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Stat of the Day, 9th October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

3.20 Stratford : Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Mid-division, headway 2 out, soon chasing leaders, kept on same pace approaching last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chitra @ 5/1 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 6, Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Good ground, worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 2yr old filly has finished 121 in Nursery races so far, all over 6f and all at Class 6, including landing a big-field (19 ran!) contest LTO at relatively nearby Redcar 13 days ago. She was better than the half length margin of victory would suggest that day, as he was prominent throughout and quickly asserted control with a furlong to run, looking like she had plenty in hand.

She's the only distance winner in this field whose career tally to date stands at just 3 wins from 65, of which she is 2 from 6!

Her trainer Daniel Kubler sends her here today in a bid to improve an already decent record with LTO winners who are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 8.78pts (+48.8% ROI) when sent off in handicap races at odds of 5/1 and shorter over the last four years. Of those 18, Class 6 runners are 3 from 7 and jockey Tony Hamilton is 1 from 2, but more relevant today are the following from those 18 LTO winners...

  • Daniel's only runner at the track : 6/15 (40%) for 8.38pts (+55.8%)
  • less than 3 weeks rest : 6/15 (40%) for 6.24pts (+41.6%)
  • in fields of 7-12 runners : 7/13 (53.8%) for 13.78pts (+106%)
  • same trip as LTO win : 4/10 (40%) for 7.76pts (+77.6%)
  • same class as LTO win : 4/10 (40%) for 5.26pts (+52.6%)
  • and at the same class and trip as the LTO win : 3/5 (60%) for 8.48pts (+169.6%)

Now, Daniel also has just one runner at Brighton today, who is another LTO winner, also priced shorter than 5/1 in a Class 6 handicap. She also runs in a 12-runner field at the same class (and track, too) as her last win and with Daniel having a decent record at Brighton, I'd not dissuade you from a small punt on Nyala at 4/1 BOG in the 4.35 race...

...but my main selection is... a 1pt win bet on Chitra @ 5/1 BOG, a price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.35 Chester : Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Raced keenly, chased leader on inside until 3f out, handy 3rd, switched right and stayed on inside final furlong, 2nd again final 50 yards, flattered by proximity to comfortable winner) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good ground, worth £3493 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is arguably carrying enough weight today (more on that shortly), but he does appear to be bringing the best form to the table for this contest, having finished 24122 in his last five starts on turf. He handles pretty much all ground conditions and of his four turf wins to date...

  • all 4 were after a short break of 1 to 5 weeks
  • 3 were at Class 6
  • 3 were over today's 1m4f trip
  • 3 were on left handed tracks
  • and 1 (from just two rides) were with today's jockey, Theodore Ladd (who claims 5lbs)

Gong back to the weight issue, Albert Boy's best form is off marks in the high 50's, so today's 61 is probably as high as I'd be comfortable with, although he did win off 68 in the past, so I'm pleased to see a 5lb claimer in the saddle. This effectively puts him 2lbs lighter than when beaten by just 2 lengths LTO over half a furlong shorter, staying on well and closing in late on.

I had it in my mind that trainer Scott Dixon had done well at placing these 5lb claimer jockeys in the past, so I took a closer look and saw that since the start of 2013, his Class 6 runners were 13 from 71 (18.3% SR) for 22.5pts (+31.7% ROI) when partnered by such riders and those 71 included of relevance today...

  • at 11/1 and shorter : 13/46 (28.3%) for 47.5pts (+103.3%)
  • 4 to 15 days since last run : 8/41 (19.5%) for 23.5pts (+57.2%)
  • 2017/18 : 10/40 (25) for 36.53pts (+91.4%)
  • on the Flat  :9/36 (25%) for 33.3pts (+92.4%)
  • August - October : 8/259 (27.6%) for 27.8pts (+96%)
  • 5/1 and shorter : 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.6pts (+115.4%)
  • Catterick : 4/16 925%) for 10pts (+62.6%)
  • LTO runner-up  :3/10 (30%) for 6.4pts (+64%)
  • Theo Ladd in the saddle : 2/5 940%) for 9.35pts (+187%)
  • beaten by 1 to 2 lengths LTO : 2/3 966.6%) for 9.36pts (+312%)

And as for this promising claimer, Theo Ladd, you might be surprised to read that he's actually been profitable to follow blindly so far in his short (170 rides) career, winning 24 times (14.1% SR). A £10 stake on all his rides to date would have yielded £464 profit at an ROI of 27.3% and his stats include...

  • on the Flat : 18/100 (18%) for 62.5pts (+62.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 16/92 (17.4%) for 58.2pts (+63.3%)
  • at Class 6 on the Flat : 12/52 (23.1%) for 53.9pts (+103.6%)
  • using his 5lb claim : 5/32 (15.6%) for 10.2pts (+31.7%)
  • at Catterick : 2/12 916.6%) for 2pts (+16.6%)
  • at Class 6 on the Flat using his 5lb claim : 2/6 (33.3%) for 9.06pts (+151%)
  • and at Class 6 on the Flat using his 5lb claim here at Catterick : 1/2 (50%) for 2.56pts (+128%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 6.30pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.35 Chester : Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Raced keenly, chased leader on inside until 3f out, handy 3rd, switched right and stayed on inside final furlong, 2nd again final 50 yards, flattered by proximity to comfortable winner) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good ground, worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is arguably carrying enough weight today (more on that shortly), but he does appear to be bringing the best form to the table for this contest, having finished 24122 in his last five starts on turf. He handles pretty much all ground conditions and of his four turf wins to date...

  • all 4 were after a short break of 1 to 5 weeks
  • 3 were at Class 6
  • 3 were over today's 1m4f trip
  • 3 were on left handed tracks
  • and 1 (from just two rides) were with today's jockey, Theodore Ladd (who claims 5lbs)

Gong back to the weight issue, Albert Boy's best form is off marks in the high 50's, so today's 61 is probably as high as I'd be comfortable with, although he did win off 68 in the past, so I'm pleased to see a 5lb claimer in the saddle. This effectively puts him 2lbs lighter than when beaten by just 2 lengths LTO over half a furlong shorter, staying on well and closing in late on.

I had it in my mind that trainer Scott Dixon had done well at placing these 5lb claimer jockeys in the past, so I took a closer look and saw that since the start of 2013, his Class 6 runners were 13 from 71 (18.3% SR) for 22.5pts (+31.7% ROI) when partnered by such riders and those 71 included of relevance today...

  • at 11/1 and shorter : 13/46 (28.3%) for 47.5pts (+103.3%)
  • 4 to 15 days since last run : 8/41 (19.5%) for 23.5pts (+57.2%)
  • 2017/18 : 10/40 (25) for 36.53pts (+91.4%)
  • on the Flat  :9/36 (25%) for 33.3pts (+92.4%)
  • August - October : 8/259 (27.6%) for 27.8pts (+96%)
  • 5/1 and shorter : 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.6pts (+115.4%)
  • Catterick : 4/16 925%) for 10pts (+62.6%)
  • LTO runner-up  :3/10 (30%) for 6.4pts (+64%)
  • Theo Ladd in the saddle : 2/5 940%) for 9.35pts (+187%)
  • beaten by 1 to 2 lengths LTO : 2/3 966.6%) for 9.36pts (+312%)

And as for this promising claimer, Theo Ladd, you might be surprised to read that he's actually been profitable to follow blindly so far in his short (170 rides) career, winning 24 times (14.1% SR). A £10 stake on all his rides to date would have yielded £464 profit at an ROI of 27.3% and his stats include...

  • on the Flat : 18/100 (18%) for 62.5pts (+62.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 16/92 (17.4%) for 58.2pts (+63.3%)
  • at Class 6 on the Flat : 12/52 (23.1%) for 53.9pts (+103.6%)
  • using his 5lb claim : 5/32 (15.6%) for 10.2pts (+31.7%)
  • at Catterick : 2/12 916.6%) for 2pts (+16.6%)
  • at Class 6 on the Flat using his 5lb claim : 2/6 (33.3%) for 9.06pts (+151%)
  • and at Class 6 on the Flat using his 5lb claim here at Catterick : 1/2 (50%) for 2.56pts (+128%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 6.30pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th June

HAYDOCK – JUNE 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Sea Youmzain) & 2 (Podemos)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Cribbs Causeway), 5 (God Given) & 4 (Fosun)

Leg 3 (3.25): 7 (Final Venture), 9 (Muthmir) & 4 (Blue De Vega)

Leg 4 (4.00): 3 (Emmaus), 2 (Dutch Connection) & 1 (D’Bai)

Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Calder Prince) & 2 (Mickey)

Leg 6 (5.10): 1 (Last Page), 3 (Breaking Records) & 2 (Choice Encounter)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: SEA YOUMZAIN represents Mark Johnston’s yard which is approaching ‘boiling point’ now and with support coming in for his recent Nottingham winner, Mark’s Sea The Stars raider can follow up successfully. PODEMOS is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card with which to open proceedings.

 

2.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests and CRIBBS CAUSEWAY and GOD GIVEN head this year’s vintage representatives from my viewpoint, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, foreign raiders often represent decent value from a Placepot perspective which will, likely as not, be the case again with the German representative FOSUN having been declared.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick this time around having won three renewals during the last decade during which time, all ten gold medallists scored at a top price of 10/1.  Half (6/12) of the favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.

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Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—God Given (soft)

 

3.25: FINAL VENTURE has been dropped nine spots by the official assessor since winning this event twelve months ago and cynics could argue that running off the same weight here suggests that Paul Midgley’s inmate is up against it, and then some!  Overnight support suggests that this might not be the attitude to take however and certainly from a Placepot perspective, I have no hesitation is adding Paul’s eight time winner into the equation.  Others to consider include MUTHMIR and BLUE DE VEGA, especially as Robert Cowell’s latter named raider is the pick of the two five-year-olds in the contest, with vintage representatives boasting four victories in the race during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals. That said, the four favourites before the last two market leaders won their respective events had finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/2—Gracious John (soft)

1/2—Final Venture (soft)

 

4.00: Four-year-olds boast the best recent record on the ‘John Of Gaunt’ event, snaring five contests during the last ten years and EMMAUS and D’BAI both offer serious form to bring into the contest on this occasion.  The pair is listed in order of preference with Roger Varian (Emmaus) getting into top form now, the trainer having secured three victories via his last six runners.  The main threat to vintage contenders this time around appears to be DUTCH CONNECTION.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last ten contests.  Aside from a couple of rogue gold medallists at 33/1 and 10/1, the other eight renewals during the last decade have been claimed by horses starting at a top price of 6/1.  Six of the last eleven favourites during the last decade claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Muntadab (soft)

1/1—Tabarrak (good to firm)

 

4.35: Tom Dascombe (and Michael Owen for that matter) hold this venue and Chester close to their hearts and the two inmates CALDER PRINCE and MICKEY both have sound claims in this grade/company on the best of their form lines.  I doubt whether both horses will finish out of the frame in all honesty, offering REPUTATION as the party pooper in the field if Tom and Michael are to be denied from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/2 favourite finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest:

2/8—Calder Prince (good to firm & soft)

2/2—Pennsylvania Dutch (good & soft)

 

5.10: David Evans has two chances on the card but LAST PAGE is his main player from my viewpoint and 7/1 with Skybet this morning proved too big for yours truly to resist.  Three of the last four winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-5, stats which also bring BREAKING RECORDS and CHOICE ENCOUNTER into the mix.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won two of the six renewals in the Placepot finale.  Five of the six market leaders have secured Placpot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 1st June

EPSOM – JUNE 1

 

Epsom Placepot dividends on Oaks day during the last seven years:

2017: 207.00 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £339.40 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

2015: £32.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £27.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £881.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

2012: £135.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £46.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £238.41 - 46 favourites - 15 winners - 10 placed - 21 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 76.1% units went through – 7/4 & 4/1 (13/8)

Race 2: 33.2% of the remaining units when through – 3/1** - 20/1 – 14/1 (3/1**)

Race 3: 56.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 9/1 – 11/2

Race 4: 10.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 16/1 – 14/1 (11/4)

Race 5: 83.0% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 8/11* - 16/1

Race 6: 28.6% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 5/2 – 3/1 (2/1)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Marie’s Diamond), 2 (Itstheonlyway) & 8 (True Belief)

Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Medburn Dream), 2 (King’s Pavillion) & 8 (Masham Star)

Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (Cracksman) & 2 (Hawksbill)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Ajman King) & 5 (Not So Sleepy)

Leg 5 (4.30): 9 (Wild Illusion) & 1 (Bye Bye Baby)

Leg 6 (5.15): 2 (Aurum), 3 (Kings Shield) & 5 (Rufus King)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Mark Johnston has secured five renewals of the Listed ‘Woodcote’ event during the last sixteen years and in MARIE’S DIAMOND, the trainer has a horse which could figure prominently again at the very least.  'Team Hannon' have produced three of the last five winners, notwithstanding the fact that one of the team passed the post in front twelve months ago before losing the race on a technicality.  ITSTHEONLYWAY is the stable representative with a chance this time around with the same comment applying to Charlie Appleby’s Excelebration colt TRUE BELIEF.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders, two joint and one co favourite have won of late, while 13 of the last 24 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result listed first):

4-5 (7 ran-good)

3-7 (6 ran-soft)

6-2-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

1-8-9 (8 ran-good)

1-6-4 (11 ran-good)

4-8 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-8-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-10-3 (12 ran-good)

3-10-2 (10 ran-good)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

1-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

2-5-9 (10 ran-good)

1-7-5 (8 ran-good)

3-8-1 (10 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

2-8-7 (11 ran-good to firm)

8-2 (7 ran-good)

2-1-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-5 (7 ran-good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have called the shots in this race, as eleven vintage representatives have won during the last twenty years (including nine of the last sixteen--vintage raiders finished second and third in 2013 at 16/1 & 10/1).  Four-year-olds were returned at 20/1-10/1-33/1 the previous year when finishing immediately behind the five-year-old winner.  This all said, five-year-olds have fought back of late, having claimed four of the last eight contests.  13 of the last 14 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4.  Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of MEDBURN DREAM, KING’S PAVILION and MASHAM STAR.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have prevailed during the last eleven years though that said, all eleven winners have scored at a top price of 12/1 which in the context of a competitive handicap, is a half decent return for punters.  Seven of the thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

6-11-7 (12 ran-good)

7-5-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

11-6-12 (12 ran-good)

2-13-1-15 (16 ran-good)

11-6-13 (14 ran-good to soft)

7-4-12-1 (17 ran-good)

4-12-17-15 (18 ran-good)

10-8-6 (14 ran-good)

12-3-8 (9 ran-good)

11-14-10 (14 ran-good)

4-9-14 (14 ran-good to soft)

15-2-1-12 (16 ran-good)

4-1-6 (11 ran-good)

8-11-7 (13 ran-good)

5-1-3-15 (16 ran-good)

1-10-5 (10 ran-soft)

3-9-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

3-10-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

9-8-5 (14 ran-good to soft)

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15-14-7 (14 ran-good)

Epsom record of the two course winners in the second event on the Oaks card:

1/3—King’s Pavilion (good to soft)

1/3—Medburn Dream (soft)

 

3.10: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last nineteen renewals and with CRACKSMAN looking better than ever, John Gosden’s proven soft ground winner looks home and hosed, despite some serious opposition. With Aidan O’Brien having won eight of the last thirteen renewals of the Coronation Cup, the chance of IDAHO is obviously respected, even though ground conditions seem to have gone against the Galileo raider this time around.  HAWKSBILL therefore jumps into the slot reserved as the ‘main threat’, though Charlie Appleby’s representative is silver medal bound at best from my viewpoint, despite his impressive 3/3 record under soft conditions.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last nineteen favourites have won, whilst fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in during the study period.

Draw factor: (twelve furlongs):

3-4-1 (8 ran-good to soft)

5 (4 ran-good to firm)

7-5 (7 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good to firm)

1-3 (5 ran-good)

8-5-1 (9 ran-good)

8-5-1 (8 ran-good)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

2-3 (7 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

9-6 (7 ran-good)

5-1-3 (11 ran-good)

4-8-7 (9 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-soft)

1-2 (6 ran-good to firm)

2 (4 ran-good to soft)

3-2 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (7 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the Coronation Cup:

1/2--Cracksman (good)

 

3.45: Four-year-olds have dominated this event as vintage representatives have snared eight of the last twenty renewals, whilst nine of the last eleven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones.  Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight short list of AJMAN KING, last year’s winner NOT SO SLEEPY and DARK RED.  The trio is listed in order of preference to put it mildly, with dual (unbeaten) course winner AJMAN KING at home on the type of conditions we can expect on Friday.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the course of the last twenty years, whilst only seven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions over the period, even though some joint favourites have been involved as you might imagine in such a competitive event.

Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

2-5-8 (14 ran-good)

1-4-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

7-13-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

5-10-6 (12 ran-good)

12-4-5 (8 ran-good to soft)

8-2-3 (13 ran-good)

8-1-5 (11 ran-good)

10-5-3 (12 ran-good)

4-11-6 (10 ran-good)

5-2-1 (10 ran-good)

1-4-11 (12 ran-good to soft)

13-12-4-2 (17 ran-good)

10-8-15-14 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (11 ran-good)

6-7-2 (14 ran-good)

10-1-9 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

14-7-6 (14 ran-good)

10-3-8 (15 ran-good)

3-8-10 (14 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Dark Red (soft)

1/4—Banditry (good to firm)

2/2—Ajman King (good & heavy)

1/1—Not So Sleepy (good)

1/2—Brorocco (good)

1/5—Emenem (good)

 

4.30: There are contrasting stats relating to outsiders in the 'favourite factor' sector below because although lots of outsiders have won the Epsom Oaks of late, few others have reached the frame via an exact science.  John Gosden was waxing lyrical about the chance of Enable this time last year before the exceptional filly got the better on an Aidan O’Brien odds on chance before going to greater things.  Charlie Appleby is also sweet on his Dubawi filly WILD ILLUSION this time around and having won on soft ground in the past, William Buick’s mount look a certainty for the frame at the very least.  With Aidan O’Brian saddling five of the other eight runners, the trainer will still be hoping that he can claim his seventh victory in the race and I believe that the value for money call from his quintet is BYE BYE BABY.

Favourite factor: Only 18 of the 126 horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners) during the last 20 years.  On the other hand, five of the last ten winners have scored at odds ranging between 20/1 & 50/1.  Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent times.  15 of the 22 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

9-5-7 (9 ran-good)

4-9-5 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-1-11 (11 ran-good)

9-10-17 (17 ran-good)

3-1-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-8-2 (12 ran-good)

7-12-2 (13 ran-good)

15-4-2 (14 ran-good)

5-2-9 (10 ran-good)

13-10-11 (16 ran-good)

11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)

5-3-10 (10 ran-good)

2-4-9 (12 ran-good)

3-6 (7 ran-good)

7-11-9 (15 ran-good)

13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)

10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-4-8 (8 ran-good)

 

5.15: Eleven of the last twelve winners of the Placepot finale have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and though that trend is guaranteed to be extended this time around, I have left the stat in for your records.  Whatever happens to Charlie Appleby’s projected favourite in the Oaks, stable companion AURUM has a leading chance in the final leg of our favourite wager, with connections having most to fear from KINGS SHIELD and RUFUS KING.  I’m adding Mark Johnston’ latter named runner because although he has something to find via the form book, Rufus King will be battling all the way to the line which might not be the case of the projected favourite Kings Shield on ground which might prove to be his downfall.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won to date via twenty renewals, taking into account that the favourite ten years ago was withdrawn shortly before the off before a new market could be formed.  12 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

3-7 (7 ran-good)

6-2-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

7-2-4 (9 ran-good)

6-2 (5 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-2 (6 ran-good)

5-1 (6 ran-good)

1-3-6 (8 ran-good)

9-2-5 (9 ran-good)

3-9 (7 ran-good)

2-3-10 (9 ran-good to soft)

5-4 (6 ran-good)

7-2-9 (9 ran-good)

2-9-7 (9 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-soft)

6-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-4 (6 ran-good)

1-5-9 (9 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 24th May

SANDOWN – MAY 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £773.30 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 43.9% units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 15/2 (9/2)

Race 2: 47.4% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 7/4*

Race 3: 72.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* & 7/1

Race 4: 17.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 4/1 – 4/1 (11/4)

Race 5: 14.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 11/2 (5/6)

Race 6: 24.5% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 6/1 – 9/1 (5/1)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 6 (What A Welcome), 3 (Garbanzo) & 1 (Psychotic)

Leg 2 (6.35): 4 (Kinks), 9 (Wedding Date) & 5 (Conchek)

Leg 3 (7.05): 9 (Without Parole) & 5 (Regal Reality)

Leg 4 (7.35): 8 (Weekender), 6 (Mount Moriah) & 1 (Magic Circle)

Leg 5 (8.10): 5 (Poet’s Word) & 4 (Larraib)

Leg 6 (8.40): 8 (Kynren), 7 (Mountain Angel) & 5 (Kynren)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

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6.00: Four-year-olds have secured 18 of the 31 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six of the last nine winners (16/1-10/1-7/1-13/2-9/2*-7/2). There are eight representatives to assess this year, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be WHAT A WELCOME and GARBANZO who was attracting a fair amount of support when offered in double figures in the dead of night, most of which from an each way perspective I’ll wager. If the vintage trend goes base over apex on this occasion, PSYCHOTIC could prove to an interesting contender, offered at 20/1 in a place this morning.

Favourite factor: The eleven favourites thus far have snared five gold, one silver and a bronze medal between them.

Record of the two course winners in the opening race: 

1/4—Tobacco Road (soft)

1/5—Zambeasy (good)

 

6.35: ’Team Hannon’ has celebrated victory in six of the last eleven renewals of the National Stakes though that said, the stable has also saddled four beaten favourites in the contest since 2009.  Perhaps that is the reason why the team was not represented last year, though WEDDING DATE has been declared this time around.  Both Michael Bell (ARTAIR) and Mick Channon (KINKS) were sweet on their juveniles during stable tours earlier in the year and they have both proved their respective trainers right by scoring already.  Indeed, KINKS is having his fourth race coming here on a hat trick having been withdrawn from the ‘Lily Agnes’ at Chester the other week.  Clive Cox does not tilt at windmills too often with ‘no-hopers’ whereby KONCHEK is included into the equation in a fascinating renewal.

Favourite factor: Five of the last twenty favourites have won whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

7.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last twelve winners, notwithstanding his all-time record in the contest (by a big margin), given Michael's ten successes down the years.  These stats bode well for stable representatives GABR and REGAL REALITY who have both posted wins win moisture in the ground, should that scenario ensue this evening with plenty of rain heading Sandown’s way according to the latest radar readings. That all said, WITHOUT PAROLE should take the beating if John Gosden’s Frankel colt can reproduce anything like the form of his two assignments thus far, which were both won by six lengths margins.  Vintager looks best of the rest, especially if the forecast rain arrives on cue.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this Listed event during the last twenty one years. Fourteen of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Heron Stakes: 

1/1—Petrus (good to firm)

 

7.35: Four-year-olds have won 16 of the last 33 renewals, despite the fact that the vintage is not always represented.  John Gosden looks set for a good evening having declared his four-year-old Frankel colt WEEKENDER, though fellow vintage representative MOUNT MARIAH offers a threat I’ll wager, whilst money has been pouring on the Chester Cup winner MAGIC CIRCLE overnight.  David Simcock’s grand old servant Sheikhzayedroad will offer his consistent form likely as not, whilst Time To Study would have won a lesser renewal in the past but this test looks harsh enough from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 23 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the Group 3 ‘Henry II’, statistics which include five winners.

 

8.10: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ event of late, securing 17 of the last 21 renewals between them.  Four-year-olds lead the way with 14 victories during the extended study period, which includes twelve of the last sixteen contests.  LARRAIB is the lone four-year-old in the field (wake up trainers), though connections would not have been pleased (when searching out weather forecasts) to see rain on the horizon.  Sir Michael Stoute has won three of the last four renewals in which the stable was represented and in POET’S WORD, the trainer has a leading chance of improving the ratio still further.  Although having secured a 2/2 record on fast ground to date, Michael’s five-year-old representative boasts a gold and a silver medal from just two assignments under good to soft conditions, whereby the Poet’s Voice raider seems to have all eventualities covered.  Fabricate looks sure to offer up his consistent form but this looks a warm heat and then some.

Favourite factor: Five of the last 18 favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst ten of the market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

 

8.40: Four-year-olds have claimed 15 of the last 25 gold medals (including nine of the last sixteen) and the pick of the vintage representatives on this occasion could prove to be FASTER (especially if the rain arrives), MOUNTAIN ANGEL and KYNREN in a fascinating Placepot finale.  Connections of all three horses will be buoyed by the prospect of rain, whilst CHIEFOFCHIEFS is offered up as the reserve nomination. As ever was the case, this is a fabulous card and at last, viewers with just terrestrial television to call on can now watch the spectacle unfold.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 21 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Nine of the last fourteen favourites have claimed six gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of the beaten market leaders.

Sandown record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale: 

3/5—Chevalier (2 x good to firm & good to soft)

1/1—First Selection (good)

1/1—Fastar (good)

1/3—Frank Bridge (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 14th May

WINDSOR – MAY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13.40 (5 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced —meeting abandoned after four races due to unsafe ground)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.4% units went through – 5/1 – 17/2 – 7/2 (9/4)

Race 2: 74.9% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 10/3 – 16/1

Race 3: 73.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/10* - 7/2 – 14/1

Race 4: 37.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 7/2** - 6/1 (7/2**)

Race 5: Abandoned

Race 6: Abandoned

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 2 (Manor Park) & 7 (Wild West Hero)

Leg 2 (5.50): 1 (Big Boots) & 2 (James Watt)

Leg 3 (6.20): 1 (Silent Echo), 3 (Udontdodou) & 5 (Open Wide)

Leg 4 (6.50): 7 (Via Via), 6 (Soveriegn Debt) & 5 (Oh This Is Us)

Leg 5 (7.20): 4 (Desert Path), 8 (Nautical Mile) & 11 (Arabian Fairytale)

Leg 6 (7.50): 4 (Dream Machine), 12 (Hawridge Glory) & 11 (Essenaitch)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

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  • Special comment last year: I am not in the habit of highlighting horses like this but in the circumstances, two soft ground course winners catch the eye at massive prices (50/1 & 40/1) respectively this morning, namely Fastnet Spin (5.50) & Englishman (6.50).
  • Results? Fastnet Spin was beaten at 100/1 but Englishman won at 33/1. That said, Fastnet Spin won two races later in the year, both on heavy ground.  Via Via (6.50) is my idea of the best ‘outsider’ on the card tonight.

 

5.20: Some of the top flat trainers are represented here, yet it could be dual purpose trainer Alan King that grabs the swag having declared MANOR PARK who has received some overnight support.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute does not raid this racecourse with too many juveniles, whereby WILD WEST HERO is an interesting contender, particularly as Michael won the race six years ago with Rye House who went on two land a couple of decent prizes down the line.  Airmax and The Lincoln Lawyer are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Four of the last eight market leaders secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events when returned at 9/2, 3/1, 11/4 & 6/4.

 

5.50: The two winners in the field could dominate at the business end of the contest with BIG BOOTS expected to get the better of JAMES WATT, despite Mick Channon’s Society Rock colt having to give three pounds to the projected market leader.  The remaining eight contenders all receive plenty of weight but might have to be quite talented to get the better of this pair who both impressed at the first time of asking.  Both horses scored at ‘secondary courses’ (Bath and Brighton respectively) but there was plenty to like about their respective victories.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural event was won by the 11/10 favourite.

 

6.20: I cannot pretend that I have anything for you to follow up last year’s success, though Cartographer should go well at an each way price with trainer Martyn Meade surely desperate to earn some compensation for the heavy defeat of Eminent at Chester last week.  More logical winners might include SILENT ECHO and UDONTDODOU however, whilst OPEN WIDE was touch off by Englishman here last week who recorded another big priced success at Windsor at 20/1.

Favourite factor: Englishman won the inaugural event at 33/1 for yours truly when beating one of the two 7/2 joint favourites in a photo finish twelve months ago.  Detectives are still out searching for the other market leader.

Record of the three course winners in the third race:

1/2—Udontdodou (good)

1/4—Open Wide (good to firm)

1/4—Little Palaver (good to firm)

 

6.50: 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) looks too big about VIA VIA who has been backed down to single figures with some firms at the time of writing.  James Tate’s raider has a bit to find on the form book but this stable tends to strike when the money is down, albeit usually at much shorter prices.  SOVEREIGN DEBT is an interesting northern raider from Ruth Carr’s yard which has been going well this spring.  ‘Team Hannon’ have snared this prize three times in recent years whereby the chance of OH THIS IS US is respected.  Stable companion Khafoo Shememi’s penalty will probably weigh him down this time around.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight marker leading finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include four winners at 15/8, 5/4, 10/11 & 4/6.

Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Arod (good)

 

7.20: What looks a minefield on paper has been reduced to a match if you believe what you can witness via the exchanges this morning.  We are not talking a great deal of money here, but the ‘pound notes’ that have been in circulation have only centred on DESERT PATH and NAUTICAL MILE, maybe with a few Euros thrown in for good measure.  Any support for Clive Cox’s filly ARABIAN FAIRYTALE later in the day should be heeded.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.50: If the ground does not dry out too much, dual good to soft course winner ESSENAITCH would enter the Placepot mix, albeit I slightly prefer DREAM MACHINE and HAWRIDGE GLORY.  Receiving weight from three rivals here, DREAM MACHINE was a model of consistency for Michael Bell and his team last year and having won at the first time of asking last term, Neil Mulholland’s recruit looks sure to be in the thick of things twelve months on.

Favourite factor: Another new contest to close out Windsor’s Placepot programme.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/12—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 25th April

EPSOM – APRIL 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £52.90 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 43.1% units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 9/1 (4/1)

Race 2: 87.1% of the remaining units when through – 4/6* - 11/2 – 14/1

Race 3: 64.5% of the remaining units went through – 11/10* - 25/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 42.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 13/2 – 5/1 (4/1)

Race 5: 65.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* - 12/1 – 5/1

Race 6: 20.4% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 – 9/2 – 16/1 (7/2)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (Compas Scoobie), 8 (Just That Lord) & 1 (Desert Law)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Crossed Baton) & 3 (James Cook)

Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Royal Line), 8 (Golden Wolf) & 10 (Whinging Willy)

Leg 4 (3.55): 8 (Ajman King) & 9 (Contango)

Leg 5 (4.25): 5 (Mokhles) & 4 (Master Of Wine)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Christopher Wood), 1 (Akvavera) & 5 (Cuban Heel)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: The top ten runners in the handicap hold the edge over the bottom four in the list according to weight trends, with the last eleven winners having carried a minimum burden of 8-11.  If any rain got into the ground I could offer an each way shout for Pettochside with John Bridger having saddled a winner yesterday.  A winner of 6/10 races on soft ground, the going is likely to be a little too lively for Josephine Gordon’s mount however, whereby preference on this occasion is awarded to COMPAS SCOOBIE, JUST THAT LORD (runner up last year) and DESERT LAW.  That said, keep an eye on the weather at Epsom, just in case connections of Pettochside are walking around with smiles on their faces.

Favourite factor: Five of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (3/1 & 5/4) market leaders.  The last seven winners have scored at 25/1-20/1-12/1-7/1-13/2-9/2-4/1.  Nine of the last twenty horses to have claimed Placepot positions have been returned in double figures.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

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1/3—Desert Law (good to firm)

1/4—Pettochside (good)

1/1—Midnight Malibu (good)

 

2.45: This Epsom Derby trial has failed to produce a winner of the ‘Blue Riband’ since 1939 but the contest has offered up half decent gold medallists, with last year’s winner Cracksman being one of them.  John Gosden has saddled the last three winners of the contest and in CROSSED BATTON, John has another worthy favourite in the field.  For the record, John has saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect, with two of the other three inmates snaring silver medal positions.  More rain would probably aid and abet the chance of JAMES COOK who is a brother of Found who also hailed from the Aidan O’Brien yard. The same going comment is also relevant to MY LORD AND MASTER who could yet be anything.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the last twenty favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include ten winners.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Dee Ex Bee (heavy)

 

3.20: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals of the ’Great Met’, a race which used to command plenty of media space a few years ago.  Vintage representative GOLDEN WOLF is nothing if not consistent with the Richard Hughes raider boasting each way claims.  That said, John Gosden has (seemingly) caught the trend bug by declaring ROYAL LINE who appears to be the logical favourite in the contest, especially as John saddles just the two horses to today’s card.  WHINGING WILLIE has had his limitations exposed on decent ground in the past but if the forecast showers arrive on cue, Gary Moore’s raider could improve his record of already having snared two silver medals in this event to date.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eighteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Great Met’:

1/4—Fire Fighting (good to firm)

2/5—Lovelina (2 x good)

2/3—C’Est No Mour (2 x good)

1/14—Whinging Willie (heavy)

1/3—Berrahai (good)

 

3.50: Four-year-olds have won thirteen of the last nineteen renewals of this Class 2 (City & Suburban) event, whilst eight of the last eleven gold medallists have carried weights of 8-13 more.  With four-year-olds on a five timer on this occasion, more trainers appear to have taken notice of the trend than is usually the case and the pick of the seven relevant entries will hopefully prove to be AJMAN KING and CONTANGO.  The latter named Andrew Balding representative has contested all five assignments to date with ‘soft’ having featured in the ground description thus far, whereby connections will be hoping that the disappointing weather forecast is accurate.  Either way though, AJMAN KING might take the beating with Roger Varian seemingly having found a good opportunity for his progressive Lope De Vega colt.  Dubai Horizon is the reserve nomination ahead of course winner Thundering Home.

Favourite factor: 13/26 market leaders of late have finished in the frame, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the three course winners in the ‘City & Surburban’:

1/2—Thundering Blue (good to soft)

1/4—Emenem (good)

1/1—Ajman King (heavy)

 

4.25: The market will no doubt offer the best advice here which puts you in the ‘box seat’ over yours truly.  There is not much movement on the exchanges at the time of writing, though MOKHLES is unlikely to be offered up at 9/2 according to the positive queue.  MASTER OF WINE is marginally preferred to KING OF THE SAND in receipt of three pounds relating to the home brigade.

Favourite factor: This is a new event on the Epsom card.

 

5.00: Seven of the last eleven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and with only 5/11 qualifying via the trend (fairly weak though it is), I’m inclined to look towards the top of the handicap for the winner.  The trio I’m homing in on as dawn breaks over Bristol consists of CHRISTOPHER WOOD, AKVAVERA and CUBAN HILL.

Favourite factor: Six of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame (five winners) in the Placepot finale thus far.

Record of the course winner on the Placepot finale:

1/1—Deadly Accurate (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 7th March

CATTERICK – MARCH 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £92.30 (9 favourites – 4 winners & 5 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Hurricane Hollow) & 2 (Young Tom)

Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Verni) & 1 (Cracking Find)

Leg 3 (2.50): 5 (Quick Wave), 6 (State Sovereignty) & 11 (Stylish Dancer)

Leg 4 (3.20): 3 (Square Viviani), 2 (Dica), 4 (Uno Valeroso) & 1 (Leap Dearg)

Leg 5 (3.50): 1 (Allmyown), 5 (Houndscourt) & 4 (Turtle Cask)

Leg 6 (4.20): 2 (Battle Dust) & 3 (Duhallow Tornado)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: I am suffering from what I believe to be a migraine (neve troubled by these before) whereby I apologise in advance for any typos/lack of detail this morning.  Better this week than next I guess with Cheltenham in mind.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that HURRICANE HOLLOW should account for YOUNG TOM despite the concession of 19 pounds (even taking the relevant claim into account), with the other three runners running from above their proper marks.  Discoverie represents Ken Slack though and I have learned not to be too dismissive about his runners in the past, whatever their prices.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame via two renewals by winning their respective events at 4/6 & 3/1 (joint favourite).

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

2/9—Discoverie (good to soft & soft)

 

2.20: Philip Hobbs is slowly (but surely) emerging from the gloom which has darkened his stable for several weeks now and the trainer seems to have found an ideal opportunity for VERNI to secure his fourth victory in the Rooney colours.  Sue Smith’s runners at Catterick can rarely be dismissed whereby course winner CRACKING FIND is preferred to De Dollar Man as the main threat, if only from a value for money perspective.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Catterick card.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/3—Cracking Find (good to soft)

 

2.50: Five-year-olds have secured four of the last seven renewals, claiming seven of the thirteen available Placepot positions via 32% of the total number of runners.  I successfully took on a 2/11 favourite in the race two years ago because of the facts and figures, with QUICK WAVE easily looking the pick of this year’s three vintage representatives.  Venetia Williams has saddled two of her four runners at the track this season to winning effect for good measure. STATE SOVERIEGNTY and Dan Skelton’s newcomer STYLISH DANCER are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

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Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders albeit they were all returned as odds on jollies.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Alohamona (good to soft)

 

3.20: Money for SQUARE VIVIANI making his debut for the Micky Hammond yard would add interest to proceedings in a race that should not prove difficult to win.  Bits and pieces of support were forthcoming overnight though I cannot report a wholesale gamble on the seven-year-old as yet.  The other three horses in this ‘win only’ contest have all got chances of one sort or another and the safest bet from a Placepot perspective is to include all four runners into the mix, hoping that the horse with the least units prevails.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Catterick programme.

Record of course winners in the field:

1/6—Uno Valeroso (soft)

 

3.50: The world and his dog know that Turtle Island stock like plenty of give in the ground but that was the case last year when Turtle Cask was beaten 44 lengths in the corresponding event on the card whereby I am passing over his chance (despite Ryan Day taking the ride) in favour of ALLMYOWN and HOUNDSCOURT.   That said, Ryan’s mount in included in the Placepot mix in such a poor event.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 10/11 market leaders prevailed by a six length margin before all three of last year’s 4/1 co favourites finished out with the washing.

Record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:

1/6—Turtle Cask (soft)

 

4.20:  Unusually in Hunter Chase events, horses aged in single figures have won twelve of the last thirteen renewals, though there is a clue in the title of the race which provides the reason.  This is a 'Novice' Hunter Chase which makes all the difference in the world and the trend should be extended with the likes of BATTLE DUST, DUHALLOW TORNADO and (possibly) JUST CAUSE having been declared.

Favourite factor: Four (10/11, 6/4, 15/8 & 11/4) market leaders have prevailed of late alongside gold medallists which were returned at 50/1-25/1-20/1-18/1-16/1.  That said, the last six market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Catterick card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

3 runners—Micky Hammond (4/30 +19) – 13/155 – loss of 49

2—Pail Collins (No previous runners at the track recorded)

2—Joanne Foster (0/6) – 1/39 – loss of 34

2—Chris Grant (0/2) – 0/43

2—Phil Kirby (1/8 – loss of 1) – 3/49 – loss of 35

2—J A Nash (1/2 +5) – 1/2 +5

2—Dan Skelton (2/8 – loss of 3) – 8/27 – loss of 5

2—Sue Smith (5/21 – loss of 5) – 29/99 +73

2—Mike Sowersby (0/1) – 0/32)

2—Vic Thompson (0/1) – 0/6

26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

47 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fontwell was abandoned

Lingfield: £23.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Kempton: £60.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 27th February

CHELMSFORD – FEBRUARY 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

This is a new addition to the fixture list because of the adverse weather conditions

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Chelmsford: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 3 (Make Magic) & 2 (I Was Only Joking)

Leg 2 (2.45): 4 (Tigerfish), 6 (Sharp Operator) & 10 (Babette)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Frozen Lake) & 4 (Gala Celebration)

Leg 4 (4.15): 6 (Dis Gift). 5 (Mambo Dancer) & 1 (Galileo’s Spear)

Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Deeds Not Words), 6 (Jorvik Prince) & 5 (Fethiye Boy)

Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Ovocet) & 2 (Canford Thompson)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: There is plenty of positive money on the exchanges at the time of writing to ‘ensure’ that I WAS ONLY JOKING will struggle to reach even money early doors, with odds on quotes the order of the day.  MAKE MAGIC is the alternative call from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: This being an additional fixture on the calendar, there is no history to the meeting.

 

2.45: TIGERFISH could emerge as a ‘plunge horse’ when the offices open this morning looking at ‘speculative’ support in the dead of night.  Either way, this is a contest which demands three selections in order to move our way into the second third of our favourite bet, offering BABETTE and SHARP OPERATOR against Outlaw Torn given the odds on offer this morning.

Course winners in the field:

1/9—Outlaw Torn

2/9—Nouvelle Ere

 

3.15: I’ve taken a little of the 15/2 on offer with Skybet relating to FROZEN LAKE (topical tip) given that John O’Shea’s raider is as short as 5/1 with a few firms.  There is plenty of speculative cash in the positive queue for John’s recent Kempton winner.  GALA CELEBRATION is the ‘form call’ but bookmakers might have over reacted by the look of their general 6/5 offer in the dead of night

Course winners in the third race:

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1/5—Tellovo

2/5—Hipz

1/6—Ted’s Brother

 

3.45: ‘Exchange speculators’ are out in force this morning, giving the impression that plenty of investors have taken the day off today with the weather conditions as they are.  Business was slow to start with but plenty of cash is arriving in the positive queues, albeit at speculative ‘odds’, with players hoping to catch out the odd person who is only half awake out as dawn begins to break.  DIS GIFT is one such horse and I’m wondering if speculators are considering that Mark Johnston’s runners might struggle to reach the course given the road conditions.  In such circumstances, taking a half decent price tends to be preferable (against SP) even with a rule 4 which could be in place later this morning.  Mark potentially saddles MAMBO DANCER with obvious claims, whilst GALILEO’S SPEAR might offer some Placepot value as a ‘stopping weight’ of 10-3 will put plenty of people off supporting the Sir Mark Prescott representative.

Course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/5--Eurato

 

4.15: The course record of JORVIK PRINCE catches the eye in no uncertain terms at first glance, albeit Karen Tutty’s inmate has never won off anything like this current official mark of 74.  Conversely, DEEDS NOT WORDS (9/1 in three places this morning) has won off a two pound higher mark than today’s ‘65’ assignment and it’s worth noting the trade race report when beaten just over three lengths at Kempton ten days ago which read that DEEDS NOT WORDS was merely “shuffled along” before what might be described as ‘nearest at finish’ at the jamstick.  FETHIYE BOY is added into the Placepot equation on his debut for the Daniel Loughnane stable.

Course winners in the fifth event:

2/11—Captain Lars

1/4—Shamshon

1/4—Classic Present

1/1—Fethiye Boy

2/3—Jorvik Prince

1/15—Penny Dreadful

 

4.45: AVOCET and CANFORD THOMPSON are the obvious pair to focus on from a Placepot perspective, given that if the dividend looks worth winning going into the last leg, we can ‘lay off’ at extremely short prices if we feel the need to do so.  I have no interest in the race in terms of which horse wins the contest.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Chelmsford card on Tuesday – with their seasonal figures at Chelmsford followed by their five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

3 runners—Michael Appleby (5/31 loss of 10) – 33/313 – loss of 122

3—Ian Williams (1/7 – loss of 1) – 14/69 – loss of 8

2—David Bridgwater (0/3) – 0/8

2—John Butler (0/9) – 8/66 +64

2—Tony Carroll (0/11) – 12/112 – loss of 37

2—Alex Gunn (0/4) – 0/5

2—Richard Guest (2/7 +1) – 11/62 +33

2—Mark Johnston (2/8 – loss of 2) – 39/267 – loss of 88

2—Laura Mongan (0/5) – 1/8 +7

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £10.50 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 placed

Lingfield: £23.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Monday 12th February

WOLVERHAMPTON – FEBRUARY 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £762.00 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Wolverhampton: 

Leg 1 (5.10): 3 (Crown Walk) & 1 (Feathery)

Leg 2 (5.40): 2 (Iconic Sunset), 1 (Battle Lines) & 4 (Illusional)

Leg 3 (6.10): 6 (Star Archer) & 7 (Qaffaal)

Leg 4 (6.40): 3 (Haines) & 2 (Dubawi Fifty)

Leg 5 (7.10): 8 (Camino), 5 (Barnsdale) & 7 (Lambrini Legacy)

Leg 6 (7.40): 8 (Sir Harry Collins), 9 (Storm Lightning) & 10 (Go Charlie)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.10: Three-year-olds have won all nine renewals to date, albeit via the thick end of 70% of the total number of runners.  Junior raiders are 2/5 to extend the trend before form is taken into account, with three-year-old CROWN WALK listed ahead of four-year-old FEATHERY on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Ignoring the Novice status of this event which suggests it is a new contest, six of the last seven market leaders claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events.  Government health warning; I notice that the distance of this event has changed as well, whereby you might want to take the ‘new race’ as read.  For this reason, I will not be continuing the stats next year, marking this as the ‘new regime’.

 

5.40: Mark Johnston has long since been known as the leading trainer of three-year-old handicappers north of Watford whereby ILLUSIONAL will be a popular choice.  Intensive study down the years has illustrated to yours truly that the negative profit/loss figures for James Tate purely suggests that his winners invariably score when well backed whereby ICONIC SUNSET (attracting money on the exchanges as I write in the dead of night) must be included in the equation.  BATTLE LINES is a stable companion of ICONIC SUNSET whose odds have retracted as well which complicates matters.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite finished out of the frame before last year’s market leader frustratingly finished fourth for those that included the favourite in the Placepot mix.

 

6.10: Four-year-old STAR ARCHER comes to the gig on a hat trick, with vintage representatives having secured four of the nine available Placepot positions via less than 25% of the total number of runners. STAR ARCHER also happens to be the only runner on the Placepot card at Wolverhampton with a 100% strike rate at the track, albeit via just the one relevant assignment to date.  Last year’s winner PACTOLUS is a threat on the best of his form, whilst QAFFAAL looks too big at 15/2 in a place (Betbright) in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only first two horse home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.
Favourite factor: Three market leaders had all claimed Placepot positions (including one 6/4) winner) before last year’s 3/1 market leader let the side down.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/3—Mount Tahan

3/6—Pactolus

1/3—Third Time Lucky

1/1—Star Archer

1/3—Qaffaal

 

6.40:  HAINES has been found a fine opportunity to follow up his win in this race last year, albeit the Andrew Balding raider’s ratio at the track has slipped to less than 17% in recent times.  Only DUBAWI FIFTY is being backed to beat Andrew’s Shirocco gelding at the time of writing, whilst Velvet Revolution looks booked for the bronze medal in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Ignore the fact that this is a ‘new race’ as indicated in the trade press because this event was run on the Wednesday of this week last year instead of the Monday.  As suggested before, don’t believe ALL you read!

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/6—Haines

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1/2—Velvet Revolution

 

7.10: Although there are six course winners in the field, it is worth noting that their aggregate ratio via seven victories to date stands at just 12.5%, a stat which will offer layers plenty of confidence going into the last two Placepot events.  Nine of the last twelve gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of nine stones which offers tentative chances to the likes of CAMINO. BARNSDALE and LAMBRINI LEGACY.
Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions in as many years, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/6—Emjayem

2/5—Little Nosegay

2/13—Novabridge

1/8—Mostasheeqah

1/24—Spoken Words

 

7.40: This is the second division of the previous race whereby the same weight stats apply.  Another six course winners (as in the first division) line up but in this instance, their collective  current Wolverhampton ratio stands at 11.5%, even though 15 success have been recorded!  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that SIR HARRY COLLINS, STORM LIGHTNING and GO CHARLIE can snare a Placepot position or two between them, hopefully landing the dividend on our behalf.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply; eight of the thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions in as many years, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/8—See Vermont

1/15—Roy’s Legacy

5/45—Your Gifted

1/16—Storm Lightning

1/11—Go Charlie

6/36—Give Us A Belle

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Wolverhampton card on Monday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) ratios and five year figures at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Michael Appleby (2/26 – loss of 11 points) – 57/498 – loss of 137

3—Alan Berry (0/1) – 1/60 – loss of 55

3—Richard Fahey (1/12 - +5) – 64/509 – loss of 50

3—Lisa Williamson (0/4) – 10/203 – loss of 93

2—Michael Attwater (First runners at Wolves this season) – 4/32 – loss of 7

2—Rebecca Bastiman (3/8 +41) – 5/40 +51

2—Andrew Balding (1/5 – loss of 3) – 15/112 – loss of 53

2—Marco Botti (1/3 – slight loss) – 45/256 – loss of 3

2—Mark Brisbourne (0/6) – 10/218 – loss of 136

2—David Loughnane (0/14) – 2/58 – level via profit/loss

2—Karen McLintock (0/2) – 4/11 +6

2—James Tate (1/3 – slight profit) – 35/207 – loss of 39

2—Karen Tutty (0/1) – 2/19 – loss of 12

2—Ian Williams (0/11) – 31/244 – loss of 10

2—Stuart Williams (1/8 – level via profit/loss) – 22/130 – loss of 35

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £44.00 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Plumpton: £717.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 12th February 2018

Saturday's Result :

4.50 Warwick : The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Tracked leader, led before last, kept on, ridden out to win by a length...

We start a new week with Monday's...

4.05 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 3, 3m1.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,707 to the winner...

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Why?

Well, for a start, we know that trainer Sue Smith targets this race, having won it three times in four years and the that she has two of today's six runners is also a pointer in that direction. I just feel that our pick is her better option and the jockey booking (Danny Cook) would appear to back that up.

Our runner won this race himself two years ago and is unbeaten in three visits to Catterick : all over fences including...

  • 2 x handicaps
  • 2 at Class 3
  • 2 at 3m1f/3m1.5f
  • 2 with Danny Cook
  • 1 on soft ground

Meanwhile, Sue's horses are going well, winning 1 in 5 over the past month (8/40) rising to a 25% strike rate in the lats 7 days (3/12), whilst here at Catterick since the start of 2014, she has 27 winners from 93 (29% SR) for profits of 96.77pts at a phenomenal ROI of some 104.1%.

Amongst those 93 Catterick entries...

  • handicappers are 19/59 (32.2%) for 38.1pts (+64.6%)
  • those ridden by Danny Cook are 15/42 (35.7%) for 29.5pts (+70.2%)
  • chasers are 18/37 (48.7%) for 63.6pts (+171.9%)
  • those racing over 3m1f and beyond are 14/36 (38.9%) for 34.45pts (+95.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 13/32 (40.6%) for 51.3pts (+160.3%)
  • those racing at Class 3 : 11/23 (47.8%) for 39.75pts (+172.8%)
  • those with a previous Catterick win are 12/17 (70.6%) for 45.38pts (+266.9%)

AND...Smith / Cook / Catterick / Soft ground / Handicap Chase = 3/3 (100% SR) for 18.92pts (+630.8% ROI) since the start of 2016, all at Class 3.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG which was generally available at 5.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th February 2018

Saturday's Result :

4.50 Warwick : The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Tracked leader, led before last, kept on, ridden out to win by a length...

We start a new week with Monday's...

4.05 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 3, 3m1.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,707 to the winner...

Why?

Well, for a start, we know that trainer Sue Smith targets this race, having won it three times in four years and the that she has two of today's six runners is also a pointer in that direction. I just feel that our pick is her better option and the jockey booking (Danny Cook) would appear to back that up.

Our runner won this race himself two years ago and is unbeaten in three visits to Catterick : all over fences including...

  • 2 x handicaps
  • 2 at Class 3
  • 2 at 3m1f/3m1.5f
  • 2 with Danny Cook
  • 1 on soft ground

Meanwhile, Sue's horses are going well, winning 1 in 5 over the past month (8/40) rising to a 25% strike rate in the lats 7 days (3/12), whilst here at Catterick since the start of 2014, she has 27 winners from 93 (29% SR) for profits of 96.77pts at a phenomenal ROI of some 104.1%.

Amongst those 93 Catterick entries...

  • handicappers are 19/59 (32.2%) for 38.1pts (+64.6%)
  • those ridden by Danny Cook are 15/42 (35.7%) for 29.5pts (+70.2%)
  • chasers are 18/37 (48.7%) for 63.6pts (+171.9%)
  • those racing over 3m1f and beyond are 14/36 (38.9%) for 34.45pts (+95.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 13/32 (40.6%) for 51.3pts (+160.3%)
  • those racing at Class 3 : 11/23 (47.8%) for 39.75pts (+172.8%)
  • those with a previous Catterick win are 12/17 (70.6%) for 45.38pts (+266.9%)

AND...Smith / Cook / Catterick / Soft ground / Handicap Chase = 3/3 (100% SR) for 18.92pts (+630.8% ROI) since the start of 2016, all at Class 3.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG which was generally available at 5.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Catterick

Please note, I've been in Prague for the last five days and I'm travelling home this afternoon/evening, so Tuesday's pick will go out much later than usual. Hopefully before 11pm, but keep an eye on the site/social media to be sure!

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 2nd February

CATTERICK – FEBRUARY 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £39.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Catterick: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 5 (Spirit Of Rome) & 3 (Shine Baby Shine)

Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (The Last Day), 3 (Sam’s Gunner) & 5 (What’s The Scoop)

Leg 3 (2.25): 4 (Oak Vintage), 2 (Black Kettle) & 3 (Peppay Le Pugh)

Leg 4 (2.55): 3 (Planet Nine) & 5 (Dark Sunset)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Timon’s Tara), 1 (Same Circus) & 2 (Milly Baloo)

Leg 6 (4.05): 1 (Iskabeg Lane) & 4 (Mount Oliver)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.20: Harry Whittington remains an extremely underrated trainer from my viewpoint, invariably selecting realistic targets for his inmates such as in this instance with SPIRIT OF ROME.  That said, SHINE BABY SHINE is a worthy opponent, though I’m not sure where the lads and lasses in the trade press office plucked a price of 6/5 from regarding Phil Kirby’s raider.  Perhaps they were swayed by Phil’s recent 3/8 ratio, figures which have produced level stake profits of three points. Either way, this pair should take us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Favourites come to the opening event on a five timer today.

 

1.50: There is some semi-serious money accumulating in the positive queue on the exchanges for SAM’S GUNNER at the time of writing, though THE LAST DAY should take the beating in a race which is developing into a potential match according to the potential plays/lays in the dead of night.  WHAT’S THE SCOOP is as short as 7/2 in a place as I pen this column, though 11/2 if freely available on the exchanges.  WHAT’S THE SCOOP does have one stat on his side however, given that Sue Smith has saddled four of her last seven runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Catterick card

 

2.25: Eight-year-olds have claimed five of the eight available Placepot positions to date, stats which include two (9/2 & 9/2*) winners. OAK VINTAGE is preferred to BLACK KETTLE relating to the two vintage representatives on this occasion.  PEPPAY LE PUGH is the potential joker in the pack if you are choosing between the eight-year-olds at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 favourite finished last of the four finishers in a five runner (short field) contest before the following 10/3 market leader secured a silver medal alongside a Placepot position.  All was put right last year for investors, with the 9/2 jolly obliging.

 

2.55: Seven of the eight winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less though the pair of relevant horses on this occasion (one via a claim) are certainly up against it via the form book.  Others are preferred, especially the likes of PLANET NINE and DARK SUNSET who represent the in form yards of Rose Dobbin and Donald McCain respectively.
Favourite factor: Three of the nine favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one 7/4 winner).

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Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/3—Tomkevi (soft)

 

3.30: TIMON’S TARA was beaten half a length on Saturday when well fancied by yours truly.  I was on at 7/1 before Robin Dickin’s raider was backed to half of those odds before flag fall. Robin has not left time for the dust to settle and Jack Quinlan’s mount is expected to go close again. Soft ground course winners SAME CIRCUS and MILLY BALOO are feared most.  Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the land to back the fourth runner in the contest, namely Sheneededtherun!
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite was one of two horses which failed to complete the course in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/2—Same Circus (soft)

1/2—Milly Baloo (soft)

 

4.05:  ISKABEG LANE and MOUNT OLIVER represent the safest Placepot options in the finale, especially given the ‘insurance’ factor with laying off opportunities at very short prices, if the dividend looks like paying well before the ‘lucky last’.  Tommy The Rascal is the call to follow the pair home.
Favourite factor: All three favourites have secured Placepot positions (one 4/1** winner) via two renewals to date.

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Catterick card on Friday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

3 runners—Donald McCain (3/21 – loss of 6 points) – 37/168 – loss of 13

3—Sue Smith (3/15 – loss of 9 points) – 27/93 +73

2—George Bewley (First runners at Catterick this year) – 2/21 +24

2—Julia Brooke (0/4) – 0/6

2—David Dennis (First runners at Catterick this season) – 1/7 – loss of 4

2—Micky Hammond (3/26 – level on the year) – 12/151 – loss of 68 points

2—Rebecca Menzies (0/4) – 4/26 – loss of 6

2—Neil Mulholland (2/5 – loss of 1 point) – 3/10 – loss of 5

2—J A Nash (No previous runners at Catterick in the last five years)

2—Evan Williams (0/1) – 2/9 – loss of 1 point

+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

39 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield: £131.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £583.30 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 6 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 24th January

CATTERICK – JANUARY 24 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £24.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 3 (Jaunty Flyer) & 9 (Teescomponents Lad)

Leg 2 (1.55): 1 (Pinch Of Ginger), 9 (Major Ridge) & 8 (Ronnie Lawson)

Leg 3 (2.30): 4 (Sakhee’s City), 3 (Jimmy Breekie) & 5 (Apterix)

Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Bentelimar), 2 (Cracking Find), 4 (Somewhere To Be) & 3 (Justforjames)

Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Kelka) & 5 (Totalize)

Leg 6 (4.05): 6 (Derrynane) & 7 (Notebook)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: The front pair in the market finished well clear of their rivals twelve months ago, albeit in the wrong order for the majority of the investors.  We appear to have a similar race in prospect here, with JAUNTY FLYER and TEESCOMPONENTS LAD having been declared.  I wouldn’t back either horse to win the race with your money though from a Placepot perspective, there appear to be few alternative options.  Haasab looks booked for third spot from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions at odds of 9/4 and 8/11 respectively.

 

1.55: Nine-year-olds have won five of the last seven contests (my selection finished second last year at 10/1) and this year’s two relevant entries MAJOR RIDGE (won the race twelve months ago) and RONNIE LAWSON will both represent yours truly in the Placepot mix this time around.  That said, PINCH OF GINGER demands plenty of respect and is added into the equation.  Donald McCain is the leading trainer at this corresponding meeting in recent times and with five of his last eleven runners having won, PINCH OF GINGER will be a popular order at around the 3/1 mark I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Four of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one successful (joint) favourite.  Ballabriggs won this event in 2010, the year before Donald McCain’s raider went on to secured Grand National glory at Aintree.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Major Ridge (soft)

 

2.30: Six, seven and eight-year-olds have won seven of the ten renewals contested during the last eleven years between them, via less than 56% of the total number of runners (60/108).  Last year’s first named raider finished second at 33/1 and the pick of the three relevant representatives on this occasion appear to be SAKHEE’S CITY, JIMMY BREEKIE and APTERIX.  The latter named raider represents Brian Ellison who also saddles the fourth vintage contender Always Resolute.
Favourite factor: Five of the eleven favourites have finished in the (exact science) frame, statistics which include one (7/2**) successful favourite from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Zeroshadesofgrey (soft)

1/1—Sakhee’s City (good to soft)

1/2—Always Resolute (soft)

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3.00: Micky Hammond’s runners can rarely be ignored in this part of the country whatever prices are in evidence whereby I will be include Micky’s outsider of four here, namely JUSTFORJAMES.  Yes, the other three horses are more logical winners but the thought of the ‘rag’ winning to set fire to so many Placepot units is too difficult to resist.  For the record, the other trio is listed in marginal order of preference as BENTELIMAR, CRACKING FIND and SOMEWHERE TO BE.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Catterick card.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/3—Cracking Find (good to soft)

 

3.35:  Although matters would take a distinct turn for the worse if a non runner reared its ugly head in this event, I feel duty bound to rely on KELKA and TOTALIZE (preferred in that order) to get us safely through to the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Another new event on the Catterick programme.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Kelka (soft)

 

4.05: Seven-year-olds had secured six of the twelve available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four of the five (12/1-7/2*-11/4*-9/4*) winners.  Indeed, last year’s only vintage representative scored and it would come as no shock if the likes of DERRYNANE or the 2016 winner NOTEBOOK added to their tally.  When approaching the last leg of our favourite wager, it’s as well to have short priced horses on your side on occasions because if the dividend looks likely to pay well with just the one leg to overcome, you can lay fancied horses to be placed at really short odds is you want to take out ‘insurance’.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/2 favourite was brought down by the only faller in the contest at the first flight five years ago.  The 2013 meeting was abandoned when we were all trapped in our homes via snowdrifts before the next two market leaders obliged.  Last year’s 4/1 market leader scraped into a Placepot postion by securing a bronze gong.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

3/7—Snowed In (2 x good to soft & soft)

2/3—Notebook (2 x soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Micky Hammond (3/22 +4) – 12/147 – loss of 64

4—Victor Thompson (First runners at Catterick this season) – 0/2

3—Laura Mongan (0/3) – 0/5

3—Sue Smith (3/13 – loss of 3 points) – 27/91 +75

3—Brian Ellison (1/5 – level profit/loss on the season) – 18/66 – loss of 14

2—Rose Dobbin (2/10 +2) – 2/38 – loss of 25

2—Joanne Foster (0/3) – 1/36 – loss of 31

2—Iain Jardine (First runners at Catterick this season) – 0/13

2—Donald McCain (2/19 – loss of 8) – 36/166 – loss of 14

2—Tim Vaughan (0/3) – 0/14

2—Mark Walford (First runners at Catterick this season) – 1/24 – loss of 21

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

49 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Exeter: £37.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unpalced

Lingfield: £95.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £460.50 – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced