As I am penning this piece, the excitement for the upcoming Cheltenham Festival has gone up a further notch with the big days less than a week away, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will analyse some past Cheltenham race trends. Here on geegeez.co.uk we get specific race trends shared all year round with all the big races covered by Andy Newton. The Cheltenham Festival trends are available already for each day and can be accessed here.
Introduction
From 2007 to 2013 I wrote a weekly column on big race trends in the Racing & Football Outlook and over time got an excellent feel for which races suited past trends. Past race trends can be very good indicators of how a future race is likely pan out, and this is usually the case with the Cheltenham Festival. Many people use trends to help narrow down the field making the eventual selection process less daunting. If we can reasonably confidently eliminate say 50% of the field, then it drastically increases our chances of success. Obviously, there will be times when the race trends are ‘bucked’ where the winner does not fit the typical winner’s profile, but fortunately for many Cheltenham races this happens quite rarely.
For the main part of this piece, I will examine the last 20 renewals of the Gold Cup. I am going to first examine the ten Gold Cups held between 2005 and 2014 and then compare those findings with the Gold Cups from 2015 to 2024. After this I will be in a position to hopefully pick out the very strongest trends. I will also highlight some of the strongest trends from three other races at the meeting at the backend of the article.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
So let's look at the blue riband race, the Gold Cup. From 2005 to 2014 these were the most powerful trends:
2005-2014 Gold Cup Trends
Market Factors: 2005-14
5 winning favourites from 10.
9 out of 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.
Horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter produced 9 winners from 36 runners (25%); horses priced 17/2 or bigger produced one winner from 107 (0.9%).
Last Race Factors: 2005-14
7 of the 10 winners won last time out (LTO). Those seven winners came from 44 qualifiers (15.9%); horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO provided three winners from 99 (3%).
All of the 10 winners came from one of three tracks – Leopardstown, Newbury or Kempton. This equates to 10 wins from 65 (15.4%). Other courses combined were 0/78 (0%).
All of the 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO. Those 10 wins came from 103 runners (9.7%). Those priced 17/2 or bigger were 0 wins from 40 (0%).
Racing in a Grade 1 race LTO produced seven winners from 47 (14.9%). Those racing in Grade 2 or lower were three wins from 96 (3.1%).
Other Factors: 2005-14
Horses that had won previously at the Cheltenham Festival produced five winners from 37 (13.5%). Those with no previous Festival win were 5/106 (SR 4.7%).
Horses with an Official Rating of 166 or more produced seven winners from 37 (18.9%); those rated 165 or less were 3/96 (3.1%).
In terms of age, 10yos or older were 0 from 40 (0%). Nine of the winners came from horses aged 7, 8 or 9.
Horses that had previously won at least once that season produced eight wins from 83 qualifiers (9.6%). Horses that had not scored that season won 2/60 (3.3%).
Conclusion: 2005-14
During this ten-year time frame, the Gold Cup was dominated by the front end of the betting market. 2014 was the outlier with a 20/1 winner in Lord Windermere and placed runners at 16/1 and 14/1. A win LTO was a plus as was an OR of 166+. All the winners came from either Kempton, Newbury or Leopardstown and all the winners were priced 8/1 or shorter on their previous start.
It was also preferable to have raced in Grade 1 company LTO, to have previously won at the Festival and to have won that season. In terms of age, it was best to avoid horses aged 10 or older.
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Let's now compare the data from 2005 to 2014 with that for the most recent ten-year period, 2015-2024.
2015-2024 Gold Cup Trends
Market Factors: 2015-24
5 winning favourites from 10.
Seven out of 10 winners came from the top three in the betting (nine came from the top four).
Horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter produced eight winners from 40 runners (20%); horses priced 17/2 or bigger produced two winners from 88 (2.3%).
Last Race Factors: 2015-24
Eight of the 10 winners won LTO. Those eight winners came from 59 qualifiers (13.6%); horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO provided two winners from 69 (2.9%).
Five of the 10 winners raced at Leopardstown LTO from 42 qualifiers (11.9%); Newbury LTO produced two winners from 10 (20%). Kempton LTO runners produced 0 winners from 16 (0%). All other courses combined were three wins from 60 (5%).
All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/3 or shorter LTO. Those 10 wins came from 63 runners (15.9%). Those priced 17/2 or bigger were 0 wins from 65 (0%).
Racing in a Grade 1 race LTO produced five winners from 65 (7.7%). Those racing in Grade 2 or lower had five wins from 63 (7.9%).
Othere Factors: 2015-24
Horses that had won previously at the Cheltenham Festival produced five winners from 42 (11.9%). Those with no previous Festival win have scored five times from 86 (SR 5.8%).
Horses with an Official Rating of 166 or more produced eight winners from 65 (12.3%); those rated 165 or less were two from 63 (3.2%).
In terms of age, 10yos or older were 0 from 22 (0%). Nine of the winners came from horses aged 7 or 8.
Horses that had previously won at least once that season produced all ten wins from 90 qualifiers (11.1%). Horses that had not previously won that season won 0 from 38 (0%).
Conclusion: 2015-2024
During this ten-year time frame, this race was once again dominated by the front end of the betting market. Five wins for favourites and nine of the ten winners were priced 8/1 or shorter at SP. A win LTO was a plus as was an OR of 166+, while a run at Leopardstown or Newbury LTO could be seen as a positive.
Previous Festival winners comfortably outperformed non Festival winners, while a win that season was paramount with all ten winners having that stat. An even stronger positive stat was horses priced 100/30 or less LTO as they produced all the winners from roughly 50% of the runners. Less horses aged 10yo+ took part during this time frame but once again they drew a blank.
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The Gold Cup Comparison
Overall, the vast majority of the key trends from 2005 to 2014 were seen again between 2015 and 2024. The race has been strongly dominated by the more fancied runners. That includes ten winning favourites during the past 20 years, and backing all favourites would have yielded a profit to SP of £14.12 (ROI +70.6%).
Below is a graph mapping the market rank of all 20 winners:
This is a neat way of illustrating the front end of market dominance. 18 of the 20 winners have come from the top four in the betting so it looks best to concentrate there.
15 of the last 20 winners won LTO – this is a strong positive that has ‘held’ during both ten-year periods. Essentially, a LTO winner has been five times more likely to win the Gold Cup than a horse that failed to win LTO. The graph below shows the A/E indices for different LTO positions:
These indices are another indication as to why a last day win before the Gold Cup has been a strong positive.
Sticking with last time out factors, all 20 winners were 8/1 or shorter on their most recent start with the last ten being 100/30 or shorter. Horses priced LTO 17/2 or bigger are 0 from 55. Now it is important to note that the vast majority of these 55 losers were decent prices come the big day, but only three of the 55 placed so if we are looking for a big priced placer, which can happen, the trends suggest that we should steer clear of this subset.
A previous Festival win has been a positive in both time frames. Overall, a previous Festival winner has been 2.4 times more likely to prevail in the Gold Cup when compared with runners who had not previously won at the Festival.
Based on the success of the top end of the betting markets it should come as no surprise that higher rated horses have been the most successful. An OR of 166 or more has produced 15 of the winners – this equates to 75% of the winners coming from around 38% of the total runners.
The age dynamic in terms of older horses (those aged 10 or older) has remained constant with these runners failing to register a win since Cool Dawn in 1998. In terms of horses aged nine or younger the last ten years has seen a slight switch with 7 and 8yos winning nine of the renewals.
A previous win that season was a positive in both time frames and that should be something to look out for again this year.
There are, however, a couple of 2005-2014 trends that did not repeat between 2015 and 2024. The first is those horses that raced in a Grade 1 event LTO. In the first ten years it seemed a strong positive if a horse ran in the highest class possible LTO. During that spell, they were roughly five times more likely to win than horses that raced in a Grade 2 or lower LTO. Fast forward to the latest ten-year period and there has been parity between both groups with no edge to horses that raced in a Grade 1 contest LTO.
The second pattern that did not repeat was the LTO Kempton one. This was a positive from 2005-2014, but actually since 2012 no LTO Kempton runner has gone on to win the Gold Cup. This is partly due to the fact that most runners in the past have come from the Boxing Day meeting at Kempton straight to the Festival. Nowadays more horses seem to fit in another run between these two big meetings.
One area I have yet to look at in terms of this race is trainers, and specifically Irish trainers versus British trainers. I will fix that now!
From 2005 to 2014, just 15.5% of the runners in the Gold Cup were trained in Ireland. In contrast, from 2015 to 2024 this has increased to 48.4%. The Irish trainers have dominantly outperformed British trainers over both time frames in terms of overall win rate. The graph below illustrates this:
Irish trainers have maintained their strike rate and with far more runners in the 2015–2024-time frame, it means they have provided the winner eight times in the last ten years (and all of the last six). British trainers have really struggled in recent years.
Splitting the data into two ten-year time frames for this race has shown that this is a race where many of the strong past trends remain the same. Generally, Grade 1 races for experienced horses are good races from a past trends perspective. However, as we have seen there has been a change in a couple of the trends highlighted between the two decades. As punters we need to be aware that this can happen and obviously react accordingly. Patterns change over time but the Gold Cup retains some very solid looking patterns which for this year’s renewal should help to narrow down the field to a small group of the most likely winners.
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I now want to pick out a few other races and highlight the very strongest past trends based on the last 20 years.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
This is the first race of the meeting, and the strongest trend is around LTO placing. Simply, we want to be looking for horses that won last time. They have provided 16 of the 20 winners from 145 runners for a break-even situation to SP (well a 48p profit to be precise). Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO have won 4 races from 173 runners for a loss of £108.50 (ROI -62.7%).
Not only that, we have had consistency in both 10-year groups with eight LTO winners from 2005-2014 and eight from 2015-2024. The win & placed (Each Way) percentages also strongly favour the LTO winners’ group. They have been over three times more likely to finish in the first three than horses that failed to win LTO.
Sticking with the win & placed theme, the graph below shows the consistency of performance of LTO winners when tackling the Supreme. I have grouped the LTO winners in five-year batches or groups to show their win & placed percentages in each period.
The percentages have not fluctuated much with most five-year groups around the 30% mark. Clearly, for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, we should be focusing our attention on LTO winners. Of course, a non-LTO winner may be successful this year as was the case last year, when Slade Steel won the race. However, the LTO 1st stats/trends are strongly in our favour.
Champion Hurdle
The Champion hurdle is the highlight of the first day and one recent trend that stands out is concerned with unbeaten horses that season. All of the last ten winners fitted that profile, and there were only 18 horses that qualified under that rule going back to 2015. This equates to a 55.6%-win strike rate. In the previous ten years there were also 18 qualifiers, but only three won. Having said that, from 2005 to 2014 horses unbeaten in that season were still three times more likely to win compared to horses that had lost at least once in the season.
As with the Supreme, last day winners are far more likely to win than those that failed to win LTO, amassing 17 successes from 101 runners (16.8%), and an A/E index 1.01 for LTO winners, compared to 3 wins from 134 (2.2%), A/E 0.45 for non-winners. In terms of the ten-year splits, 2005-2014 saw seven wins for LTO winners, 2015-2004 saw all ten wins.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
This staying novice event is run on Gold Cup day and has one trend that has shifted dramatically in the last ten years. Let us look at the last 20 winners and their SPs:
The table neatly shows the difference between the ten years from 2005 to 2014 and those from 2015 to 2024 when it comes to the winning SPs. In the first ten-year period (lower half of the table) eight of the ten winners were priced in single figures with four favourites prevailing. In the most recent ten-year period nine of the ten winners were double figure prices and no favourite won.
The profit and loss figures for single figure priced runners during the two-time frames could not be more contrasting:
This type of switch-up reminds us once more that patterns and trends can change and that we cannot solely put our faith in all trends from past races. As punters we need to be aware that many trends will remain constant while a handful will not. Being able to adapt is part of what helps to make a punter successful over time.
Also, we are dealing with a smallish number of past races which again can seem to make trends fluctuate from time to time, whereas sometimes it was simply that the pattern was coincidence in the first place: we need to use skill and judgement to decide what is a trend and what is an accident of fate. Looking for reasons to justify a trend is a very good starting point in that regard.
- DR
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