

Second choice is the Gosdens' Trawlerman, a perennial forward goer. He stays well and acts on quick turf as he showed when a length behind Kyprios in the race last year, a repeat of which would likely be good enough to take top honours this time around. He won by five lengths on his return from Dubai, in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last month. He's likely to bid to make all but, at seven years young, time may not be on his side against less exposed rivals.

One of those is the French raider Candelari, trained by Francis-Henri Graffard. He made his debut on the all-weather through the winter before seamlessly reverting to turf; his second grass spin, last time out, was a staying on win in the almost two miles Prix Vicomtesse Vigier, a Group 1. A feature of his races is switching off and rattling home late: he'll not have too much time to gather his thoughts in the short home straight at Ascot but he looks like he'll relish the extra range. This will be just his sixth career start so there's probably more in the lockeur.

It would be a shock, to me at least, if any of the rest were to win. Sweet William was five lengths behind Trawlerman last term and is a year older now; Wonder Legend improve 16lb on the all-weather through the winter but this is big ask (he's vaguely interesting e/w); and I don't expect the veterans Coltrane, Yashin or Dubai Future to, well, have a future, in the context of this G1 at any rate.

Illinois might be the one but he's a fair bit to prove at his sub-2/1 quote. I think Trawlerman likely just sets it up for a younger closer - though fair play to him if I'm wrong on that; and so the one I'm siding with is Frenchie Candelari, whose chance will depend to some degree on Mikael Barzelona getting his fractions right. He doesn't always. Will it be Ooh la la! or Zut alors?!

Suggestion: Back CANDELARI to win at 10/3 (or 3/1 or better).

 

5.00 THE BRITANNIA STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by David Massey

The Thirsk piece of form where Terroom beat Parole D’Oro is where I’m going to start this form guide for the Brittania, as the pair of them feature highly towards the top of the market, and I think it might be a strong piece of form. 

Terroom came out on top by ¾l that day, but Parole D’Oro travelled like the best horse (traded 1.03 in the run) and just couldn’t quite finish the job off. Terroom went on to show the form as solid by winning again at Haydock, beating Tilted Kilt ¾l.

Going back to Thirsk, Parole D’Oro was giving Terroom 2lb that day, yet gets 4lb today, plus there’s the addition of a tongue tie, which you’d like to think would help him see it out a little stronger. That 6lb turnaround in the weights makes me think Parole d’Oro can reverse form today, and I like where he’s berthed, in stall 24, with a potential pace angle in The Lost King next door in 25 to give him a tow into it.

At 33s and bigger, despite what looks a moderate draw, Mr Chaplin has to be on the shortlist too. We liked him a lot, physically, when winning a nursery at Glorious Goodwood last year (paddock pick) and, off the back of that, he took his chance against The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court in the Group 3 Acomb at York. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he was unable to land a blow against such classy opposition but ran respectably and was spotted running on late. He tried making all in the Flying Scotsman on his final start of last year and on the figures ran his best race of the season to finish fourth. 

He didn’t reappear until May this season when eighth at Goodwood but that doesn’t begin to tell the story, as he was in a good position to challenge two furlongs out but was constantly denied a run up the rail - a horror story we’re all too familiar with at that track - and in the end, Richard Kingscote accepted the situation and allowed him to come home in his own time. He lost multiple places late as a result, and to me he shaped as if he retains all of his ability. A mile today is a new test for him but the way he finished off at Goodwood when winning over seven suggests he might even improve a bit for it. If the draw does beat him today, keep him in mind for something similar in the near future. 

Middle draws certainly didn’t hamper the chances of anyone on Day One, and Raafedd’s stall 14, smack in the middle, looks a very good place to work from. You couldn’t help but be impressed with the way he beat Accentuate at Newbury last time out, leading a full two furlongs out, then powering clear and geared down to win two lengths. The second did the form no harm when scoring by three lengths at Windsor last week, giving the form a very solid look, and the time figure for Raafedd’s win at Newbury was good too. 

This step up to a mile will surely suit him even better, and there has to be more to come from this son on Teofilo, you fancy. He rounds out my three against the field for the race. 

Three against the field: Parole d'Oro 11/1, Raafedd 11/1, Mr Chaplin 33/1

 

5.35 THE HAMPTON COURT STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

TRENDS

A typical Hampton Court winner has yet to win at Group level (15 of the last 15 winners), has an official rating of 103+ (14/15), has raced 3-6 times in their career (14/15), came from the top 4 in the betting (13/15) and returned less than 8/1 (14/15). 13 of the last 15 winners had won at least one of their last three starts and had finished top 6 in all of those three starts (14/15).

3 of the last 15 winners last raced at Epsom (from just 9 such runners).

In the last 15 years, all 22 runners that had their last start in a class 3-5 race, all 15 horses that last ran in the 2000 Guineas, all 12 horses that last ran in a Group 2, and all 6 horses that last ran on the all-weather have been beaten.

RACE ANALYSIS:

A cracking looking race with the Aidan O'Brien French Derby 4th Trinity College heading the betting. With the first six home that day finishing in a heap, and with just a length and a half covering them all, it's hard to say what the form's worth. On his previous start Trinity College had been beaten by the now re-opposing Sea Scout at Epsom and, with that rival trading as a 66/1 outsider here, that's either a great price on him or a worthless piece of form. With Sea Scout subsequently finishing 8th in the Dante and 11th in the Derby I'm leaning towards the latter.

Traditionally this is a race for those who missed the Derby due to stamina doubts or those that did run in the Derby but failed to get home.

One horse who the latter definitely applies to is the 2000 Guineas 4th TORNADO ALERT who looks an absolutely massive price if over his Derby exertions from just 12 days ago. A staying on 4th at Newmarket over a mile, where he was just four lengths off Field of Gold, he was doing some good work late on and caught the eye of a lot of expert judges. His trainer was happy to talk up his chances for the Derby but, on the day, the 1m4f trip seemed to find him out and he patently didn't stay the last couple of furlongs.

He looks sure to appreciate the drop back to this intermediate 10f trip and he is one of the few runners in the field with genuine Group 1 form. He scores highly on the trends and his trainer won this in 2017 (stable have had just one runner in the race since) with a 113-rated horse that came here on the back of a 5th in the Derby. Top international jockey James McDonald is booked and there's so much to like about his chances I'll be shocked if he isn't involved at the finish.

SELECTION: TORNADO ALERT 1pt EW

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6.10 THE BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

This race was taken off the calendar in 2015 but reinstated in 2020. Hence in terms of trends I am looking at the last ten renewals, which cover 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024.

10-year trends

Market

Just one win for horses from the top four of the betting. (English Oak last year when fav).

Six winners priced between 12/1 and 18/1; the other three were 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1.

 

Age

4yos have won five of the last ten but they have provided 40% of the total runners. 4yos do have the best placed record (double other age groups combined).

7yos and older have a poor record win 0 wins and just 5 places from 47 runners.

 

LTO Price

Seven of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter on their most recent start. This equates to 70% of the winners from 40% of the total runners.

 

Draw

The number of runners each year has fluctuated between 23 and 29 runners so for my draw analysis I am using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail.  Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.

Looking at the last 10 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account,  so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

Draw position in relation to stands rail PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5  stalls away 0.58 0.59
6 to 10  stalls away 0.61 0.64
11 to 15  stalls away 0.45 0.49
16 to 20  stalls away 0.47 0.48
21 or more stalls away 0.42 0.44

 

As the numbers show horses drawn within ten stalls of the stands’ rail have had a significant edge in this race over the past ten years.

 

Run Style

Now I am looking at the PRBs for each run style group based on the last ten years. The splits are:

 

Run Style PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group 0.49 0.49
Prominent 0.37 0.42
Mid Division 0.52 0.53
Held up 0.57 0.58

 

Based on these past figures, hold up horses have had the edge here, followed by mid pack runners. Indeed, eight of the last ten winners came from one of these two run styles.

Onto my favoured candidates:

Never So Brave – Now with Andrew Balding having formerly been with Sir Michael Stoute. He has had one run this season at Chester where he pulled far too hard and then had to be switched just over a furlong from home. Was the fastest finisher in the field that day running 0.23 secs quicker than anything else in the final furlong. Finished second but should have won. He has been raised 4lb which looks fair. Is drawn next to English Brave in 28 and has the assistance of the excellent Oisin Murphy in the saddle. Often races prominently but hopefully he will be ridden with a little more restraint.

English Oak – He won this race last year extremely impressively off a handicap mark of 99. He is one 1lb higher here. That performance was rated at 114 by Racing Post Ratings. Since then, he has failed to register a win in seven starts but his last run when sixth at Newbury showed some promise in a race that was slowly run. Last year, this race was run at a very strong pace and despite there being no genuine front runners in the field one would expect the same again here which will play to his strengths. Draw 27 should be OK.

No Retreat – He ran well at the start of the year in Dubai winning a decent handicap at Meydan in February before finishing a neck second to Silver Sword at the same track in an even better handicap three weeks later. He was down to run in the Victoria Cup last month but was withdrawn on the morning of the race. He then went to Haydock where he finished a decent third. No Retreat has been very consistent, always making the top three throughout his career. He races off 97 which is 3lbs higher than his Dubai second mentioned above and he looks overpriced at around 25/1. The draw in 1 though is a concern, unless earlier straight track races suggest otherwise. Has raced midfield / near the back in four of his last five runs so hopefully we see the same tactics employed here.

Gorak – At a big price Gorak is interesting. He ran in the race in 2023 and 2024 finishing 12th both times. However, he had valid excuses both times. In 2024 he was badly drawn but was a close up second on his part of the track. In 2023 he stuck to the stands rail and finished first of six in his group, but the centre of the course was strongly favoured that day. If he gets a run he will be drawn 10 which is still lower than ideal, but the likely price will compensate.

 

Conclusion

English Oak would win this easily if back to last year’s form but at 5/1 or thereabouts the price is just too tight IMO.

 

Suggestion

Never So Brave e/w at 8/1 and No Retreat e/w at 25/1

If Gorak runs has a small e/w saver at around 33/1

Several bookies are going six places (Bet 365, Betfred, Boyal Sports, Corals, Paddy Power to name but five), seven places with Sky Bet.

 

 

Royal Ascot Tix Picks 2025, Day 2

/in , , /by

This week, as part of our Royal Ascot content, I'm making a suggested placepot permutation each day.

It started well on Tuesday: although the perm only caught 2% of the dividend, that was enough to return £58.11 from a £24.96 stake, including 5% Tix bonus. That's a profit of £33.15.

Let's get to Wednesday, Day 2. And remember, there's another prize giveaway today - see below.

I'll be using the ABCX approach, outlined here, and some online software called Tix which I built in conjunction with Nige, the guy who coded most of the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools. [It is excellent software, though I say so myself]

Basically, I'm creating a number of different placepot bets based around how strongly I fancy various horses; and I'm weighting my stakes accordingly.

When I say 'I', I mean Tix is doing all of that; I'm just picking horses and choosing whether they're A (strongest fancy), B (fair chance) or C (dark horse/lively outsider). X are the horses I'm discarding from contention.

Tix Bonus

Every winning ticket placed through Tix benefits from a 5% bonus return. Win £100? You'll get £105. Win £500? Enjoy an extra £25. Just for placing your bets through Tix.

Prizes to be won

And, because it's Royal Ascot week, we've got some Tix prizes to give away

Tuesday to Friday

For the first four days of the Royal meeting, the Tix player with the highest return on investment on a single ticket will win £50.

Saturday

On the final day of Royal Ascot, the Tix player netting top ROI will win £100, credited to their tote account.

So that's £300 in prizes this week!

What do you need?

You simply need a tote account. Get one here if you don't already have one. [You'll probably be eligible for extra bonuses when signing up, but obviously do check the T's and C's]

**

OK, that's the set up. Let's get to it. The first question is where to go narrow and where to spread out. My inclination was to be narrow in the Group 1's but the Queen Anne and King Charles III are very open, and I hate the 'seven runner with an odds on' feel of the St James's Palace!

Leg 1 - Queen Mary Stakes:

After yesterday's Coventry, it's tempting to bank on True Love, whose form with Gstaad stands out, as does her high draw. But I'll throw in Lennilu and Zelaina on B, too. Mind you, the first three home last year were 22/1, 50/1, 50/1..!

A - 23 True Love
B - 11 Lennilu, 25 Zelaina

Leg 2 - Queen's Vase:

There is a lot of confidence behind the French raider, Asmarani, but I prefer Shackleton and Carmers. Devil's Advocate has the form but not the proven stamina.

A - 3 Carmers, 10 Shackleton

Leg 3 - Duke Of Cambridge Stakes:

The mile trip is a bit on the short side for the very smart Cinderella's Dream but she does have an electric gear change which is just the ticket for this. She's an A banker, fingers crossed.

A - 1 Cinderella's Dream

Leg 4 - Prince Of Wales's Stakes:

Anmaat is too old on trends but bang there on form. A. Los Angeles fits on both. Also A. Hard to see them both off the ticket. Facteur Cheval is an interesting outsider and I might back him win/place on the tote: he'll pay overs.

A - 1 Anmaat, 5 Los Angeles

Leg 5 - Royal Hunt Cup:

Tricky, tricky, tricky. I'm scattering here. My ante post bet was Tokenomics and he's on A, along with all the favourites, and Ancient Rome (Charlie Hills has won this twice since 2019 and it looks like a Jamie Spencer special). Plenty more on B plus unnamed favourite.

A - 5 Qiraat, 6 Ancient Rome, 14 The Liffey, 23 Fox Legacy, 27 My Cloud, 29 Tokenomics
B - 1 Arabian Light, 16 Ebt's Guard, 19 Bullet Point, 25 Greek Order, Unnamed favourite

Leg 6 - Kensington Palace Stakes:

Another tough leg, and should bolster the dividend. Rainbows Edge and Serialise are well(ish) drawn fancied runners and go on A. I'll add Arolla to A, too. Snellen and Sky Safari and Arisaig on B. Nine on C, including unnamed favourite - we'll need to have gone all A's for these C's to count!

A - 1 Rainbows Edge, 3 Arolla, 17 Serialise
B - 2 Snellen, 4 Arisaig, 18 Sky Safari
C - 6, 7, 9, 10, 15, 21, 23, 24, UNF

Full ticket view

I've gone very narrow early in hope of having some funds to splurge in the last two legs. Fair chance we're sunk before that, but that's the game, right?

For pennies, with 2p's (x4) on the A ticket, it comes to £22.68 stakes. A single placed entry from A in each leg gives an 8p winning line, but of course it's possible to get more than one in each.

Full disclosure: as always, even if this perm gets 'winning' tickets, there's a chance it pays less than the total stakes. We're really trying to get something interesting to happen at some point in the sequence!

The full A (green) B (yellow) C (tan) view looks like this:

 

 

And the breakdown by ticket is like this:

 

 

Remember, you need to have a placed selection in each leg on at least one ticket. That means at least four races with A picks placing.

Place your Tix bets here - and you'll be in line for a 5% bonus on winning tickets, and a chance to win £50 daily through Royal Ascot.

Royal Ascot 2025: Day 2 Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

It's Day Two, Wednesday, at the Royal Ascot jamboree and we're blessed once more with a magnificent seven races headlined by the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes for older horses over a mile and quarter. As with each weekday of the Royal meeting, I'm sharing preview responsibilities with a collective of talented and shrewd racing writers. Still, it's me on the kick off legs and we start with some classy young fillies in the...

2.30 THE QUEEN MARY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A massive field of 25 juvenile fillies go to post for the five furlong Queen Mary Stakes. Most have had just one, or perhaps two, runs so form is thin on the ground; virtually all of them will be capable of more than they've shown so far. So how do choose among them? We could try some trends.

The first thing I noticed was a draw angle. In the last ten years, field sizes have ranged from 17 to 26. The winner in 2023 was drawn 26 of 26. The year before she was in 17 of 21; in 2021, she was 21 of 21; in Covid year, of course, the winner was drawn 1 of 18!; and before that, 22 of 25, 16 of 22, 20 of 23, 14 of 17, and 17 of 20. These are 'actual' stall positions after accounting for non-runners.

Last year's winner, Leovanni, exited stall 10, and the second - a 50/1 shot - departed from stall 22 of 24. It probably helps to be high, or at least close to either rail (though, given jockeys tend to race together, that probably still means high). Clear as mud?

In spite of the enormous fields, the first or second favourite has won six times and returned a profit on level stakes.

An American-trained filly has won four times in the last decade, most recently George Weaver's Crimson Advocate in 2023. Karl Burke has won two of the last three Queen Mary renewals, and his three entries were 3rd/5th/7th of 26 in the non-winning year.

The last eight winners all had a prominent run style, and the other two in the ten year trends led.

Five of the last ten winners were unbeaten in one before the race; only the Wes Ward speedball Lady Aurelia, in 2015, had yet to win, and even three outsiders (18/1, 22/1 and 25/1) were last day scorers.

Those are some reasonable angles to go at. The high drawn last day winners are America and Viamarie, both big prices. The top two in the market are Zelaina, trained by Karl Burke for last year's winning owner, Wathnan Racing, and American raider Lennilu, trained by Pat Biancone. Both fancied fillies are drawn middle, which didn't stop Leovanni last year but may be sub-optimal. I'll also throw in Secret Hideaway and Harry's Girl, whose form looks strong.

Karl Burke runs two this time, Zelaina being much the more obvious. As a £650,000 breeze up purchase she's entitled to be fast and she lived up to that billing when sprinting away from her field on debut at Nottingham, eventually scoring by almost three lengths. The time wasn't dazzling and she got a highly efficient ride (finishing speed percentage was 100.85%) but it was visually very impressive: quick from the gate, travelled strongly, pulled clear. She's just not much of a price.

The US filly, Lennilu, started with a win on the slop at Keeneland before shipping down to Florida for a turf stakes race. She showed good early speed there - perenially a feature of American entries at Royal Ascot - and galloped right through the line. That was a flat five around a bend, however, and this is a straight five with a stiff finish. I expect she'll be typically front rank through three furlongs and then who knows? Luis Saez, one of the world's best riders, makes his British debut.

While we're guessing as to the substance of the form with those once raced fillies, Harry's Girl has run twice and winners have emerged from her encounters. Of the two runs, her second in the Marygate has been advertised with the three subsequent runners - having finished 6th, 8th and 9th at York - all winning. But the Marygate winner and third, Secret Hideaway and Love Olivia, the latter being Burke's other entry, also rock up for this dance.

Love Olivia blazed the trail in the Marygate but was spent by the time Secret Hideaway, trained by Adrian Keatley, wore down Harry's Girl (Richard Hannon) in the last strides having been off the speed for much of the race. It's likely the winner is the best of the three and I'm a little surprised she's a longer price than the filly she beat. They're drawn adjacent, in 18 and 19, which is ostensibly a positive for both. It's worth noting that the Marygate winner has won the Queen Mary four times since 2006.

In the long grass - it's a race that has rewarded such boldness on occasion - Viamarie comes from the Kempton poly to the Ascot turf which can kindly be described as an unfashionable route. But she showed a lot of late speed that day having been slowest from the gate. She'd need to improve her start, which she ought to given the benefit of that experience, and she'll be running on late, though perhaps/probably too late.

Brian Meehan has run 26 juveniles at Royal Ascot since 2009, winning twice (including 80/1 Rashabar in last year's Coventry) and notching a second, three thirds and a fifth placed finish. As such, his America is not without hope. She was only third on debut, in a 6f Yarmouth maiden, seeming not to quite get home. The fourth and seventh, as well as America herself, have won since. Dropped to the fairly stiff five furlongs at Bath last time, she showed good mid-race speed to take the lead and ran on gamely. The second won next time. Stall 24 might help her cause.

True Love's form was given an almighty boost yesterday, with her last day conqueror and stablemate Gstaad bolting up in the Coventry. She was only three-quarters of a length behind him, a literal interpretation of which means she's home for all money. But Aidan has not fared well in the Queen Mary: it's one of the few Royal Ascot non-handicaps he's never won.

Society Kiss, a maiden winner over course and distance, and Staya, another punchy breeze up purchase who won her sole start, at Yarmouth, are others to consider in a race where we'll all be wiser afterwards!

Suggestion: Try small win savers on Lennilu at 15/2 and Staya at 12/1, and a slightly bolder each way play on Secret Hideaway at 22/1 (5 places with Sky/PP). Hail (Queen) Mary players could do worse than throw a miniscule dart at America, 40/1 with 5 places. Naturally, the short-priced favourite might beat them all.

 

3.05 THE QUEEN'S VASE (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A baker's dozen is entered for the 1m6f Queen's Vase, Group 2 for three-year-olds. The race was run over two miles prior to 2017 when it also upgraded from Listed class to its current status.

Aidan O'Brien has won half of the most recent twelve renewals, though Illinois's win last year was the Ballydoyle maestro's first since 2020. Ryan Moore has ridden four of Aidan's five winners since 2015.

The longest priced winner since the race changes eight years ago was Kemari in 2021; he returned 15/2 second favourite. The top three in the betting have had the top spot on the podium in a scarcely relenting half nelson since 2003, only Sword Fighter - Aidan's non-Ryan-ridden winner - returning north of 15/2. For completeness, the 2007 winner, Mahler, was fourth favourite when winning at 7/1. The other 20 of the last 22 winners were all top three in the market.

Aloft in 2015 is the only winner since 2002 to start from a double figure stall, exiting 'actual' stall 10 of 13. Five of the last 12 winners were drawn 2-5.

Only two of the last twelve winners were held up, with two - including last year's scorer - making all and five more racing handily (three were mid-division).

So, on recent evidence, we're after a fancied horse from a lowish stall with a bit of tactical speed to hold a position in the front half of the field. The two which most obviously fit the bill are Shackleton and Carmers.

Shackleton is the Aidan/Ryan entry and about as obvious a bet as you will find all week. A son of Camelot, he's stepping up fully half a mile from a couple of ten furlong races where he was outpaced. He ought to have the gears to find a handy slot early from stall three and, though stamina is unproven, connections' fingerprints are all over this one.

Paddy Twomey send Carmers, an inexperienced but highly progressive sort who is two from two, both this season. He started out in a Ballinrobe maiden and followed up in a Navan Listed contest, easily by three lengths - both races so far over a mile and five. So no stamina doubts, some proven class and lots of upside potential. This is a bigger field, though, and a third career start in six weeks. He has a very similar profile to the 2023 winner, Gregory.

Francis-Henri Graffard sends the Aga Khan Estate's Sottsass colt Asmarani across la Manche, and he's another which was unraced at two. In three goes this year, he was second either side of a Saint-Cloud maiden score, most recently in a Group 3. All three runs were on soft or very soft, but it is presumed that the trainer believes he'll improve for better ground. He'll need to on the face of it.

The Gosdens have Devil's Advocate, a staying on fourth in the Dante at York when last seen. He's another for whom stamina is not assured, being by Too Darn Hot, a reasonable miler influence. His damsire is Nathaniel, which offer plenty more hope, and his half-brother was second at a mile and a half. Still not sure! Nevertheless, that Dante run is probably the best form shown so far notwithstanding that many will improve for the longer distance here.

I'm keeping this fairly simple and siding with SHACKLETON, with a small saver on Carmers. I'll let the rest beat me, which they very well might do...

Suggestion: Back Shackleton at 3/1 or bigger. Save on Carmers at 5/1 or bigger.

 

3.40 THE DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by David Massey

You have to say that, even with a 3lb penalty to carry for her Dahlia Stakes win, Cinderella’s Dream is going to be hard to beat here. 

She panned Elmalka 4½ lengths there and even though the latter is dropping back to a mile, which will help, it’s hard to see how she turns that form around. In any case, that was Cinderella’s Dream merely backing up what she’d shown in two previous starts, and she looks every bit as good at 4 as she did last year. She probably needs no more than a repeat of that Dahlia effort to come out on top, with her nearest rival on ratings, Fallen Angel, looking to bounce back after a lesser effort in the Lockinge. She looked very much in need of the run beforehand and sweated up badly,  so can possibly be forgiven, but you’d not want to see similar behaviour today. She’s going to be tried in a pair of cheekpieces after that below par Newbury effort, which might help her cause, but she just has a few question marks over her at present. 

Running Lion is of some interest now she drops back to a mile. Winner of this race last year, beating Laurel a ready two lengths, she’s been running perfectly well over further, her second in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp on Arc day as good a piece of form as anything she’s shown; but I think she’s best around this sort of trip, rather than further. Her form is very hit-and-miss, so the addition of cheekpieces could be a catalyst for her to return to her best, which would give her a fair chance. Definitely not an each-way bet, but a small saver on her at 8-1? I couldn’t put you off. 

One Look keeps progressing with every start and her ½ length second to Porta Fortuna in the Lanwades Stakes rates a very good effort. She tries hard, which I always think is half the battle won with fillies, and might not have finished improving yet. She’s been highly consistent, which isn’t something you can say for many of these, but the one time she tackled good to firm ground was a disappointment, so she does have that question to answer. 

Of those at double-figure prices, Soprano, who can’t have it quick enough, is probably the one that appeals most. There’s no doubt she has to take another step forward form-wise, but she at least comes here fit and running well after her win at Kempton in the Listed Snowdrop Fillies Stakes. She’s a keen-going sort and could be vulnerable late, but on what promises to be rattling fast ground, she could be a danger to all if allowed to bounce along on the front end with a soft lead. 

Selection: Cinderella's Dream at 2/1

 

4.20 THE PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Rory Delargy

Always one of the classiest contests of the entire week since being renewed in the late 1960’s, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes isn’t a race to look for shocks, with only two winners at double-digit odds since Lear Spear won at 20/1 in 1999 for David Elsworth and owner Raymond Tooth.

Continuous is likely to go to the front, but it’s far from certain he will make it an end-to-end gallop, as stablemate Los Angeles is at his best when close to the front end himself, and it’s likely Continuous will set easy enough fractions if allowed, with a view to allowing Los Angeles to get to the front early in the straight where he can get his challengers lining up for a fight. He was seen to excellent effect in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, leading two furlongs out and battling back after being headed by Anmaat.

He relishes a head-to-head and Ryan Moore would love a repeat of the tactics which saw him win at the Curragh, with Ascot’s stiff finish suiting the strong-staying Los Angeles down to the ground.
Anmaat won the Champion Stakes over C&D in the autumn and was having his first race since when narrowly denied by Los Angeles at the Curragh, and he could come forward for the run, which gives him claims of turning the tables. He travels strongly for all he can take a bit of time to hit full stride and although he was a 40/1 shot when scoring here in the autumn, there was no hint of fluke about the result, and his Group 1 record now reads two wins and a close second from three runs, having also taken the Prix d’Ispahan in 2023. He is a danger if Jim Crowley can keep Los Angeles and Ryan Moore in his cross-hairs.

Facteur Cheval has been placed in six of his 11 starts at the top level, but his only win in those races came in the Dubai Turf at Meydan last year. He was unplaced in the latest running of that race, and may not be quite the force of old at the age of six, so is passed over. Sea The Fire, on the other hand, looked better than ever when running away with the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York last time, and has been supplemented for this race at some cost. She has place claims, but seven runs at Group 1 level have failed to reap any reward, and that counts against her win claims.

Map of Stars has yet to race on ground quicker than good (according to Timeform) but ran well when second in the Prix Ganay last time and is another with place claims if handling slightly firmer turf. Ombudsman is stepping up in class after losing his unbeaten record in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last time and isn’t the easiest to weigh up. He is hard to dismiss given his largely progressive profile, and is worth including in exotics.

Win: Los Angeles
Exotics: Los Angeles & Anmaat (Reverse Exacta)
Los Angeles/Anmaat over Sea The Fire, Map of Stars, Ombudsman (Trifecta Box)

 

5.00 THE ROYAL HUNT CUP (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

Let me start by examining the 15-year trends for the Royal Hunt Cup.

 

Market factors

Four single figure priced winners, eleven double figure priced winners, nine of which were 16/1+ and six were 20/1+.

 

Weight

In terms of weight carried the ideal has been to be at the mid to lower end of the weights. If you work the average weight of the runners each year, horses carrying the average weight or lower have won 11 of the last 15 renewals.

 

Age

4yos have 10 wins from 184 runners (5.4%); 17% placed.

5yos have 3 wins from 105 runners (2.9%); 15% placed.

6yo and older have 2 wins from 140 runners (1.4%); 9% placed.

4yos clearly have the best record.

 

Draw

The draw in big field handicaps at Ascot on the straight track can really play a part, but this is the first big field handicap of the week so at this stage there are no strong clues. Looking at the last 15 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the ‘rags’. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account,  so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

Stalls PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5 0.44 0.44
6 to 10 0.47 0.53
11 to 15 0.52 0.59
16 to 20 0.59 0.63
21 to 25 0.48 0.53
26 to 30 0.49 0.51

 

It seems that middle draws of 11 to 20 have done best especially those drawn 16 to 20.

 

Run Style

I have taken a similar approach for run style looking at the PRBs for each group. These are:

 

Run Style PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group 0.40 0.44
Prominent 0.42 0.45
Mid Division 0.53 0.57
Held up 0.57 0.60

 

7 of the last 15 races have been won by hold-up horses and they have the best PRB figures too. This is the type of race where a midfield or back of the field sit early is preferable.

 

Recent form trends

11 of the last 15 winners finished in the top four LTO.

Horses that have won at least once in their last five starts have been twice as likely to win compared to those who have failed a register a win in their last five runs.

 

Analysis

I backed Volterra a few weeks back, but he has not been declared. Below are what I feel are the main players.

My Cloud – He has never been out of the first two in his five careers starts and is two from two this year. He is clearly progressing and despite being 15lb higher than the beginning of the year there is probably more to come. The price though is short for such a competitive race with a such a big field. Drawn 32.

Fox Legacy – He was a 12-length winner over 10f last year when trained by Sir Michael Stoute and he has switched to the Andrew Balding yard for this season. He won well on his reappearance over 9f at Newmarket and despite being raised 6lb he may have more to come. Tends to adopt a midfield run style which is a positive.  He has yet to win at a mile but four of the last eight winners of this race also had not won over this trip. Drawn 11 which should be ok.

Greek Order – Back in the UK after an unsuccessful time in the States, Greek Order has strong claims on his best form. His second in the 2023 Cambridgeshire when trained by the Charlton stable highlights his ability and his potential claims here, especially if adopts his normal hold up style. He is now with Michael Bell who is having his best season by far for many years. I noted money at 70s on Betfair in the not-too-distant past but that was immediately snapped up and the price has just continued to drop and drop. Drawn 30. Based on the current price it is not a bet for me anymore, but I expect a decent run.

For those looking for a huge price that may offer each way value there are two that I can see running well.

La Trinidad – La Trinidad tends to ply his trade in handicaps up North. His record on good to firm ground is four wins and three placed from 12 runs and amazingly he is five wins from six in the month of June. He is now an 8yo which is a negative race trend, but he actually seems to be improving. His two runs this year have seen two decent third placed efforts, and last year he won off 92 and 96 – his two highest winning marks. His hold up style is a positive and looks well berthed in 18. With plenty of bookmakers offering extra places, he may sneak into one of those at big odds.

Epictetus -  He was rated as high as 113 in 2023 when trained by the Gosdens and won a Group 3 and was not disgraced in a couple of runs at Group 2 level. 2024 saw him run just twice and both were disappointing. Now with Jamie Osborne he was 5th to My Cloud LTO beaten around 5 lengths on his reappearance in May. He’s down to a mark of 101 so if he comes on for that run then as with La Trinidad, at big odds, he looks to be one for those bookies offering extra places. Drawn in 29 and he is likely to be played late by Saffie.

 

Suggestion

Half stake on

Fox Legacy e/w at 12/1

Split the other half of the stake into two smaller punts on

La Trinidad 40/1 & Epictetus 50/1 both e/w

Most bookies are going 6 places, 7 with Sky Bet/Paddy Power.

 

5.35 THE KENSINGTON PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Fillies' Handicap)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

A new handicap introduced to the meeting for the first time in 2021 for four-year-old and upwards fillies and mares. We have just four years of data and I'm wary of using such a small sample size but if we include the first four home in the four runnings it gives us a bit more information to work with.

Looking at these 16 runners we can see that 4yo's won all 4 renewals and fill 14 of the 16 win and places
All 16 win and places went to horses that had run at least 4 times and all 16 had finished top 8 last time out
All 4 winners and 13 of the 16 win and places had raced in the previous 45 days with just 1 placer from 11 runners who had been rested more than 50 days
All 13 of the runners that last raced on the AW have been beaten (3 placed)
The 3 British trained runners had their last run in a class 3 or 4 race and were stepping up or dropping down in distance (from 7f & 1m2f) while the Irish trained winner last ran in a 7f Listed race
All 37 horses that had their last start over a mile have been beaten although 7 have been placed

Using these trends would lead us to a shortlist of fpur runners including a couple of outsiders who last ran 4th and 5th in a Listed race over 10f at Haydock. Francophone is tried in first time cheekpieces and Charlie Johnston's 4yo filly was an easy winner of a handicap the last time she ran over a mile. She hasn't been getting home over the longer trip in her two starts this year and is an interesting contender back over a mile at around 40/1.

The other runner from that Haydock race, Ambiente Amigo, won a Listed race at Nottingham earlier in the season (well beaten 5th won a handicap next time out) and was 13 lengths adrift of See The Fire in the Group 2 Middleton at York but was within a length and a quarter of the highly rated second (113) and third (107) that day. She had led at the two-furlong pole before she, and the rest of the field, were readily brushed aside by the runaway winner and she could appreciate the drop back to a mile. Her trainer puts up a 7lb claimer who has incredibly won on three of her last four rides (including for this trainer) and she's another who could outrun her odds.

Roger Charlton's Arolla split a couple of 107 and 106 rated fillies in a Listed 7f contest at Musselburgh 11 days ago on her seasonal reappearance; she raced prominently there and kept on well through the final furlong. She'd won her maiden over a mile and was a very easy winner of a novice event on her next start so she's another who should appreciate returning to a mile, although a 4lb rise for that Listed 2nd last time means she races off 100 for this which looks a little high to me for her handicap debut.

The fourth filly on the shortlist is Andrew Balding's Miss Information who was a beaten favourite at the Epsom Derby meeting under a 5lb penalty for winning at Newmarket on her start before. She has raced mainly over 7f and was a well beaten favourite on her only try at a mile to date and, while the ground will be no problem, she has struggled when racing off a rating in the low 90's. Her 3rd in a big field big pot 7f handicap at York last August was very decent form that would give her every chance, but with doubts about her getting the trip and her current rating I'm going to pass.

From the four fillies that made the Trends cut I'm going to take a chance on the James Owen 4yo AMBIENTE AMIGO, under her in-form jockey. This filly will go on the ground and, you could also argue, is quite well treated on some of her form earlier in the season. The drop back from 10f is the big imponderable but she's been bang there at the mile before fading out of the running on her last two starts over further. At odds of around 33/1 I'm willing to take the chance she won't be inconvienced by the trip too much.

SELECTION: AMBIENTE AMIGO 1/2pt EW 33/1 (5 places)

 

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6.10 THE WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)

Presented by Victor Value

The Windsor Castle Stakes concludes Wednesday’s card at Royal Ascot, and I was able to find the winner last year so let's hope for a repeat.

Trends to Note

The ten-year stats (based on 239 qualifying runners) reveal a few interesting patterns:

The market holds up well. Big shocks are rare. Horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger are 0/142, with just 6 places.

Draw bias exists — unlike Tuesday’s Coventry Stakes, there’s a clear edge for those drawn in the first or final quarters of the stalls. Runners drawn in the middle two quarters are 1/125, with 11 places.

Only 4 of the last 10 winners had won on their previous start. Interestingly, last-time-out winners have underperformed by 44% compared market expectations.

Another solid angle: since 2015, all winners had started 9/1 or shorter on their most recent run. Those who went off 10/1+ last time out are 0/46, with 5 placing.

Contenders:

Twenty-four runners go to post but, despite the field size, just five caught my eye.

Rogue Legend made it 2 from 3 when making all at Tipperary 22 days ago. He tops the Racing Post Ratings coming into this, and his form would have been good enough to win the last five renewals of this race. This is his first run on ground quicker than good, but if he handles it, he’s a worthy favourite and the most likely winner.

Old Is Gold built on debut promise (behind Military Code) here by landing the bet365 Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley 25 days ago. He travelled well and ran on well and I was taken with his performance. Now running in Wathnan Racing colours and trained by Andrew Balding, who won this race in 2020. Big player.

Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2015 and runs two, Kansas and First Approach. Ryan Moore rides Kansas, which looks the yard’s number one. He’s hit the frame on all three starts without winning, but he’s shown plenty of speed. If Moore can settle him in this big field, he’s in the mix.

First Approach beat Kansas at Naas in May, though had fitness on his side. Well beaten in the Group 3 Marble Hill last time (possibly didn’t stay 6f), and Moore siding with Kansas says plenty for me.

Havana Hurricane looked useful when winning on debut at Goodwood and improved again when runner-up in the Woodcote Stakes (6f) at Epsom. He made a bold move 2f out, but his effort flattened out inside the final furlong. The drop to 5f looks a good move. He may come up a little short class-wise but should run well.

Utmost Respect was a 220,000 gns Craven breeze-up purchase I April, and I was impressed with him physically when I saw him prior to his debut at York’s Dante Meeting. He was a clear eye-catcher that day having repeatedly not got any sort of run between the final two furlongs. Once in the clear he hit the line strongly to finish ½ length second to Ballistic Missile. Open to plenty of improvement, and I am hoping it’s significant that Richard Fahey throws him straight into deep end for his second start.

Windsor Castle Verdict:

Rogue Legend’s form is already good enough to win the race, and he might be capable of an even bigger performance. For me he’s a worthy favourite and if you fancy him, I wouldn’t put you off. Old Is Gold impressed with his attitude when winning at Beverley last time and is a big contender. Despite being a three-race maiden, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Kansas just yet and given his yard’s record in the race, he’s got to be respected. I think Utmost Respect is set for a very big run for a trainer who has won 2-year-old races at Royal Ascot in the past.

Selection: I might have saver on Rogue Legend if he drifts out to 6/1 but for now, I’m with Utmost Respect each way at the 20/1 available with Bet365.

Utmost Respect: 1pt each way – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places)

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