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Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

2.05 Warwick : Ange Des Malberaux @ 7/1 BOG WON at 7/1 (Held up in rear, headway before 14th, 2nd 2 out, led before last, clear towards finish, won easily by 5 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Straight Right @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 7f on Tapeta worth £15752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is pretty lightly raced with just four runs in the last year, but he did win two of them and make the frame in another, including a Class 2 course and distance success here. He's 2 from 4 on standard A/W going, all at Class 2, 2/2 at 7f and 1/1 over C&D.

He's by Siyouni, whose offspring are 23 from 106 (21.7% SR) for 55.4pts (+52.2% ROI) on A/W tracks over the last two years and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 23.5pts (+58.8%) over 7f
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 22.1pts (+170.1%) at Class 2
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 25.8pts (+322.7%) here at Newcastle

And he's trained by Andrew Balding who is 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) for 9.4pts (+78.3% ROI) over the last 10 days including saddling up 4 winners from 7 runers over 6 to 8 furlongs, whilst more long-term, his sub-5/1 male A/W handicappers are 57 from 167 (34.1% SR) for 41.2pts (+24.7% ROI) since the start of 2014 and with today's race in mind, those 167 runners are...

  • 35/100 (35%) for 31.79pts (+31.79%) after no more than 30 days rest
  • 18/32 (56.3%) for 29.59pts (+92.5%) since the start of 2018
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 5.52pts (+26.3%) over 7f
  • and 12 from 19 (63.2%) for 19.45pts (+102.4%) from those racing after no more than 30 days rest since the start of 2018

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Straight Right @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by half a dozen firms at 5.10pm on Monday evening, whilst Bet365 were another half point better still. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I'm away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt's in the hotseat for Saturday's pick and I'll be doing Monday's pick when I get home, but it won't appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Monday Musings: Hong Kong? Phooey!

Why do people own horses? That’s a very good question in these days of high costs and, apart from at the top level, pretty ordinary prize money levels, writes Tony Stafford. In simple terms you have to love the game,  I assume, but some syndicates and racing clubs also manage to tap into social aspirations even for non- lovers.

At the higher level in that regard must be the Royal Ascot Racing Club which not only has the best facilities and catering standards available to its members, but the cachet of the Royal meeting itself to entice would-be adherents. They have also had a Derby winner, Motivator, run in their colours.

Not far behind, certainly for people of a certain vintage – and sadly perhaps racing still relies principally on that age-group – must be the Kingsclere Racing Club. This is run from Andrew Balding’s stable on the Hampshire-Berkshire borders and relies entirely on bloodstock bred by Kingsclere Stud.

Not the least of the appeal is that the Club is able to utilise the historic colours, black with a gold cross, worn by the wonderful Mill Reef, always referred to as among the top handful of thoroughbreds in the second half of the last century. Mill Reef was trained by Andrew’s father, Ian, for the colt’s American owner-breeder, Paul Mellon.

His 12 wins and two second places in 14 races included an impressive Epsom Derby success. His defeats were both at the very top level. As a juvenile he was edged out in a close finish by My Swallow, the champion European 1970 two-year-old, and then in the next year’s 2,000 Guineas when the equally brilliant Brigadier Gerard – who only ever lost once in 18 starts over three seasons’ racing – beat him and My Swallow in probably the greatest Guineas of all time.

Mill Reef would almost certainly have improved even on those figures bar a shattered leg sustained while being prepared for the 1972 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Happily, supreme care and rehabilitation meant he recovered well enough to fulfil a highly-meritorious stallion career at the National Stud in Newmarket.

Even after all these years the sight of those silks coming to the fore on the racecourse gives me a charge as it must the 25 shareholders (that’s the maximum Kingsclere Racing Club seeks according to their literature) when they appear on track.

For an interest in the stated 15 Flat horses – the odd one does run over jumps from time to time – each member pays £6,000 <hope that’s current> and in turn is entitled to one-fiftieth share of prize money, so the management keeps and underwrites at least one-half. In 2018, 14 individual Kingsclere Stud horses ran for a total of nine wins and around £180,000. I reckon that will boil down to around £110,000 of owners’ money after jockey, trainer, stable percentage and other Weatherbys deductions.

Your first 30 days for just £1

So it should still leave in excess of two  grand to each member from the six invested – a not-unreasonable return for the excitement of seeing 71 domestic and a few overseas runs during the year, especially with the social aspect and free admission to the top enclosure on track.

I’m not sure how many of the members – or even the trainer - fancied yesterday’s jaunt up to Newcastle for their four-year-old Seasearch, a son of Passing Glance who won twice last year and stepped up to two miles in 0-65 company. Sadly the jury will still be out on his stamina as he was a one-paced sixth of eight, but the travelling costs for the horse – if not the owners – will have been partially defrayed by prizemoney of £400 for all the also-rans.

The bulk of the 2018 earnings for Kingsclere Racing Club was shared between two horses. Brorocco, who despite failing to win in seven starts, collected most with almost £60,000 from place prizes. The three-year-old Urban Aspect, a son of Cityscape out of Casual Glance, a Kingsclere stalwart, won £53,000 from four runs. After a promising debut third, he won three times, culminating in victory from a big field in a mile handicap at the York Ebor meeting in August.

Four weeks after York, Urban Aspect was gelded and the next time he appeared in a race programme was yesterday morning when he was due to make his Hong Kong debut in the concluding Lung Kung Handicap, a Class 2 race over a mile and worth £111,000 to the winner.

My former Daily Telegraph colleague, Jim McGrath, busily mopping up assignments all around the globe in his lucrative later years, penned a piece about the card in yesterday’s Racing Post. He suggested the former Richard Hannon horse Tigre du Terre was the one to be on.

But in a very competitive field he could finish only ninth, failing to build on a promising debut run last month. If any Kingsclere Racing Club member is none the wiser, I am very sad for you. Clearly a substantial price was forthcoming for their former money-spinner. At that point no doubt any ongoing pecuniary benefit would have ended in the way Motivator’s sale as a stallion did not enrich Sir Clement Freud and the rest of the Royal Ascot RC membership. I’m sure the Balding family and the club officials have that element firmly defined. This seems a very well-run and highly-successful enterprise from where I’m looking.

In the manner of Hong Kong racing, the new proud owner, Mr Leng Shek Kong, chose a “lucky” name for his investment at which point La Ying Star was born. When I looked briefly down the list yesterday morning, I could not understand why a horse with three wins to his name should be available at outsider odds in that 9.45 a.m. race.

Later, having not been professional enough to watch live – and even Jim’s wise words when I saw them had already been overtaken by actual events – I saw that the 3111- form figure horse had indeed won. I’m sure that even after the BHA hike from 93 to 104 as a result of York his previous owners would not have been dissuaded from backing him again wherever he appeared after wins at 2-1, 8-11 and 5-1.

If they were aware of his new surroundings they would have been rewarded at 29-1. If it had been me, I’m sure I’d have missed the Hong Kong wedding but tucked in at the Geordie funeral!

There were three more UK imports in the field. Sixth home Charity Go (BHA106) was also ex-Balding and this was the third Hong Kong outing for the former Fortune’s Pearl. He was a Qatar Racing “discard” if you could ever refer to the high-price Hong Kong Derby turkey shoot in that way, such are the prices received.

Ninth over the line was Classic Beauty (BHA 103) and unraced since winning easily at Naas in June for Adrian Paul Keatley. That was his third try for the one-time London Icon in the Far East where his record stands at 10/9/9. Lastly Tigre du Terre, no name change here, won three of nine for Hannon in the colours of another great ownership entity, Middleham Park.

It would be nice to think that the 25 or however many members there were last year, and will be for the new team in 2019, had their brains on at 29-1. Almost better than having 2% of the £111k!

As for New Year resolutions, I have made one in particular. Here and especially now – maybe later – might not be the place to reveal the details of a financial difficulty that has appeared in the carrying out of my usual function. What I have promised myself is that having spent the first almost 50 years of my horse-racing-aware (so 1962 on) life knowing pretty much everything about what’s running and therefore might be capable of winning each day, and latterly slipped markedly into sloth, I’m not too old or tired out to renew full attention. As someone – more than one – says from time to time, “You can still find them!” I realise, though, you have to look first. I’m looking, mark my words, and now and then I’ll feel confident enough to pass them on! Have a Happy Punting New Year.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 29th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.00 Newmarket : Main Edition @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Overall leader far side, ridden and headed entering final furlong, no extra and lost 2nd towards finish) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.35 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Soft ground, worth £6081 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner last time out 15 days ago when comfortably landing the spoils over this very course and distance in a better race (Class 3) than this one, despite being poorly drawn in stall 8 of 10.

His trainer Andrew Balding has got his runners firing of late, as his Flat handicappers are 19 from 86 (22.1% SR) for 8.27pts (+9.61% ROI) over the last 30 days, whilst more long-term (ie since 2010) his record here on the Roodee stands at 61 from 265 (23% SR) for 157.4pts (+59.4% ROI).

These are excellent track records and include of relevance/note today...

  • handicappers at 42/166 (25.3%) for 116.8pts (+70.4%)
  • over the last three seasons : 29/116 (25%) for 96.8pts (+83.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 30/107 (28%) for 92.9pts (+86.8%)
  • in September : 18/67 (26.9%) for 33.5pts (+50%)
  • LTO winners are 12/54 (22.2%) for 33.7pts (+62.5%)

And that LTO winners stat isn't restricted to Chester as since 2012, Mr Balding's LTO winners are 137/664 (20.6% SR) for 142.9pts (+21.5% ROI), including 72 winners from 337 (21.4%) for 126.5pts (+37.5%) over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs.

Our jockey today is Joshua Bryan, who didn't have a ride yesterday, but did win both his contests on Thursday over at Pontefract, firstly landing an SotD win on Francis Xavier, before winning for Andrew Balding later on the card.

Joshua has already won three races here at Chester this season from just 12 (25% SR) handicap contests for profits of 14.72pts (+122.7% ROI) and these include...

  • over 6 to 7.5 furlongs : 3/6 (50%) for 20.72pts (+345.4%)
  • for Andrew Balding : 2/7 (28.6%) for 1.52pts (+21.7%)
  • and over 6 to 7.5f for Mr Balding : 2/4 (50%) for 4.52pts (+113%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by ten different firms at 6.00pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.15 Ffos Las : Air of York @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 7/1 (Held up, headway over 2f out, soon chasing leaders, never able to challenge, weakened closing stages)

Wednessday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pot Luck 3/1 BOG

In a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 2yr old filly trained by Andrew Balding, whose runners are in fine form right now (wish I was!), notching up 8 winners from 19 (42.1% SR) over the last 7 days.

More long-term, Andrew's runners making their second start in a handicap are 40 from 229 (17.5% SR) for 99.9pts (+43.6% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these runners include...

  • June-October : 24/143 (16.8%) for 114pts (+79.7%)
  • 7f/1m : 13/76 (17.1%) for 62.8pts (+82.7%)
  • females : 13/66 (19.7%) for 52.8pts (+80%)
  • in 2018 : 10/36 (27.8%) for 69.5pts (+192.9%)
  • Class 6 : 8/34 (23.5%) for 2.9pts (+8.6%)
  • at Kempton : 8/33 (24.2%) for 22.4pts (+68%)

...AND... females at 7f/1m in June-October = 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 53.9pts (+359.6% ROI) including 2 wins from 3 this year so far.

Joshua Bryan takes the ride today and takes 3lbs off our girl's back with his claim and Andrew Balding + A/W handicaps + 3lb claimers = 14/59 (23.7% SR) for 26.3pts (+44.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, including of relevance today...

  • on Polytrack : 13/48 (27.1%) for 14.5pts (+30.1%)
  • over 7f to 8.5f : 7/27 (25.9%) for 9.04pts (+33.5%)
  • Sub-5/1 shots are 11/25 (44%) for 19pts (+76%)
  • and here at Kempton : 5/14 (35.7%) for 19.4pts (+138.5%)

...AND...at odds shorter than 5/1 on Polytrack over 7f to 8.5f = 6/10 (60% SR) for 14.87pts (+148.7% ROI) with one winner from two here at Kempton showing 3.75pts profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pot Luck 3/1 BOGa price offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2017

Wednesday's Result :

8.10 Kempton : Banish @ 8/1 BOG (6.4/1 after 20p R4) WON at 5/1 : Switched right after start, took keen hold towards rear, travelling strongly on inside 3f out, headway over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, driven to lead inside final furlong, stayed on op...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Summer Chorus @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old filly has finished 322 in her last three outings and was only beaten by half a length last time out. That was 26 days ago, when behind Big Tour who has since won again off a mark 4lbs higher and up in class, so if the form holds out, we could be well in.

She's got 1 win and 1 place from 2 starts here and possesses the same record under today's jockey Oisin Murphy and her trainer Andrew Balding is in good form right now, saddling up 8 winners from 37 (21.6% SR) over the last fortnight.

More long-term, the Balding yard is 18/93 (19.4% SR) for 58.7pts (+63.1% ROI) with handicappers priced at 12/1 and shorter on the Rowley track here since 2009, from which...

  • those last seen 11-30 days ago are 13/45 (28.9%) for 49.9pts (+110.8%)
  • 4 yr olds are 7/28 (25%) for 38pts (+135.6%)
  • at Class 3  : 5/27 (18.5%) for 26.3pts (+97.2%)
  • females are 4/15 (26.7%) for 16.6pts (+110.9%)
  • and over 7 furlongs : 3/12 (25%) for 172pts (+143.7%)

And then there's the matter of 3 to 5 yr olds running over 7/7.5 furlongs on the Flat after three consecutive top 3 placings. Such horses that were 2nd or 3rd last time out 6-30 days earlier are 96/442 (21.7% SR) for 177.8pts (+40.2% ROI) over the last six seasons, including...

  • those last seen 11-30 days ago : 80/355 (22.5%) for 181.4pts (+51.1%)
  • females are 40/145 (27.6%) for 164.5pts (+113.4%)
  • at Class 3 : 18/49 (36.7%) for 80.8pts (+164.9%)
  • and on the Rowley : 3/6 950%) for 49.3pts (+821.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Summer Chorus @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2017

Monday's Result :

5.00 Brighton : Black Caesar @ 11/2 BOG (3.85/1 after 30p R4)- WON at 7/2 : Led early, chased leader, switched right 2f out, led entering final furlong, soon clear, comfortably home by 6 lengths...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Golden Salute @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

A fourth start for this progressive-looking filly, who is 2 from 2 after finishing 7th on debut earlier in "the summer" (as some people still like to call the middle part of the year!), more is needed on handicap/nursery debut of course, but the signs are good, for...

...trainer Andrew Balding's late season 2 yr olds are something I look out for. Well, more specifically, I look for runners to fulfil the following criteria...

...2009-17 / Flat / Class 1 to 4 / 5 to 7 furlongs / July to October / just 0-3 career runs to date - this sounds quite restrictive, but it's a nice little micro good for around 35 bets a season and to date stands at 39/303 (12.9% SR) for 38.2pts (+126.1% ROI) profit.

Those numbers are then backed up by Mr Balding's record since 2010 with 2 to 4 yr olds making a handicap debut after at least one career win and such beasts are 24/113 (21.2% SR) for 46.5pts (+41.2% ROI) in the 6/4 to 12/1 broad odds range, with today's jockey, Geegeez-sponsored, David Probert riding 14 of those of 24 winners from just 41 attempts (34.2% SR) for profits of 45.4pts (+110.8% ROI).

Lucky pants?

Lucky pants?

So, if the "lucky Geegeez pants" work their magic again today...

...we're well set with... a 1pt win bet on Golden Salute @ 5/2 BOG, which was widely available at 8.30pm on Monday: the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Sky again. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th May 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.15 Perth : Caius Marcius @ 4/1 BOG WON at 13/8 Held up in touch, effort to chase leader after 3 out, led just before last, ridden out to win by the best part of three lengths.

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.10 Newmarket...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Passcode9/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly, 3rd on debut over 7f on good to soft, but outpaced late on, stepped up to this 1m trip for her next/last run some 181 days later (31 days ago) and was a winner by a short head.

I'd expect her to improve for having had the pipe opener last month and confidence will be high at home, as trainer Andrew Balding is 4 from 8 this week already and his Class 5 handicappers having only their 2nd run inside a 90 day period are 31/137 (22.6% SR) for 92.6pts (+67.6% ROI) since 2008, from which...

  • those last seen 11-45 days back are 26/105 (24.8%) for 97.4pts (+92.8%)
  • over 6f to 1m2f : 21/95 (22.1%) for 79.3pts (+83.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 19/79 (24.1%) for 82.3pts (+104.2%)
  • females are 10/40 (25%) for 48pts (+120%)
  • those on hcp debut are 10/32 (31.25%) for 50.5pts (+157.8%)
  • and LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9%) for 14.2pts (+101.5%)

That handicap debut stat above is unsurprising to be honest, as his 3 yr old handicap debutants priced shorter than 5/1 are 17 from 50 (34% SR) for 20.1pts (+40.2% ROI) profit since the start of 2014...

...which give us...a 1pt win bet on Passcode9/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Some thoughts for Chester’s May meeting

Chester's May meeting is an early season highlight, offering socialites, more serious racegoers and the occasional Derby aspirant the chance to peacock around the Roodee. The famous bullring circuit, just nine furlongs in circumference, is fiendishly tight and there is a commensurate bias to those who are agile - and fast - enough to slide around the inside banister.

geegeez.co.uk has more information on Chester racecourse here. But what can we say specifically about the May meeting at Chester?

Chester May Meeting: Trainers

Using geegeez.co.uk's new Query Tool (QT) enables us to look at recent trainer form for a specific event like this. To do so, select the month of May, and Chester in the course area:

Specifying Chester's May meeting in geegeez's Query Tool

Specifying Chester's May meeting in geegeez's Query Tool

 

By placing a check in the circle to the left of the 'TRAINER' parameter and clicking 'Generate Report' again, we can see trainer performance for the Chester May meeting. I've sorted by number of wins in the image below.

Outstanding training performances by Aidan O'Brien and John Gosden at Chester in recent years

Outstanding training performances by Aidan O'Brien and John Gosden at Chester in recent years

 

The performance of Messrs. O'Brien and Gosden is spectacular, the former recording a 43.5% win strike rate, the latter a 63% in the frame record. And that from approximately five runners each per year.

 

Handicap trainers

But what of the handicaps only? There are some super competitive heats over the three days and, at that slightly lower level, different training names come to the fore. Let's add HANDICAP to our list of filters, and do the same 'Group by Trainer' report:

Andrew Balding and Ed Dunlop have excellent records, and Sir Michael Stoute has been very unlucky in Chester May handicaps

Andrew Balding and Ed Dunlop have excellent records, and Sir Michael Stoute has been very unlucky in Chester May handicaps

 

It is easy to see that Ed Dunlop and, from a larger sample, Andrew Balding have fared really well in Chester May meeting handicaps. But it is also worth noting Sir Michael Stoute: his two from fifteen record is unremarkable, until we note that more than half of them have hit the board. It would be no surprise to see Sir Michael's fortunes change this week.

What about the top races?

Selecting Class 1 (i.e. Listed or Group) races only confirms the stranglehold that Team Ballydoyle has on the big races at Chester's May meeting.

Aidan O'Brien has a mighty record in Class 1 events at Chester's May meeting

Aidan O'Brien has a mighty record in Class 1 events at Chester's May meeting

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

Aidan O'Brien has won 16 of the 40 Pattern races run at Chester in May since 2009. That's 40% of them, from just 34 runners. His performance is incredible and looks set to continue this week with a typically strong hand of three-year-olds and older horses.

 

Chester May Meeting: Draw

As alluded to in my introduction, the draw at Chester has a huge bearing on how races are run, especially over sprint distances. Using geegeez.co.uk's Draw Analyser tool, we can see just how relevant a good draw generally is, especially when the going is on the quick side. The forecast is largely dry for the week and the current going description is good, good to firm in places.

Five furlong handicaps

Let's plug that into our Draw Analyser, along with a selection of handicap races only and 10+ runners; and we'll initially look at five to five and a half furlong races.

Low is heavily favoured at the shortest trips; and high is heavily UNfavoured

Low is heavily favoured at the shortest trips; and high is heavily UNfavoured

 

I wanted to include the constituent draw table so that you could see the strong linearity in the place percentages of finishers by stall position. That stall 1 has made the frame in two-thirds of all five and five-and-a-half furlong sprints in big fields on quick ground since 2009 is telling. No wonder so many absentees emerge from the car park post positions.

 

Six and seven furlong handicaps

So far so obvious, perhaps, though it is always interesting to note the concrete evidence data provides to support or resist a general perception. But what of longer sprint trips? What of six- and seven furlong handicaps? A quick change to the distance ranges and we have our answer:

Still an inside draw bias, but it is less pronounced over 6 and 7furlongs at Chester

Still an inside draw bias, but it is less pronounced over 6 and 7furlongs at Chester

 

As you can see, there is still a bias towards those drawn low but it is not nearly as pronounced as over the shortest distances. Indeed, middle drawn horses have fared pretty much as well as those on the inside, but it is still the case that a high draw is a very difficult condition to overcome.

Notice at the bottom the Heat Map. This is a simple chart that attempts to overlay the historical draw positions against a horse's run style. The arrow formation top right in the chart implies a bias towards early speed and an inside to middle draw.

Conversely, note the relatively poor performance of those drawn high, regardless of run style; and it also looks difficult to overcome a low draw if you're a hold up sort racing at six or seven furlongs in a double digit field.

None of the sample sizes used here are particularly big, so keep in mind that the above is indicative rather than assertive. But it confirms what is often said: it is very difficult to overcome a wide draw in a big field on fast ground at Chester.

 

Chester May Meeting: Jockeys

Can a jockey make a difference at Chester? Most riders are, to a large extent, hostages to the fortunes of their trainers and horses; but at the more unconventional courses, can it be an advantage to have an experienced pilot in one's corner?

Although the answer is probably yes, there is a degree of cause and effect in that if a jockey gets a reputation as being skilled over a certain circuit he is more likely to pick up the plum rides. The flip side is that, if a jockey is retained by a particular stable, he will be susceptible to the form of that yard.

Regardless, here is QT on Chester May meeting jockey performance, in handicaps only.

The top handicap jockeys at Chester's May meeting since 2009

The top handicap jockeys at Chester's May meeting since 2009

 

Some interesting gen comes to light here. First, that example of positive discrimination: Francis Norton is widely held as the 'go to guy' for Chester, and he certainly does ride the track very well as can be seen from his seven handicap winners at this meeting since 2009. But they've come from 64 rides, an 11% clip, and just 0.85 on the A/E scale.

Compare that with Jamie Spencer, supposedly a hold up rider on a speed-favouring track. His nine winners have come from just 48 rides at an A/E of 1.54. Not only that but he can back up a 19% win rate with a 44% place rate. Jamie Spencer, in fact, is one of the best judges of pace in the weighing room, from the back or the front of the field. He gets it wrong sometimes - that's an occupational hazard - but I'd never be put off a bet at any track with Spencer in the plate (and yes, I have changed my position on this in recent years!)

Lower down, Steve Donohoe is an interesting name. His three handicap winners from 20 rides is fine - good even - but nine podium finishes is a very solid effort. He could be worth keeping onside.

 

Chester May meeting: Summary

We're all set for three excellent days of racing on the Roodee. With a little luck we'll come out in front by noting the above. In some ways, there is nothing new in trumpeting the form of Aidan O'Brien in Class 1 races at the meeting, nor in flagging that inside draws have the best of it in bigger field sprints on fast ground.

But such awareness can become the cornerstone of a betting strategy for the week. If playing placepots or intra-race bets like exactas and trifectas, knowing that Jamie Spencer is a high strike rate handicap jockey, or that Andrew Balding and Ed Dunlop should always be in mind in Chester handicaps, or even that Aidan's horse probably will win the Derby trial, will help frame decisions about when to go narrow and when to go deep.

Good luck with your Chester May meeting wagers - it should be a terrific three days!

Matt

p.s. if you'd like more race-by-race statistical lowdown, check out these Chester TV Trends: Wednesday

 

Stat of the Day, 8th March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Southwell : Crosse Fire @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Prominent, ridden over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, stayed on, beaten by just over half a length.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Make Music13/2 BOG

Why?

Well, on another day that's hardly brimming with decent statistical options, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with a 4yr old who has 3 wins and a place from just 5 visits to Lingfield (2 wins from 3 on the A/W) and has a 2 from 6 record under today's jockey David Probert.

She's trained by Andrew Balding whose runners have won 48 of their 280 A/W races here at Lingfield since the start of 2013 and that 17.1% strike rate is good for level stakes profits of 76.1pts at an ROI of 27.2%. These are decent enough figures to base a bet on, especially when I feel the horse is overpriced at as high as 7/1 (she was actually 12's at one point!).

More confidence is gained from breaking the trainer's record down into components of today's race, because those 280 Andrew Balding Lingfield runners have achieved the following under today's conditions...

  • over 6f to 1m : 27/170 (15.9%) for 115.6pts (+68%)
  • running 16-30 days after last run : 18/97 (18.6%) for 123pts (+126.8%)
  • ridden by David Probert : 19/96 (19.8%) for 73.3pts (+76.4%)
  • 4 yr olds are 14/50 (28%) for 35.5pts (+71%)
  • and at Class 4 : 8/26 (30.8%) for 28.8pts (+110.6%)

...providing...a 1pt win bet on Make Music 13/2 BOG which was available with Hills, Betbright, BetVictor and/or Coral at 6.35pm on Tuesday, but if you can, DO take the 7/1 BOG-plus on offer from Betway. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 4th February 2017

Friday's Result :

3.20 Catterick : Actinpieces @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1 Held up in touch in last pair, steady headway tracking leaders 4 out, 3rd next, ridden and went 2nd last, stayed on to lead final 110 yards to win by 3.25 lengths.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Verne Castle @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old gelding has won three of his last four, over over this 5f trip on the A/W and was 5th last time out 30 days ago, when probably needing the run after 15 weeks off the track.

To date, he's 3/5 on standard, 3/5 @ 5f, 3/5 going left handed, 3/4 in a hood and 3/3 within 30 days of his last run, so he's certainly got optimum conditions here.

The Andrew Balding / David Probert / Lingfield AW handicap angle is a good one, as since 2009 with runners priced at 14/1 or shorter, they are 12/60 (20% SR) for 14.2pts (+23.6% ROI) profit, including...

  • 3-5 yr olds : 12/53 (22.6%) for 21.2pts (+40%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 8/39 (20.5%) for 12.2pts (+31.3%)
  • and at Class 4 : 4/13 (30.8%) for 22.9pts (+175.8%)

In addition to the above, there's another angle suggesting a good run today, as since 2008, Andrew Balding / Class 4&5 handicappers / only 1 previous run in the past 90 days = 52/290 (17.9% SR) for 118.7pts (+40.9% ROI), with the following of interest/relevance...

  • 6-30 dslr : 42/206 (20.4%) for 140.7pts (+68.3%)
  • on the A/W : 21/109 (19.3%) for 31.5pts (+28.9%)
  • 4 yr olds are 16/70 (22.9%) for 46.1pts (+65.8%)
  • at Lingfield : 10/39 (25.6%) for 24.1pts (+61.9%)
  • and over the minimum 5f trip : 3/10 (30%) for 2.23pts (+22.3%)

...so for Saturday...a 1pt win bet on Verne Castle @ 9/2 BOG which was pretty widely available at 7.00pm on Friday To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

A Chat with David Probert

Last week, jockey David Probert began wearing some new 'lucky pants'. Actually, they're breeches adorned with the geegeez.co.uk logo and, so far, they've proved four-tuitous for the Welsh rider, who has since accrued four wins in six days.

David was kind enough to take time to chat with me about various things, amongst them his career to date, influences, and horses, trainers and jockeys to look out.

His introduction to horses came via his father, who had point-to-pointers and ponies, and David started out in pony races. Then, as a fresh-faced 16-year-old he travelled to the British Racing School to undertake a nine week pre-apprenticeship course. From there, he was dealt the plum hand of an apprenticeship at Andrew Balding's Kingsclere stables.

Kingsclere has an exceptional - and thoroughly deserved - reputation for schooling young jockeys, under the diligent tutelage of Andrew and father, Ian. And it is a yard from which Probert has formed a robust allegiance that has lasted close to a decade thus far.

David's first ride under rules was in December 2006, when he partnered Tiny Tim, a 20/1 shot, to fifth of twelve at Lingfield. In an age where persistence seems rather unfashionable, it is sobering to consider that a year (less a few days) and forty further rides elapsed before Probert's maiden victory.

That was aboard Bernard Llewellyn's Mountain Pass in early December 2007.

And then the fun started...

Your first 30 days for just £1

In 2008, this no-name seven pound bug jockey scaled the saddle for 458 rides, winning on exactly fifty of them. That half-century was enough for a half-share of the Apprentice Championship, the other half going to William Buick - remarkably also riding out of the Kingsclere stable.

Recalling that year brings a broad smile to the now relative veteran of the weighing room. "It was pretty special. We got on very well, we've always been very good friends and we just bounced off each other that year".

Probert is keen to acknowledge the setup at Kingsclere, and the variety of terrain at the horses' - and riders' - disposal. "It's such a great facility, with different types of gallops to suit pretty much every horse. It improves your riding so much. Riding different horses on different gallops prepares you physically and mentally for race riding".

He also had praise for the work that Balding, Snr., puts in with the young lads. "Ian always takes time to go over the races after the apprentices have finished their rides, to help them. He's always riding out in the mornings telling them what they're doing right and wrong and so on. He's very good".

Currently starring in Kingsclere's version of The Apprentice are Rob Hornby, Ed Greatrex, and a couple of younger pilots in Will Cox and Josh Bryan. While the latter pair have had just three rides apiece to date, Bryan unlucky to get chinned on the line at Salisbury last week, Greatrex and Hornby are steaming ahead.

The more experienced duo have notched 107 wins between them, Hornby claiming the lion's share to date, with 65. Of the younger pair, Probert likes what he's seen, noting that "Josh is very talented and is definitely one to keep an eye on, while Will is up-and-coming too".

Looking at the bigger picture, Probert's model jockey is Kieren Fallon. "I think Kieren's a great rider. I follow him quite a bit. He was always very good when I was an apprentice as well, helping me to understand things I could do better. Ryan [Moore] is also very good, as are all the senior lads really. They're always willing to give help to the young lads".

As well as the physical attributes - a lot of strength and agility summoned from not a lot of body mass - jockeys need mental strength, too. In response to my question about whether riding was a confidence game, Probert nods. "Yes, I think it has a lot to do with it. When you're riding winners, it definitely helps you mentally, perhaps reading races a bit better. Race riding involves a lot of split second decisions, and when you're riding with a lot of confidence less things seem to go wrong."

The Kingsclere model clearly imbues riders with confidence, the trainer happy for his jockeys to use their racing brains when Plan A goes west for whatever reason.

With the season now well underway, what, I wondered, was David's target for 2016. Unsurprisingly, he is keen to "just keep riding winners". After a short pause, he added, "I rode a hundred winners two years ago, and I'd love to do that again. If I could achieve that, that'd be perfect."

Probert rides for lots of outside stables - that is, besides Kingsclere - and, when pushed to nominate a couple for whom he has done especially well, he flagged the yards of Michael Blanshard and Philip McBride. "Michael hasn't got many horses, but he seems to place them very well, and his horses are always fit. The same is true with Philip".

McBride has a very nice filly, called Squash, on which David was second in the Nell Gwyn Stakes, and about which the form book attests to Probert's assertion that she is an "exciting filly for the season".

It was my intention not to ask about specific horses but, despite myself, I couldn't resist fishing to see if there was one in the yard that might be worth following through the year. On David's behalf, I'd like to scream caveat emptor and, in that spirit and by way of closing, offer his two word answer. "Dark Shot".

- Matt

 

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2015

Jockey Joe Doyle and horse Tom Sawyer did absolutely nothing wrong at Beverley and looked to have timed their run to the line to perfection, but we were all undone by a flying finisher who pipped us in the shadow of the post.

There's something reassuring about backing a 4/1 runner-up at 7/1 BOG and coming within a neck of pulling off a bit of a gamble, but near misses don't pay cash! August (and Mondays in particular) has been good to us and whatever happens today, we'll finish with a handsome profit from the month.

I would, however, like to bow out with one more winner via the...

4.45 Epsom :

Your first 30 days for just £1

But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I'm away on holiday at present, but I've now a daily routine established.

If SotD isn't now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 8.30am & 9.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.

And a 5/2 BOG bet on Passover in this 8-runner, Class 3 handicap over 1m2f on soft ground with a horse in great form of late.

In the last 7 seasons, trainer Andrew Balding is 30/163 (18.4% SR) for 107pts (+65.7% ROI) profit here at Epsom. From that record, jockey David Probert is 13/64 (20.3% SR) for 33.7pts (+52.6% ROI)

Passover is 3/5 on the Flat, but 3 from 3 since stepping up to today's 1m2f trip and was a course and distance winner by 7 lengths here two starts ago and won by the same margin at Sandown last time out, 25 days ago.

In the last 3 seasons, Andrew Balding's runners returning to the scene of a course and distance win off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 25.4pts (+90.7% ROI).

Those runners running at the same trip as last time are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 24.6pts (+91.2% ROI) with those priced below 7/2 winning 9 of 17 (52.9% SR) for 8.4pts (+49.4% ROI).

All 3 wins for Passover to date share many of the factors that will be at play today, namely...

  • all over 1m2f
  • all in races of 7 to 11 runners
  • all within 30 days of his last run
  • all wearing a hood
  • all wearing a tongue tie
  • and all below 7/2

I've taken my 5/2 BOG about Passover from Coral, as they'll refund a defeat by a head, but with several other firms offering the same price, you should...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

SotD, Monday 31st August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2015

Jockey Joe Doyle and horse Tom Sawyer did absolutely nothing wrong at Beverley and looked to have timed their run to the line to perfection, but we were all undone by a flying finisher who pipped us in the shadow of the post.

There's something reassuring about backing a 4/1 runner-up at 7/1 BOG and coming within a neck of pulling off a bit of a gamble, but near misses don't pay cash! August (and Mondays in particular) has been good to us and whatever happens today, we'll finish with a handsome profit from the month.

I would, however, like to bow out with one more winner via the...

4.45 Epsom :

But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I'm away on holiday at present, but I've now a daily routine established.

If SotD isn't now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 8.30am & 9.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.

And a 5/2 BOG bet on Passover in this 8-runner, Class 3 handicap over 1m2f on soft ground with a horse in great form of late.

In the last 7 seasons, trainer Andrew Balding is 30/163 (18.4% SR) for 107pts (+65.7% ROI) profit here at Epsom. From that record, jockey David Probert is 13/64 (20.3% SR) for 33.7pts (+52.6% ROI)

Passover is 3/5 on the Flat, but 3 from 3 since stepping up to today's 1m2f trip and was a course and distance winner by 7 lengths here two starts ago and won by the same margin at Sandown last time out, 25 days ago.

In the last 3 seasons, Andrew Balding's runners returning to the scene of a course and distance win off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 25.4pts (+90.7% ROI).

Those runners running at the same trip as last time are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 24.6pts (+91.2% ROI) with those priced below 7/2 winning 9 of 17 (52.9% SR) for 8.4pts (+49.4% ROI).

All 3 wins for Passover to date share many of the factors that will be at play today, namely...

  • all over 1m2f
  • all in races of 7 to 11 runners
  • all within 30 days of his last run
  • all wearing a hood
  • all wearing a tongue tie
  • and all below 7/2

I've taken my 5/2 BOG about Passover from Coral, as they'll refund a defeat by a head, but with several other firms offering the same price, you should...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2015

No winner on Saturday to cap another fine week, I'm afraid, but certainly no complaints about the run we got for our money at Newbury either.

Pin Up was sent off as 9/4 favourite, having been well supported from my advised 7/2 bet and I don't think he could have given us much more than he did, ably assisted by jockey Alyson Deniel.

The pair of them looked to have done everything in their power to land the race for us, but on the day, the winner was just too good for them. The presence of Serena Brotherton in the saddle no doubt helped there too.

I wasn't too downhearted really, Pin Up certainly ran his race and despite the loss we still made a handsome profit on the week, a feat I'd like to repeat this week too, starting with Monday's...

Your first 30 days for just £1

5.35 Windsor :

Where Betfair Sportsbook are offering 5/1 BOG about Andrew Balding's 2yr old filly, Dancing Star.

Andrew's record here at Windsor since 2009 is 34 winners from 180 (18.9% SR) for 50.1pts (+27.8% ROI). In maidens, he is 13/68 (19.1% SR) for 4.63pts (+6.81% ROI), whilst his 2 yr olds are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 19.96pts (+64.2% ROI)

Andrew Balding's 2yo maidens running at odds of 8/1 or shorter here at Windsor are 6/15 (40% SR) for 10.6pts (+70.7% ROI)

David Probert is in the saddle today and he rides the Balding maidens well, with 79 winners from 450 (17.6% SR) for 180.2pts (+40% ROI) profit and will look to improve those figures on Dancing Star who steps up in trip to 6f after showing some promise in defeat here at Windsor last time out.

That run was, in fairness, her debut and after taking a while to get going, was staying on really well in the closing stages, suggesting a longer trip would be better for her, a thought backed up in her breeding.

Nevertheless, it's interesting to note that Andrew Balding is very good at getting more from a horse on its second run, as since 2008, those horses trained by Andrew, whose second run is on the Flat after failing to make the frame and beaten by 2 to 10 lengths last time out is : 18/103 (17.5% SR) for 14.9pts (+14.5% ROI).

Of those 103 runners, 2yr olds are 15/69 (21.7% SR) for 39.2pts (+36.9% ROI), whilst those stepping up a furlong are 6/24 (25% SR) for 15.4pts (+64.2% ROI).

His 2yr olds stepping a furllong are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 18.4pts at an ROI of 87.6% and all this hopefully points a good run from Dancing Star.

Betfair are the best price so far, but you can always...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

SotD, Monday 17th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2015

No winner on Saturday to cap another fine week, I'm afraid, but certainly no complaints about the run we got for our money at Newbury either.

Pin Up was sent off as 9/4 favourite, having been well supported from my advised 7/2 bet and I don't think he could have given us much more than he did, ably assisted by jockey Alyson Deniel.

The pair of them looked to have done everything in their power to land the race for us, but on the day, the winner was just too good for them. The presence of Serena Brotherton in the saddle no doubt helped there too.

I wasn't too downhearted really, Pin Up certainly ran his race and despite the loss we still made a handsome profit on the week, a feat I'd like to repeat this week too, starting with Monday's...

5.35 Windsor :

Where Betfair Sportsbook are offering 5/1 BOG about Andrew Balding's 2yr old filly, Dancing Star.

Andrew's record here at Windsor since 2009 is 34 winners from 180 (18.9% SR) for 50.1pts (+27.8% ROI). In maidens, he is 13/68 (19.1% SR) for 4.63pts (+6.81% ROI), whilst his 2 yr olds are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 19.96pts (+64.2% ROI)

Andrew Balding's 2yo maidens running at odds of 8/1 or shorter here at Windsor are 6/15 (40% SR) for 10.6pts (+70.7% ROI)

David Probert is in the saddle today and he rides the Balding maidens well, with 79 winners from 450 (17.6% SR) for 180.2pts (+40% ROI) profit and will look to improve those figures on Dancing Star who steps up in trip to 6f after showing some promise in defeat here at Windsor last time out.

That run was, in fairness, her debut and after taking a while to get going, was staying on really well in the closing stages, suggesting a longer trip would be better for her, a thought backed up in her breeding.

Nevertheless, it's interesting to note that Andrew Balding is very good at getting more from a horse on its second run, as since 2008, those horses trained by Andrew, whose second run is on the Flat after failing to make the frame and beaten by 2 to 10 lengths last time out is : 18/103 (17.5% SR) for 14.9pts (+14.5% ROI).

Of those 103 runners, 2yr olds are 15/69 (21.7% SR) for 39.2pts (+36.9% ROI), whilst those stepping up a furlong are 6/24 (25% SR) for 15.4pts (+64.2% ROI).

His 2yr olds stepping a furllong are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 18.4pts at an ROI of 87.6% and all this hopefully points a good run from Dancing Star.

Betfair are the best price so far, but you can always...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.