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Racing Insights, 21st April 2021

Wednesday's free 'feature of the day' is the excellent Trainer Statistics report, whilst the free 'races of the day' are scheduled to be...

  • 1.55 Perth
  • 4.10 Perth
  • 4.35 Lingfield
  • 4.50 Dundalk
  • 5.05 Catterick
  • 7.30 Taunton

And we're heading to North Yorkshire for a bit of Déjà vu in the 5.05 Catterick, a 10-runner, Class 6 Apprentice handicap over 5f on good to firm (good in places) ground. I covered a similar race two weeks ago (see here), where I was (wrongly) fairly dismissive of Harrogate's chances (he finished 2nd of 8) and I also looked at trainer Eric Alston's five year handicap record here at Catterick.

Well, roll forwards two weeks and here we are again, Harrogate now looks like being a fairly warm favourite and Eric Alston (like myself) has another crack at landing a Catterick winner. I won't bore you by digging into the Alston stats as I did a fortnight ago, as they're only the losing bet from that day different and we'll just crack on and see if Harrogate is a justified fav here, starting with the card itself...

This was an 11-runner contest originally, but Moveonup doesn't run after all, but we do still have ten to consider...

Requiem's Dream won back to back 5f contests the day after each other in mid July 2019, the latter of which was here over course and distance, but hasn't hit those heights since. She has only raced twice in almost 15 months and looked rusty at Musselburgh earlier this month after the best part of 10 months off. Well down in weight from her handicap debut, but still off the top mark here and others make more appeal.

Gorgeous Gobolina has two wins and a place from her last seven outings, but hasn't raced on turf for six months since being beaten by just over a length and a half in a Class 4 contest off a mark of 61. This is two grades further down and she's 2lbs lighter here and would have a great chance, but for possibly needing the run.

Harrogate ran far better than I expected last time out and arguably better than he has done for some time, but it has to be said that he was still beaten by four lengths and goes off the same mark here, so he'll need to improve to justify the short price, especially as he's on a 16-race losing streak.

Boudica Bay is the Eric Alston-trained mare here and she's interesting in this contest, because of her career record of 5 from 30, she's actually 5 from 7 in Class 6 Flat handicaps over 5f on ground with the word good in the official description! She had a wind op during a five and a half month layoff over the winter and looked like she needed the run last time out when beaten on unsuitable tapeta, but this former C&D winner can do better here.

Tiltilys Rock is another former C&D winner, having scored here in early July of 2020 and he followed that up 15 days later by narrowly winning a 15-runner handicap at Beverley. A 5lb rise and the step up to 6f did him no favours in three outings after that, before reverting to 5f in a 10 length defeat at Nottingham six months ago. He hasn't been seen since and although now only a pound higher than his last win, will probably need the run here and some improvement.

Red Stripes has certainly been around the block a few times and is set to make his 170th appearance here. His last 24 runs have all been on the All-Weather and now returns to turf action for the first time since September 2020. His Flat record of 1 from 43 is pretty discouraging, but he does have a 30% place strike rate and had three very near misses in a row last July going down by half a length at Class 5 twice and then by a neck at Class 4. Those runs came off marks of 64, 64 and 65, yet here he is in a Class 6 off 47. He could well cause a bit of a surprise here.

Newgate Angel has won just one of 24 career starts and that was five races and over eight months ago at Beverley. She rounded that season off with defeats of 8.5L, 9.5L and 10L before taking a 19 week break. She showed little promise on her reappearance last month when 9th of 10, beaten by 10 lengths and she's probably just not good enough here.

De Latour has had 20 goes at getting off the mark and has rarely looked like doing so for three different trainers. He was beaten by almost seven lengths in a non-handicap contest last time out and looks destined to struggle here or in Tuesday night's 7.30 Southwell where he is also entered. I don't see him going well in either if I'm brutally honest.

Bluella is another who has been given lots of opportunities but hasn't really taken them as seen in her 1 from 32 record including 0/9 on turf. She has already raced six times this year and was beaten by almost 12 lengths over 5f in a minor Class 6 contest last time out. That was her last run for Mick Appleby and now debuts for her fourth handler in three years.

Corton Lass makes up the list of runners and riders and I wouldn't be surprised if she's last on the result list either. Timeform describe her as "ungenuine" and it's easy to see why, after failing to win any of her 31 starts to date, making the frame just three times. She's likely to need a run after over six months off track and she was beaten by almost 9 lengths and 13.5 lengths in her last two outings and she's off the same mark as the first of those defeats.

After looking at each of the runners, it's a fair bit clearer why Harrogate is likely to be a fairly warm favourite, but I think that says more about the lack of quality in the race than it does about him, because I don't think he's very good either, he's just possibly one of the least poor runners in this poor race. In fact, between them, these ten horses have raced 385 times, making the frame just 107 times (27.8%) including a mere 30 wins (7.8% SR). It's easy to argue that those numbers are skewed by Red Stripes' 169 previous runs (43.9% of all the field's runs), but he has made the frame 61 times (36.1%) winning 14 (8.3%) of them, so if anything his presence boosts the numbers!

It might be prudent to look at both the win & place stats for Instant Expert, as some of these have few/no wins in Flat handicaps and hopefully the two graphics will point us in the right direction...

It's pretty clear from the win graphic that the Alston runner, Boudica Bay, has shown the best form under today's conditions and is 6lbs lighter than his last win and whilst Tiltilys Rock's win numbers have some green, the figures are the same for places implying a win or bust string of results. Red Stripes' consistency is highlighted in the place figures and Harrogate shows up well there. Essentially, the poor Corton Lass aside, Red Stripes, Harrogate and Boudica Bay have been the busiest but also the most consistent at making the frame with Boudica Bay easily the most successful in terms of actual wins.

Draw...

By stalls sector...

Obviously if we try to split 10 stalls into three groups, we're going to get more runners in one sector, but it's the percentages and the A/E and IV etc figures that matter most here and the basic gist here is that middle drawn runners would appear to struggle most with low draw being the best.

By actual stalls numbers...

Stall 1 would appear to have that legendary/fabled "golden corridor" TV presenters often look for and apart from that fairly anomalous looking result, the other stalls seem to share the winners around. In essence, stall 1 is great, but if you're in one of the other nine you've still as much chance as most of your rivals.

Pace...

Here, however, there is a distinct bias and it's quite simple : the further forward you can race the better your chances, so natural leaders fare really well here and those who like to leave it late often get the fractions wrong. One might suggest that in an Apprentices' race, such hold-up tactics would be even more perilous than usual.

Pace & Draw...

Here's a really simple, but effective way of showing how the four running styles interact with the three draw sectors and if you're a leader drawn high, you're in a great position, as opposed to hold-up horses with a low/mid draw, who just don't seem to win here.

And our pace/draw projection...

We now know our draw and how the draw affects results, we can now look back on our runners' last four races to get an average of their race positions and we can overlay their draw and pace onto that heatmap above and that gives us in stall order...

And it is here that Harrogate finally gives us an inkling of why he's likely to go off fairly short. Not only does he have what looks like a perfect draw/pace make-up, he's also the only real pace in the entire race, although Red Stripes and Newgate Angel aren't too disadvantaged there either.

Summary

I suppose this piece again revolves around Harrogate and the Eric Alston angle from the Trainer Statistics report via his runner Boudica Bay. If I'm totally honest, I don't really lie any of the ten runners on offer here, but I'd expect both of Boudica Bay and Harrogate to make the frame here and I'll make up my three against the field with the old warrior Red Stripes.

Harrogate should be winning this from that draw, but he's not particularly well treated at the weights, running off the same mark as a four length defeat last time out. Boudica Bay has better stats, receives weight from the fav and has ideal race conditions here, whilst Red Stripes is carrying so little weight that he has every chance of turning the clock back.

So, here's where I'm at. I fancy these three to make the frame, I can't back Harrogate at Hills' 15/8 and certainly not at Bet365's 11/8 and I'm not even convinced he'll win. Boudica Bay and Red Stripes will run him close and if things fall just right, then that 10/1 from Hills about Red Stripe could be huge. I'd rather back the old boy E/W than back the fav here.

 

Racing Insights, 7th April 2021

Wednesday's 'feature of the day' is the tremendous Trainer Statistics report, which will hopefully assist you in finding winners across the card, including our free races of the day, which are set to be...

  • 1.45 Catterick
  • 3.30 Lingfield
  • 4.05 Lingfield
  • 4.30 Gowran Park
  • 6.30 Gowran Park

And today. I think I'll combine the feature of the day with a race of the day and also pay a small homage to SotD as we assess the chances Eric Alston's Captain Corcoran in the 1.45 Catterick. Eric's five-year handicap record at Catterick looks like this...

...and he has just the one runner on the card and the 4 yr old gelding is set to compete in this 8-runner, Class 6, Apprentices Handicap over 5f on Good to Firm ground, that will be good in places and they're watering the track to keep it that way. It's a race for 4yo+ horses, so all should have plenty of relevant experience for us to assess and here's how they line up...

Before I look at the runners in individual detail, let's quickly look at Eric Alston's record here. We already know that since the start of the 2017 season, his handicappers are 13 from 41 (31.7% SR) here at Catterick, but under today's conditions, those 41 are...

  • 10 from 24 (41.7%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 9 from 33 (27.3%) from male runners
  • 8 from 23 (34.8%) at Class 6
  • 6 from 14 (42.9%) after making the frame LTO
  • 5 from 12 (41.7%) over this 5f C&D
  • 3 from 12 (25%) as 4 year olds
  • 3 from 10 (30%) in fields of 6-8 runners
  • 1 from 5 (20%) on Good to Firm
  • 1 from 2 (50%) in April
  • and 1 from 1 in Apprentice handicaps...

...all of which suggests Captain Corcoran might well have a chance here. He now returns to action after a break of some 28 weeks since finishing as a runner-up over 5f at Redcar where he was on the wrong side of the draw/pace, but beat his "section" of the field. Josh Quinn's 3lb claim will be useful here, as he goes off the same mark as last time and he retains the hood in which he has finished 4142.

He won't want the ground any drier than it already is and he might well need the run, but the yard has been amongst the winners over the last month (3 from 9) and if he's ready to go first up, he has every chance here, especially as Eric Alston has a decent record with Flat handicappers winning after a 6 month-plus layoff (1 from 1 this season so far after Jabbarockie's win on Saturday)

And now to the rest of the field, starting with top weight Not On Your Nelly, who has 2 wins and 2 places from 5 handicap runs to date. She's the only filly in the race and is the only other in the race without a recent run, having not been seen for 175 days since being beaten by 2.5 lengths at Nottingham. Faye McManoman retains the ride, but can't claim her usual 5lbs here, so that's going affect the filly's chances off the same mark and the places are probably the best she can hope for here.

Ustath is better than his 0 from 7 Flat record would suggest and has 3 wins and 4 places from 11 starts on the A/W (all at Southwell) since the start of November. He was gutsy stepped up to 7f for the first time three weeks ago, when only beaten by 4.5 lengths and a similar effort off a pound lower could him get involved here.

Harrogate might sound like the champion Arrogate to us Northerners, but that homophone is as close as they'll ever get. This version is 0 from 15 in the last 21 months, making the frame just twice. He has, in fairness, got closer to the winner in his last two starts, going down by just 2 lengths and 1.75 lengths in two 5f runs at Newcastle last month. Unfortunately, his flat mark is 3lbs higher than his last A/W mark, so he's going to have to improve plenty here.

Alsvinder is a former course and distance winner (July 2018), but has failed to score on any of his last twenty runs! He has, however, continued to run creditably in defeat and was only beaten by three parts of a length last time out. That was over 6f off a mark of 70 just 12 days ago and he might be dangerous here off just 57, if 5f isn't too sharp for him and he'll be aide by one of the better apprentices in the form of Billy Garritty.

Blackcurrent has a win and two third-place finishes from his last four runs, all on the A/W at Southwell, but was beaten by the thick end of eight lengths last time out, seeming to toil from 2f out after a 3lb rise to a mark of 52. He goes off the same mark here and with no disrespect intended to today's jockey Gemma Tutty, he won't have the skills/experience of Hollie Doyle in the saddle to coax him on.

Carlovian is much better on turf than he is on the A/W, but a flat record of 7 from 53 isn't earth shattering either. On the Flat, he has run her eat Catterick more times than anywhere else and has won 3 of his 16 visits, but is 0 from 3 over this 5f C&D. In fact, he's just better over 6f and 7f and I don't fancy his chances here.

Bottom-weight Suwaan runs off a feather light 45, but that's probably because he is 0 from 35 since the end of August 2017! And that would make him a write-off for many readers, but closer analysis shows he has made the frame in 11 of his 27 Flat runs, which at 40.7% is a decent return for a horse with just 1 win from those outings. He ahs only been beaten by an aggregate of 6.5 lengths over his last three runs and whilst he's highly unlikely to win here, he could very well surprise a few by making the frame again.

When we look at the entire field as one and consider their career performances across all spheres, this is what we see...

...lots of amber which is promising and a few splashes of green. Our focus horse, Captain Corcoran looks well suited, as do all of the top five in the weights bar Harrogate to be fair with only Blackcurrent looking like one to avoid at this point. The next thing to consider is actual Flat handicap form, with the obvious caveat that none of them have raced on turf for some time...

Here Ustath doesn't look as good as he did, but we expected that from a 0/7 record all at a higher grade than this, but the flip side is that Carlovian's numbers are improved. There are also some very interesting weight differences here with three runners running off marks much lower than their last win.

From a draw perspective, the sweet spot in similar past races has been stall 3, which is more good news for Alsvinder, with those boxed either side also faring well, so ticks for Nellie & Suwaan here...

It is admittedly a fairly small sample size, but we've a rough idea of where we'd want to be, so how to approach a 5f dash here? Well, essentially, lead or race prominently...

and with those draw and pace stats in hand, we can amalgamate them into the pace/draw heat map...

...which basically says low to mid-draw leaders fare best and it can be a struggle from elsewhere. In fact, low drawn leaders have 2 wins and 3 places from 5 runs, so it's now time to superimpose on to the heatmap how recent history suggests our runners will break out from their respective draws and in draw order...

...we could well have a bit of a tear-up on our hands with four of five going at it from the off. There is, of course, the danger that one or more of them does too much early on and opens the door for Alsvinder and Suwaan to pounce late and only Not On Your Nellie looks inconvenienced, although stall 2is almost as good as she could have hoped for.

Summary

We started by looking at Eric Alston and his gelding Captain Corcoran and I do like the horse here. He's probably as good as anything he faces in this contest, but I'm just concerned that he'll need the run after 196 days off the track, especially as he was well beaten on his 2020 reappearance after 236 days rest, albeit in a better race than this off a higher mark.

I don't think many will beat him, though, if he does lose and I see the main danger coming from Alsvinder, who has ticked boxes all along and I reluctantly make his my preferred pick here ahead of Captain Corcoran. The market would seem to agree at 5.30pm, installing the two as 11/4 and 7/2 principals, but for my third pick, I've got a feeling that something at bigger odds will cause a surprise and make the frame.

To this end, I'm looking at Suwaan and even Ustath at 17/2 and 11/1 respectively. I don't have much between them but the former just shades it and it looks like he's attracting money already. I won't try to dissuade you from having a small E/W (or win & place at the exchanges) tickle on Ustath, but I just feel Suwaan is marginally better placed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Racing Insights, 27th October 2020

Sometimes, things just come together and today was one of those days at Redcar. We highlighted the 10/3 winner at 5/1 and the 5/1 runner-up E/W as a 12/1 E/W pick and I know some of you jumped on the forecast that paid out at 18.5/1, but much bigger last night at Bet365's BOG prices, I'd assume.

The favourite ran well enough but was fairly soundly beaten as I’d hoped and Striding Edge did indeed come home stone last again. All of which is excellent news for us, but is already history. We've no time to dwell as we look forward to Tuesday, where Feature of the Day is the Shortlist report  and the free races are as follows...

  • 1.30 Bangor
  • 2.10 Catterick
  • 3.40 Bangor
  • 4.00 Chepstow

And at the risk of it becoming a samey/repetitive, I'm going to do another race preview of one of our featured races, the 2.10 Catterick, which actually looks like a tricky little contest that could develop into a really good race, as all six could well win it based on my initial brief glance at the cards, so let's take a closer look at this 6- runner, Class 4 Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on soft ground, where the winner will receive £5,208 for their efforts.

As ever, we start with what we already have available ie the racecard and I've sorted it into speed rating order again for you...

There's not a great deal separating the first four listed on the speed ratings, so they're initially the ones of interest to us, whilst Grace and Virtue stands out from the green icons highlighting the yard's past success at this venue.

As today's free report is the Shortlist, we'll next consider the more detailed version of it that we all know as Instant Expert, firstly by place...

...where we have plenty of green with four runners having 50% or better placing on soft ground, whilst Byron's Choice has a really return over 7f, although as seen below, he's in the frame more than the winners' enclosure...

...again lots of green, but from small sample sizes, but the above tells me that Grace and Virtue is the one most proven on soft ground. The going is often a major factor in these small field potentially-tactical affair, where the draw is key. History tells us that in this kind of contest you want to be drawn centrally in box 3 or 4 as below...

...which could be good news for Lord Oberon and I Am A Dreamer, whilst the pace draw heat map suggests that being drawn middle to high alone isn't enough, you also need to race prominently or even lead...

...which when we overlay today's runners...

...says that Lord Oberon does indeed have the best draw for his usual running style, whilst only Ey Up It's Mick seems to be in a poor spot. However, at this point, I'm still not at a point where I've got a pick, nor am I discounting any of them just yet, so let's look at each of them in turn...

Byron's Choice : is a reasonable 4 from 21 on the Flat including 3 from 10 at 7f and 2 from 5 under jockey Callum Rodriguez. he's a former Class 3 winner and won on his only previous visit to Catterick when landing the spoils over course and distance back in June 2018.

He went on to win again two weeks later, but hasn't since won in 13 attempts over 27 months and hasn't won on Soft ground either, but show signs of a return to form when third at Ayr last time out, beaten by less than a length off today's mark.

Ey Up It's Mick : is a really consistent sort having made the frame in 9 of his last 13 outings, winning three of them, but has no win in his last six races since landing a Class 5, 6f contest on Good to Soft off a mark of 67 back in July. He was third of 13 last time out, 3.5 lengths off the pace here over course and distance ten days ago off today's career high mark of 73.

All three career wins have been at a lower grade than this, but he has won over this trip, likes the soft ground (2 wins) and has 2 wins and a place from four under today's jockey, Kevin Stott.

Grace And Virtue : Scores well on the data above and comes here in the best form of all six runners, with three wins and two runner-up finishes from her last six starts. She's 3 from 6 on turf, all under today's jockey Tony Hamilton, finishing 2141 over this 7f trip and 2 from 2 on soft ground and she receives a 2lb allowance here.

So, a surefire odds on jolly, then? Probably not, although she'll be popular, it's not all great news. All her best form is at Class 5, her worst run on turf came at this level and she's up 7lbs to a career-high 77 after winning last time out.

I Am A Dreamer : This 4 yr old carries the burden of top weight and on form of 706834 looks bang out of it, but all those six runs were at Class 2 immediately after winning in this grade seven races ago. He's only two pounds higher than that last win and he's 1 from 1 over course and distance via a soft ground, Class 4 success last autumn. And if he runs to the same level as his last two efforts at Class 2, he'll be in the mix here.

Lord Oberon : Also featured prominently in the data stack above and looks well drawn for his running style. Down in weight and class for this run, having ran at Classes 2 & 3 for his last 13 outings without too much joy since winning a Class 2 contest over this trip on soft ground almost a year ago. I do like him from the data profiling above, but form is a worry. I'd need him to be a nice price to tempt me.

In his favour however are a series of conditions that could help him back to some form, he has won on soft ground, he has two wins at trip, he's a former Class 2 winner, goes best without headgear/tongue tie, he's 2 from 4 going left handed and seems happiest with fewer rivals around him. All positives, but I'd still want a realistic price.

And finally, Praxeology : somewhat of a shock 50/1 runner-up when only beaten by two lengths here over course and distance last out under a 5lb claimer. He's up a pound for that run and with a different jockey on board, he's effectively 6lbs worse off. However, the jockey is Hollie Doyle who is (a) in continual good nick and (b) 10 from 47 (21.3%) on David Loughnane's horses since the start of 2019.

The horse himself has a win and a place from three soft ground runs and has won previously at both Class 2 & 3, but has failed to land any of his three races beyond 6f, so whether he does stay 7 is unclear.

Summary

I'm not entirely convinced that I've clarified anything here and it's still as muddy as it might well be underfoot for the race itself, but here's where I'm at. The favourite, Grace And Virtue isn't for me at sub-3/1, although she has every chance, whereas I did like Lord Oberon, but he's also looking like being dragged down towards the 10/3 and 3/1 price point, which I'm not really keen on either.

Praxeology and Ey Up Its Mick both ran well here over course and distance, finishing 1.5 lengths apart, but I think the latter is better off here.

And that leaves us with Byron's Choice and I Am A Dreamer. If the former runs like he did last time out (and it's a big if), then 5/1 might look quite generous, whilst the latter was my original preference early doors. Like Byron's Choice, we're looking for a reproduction of a past run  from I Am A Dreamer and again we're not guaranteed to get it, but again 9/2 might be a good price.

The verdict? The smart bet is no bet at all, it's too competitive, but it's an interesting contest so I might well have 0.5pts apiece on Byron's Choice and I Am A Dreamer.

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Newbury : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Slight lead, narrowly headed halfway, in front again 3f out, headed over 1f out, no extra in 3rd inside final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start, as is usually the case, with the racecard...

This 3 yr old gelding won a similar Class 5, 7f flat handicap two starts and 11 months ago before a 311 day spell on the sidelines. He returned from that long break to finish third over 7.5f at Beverley, when beaten by just a head and a neck in a contest where the write-up says...chased leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and no extra towards finish...

I'd expect him to come on for that run 24 days ago and the slight drop back in trip should also help him see this one out at a track where our report suite suggests that today's trainer and jockey fare well together.

And it's the David O'Meara/Danny Tudhope/Catterick trainer/jockey/course angle that I'll be pursuing today. That recent 50% strike rate is, of course, excellent, but I think we need a few more in our sample size to hang a bet upon, so how about...O'Meara + Tudhope + Catterick + 4/1 & shorter + 2016-now? Which gives us...

from which there has been...

  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 14.97pts (+44%) over trips of 5-7f
  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 12.25pts (+36%) wit 2-4 yr olds
  • 14/28 (50%) for 11.45pts (+40.9%) from July onwards
  • 12/23 (52.2%) for 11.5pts (+50%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.19pts (+18.2%) from horses placed LTO
  • 9/12 (75%) for 19.71pts (+164.2%) in fields of 11-15 runners
  • 8/20 (40%) for 5.4pts (+27%) at Class 5
  • and 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 9.26pts (+115.7%) on good to soft ground...

...and a composite angle from the above? Hmmm, OK, how about 2-4 yr olds racing over 5-7f  for less than £4k from July onwards at 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) and 7.03pts (+63.9% ROI) profit? An angle that also includes a 100% strike rate in fields of 11+ runners (4 from 4), 71.4% from runners placed LTO (5 from 7) and 50% strike rates (2 from 4) at class 5 or on good to soft ground...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Newbury : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Slight lead, narrowly headed halfway, in front again 3f out, headed over 1f out, no extra in 3rd inside final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start, as is usually the case, with the racecard...

This 3 yr old gelding won a similar Class 5, 7f flat handicap two starts and 11 months ago before a 311 day spell on the sidelines. He returned from that long break to finish third over 7.5f at Beverley, when beaten by just a head and a neck in a contest where the write-up says...chased leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and no extra towards finish...

I'd expect him to come on for that run 24 days ago and the slight drop back in trip should also help him see this one out at a track where our report suite suggests that today's trainer and jockey fare well together.

And it's the David O'Meara/Danny Tudhope/Catterick trainer/jockey/course angle that I'll be pursuing today. That recent 50% strike rate is, of course, excellent, but I think we need a few more in our sample size to hang a bet upon, so how about...O'Meara + Tudhope + Catterick + 4/1 & shorter + 2016-now? Which gives us...

from which there has been...

  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 14.97pts (+44%) over trips of 5-7f
  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 12.25pts (+36%) wit 2-4 yr olds
  • 14/28 (50%) for 11.45pts (+40.9%) from July onwards
  • 12/23 (52.2%) for 11.5pts (+50%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.19pts (+18.2%) from horses placed LTO
  • 9/12 (75%) for 19.71pts (+164.2%) in fields of 11-15 runners
  • 8/20 (40%) for 5.4pts (+27%) at Class 5
  • and 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 9.26pts (+115.7%) on good to soft ground...

...and a composite angle from the above? Hmmm, OK, how about 2-4 yr olds racing over 5-7f  for less than £4k from July onwards at 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) and 7.03pts (+63.9% ROI) profit? An angle that also includes a 100% strike rate in fields of 11+ runners (4 from 4), 71.4% from runners placed LTO (5 from 7) and 50% strike rates (2 from 4) at class 5 or on good to soft ground...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!