Sat TV Trends: 8th May 2021
More LIVE ITV Racing this Saturday as the cameras head to Haydock to take in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, plus they are also at Ascot and Lingfield.
At Ascot, there are three LIVE ITV races that include the Victoria Cup, while it's Derby and Oaks Trials Day at Lingfield.
As always, here at GeeGeez we've got all the LIVE races covered with our key trends and stats.
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
3.10 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Swinton Hurdle Race) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4
17/17 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
17/17 – Had won over at least 2m miles (hurdles before)
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less
16/17 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/17 – Didn’t win last time out
14/17 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
11/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Carried 10-8 or less
9/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
6/17 – Returned a double-figure price
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Had run at the track before (hurdles)
4/17 – Trained by Evan Williams (4 of the last 7 runnings)
3/17 – Ran at Ayr last time out
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 14 winners returned 16/1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)
1.55 – Tote+ Exclusively At Tote.Co.UK British EBF Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 1m ITV4
14/14 – Failed to win last time out
14/14 – Had won 2-3 times on the flat before
12/14 – Had won over a mile before
12/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/14 – Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Aged 4 years-old
9/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/14 – Favourites that finished 4th or better
8/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
8/14 – Rated between 82-87
7/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1
2.30 - Tote+ Pays More At Tote.Co.Uk Buckhounds Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f ITV4
12/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Had won 3 or more times before
9/15 – Favourites placed
9/15 – Had raced at Ascot before
8/15 – Winning favourites (inc co or joint)
8/15 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
7/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
5/15 – Raced within the last 3 weeks
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
3/15 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The last 12 winners ALL came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2020 race was staged at Newmarket
3.40 – tote+ Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4
15/17 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/17 – Aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Had won no more than 3 times
13/17 – Had won over 7f before
12/17 – Carried 8-10 or less
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Had run at Ascot before (5 winners)
5/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint) – only 1 in the last 11 years
2/17 – Trained by David Elsworth (2 of last 5)
The last 7 winners came from a double-figure draw
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/1
Note: The 2005 running was staged at Lingfield
Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)
2.15 - Novibet Oaks Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4
15/17 – Had won no more than once before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had no more than 3 career runs
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/17 – Came from stall 5 or higher
10/17 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks (no winners, two seconds)
9/17 – Had only won over a mile or shorter in the past
9/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Having first run of the season
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Raced at either Newbury (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Winning distance exactly 6 lengths
4/17 – Winners from stall 5
4/17 – Trained by John Gosden
4/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
2.50 – Novibet Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4
18/18 – Had won no more than 3 times
15/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/18 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (1 winner, Anthony Van Dyck, 2019)
14/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished 4th or better last time out
13/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
8/18 – Drawn in stall 1 or 2
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
High Rise (1998) and Anthony Van Dyck (2019) were the last winners to go onto win the Epsom Derby
3.25 - Novibet Chartwell Fillies´ Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f1y ITV4
14/14 – Aged 5 or younger
12/14 – Drawn between stalls 3-8 (inc)
12/14 – Won between 1-4 times before
11/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 – Had won over 7f before
9/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Irish-bred
7/14 – Drawn in stall 3 (4) or 7 (3)
7/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Non UK-trained winners
5/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/14 – Returned 16/1 in the betting
3/14 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 11 winners returned double-figures in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1
4.00 – Download The Novibet App Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 7 1/2f ITV4
Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
3/3 – Unplaced last time out
3/3 – Rated between 85 – 90
3/3 – Carried 9-2 or more
3/3 – Won at least twice before
3/3 – Had won over at least 7f before
3/3 – Had run at the track before
3/3 – Aged between 4-6 (inc)
2/3 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/3 – Ran in the last 2 weeks
2/3 – Carried 9-7 in weight
2/3 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/3 – Winning favourite
Matt..hope you get this…are there statistics which show what the best distances are for winning favourites? I tend to think 7f non-handicaps as it should give a fav plenty of time to overcome a slow start or a bit of interference. Have you got stats for all the distances and performance of favs? Hope so..Kemal