Racing Insights, Monday 24/07/23 geegeez.co.uk

Sorry for being later than usual this evening, I've spent much of my weekend helping my travel clients affected by the terrible fires on Rhodes (yes, I'm a travel agent away from the racing, so if you need a holiday, I'm your man!), but I'm back with you all now with a preview for Monday.

The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

6.10 Ballinrobe
7.30 Beverley
8.20 Windsor
8.30 Beverley

Of the three UK free races, the first seems to have biggest spread of pace based on the field's last four runs, as this is how the runners in the 7.30 Beverley have approached their most recent contests...

The race itself is a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-hand 7½f on soft ground that is already heavy in places and here's how they'll line up...

Revoquable won here over course and distance last time out, albeit on good to firm ground, but it does mean that he's the only one coming here off the back of a win. Stoney Lane has also won here over course and distance, whilst How Bizarre has won over 1m½f on this track. None of the other have won at either trip nor track.

All Dunn makes a yard debut for Harriet Bethell less than a fortnight after a good runner-up finish at Wolverhampton on his final run for Jamie Osborne and aside from Revoquable's win LTO, he's the only one to have made the frame last time around, but Ey Up It's Jazz has won two from three and How Bizarre won two starts ago.

Floats On Air might need the run after a break of almost four months and all of his rivals here have raced in the last 24 days with Ey Up It's Jazz have had just a week's rest. These are all confirmed Class 6 runners and none raced at a higher level last time.

Instant Expert paints a typical Class 6 picture of very few wins, but one of them has won on soft/heavy ground already and all bar two have won at Class 6. If you change the parameters on Instant Expert, you'll find that How Bizarre has won at Class 4 and Class 5, whilst Bold Territories and Stoney Lane are also former Class 5 winners...

Ey Up It's Jazz is the clear eye-catcher, but with really poor win figures for most of the field (anything in red from 10+ races is poor), I thin we're going to need some help from the place stats...

...which still aren't brilliant, but do suggest that some of these might well have enough in their lockers to make the frame. Sadly, I'm underwhelmed by the numbers for Floats On Air and/or Congress, so they're out of the picture for me, as I go and look to see if the draw might have an effect on the outcome here...

...but there doesn't seem to be much in it. The PRB3 figures pretty much say the same, but do suggest that the lower you're drawn, the slightly better chance you seem to have...

It's not a huge bias, but ignoring the clear anomaly that is stall 8, the PRB3 figure for stall 1 (0.54) is 108% that of stalls 6 & 7 (0.50), so there's a slight advantage there, which could be good for Revoquable & All Dunn in the two lowest stalls. And now back to where we started, our daily free feature, the PACE. We know from the top of the page that the runners have approached their most recent contests like this...

...and if we look at how those Beverley races we used for the draw stats have panned out...

...you'd probably want to focus on those with an average pace score of at least 2.50, although I'm interested in Revoquable's last two runs, where he raced prominently leading to a course and distance win last time out, suggesting he'll race that way again here. Bold Territories misses the cut here.

Summary

I've disregarded three already, leaving me with six to consider, from which I think Revoquable is the one to beat. He's drawn well, won over C&D recently and should race prominently, he has made the frame in tricky conditions before and I think he'll make it back-to back wins here. We're not getting rich at the 10pm price of 3/1, but it's probably a fair price.

All Dunn is the 5/2 fav and whilst I do like his chances here, that's too short for me, but he should be there or thereabouts. The one I do like from an E/W perspective is the 11/1 How Bizarre, he has a win and a runner-up finish from his last three outings, has won at both Class 4 and Class 5, has a consistent record at making the frame under these conditions and will be the likely front runner here. As long as only two pass him, we'll be fine!

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