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Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2020

Monday's pick was...

1.45 Warwick : Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Prominent, disputed lead after 3rd, pushed along before 3 out, lost position well before next, weakened after last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

Much of my "work" has already been done for me on the racecard, but I'll add a little meat to the bones of the following too...

Mindful of not trying to teach you how to suck eggs (there are videos out there for that!), I'll quickly whizz through the above that tells us we've a consistent/in-form runner from an in-form yard who do well when today's jockey is on board and have also been very adept at getting winners to "double up".

So, what can I add?

Well, the recent 121 form for this 5 yr old gelding has all come in the last six weeks since the first-time adoption of cheekpieces and they are retained today (cp4 on the card). One of those wins was on good to firm ground, so the surface shouldn't be an issue. He has no run at today's trip, but is 5 from 21 at 7f and has won over a mile in the past, he's 5 from 13 in fields of 8-10 runners and has one win and one place with Paul Mulrennan on his back.

So that's the horse's suitability assessed, next to the trainer form. The card clearly tells us that David Brown's horses are 3 from 9 in the last fortnight and all I'm going to add to that is to say that in handicaps they are 3 from 7.

The trainer jockey 1-year record is good at 8 from 30 and with this race in mind, it's handy (IMO) to know that those 30 runs include...

  • 8 from 24 from males
  • 7 from 19 at odds of evens to 15/2
  • 7 from 19 in fields of 10 runners or fewer
  • 5 from 19 in handicaps
  • 5 from 18 after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 5 from 14 made the frame LTO
  • 4 from 6 from 5 yr olds
  • and 2 from 6 from LTO winners...

...and we know (via the racecard) the yard has done well over the last couple of years with LTO winners with 7 of 21 going on to win again. This isn't just a recent thing, as closer inspection of trainer David Brown's runners show that over the last five (inc this one) Flat seasons, his Class 3-6 handicappers who won last time out are 9 from 28 (32.1% SR) for profits of 33.9pts (+121% ROI) at Industry SP backed blindly, including 5 winners from the last 9.

Imposing an Evens to 7/1 odds range on those runners shows five winners from the last six...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG as was available at 8.20am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2020

Monday's pick was...

2.20 Catterick : Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/1 (Led, stayed towards inside with one other in in home straight, ridden and pressed over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, weakened inside final furlong) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Saluti @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, we can take quite a bit of inspiration from the racecard...

Fifth last time out doesn't tell the whole story, drawn on the wrong side of 17 stalls in a Class 2 contest over 6f at Goodwood, he was only beaten by 2.5 lengths and beat all bar one of the nine drawn higher than stall 8 (the 3/1 fav beat him by a short head).

Prior to that, this 6 yr old gelding won a Class 3 handicap over 5f at not too distant Pontefract, so I'd expect the drop to Class 4 to suit him well here.

As you can see above, the trainer does well enough here at Beverley and the trainer/jockey combo has been amongst the winners of late, albeit from a small number of runners.

A quick, deeper look at trainer Paul Midgley's record here at Beverley shows that since the start of 2017, his handicappers sent off at 6/1 or shorter here are 8 from 24 (33.3% SR) for 14.1pts (+58.7% ROI), all incidentally over this 5f track and trip and including...

  • 8/20 (40%) for 18.1pts (+90.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 25.1pts (+193%) in fields of 4-10 runners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 10.65pts (+152.2%) in August
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 2.64pts (+52.8%) with jockey Graham Lee...

...whilst in 4-10 runner contests in August within 25 days of their last run, they are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 13.65pts (+341.3% ROI), including 2/2 for 5.64pts (+282%) for today's jockey...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Saluti @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.10am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th August 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.40 Wolverhampton : Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Restless in stalls, chased leaders, pushed along before halfway, ridden 2f out, weakened soon after) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, when I think racing is poor (and it is today), I try to look a bit further down the market for something that should represent some value and give us a run for our money and I expect both to happen here with an experienced runner whose best runs have come on the Flat where he has won six of fifty-four at a reasonable if not earth-shattering 11.11% SR, but it's how he has got those six wins that is of interest today, as he is...

  • 6/40 (15%) for 4pts (+10%) over 7½f to 8½f
  • 6/25 (24%) for 17pts (+68%) off a mark (OR) of 75-86
  • 5/31 (16.1%) for 3.42pts (+11%) at 4-25 dslr
  • 5/26 (19.2%) for 11.55pts (+44.4%) going right handed
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 20.17pts (+106.2%) at Class 4
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 18.53pts (+142.6%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.87pts (+89.8%) here at Beverley
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.87pts (+89.8%) here at Beverley over 7½f to 8½f
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.41pts (+73.5%) over this course and distance.

Things didn't go his way LTO at York over a mile at Class 3, but he now takes a drop in both class and trip to run here, where he was a runner-up two starts ago at this class, course, distance and OR mark of 86. He was only beaten by half a length on that occasion and his cause today should be helped by the booking of 7lb claimer Tyler Heard in the saddle.

Taking 7lbs off is only really useful, if the jockey him/herself brings something to the table and Tyler appears to have something about him judged off his start to life in the saddle, where he is currently 5 from 32 (15.6% SR) for 26.12pts (+81.6% ROI) profit with his 7lb claim, including...

  • 4/18 (22.2%) for 34.09pts (+189.4%) on the Flat
  • 4/16 (25%) for 36.09pts (+225.6%) in the last 28 days
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 36.25pts (+329.6%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 37.25pts (+372.5%) over the last four weeks on good to firm flat ground.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.05am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

5.35 Pontefract : Squelch @ 7/2 BOG non-runner 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Global Exceed @ 11/4 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 10-runner, Class 6 Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We're guided by the racecard today, as is often the case...

...an in-form trainer and jockey who both do well at this track and bring a horse top-rated on the speed ratings to run today.

The 14, 30, C1 and C5 are the base of our bet today, so let's take a closer look...

Over the last 30 days, trainer Karen Tutty's runners are 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 44.29pts (+402.6% ROI) with jockey Gemma's record over the same period standing at 3 from 10 (30%) for 45.29pts (+452.9%), all for trainer Karen.

Over the last fortnight, they are 2 from 6 (33.3% SR) for 11.24pts (+187.3% ROI).

More longer-term ie since 2015, Trainer Karen has had 16 winners from 92 (17.4% SR) for 55.16pts (+60% ROI) here at Beverley, which are excellent figures and contain the following baker's dozen snippets of relevance today...

    • 16/81 (19.8%) for 66.16pts (+81.7%) over trips of 7.5f and beyond
    • 16/70 (22.9%) for 77.16pts (+110.2%) with a jockey claiming 3 or 5 lbs
    • 15/73 (20.6%) for 69.01pts (+94.5%) with male runners
    • 13/80 (16.3%) for 50.19pts (+62.7%) in handicaps
    • 13/70 (18.6%) for 58.03pts (+82.9%) with runners unplaced last time out
    • 13/63 (20.6%) for 70.64pts (+112.1%) in 9-13 runner contests
    • 13/66 (19.7%) for 69.05pts (+104.6%) with horses rested for less than 3 weeks
    • 12/69 (17.4%) for 39.5pts (+57.3%) for Gemma Tutty
    • 12/49 (24.5%) for 58.81pts (+120%) on Good to Firm
    • 11/53 (20.75%) for 49.68pts (+93.7%) in 3yo+ races
    • 11/27 (40.7%) for 37.34pts (+138.3%) at odds ranging from 2/1 to 7/1
    • 8/33 (24.2%) for 22.41pts (+67.9%) in July
    • and 7/43 (16.3%) for 12.62pts (+29.4%) at class 6.

And there are more angles I could quote, but neither of us have all day to type/read them! However if you wanted to combine some of the above...

...then males with less than 3 weeks rest after an unplaced run LTO sent back out to be ridden by a 3/5lb claimer in a 9-13 runner handicap over 7.5 furlongs or further are 10 from 26 (38.5% SR) for 84.8pts (+326.7% ROI), from which Gemma has ridden 6 winners from 22 for 50.18pts profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Global Exceed @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Punting Angles: Beverley Racecourse

Now the 2019 Royal Ascot carnival is confined to history, my attention once again turns to finding some interesting insights on some of the UK’s less glitzy racecourses (which, in their defence, is all of them!), writes Jon Shenton.

Ascot may well be a full bodied, world-class (and expensive) Michelin star racing experience, but sometimes a hearty pub meal and a couple of pints hit the spot like nothing else.

So, clumsy metaphor out of the way, for this edition of punting angles, I’ll be focusing on the picturesque Yorkshire track of Beverley.

I enjoy this particular northern circuit. Fast and furious large field sprints spring to mind, as well as a large cast list of trainers, jockeys and owners which should lead to some reasonable angles and opportunities.

Let’s first take a look at the course map:

 

The diagram illustrates a couple of seemingly devilishly tight turns.  There is also a stiff uphill finish, the little red triangle pointing upwards indicating the highest point on the course is shortly after the finishing post, the lowest point being diagonally opposite. Thus, the final two and a half furlongs are a gradual climb, testing stamina as well as speed over shorter distances. Horses competing at the 5-furlong trip face an uphill task literally almost every step of the way.

 

Beverley trainers

Before analysing specifics regarding race distance profiles, a customary evaluation of trainer performance is in order. My starting filter is that all races from 2012 are included, but only where the runner SP is 20/1 or shorter.  50 runners are required to qualify in the table.

 

To be perfectly honest there doesn’t appear to be too much on here to get overly excited about.  The duo at the top of the table, plus potentially David O’Meara are probably the ones to focus on, if any.

Taking Richard Guest as an example, there is a definite point of interest from a punting perspective.  The Wetherby based operation has had only one solitary winner where there has been a SP of between 11/1 and 20/1 as the numbers below display:

 

The 10/1 or shorter row is a clear indication that market support for a Guest representative is a significant factor in assessing the likely performance of a stable runner.

Not much more to say on that, in truth.

However, whilst I was evaluating runners at the skinny end of the market, I noticed something that I think is worth bringing to your attention. Step forward, Mrs Ann Duffield. Hers is a yard I haven’t really taken a great deal of notice of previously from a data perspective: despite being a regular on the circuit I’ve never established anything robust in stats terms relating to runners from this stable.

 

The table above displays Duffield runners at the track, segmenting them between fancied and less well fancied runners. The delta between the two is noteworthy: just two winners from 127 runners at 6/1 or greater with a painful A/E of 0.25, IV 0.26 and a bankrupting ROI of -61%. Compare this to a strike rate of 35%, 54% ROI and IV of 3.05 for the shorter-priced entries and it’s looks like it’s potential party time when Duffield horses are towards the top of the market.

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We can go slightly further:

 

This table shows the 11/2 or shorter SP data by odds rank, i.e. the position of the horse in the market, 1 being favourite. It may be an arbitrary point, but it certainly appears as though there is a differential between the horses residing in the top two of the market and ones further down the pecking order.

 

I’ve earmarked an alert in my portfolio to track any Duffield shorty that is at the top 2 of the market at Beverley and is less than 11/2 in price.

 

I’m learning that this game is all about constant evolution, by nature I generally search for horses at the more speculative end of the market. However, the more data I crunch the more I’m learning to appreciate these sorts of shorter priced opportunities. They offer balance and, in a world of risk and reward, such angles can keep the wheels turning when the more ambitious plays are stuck in their inevitable ruts. At least in theory, anyway.

There are other trainers (Brian Ellison, Michael Bell to name but two) where market support appears to be of significance. The table below is for your reference and contains the Beverley A/E performance for each trainer for each odds bracket. To qualify, a minimum of 25 runners in the 6/1 or less category are required. These data hopefully show how I stumbled onto the Duffield angle.    This approach will, I think, become a staple of how I evaluate trainer and market support in the future.

 

That’s enough about trainers, maybe a bit too much in fact! Turning the focus, now, to a couple of the specific race distances that the course hosts during the summer months.

  

Beverley Five Furlongs

Over the minimum trip of five furlongs, races start from a chute beyond the home turn at the bottom of the home straight. It is not around a bend as such, but there is a pronounced dogleg to the right at about halfway and a general curvature in that same direction for much of the trip. This ordinarily would point to a low draw bias, as the low stall numbers are situated towards the far rail, therefore offering the shortest route to the finishing post.

As a result, it would make sense that low draw numbers generally prevail in 5f contests at Beverley given that topology of the trip. The numbers confirm the theory.

Draw bias (IV) at Beverley for races at 5f by field size on Good to Firm, Good and Good to soft ground

 

Using IV for races with ground conditions of good to firm, good and good to soft, the above table certainly points towards a low draw as being the place to be; or perhaps more accurately a high draw is the place to avoid.

There seems to be an indication of a low draw becoming more advantageous as the number of runners increases. This certainly makes some sense, any advantage from the general curvature of the track from a low draw should increase as the physical distance in starting position becomes greater between the low and high wings.

There is always (or should be) a companion piece when analysing the draw, namely pace. We already know that early speed in a general advantage in these sharp sprint races from Dave Renham’s excellent series on early speed.

Again, Impact Value (IV, or how often something happens in relation to its peer group, where 1 is ‘normal’ and the further away from 1 is better or worse) is my weapon of choice. The visual below is an attempt at recreating the heat map within the draw analyser but for multiple field sizes in the same table. Its content again covers the more rank and file ground conditions from good to firm through to good to soft. [When the ground is soft or heavy, the draw bias at Beverley can reverse with runners often making a beeline for the near side running rail].

 

To my eye, early speed is important almost irrespective of stall position. It does reaffirm that the larger the volume of competitors the more challenging it is to prevail form a high draw. The big fat zero for Led, High Draw and a field size of 14+ relates to 10 runners, 0 wins and only 2 places.   Not big numbers but a nil is a nil. More importantly, logic supports the notion that these runners are significantly inconvenienced by race conditions.

Prominent runners do remain competitive throughout, perhaps with a notable bias to the lower side of the draw in the medium and large fields. Horses with mid-division and held up run styles face both a literal and metaphorical uphill battle and a lot to overcome.

Of course, nothing is impossible, and any horse can win any race, as our editor is always reminding us! Even the red ‘danger zones’ in the table are generally populated with numbers above zero, meaning at least some winners are found even in these relatively hostile environments. It’s about playing the percentages, however, and hopefully by using data such as these, small incremental improvements can be attained to improve long term results.

 

Beverley 7.5-furlong races

I’m acutely aware that there is a danger of sounding like a broken record here.  However, the adage of pace wins the race is seldom more apt than in relation to events over the 7.5-furlong distance at Beverley.  The actual official distance is 7f and 96 yards so do bear that in mind as it can be advertised as a plain old seven. Those extra 90-something yards can be of critical importance, especially with the stiff uphill finish coming into play.

To get a feel for the track I find it’s a sensible idea to sit back, perhaps with a cold Peroni (or other suitable equally enjoyable beverage) and take in a few race replays. The course map shows those tight turns but by perusing visual evidence it’s much easier to comprehend and, ultimately, to bring data to life.

Even without the support of stats this trip has all the hallmarks of being a front runner’s playground.   Happily, this can be checked using Query Tool to confirm the hypothesis or disprove it.

I’ve used QT in this case (as opposed to the pace analyser) as I want to compare our subject matter course with other tracks in the UK.

 

The table above contains data relating to the fate of front-running animals at a 7f trip (to the nearest furlong). The query filters are simply, all races from the 2014 season up to 7th June 2019, Distance 7f and a Pace Score of 4 for the runner to denote front running status; and I’ve sorted by win percent.

In the UK, only Chester has a bias towards pace greater than Beverley at this distance.  It’s a great benchmark as we all know the benefit of early speed at the Roodee. For Beverley to be in the same ballpark is a pleasant and potentially useful surprise. The trailblazers have a very strong record with close to 30% maintaining their advantage at the line, 56% hitting the frame, a very high A/E of 1.61 and a super high IV of 2.68. That’s a rock-solid foundation to build upon.

Expanding on this a little, the numbers in the green and red table below represent the overall pace profile of the 7f trips of the courses in question.

 

 

It’s very interesting to note that not only does Beverley have a confirmed and pronounced front running bias, a prominent running style also scores well in comparison to the other tracks.

In simple terms, it’s more important at Beverley to pick a horse with a prominent or pace-setting profile than virtually everywhere else (at this distance). Even if a horse doesn’t lead, the closer it is to the front of the pack the better.

The corollary of this is that hold up horses have a very moderate record over the course and distance (A/E 0.45), the poorest of all the listed tracks.

Field size is worth consideration when analysing front runners. It’s logical to assume (and an obvious point to make) that it’s easier to get a lead in a field of 4 than of 14 for example. The graph below shows the A/E performance of leaders at Beverley over the 7.5 furlongs range based on the number of competing horses.

 

I’ve excluded a handful of data in the graph related to races with 4, 15 and 16 runners across a total of 7 events, as it’s not helpful given sample sizes are extremely small.

The performance line tracks upwards, demonstrating that A/E improves as the number of runners increases. This works from a sense point of view as horses racing off the pace have a huge challenge to overcome, and simply, there is more of them in bigger fields. An abundant volume of runners means less racing room, so picking up and sweeping by the field is a big ask with a relatively short straight of only 2-and-a-half furlongs: advantage front runners. Importantly, with A/E being a measure of implied profitability, these data show that if you can consistently predict the front runner(s) in larger fields at this course and distance there will be due reward.

That’s all for this edition of Punting Angles. Hopefully there’s plenty to put to work in your own Beverley betting, and don’t forget that the tools here on geegeez.co.uk – especially Draw, Pace, and Query Tool – can give you this sort of leg up at any track you care to look into.

Please feel free to drop me a line with your suggestions, questions or comments. I’d love to hear from you.

  • JS