After the thrills and many spills of the Cheltenham Festival attention now turns to the start of the turf flat season, writes Dave Renham. Saturday 29th March is the starting date this year and the crowds will descend on Doncaster for a card that includes the first big handicap of the season, the Lincoln. In this article I am going to look at some early season trainer form and trends. Data are taken from 2019 to 2025, although in 2020 there was no flat racing in the early part of the season due to Covid.
Selected Trainers: First Ten Runs
We see in the racing press plenty of stats connected with a trainer’s recent form, be it the last seven, 14 or 30 days, or their last ‘x’ number of runs. For some punters this information is really important and forms an integral part of their selection process. With that in mind, one question I am keen to address in this article is connected with recent trainer form. I want to try and establish whether the first few runs of the season from a particular stable is indicative of how their runners perform up to the end of April. Also, I will be looking at whether a similar level of performance each year is achieved by trainers up to the end of the first full month of the season. I just would like to clarify that the data shared in this piece has been collated starting from the day of the first turf flat meeting through to the 30th April in each season.
In order to make this piece manageable I have decided to focus on a selected group of trainers who tend to have a good number of entries in the early weeks of the season. This includes some of the big guns, namely Charlie Appleby, William Haggas and John/Thady Gosden.
My starting point was to work out the PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) figures for each trainer over their first ten runs of each season. I felt that using the PRBs would be the most accurate way of determining how well a stable was performing over those ten runs. Clearly, I could have used win strike rate but over such a small sample size we could potentially get a blurred picture of how well the horses are actually running. Here are my findings.
N.B. I have combined the figures for the Johnston stable although of course Charlie Johnston is now in sole charge:
Early Season Trainer Form: Selected trainers' PRB figures
Before doing a comparison with their records up to the end of April for each year, the table does highlight that we cannot guarantee exactly how well each stable will get out of the blocks each season. Taking Richard Hannon as one example, in 2023 his first ten runners of the turf season hit a PRB of only 0.46, but last year in 2024 it was up at a huge 0.83. Likewise, the Johnston stable has seen wide variances with three PRBs below 0.35 and two hitting 0.65 and above. Now of course ten runs is a small sample but by using PRBs it does give us a better idea of the very early form of a specific stable compared with other metrics. I believe the numbers shared in this table also help to highlight that each year is different and even if stables traditionally start the season quickly, there will be years that for whatever reason things will progress more slowly. And of course, vice versa.
Selected Trainers: To End of April
Let's now take a look at the annual PRBs for each trainer covering the start of the turf flat up to the end of April. Essentially, for most years this equates to roughly the first five weeks of the season.
Early season trainer form: up to end April annually
As might be expected, fluctuations year by year in the PRBs are now less pronounced due to the much bigger datasets, although two of Charlie Appleby’s figures differ quite markedly - from 0.81 in 2022 down to 0.63 in 2024. Likewise, the Gosden stable saw a big difference between their 2019 figure of 0.71 and their 2023 one of 0.51.
Now that we have these two sets of figures we can try to address the earlier question of whether the first few runs of the season from a particular yard are indicative of how their runners will perform up to the end of April. In order to do this, I have picked out some of the trainers to analyse in more detail.
Specific Trainers: Early Season Form
Charlie Appleby
If we look at Charlie Appleby’s performance with his first ten runners in 2019, 2022 and 2024 we can see he has quite well aligned PRB figures (0.62, 0.64 and 0.66). In 2019 and 2024 he maintained a similar level of performance up to the end of April hitting 0.66 and 0.63. However, in 2022, his PRB figure for the longer timeframe soared to 0.81. That year he had 23 winners from 55 runners up to April 30th equating to a strike rate of just under 42%. From those similar starting PRBs in 2019 and 2024 he managed a longer-term strike rate of 29.2% and 29% respectively. It is difficult to say why those early five or so weeks of 2022 panned out so well for the stable compared with 2019 and 2024 when they started off in the same vein. It perhaps underlines how challenging it can be to predict future trainer form based on a smallish sample of runs.
Mick Appleby
Next for the microscope is Mick Appleby. The graph below shows the comparison:
Mick Appleby: early season form, 2019-2024
The graph shows that Appleby has been consistent in terms of overall performance in the weeks up to April 30th (the orange line) - four of the five years saw PRB figures within a very small band ranging from 0.44 to 0.46. In 2022 he did have a better overall start to the season hitting 0.53 over those first few weeks, and that year he had started fast with a 0.63 figure for his first ten runners. The 2023 season saw an even better start with a 0.66 10-run figure, but that form tailed off quickly ending up at 0.46 for the longer time frame. Looking at this data tells me that the first ten runs of the year for Mick Appleby would not necessarily have given us a good guide to how the next few weeks would have panned out for his runners.
Going back to his PRB figures for all runs up to 30th April, despite having similar ones, the correlation with the win strike rates is not completely ‘positive’ as the graph below shows:
Mick Appleby: early season win strike rate comparison
Yes, the best year was 2022, (16.1%), which correlates with the highest PRB figure of 0.53, but there is a big variance between 2019’s strike rate of 14.3% compared with 2023’s 3.2% figure. This is despite having very similar PRB figures in those two years (0.44 and 0.46 respectively).
As with all metrics, any single one does not necessarily give us the best picture. Clearly in 2019 and 2023 the Appleby runners were generally running at the same level overall – the PRB figures show that. However, in terms of winning races 2019 saw many more winners than 2023.
This type of number crunching is an excellent reminder of why racing can be difficult to profit from. Let’s imagine for example we back 20 horses to win in one month, if all of them run really well but all finish second, we still would have lost all 20 bets.
Andrew Balding
Next is Andrew Balding. Again, I have graphed the comparison between the PRB of the first ten runners with that of all runners to the end of April each year.
Andrew Balding early season form: comparison of first 10 runs with all to end April
2021, 2022 and 2023 mirrored each other with both the 10-run PRBs and the all runs to end of April PRBs very close together. In 2019 and 2024 we saw a similar pattern, with the stable flying out of the blocks in those first 10 runs and then slipping back to more normalised figures based on a larger sample.
When looking at those early weeks of the season up to the end of April, Balding does tend to perform at a similar level year on year. If we look at his win strike rate from the start of the season up to the end of April, we can see that in four of the five years they were between 17 and 19%:
There is positive correlation between the PRB figures and the win strike rate in those four years. We saw earlier with Mick Appleby that we don’t always get that positive correlation, and for Balding the 2022 figures paint a similar story. That year saw a lower strike rate despite a similar PRB figure to other years. This highlights once again why it is a good idea, where possible, to look at more than one metric when analysing a set of results in order to get a broader and better overview.
Tim Easterby
Tim Easterby has a lot of runners but his overall strike rate year on year is quite low, both early in the season and taking the season as a whole. Hence his first 10-run PRB figures are the lowest of the trainers mentioned taking the five years as a whole. 2022 saw a poorer start than usual but, by the end of April, he had pulled back to very similar five-week figures as achieved in other years.
Looking at his PRBs for those early weeks up to the end of April, we can see that there is only 0.04 between the highest and lowest ones. Essentially, at the beginning of the season, Easterby has followed a similar pattern every year with similar outcomes. Not surprisingly his win strike rate up to the end of April each year has been low as the table shows:
Tim Easterby early season win strike rate
Personally, I rarely back Tim Easterby horses even if they appear to have ticks in several boxes. For me, finding good value in his team is tricky. On the plus side, his patterns of performance rarely surprise us.
William Haggas
William Haggas has had very consistent longer-term PRB figures (up to the end of April) ranging from 0.60 to 0.67 over the five different years. His PRBs for the first ten runs are more varied as we would expect given the smaller sample size. However, it seems that, year on year, runners from the Haggas stable perform in a similar fashion. Again though, the win percentages up to the 30th of April have varied much more as the table shows:
William Haggas early season metrics
As we can see, the two highest PRB figures of 0.67 in 2019 and 0.64 in 2023 did not produce the two highest win rates. In fact, they produced the lowest win rates by some margin. 2019 was definitely unlucky for Haggas in those first few weeks as they had 12 second places from their 42 runners that year. Against that, Haggas had only six winners hence the 14.3% strike rate. We talk about luck in racing, and regardless of how good a punter one is, luck and variance are ever-present, sometimes massively.
I would not worry too much about what sort of numbers Haggas posts after his first ten runners this season. We can be fairly confident that his team over the first month or so will run to a similar level to previous years. Whether they win at around 27% or 14% I cannot say, but for readers that back any of his, let’s hope it is nearer 27!
Richard Hannon
For Richard Hannon I want to compare the two sets of PRB figures side by side as I did for Mick Appleby and Andrew Balding.
Richard Hannon early season PRB figures
The orange line represents the longer-term figures up to the end of April and, aside from the 0.47 figure for 2022, the rest lie between 0.51 and 0.59 showing that Hannon's runners perform at roughly the same type of level at this stage of the season year on year.
What I find interesting is the difference between the first 10-run figures for 2023 and 2024, which was huge. 2024 was his best start at a massive 0.83 PRB, 2023 was his worst at just 0.46. However, by the end of the first month although 2024 ended up ‘better’ in PRB terms, the gap was quite small at 0.06 (0.57 v 0.51). Indeed, looking at the win percentages for these two years there was less than 2% in it. 2023 saw a 10%-win rate, 2024 stood at 11.8%.
This is another reminder that looking at a handful of races may not be as important or as useful as some punters/pundits may think; and I am not just talking about the first ten starts of the year. It is essentially the same thing when looking at any 7-day trainer form snapshot throughout the season when a trainer has had ten runners or so during that period. Is that really a reliable enough sample on which to judge how the next few weeks are going to go for the yard in question?
Charlie Johnston
The final yard I want to look in more detail at is that of Charlie Johnston (and its recent incarnations), formerly run solely by father Mark, then by Mark and his son Charlie, and since 2023 by Charlie on his own. Here are the two sets of PRBs:
Charlie Johnston / Johnston yard early season form
I mentioned earlier the huge variances in their opening 10-run figures (the blue line), but despite that the longer term PRBs are all in the same ballpark lying between 0.50 and 0.57. I don’t think the performance of the first ten runners will be that relevant again this year when it comes to predicting what will happen in the subsequent weeks to the end of April. However, we can be fairly sure how they will perform over the longer five-week time frame.
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Selected Trainers: Win Strike Rates to end April Annually
To finish off let me share the win strike rates for all trainers for each of the five years based on their runners from the start of the turf season to the end of April:
Selected trainers: early season win strike rates 2019-2024
These percentages can vary markedly year on year, as I meantioned earlier when looking at the performance of the Haggas yard. Luck plays its part for all trainers every year, be it good luck or bad. A few bobs of the head in a finish can make a big difference to the win rate; hopefully Geegeez members will be on the right end of tight finishes more often than not!
That is almost it for this week but for before closing I will put my head on the block and predict the win strike rates and PRBs for all of the stables mentioned in this article from the start of the Doncaster Lincoln meeting this year to the end of April. Here goes:
Projected early season win percent and PRB figures for selected trainers
Hopefully, most of these projections will be close to their mark.
Until next time,
- DR
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