Tag Archive for: Beverley racecourse

Racing Insights, 11th August 2021

Wednesday's feature of the day is the excellent Trainer Stats report, which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course since 2016, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

In addition to a daily free feature, we also offer selection of full free racecards each day and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.30 Salisbury
  • 3.50 Yarmouth
  • 5.05 Beverley
  • 5.35 Gowran Park
  • 7.45 Ffos Las

You can set your own search/qualification parameters for the Trainer Stats report, which will determine how many "possibles" you get each day. I like to be fairly stringent with my settings, meaning I don't always have many to consider, but my settings for 5 yr course handicappers for Wednesday have produced a couple for me to look at...

4.25 Yarmouth is an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over 7f on good to firm (good in places) ground worth £3,240, where Simon Crisford's 3yr old filly makes just her fifth appearance...

Sense of Humour was a winner here by a length over course and distance almost three weeks ago, wearing a hood and a first-time tongue tie (both are in situ again here) staying on well at the finish. The report of the race reads..."dwelt, held up in 4th, headway going nicely under 4f out, waiting for room over 2f out, gap opened and closed from well over 1f out, led well inside final furlong and on top close home..."

She's now up three pounds for that win on handicap debut but she could well have more to come having broken her duck. Her yard have a 24.2% strike rate with LTO winners (70/289), whilst her jockey is 50 from 221 (22.3% SR) here since the start of 2016, all of which is promising, as is the fact that she gets a 6lbs weight for age allowance here.

Instant Expert won't tell us too much about her after just four starts, but here are her numbers anyway...

Those are reasonable enough numbers to start a career with and they suggest she could well be in with a shout of making the frame. She's drawn in stall 6 today, which is a positive as prevous similar contests have favoured those racing from the middle (3 to 6) stalls...

And those races have also tended to suit those quick away with leaders winning far more often than any other running style...

and if we look at recent running styles of this field, we see that our filly has the second highest pace score...

Flibbertigibbert's 4 score LTO (ie led) is the only 4 on view from all eight runners' last four outings, so that one might well force the pace, but what we have with Sense of Humour is a prominent runner drawn in the middle of the stalls, which puts her in the 9.52% bracket below...

That's based on just two winners from 21 runners, but with 10 of them (47.6%) making the frame, this further enhances her chances of being involved in the final shake-up.


Our second runner, Crystal Guard, runs in the 5.05 Beverley, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+, maiden flat handicap over 1m4f on good ground worth £3,888. The ground is already softer in places and more showers are due, so keep an eye out for the going, as it might well change..

As you can see, 3lb claimer jockey Dylan Hogan has had a decent year for trainer Michael Bell, although he comes here without a win in his last 24 rides (he does have two at Chelmsford on Tuesday evening, so that might change!). We know the yard does well in handicaps here and he now brings this 3 yr old colt here for the first time in a bid to get off the mark at the seventh attempt. He wore a visor for the first time two starts ago to good effect as he was a half length runner-up over 1m2f at Brighton four weeks ago.

He stayed on well at the finish that day, suggesting a longer trip would suit, but he struggled in the last of 14 furlongs at Nottingham a week later. He's back down in trip to 1m4f here and that might well be the happy medium for him. He runs off a mark of 68 here, 2lbs higher than his last two efforts, but Dylan Hogan's claim more than negates that and we could well have a contender here.

This is a maiden handicap, so there's no winning form to display, meaning that I'll head straight to the place element of Instant Expert...

As I said, he has little experience behind him, but a place on the going, class and field size is promising. He's drawn five of six here and in similar contests, a high draw has been beneficial, with stall five being the pick...

In those races above, there haven't been enough mid-division runners to form a judgement on how they might perform, but we can tell you that of the other three running styles, the further forward you race, the better your chances...

...which at first glance, isn't great news at all for Crystal Guard who is a confirmed hold-up horse. High drawn hold-up horses have just one win and one place from eleven efforts in stark contrast to the three wins and two places from seven for high drawn leaders like Outback Boy, who is drawn widest of all and a definite front runner (the only one in the race), so followers of Crystal Guard will hope he gets towed along by the pace-setter.


Two horses both with good chances of making the frame in Class 5 handicaps and both available around the 3/1 mark, but I'll not be backing either here. I'd expect them both to be very involved and they should make the frame, but I fear they'll both find at least one, if not more, better than them.

At Yarmouth, Sense of Humour is likeliest to be undone by the likes of the 3/1 Dashing Dick, but pace angle Flibbertigibbert (11/4) might be afforded a soft lead that would be hard to claw back. Whilst at Beverley, I see a tight race but the 13/8 favourite Riches and Rubies should be the one to beat. Outback Boy will attempt to set the pace and should also feature.

So, no actual bets for me, but if you wanted to back both featured horses for a place, I won't try to dissuade you.

Racing Insights, 11th May 2021

Tuesday's 'feature of the day' is the Shortlist report which highlights runners racing in conditions they have performed well under in previous efforts and our free 'races of the day' are...

  • 3.00 Roscommon
  • 3.15 Beverley
  • 4.45 Beverley
  • 6.00 Ayr
  • 7.45 Killarney
  • 8.35 Ayr

Sadly, the Shortlist report is quite sparse for Tuesday, so I'll look at one of the free races. I'm expecting the ground to be soft at Beverley tomorrow come race time and soft ground or worse can be a great leveller. The first of our two Beverley races looks the better one, even if there's only 7 set to run in the 3.15 Beverley, which is a Class 4 Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m½f. The going is currently Good to Soft, Soft in places, but more rain is expected. The seven are competing for £4,449 and here's how they line up...

You can see the 1-2-3 from our Speed ratings just above, but none of the three come here on the back of a win last time out, but Poet's Dawn, Zihaam and Midnite Bride were all successful in their latest runs, the latter has now won three on the bounce, whilst Mythical Madness is the only one without a win in the last six.

Poet's Dawn is up 3lbs for winning here over course and distance almost three weeks ago and 5lb claimer Ella McCain retains the ride. That last win was on good to firm ground, but this versatile 6 yr old is 3 from 12 in handicaps on Good to Soft / Soft ground and has made the frame in half of his 14 previous runs here at Beverley, winning three times including 2 wins and 2 places in handicaps over course and distance.

Song of the Isles is 4 from 13 in Flat handicaps and has won both soft ground contests to date and although he won three races on the bounce in October/November, he ended last season by finishing 7th of 8 and on his reappearance this year was last home of 18 at Doncaster, beaten by 24 lengths. He probably wants it softer than this and a step up in trip won't help.

Humbert hasn't won any of his last sixteen races and you have to go back to June 2018 since he scored at Newcastle on the A/W over a mile. All four of his career wins have been on the A/W and his Flat record stands at just three placed finishes from 13 races and I don't see that improving here.

Mythical Madness finished 121 in consecutive Class 4 handicaps over a mile in June 2020 before taking seven months rest. He was last home of seven in back to back Wolverhampton handicaps over 1m1½f in Jan/Feb of this year and his form really hasn't improved much since. The results show he was a runner-up last time out, but closer analysis shows he was beaten by 5.5 lengths in a Class 5 claimer after being sent off as a 4/7 fav! Probably best avoided here.

Zihaam has won two of his last five and is up 4lbs for winning here over course and distance last time out 8 days ago. He was held up for the run and finished strongly, winning by 2.5 lengths and looking like he'd something to spare. That took his record here to 6 wins and 2 places from 16 visits, but I think he'd want the ground to be a little quicker today off a career-high mark.

Strongbowe was a winner five races back when landing a Roscommon 7f maiden as a 5/6 fav on good to firm ground in only his second start and that came after a 402 day absence. Sadly he didn't carry that form into handicap company where he was 8th, 6th and then 18th of 20 before leaving Ireland and moving to Tim Easterby's yard for whom he debuted a month ago after 224 days off track. He was 6th of 13 that day, beaten by 8.5 lengths, weakening in the closing stages and as he now steps up in trip, others make much more appeal.

Midnite Bride is the only filly in the race and carries bottom weight before jockey claims are considered. She'll be popular with the punters after winning each of her last three starts in September and October 2020 and then again 15 days ago coming off a break of 192 days. What I should point out, however, is that all three wins were over 7f and before today, she has never gone beyond that distance. Two of the wins were at Class 6 and then Class 5 last time out, so she's up in class too and races off a career high mark, 3 lbs higher than LTO. That said, she is progressive and in great shape.

Based on the above, it seem that many, if not all of them have questions to answer about their form and suitability for the task ahead. That suitability is easily demonstrated by our unique Instant Expert overview...

The more extreme the going gets, the bigger the effect it has on races and we've not many above with winning records on the expected going and I think it's worth looking at their place records on the ground too...

And the place stats would appear to back up the win stats regarding the actual underfoot conditions. With regards to Class, Mythical Madness is a proven Class 4 performer, whilst Zihaam is clearly the Beverley specialist (16 of his 37 Flat handicap runs have been here and his record is excellent). Four of the field have won at this trip, whilst the in-form Midnite Bride is making her class/course/distance bows.

In 6-8 runner contests here over course and distance, stalls 4 to 7 have been the best places to run from...

...with stall six performing exceptionally well. This apparent draw bias is good news for the likes of Poet's Dawn who featured well on Instant Expert. Humbert looks to have bagged that sixth stall but whether hat will help him is unclear. It depends on his he breaks from there over a course and distance that has favoured horses up with the pace in the past...

And so the best place to be here is upfront with the leaders or as close as you can be and we've got a few who like to get on with it here...

And now we know where the pace/draw biases would appear to be, we can then produce the Geegeez Pace/Draw heatmap which looks like this...

...and probably didn't surprise any of you at all! What we can then do is overlay those running styles of our seven hopefuls onto the heatmap and when we arrange them into draw order for a bird's eye view of how they might break out, a picture begins to form...

We've learned that stalls 4 to 7 would be the place to be and that leading or racing prominently is a bonus. The pace in the race looks like coming from stalls 3, 4 and 6 in the shape of Song Of the Isles, Poet's Dawn and Humbert.


In the initial individual analysis of all the runners, aside from a 3lb rise in weight Poet's Dawn was the only one whose form/past didn't raise more questions than answers. Instant Expert shone a light on Poet's Dawn, Song of The Isles and Midnite Bride on softer ground. Zihaam was the track specialist and Mythical Madness has the best Class 4 record.

Poet's Dawn, Zihaam, Humbert and Mythical Madness would appear to have the best of the draw, whilst from a pace perspective we were drawn to Song Of the Isles, Poet's Dawn and Humbert. All of which, by default, led to Humbert being best placed on pace/draw combined with Song of The Isles and Poet's Dawn next best.

One name crops up all the rime here and that's Poet's Dawn, so almost by having the least unanswered queries, he's my pick here and is currently offered at 7/2 by Bet365.

Midnite Bride is the 9/4 or 5/2 favourite here and I think that's short for a horse up in weight, class and trip, so I'm leaving her alone. If I was to take an alternate to my pick, you can get 8/1 about Song of the Isles returning to form. He's certainly good enough, but does need to up his game : more rain would help!

Racing Insights, 13th April 2021

Mixed emotions from Tuesday's race, I suppose. Rhythmic Intent didn't run and my pick for the race Hortzadar never really got into it from too far off the pace. My third and fourth rated horses, which became #2 and #3 after the non-runner, fared me much better giving me E/W returns at 14/1 and 16/1, so enough back for a socially distanced pint or two outside later 😉

Wednesday's 'feature of the day' is the Trainer Statistics report and our free races are...

  • 2.00 Leopardstown
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 3.25 Beverley
  • 4.00 Beverley
  • 4.40 Kempton

The 3.00 Newmarket aka the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes is the best of that handful of races, but with a small field and an odds on favourite, we'll settle for second best on this occasion and head for the 4.00 Beverley, , a 9-runner, Class 3 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over five furlongs on Good to Firm ground that will be good in places and watering is taking place to keep it from getting any quicker. Top prize here is £6,185 for one of these...

This looks like another tight contest, the type we love to try and crack, of course. All bar two have a win in their last five outings, we've three dropping down a class, one moving up a class and one upped two classes. All nine have won at the trip, we've three course and distance winners, including a 2021 Geegeez Flat Profiles horse.

Five have raced in the last three weeks, whilst the other four are returning from breaks of 180 to 214 days and the spread on the Geegeez ratings is tight, ranging from 90 down to just 73. When bottom rated is higher than 80% of top rating, you know it's expected to be tight, but hopefully we can find the winner, starting with...

Jawwaal, who hasn't raced for 214 days, but goes best fresh, as shown by his success in back to back 5f sprints last summer when coming back from 259 days off track, including landing a valuable big-field contest at Ascot in July. He was then mid-division in two more 21-runner handicaps before calling it a day for 2020. If ready first up again, will be involved off 1lb lower than LTO.

Muscika was a 33/1 winner at York back on October and although he was beaten by four lengths on his subsequent step up to Class 2, he wasn't disgraced. He was beaten by a similar margin 17 days ago on his seasonal reappearance but is expected to go better with that run under his belt, as he did last season.

Queens Order struggled higher than Class 3 last term, but ended the season with two good runs below this level, losing and then winning by narrow margins. Now 6lbs higher than his LTO win, which was a career-best effort, this looks tough up in class.

King of Stars was 0 from 9 before the switch tot he Appleby yard for whom he is now 3 from 7, including landing a C4 5f handicap at Bath last week. This is clearly tougher and he carries a penalty for that win last week but is definitely in form and looks like an improver.

Ginger Jam is the Geegeez 2021 profile horse in the field. His career record of 7 from 19, includes 5 from 5 over course and distance as highlighted by subscriber Nigel aka N17, which would make him of serious interest, but Nigel does say that he's to be backed at Classes 4 to 6, as that's where he has run those five races at. He's actually 1 from 4 at Class 4 overall, by virtue of a C&D win here two starts ago off a mark of 80. He goes off 83 here and is 0/2 higher than Class 4 and I expect a first Beverley defeat for him.

Victory Angel won a Class 3 at Musselburgh off 79 five starts ago but has struggled since. He's coming back down in the weights and should, therefore, be more competitive here. He does go well when turned back out quite quickly by is 2/22 off a mark over 80.

Music Society won the Ayr Bronze Cup almost 19 months ago as the culmination of a run of form that saw him win three time and finish second twice inside six outings. His mark went from 81 to 86 after that Ayr win and he hasn't managed to score again in nine efforts since. He was a runner-up at Haydock off a mark a pound higher than today and he's now 2lbs lower than that Ayr win, so is well weighted here. My main concern with him is the 180 day absence as he has failed to make the frame in four runs after four months or more off track.

Saluti won here at Beverley over course and distance last August but is now somewhere 5lbs lower. This, however, is two grades higher and he did only get home by a nose in a race where the form hasn't really panned out (field is 1/34 since). He has had a couple of C4 sharpeners on the A/W already this season, but has been well held in both and I'd be looking elsewhere today.

Nibras Again is a solid consistent performer with a 40% place record after nearly 50 runs, but he doesn't win often enough, as typified by his recent form of 33133. Only the first of those was on turf and his last win on grass was here over C&D in July. He won a Class 5 handicap by a nose off 66 that day and a mark of 75 here means he's have to do much better to be involved.

So, we know that Ginger Jam is an excellent 5 from 5 over C&D, but we've since discovered that he hasn't won at this grade of racing before meaning he's not as well suited as we thought he might be. This will no doubt be apparent on Instant Expert, which will show us who really is best suited...

In fairness, Ginger Jam still looks fine above, but the class thing is a concern. Several of these will handle the ground well enough, Muscika has three wins at this level, Ginger Jam is undoubtedly the horses for courses runner and has a good record at the trip, as does Nibras Again with others also having lots of green. Nibras Again, however, is 9lbs higher than his last win but a couple do race off marks lower than their last successes.

The draw stats are as follows for similar past races...

...and although stall 3 is low and stall 4 is high, there's actually no real discernible draw bias here, as shown by segmenting the field into thirds...

It's the blue line we use here...

So no bias, although from a profit perspective, the middle stalls are where the money has been made! As for race pace, it's probably what you'd expect over 5f on quick ground ie get out quick and stay in front...

And when we combine pace and draw...

...it still says you want to be leading, but the middle stalls have become less attractive, so now let's add our horses' previous running styles to that heat map to see how we think it might unfold...

...and the suggestion is that King of Stars will attempt to make all from the widest berth. He has made the made three times and raced prominently once in his last four and hasn't finished out of the first four home, so it's a clear tactic that has served him well.


The two I like most here would be Jawwaal and King of Stars. The former goes well first up and although conceding weight all round, is still a pound lower than LTO and drops in class, whilst the latter is in great form since moving yards and is a front-running improver.

I'm really struggling to split the pair, but I'm siding with King of Stars over Jawwaal and both are currently priced at 5/1 in a contest so tight that the bookies have five horses at 5/1 or 11/2. As for a third horse, I think there could be a bit of an upset with the longest priced horses possibly squeezing in. I have a marginal preference for the 12/1 Muscika over the 14/1 Music Society, but neither would be a bad E/W bet.

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2020

Monday's pick was...

1.45 Warwick : Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Prominent, disputed lead after 3rd, pushed along before 3 out, lost position well before next, weakened after last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 


Much of my "work" has already been done for me on the racecard, but I'll add a little meat to the bones of the following too...

Mindful of not trying to teach you how to suck eggs (there are videos out there for that!), I'll quickly whizz through the above that tells us we've a consistent/in-form runner from an in-form yard who do well when today's jockey is on board and have also been very adept at getting winners to "double up".

So, what can I add?

Well, the recent 121 form for this 5 yr old gelding has all come in the last six weeks since the first-time adoption of cheekpieces and they are retained today (cp4 on the card). One of those wins was on good to firm ground, so the surface shouldn't be an issue. He has no run at today's trip, but is 5 from 21 at 7f and has won over a mile in the past, he's 5 from 13 in fields of 8-10 runners and has one win and one place with Paul Mulrennan on his back.

So that's the horse's suitability assessed, next to the trainer form. The card clearly tells us that David Brown's horses are 3 from 9 in the last fortnight and all I'm going to add to that is to say that in handicaps they are 3 from 7.

The trainer jockey 1-year record is good at 8 from 30 and with this race in mind, it's handy (IMO) to know that those 30 runs include...

  • 8 from 24 from males
  • 7 from 19 at odds of evens to 15/2
  • 7 from 19 in fields of 10 runners or fewer
  • 5 from 19 in handicaps
  • 5 from 18 after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 5 from 14 made the frame LTO
  • 4 from 6 from 5 yr olds
  • and 2 from 6 from LTO winners...

...and we know (via the racecard) the yard has done well over the last couple of years with LTO winners with 7 of 21 going on to win again. This isn't just a recent thing, as closer inspection of trainer David Brown's runners show that over the last five (inc this one) Flat seasons, his Class 3-6 handicappers who won last time out are 9 from 28 (32.1% SR) for profits of 33.9pts (+121% ROI) at Industry SP backed blindly, including 5 winners from the last 9.

Imposing an Evens to 7/1 odds range on those runners shows five winners from the last six...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG as was available at 8.20am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard


Stat of the Day, 18th August 2020

Monday's pick was...

2.20 Catterick : Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/1 (Led, stayed towards inside with one other in in home straight, ridden and pressed over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, weakened inside final furlong) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Saluti @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £4,690 to the winner...


Well, we can take quite a bit of inspiration from the racecard...

Fifth last time out doesn't tell the whole story, drawn on the wrong side of 17 stalls in a Class 2 contest over 6f at Goodwood, he was only beaten by 2.5 lengths and beat all bar one of the nine drawn higher than stall 8 (the 3/1 fav beat him by a short head).

Prior to that, this 6 yr old gelding won a Class 3 handicap over 5f at not too distant Pontefract, so I'd expect the drop to Class 4 to suit him well here.

As you can see above, the trainer does well enough here at Beverley and the trainer/jockey combo has been amongst the winners of late, albeit from a small number of runners.

A quick, deeper look at trainer Paul Midgley's record here at Beverley shows that since the start of 2017, his handicappers sent off at 6/1 or shorter here are 8 from 24 (33.3% SR) for 14.1pts (+58.7% ROI), all incidentally over this 5f track and trip and including...

  • 8/20 (40%) for 18.1pts (+90.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 25.1pts (+193%) in fields of 4-10 runners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 10.65pts (+152.2%) in August
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 2.64pts (+52.8%) with jockey Graham Lee...

...whilst in 4-10 runner contests in August within 25 days of their last run, they are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 13.65pts (+341.3% ROI), including 2/2 for 5.64pts (+282%) for today's jockey...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Saluti @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.10am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th August 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.40 Wolverhampton : Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Restless in stalls, chased leaders, pushed along before halfway, ridden 2f out, weakened soon after) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm worth £4,690 to the winner... 


Well, when I think racing is poor (and it is today), I try to look a bit further down the market for something that should represent some value and give us a run for our money and I expect both to happen here with an experienced runner whose best runs have come on the Flat where he has won six of fifty-four at a reasonable if not earth-shattering 11.11% SR, but it's how he has got those six wins that is of interest today, as he is...

  • 6/40 (15%) for 4pts (+10%) over 7½f to 8½f
  • 6/25 (24%) for 17pts (+68%) off a mark (OR) of 75-86
  • 5/31 (16.1%) for 3.42pts (+11%) at 4-25 dslr
  • 5/26 (19.2%) for 11.55pts (+44.4%) going right handed
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 20.17pts (+106.2%) at Class 4
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 18.53pts (+142.6%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.87pts (+89.8%) here at Beverley
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.87pts (+89.8%) here at Beverley over 7½f to 8½f
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.41pts (+73.5%) over this course and distance.

Things didn't go his way LTO at York over a mile at Class 3, but he now takes a drop in both class and trip to run here, where he was a runner-up two starts ago at this class, course, distance and OR mark of 86. He was only beaten by half a length on that occasion and his cause today should be helped by the booking of 7lb claimer Tyler Heard in the saddle.

Taking 7lbs off is only really useful, if the jockey him/herself brings something to the table and Tyler appears to have something about him judged off his start to life in the saddle, where he is currently 5 from 32 (15.6% SR) for 26.12pts (+81.6% ROI) profit with his 7lb claim, including...

  • 4/18 (22.2%) for 34.09pts (+189.4%) on the Flat
  • 4/16 (25%) for 36.09pts (+225.6%) in the last 28 days
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 36.25pts (+329.6%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 37.25pts (+372.5%) over the last four weeks on good to firm flat ground.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.05am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

5.35 Pontefract : Squelch @ 7/2 BOG non-runner 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Global Exceed @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6 Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...


We're guided by the racecard today, as is often the case...

...an in-form trainer and jockey who both do well at this track and bring a horse top-rated on the speed ratings to run today.

The 14, 30, C1 and C5 are the base of our bet today, so let's take a closer look...

Over the last 30 days, trainer Karen Tutty's runners are 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 44.29pts (+402.6% ROI) with jockey Gemma's record over the same period standing at 3 from 10 (30%) for 45.29pts (+452.9%), all for trainer Karen.

Over the last fortnight, they are 2 from 6 (33.3% SR) for 11.24pts (+187.3% ROI).

More longer-term ie since 2015, Trainer Karen has had 16 winners from 92 (17.4% SR) for 55.16pts (+60% ROI) here at Beverley, which are excellent figures and contain the following baker's dozen snippets of relevance today...

    • 16/81 (19.8%) for 66.16pts (+81.7%) over trips of 7.5f and beyond
    • 16/70 (22.9%) for 77.16pts (+110.2%) with a jockey claiming 3 or 5 lbs
    • 15/73 (20.6%) for 69.01pts (+94.5%) with male runners
    • 13/80 (16.3%) for 50.19pts (+62.7%) in handicaps
    • 13/70 (18.6%) for 58.03pts (+82.9%) with runners unplaced last time out
    • 13/63 (20.6%) for 70.64pts (+112.1%) in 9-13 runner contests
    • 13/66 (19.7%) for 69.05pts (+104.6%) with horses rested for less than 3 weeks
    • 12/69 (17.4%) for 39.5pts (+57.3%) for Gemma Tutty
    • 12/49 (24.5%) for 58.81pts (+120%) on Good to Firm
    • 11/53 (20.75%) for 49.68pts (+93.7%) in 3yo+ races
    • 11/27 (40.7%) for 37.34pts (+138.3%) at odds ranging from 2/1 to 7/1
    • 8/33 (24.2%) for 22.41pts (+67.9%) in July
    • and 7/43 (16.3%) for 12.62pts (+29.4%) at class 6.

And there are more angles I could quote, but neither of us have all day to type/read them! However if you wanted to combine some of the above...

...then males with less than 3 weeks rest after an unplaced run LTO sent back out to be ridden by a 3/5lb claimer in a 9-13 runner handicap over 7.5 furlongs or further are 10 from 26 (38.5% SR) for 84.8pts (+326.7% ROI), from which Gemma has ridden 6 winners from 22 for 50.18pts profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Global Exceed @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Punting Angles: Beverley Racecourse

Now the 2019 Royal Ascot carnival is confined to history, my attention once again turns to finding some interesting insights on some of the UK’s less glitzy racecourses (which, in their defence, is all of them!), writes Jon Shenton.

Ascot may well be a full bodied, world-class (and expensive) Michelin star racing experience, but sometimes a hearty pub meal and a couple of pints hit the spot like nothing else.

So, clumsy metaphor out of the way, for this edition of punting angles, I’ll be focusing on the picturesque Yorkshire track of Beverley.

I enjoy this particular northern circuit. Fast and furious large field sprints spring to mind, as well as a large cast list of trainers, jockeys and owners which should lead to some reasonable angles and opportunities.

Let’s first take a look at the course map:


The diagram illustrates a couple of seemingly devilishly tight turns.  There is also a stiff uphill finish, the little red triangle pointing upwards indicating the highest point on the course is shortly after the finishing post, the lowest point being diagonally opposite. Thus, the final two and a half furlongs are a gradual climb, testing stamina as well as speed over shorter distances. Horses competing at the 5-furlong trip face an uphill task literally almost every step of the way.


Beverley trainers

Before analysing specifics regarding race distance profiles, a customary evaluation of trainer performance is in order. My starting filter is that all races from 2012 are included, but only where the runner SP is 20/1 or shorter.  50 runners are required to qualify in the table.


To be perfectly honest there doesn’t appear to be too much on here to get overly excited about.  The duo at the top of the table, plus potentially David O’Meara are probably the ones to focus on, if any.

Taking Richard Guest as an example, there is a definite point of interest from a punting perspective.  The Wetherby based operation has had only one solitary winner where there has been a SP of between 11/1 and 20/1 as the numbers below display:


The 10/1 or shorter row is a clear indication that market support for a Guest representative is a significant factor in assessing the likely performance of a stable runner.

Not much more to say on that, in truth.

However, whilst I was evaluating runners at the skinny end of the market, I noticed something that I think is worth bringing to your attention. Step forward, Mrs Ann Duffield. Hers is a yard I haven’t really taken a great deal of notice of previously from a data perspective: despite being a regular on the circuit I’ve never established anything robust in stats terms relating to runners from this stable.


The table above displays Duffield runners at the track, segmenting them between fancied and less well fancied runners. The delta between the two is noteworthy: just two winners from 127 runners at 6/1 or greater with a painful A/E of 0.25, IV 0.26 and a bankrupting ROI of -61%. Compare this to a strike rate of 35%, 54% ROI and IV of 3.05 for the shorter-priced entries and it’s looks like it’s potential party time when Duffield horses are towards the top of the market.

We can go slightly further:


This table shows the 11/2 or shorter SP data by odds rank, i.e. the position of the horse in the market, 1 being favourite. It may be an arbitrary point, but it certainly appears as though there is a differential between the horses residing in the top two of the market and ones further down the pecking order.


I’ve earmarked an alert in my portfolio to track any Duffield shorty that is at the top 2 of the market at Beverley and is less than 11/2 in price.


I’m learning that this game is all about constant evolution, by nature I generally search for horses at the more speculative end of the market. However, the more data I crunch the more I’m learning to appreciate these sorts of shorter priced opportunities. They offer balance and, in a world of risk and reward, such angles can keep the wheels turning when the more ambitious plays are stuck in their inevitable ruts. At least in theory, anyway.

There are other trainers (Brian Ellison, Michael Bell to name but two) where market support appears to be of significance. The table below is for your reference and contains the Beverley A/E performance for each trainer for each odds bracket. To qualify, a minimum of 25 runners in the 6/1 or less category are required. These data hopefully show how I stumbled onto the Duffield angle.    This approach will, I think, become a staple of how I evaluate trainer and market support in the future.


That’s enough about trainers, maybe a bit too much in fact! Turning the focus, now, to a couple of the specific race distances that the course hosts during the summer months.


Beverley Five Furlongs

Over the minimum trip of five furlongs, races start from a chute beyond the home turn at the bottom of the home straight. It is not around a bend as such, but there is a pronounced dogleg to the right at about halfway and a general curvature in that same direction for much of the trip. This ordinarily would point to a low draw bias, as the low stall numbers are situated towards the far rail, therefore offering the shortest route to the finishing post.

As a result, it would make sense that low draw numbers generally prevail in 5f contests at Beverley given that topology of the trip. The numbers confirm the theory.

Draw bias (IV) at Beverley for races at 5f by field size on Good to Firm, Good and Good to soft ground


Using IV for races with ground conditions of good to firm, good and good to soft, the above table certainly points towards a low draw as being the place to be; or perhaps more accurately a high draw is the place to avoid.

There seems to be an indication of a low draw becoming more advantageous as the number of runners increases. This certainly makes some sense, any advantage from the general curvature of the track from a low draw should increase as the physical distance in starting position becomes greater between the low and high wings.

There is always (or should be) a companion piece when analysing the draw, namely pace. We already know that early speed in a general advantage in these sharp sprint races from Dave Renham’s excellent series on early speed.

Again, Impact Value (IV, or how often something happens in relation to its peer group, where 1 is ‘normal’ and the further away from 1 is better or worse) is my weapon of choice. The visual below is an attempt at recreating the heat map within the draw analyser but for multiple field sizes in the same table. Its content again covers the more rank and file ground conditions from good to firm through to good to soft. [When the ground is soft or heavy, the draw bias at Beverley can reverse with runners often making a beeline for the near side running rail].


To my eye, early speed is important almost irrespective of stall position. It does reaffirm that the larger the volume of competitors the more challenging it is to prevail form a high draw. The big fat zero for Led, High Draw and a field size of 14+ relates to 10 runners, 0 wins and only 2 places.   Not big numbers but a nil is a nil. More importantly, logic supports the notion that these runners are significantly inconvenienced by race conditions.

Prominent runners do remain competitive throughout, perhaps with a notable bias to the lower side of the draw in the medium and large fields. Horses with mid-division and held up run styles face both a literal and metaphorical uphill battle and a lot to overcome.

Of course, nothing is impossible, and any horse can win any race, as our editor is always reminding us! Even the red ‘danger zones’ in the table are generally populated with numbers above zero, meaning at least some winners are found even in these relatively hostile environments. It’s about playing the percentages, however, and hopefully by using data such as these, small incremental improvements can be attained to improve long term results.


Beverley 7.5-furlong races

I’m acutely aware that there is a danger of sounding like a broken record here.  However, the adage of pace wins the race is seldom more apt than in relation to events over the 7.5-furlong distance at Beverley.  The actual official distance is 7f and 96 yards so do bear that in mind as it can be advertised as a plain old seven. Those extra 90-something yards can be of critical importance, especially with the stiff uphill finish coming into play.

To get a feel for the track I find it’s a sensible idea to sit back, perhaps with a cold Peroni (or other suitable equally enjoyable beverage) and take in a few race replays. The course map shows those tight turns but by perusing visual evidence it’s much easier to comprehend and, ultimately, to bring data to life.

Even without the support of stats this trip has all the hallmarks of being a front runner’s playground.   Happily, this can be checked using Query Tool to confirm the hypothesis or disprove it.

I’ve used QT in this case (as opposed to the pace analyser) as I want to compare our subject matter course with other tracks in the UK.


The table above contains data relating to the fate of front-running animals at a 7f trip (to the nearest furlong). The query filters are simply, all races from the 2014 season up to 7th June 2019, Distance 7f and a Pace Score of 4 for the runner to denote front running status; and I’ve sorted by win percent.

In the UK, only Chester has a bias towards pace greater than Beverley at this distance.  It’s a great benchmark as we all know the benefit of early speed at the Roodee. For Beverley to be in the same ballpark is a pleasant and potentially useful surprise. The trailblazers have a very strong record with close to 30% maintaining their advantage at the line, 56% hitting the frame, a very high A/E of 1.61 and a super high IV of 2.68. That’s a rock-solid foundation to build upon.

Expanding on this a little, the numbers in the green and red table below represent the overall pace profile of the 7f trips of the courses in question.



It’s very interesting to note that not only does Beverley have a confirmed and pronounced front running bias, a prominent running style also scores well in comparison to the other tracks.

In simple terms, it’s more important at Beverley to pick a horse with a prominent or pace-setting profile than virtually everywhere else (at this distance). Even if a horse doesn’t lead, the closer it is to the front of the pack the better.

The corollary of this is that hold up horses have a very moderate record over the course and distance (A/E 0.45), the poorest of all the listed tracks.

Field size is worth consideration when analysing front runners. It’s logical to assume (and an obvious point to make) that it’s easier to get a lead in a field of 4 than of 14 for example. The graph below shows the A/E performance of leaders at Beverley over the 7.5 furlongs range based on the number of competing horses.


I’ve excluded a handful of data in the graph related to races with 4, 15 and 16 runners across a total of 7 events, as it’s not helpful given sample sizes are extremely small.

The performance line tracks upwards, demonstrating that A/E improves as the number of runners increases. This works from a sense point of view as horses racing off the pace have a huge challenge to overcome, and simply, there is more of them in bigger fields. An abundant volume of runners means less racing room, so picking up and sweeping by the field is a big ask with a relatively short straight of only 2-and-a-half furlongs: advantage front runners. Importantly, with A/E being a measure of implied profitability, these data show that if you can consistently predict the front runner(s) in larger fields at this course and distance there will be due reward.

That’s all for this edition of Punting Angles. Hopefully there’s plenty to put to work in your own Beverley betting, and don’t forget that the tools here on geegeez.co.uk – especially Draw, Pace, and Query Tool – can give you this sort of leg up at any track you care to look into.

Please feel free to drop me a line with your suggestions, questions or comments. I’d love to hear from you.

  • JS