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Hollie Doyle up and running for new turf campaign

Hollie Doyle’s turf campaign got off to a winning start as she steered Outbox to a comfortable success in the Unibet Conditions Stakes at Doncaster

The six-year-old moved to Archie Watson’s Lambourn stable in December and scored for the first time for his new yard when taking an all-weather handicap contest at Wolverhampton in early March.

He followed that success up with another over the same mile-and-a-half trip on Town Moor, starting as 4-5 favourite and leading at a steady pace before quickening to record a length-and-a-quarter victory over Raymond Tusk.

“He had it easy (in front), but he still galloped away and he’s done it nicely,” Doyle said.

“It’s a very a strong headwind, but when you’ve got it that easy you can step up and make the running.

“It’s great to get a turf winner under the belt as it’s always a frustrating time if you can’t get that first win in.

“Our horses are absolutely flying and it’s just great for the yard as well to get off to a good start.

“He’s really grown in confidence and physically he’s doing very well, he could be one to look forward to.”

Tamborrada remains unbeaten after claiming his first race on turf, the 10-furlong Unibet Handicap.

Trained by Charlie Appleby, the Dubawi gelding has scored twice on the all-weather already this year and notched a hat-trick in running out victorious by a neck under James Doyle.

Starting as 10-11 favourite, the three-year-old was locked in a final-furlong battle with Mark Johnston’s Annandale, also a twice winner, and eventually held off his challenger to triumph by a neck.

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Tamborrada got his head in front at Doncaster under James Doyle
Tamborrada got his head in front at Doncaster under James Doyle (Mike Egerton/PA)

“We went a fairly even tempo and he just struggled to get his act together earlier on,” Doyle said.

“Whether that was the slightly tightening ground, I’m not sure.

“I wasn’t confident throughout and (Annandale) built into it nicely, as the Johnston horses do, they knuckle down well.

“We got into a bit of a scrap and he just edged ahead.

“He’s still learning, he had a bit of a look at the signs and took his foot of the gas late on but I think there’s plenty still to come from him.”

Sidelined jockey Andrea Atzeni missed another winner as the Kevin Ryan-trained Throne Hall triumphed in the 32Red Casino Handicap for stand-in pilot Kevin Stott.

Atzeni was forced to self-isolate after a passenger on his return flight from Bahrain tested positive for Covid-19, leaving PJ McDonald to take his winning ride aboard Artistic Rifles in the Spring Mile on Saturday.

This time Stott was the beneficiary, steering four-year-old Throne Hall to a one-and-three-quarter-length success on his first run since being gelded.

“He’s still a big, big baby,” the jockey said.

“He’s got a bit of growing to do, but he’s a very nice horse.

“He’s done well over the winter and he’s got loads to do yet, but going forward he’s something to look forward to.”

A gelding operation seemed to make all of the difference for Tahitian Prince too, as he shed his maiden tag when taking the seven-furlong 32red.com Handicap at 14-1 for Richard Hannon and Sean Levey.

Tahitian Prince (right) initiated a double for Richard Hannon
Tahitian Prince (right) initiated a double for Richard Hannon (Mike Egerton/PA)

The four-year-old had run six times without a win, but cheekpieces seemed to have brought about some improvement when he was fourth last time out and he was game on this occasion to edge past 4-1 market leader Dirty Rascal and prevail by a neck.

“He’s been hard work,” Levey said of the horse.

“But he’s come here with the cheekpieces on again, he’s been very straight and he’s done all the right things today.

“I think we can get a bit more out of him, hopefully.”

The going was good at the South Yorkshire track, but conditions were still testing as runners had to battle against a stern 35mph wind that blew down the home straight.

“I thought I had it all sewn up coming into the two-furlong marker, but I couldn’t believe how long it took me to get to the line,” Levey said of the effects of the gust.

“I thought the matter was done, but he had to dig deep and move across the track a few times.

“It’s hard in the last furlong, especially if you’re going to be out there on your own.”

George Peabody carried the Gredley colours to victory
George Peabody carried the Gredley colours to victory (Mike Egerton/PA)

George Peabody demonstrated his promise when taking division one of the Unibet Novice Stakes, building on the fourth-placed effort he produced when making his racecourse debut in an all-weather contest at Kempton in November.

The George Scott-trained gelding travelled in midfield under Callum Shepherd, shaking off the chasing pack with a furlong left to cover and crossing the line three and quarter lengths ahead of his nearest rival to prevail at 11-1.

Division two of the same race then provided Hannon with a double as the Rossa Ryan-ridden Soundslikethunder got the nod after the judge was called upon to split two Nightofthunder colts.

Running for the second time after finishing seventh on his debut last July, the three-year-old was level with stablemate Lexington Knight from the two-furlong pole onwards, with the latter just losing out when a photo finish deemed them to have crossed the line a short-head apart.

Parent’s Prayer travels in hope again

Parent’s Prayer bids to continue her lucrative visits to Ireland when she travels over again for the Lodge Park Stud Irish EBF Park Express Stakes at Naas.

The Archie Watson-trained filly makes her third successive trip across the Irish Sea from Upper Lambourn, having taken a Listed race and finished third in a Group Three contest.

It is at the higher level she competes again on Sunday as she begins a four-year-old campaign which Watson is hoping could be profitable.

“She won a Listed race nicely there at the back end last year. She showed she went well on heavy ground,” he said.

“I’m not sure how wet it’s been there – in terms of if it’s going to be wet, heavy or gluey and tacky – but it looks a very open race, and hopefully a good opportunity for her to win a Group race.

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“There’s a good programme throughout the year for these four-year-old-plus, mile-to-10-furlong fillies. Hopefully it can be a nice starting point. She’s wintered very well. I’m been very happy with her home work, and she’s ready to go.”

Her rivals are headed by the Willie McCreery-trained Epona Plays, who landed a Group Three prize at Gowran in September.

Of the three-year-olds in the eight-runner field, Dermot Weld’s Eylara is a promising type – with a win and a second from her two starts, both in maiden company – while the Paddy Twomey-trained Fantasy Lady took a Listed contest at the Curragh on the last of her three outings as a juvenile.

Ado McGuinness has a couple of concerns about Salstonstall in the Listed Plusvital Devoy Stakes.

The seven-year-old has a 3lb penalty for winning at this level over a mile on this course in November, and the County Lusk trainer is also worried about the extra two furlongs Salstonsall has to run this time.

However, the Pivotal gelding did not fare too badly over a longer trip last time when fourth to True Self in a very valuable race in Saudi Arabia.

McGuinness reports his charge to have taken his travels well.

“He’s great. He’s travelled well really well and he’s in very good form,” he said.

“He has a penalty to carry, so he has it all to do on Sunday. He has to improve again. He’s up against good horses and has to give them weight, because of the penalty he has for winning his Listed race last year.

“He’ll like the ground, but the trip is a little concern. I think he’s better over a mile in those conditions. We’ll be playing our cards late with him.”

King Of Comedy has his first run for Jessica Harrington, having left John Gosden’s stable.

The five-year-old entire has some very smart form, notably when runner-up to Circus Maximus in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2019.

Aidan O’Brien saddles Broome – who was a close fourth in the 2019 Derby behind stablemate Anthony Van Dyck – while his son Joseph has Numerian, a Listed winner and Group placed, among the 12 runners.

Watson calls temporary halt following antibodies test

Archie Watson will not have any runners for the next two weeks after one of his horses was found to have antibodies for a notifiable disease.

The Lambourn handler had been preparing a horse to travel to France when a routine check showed the potential presence of equine viral arteritis.

Watson withdrew intended Southwell runner, Mehmento, on Sunday, as well as three horses on Saturday, while his planned runner at Lingfield on Monday will also not take part as he puts a temporary halt to travel from his yard.

In a statement, Watson said: “We recently had a horse undergo routine testing for transit to France as part of the new export testing protocols. One of these tests revealed the presence of antibodies to EVA. As a result, the relevant bodies, including the BHA, were contacted immediately and we have been taking advice from them.

“The yard is attended daily by our veterinary team and at no point have there been any clinical signs of the disease. Whilst we continue to investigate, the most sensible course of action to safeguard the British racing industry was to stop the movement of horses from my yards as further testing takes place over the next two weeks.

“I would like to thank my staff, veterinarians, and James Given at the BHA for their professionalism and efficiency in managing the situation, and my owners for their understanding and continued support.”

Bryony Frost warms up for Frodon date with Fakenham winner

Bryony Frost will be hoping her victory aboard Martello Sky at Fakenham is a sign of things to come when teaming up with Frodon in the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase on Boxing Day.

The 25-year-old, who will be seeking a second Grade One on the 2019 Ryanair Chase hero at Kempton on Saturday, made her only ride of the day a winning one in the Vote Hollie Doyle Sports Personality 2020 Mares’ Maiden Hurdle.

Picking up well for pressure, the Lucy Wadham-trained four-year-old met the last on a good stride before defeating Allavina by three and a quarter lengths to make it three wins from as many visits to the Norfolk track.

Frost said after her success aboard the 11-8 favourite: “I couldn’t quite hold my position, but the ground is better down the inside and we had to sit and suffer for a minute. The last, she saw it, measured it and pinged it carefully and she went away very well.

“She is very clever and is nimble and balanced for a young mare. She also has a great turn of foot.

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“It is brilliant to get another winner on the board and her owners are all local. I’m sure they will pop a bottle of champagne for her.”

Although Frodon is a general 20-1 chance to strike gold in the King George, Frost reports the Paul Nicholls-trained eight-year-old to be in good order ahead of his return to Grade One company.

She said: “Frodon is squealing and in good health at home. The ground was very tacky between the fences at Aintree (last time out) and I know some people say I’m making excuses, but it’s a race that didn’t happen for us.

“We will push it under the carpet and he has come out of it great. So we will take our chances.”

Archie Watson is better known for his exploits on the Flat, but Juge Et Parti enhanced his healthy strike-rate at the course when bouncing back to form to land the British Racing School Handicap Hurdle by five lengths.

The Lambourn handler said of the 14-1 shot: “I’ve actually got a very good strike-rate here. Bazarov, Premier D’troice and this lad have won here.

“He has been through a lot this horse. He had a fractured tooth which then ended up developing a big sinus infection. He has come out of it well and it his first run since.

“He obviously had an almighty headache which we have relieved and he has come up and won it well. Brodie (Hampson) has given him a great ride.”

Niall Houlihan equalled his best-ever seasonal total of seven winners aboard the Gary Moore-trained Gorham’s Cave (9-2), who claimed the Fakenham Skips Supporting EACH and RBL Handicap Hurdle by nine and a half lengths.

Houlihan, deputising for Josh Moore, said: “It was probably too commanding (how far he won). I didn’t realise how far clear I was until I got to the last hurdle.

“He really enjoyed it around there today. His hurdling improved throughout the trip. He is a very athletic horse and has taken to it well.”

Useful Flat stayer Diocletian (100-30) gave Classic-winning handler Andrew Balding his first winner at the track when prevailing by 10 lengths in the Christmas Holidays Maiden Hurdle.

Winning jockey Page Fuller said: “That is definitely the most mature he has been over hurdles. He settled well and you could ride a race on him today.

“He had four nice horses in front of him at Newbury last time and I’d like to think off the back of that run he can go on to bigger and better things.”

Hambleton on a high after Glen Shiel’s breakthrough win

Members of the Hambleton Racing syndicate can finally take in what it means to be Group One winners, following Glen Shiel’s breakthrough success at the highest level at Ascot.

Having gone close in the Haydock Sprint Cup, Archie Watson’s charge was surprisingly overlooked in the betting under Hollie Doyle on Saturday.

However, Doyle was on the crest of a wave after winning the opening race on Champions Day on Trueshan – and she took the early initiative before holding off the late lunge of Kevin Ryan’s Brando by the narrowest of margins in the Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes.

“Saturday was a massive moment for us,” said Hambleton’s Simon Turner.

“Our blueprint has always been to buy in the more affordable area of the market with top trainers, and try and compete at the highest level possible.

“At £45,000, Glen would be one of our more expensive purchases – but he seemed ridiculous value at that level. He’s been a revelation since dropped back to sprinting, and has been superbly handled by Archie Watson, who is destined for the very top of his profession in my opinion.

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“Archie’s numbers are simply superb. Some have him pigeon-holed as two-year-old trainer, but there are countless examples of Archie achieving superb results with cast-offs from other yards too, many of them cheaply acquired.

“On a personal level, to win a race at the highest level with Hambleton Racing makes me very proud. We owe much of our success to Kevin Ryan, who has always looked after us exceptionally well and has provided us with any number of good horses along the way.

“I regard Kevin as a good friend, and it was no surprise he was the first on the phone on Saturday to congratulate me, despite the fact he’d just missed out with Brando. That’s the mark of the guy – he’s not just a just an outstanding trainer, but a true sportsman too.”

There are many different business models that syndicates adopt, with some offering shares for as little as £50, but Hambleton Racing hope theirs is one of the more robust on the market – with the loyalty shown by members as living proof.

Turner said: “Owning with us isn’t cheap – typically an owner will spend between £2-4,000 on their share and another £3,000 on the annual costs.

“We’d be among the more expensive syndicates but operate with some old-fashioned values. We certainly don’t penalise owners when their horses do well, so won’t be taking a penny of the £275,000 that Glen Shiel has won for his owners this year.

“We’re very proud of the fact many owners have been with us for over 10 years, which must mean we’re doing something right.

“I don’t think we’ll suddenly change our approach and start spending twice as much at the sales now. We’ll continue to seek out the best value we can at the sales. Thankfully, there seems to be a lot of value around at the moment.”

While most of the publicity around Glen Shiel’s win concerned Doyle, given it was her first Group One win, the same also applied to Watson – who was understandably delighted.

“I’m so proud of Glen Shiel, Hollie, and the whole team after the Champions Sprint,” said the Lambourn trainer.

“Hollie gave him a fantastic ride, and he was so tough. He hasn’t stopped improving all year, and to win a Group One is unbelievable.

“I am so pleased for Hambleton Racing, who are such huge supporters of ours, and for all his owners.

“Huge credit must go to Tom Biggs, who bought Glen Shiel for just £45,000 as a five-year-old horse in training last year.”

Archie Watson thrilled to send out first Group One winner

Plenty of plaudits will rightly be attributed to Hollie Doyle following her breakthrough Group One success aboard Glen Shiel at Ascot – and it should not be lost it was also a first victory at the highest level for trainer Archie Watson.

In the four years that he has held a licence, Watson has made giant strides, enjoying plenty of success both at home and abroad, and since teaming up with Doyle, who turned 24 last weekend, he has now formed what is fast becoming a formidable partnership.

Seeing the pair notch doubles together at tracks like Wolverhampton and Lingfield has become a common sight, and the duo finally enjoyed glory on the biggest of stages thanks to the victory of the Hambleton Racing-owned gelding in the Qipco British Champions Sprint.

Watson said: “That is my first Group One winner and it is absolutely amazing. He is some horse and there aren’t many Group One horses that are picked up for £45,000 at a horses in training sale. He has just improved throughout the year.

“I was delighted to see Hollie get her first Group One winner as she is such a hard-working rider. I’m so pleased that I was able to give her that breakthrough Group One as we have had so many winners together. Her being on this winner means a lot to me and the yard.

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“I’ve been knocking on the door at Group One level with the likes of Soldier’s Call, Snowy Winter and Absolute Blast, who were all Group One-placed. For him to get his head in front is massive for the yard, as we’ve only been going just over four years.”

Making the decision to purchase Glen Shiel at the Goffs UK Spring Horses In Training/P2P Sale was a shrewd decision by Watson, but equally as important to helping the six-year-old realise his potential was reverting him back to sprinting this campaign.

Watson said: “We always intended to drop him down in trip, as when we first got him we raced him over a mile and a quarter. Since he has dropped to six furlongs he has just improved.

“He has been so consistent and he hasn’t been out of the first two over six furlongs. He has gone from winning off big weights in handicaps into conditions races and now into stakes races.

“He has only run in four Group races and he has improved in all of them, having learnt how to race over the trip.”

Though now able to celebrate the victory Watson, who watched the race away from the track, admits he was on edge awaiting the outcome of the result.

He said: “Waiting on the photo-finish was not good for me, but I thought he just held on. As it was literally a bob of the heads, you can never be confident in a situation like that.

“While I’m delighted to give Hollie her first Group One, I’m also delighted for his owners Hambleton Racing as they have been big supporters of mine.

“A lot of credit needs to go to Tom Biggs, who spotted him at the sale with me – he buys all these horses and puts me in the privileged position to train them.”

Having kept Glen Shiel busy since the start of the year, Watson intends to give his new stable star a well-deserved break before taking aim at all the major sprint races over six furlongs next year.

He said: “Everything has gone fantastic today and he will have another holiday now. I think straight tracks really play to his strengths, so he won’t be going to the Breeders’ Cup or Hong Kong. We will look at all those six-furlong races in Europe for him.

“I hope there are still more big wins in him, there will not be too much difference in him from being a six-year-old to a seven-year-old. He has been in such good form and it has been great to strike while the iron has been hot.

“Hopefully there is still more to come and he can be very competitive in these sorts of races next season.”

Glen Shiel gives Hollie Doyle landmark first career Group One victory

Hollie Doyle landed her first Group One success when snatching the verdict on Glen Shiel in the Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot.

Just 35 minutes after Doyle had become the first female rider to win on British Champions Day in the opening Long Distance Cup on Trueshan, the 24-year-old broke yet more new ground in a record-breaking year.

Doyle and connections of the Archie Watson-trained six-year-old had to wait a few anxious moments for the result of the photo-finish before it was confirmed Glen Shiel (16-1) had beaten the veteran Brando by a nose.

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Glen Shiel was always in the front rank after being smartly out of the stalls and was joined three furlongs out by Oxted. The July Cup winner took the lead, but had nothing more to give in the final half-furlong.

Glen Shiel kept on giving back in front – and just held the very late challenge of 80-1 outsider Brando. One Master was half a length away in third place.

Doyle said: “I’m in a state of shock right now. I didn’t think I’d won, so to have had the result we have was incredible. We had a good old battle with Oxted from the three-pole and I thought that I would be doing well to hold on like I did, but he is such a game horse.

“He is incredible. He has got quicker with age. When we first got him, he was running over 10 furlongs in France and didn’t show a whole lot of speed, but the further we dropped him back, the quicker he has got.”

She added: “It’s not about me it’s about Archie Watson, he has campaigned this horse unbelievably. No one else would have won a Group One with this horse.

“It is a dream come true, a massive dream come true, especially on this horse. Everyone in the yard adores him. My aim at the start of the year was to ride a Group winner and I always said a Group One one day, but I didn’t think it would come this year.

“I don’t get too carried away, but I’m a bit delusional as to what is going on at the moment as it has all been a bit of a whirlwind. It has been a great few years.

“It feels really unusual as for someone like me it doesn’t normally happen, but it has done today.”

Glen Shiel hangs on from Brando
Glen Shiel hangs on from Brando (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

The Kevin Ryan-trained Brando was ridden by Tom Eaves, who said: “He has run a stormer. You are always gutted finishing second, but he has run a great race. It was a bob of the heads. I’m delighted, but gutted at the same time.

“He has been running OK. He ran well at York last Saturday and that probably put him right. York has never been his sort of track. He likes it here on this big, stiff track. It is a great training performance.”

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

2.45 Goodwood : Sardinia Sunset @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Took keen hold, tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, faded inside final furlong) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.10 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Electric Ladyland @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3 Flat handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good ground worth £9,452 to the winner...

Why?...

Another crack at landing a Glorious Goodwood winner, but not quite at the same level as yesterday's contest, but every race has a winner so let's see what the racecard tells us at first glance......

So, briefly from above, a yard in form with a reasonable enough record at this track from a small number of runners and the yard also does well in sprints and also with LTO winners.

The horse looks like one of the speedier ones, according to the SR figures and whilst Hollie Doyle has no form icons by her name on the card, there's no doubting her talent and she tends to ride the Archie Watson horses well as I'll hope to highlight shortly.

But first, the horse herself, a 3 yr old filly, who has three wins and three places from her last seven starts and a good overall return of 5 wins from 14 so far, including of relevance today...

  • 5/12 at 5f, 5/8 at odds below 9/1 and 4/6 at Class 3-5 (but also has won at C2)
  • 2/5 in cheekpieces, 2/2 under Hollie Doyle's steering and 1/2 here at Goodwood
  • 1/2 on good ground and 1/2 over course and distance (also at Class 3)

And now, I'll finish off with a quick look at the afore-mentioned record of trainer & jockey together. In the context of this race, I'd tend to focus on the Watson / Doyle combination in Class 3-4 handicaps with runners sent off at 8/1 and shorter and doing so gives me 18 winners from 49 (36.7% SR) for 36pts profit at an ROI on 73.4%, including at play today...

  • 15/37 (40.5%) for 36.83pts (+99.6%) during the 6 months from May to October
  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 25.41pts (+121%) at 21-45 days since last run
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 22.36pts (+131.5%) during May-Oct at 21-45dslr (*this looks like an MO)
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 15.64pts (+9.7%) from female runners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 8.15pts (+58.2%) from LTO winners (better than the yard's overall LTO winners) 
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.43pts (+62.9%) at Class 3
  • and 1/1 here at Goodwood from this horse's 6/1 win three starts ago

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Electric Ladyland @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst Bet365 were a standout 11/2 BOG!) at 6.20am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 11th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

6.05 Bath : Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Held up towards rear, pushed along over 1f out, stayed on final furlong, nearest finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Canagat @ 5/2 BOG

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...in a 9-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m on Tapeta worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

According to the racecard, this 3 yr old colt takes a drop in class from his last run 17 days ago and is of immediate interest, because...

He's drawn is stall 4 today and a quick glance at the pace/draw heat map shows...

I don't think any of the above needs explaining (but please do ask if something is unclear, I don't bite), whilst the horse himself has already proved to like an artificial surface...

He has finished 311 on the A/W so far, including one here at Newcastle (also Class 4 with Hollie Doyle on board, but over 7f two starts ago).

And the only thing I'm going to add to all of the evidence above is that of the Trainer/Jockey record of 6 wins from 13 here at Newcastle over the last year, seven of those races were handicaps over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs and the results are astonishing at 1111211 including Canagat winning here on the 2nd June, the same day as Glen Shiel was the only loser in that sequence, although he has won here at Newcastle since (Class 2 under Hollie Doyle!)...

...all of which steered me towards...a 1pt win bet on Canagat @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Saturday (although a couple of firms were at 11/4), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th March 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

1.55 Lingfield : Subliminal @ 13/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Close up, pushed along and headway 2f out, ridden to chase winner when edged left inside final furlong, no extra and lost two places close home

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Premier D'Troice @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m84yds on good ground worth £3,769 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding comes here on a hat-trick after winning over 2m4f at Punchestown on his last run for Sean Thomas Doyle, ahead of scoring in a Class 4, 3 mile contest on his yard debut for Archie Watson almost 4 weeks ago at Fakenham under today's jockey Brodie Hampson.

This horse now has 2 wins and a place from 3 efforts in handicap hurdle races, including a win and a place at 3 miles.

His trainer, Archie Watson, is probably best known for his exploits on level ground, but his small string of hurdlers are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 16.56pts (+150.6% ROI) over trips of 2m4f to 3m1f, all of which were males ridden by Brodie Hampson and also include of note here...

  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 18.56pts (+206.3%) with 6 yr olds
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 19.56pts (+244.5%) finished in the first three home LTO
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 21.56pts (+359.3%) at 70-170 miles from home
  • 4/10 (40%) for 15.33pts (+153.3%) in handicaps
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 6.22pts (+88.9%) at Evens to 4/1
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 17.59pts (+293.2%) at Class 4
  • 3/5 (60%) for 17.7pts (+354%) during February to April
  • 3/5 (60%) for 3.94pts (+78.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 11.08pts (+221.6%) with LTO winners...

...whilst 6 yr olds travelling 70-170 miles to run in Class 4 handicaps after a top 3 finish LTO are 3 from 3, including 2 LTO winners, 2 at Evs to 4/1 and 2 in Feb-April...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Premier D'Troice @ 11/4 BOG as was available from BetVictor, Betway, SkyBet & Marathon* at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Doncaster

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Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!