My 2024 Cheltenham Festival Betting P&L
As has become somewhat customary, I've taken a few moments to publicly critique the wagering positions from which I stood to gain or lose during that marvellous week of racing action, the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.
It won't be interesting to everyone, perhaps only to very few, and I publish not to boast/wallow (*delete annually as applicable) but to share my own lessons learned from this most immersive of punting processes. As ever, stakes are irrelevant - many bet more than me, many bet less, whatever; the key is how the journey went and, to a much lesser degree, what the destination looked like.
If that makes little sense, now is a good time to plug into the below. [Usual reminder that I speak kinda slowly, so feel free to use the little 'cog' icon bottom right to increase the playback speed to something more acceptable for your lugs].
Below the video are a few screen grabs of various bets just to show when they were placed (many at the time of publication of the posts in which they were nominated as suggestions). And if you want to review the previews, as it were, I've linked to those right here:
Day 1 preview Day 2 preview Day 3 preview Day 4 preview
Selected bets
For those of you of a notably vicarious disposition, here are some slips...
The Good
A lot of the good stuff for me - in fact, pretty much all of the good stuff - happened in the novice hurdles this year. Slade Steel (Supreme), Ballyburn (Gallagher), Majborough (Triumph) and Stellar Story (Albert Bartlett) basically were the profit side of the ledger.
Stellar Story was, well, just that, especially as Gavin also tipped him on the preview. He returned a Betfair SP of 46, so I didn't get the value here - maybe it should go in the 'bad' section...
Plus Captain Guinness, who really only expunged the El Floppiolo entry (see The Ugly below)...
A saver on Jade de Grugy to place (see The Bad below)...
And Limerick Lace, an alliterative late lump of lustre on the ledger...
The Bad
Not bad in value terms, more like bad beats - though of course those wily bookie chaps usually know what they're about. I was lucky that Jade was the final leg (excluding WPM and Prestbury Cup which were nigh on certs) which made it hedgeable. Got a profit overall by laying Jade for a place - see above.
Nowhere to go with this, and I didn't even do the smart thing and back Absurde (who finished fourth behind these three last time out, and won the County Hurdle at 12/1, 15.5 BSP) for a couple of quid.
The Ugly
And this was an ugly one. Actually, only in terms of its predictable outcome was it disfigured; the double (2/5 and 2/9) paid 8/11 come the hour, and I'd secured 11/10 so it was a value play. As can be seen, I cashed a slice out when I first got a wobble about it; and as referenced in the video I hedged a little back, too, so it probably wasn't as ugly as I was thinking.
Doing debriefs can be very cathartic! [And absolutely objectifies what can be misguided subjective perspectives on the ledger - definitely worth your time to fill out the spreadie in my view]
Summary
Overall, it was a brilliant week from a sporting perspective though I (and I'm sure most readers) really felt for Nicky Henderson. That said, it's a strong case for making hay while the sun shines: the singular focus on the Festival is unhealthy and, when the horses are, erm, unhealthy during that week in March, there's no Plan B. Hoping at least some of those good horses will show up at Aintree and/or Punchestown.
Punting wise, for yours true it was very good - and a rarity to get quids on 'Give Back Friday'. This year, it was the bookies giving back to me. Nice. Normal service is expected to resume on Friday 14th March 2025.
Until then...
Matt
p.s. how was Cheltenham for you? Best sporting moment? Best bet / worst bad beat? Leave a comment and let us know.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, 6th September 2024
- Tix Picks, 5th September 2024
- What is Tix?
- Tix Picks: Prototype
- Autumn Update
Nice punting Matt. My only winner was Absurd, which just paid for my losses on the first and second days. But I always think win or lose, you get your money’s worth in entertainment.
Absolutely right, Wendy, and well done with Absurde. I was kicking myself a little for not taking a small interest in him. Thought he won like a good hurdler for the future – perhaps Champion Hurdle picture depending on how others progress. Thanks for sharing.
I did my normal 12 Lucky 15s for the festival 2 on each day and the rest were a mix and match done ante post. I had something in every race every day so I always had an interest. My daily bets were losing for £120 (My staking plan was £1 win and 50p e/w) stake I got back £64.78 so a loss of £55.22. Still not too bad a price for 4 days entertainment – I’ve spent more going to gigs I was disappointed with.
Happily my Ante Post bets came up trumps and the return on these was £352.26 mainly due to the following selections:
Tues 2:50 Monbeg Genius
Thu 4:10 Shakem Up’Arry
Fri 2:50 Stellar Story
Fri 3:30 Bravemansgame
This E/W L15 returned £299.64
I guess overall a Cheltenham to be happy with
Great work John, and definitely a fair price for the entertainment. Well done with the ante post positions. Amazing how many of us were on Stellar Story.
Matt
The four days were saved by a Stellar bet (on my own initiative, too!) at 50/1 before it was punted in the morning.
The drift post midday was extraordinary, I thought, but seven lengths behind after the last had me reconciling myself to yet another second.
I had fancied it so strongly I should have had a second bite, but three days of failure undermined my confidence in my judgement.
Let’s hope he can jump a fence and is entered for the Gold Cup…
And the rains come next March.
The stuff of dreams.
Great to get out on the last day, isn’t it? And yes he’ll be interesting in the Brown Advisory next year I guess, or maybe the Irish National, a good race for novice chasers, next Easter
Well done Matt and thanks for all the excellent analysis. I was a bit ahead after 3 days thanks to the same novice hurdles, Chianti Classico, Shakem Up’arry and the bumper, but Friday was my best ever Festival day, 6 out of 7 wins + Corach e/w in Gold Cup. Total dreamland led by Stellar Story thanks to you and Gavin, well found! That Limerick race is one to look out for next time. It’s fine margins of course in this great game, and my usual lack of discipline could have made it an expensive week. Any thoughts you or colleagues have on betting discipline in a week when there is so much tipster advice plus own thoughts would be welcome idc, all the best and good luck for the flat season, Jim
Great work, Jimmy, thanks for sharing. On discipline, I think if you know you’re having an action bet, just stake it small and don’t worry about it. That’s my approach anyway. Discipline, relatively, with staking means not having to be disciplined with punting!
Matt
Didn’t really have time to look through the cards properly. So picked of your lists. Won our annual Cheltenham tipping comp thanks to your emails. £510 in the bank.
Fantastic stuff, Ian, congratulations.
Matt
Decent Cheltenham only because left el fabiolo out of multiples
5 winners and sir Gino nrmb
So 240 stake 3600 back
2/1 teahupoo was best price
Still gutted from 18k cost of Annie power fall 2016, but helped a little bit .
Lovely job Ronnie, well done
Matt
Hey there Matt. I took the tips advice you posted and put Stellar Story 33/1 and Sine Nomine 10/1 in my 50p EW Lucky 31. Came out with £284 which turned my fortunes around. Thanks Den
Great work, Den, well done. Catch up soon.
Matt
Hi Matt, thanks for the great analysis and insights. What a great four days of racing. Had a great start with Slade steel but didn’t have much luck after that. Starting day 4 was in the minus but delighted to say stayed consistent and followed all your advice Friday. Stellar story saved the week and then followed with winners in all the remaining, had sin nomine, limerick lace and finished big on better days ahead. It’s was an outstanding day so thanks very much to you and your team.
Wow, that sounds like one hell of a Friday – well played!
Matt
Thanks for the honesty Matt, it’s good to see that someone with your level of knowledge and interest in the sport having modest wagers (I will ignore the ugly 500 quid loss). Personally, my week started slowly as I kept hitting the post: Firefox 3rd at 11/2 (I had 10’s); Found A Fifty 2nd at 13/2; and then Twig 2nd at 28/1. Wednesday was a day for sitting on the fence, but I came alive on Thursday with Grey Dawning 1st at 5/2; then Kyntara at 16’s and Emitom at 28’s both placed in the Pertemps; Protektorat destroying a strong field at 9/1 in the Ryanair, and very nearly having the cherry on the cake when the gallant Flooring Porter ran 2nd at 14’s. A great week.
Hi Ian,
Yes, modest enough stakes since getting a family! Also, as I said, it’s not the thing I ‘need’ to do for money, it’s the thing I like to do that can get me a bit of money. Think it’s a really important distinction.
Anyway, that’s by the by. Well done yourself on a cracking week. Some crossbar rattling but nice prices all and some solid place returns – good stuff.
Matt
Five winners (and three seconds) from 16 bets. Happy with that and even with odds from evens to 3-1 on the winners still managed to show a fair profit on stakes. Not as good as 2023 but that included 12-1 and 6-1 winners which boosted the returns. Overall, I think the meeting was punter friendly this year.
Excellent, Mike. Yes, agree it was punter friendly, with the handicaps generally going to the top of the market.
Matt
Hi Matt
Thanks for sharing your P/L and many thanks to you and your team for the excellent daily previews. My festival started well with Slade Steel taken from your preview. I also love a ‘top finish’ acca now and again. Tuesday’s picks were Jimmy Du Seuil, Giovinco, Langer Dan and Captain Guinness and that landed at 19/1. The rest of the week was hit and miss but I won on Grey Dawning, Ballyburn and State Man and ended the week in profit. All in all a great festival week.
Andy
Nicely done, Andy, though I’ve no clue how you found Jimmy Du Seuil – unless it was the silks! Catch up soon for Razzam.
Best,
Matt
After the handicappers helped out with Langer Dan I bet Charlie Byrne is in front of the mirror practising saying “the horse just comes good at this time of year”.
Hi Matt,
Really interesting listening to your talk through of your Cheltenham bets once again.
That is the type of offering that I really enjoy from Geegeez.
Your Big Meeting Previews, Dave Renhams Excellent Research Articles, the Monday Musings, Dave Massey’s amusing articles on his Racecourse Work, etc etc are the main reason I subscribe.
I also had a good Cheltenham – but (as ever!) could have been so much better!
My personal highlight was betting 33/1 Golden Ace Ante Post plus later “Press Ups” – also found Chianti Classico, Unexpected Party, Grey Dawning, Protektorat, but don’t keep on about Stellar Story (!) I was on The Jukebox Man (25/1 EW)!
Also let down by focussing on Love Envoi (EW) and L’Homme Presse (EW) and the Wednesday Mullins “Hotpot Treble”.
The “Drift in Price” put me off Majborough and I then majored on Kargese!!
I thought about Absurde then majored on L’Eau du Sud!
The Bookies Offers and Free Bets gave me a great deal of “Free Fun”, especially Bet 365 Offering “Evens” Ballyburn for up to £10 and “Evens” State Man for the same. “Every Little Helps” as they say at Tesco’s!
Great fun – and a good week!
Excellent stuff, John, and very glad you liked the video.
On those seconds, as you know, they’re a necessary part of finding winners – I’ve yet to find a way to have winners or unplaced! It’s the crossbar rattling that tells me I’m doing it right even when I’m not getting paid. Sounds like you were doing a hell of a lot right last week!
Matt
For me Cheltenham returned an OK profit of 30 points but that was clouded by the pain of 2nds with Kyntara and Jukebox Man which would have made it a much better week.
Delighted to see David Bass have success, heartbroken at the loss of Highland Hunter and generally underwhelmed by most of the races bar a couple of great rides.
Next year I need to be more prepared, Stellar Story in particular stung as they are sat in my tracker laughing at me!
Profit of 30 points is a lot better than OK, I’d say, Alistair! And yes, the loss of Highland Hunter was a very tough one 🙁
Matt
plusses
Non handicaps. decent results.
Galopin winning 2nd gold cup, Ballyburn and Gaelic Warrior
our group pot started with 200 finishing with 540
went to Cheltenham on Tuesday. Rotunda pub kept prices same. 5.90 for a guinness
my mate having a 2nd grandchild at 3pm Gold Cup day
negatives
only having a £2 free bet on Stellar Story. why not 5 each way?
backed far too many horses in handicaps for losses
pubs in cheltenham raising prices for festival week. 7.50 a guinness
brazen use of drugs at racecourse cubicles (or they all needed a dump)
You couldnt really tell in Cheltenham town centre a festival was on
Pretty good summary, Paul. A lot of profiteering Cheltenham week, though perhaps not surprising.
Matt
on an aside Matt I thought the geegeez content pre Festival and Festival week was excellent. be great if it could be reproduced for Aintree.
kudos to Chris too for answering my query about speed ratings missing on gold cup day. quickly resolved. he should get a job working on the phones for HMRC