Apologies for a lack of Insights for Monday, I was at a surprise wedding on Sunday, but I'm back now and The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where Casilli would be of most initial obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...
- 5.20 Beverley
- 8.05 Newton Abbot
- 8.25 Newbury
- 8.40 Newton Abbot
And I think I'll have a look at the 6yr old mare Casilli from The Shortlist. She's the sole female in the 4.15 Beverley, which is an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...
Bashful is the form horse here, having won his last two, but only Strawman, Freak Out and Shine On Brendan are winless in at least five (9, 9 & 10 respectively to be precise) outings.
Joint top weights Westernesse and Strawman are the only two to have raced at this grade last time out, as featured runner Casilli now drops down from Class 3 with the remainder of the field all stepping up from Class 5. This will be Bobby's Blessing's handicap debut after just two starts over 7½f, including a win here on debut, but this is a big step up in trip.
Westernesse and Shine On Brendan have won at neither track nor trip, but Bashful and Freak Out are distance winners at Newcastle, whilst Strawman, Casilli (of course) and Frankendael are all former course and distance winners.
Strawman and Bashful both raced as recently as last Wednesday and the entire field have been out in the last four weeks, so there shouldn't be any rustiness on display. Instant Expert will, of course, show why Casilli is on The Shortlist, but it also tells us that half of the field have won on good to firm ground, just three have won at Class 4 on turf and that a couple of these have a really poor record at the trip...
So the concerns here are...
GOING : Strawman, Freak Out & Shine On Brendan
CLASS : Freak Out
DISTANCE : Bashful & Freak Out
And before I even look at the place stats, I'm crossing Freak Out off the list! And having looked at the place stats...
...I'm also ruling Frankendael out of my thoughts, leaving me with runners in stalls 1 and 2 plus 5 to 8 inclusive for a contest that has, in the past, favoured those drawn in the lower half of the draw...
...which wouldn't normally be great news for Casilli drawn widest in #8, but those races show that horses drawn higher than stall 7 have done pretty well too...
Our stats for these races say that pace is more of a deal breaker than the draw, though, with a clear sign that those willing to set the fractions ultimately get rewarded...
Prominent runners do better than average too, but any further back in the field makes life difficult, which won't be good news for the likes of Casilli if her last four runs are anything to go by...
However, here lies a problem, because they can't all run to a pace score of 2.50 or lower, one (or more) of them will have to set the tempo of the race and if they go at a dawdle, then those most used to coming from off the pace might well be the ones to side with.
Summary
The draw stats didn't really give me much help, whilst the pace data suggests the possibility of a falsely run race. However, I can see why Westernesse is the current 5/2 favourite. He does tend to race up with the pace (ignore LTO, he stumbled out of the stalls and was awkwardly away), he's got a good low draw and has eight top three finishes on the bounce.
Do I want to back him at 5/2? Not really, even though he's the likeliest winner in my eyes. To be honest, I'd want him to be a point (or more!) longer in the market, so I'll leave him alone. That, of course, doesn't mean that you have to. Bobby's Blessing is next best at a high of 7/2 and that also seems a bit skinny for a horse with just two runs under his belt and now up in trip by 2.5 furlongs, so I'll skip him too in favour of an 11/1 E/W bet with Skybet (10's elsewhere) on The Shortlist horse Casilli. Yeah, she's not in prime form, but her draw is fine, her hold-up approach might not be horrific in a pace-less contest and she's best suited by conditions. She was a little more than two lengths outside the placings here over course and distance last time out, but is now 2lbs and 1 class lower here and might well be the value option.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
