Two-Year-Old Runners on 2nd Start: Part 1

Having delved into two-year-old (2yo) debut data in my two previous articles (part 1 here and part 2 here), it is time to move on to 2yos on their second starts, writes Dave Renham. I will split the research up once more into two distinct pieces: this first one will look at a variety factors such as LTO (last time out) performance, LTO course, market factors, etc. The second will be drilling into numerous trainer based angles.

Once more I have researched UK flat racing results for six full years, from 2017 to 2022, and this includes both turf races as well as all-weather. I have calculated profit and loss to Betfair SP (BSP) with commission of 5% taken into account.

Firstly let me compare the win strike rates and the win and placed (each way) strike rates for 2yo debutants versus 2yo second starters:

 

 

As you can see, having that racecourse experience makes a significant difference, both in term of winning chances and placed ones too.

These strike rates are similar year in, year out for second time starting 2yos – the graph below shows this clearly with two virtually straight lines:

 

 

Of course the betting market takes these percentages into account when setting the prices so, although second time out juveniles win more than debutants do, it does not mean they are necessarily more profitable. Let us then examine the performance of 2yo second starters by price.

 

Market Factors

The prices shown in the table below are Industry SPs just because they fit to a more uniform price pattern – profits / losses / returns, however, are presented to BSP as previously started:

 

 

From these figures we can see that the shorter priced runners have been quite poor value, specifically those priced 9/4 or shorter. The biggest profits have come from the 25/1 or bigger runners but take out one winner at a BSP of 560.0 and suddenly we see a 100 point deficit. Add into the mix that there were three more winners priced between 300.0 and 500.0 (396.7, 312.79 & 485.27), as well as a miserly 1% strike rate, and we can see that backing such runners is not a sensible option, even if you are patient enough to wait on average for that one win in 91.

 

LTO position (finishing position on debut)

This was not an option to check with debutants (for obvious reasons), but for second starters it is an area we can dive into.

 

 

The first thing to note is that horses that came second on debut actually have a better strike rate than those who won on debut. This is not usually the case – looking at ALL races over the past six seasons (any age group / race type), the strike rate for all LTO winners is slightly higher than for all LTO runners up. Here there is a 7% differential, which may be down to the weight penalty most winners are obliged to carry next time. Having said that, the returns are virtually identical – within one hundredth of a pence per every £1 staked.

The value seems to have been with those horses that finished 5^th or worse. Again, though, we need to be aware that those four huge priced winners mentioned earlier all came from runners who finished 5^th or worse.

 

LTO course (course they made their debut)

Focusing on the course where a 2yo made its debut. what difference does this make? I have included all LTO courses that have had at least 80 qualifiers. That means just two courses miss out: Epsom and Wetherby. Courses are initially listed alphabetically and I have split Newmarket into results for both the Rowley course and the July one:

 

 

As we can see there is quite a mixed bag in terms of strike rates, returns and A/E indices. In general, I think that the strike rates and A/E indices are more significant than profit/loss, as some course data will have been skewed by very big priced winners. Also I would urge punters to be equally aware of the poorer performing LTO courses. Juveniles which had debut runs at Bath, Beverley, Brighton and Chester look horses to avoid on second starts in general terms; not only do they have poor strike rates, their A/E indices are under 0.70.

There is a significant difference however, when we compare LTO turf courses with LTO AW courses:

 

 

That better than 3% differential in strike rates with 2yo debutants coming from turf courses last time out equates to a 32% relative improvement over those returning after a debut on the all-weather. Likewise, the profit and loss figures to BSP (£1 level stakes) are similarly different:

 

 

All in all, one would prefer to be backing a 2yo on second career run that raced on the turf on its debut, rather than the sand.

If we break the data down further, by looking at horses that started in the top three of the betting on their second start, the LTO course surface made a difference there as well. These more fancied runners scored 26.2% of the time if their debut run was on turf, compared to 23.2% if their debut run was on the all weather.

A debut run at Newmarket has often been considered a positive and we can see the table shows debuts at both the Rowley and July courses have produced high second time out strike rates and good returns to boot. In addition the win percentage / strike rate has been consistently good year on year as the graph shows:

 

 

Three of the six years would have produced a blind profit to BSP, and at this juncture I would like to share more specific data looking at the horses that finished 2^nd or 3^rd at Newmarket on debut. These runners have secured a one in three win ratio (SR 33.5%) and a small level stakes profit of £18.09 (ROI +7.7%) on their next starts. However, the most remarkable thing is that despite this modest profit, five of the six years have been winning ones:

 

 

It is clear that any horse which finished 2^nd or 3rd on debut at Newmarket is worth looking at in some detail on their next outing. In fact all horses that debuted at Newmarket should be looked at as possible betting opportunities especially if other factors offer positive vibes.

 

Sires

Onto sires next, and here is a table of all sires with at least 100 offspring to have had two (or more) runs as two-year-olds. I have ordered them by strike rate:

 

 

There is quite a difference when comparing the likes of Dubawi at the top, with his better than one win in four ratio, and Heeraat at the bottom, whose record is roughly one win in every 50!

Now, in the previous article I looked at sire stats for 2yo debutants so it makes sense to compare the individual sires and their debut and second run stats; here, I will be comparing the 2yo strike rate and the A/E indices.

In the final column I have divided the second run win percentage / SR% by the debut one to give us a type of Impact Value. It is not a ‘true’ IV and I call it a Comparison Strike Rate (CSR). I have used this type of calculation before in some other Geegeez articles. The higher this figure the more improvement the runners show on their second run compared to their debut.

Horses highlighted in green have seen their strike rates at least double; those in red have seen their strike rates fall. A CSR figure to bear in mind is 1.52. This is the average CSR figure when looking at the strike rate comparison for ALL sires. The table is ordered by CSR.

 

In terms of A/E indices, the same trick of dividing one number by the other is an option to compare the two values. However, I think it is simply easier to work out the difference between the two. Here is a list of any sire whose A/E index is at least 0.3 points better for second starters compared to debutants:

 

 

Twilight Son and Poets Voice have both proved to be far better value with their 2yo runners on second start compared to debut. All six in the table see significant differences. This is something we need to take into account if looking at runners sired by these six.

Reversing the idea now, here are the sires whose A/E index is at least 0.3 points better for their debutants compared to their second starters:

 

 

All five of these sires have been far better value with their 2yo debutants, and they essentially buck the general sire trend. Any 2yo on second start sired by one of these might warrant a red flag against it.

As a stats man, my mantra is the more information the better. It is true that sometimes ‘more’ can confuse the issue, but in the case of sires, comparing, analysing and having a better understanding of first and second career run data will improve our chances of finding value if backing 2yos on a regular basis.

 

Damsires

As per the first 2yo debutant article, I want to share some damsire data, too. Here are the top 15 performing damsires with 2yo second starters from a strike rate perspective (100 runs / horses minimum).

 

 

Of these 15, five secured a BSP profit (Dalakhani, Dansili, Dark Angel, Oasis Dream and Shamardal); four had A/E indices of 1.00 or higher (Dalakhani, Dubawi, Dutch Art and Bahamian Bounty).

Of all the damsires mentioned I think three are worth keeping an eye out for this year and they are the top three in terms of strike rate – Dubawi, Dalakhani and Shamardal; their figures are solid across the board. For the record, backing all 2yo second starters that were priced 6/1 (Industry SP) or shorter from any of these three would have seen 88 wins from 245 runners (SR 35.9%) for a BSP profit of £45.65 (ROI +18.6%).

 

Jockeys

An area that I thought would be interesting to look at was whether it was better for the 2yo second starter to be ridden again by the same jockey who rode them on debut. My hypothesis was that if the same jockey rode the horse again it should be a slight plus, due to the fact that the jockey would have prior knowledge of that debut run and performance. Also I am assuming that a fair proportion of these 2yos have been ridden at home on the gallops by the same pilot. Let’s check out the findings then:

 

 

It is always heartening to see a theory produce the type of stats expected. As we can see, horses that are ridden by the same jockey for a second time in their career outperform those who have a different pilot. This is true for strike rate, returns and A/E indices.

What is also comforting to see is that the yearly strike rates for these same jockey bookings have been very consistent:

 

 

There are less than 1.3 percentage points difference between the ‘best’ year in terms of win percentage / strike rate and the ‘worst’. In my second article, I plan to break this data down further by looking at individual trainer results – I am hoping a few trainers will offer up some strong stats.

 

MAIN TAKEAWAYS

To close, here are the bullet points from the above.

1. 2yos win just over 12% of the time on second starts compared to just under 8% on debut

2. Second time starters priced 9/4 or shorter have proved relatively poor value

3. Horses that finished second on debut have an excellent strike rate of nearly 28% in their follow up run, but they still lost 11p for every £1 staked

4. A debut run at either Bath, Beverley, Brighton or Chester can be considered a negative

5. A debut run at Newmarket should often be considered a positive; 2yos racing at Newmarket who finished second or third on debut have a very solid set of figures on second runs

6. Sires Twilight Son, Poets Voice, Bated Breath, Acclamation, Fast Company and Zebedee see their progeny perform significantly better on second starts compared to debut

7. Dubawi, Dalakhani and Shamardal are three damsires that are worth keeping on the right side (as a general rule). This is especially true if priced 6/1 (Industry SP) or shorter

8. Second time starters ridden by the same jockey that rode them in their first run have a much better record than if the jockey has changed

 

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I hope this article has highlighted some useful stats for Geegeez readers. It will be trainer data that comes under the microscope in that follow up. Until then...

- DR

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• More on Price Movement from Opening Show
• A Study of Owners in UK Flat Racing, Part 2
• A Study of Owners in UK Flat Racing, Part 1
• Seeking Value with Female Flat Jockeys
• Early Odds to Opening Odds to Starting Price