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Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

5.10 Newmarket : Rogue @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed narrowly inside final furlong, ran on but beaten by a head)

Monday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Desert Ace 9/2 BOG

In a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good To Firm ground worth £4033 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

OK, so I'm running late, so some of this might look a bit more like note form than usual, but trust me the usual amount of research has been done!

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding whose last 5 runs contain 2 visits to Beverley for a crack at this course and distance resulting in two wins. He won a Class 5 contest (similar to today) in mid-May before striking again here last time out 16 days ago.

That, however was at a higher grade than today and the jockey from LTO, Kevin Stott, retains the ride which is a positiver as he's 13 from 78 (16.7% SR) for 23.1pts (+29.6% ROI) here at Beverley over the last six (incl this one) seasons, with a 12 from 60 record (20%) for 37.6pts (+62.6%) at 5 to 8.5 furlongs.

Then we come to trainer Paul Midgley and his ability to get his Flat handicappers to win back to back races, as since the start of the 2011 season his LTO winners are 28/186 (15.1% SR) for 136pts (+73.5%) in Flat handicaps, from which...

  • 5 to 6.5 f = 24/150 (16%) for 112.1pts (+75.2%)
  • 4-20 days since run = 21/109 (19.3%) for 149.2pts (+138.1%)
  • and at 5 to 6.5f, 4-20 dslr = 17*91 (18.7%) for 107.3pts (+119.2%)

And Paul is one of my go-to trainers for a micro I simply named "Late Summer Cappers", basically in Paul's case I look for his Class 4/5 Flat handicappers running in July-September. Since the start of July 2014, such runners are 34/200 (17% SR) for 91.9pts (+45.95% ROI), including...

  • over 5/6f : 34/189 (18%) for 102.9pts (+54.4%)
  • 11-25 dslr : 23/111 (20.7%) for 101.8pts (+91.7%)
  • on Good to Firm : 10/68 (14.7%) for 37.9pts (+55.7%)
  • LTO winners : 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.8pts (+99.3%)
  • 7 yr olds = 6/21 (28.6%) for 66.6pts (+317%)
  • and at Beverley : 4/15 (26.7%) for 37.4pts (+249.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Desert Ace 9/2 BOGa price available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.50pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

5.10 Newmarket : Rogue @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed narrowly inside final furlong, ran on but beaten by a head)

Monday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Desert Ace 9/2 BOG

In a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good To Firm ground worth £4033 to the winner...

Why?

OK, so I'm running late, so some of this might look a bit more like note form than usual, but trust me the usual amount of research has been done!

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding whose last 5 runs contain 2 visits to Beverley for a crack at this course and distance resulting in two wins. He won a Class 5 contest (similar to today) in mid-May before striking again here last time out 16 days ago.

That, however was at a higher grade than today and the jockey from LTO, Kevin Stott, retains the ride which is a positiver as he's 13 from 78 (16.7% SR) for 23.1pts (+29.6% ROI) here at Beverley over the last six (incl this one) seasons, with a 12 from 60 record (20%) for 37.6pts (+62.6%) at 5 to 8.5 furlongs.

Then we come to trainer Paul Midgley and his ability to get his Flat handicappers to win back to back races, as since the start of the 2011 season his LTO winners are 28/186 (15.1% SR) for 136pts (+73.5%) in Flat handicaps, from which...

  • 5 to 6.5 f = 24/150 (16%) for 112.1pts (+75.2%)
  • 4-20 days since run = 21/109 (19.3%) for 149.2pts (+138.1%)
  • and at 5 to 6.5f, 4-20 dslr = 17*91 (18.7%) for 107.3pts (+119.2%)

And Paul is one of my go-to trainers for a micro I simply named "Late Summer Cappers", basically in Paul's case I look for his Class 4/5 Flat handicappers running in July-September. Since the start of July 2014, such runners are 34/200 (17% SR) for 91.9pts (+45.95% ROI), including...

  • over 5/6f : 34/189 (18%) for 102.9pts (+54.4%)
  • 11-25 dslr : 23/111 (20.7%) for 101.8pts (+91.7%)
  • on Good to Firm : 10/68 (14.7%) for 37.9pts (+55.7%)
  • LTO winners : 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.8pts (+99.3%)
  • 7 yr olds = 6/21 (28.6%) for 66.6pts (+317%)
  • and at Beverley : 4/15 (26.7%) for 37.4pts (+249.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Desert Ace 9/2 BOGa price available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.50pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 26th June

NEWBURY – JUNE 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,782.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 66.2% units went through – 3/1* - 6/1 – 8/1

Race 2: 28.3% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 – 20/1 – 13/2 (4/1)

Race 3: 50.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 20/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 11/4* - 8/1

Race 5: 4.6% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 16/1 – 11/1 (3/1)

Race 6: 12.0% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 – 15/2, 12/1 (5/1)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (6.10): 5 (Outofthequestion) & 3 (Kings Inn)

Leg 2 (6.40): 9 (Iconic Choice), 3 (Canford Dancer) & 8 (Fast Endeavour)

Leg 3 (7.10): 8 (Lolita Polido), 12 (Spanish Aria) & 2 (Cottontail)

Leg 4 (7.40): 4 (Tuff Rock) & 1 (Teodoro)

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Leg 5 (8.10): 4 (Carlini), 3 (Enzo) & 5 (Dukeofwallingford)

Leg 6 (8.45): 2 (Swanton Blue), 6 (Yogiyogiyogi) & 9 (Global Excel)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.10: Starting point to the meeting; there are no course winners in the Placepot races tonight, lest you thought I had forgotten to include the service!  Secondly; if you were trying to find the results of the corresponding meeting from last year, you need to go to the Thursday of the same week (29th). Upwards and onward by informing that four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last seven renewals of this event and the trend looks certain to gain momentum this year with the likes of OUTOFTHEQUESTION and KINGS INN having been declared by their dual purpose trainers, namely Alan King and Paul Nicholls respectively.  Hopefully, just the two ‘selections’ will be enough to progress through to the second leg of our favourite wager, this being a potential ‘dead eight’ event.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last five favourites (via four renewals) has secured a Placepot position (no winners).

 

6.40: ICONIC CHOICE seems to logical place to start after a decent effort at Haydock at the first time of asking when closing on the three principles close home without the jockey using his whip.  Michael Bell expected better of his Pastoral Pursuits filly FAST ENDEAVOUR from what we have witnessed thus far but it is still early doors in her career, whereby another Placepot position cannot be ruled out of the equation.  CANFORD DANCER was reluctant at the stalls and raced wide when making her debut, finishing best of the newcomers. 14/1 looks a big enough price about the Richard Hughes raider in this grade/company.

Favourite factor:  Both of the (4/1 & 9/4) favourites have finished out with the washing to date.

 

7.10: COTTONTAIL looks a tad too big at 14/1 in a place this morning, now stepping up a couple of furlongs following her debut over the minimum trip.  That said, there was plenty to like about LOLITA POLIDO at the first time of asking at Kempton too, especially with the form having been franked to decent effect.  John Gosden reports that SPANISH ARIA has a little bit of temperament about her but John is one to enthuse over such mannerisms rather than worry about them.

Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

7.40: There is a plenty of realistic money in the positive exchange queue about TUFF ROCK and TEODORO as the heat begins to kick in already this morning on another wonderful summer day in Bristol.  The race is likely to be run to suit David Simcock’s first named inmate who represents the stable for the first time.  David is adept at taking in ‘refugees’ from other yards and finding a few pounds and pounces of improvement, which is all that might be necessary to lift this prize.  I guess we should not entirely rule Travertine out of the mix too quickly, given that Jonjo O’Neill has saddled six of his last 14 runners to winning effect, statistics which have produced ten points of level stake profit during the period.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newbury card.

 

8.10: Seven of the eight winners have carried weights between nine stones and 9-6 which eliminates the top two horses in the handicap, leaving the merits of ENZO and DUKEOFWALLINGFORD to (arguably) consider first and foremost.  Brian Meehan saddles his first runners tonight (CARLINI in this contest) since thwarting the huge gamble in the ‘Wokingham’ on Saturday relating to Dreamfield who was sent off as the shortest priced market leader in the race for as long as anyone can recall.  One of the worst things punters can do is listen to comments of media commentators who generalise all too often.  Yes, the victory of Brian’s Bacchus would have annoyed many a person, but possibly not as much as the rails bookmakers who laid the 33/1 winner to a ‘grand’ each way just before the off!

Favourite factor: There is only one successful (9/4) favourite to report via eight renewals thus far.  Detectives are still out searching for the other seven market leaders which failed to reach the frame!

 

8.45: Last year’s beaten favourite DEEDS NOT WORDS has been declared again but as has been offered before, I tend to find Michael Wigham’s runners working better for me when they are at a double figure price.  Accordingly, I prefer the likes of SWANTON BLUE, YOGIYOGIYOGI and GLOBAL EXCEL on this occasion. There is plenty of money queuing up for Deeds Not Words at the time of writing, though that is nothing new.  I was ‘on’ a few months ago at a double figure price which was halved in no time at all, only for the horse to be withdrawn…

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/1 favourite (Deeds Not Words) finished out of the money.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 19th June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 19

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years on Day One:

2017: £585.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,219.40 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £174.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £200.20 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £564.20 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £872.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner & 6 unplaced)

2011: £40.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £522.47

45 favourites - 15 winners - 10 placed 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 78.0% units went through – 11/10* - 5/1 – 12/1

Race 2: 20.9% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 33/1 – 8/1 (4/1)

Race 3: 59.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 14/1 – 11/4*

Race 4: 25.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 12/1 – 6/1 (1/2*)

Race 5: 51.9% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 10/1 – 5/1 – 12/1

Race 6: 9.6% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 12/1 – 25/1 (13/8)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 15 (Rhododendron) & 3 (Benbati)

Leg 2 (3.05): 20 (Swergai Prokofiev), 7 (Calyx) & 23 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Lady Aurelia) & 2 (Blue Point)

Leg 4 (4.20): 8 (U S Navy Flag), 9 (Without Parole) & 10 (Wooton)

Leg 5 (5.00): 7 (Chelkar), 20 (Coeur De Lion), 1 (Whiskey Sour) & 11 (Look My Way)

Leg 6 (5.35): 9 (Laaraib), 13 (Sharja Bridge) & 15 (Yucatan)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30:  Four-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of this opening Queen Anne Stakes, stats which support the chances of RHODODRENDON and BENBATI, horses that possess other firm trends in their favour.  Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes in very much the best stepping stone for this event and RHODODENDRON won the event this year with Aiden O’Brien’s raider returning to the type of form he showed of old.  It’s worth noting that Aidan’s two winners during the last decade ran in the ‘Lockinge’ in their previous races, albeit without winning their respective contests.  No trainer has saddled more ‘Queen Anne’ winners that Saeed Bin Suroor (seven in total) whereby we know that BENBATI has been laid out for the contest for some considerable time.  With Saeed having saddled his last winner in the race back in 2007, few people would deny the original ‘blue trainer’ another victory.  A far as jockeys are concerned, we have to focus on Ryan Moore (RHODODENDRON) whose record since 2013 stands at 45% in terms of his mounts finishing in the first three, 21% of which were winners! Indeed, Ryan set a post war record in 2015 by riding nine winners at the meeting. Recoletros is the nomination for the overnight reserve, whilst the pick of the big outsiders could prove to be Beat The Bank who although trounced by Aidan’s projected favourite in the Lockinge has, at least, got race fitness back on his side this time around.  That said, the last ten winners have all emerged from the front three in the market.  Frankie Dettori would have been trying to take the outright lead in the ‘jockey stakes’ in the race but for missing out on a ride, having the same number of winners (six in total) as Sir Gordon Richards.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored in the last twenty one years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the five course winners in the Queen Anne Stakes:

1/4—Accidental Agent (good to soft)

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1/2—Benbati (good to firm)

1/3—Century Dream (soft)

1/3—Limato (goot to firm)

1/2—Lord Glitters (soft)

 

3.05: Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last 22 renewals of the Coventry Stakes and Aidan saddles two runners this time around, the pick of which looks to be his Scat Daddy colt SERGAI PORKOFIEV. That said, THE IRISH ROVER won at the Lockinge meeting at Newbury is taking style suggesting that Aidan’s ‘second string’ is no forlorn hope, especially from a Placepot perspective.  No trainer has even equalled Aiden’s record in the race, let alone beaten his record.  A victory for John Gosden’s Kingman raider CALYX would put a smile on the trainer’s face, the sire having only been beaten (half a length) in the 2014 renewal of the 2000 Guineas in eight races during his wonderful career.  Speculative investors could do worse than have a small each way nibble with Advertise.  That said, eight of the last ten winners have emerged from the front three in the market.

Favourite factor: Seven clear favourites and three joint market leaders have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  

Record of the two course winners in the Coventry Stakes:

1/1—Blown By Wind (good to firm)

1/1—Getchagetchagetcha (good to soft)

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years: 

11 winners—9 placed—25 unplaced.

'Starting prices stats in the last 15 years: 

7/1 or less: 12 winners—-10 placed—-31 unplaced

15/2 or more: 3 winners—-20 placed-—181 unplaced

28/1 or more: No winners-—6 placed—-87 unplaced

Foaling stats in the last 15 years:

January: 1 winner & 7 places

February: 6 winners & 7 places

March: 5 winners & 9 places

April: 3 winners & 5 places

May: No winners & 2 places

 

3.40: Nine of the last fifteen renewals have been won by ‘overseas’ raiders and I find it difficult to pretend that I have enthused over foreign victories at Ascot over these last few years as John McCririck and others have done.  I find Royal Ascot a difficult enough place to back winners without unknown form lines to sift through.  Each to his own of course but from a punter’s perspective, I expected better of ‘Big Mac’ who has so often boasted of being the punter‘s best pal.  Then again, the man is all about selling himself on the bigger stage, so it works for him I guess.  We have been assured by media commentators this this event has long since looked to be a match between LADY AURELIA and BATTAASH, though sprint races in particular have long since had a habit of producing ‘pear shaped’ results.  Both horses have obvious claims via the form book but tell me something; if the form book is the be all and end all of racing, why are there so many bookmakers rubbing their hands with glee this morning?  Indeed, this is the perfect type of race for layers, with punters anxious to get their cash on two horses which ‘couple’ at odds of around 1/2, with twelve other half decent rivals trying to lower their colours!  On the face of things bookmakers can’t lose because if the market leaders fight out the finish, layers have an even money chance of the right one winning for them, with only one placed horse in their books costing them money!  LADY AURELIA (been there and obtained the t-shirt) is my pick of the duo, though hopefully BLUE POINT will make the pair pull out all of the stops close home.

Favourite factor: Two of the last eleven favourites have won, whilst 12 of the last 27 market leaders have secured Placepot positions going back further in time

Record of the five course winners in the Kings Stand Stakes:

2/3—Blue Point (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Gifted Master (good to soft)

1/5—Washington DC (good to firm)

2/2—Lady Aurelia (Good to firm & soft)

1/1—Different League (good to firm)

 

4.20: Let’s get one thing straight to start with.  Media commentators will be waxing lyrical about this event but it takes facts to back up big races and this renewal does not ‘cut the mustard’ I’m afraid.  The last five winners have averaged an official rating of 122, compared to the mark of 109 for Tuesday’s projected market leader.  There is no doubting the potential of John Gosden’s raider WITHOUT PAROLE but that said, his last win was in a Listed event at Sandown whereas last year’s winner was coming off the back off a second placed effort in the Group 1 2000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last seventeen renewals of the feature race on day one of the royal meeting (no trainer has saddled more gold medallists in this Group 1 event), whilst it should not be forgotten that his 20/1 representative Zoffany gave Frankel a fright seven years ago.  Aidan saddles US NAVY FLAG who is a dual Group 1 winner, albeit as a juvenile.  There was plenty to like about his second placed effort in the Irish 2000 Guineas the last day, whilst my trio against the remaining seven contenders is completed by WOOTON who will represent decent Placepot value, as is the case for most overseas raiders.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won 12 of the last 19 contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last 19 years was an 8/1 chance.  15 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

5.00: Four and five-year-olds towards the top of the weights fit positive trends in this marathon event these days (though the trends have not worked out well these last three years in all honesty), statistics which bring in the likes of four of the five Willie Mullins raiders into the equation, the pick of which arguably include CHELKAR and WHISKEY SOUR. Ten of the last twelve winners have been trained by ‘dual purpose handlers’ whereby COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY additionally enter the overnight mix. Eight of the last ten winners emerged from the top four horses in the betting, whilst last nine of the last 14 winners carried weights ranging between 8-12 and 9-3, burdens which are carried by my two English contenders COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last nineteen years (three winners).  Although 10 winners during the study period were returned in double figures only two extreme outsiders (given the nature of the contest--25/1 or more) have prevailed.  I suggested in 2007 that the 20/1 winner Full House had a live each way chance, but did not consider the horse as an ‘outsider’ as such given that twenty runners went to post.  I can never agree with pundits who rate 7/1 and 8/1 chance as outsiders, unless they are contesting a three runner race perhaps.  My rule of thumb suggests that outsiders can never be labelled as such unless their odds vastly outnumber the number of runners in a race.  With 20 runners set to face the starter on this occasion, only runners at 22/1 or more are ‘realistic’ outsiders from my perspective. 

Record of course winners on the Ascot Stakes:  

1/6—Hassle (good)

1/1—Sam Missile (good to firm)

 

5.35: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 18 renewals of this Class 1 handicap contest (previous contested on the Saturday of the five day meeting) whilst seventeen of those winners carried weights of 9-5 or less during the study period. Putting the stats and facts together, I expect the trends to continue via the likes of LARAAIB, SHARJA BRIDGE and YUCATAN.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute’s raider MIRAGE DANCER only carries 16 ounces over the ‘superior barrier’ whereby Michael might finally take the trainer record from Sir Henry Cecil, the pair each having saddled a staggering 75 winners at the royal meeting.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful clear market leaders and one joint favourite.

Course record of the course winner in the Listed Wolferton Handicap:

1/1—Laraaib (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th June

HAYDOCK – JUNE 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Sea Youmzain) & 2 (Podemos)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Cribbs Causeway), 5 (God Given) & 4 (Fosun)

Leg 3 (3.25): 7 (Final Venture), 9 (Muthmir) & 4 (Blue De Vega)

Leg 4 (4.00): 3 (Emmaus), 2 (Dutch Connection) & 1 (D’Bai)

Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Calder Prince) & 2 (Mickey)

Leg 6 (5.10): 1 (Last Page), 3 (Breaking Records) & 2 (Choice Encounter)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: SEA YOUMZAIN represents Mark Johnston’s yard which is approaching ‘boiling point’ now and with support coming in for his recent Nottingham winner, Mark’s Sea The Stars raider can follow up successfully. PODEMOS is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card with which to open proceedings.

 

2.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests and CRIBBS CAUSEWAY and GOD GIVEN head this year’s vintage representatives from my viewpoint, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, foreign raiders often represent decent value from a Placepot perspective which will, likely as not, be the case again with the German representative FOSUN having been declared.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick this time around having won three renewals during the last decade during which time, all ten gold medallists scored at a top price of 10/1.  Half (6/12) of the favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.

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Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—God Given (soft)

 

3.25: FINAL VENTURE has been dropped nine spots by the official assessor since winning this event twelve months ago and cynics could argue that running off the same weight here suggests that Paul Midgley’s inmate is up against it, and then some!  Overnight support suggests that this might not be the attitude to take however and certainly from a Placepot perspective, I have no hesitation is adding Paul’s eight time winner into the equation.  Others to consider include MUTHMIR and BLUE DE VEGA, especially as Robert Cowell’s latter named raider is the pick of the two five-year-olds in the contest, with vintage representatives boasting four victories in the race during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals. That said, the four favourites before the last two market leaders won their respective events had finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/2—Gracious John (soft)

1/2—Final Venture (soft)

 

4.00: Four-year-olds boast the best recent record on the ‘John Of Gaunt’ event, snaring five contests during the last ten years and EMMAUS and D’BAI both offer serious form to bring into the contest on this occasion.  The pair is listed in order of preference with Roger Varian (Emmaus) getting into top form now, the trainer having secured three victories via his last six runners.  The main threat to vintage contenders this time around appears to be DUTCH CONNECTION.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last ten contests.  Aside from a couple of rogue gold medallists at 33/1 and 10/1, the other eight renewals during the last decade have been claimed by horses starting at a top price of 6/1.  Six of the last eleven favourites during the last decade claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Muntadab (soft)

1/1—Tabarrak (good to firm)

 

4.35: Tom Dascombe (and Michael Owen for that matter) hold this venue and Chester close to their hearts and the two inmates CALDER PRINCE and MICKEY both have sound claims in this grade/company on the best of their form lines.  I doubt whether both horses will finish out of the frame in all honesty, offering REPUTATION as the party pooper in the field if Tom and Michael are to be denied from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/2 favourite finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest:

2/8—Calder Prince (good to firm & soft)

2/2—Pennsylvania Dutch (good & soft)

 

5.10: David Evans has two chances on the card but LAST PAGE is his main player from my viewpoint and 7/1 with Skybet this morning proved too big for yours truly to resist.  Three of the last four winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-5, stats which also bring BREAKING RECORDS and CHOICE ENCOUNTER into the mix.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won two of the six renewals in the Placepot finale.  Five of the six market leaders have secured Placpot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2018

Friday's Pick was...

6.30 Goodwood : Oeil De Tigre @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Pulled hard in touch, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, soon hung badly right but ran on well to win by 3.5 lengths)

We continue with Saturday's...

3.15 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG 

A 13-runner, Fillies Conditions Stakes for 2yo over 5f on Good ground worth £21788 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, as per the summary at the foot of our racecard, the last 17 runnings of this contest have been won by 11 LTO winners and 3 debutants and with just 3 LTO winners and no debutants today, I was drawn to this filly, who has previously run well enough in better company.

Her form to date reads 1191 with the "9" not being as bad as a 9 normally looks, it was actually a 3 length defeat in a Listed contest on the quickest ground she's encountered to date, so no disgrace there.

Otherwise she's 3/4 at 5 furlongs, 2/3 with today's jockey (PJ McDonald who won for us on Thursday with Quantatmental), 2/2 at Class 2 and 2/2 on good ground.

It pays to be up with the pace over 5f at Beverley and she's one of just two who like to lead here and although it's generally perceived that a high draw (she's in 12) isn't great here, the data on our Pace/Draw analysis says otherwise and she'll also be helped by the other pace angle being next to her in 11.

And the stats behind the pick?

Well, I ignored the obvious/easy route of telling you to back Mark Johnston runners at Beverley, as much has already been made of this both in this column and elsewhere and whilst it is of course valid, we do like to find you something different for SotD.

So, yes it is a Mark Johnston runner at Beverley, but did you know that since the start of 2014, his runners who won LTO 1-25 days earlier at the same class & distance are 28 from 98 (28.3% SR) for 57.4pts (+58% ROI)?

And of those 98...

  • those who won by just a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 17/63 (27%) for 67.6pts (+107%)
  • at Class 2 : 6/31 (19.4%) for 52.7pts (+170%)
  • on good ground : 4/13 (30.8%) for 48.5pts (+373%)

...and Class 2 runners who won by just a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 59.7pts (+248.7% ROI), with a 2/5 (40%) record on good ground yielding 53.67pts at an ROI of 1053.4%. This allied to MJ's well-documented Beverley record...

...gives us...a 1pt win bet on No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Ladbrokes & Paddy Power at 5.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 30th May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £158.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 47.1% units went through – 16/1 – 5/1 – 4/1*

Race 2: 38.3% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 & 7/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 44.4% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 6/1

Race 4: 55.1% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* & 6/1

Race 5: 22.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/1 – 16/1 – 7/2 (13/8)

Race 6: 46.6% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 14 (Sabia Sabai), 8 (Heartwarming) & 15 (She Can Boogie)

Leg 2 (2.50): 6 (Nuns Walk) & 1 (Island Of Life)

Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Autumn Leaves) & 1 (Fille De Reve)

Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Repercussion), 6 (Zwayyan) & 7 (Daira Prince)

Leg 5 (4.20): 10 (Time To Sea), 5 (Fisher Green) & 2 (Fanfair)

Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (River Glades) & 3 (Sassie)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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2.20: Tom Dascombe was quite keen on SHE CAN BOOGIE earlier in the year but having suffered a slight setback in her work, it will be interesting to see how the Dandy Man filly has ‘recovered’. While on the subject of juveniles, I should just offer a pointer from yesterday whereby you can put a line through the effort of Gracious Dane who was greener than the grass at Leicester yesterday, as the market indicated.  Back to this event by suggesting that SABAI SABAI and HEARTWARMING have had the jungle drums beating in their respective ‘neck of the woods’ for a while now.  CAPLA ROCK sets the standard thus far, though the bar is not set that high and it would be a tad disappointing if at least one of the three newcomers mentioned in dispatches failed to get on terms at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have secured Placepot positions via four renewals thus far, statistics which include one (7/4**) winner.

 

2.50: Although only three of Tim Easterby’s last fifteen runners have won, investors would have made a half decent level stake profit during the period, notwithstanding three of Tim’s other runners having finished in the frame at each way prices for good measure.  Tom saddles NUNS WALK with claims here, with connections probably having most to fear from other four-year-olds such as ISLAND OF LIFE and (possibly) MELONADE.  Although we have hardly established a trend as such following just two renewals, four-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick.  Last year’s winner Socialites Red looks to have a little more to do today.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite duly obliged, though detectives are still combing the area for the 5/2 market leader from last year which was sunk without trace.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

2/5—Socialites Red (2 x good)

2/4—Sitar (2 x good to soft)

 

3.20: Ten of the eleven winners in as many years have carried a minimum burden of 9-1, statistics which produce seven qualifiers on this occasion.  Clive Cox has started the season well which is invariably the case and aside from Heartwarming in the opening event, the popular trainers saddled AUTUMN LEAVES here boasting definite claims following a nice win at Salisbury last back end at the third time of asking.  Odds of 10/3 are available in a couple of places and win, lose or draw, I doubt that price will get bigger as the day wears on. We have to take it on trust that the Helmet filly will see out the additional furlong at full speed but given that she won on this ground in August, I’m willing to take that chance.   That said, the nine strong field is packed with promising fillies in an absorbing contest, the pick of which today (not necessarily for the season as a whole) could prove to be HARVEST DAY and (particularly) FILLE DE REVE.

Favourite factor: Six of the last nine renewals have been secured by market leaders during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1.  Ten of the eleven favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

 

3.50: Five-year-olds have won three of the four renewals to date and with REPERCUSSION attracting money overnight, I’m tilting towards the chance of the Charlie Fellowes raider minute by minute.  Richard Kingscote boasts a 50% record for the trainer for good measure, albeit following just two opportunities in the saddle.  Other contenders worthy of a passing interest include ZWAYYAN (the other five-year-old in the field) and DAIRA PRINCE, a winner of three of five handicaps contested thus far. The declarations of Tricorn and Seniority add plenty of interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (13/8 & 9/4) gold medallists.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/2—Daira Prince (good to firm)

 

4.20: Trainer John Butler complicates matters by declaring three runners in the field, with ‘early money’ seemingly suggesting that TIME TO SEA is the pick of the trio.  Roger Fell is rapidly becoming one of my favourite ‘unsung’ handlers and FISHER GREEN could go well on his first run for the yard this afternoon.  Other each way types to consider include seven time winner WOODY BAY and FANFAIR.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth event on the card:

1/9—Woody Bay (good to firm)

1/2—Torch (good to firm)

 

4.50: Eight of the nine winners in the Placepot finale have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, though I have only left the stats in for your records as all seven runners qualify via the weight trend this time around.  I’m sticking with RIVER GLADES and his Wetherby form over two of these rivals, despite the fact that Mark Johnston’s top weight let the side down away from turf the last day.  Mark has a knack of reviving his inmates like few other trainers can match.  SASSIE is slightly preferred to SOTOMAYER as the main threat.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via just nine renewals.  Nine of the ten favourites secured Placepot positions for good measure.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stat of the Day, 15th May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

2.55 Wolverhampton : Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG 10th at 9/4 (Held up mid-division, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We continue with Tuesday's...

4.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 4,  1m½f  Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good ground worth £6553 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding returned from a 12 week break to run well in third place staying on late over 7f at Chester 6 days ago and is taken to fare even better for (a) having had a run, (b) upped in trip and (c) returning to Beverley where his form reads 121 including a 1 from 1 record over course and distance.

His trainer David Loughnane is 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 86.7pts (+255% ROI) here at Beverley, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 60.1pts (+240.6%) in handicaps
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 22.6pts over this 8.5f course and distance
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 14.6pts (+243.4%) at Class 4
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 32.8pts (+1093.3%) with Ben Curtis in the saddle.

Ben, himself, seems to enjoy coming here as he's won 17 of his 80 (21.3% SR) rides here since the start of 2016 generating profits of 39.5pts (+49.3% ROI) for those backing him blindly with 3 winners from 6 950%) for 40pts (+666.6%) this year alone.

...and that's how I got to...a 1pt win bet on Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Coral and Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 7th May

BATH – MAY 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £191.20 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.3% units went through – 8/1 – 20/1 – 7/1 (2 x 7/2**)

Race 2: 44.3% of the remaining units when through – 10/1 – 4/1 – 5/1 (11/4)

Race 3: 66.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* & 16/1

Race 4: 57.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)

Race 5: 39.4% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)

Race 6: 16.4% of the units secured the dividend – 12/1 & 12/1 (11/8)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Bath: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Karalini) & 10 (Signora Cabello)

Leg 2 (2.50): 2 (Prominna), 6 (Burauq) & 10 (Black Truffle)

Leg 3 (3.25): 5 (Spirit Of Zebedee), 10 (Divine Call) & 6 (Dreams Of Glory)

Leg 4 (4.00): 1 (Barbill) & 8 (Cloud Seeding)

Leg 5 (4.35): 4 (Tricksy Spirit), 2 (Rock Of Estonia) & 9 (Aquadabra)

Leg 6 (5.10): 2 (Cent Flying) & 3 (Glamorous Rocket)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • I hope you had part of the Placepot dividend yesterday, given that we had 40p of the £512.10 dividend = a return of £216.84 – following a ‘successful pot’ at Newmarket the previous day.

 

2.15: Boasting a ratio of 7/9 here at Bath this season, Mick Channon will be coming to one of his ‘local’ tracks in confident mode and KARALINI is the only horse in the contest that punters want to know at the time of writing.  SIGNORA CABELLO is the mount of Silvestre De Sousa who has ridden three winners for John Quinn whereby the chance for this long distance traveller is respected.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Bath with which to open proceedings.

 

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2.50: Tony Carrol has had his runners in good form for some time now and though good to soft was registered when scoring here at Bath, George Downing could be in the thick of this at the business end of proceedings aboard this Proclamation gelding who is a four time gold medallist.  Others for the melting pot include BURAUQ and BLACK TRUFFLE.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 joint favourites both finished out of the frame.

Bath record of course winners in the second race:

1/3—Langham Vale (good to soft)

1/4—Prominna (good to soft)

2/14—Burauq (good to soft & good to firm)

1/8—Spellmaker (firm)

 

3.25: Silvestre takes his second ride for John Quinn and in a weak contest, SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE can surely reach the frame in this grade/company.  Connections probably have most to fear from the likes of DIVINE CALL and DREAMS OF GLORY.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply. Last year’s inaugural 7/2 joint favourites both finished out of the frame.

Bath record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

3/6—Compton Prince (2 x good to firm & firm)

5/27—Dreams Of Glory (2 x good to firm – 2 x firm – good)

2/11—Divine Call (good & good to soft)

 

4.00: Mick Channon saddles the second of his three runners on the card and BARBILL cannot be excluded from the mix given Mick’s record at the track this term.  At the prices on offer, Ginger Nut could be worth opposing whereby CLOUD SEEDING is added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite finished well down the field in which horses sent off at 20/1-12/1-14/1 filled the frame, a result which had a great influence of the great Placepot dividend of £2,037.80.  Last year’s race went to plan for supporters of the 3/10 market leader.

 

4.35: There will be worse outsiders on the card than AQUADBRA I’ll wager who has her first run for Christopher Mason, having been previously stabled at Mick Channon’s yard.  Talking of Mick, his third and final contender at the meeting is TRICKSY SPIRIT, whilst ROCK OF ESTONIA (winner on this card twelve months ago) completes my trio against the remaining six declarations.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 favourite last year finished nearer last than first (sixth of eight).

Bath record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Rock On Estonia (firm)

1/3—Aquadabra (firm)

 

5.10: CENT FLYING looks to be something of a banker in the lucky last (from a Placepot perspective), with GLAMOROUS ROCKET marginally preferred to Inuk as the main threat.

Bath record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Cent Flying (good)

 

Bath record of course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 5.45:

1/3—King Crimson (good to soft)

1/20—Swendab (good to firm)

3/21—Jaganory (firm – good to soft – soft)

4/17—Milly Jones (4 x firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 26th April

BEVERLEY – APRIL 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £606.57 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 86.0% of the remaining units when through – 4/9* - 50/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 57.9% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 5/2** (5/2**)

Race 4: 25.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 18/1 – 14/1 (10/3)

Race 5: 40.5% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 5/1 – 8/1 (2 x 9/2**)

Race 6: 74.7% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 & 6/4*

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 6 (Acclaim The Nation), 14 (Crosse Fire) & 15 (Cameo Star)

Leg 2 (2.00): 6 (Jensue), 11 (Shumookhi) & 12 (Signora Cabello)

Leg 3 (2.35): 4 (Shazzab) & 2 (Exhort)

Leg 4 (3.10): 8 (Song Of Summer), 10 (Onefootinparadise) & 2 (Scenic River)

Leg 5 (3.45): 5 (Rita’s Man), 1 (Liquid Gold) & 8 (Bollin Ted)

Leg 6 (4.20): 8 (Inflexiaball) & 5 (Vigee Le Brun)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.30: The last nine winners have carried nine stones or more to victory, though the stat is not all that impressive as all bar one of the fifteen runners this time around qualify via the weight trend.  You’ll note that one runner has already defected whereby we ‘Potters’ are denied a fourth place, by way of a change! Upwards and onward by suggesting that ACCLAIM THE NATION, CROSSE FIRE and CAMEO STAR should get us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Grandad’s World.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites have prevailed, whilst eight of the last twelve market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  All twelve winners during the last fourteen years scored at a top price of 8/1.

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Record of the five course winners in the opening contest:

1/2—Jacob’s Pillow (good to firm)

1/2—Acclaim The Nation (good to soft)

1/5—Crosse Fire (good to firm)

1/1—Cameo Star (good to firm)

2/9—Pearl Noir (good & good to firm)

 

2.00: Of the horses I short listed overnight, only JENSUE has remained ‘in positive mode’ on the exchanges, with the likes of SHUMOOKHI and SIGNORA CABELLO proving easy to back.  It’s bad enough trying to fathom between two or more Richard Fahey horses in any race, but particularly so in an event for juveniles!  Either way, Piccothepack and Immokolee are not going to offer value for money anyway (particularly from a Placepot perspective) so I will stick to my original thoughts.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed at odds of 4/9 and Evens to date.

 

2.35: I talked about two runners in a race in the previous event for Richard Fahey as usually proving to be a tough ask and this race is no different, even though his horses are split at either end of the market at the time of writing.  To make matters worse, there was more interest is Richard’s outsider SHAZZAB than for EXHORT overnight, the potential favourite for the contest.  Either way, Richard is on a hat trick in the contest and with recent showers having gone against Alfa McGuire (2/2 at the track on fast ground), I’ll opt for Richard’s pair against the other four contenders in this ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include three winners at 13/8, 2/1 & 9/4***.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

2/2—Alfa McGuire (2 x good to fim)

 

3.10: Eleven of the fifteen toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones, statistics which include all five (7/1-13/2-4/1-4/1-2/1*) winners. Unfortunately just the one horse is eliminated from my Placepot thoughts via the weight trend, leaving SONG OF SUMMER (my each way call in the contest), ONEFOOTINPARADISE and SCENIC RIVER to carry my Placepot cash.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals thus far, statistics which include one (2/1) winner.

 

3.45: Four-year-olds come into the contest on a four-timer and the pick of this year’s quartet of vintage representatives appear to be RITA’S MAN, LIQUID GOLD and BOLLIN TED.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this ‘Rapid Lad’ handicap have changed whereby the contest as it stands now has just five renewals to consider, with three of the seven market leaders finishing in the frame (exact science) – no winners.  Rapid Lad (the race is named after the grand servant) won 12 races at Beverley between 1983 and 1989 during an unbeaten record at the venue.  Strange but true for such a prolific scorer, is the fact that Rapid Lad failed to win anywhere else, other than at Beverley.

Record of the five course winners in field:

1/2—Liquid Gold (good to firm)

1/2—Metronomic (good)

3/6—Bollin Ted (2 x good to firm)

1/2—Paddy’s Rock (good)

2/10—John Caesar (2 x soft)

 

4.20: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.  Call me cynical by all means but I find it ‘strange’ that all five course winners have been drawn against each other in the first division of this event, or is my comment ‘unworthy’?  The pick of the four-year-olds in the second heat could prove to be VIGEE LE BRUN according to the gospel of yours truly, though money for INFLEXIBALL overnight suggests that John Mackie’s raider could bring an end to the four-year-old domination of this event in recent years.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame (no winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 20th September

SANDOWN – SEPTEMBER 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £110.90 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 2 (African Friend), 4 (Artscape) & 5 (Coastal Cyclone)

Leg 2 (2.00): 9 (Kitaabaat) & 5 (Falcon Eye)

Leg 3 (2.35): 3 (Il Primo Sole) & 1 (Last Voyage)

Leg 4 (3.05): 3 (Laidback Romeo), 7 (D’bai) & 5 (Richard Pankhurst)

Leg 5 (3.40): 8 (Clearly), 7 (Dynamic) & 3 (Madeleine Bond)

Leg 6 (4.15): 2 (Stone The Crows), 7 (Rake’s Progress) & 11 (Makkadangdang)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: Some housekeeping to attend to before I commence play as 32/35 winners at this correspond meeting during the last five years have won at a top price of 9/1, stats which include no less than 15 successful favourites! Even the other three gold medallists ‘only’ started at 14/1 and 16/1 (twice). Three of the four winners of the opening event have carried a minimum weight of 9-1 thus far, stats which eliminate the bottom four horses in the handicap if you believe in trends which by now (after 17 years of daily advice), you do.  The pick of the relevant ‘survivors’ will hopefully prove to be AFRICAN FRIEND, ARTSCAPE and COASTAL CYCLONE, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Four favourites to date and we have yet to see any of them finishing in the frame!  That said, all four winners have, at least, been returned in single figures (9/1, 7/1, 5/1 & 4/1).

 

2.00: Owen Burrows introduced a nice looking prospect to winning effect at Yarmouth yesterday and stable companion KITAABAAT should at least ‘trouble the judge’ at the third time of asking in this grade/company.  Owen’s Dansili colt has only been beaten by an aggregate of two and a quarter lengths thus far and Jim Crowley’s mount should reach the frame at the very least.  FALCON EYE ‘splits the books’ here, ranging between 10/3 and 5/1 as I write though either way, Charlie’s Appleby’s once raced juvenile looks set to become competitive at the business end of proceedings after a decent enough debut effort at Newmarket a couple of months back.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

2.35: This event has already turned in to a ‘win only’ contest with just the four runners now set to face the starter.  I often include all contenders in these win only events in the hope that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails though in this instance, all the overnight money has been spilt between IL PRIMO SOLE and LAST VOYAGE.  Richard Hughes appears to have a nice type in Ragstone Road but he meets two strong rivals on this occasion.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/3 (John Gosden trained) favourite duly obliged before last year’s 15/8 market leader failed to reach the frame in a short field event.  New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

3.05: Seven of the eight winners of this Listed event have scored at a top price of 9/2, whilst three-year-olds have claimed four of the last six contests.  Clive Cox is surely in the form of his life I would tentatively suggest, as his last thirteen winners have prevailed via a 46% strike rate!  Clive saddles LAIDBACK ROMEO here at an each way price which was around the 12/1 mark when writing this column.  It’s worth noting (perhaps) that one of two Clive Cox scorers on this card during the study period was returned at 16/1. Clive’s only other runner today is an 8/1 chance at Yarmouth (no runners at all tomorrow) whereby an each way double might prove fruitful.  Others of interest as dawn breaks over the City of Bristol this morning include D’BAI and the slightly enigmatic John Gosden raider RICHARD PANKHURST.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via eight renewals during the last decade.  Seven of the ten favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

2/6—Laidback Romeo (2 x good to firm)

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1/2—Khafoo Shememi (good to firm)

1/1—Larchmont Lad (good to soft)

 

3.40: Nine of the last twelve winners of this Class 4 handicap event for fillies have carried a maximum weight of 8-13, including two gold medallists which were returned at 33/1 & 16/1.  CLEARLY very much looks the pick of the four qualifiers via the weight trends though that said, DYNAMIC is a useful rival sitting just three pounds further up the handicap.  There is an old saying that if you fall off your bike when learning to ride, you should get straight back on and that is the case here with the underrated claimer Georgia Cox climbing back aboard MADELEINE BOND after their ‘disagreement’ shortly after the start at Yarmouth the last day.  This trio will get us safely through to the Placepot finale if we were live going into the fifth leg.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have won at 7/2, 3/1 & 15/8 alongside a 6/1 co favourite during the last twelve years though that said, the last four jollies have finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Al Nafoorah (good)

1/1—Finale (good to soft)

 

4.15: MAKKADANGDANG represents the yard of Andrew Balding who has saddled three winners at this fixture during the last five years which were all returned as favourites of their respective events.  No trainer can equal Andrew’s figure though unless there is a dramatic plunge on the bottom weight, Andrew’s Mastercraftsman gelding should be returned in double figures which is worth a minimum stake win and place wager from my viewpoint.  That said, the last ten winners have carried 8-12 or more to victory which also brings other each way types such as STONE THE CROWS and RAKE’S PROGRESS into the equation.

Favourite factor: The last eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 though just one successful market leader was registered during the period.  Six of the last 10 favourites have snared Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Jupiter Light (good to firm)

1/3—Mister Blue Sky (good to soft)

1/1—The Statesman (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Richard Hannon (9/56 – loss of 5 points)

6—John Gosden (4/30 – loss of 10 points)

4—Charlie Hills (3/21 (+3)

4—Hugo Palmer (0/11)

3—Charlie Appleby (2/11 – loss of 7 points)

3—Andrew Balding (1/24 - +17)

3—Harry Dunlop (0/7)

2—Henry Candy (2/11 – loss of 4 points)

2—Roger Charlton (4/15 – loss of 5 points)

2—Simon Crisford (3/6 +10)

2—Ed Dunlop (2/11 – slight profit)

2—Ed de Giles (0/2)

2—Philip Hide (0/5)

2—Stuart Kittow (0/3)

2—Roger Teal (0/4)

2—Roger Varian (6/15 +2)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Beverley: £54.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Yarmouth: £12.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kelso: £198.70 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday September 3rd

SANDOWN – SEPTEMBER 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £172.10 (4 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unpalced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Kasbah), 1 (Monsieur Joe) & 4 (Majestic Hero)

Leg 2 (2.25): 4 (Maser) & 5 (Persur)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Intimation), 11 (On Her Toes) & 12 (Tisbutadream)

Leg 4 (3.35): 9 (Shabbah) & 10 (Across Dubai)

Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Cheeky Rascal), 1 (Lethal Lunch) & 4 (Barford)

Leg 6 (4.45): 11 (Najashee), 9 (High Draw) & 10 (Al Nafoorah)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Seven of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-1, whilst the relevant nine events have failed to register a single winning favourite.  The weight stats eliminate the bottom four horses (of ten in total) from my enquiries. Shamson was returned as the well beaten favourite in this event twelve months ago and it might be worth taking the six-year-old on with KASBAH, MONSIEUR JOE and MAJESTIC HERO this time around.

Favourite factor: Only two of the last eight favourites have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/3—Shamson (good to firm)

1/1—Majestic Hero (soft)

2/2—Bahamian Sunrise (good & soft)

 

2.25: I gave 33/1 winner VINATAGER an each way squeak before registering his recent soft ground success though of course, the ground will be much quicker this time around.  It remains to be seen how David Menuisier’s Mastercraftsman colt handles the conditions, though there was plenty to like about the manner of his success on the July course at Newmarket.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s MASER found some trouble in running but was still good enough to snare the bronze medal in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, having previously won on debut at Goodwood on good ground.  PURSER also has to enter the equation following a sound effort when scoring at Newbury on his first day at school.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won the Solario Stakes during the last decade, whilst nine gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 11/2.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/2—Connect (good to soft)

 

3.00: Nine of the last 11 gold medallists in this Atalanta Stakes (for fillies and mares) have hailed from the three-year-old ranks, with vintage representatives at 8/5 this time around before the form book is consulted.  Sir Michael Stoute has his team in fine form and having won three of the last eight renewals of this Group 3 event, Michael has a definite chance of improving his recent tally having offered INTIMATION the green light.  That said, connections of the three-year-old course winners ON HER TOES and TISBUTADREAM will not mind the fast ground for their respective representatives.

Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have prevailed, as have five of the last eight, albeit those stats include a 13/8 market leader who shared the spoils via a dead heat back in 2013.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—On Her Toes (good to firm)

1/1—Tisbutadream (good to firm)

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3.35: The last five winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 whereby the top five horses in the handicap might not represent value for money in the contest, if you follow the recent weight trend.   SHABBAH is on offer at 11/1 at the time of writing and I have already tipped my win and place toe into the murky waters, believing that Ryan Moore’s mount can gain a Placepot position at the very least.  Others to catch my eye include ACROSS DUBAI and hat trick seeker THUNDERING BLUE.

Favourite factor: Five renewals had slipped by since a winning favourite had been recorded before last year’s 9/4 market leader repaired some of the damage on behalf of favourite backers.  Only two of the last six favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/4—Master Carpenter (good to firm)

1/1—Euginio (good to firm)

1/2—Silver Ghost (good to soft)

1/1—Shabbah (good)

1/2—Mutaakez (good)

 

4.10: The weight stats reveal that the bottom two horses in the handicap might struggle to score as the last seven gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 8-13 to victory.  That leaves us with six horses to assess, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CHEEKY RASCAL, LETHAL LUNCH and BARFORD.  The trio are listed in marginal order of preference, with Livingstone’s Quest only overlooked because of the heavy ground which was in evidence when he scored at Ffos Las last time out.

Favourite factor: Only two of the eight favourites have troubled the judge from a Placepot perspective since back to back favourites obliged in 2011/12.  Indeed, those two successful market leaders are the only favourites to have won during the last decade.

 

4.45: Owen Burrows can do very little wrong just now and the trainer has seemingly found a fine opportunity for his Invincible Spirit colt NAJASHEE to successfully follow up his recent fast ground Haydock.  Karl Burke had made a habit of raiding this venue successfully this term, whereby the chance of HIGH DRAW is respected, whilst AL NAFOORAH completes my trio against the other nine contenders in the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: Five of the last six winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, with three clear market leaders having scored alongside a 9/2 joint favourite during the period.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Grand Inquisitor (good to firm)

2/18—Directorship (good to firm & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed (where relevant) by their winners on the corresponding (August 20th) card year:

5—Richard Hannon

4—John Gosden (6/4* last year)

3—David Elsworth

3—Eve Johnson Houghton

3—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Michael Attwater

2—Andrew Balding (9/4*)

2—Clive Cox

2—Ed Dunlop

2—Richard Fahey

2—William Haggas

2—Philip Hide

2—Brian Meehan

2—David Menuisier

2—Rod Millman

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

77 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Beverley: £8.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Chester: £48.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Hamilton: This is a new meeting

Newton Abbot: £56.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting

 

Placepot pointers – Thursday 17th August

BEVERLEY – AUGUST 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £2,984.20 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 3 (Elnadim Star) & 9 (Zip Along)

Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Gold Stone), 7 (La Belle Mayson) & 4 (Dandy’s Beano)

Leg 3 (3.10): 7 (Go Now Go Now), 10 (Arabian Jazz) & 2 (Poet’s Dawn)

Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Knightbridge Liam), 4 (Sakhalin Star) & 3 (Scruffy McGuffy)

Leg 5 (4.10): 9 (Pearl Noir), 6 (Noah Amor) & 7 (Roaring Rory)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Maghfoor) & 9 (Cray)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: It can only be hoped that Kevin Ryan’s raider ELNADIM STAR will run better than Dandy’s Beano in the opening event here at Beverley yesterday who was too green to do himself justice on behalf of the stable.  Up until that Point, Kevin has saddled twelve two-year-old winners this season and we hope the experience gained by Elnadim Star will help to give us a better run for our money today.  Should that not be the case, connections of ZIP ALONG will probably land the spoils.

Favourite factor: As was the case on Wednesday, the first race at Beverley is a new race via the ‘Novice factor’.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/2—Our Little Pony (good to firm)

 

2.40: Kevin Ryan again takes centre stage having declared his course and distance runner up GOLD STONE who should go one better with the experience gained at the track last month.  24 days sounds like the right amount of time between first and second runs on the juvenile front and I would be a tad disappointed should Kevin’s Havana Gold filly fails to snare the swag.  Kevin has also declared yesterday’s ‘flop’ DANDY’S BEANO which makes for interesting reading.  Kevin Stott’s mount did not help herself by hanging towards the rail and if able to keep a straighter line today, who knows what the outcome could be.  LA BELLE MAYSON is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: As was the case on Wednesday, the second race is the second division of the opening event on the card.  Am I repeating myself?

 

3.10: Mark Johnston has won three of the last seven renewals when represented, whereby the chance of Mark’s narrow recent Catterick winner GO NOW GO NOW is respected.  ARABIAN JAZZ has attracted win and place money overnight by the look of things at the time of writing, whilst course and distance winner POET’S DAWN cannot be left out of the equation in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Two of the last five favourites have obliged, albeit they are the only successful favourites to be recorded during the last twelve years.  That said, the biggest priced winner during the study period was sent off at 9/1.  Half of the favourites (7/14) secured toteplacepot positions via twelve renewals during the period.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/5—Poet’s Dawn (good to firm)

 

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3.40: Three-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals with KNIGHTSBRIDGE LIAM being the only relevant declaration on this occasion.  I doubt that Mick Easterby would be overly into ‘trends’ though either way, my self-confessed ‘anorak’ tendencies demand that I include Mick’s Lilbourne Lad gelding in the mix.  If ever KNIGHTEBRIDGE LIAM is going to get this kind of (twelve furlong) trip, it will be under today’s projected conditions I’ll wager.   SAKHALIN STAR and SCRUFFY MCGUFFY are two other each way options to consider.

Favourite factor: Nine renewals have slipped by since the last (3/1) favourite obliged, though all nine contests to date have been won by horses returned at 9/1 or less.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the third race:

3/9—Lean On Pete (2 x good + good to firm)

1/5—Cool Music (good to firm)

2/9—Tin Pan Alley (good & good to firm)

1/2—Chauvelin (good to firm)

 

4.10: The withdrawal of Fujin has hopefully left the way clear for my trio against the field to gain a couple of Placepot positions between them, namely PEARL NOAH, NOAH AMOR and ROARING RORY.  Horses grabbing the far rail were well to the fore yesterday, as were horses ‘on the pace’ in the majority of races whereby the respective stall positions of 4-6-1 (12 runners remain) should aid and abet our chances.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Beverley programme.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:

1/4—First Bombardment (good)

1/5—Crosse Fire (good to firm)

1/3—Fujin (good to firm)

1/2—Astrophysics (good to firm)

1/1—Noah Amor (good)

2/6—Roaring Rory (2 x good to firm)

3/8—Bond Bombshell (3 x good to firm)

2/8—Pearl Noir (good & good to firm)

1/21—Tinsill (good)

 

4.40: Five three-year-olds have prevailed via the last eleven contests, though trainers seemingly took leave of their senses last year as no vintage representatives were declared.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that MAGHFOOR and CRAY should land the pot between them if were are live going into the finale.  ATTENTION SEEKER is the obvious danger to the junior representatives this time around.

Favourite factor: Just two market leaders have won via the last eleven contests though to paint the full picture, it's only right to tell you that eleven of the last twelve gold medallists have scored at a top price of 13/2.  Seven of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Attention Seeker (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers who have saddled more than one winner on the corresponding Beverley card on Wednesday during the last five years – alongside the starting prices of their gold medallists and number of runners today:

5 winners—Mark Johnston (7/2, 31/, 5/2, 7/4* & 1/2*) – 2 runners

3 winners—Tim Easterby (16/1, 14/1 & 7/1) – 6 runners

3 winners—Richard Fahey (11/2, 2/1* & 7/4*) – 7 runners

2 winners—Brian Ellison (11/2 & 4/1) – 2 runners

2 winners—David O’Meara (13/2 & 7/2) – 8 runners

2 winners—Tracey Waggott (15/2 & 6/1) – 2 runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: This is basically a new fixture, aside from a couple of transferred races

Salisbury: £33.50 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Yarmouth: £175.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Fontwell:  This is basically a new fixture, aside from a couple of transferred races

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 16th August

BEVERLEY - AUGUST 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £47.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 7 (Dandy’s Beano) & 5 (Tale Of Tails)

Leg 2 (2.40): 4 (Kyllachy Dragon) & 1 (Wensley)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Baileys Excelerate), 1 (International Man) & 4 (Carlini)

Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Talent Scout), 2 (Merdon Castle) & 4 (Dream Team)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Sunglider), 1 (Hollywood Road) & 4 (Maraakib)

Leg 6 (4.40): 7 (Liquid Gold), 5 (Inflexiball) & 2 (Perceived)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Kevin Ryan has already saddled a dozen two-year-old winners this season and with course and distance winner Arcavello carrying a penalty, Kevin’s DANDYS BEANO is the call.  Connections of Kevin’s Dandy Man filly might have most to fear from TALE OF TAILS whose trainer Brian Ellison has saddled four of his last five runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: This (being a Novice event in general terms) is a new event with which to open proceedings at Beverley on the first day of their two day fixture.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1--Arcavello (good to soft)

 

2.40: The 10/1 trade press quote about KYLLACHY DRAGON looks particularly fanciful this morning with Iain Jardine’s raider possibly being sent off at half of those odds later today.  Penalised WENSLEY makes a little more appeal than the top weight in the first race given the nature of his Pontefract win at the third time of asking.  The success for the Poet’s Voice colt came on the back of a fine runner up effort here Beverley under fast conditions and as the victory was recorded on soft ground, weather conditions don’t appear to be a worry for connections either way.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening contest.

 

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3.10: Any horse with the word Baileys involved in the name can usually be regarded as ‘Johnston property’ and BAILEY’S EXCELERATE represents Mark and his team who need some winners, if only to help to erase the horror of the loss of their fine thoroughbred Permian at the weekend.  Mark’s Excelebration colt made a good impression at the first time of asking at Musselburgh and there is every chance that Joe Fanning could ride another winner for his boss.  Better drawn types such as INTERNATIONAL MAN and CARLINI should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Yet another Novice race whereby no history is in place.

 

3.40: TALENT SCOUT has recorded all of his five victories here on the Westwood under fast conditions and you will have more idea later in the day than yours truly in terms of the state of the ground.  Nine runners are set to line up in this event but in terms of likely winners, that number can be reduced to four, at least until we look at the favourite factor below.  Although Chiswick Bey in an eleven time winner, those victories average out at one in seven, whereby the 6/4 general quote this morning makes little appeal.  I’ll opt for MERDON CASTLE and DREAM TEAM to follow TALENT SCOUT home if conditions are quick enough by the time that flag fall arrives.

Favourite factor: Three of the nine favourites have prevailed though the other winners scored at 50/1-12/1-11/1-4/1-7/2, just to keep your feet well and truly on the ground.  Six of the eleven favourites have finished in the fame this far (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the third contest:

5/17--Talent Scout (5 x good to firm)

1/5—Chiswick Bey (good to firm)

 

4.10: Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-3 or more, whilst five-year-olds have secured four of the last nine contests, even though vintage representative were only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago. 20/1 chance MARAAKIB is the lone five-year-old this time around and though David O’Meara’s raider is the supposed ‘rag’ in the field, I’m hoping that the trend works out from a Placepot perstive at least.  More logical winners include stable companion SUNGLIDER and HOLLYWOOD ROAD.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last sixteen winners were returned in double figures, with prices ranging from 10/1 to 50/1.  Six of the last twelve market leaders have finished in the money.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event on the card:

2/2—Sunglider (good & good to firm)

 

4.40: Five-year-olds have ruled the waves in the Placepot finale as well of late, vintage representatives have secured five of the last eight contests. Hat trick seeker INFLEXIBALL and PERCEIVED are the two relevant entries this time around, though from a win perspective at least, LIQUID GOLD could be prove to be the ‘improver’ in the field.

Favourite factor: Two of the last five favourites have scored, though they are the only market leaders to have prevailed during the last eleven years.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/10--Mysterial (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers who have saddled more than one winner on the corresponding Beverley card on Wednesday during the last five years – alongside the starting prices of their gold medallists and number of runners today:

4 winners—Mark Johnston (4/1, 2/1*, 7/4* & 5/6*) – 4 runners

2 winners—Karl Burke (4/1 & 3/1*) – No runners until Friday

2 winners—Scott Dixon (18/1 & 16/1) – 1 runner

2 winners—Mick Easterby (12/1 & 5/1) – 2 runners

2 winners—Tim Easterby (9/2 & 5/2*) – 3 runners

2 winners—David Loughnane (11/2 & 5/1) – None – 1 tomorrow

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Salisbury: £32.70 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Bangor: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

Newton Abbot: £81.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced2

Kempton: £233.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 16th August 2017

Tuesday's Result :

8.10 Chelmsford - Golden Goal @ 5/2 BOG - 6th at 9/4 : Held up mid-division, ridden over 1f out, soon switched right, kept on same pace...

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Beverley

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Regal Mirage @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Having shown very little in 3 maidens at 7f/1m, the step up to handicap racing over longer trips seems to have worked its magic (or perhaps that was the plan all along?).

Either way, this 3 yr old gelding has now finished 31111 in five handicap starts, all at 9f and beyond and whilst it might well look an easy/lazy pick, I do believe he's got every chance based on his suitability to the task ahead.

In handicaps, he has 4 wins and a place from 5 starts, all at 1m1f and beyond and all in fields of 8-14 runners, and based on what faces him here, he is...

  • 4/4 after a break of less than 30 days
  • 3/4 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3/3 when priced at 4/1 or shorter
  • 2/3 when ridden by David Allan
  • 2/2 at 1m3f/1m4f
  • 2/2 at Class 5
  • 2/2 on Good ground
  • 2/2 going right handed
  • and 2/2 when sent off as favourite

...enough to justify... a 1pt win bet on Regal Mirage @ 11/4 BOG which was available with Bet365, BetVictor and Betway at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!