Posts

Monday's pick was...

7.00 Wolverhampton : Reeves @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led early, tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, kept on to take 2nd place towards finish) : three runners-up on the bounce for us now!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy ground worth £4,549 to the winner...

Why?...

Similar to yesterday, in that I've little of substance to choose from at the right price, but the shortness of the fav here means we'll get a decent price about this 7 yr old gelding, who has finished 312 in his last three outings, having only gone down by two lengths over course and distance in a stronger/higher class race last time out 25 days ago after winning here again over C&D two starts ago.

He's by Sir Percy, whose offspring are 11 from 50 (22% SR) for 12.78pts (+25.6% ROI) over trips of 3m to 3m5f since the start of 2017, including of relevance here...

  • 10/40 (25%) for 19.27pts (+48.2%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 9/39 (23.1%) for 15.9pts (+40.8%) over hurdles
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 15.53pts (+119.5%) during the first quarter of the year
  • and 4/12 (33.3%) for 2.74pts (+22.8%) on soft or heavy ground

He's also running out of a yard that knows how to train stayers, as trainer Sam England's record at 3m1½f to 3m3½f currently stands at 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 60.8pts (+196.1% ROI) and these include of note today...

  • 10/28 (35.7%) for 63.8pts (+227.8%) from 6-10 yr olds
  • 10/25 (40%) for 66.8pts (+267.2%) ridden by Jonathan England
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 52.1pys (+236.6%) from December to April
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 67.7pts (+322.4%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.6pts (+156.5%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 54.1pts (+284.5%) in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 7/14 (50%) for 22.4pts (+159.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 25.1pts (+193.3%) over 3m1½f
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 45.5pts (+350.2%) at Class 4
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.4pts (+191.3%) here at Catterick, all over today's course and distance...

...whilst Sam + Jonathan + 3m1½f to 3m3½f + 6-10 yr olds + Dec-April + 11/30 dslr + 7/1 max odds = 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) for 29.5pts (+268.3%) and these runners include 6/10 after a top 3 finish LTO, 4/6 at this trip, 4/5 here at Catterick (all over C&D) and 1/1 at Class 4. Those 11 also include Ask Paddy who is currently (8.50am) priced at 11/4 BOG to win the previous 4.15 race on this card...  

...but my selection is...a 1pt win bet on Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet at 8.00am Tuesday,but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Thursday's pick was...

2.45 Ffos Las : Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Chased leader to 7th, weakened after 14th, tailed off and well beaten

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Good to Soft ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?...

He might be 12 yrs old now, but he still looks to have at least one more win in him, based off his last two runs where he made the frame in tougher contests than this and on worse ground. Harry Reed steered him in those last two runs and he's on board again today as they go off the same mark as LTO.

This old boy is 5/22 (22.7% SR) in handicap chases, a decent return and he's hardly done the miles you'd expect of a 12 yr old and of those 22 runs, he has achieved the following strike rates under today's conditions...

  • 44.4% after 11-25 days off track (4 from 9)
  • 40% over trips of 2m½f to 2m4f (4/10)
  • 38.5% at odds of 4/1 and shorter (5/13)
  • 33.3% in January (2/6)
  • 31.25% off a mark of 99-110 (5/16)
  • 27.8% in fields of 5-9 runners (5/18)
  • 22.2% in cheekpieces (4/18)
  • 21% at Class 4 (4/19)

...and in 6-9 runner, Class 4 handicap chases at 4/1 and shorter wearing cheekpieces over 2m½f to 2m4f off marks of 100-110 after 11-25 days rest, he is 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 6.66pts (+166.4% ROI).

Trainer Tristan Davidson's horses are going well, having won 4 of 15 (26.7% SR) for 6.49pts (+43.3% ROI) over the last 2 months and he's a rare breed in that if you had followed him religiously for the last two years, you'd have made yourself a nice pot of money.

Not many trainers (especially at this level) are profitable to follow blindly over any extended period of time, but in the last two years backing Tristan's horses would have given you 35 winners from just 134 runners with the 26.1% strike rate yielding a level stake profit at betfair SP of 75.2pts at a cracking ROI of some 56.1%. Under some of today's conditions, those runners are...

  • 34/119 (28.6%) for 86.7pts (+72.9%) in races worth £8k or less
  • 32/106 (30.2%) for 87.5pts (+82.5%) in fields of 6-13 runners
  • 23/102 (22.6%) for 18pts (+16.8%) as Tristan's only runner of the day
  • 22/64 (34.4%) for 97.6pts (+152.4%) when racing 35 to 95 miles from home
  • 21/69 (30.4%) for 47.9pts (+69.4%) in NH contests
  • 21/64 (32.8%) for 39.5pts (+61.7%) were placed LTO
  • 17/58 (29.3%) for 45.5pts (+78.4%) with Harry Reed in the saddle
  • and 12/38 (31.6%) for 31.1pts (+81.8%) at Class 4

...whilst with just one or two runners on the day, Tristan's NH runners set just 35 to 95 miles from home to compete in 6-13 runner contests for £8k or less are 15/29 (51.7% SR) for 71.2pts (+245.7% ROI), including...

  • 11/21 (52.4%) for Harry Reed
  • 8/15 (53.3%) at Class 4
  • 6/14 (42.9%) were placed LTO
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for Harry at C4
  • 5/10 (50%) for Harry with LTO placers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for C4 runners placed LTO
  • and 3/6 (50%) for Harry at C4 on LTO placers...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 8.05am Friday morning from Bet365, BetVictor & Spreadex (but please check your BOG status first, latter is non-BOG) and then more widely available by 9.00am. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.

Monday's pick was...

12.30 Ffos Las : Out The Glen @ 10/3 WON at 3/1 (Mid-division, headway and in touch 3rd, went 2nd 4 out, led going best before 2 out, ridden between last 2, kept on well to win by the best part of 2 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2,55 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on good to soft ground worth £6,758 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep it nice and simple today with an 11 yr old gelding who still seems full of life, having won last time out with a bit to spare despite a mistake at the last over at fairly nearby Sedgefield on soft ground three weeks ago.

That win took his record over fences to 4 from 11, which is decent at this level and includes of relevance today...

  • 4/10 (40%) going left handed & 4/8 (50%) under jockey Danny Cook
  • 3/8 (37.5%) at Class 4 & 3/8 (37.5%) on Good to Soft/Soft ground
  • 3/6 (50%) in November/December & 3/5 (60%) at odds below 4/1
  • 4/4 (75%) within 3 weeks of his last run & 2/5 (40%) at trips shorter than 17f
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) in December...

...whilst his trainer Sue Smith is 22 from 50 (44%) with chasers here at Catterick over the last 6 years with a £10 level stake on all 50 yielding a profit of £685.30 or 137.1% of stakes invested. This highly impressive record includes...

  • 13/30 (43.3%) for 39.7pts (+132.2%) with Danny Cook in the saddle
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 29.61pts (+141%) at Class 4
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 6.57pts (+164.4%) with LTO winners...

...all of which is enough to support...a 1pt win bet on Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.05pm on Monday. Do use BOG if possible, as this one might drift a little, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday's pick was...

3.50 Brighton : Long Call @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Slowly away in rear, pushed along over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, nearest finish)

Tueday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

B Fifty Two @ 4/1 non-BOG until morning

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

This "boy" might be 10 yrs old now, so he's probably more of an "old lad", but recent events have suggested there's still plenty of life left in him yet. He has finished in the first three home in each of his last six starts, winning twice (inc LTO 7 days over over this course and distance under today's jockey) and suffering two very narrow defeats along the way.

He's only up 2lbs for his latest effort here, but does drop down a class at a venue he likes. He has certainly been around the block a few times, but he's not averse to picking prize money up, having made the frame in 25 of 83 (30%) of his starts on the Flat : a decent return at this level and includes 9 winners (10.84% SR).

Of note amongst his 9 wins and 16 further places are...

  • 8 + 14 within 30 days of his last run and 6 + 14 in handicaps
  • 6 + 13 with a tongue tie and 6 + 3 going left handed
  • 4 + 10 over a 6f trip and 4 + 1 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2 + 6 under jockey Jane Elliott and 2 + 3 here at Catterick
  • and 2 + 3 over course and distance

The above-mentioned jockey Jane Elliott doesn't get too many rides to be honest, but she has done well here at this track winning 5 of 24 (20.8% SR) for 16.5pts (+68.7% ROI) profit, including...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 27.5pts (+211.5%) at odds of 10/1 and shorter
  • 4/20 (20%) for 15.7pts (+78.5%) in handicaps
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 18.6pts (+124%) at Class 6
  • 3/10 (30%) for 20.24 (+202.4%) over this 6f C&D
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 6.26pts (+156.4%) on Good to Firm ground

...whilst in Class 6 handicaps at 10/1 and shorter, Jane is 3/6 (50% SR) for 22.8pts (+380% ROI) here at Catterick, including 2/4 over this 6f C&D and 1/1 on Good to Firm.

And finally, as this horse was a winner LTO just a week ago, you might (or might not, of course) be interested to know that today's trainer Marjorie Fife is 7 from 31 (22.6% SR) for 34.1pts (+110.1% ROI) in Flat handicaps over the last four seasons with LTO winners turned back out after less than three weeks rest and these runners include...

  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 43.5pts (+256.1%) during July to September
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 7.93pts (+52.8%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 39.2pts (+435.6%) over a 6f trip...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on B Fifty Two @ 4/1 non-BOG until morning as was available from Betfair/Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Tuesday's pick was...

4.20 Epsom : Swift Approval @ 9/2 6th at 9/2 (Chased leaders, lost place over 3f out, driven over 2f out, kept on inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.25 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redrosezorro @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm/Good ground worth £4,075 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner last time out 23 days, when scoring at this class/trip at Carlisle and although up 5lbs for that win, the booking of jockey Harrison Shaw negates that rise, not that Harrison is an inferior replacement : he's already 3/13 at this venue this season and has ridden 2 winners from 8 for today's trainer Eric Alston (more on him shortly) this season.

The horse looks to have favourable conditions today, as his career record includes...

  • 5 wins, 5 places from 22 in a hood
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 16 in fields of 11-14 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 6 at odds of 9/4 to 9/2
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Catterick
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 over 6f
  • and 1 win plus 1 pace from 2 efforts over course and distance

Trainer Eric Alston is 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 36.74pts (+193.3% ROI) with handicappers sent off at 12/1 or shorter here at Catterick over the last three seasons, whilst during that same time period his overall record with LTO winners stands at 9/44 (20.5% SR) for 40.87pts (+92.9% ROI), including of note/relevance today....

  • 9/42 (21.4%) for 42.87pts (+102.1%) in handicaps
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 43.66pts (+121.3%) on the Flat
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 60.01pts (+285.8%) in fields of 11-17 runners
  • 7/34 (20.6%) for 43.12pts (+126.8%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 7/34 (20.6%) for 14.33pts (+42.2%) within 25 days of the last run/win
  • 6/25 (24%) for 12.8pts (+51.2%) at the same class as LTO
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 23.59pts (+138.8%) from August to November
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 14.71pts (+113.2%) from previous C&D winners
  • 3/12 (25%) for 12.33pts (+102.7%) at Class 5
  • 3/10 (30%) for 20.48pts (+204.8%) from 5 yr olds
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 12pts (+300%) here at Catterick...

...whilst those competing in 11-17 runner Flat handicaps at the same class or one higher over the same trip or up 1f as an LTO win in the previous 25 days are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 30.27pts (+336.3% ROI) including Redrosezorro's own course and distance success in April 2018...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Redrosezorro @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.35pm on Tuesday (Although non-BOG until morning Hills were a full point bigger). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.45 Wolverhampton : Flood Defence @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Took keen hold, prominent, ridden over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Same Circus 10/3 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Good ground, worth £4159 to the winner... 

Why?

This 8 yr old mare has won 3 of her last 8 starts, all at Class 3 and/or Listed class and now turns out on a Class 4 race here today at a track where 3m6½f was probably too far for here last time out, but she does have 2 wins and a place from 5 previous visits in total, including a win and a runner-up finish from her two hurdling efforts over course and distance. Further positives come in the figures of 3 wins from 6 in cheekpieces and 3 wins from 4 in Feb/March.

Her trainer, Donald McCain, was the centre/focus of the recent EI outbreak, but his horses now seem fit and well with 7 top 3 (including 3 winners) finishes from 11 attempts so far this month and he has done historically well in handicaps at this venue. So much so, that you could have actually just done a "bet and forget" job on them and made money!

Numerically, we're looking at 23 winners from 114 runners (20.2% SR) in NH handicaps here at Catterick since the start of 2013 generating 11.3pts profit at a handy 9.9% ROI from purely blind betting. Ideally, we'd cut some losing bets out and increase the ROI, so here's where the 23 winners came from...

  • all 23 came from 91 (25.3%) sent off at 10/1 or shorter for profits of 34.3pts (+37.7%)
  • 17 from 80 (21.25%) for 24.6pts (+30.7%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 14 from 63 (22.2%) for 18.1pts (+28.7%) aged 7-10 yrs old
  • 7 from 14 (50%) for 22.4pts (+1650%)
  • 6 from 19 (31.6%) for 17.84pts (+93.9%) with a jockey claiming 6-8 lbs
  • 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 2.31pts (+33%) from those with a previous C&D win
  • and 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 12.63pts (+157.9%) with Abbie McCain in the saddle

If you wanted a little McCain/Catterick microsystem, you could simply follow his 5-10 yr olds in fields of 6-11 runners at odds of 10/1 and shorter. This approach has been good for 17 winners from 60 (28.3% SR) for 44.6pts (+74.3% ROI) profit, from which hurdlers are 12/38 (31.6%) for 28.2pts (+74.2%) with Abbie riding 2 winners from 4 (50%) of those 38 hurdlers for 13.14pts at an ROI of 328.5%.

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Same Circus 10/3 BOG which was available in around half a dozen or so places at 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Thursday's Pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Finoah @ 10/3 BOG yet to run (report to follow) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Scented Lily @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG  

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Good ground worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

A 5 yr old mare who was a winner by almost 5 lengths LTO 34 days ago over 3 miles at Market Rasen. She looked to have plenty left in the tank/reserve, so I'm hoping an extra 285 yards and 5lbs won't be enough to anchor her today.

Stat-wise, she's a qualifier on a relatively simple micro-system I have stored, which basically says that horses priced in the broad 6/4 to 14/1 spectrum (there are no real clusters of winners at either end to skew figures, though) racing 21-60 days after winning a Novice hurdle race are 106 from 583 (18.2% SR) for 94.9pts (+16.3% ROI) in handicap hurdle contests since the start of 2013.

As usual, 583 bets over nearly 6 years might be too many from one angle for most people, so you could consider...

  • those who won by 5 lengths or less LTO : 76/394 (19.3%) for 98.9pts (+25.1%)
  • 4/5 yr olds are 44/252 (17.5%) for 40.7pts (+16.1%)
  • those last seen 31-45 days ago are 31/186 (16.7%) for 39.9pts (+21.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 36/180 (20%) for 35.3pts (+19.6%)
  • over trips of 2m6f to 3m2f : 34/159 (21.4%) for 42pts (+26.4%)
  • those stepping up in trip by 1-2 furlongs are 24/126 (19%) for 42.1pts (+33.4%)
  • female runners are 21/104 (20.2%) for 40.4pts (+38.9%)
  • and in November/December : 17/81 (21%) for 25.8pts (+31.8%)

...and a broad composite from above?...4/5 yr olds who won by 5L or less 21-45 days earlier are 15/45 (33.3% SR) for 73.8pts (+164% ROI) over trips of 2m4.5f to 3m2f...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Scented Lily @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG, prices offered by Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.15pm on Thursday evening. (I will, of course, use 3/1 for my official records) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday's Pick was...

3.20 Stratford : Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Mid-division, headway 2 out, soon chasing leaders, kept on same pace approaching last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chitra @ 5/1 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 6, Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Good ground, worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 2yr old filly has finished 121 in Nursery races so far, all over 6f and all at Class 6, including landing a big-field (19 ran!) contest LTO at relatively nearby Redcar 13 days ago. She was better than the half length margin of victory would suggest that day, as he was prominent throughout and quickly asserted control with a furlong to run, looking like she had plenty in hand.

She's the only distance winner in this field whose career tally to date stands at just 3 wins from 65, of which she is 2 from 6!

Her trainer Daniel Kubler sends her here today in a bid to improve an already decent record with LTO winners who are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 8.78pts (+48.8% ROI) when sent off in handicap races at odds of 5/1 and shorter over the last four years. Of those 18, Class 6 runners are 3 from 7 and jockey Tony Hamilton is 1 from 2, but more relevant today are the following from those 18 LTO winners...

  • Daniel's only runner at the track : 6/15 (40%) for 8.38pts (+55.8%)
  • less than 3 weeks rest : 6/15 (40%) for 6.24pts (+41.6%)
  • in fields of 7-12 runners : 7/13 (53.8%) for 13.78pts (+106%)
  • same trip as LTO win : 4/10 (40%) for 7.76pts (+77.6%)
  • same class as LTO win : 4/10 (40%) for 5.26pts (+52.6%)
  • and at the same class and trip as the LTO win : 3/5 (60%) for 8.48pts (+169.6%)

Now, Daniel also has just one runner at Brighton today, who is another LTO winner, also priced shorter than 5/1 in a Class 6 handicap. She also runs in a 12-runner field at the same class (and track, too) as her last win and with Daniel having a decent record at Brighton, I'd not dissuade you from a small punt on Nyala at 4/1 BOG in the 4.35 race...

...but my main selection is... a 1pt win bet on Chitra @ 5/1 BOG, a price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's Pick was...

2.35 Chester : Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Raced keenly, chased leader on inside until 3f out, handy 3rd, switched right and stayed on inside final furlong, 2nd again final 50 yards, flattered by proximity to comfortable winner) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good ground, worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is arguably carrying enough weight today (more on that shortly), but he does appear to be bringing the best form to the table for this contest, having finished 24122 in his last five starts on turf. He handles pretty much all ground conditions and of his four turf wins to date...

  • all 4 were after a short break of 1 to 5 weeks
  • 3 were at Class 6
  • 3 were over today's 1m4f trip
  • 3 were on left handed tracks
  • and 1 (from just two rides) were with today's jockey, Theodore Ladd (who claims 5lbs)

Gong back to the weight issue, Albert Boy's best form is off marks in the high 50's, so today's 61 is probably as high as I'd be comfortable with, although he did win off 68 in the past, so I'm pleased to see a 5lb claimer in the saddle. This effectively puts him 2lbs lighter than when beaten by just 2 lengths LTO over half a furlong shorter, staying on well and closing in late on.

I had it in my mind that trainer Scott Dixon had done well at placing these 5lb claimer jockeys in the past, so I took a closer look and saw that since the start of 2013, his Class 6 runners were 13 from 71 (18.3% SR) for 22.5pts (+31.7% ROI) when partnered by such riders and those 71 included of relevance today...

  • at 11/1 and shorter : 13/46 (28.3%) for 47.5pts (+103.3%)
  • 4 to 15 days since last run : 8/41 (19.5%) for 23.5pts (+57.2%)
  • 2017/18 : 10/40 (25) for 36.53pts (+91.4%)
  • on the Flat  :9/36 (25%) for 33.3pts (+92.4%)
  • August - October : 8/259 (27.6%) for 27.8pts (+96%)
  • 5/1 and shorter : 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.6pts (+115.4%)
  • Catterick : 4/16 925%) for 10pts (+62.6%)
  • LTO runner-up  :3/10 (30%) for 6.4pts (+64%)
  • Theo Ladd in the saddle : 2/5 940%) for 9.35pts (+187%)
  • beaten by 1 to 2 lengths LTO : 2/3 966.6%) for 9.36pts (+312%)

And as for this promising claimer, Theo Ladd, you might be surprised to read that he's actually been profitable to follow blindly so far in his short (170 rides) career, winning 24 times (14.1% SR). A £10 stake on all his rides to date would have yielded £464 profit at an ROI of 27.3% and his stats include...

  • on the Flat : 18/100 (18%) for 62.5pts (+62.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 16/92 (17.4%) for 58.2pts (+63.3%)
  • at Class 6 on the Flat : 12/52 (23.1%) for 53.9pts (+103.6%)
  • using his 5lb claim : 5/32 (15.6%) for 10.2pts (+31.7%)
  • at Catterick : 2/12 916.6%) for 2pts (+16.6%)
  • at Class 6 on the Flat using his 5lb claim : 2/6 (33.3%) for 9.06pts (+151%)
  • and at Class 6 on the Flat using his 5lb claim here at Catterick : 1/2 (50%) for 2.56pts (+128%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 6.30pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's Pick was...

2.35 Chester : Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Raced keenly, chased leader on inside until 3f out, handy 3rd, switched right and stayed on inside final furlong, 2nd again final 50 yards, flattered by proximity to comfortable winner) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good ground, worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is arguably carrying enough weight today (more on that shortly), but he does appear to be bringing the best form to the table for this contest, having finished 24122 in his last five starts on turf. He handles pretty much all ground conditions and of his four turf wins to date...

  • all 4 were after a short break of 1 to 5 weeks
  • 3 were at Class 6
  • 3 were over today's 1m4f trip
  • 3 were on left handed tracks
  • and 1 (from just two rides) were with today's jockey, Theodore Ladd (who claims 5lbs)

Gong back to the weight issue, Albert Boy's best form is off marks in the high 50's, so today's 61 is probably as high as I'd be comfortable with, although he did win off 68 in the past, so I'm pleased to see a 5lb claimer in the saddle. This effectively puts him 2lbs lighter than when beaten by just 2 lengths LTO over half a furlong shorter, staying on well and closing in late on.

I had it in my mind that trainer Scott Dixon had done well at placing these 5lb claimer jockeys in the past, so I took a closer look and saw that since the start of 2013, his Class 6 runners were 13 from 71 (18.3% SR) for 22.5pts (+31.7% ROI) when partnered by such riders and those 71 included of relevance today...

  • at 11/1 and shorter : 13/46 (28.3%) for 47.5pts (+103.3%)
  • 4 to 15 days since last run : 8/41 (19.5%) for 23.5pts (+57.2%)
  • 2017/18 : 10/40 (25) for 36.53pts (+91.4%)
  • on the Flat  :9/36 (25%) for 33.3pts (+92.4%)
  • August - October : 8/259 (27.6%) for 27.8pts (+96%)
  • 5/1 and shorter : 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.6pts (+115.4%)
  • Catterick : 4/16 925%) for 10pts (+62.6%)
  • LTO runner-up  :3/10 (30%) for 6.4pts (+64%)
  • Theo Ladd in the saddle : 2/5 940%) for 9.35pts (+187%)
  • beaten by 1 to 2 lengths LTO : 2/3 966.6%) for 9.36pts (+312%)

And as for this promising claimer, Theo Ladd, you might be surprised to read that he's actually been profitable to follow blindly so far in his short (170 rides) career, winning 24 times (14.1% SR). A £10 stake on all his rides to date would have yielded £464 profit at an ROI of 27.3% and his stats include...

  • on the Flat : 18/100 (18%) for 62.5pts (+62.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 16/92 (17.4%) for 58.2pts (+63.3%)
  • at Class 6 on the Flat : 12/52 (23.1%) for 53.9pts (+103.6%)
  • using his 5lb claim : 5/32 (15.6%) for 10.2pts (+31.7%)
  • at Catterick : 2/12 916.6%) for 2pts (+16.6%)
  • at Class 6 on the Flat using his 5lb claim : 2/6 (33.3%) for 9.06pts (+151%)
  • and at Class 6 on the Flat using his 5lb claim here at Catterick : 1/2 (50%) for 2.56pts (+128%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 6.30pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's Result :

4.50 Warwick : The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Tracked leader, led before last, kept on, ridden out to win by a length...

We start a new week with Monday's...

4.05 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 3, 3m1.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,707 to the winner...

Why?

Well, for a start, we know that trainer Sue Smith targets this race, having won it three times in four years and the that she has two of today's six runners is also a pointer in that direction. I just feel that our pick is her better option and the jockey booking (Danny Cook) would appear to back that up.

Our runner won this race himself two years ago and is unbeaten in three visits to Catterick : all over fences including...

  • 2 x handicaps
  • 2 at Class 3
  • 2 at 3m1f/3m1.5f
  • 2 with Danny Cook
  • 1 on soft ground

Meanwhile, Sue's horses are going well, winning 1 in 5 over the past month (8/40) rising to a 25% strike rate in the lats 7 days (3/12), whilst here at Catterick since the start of 2014, she has 27 winners from 93 (29% SR) for profits of 96.77pts at a phenomenal ROI of some 104.1%.

Amongst those 93 Catterick entries...

  • handicappers are 19/59 (32.2%) for 38.1pts (+64.6%)
  • those ridden by Danny Cook are 15/42 (35.7%) for 29.5pts (+70.2%)
  • chasers are 18/37 (48.7%) for 63.6pts (+171.9%)
  • those racing over 3m1f and beyond are 14/36 (38.9%) for 34.45pts (+95.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 13/32 (40.6%) for 51.3pts (+160.3%)
  • those racing at Class 3 : 11/23 (47.8%) for 39.75pts (+172.8%)
  • those with a previous Catterick win are 12/17 (70.6%) for 45.38pts (+266.9%)

AND...Smith / Cook / Catterick / Soft ground / Handicap Chase = 3/3 (100% SR) for 18.92pts (+630.8% ROI) since the start of 2016, all at Class 3.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG which was generally available at 5.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's Result :

4.50 Warwick : The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Tracked leader, led before last, kept on, ridden out to win by a length...

We start a new week with Monday's...

4.05 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 3, 3m1.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,707 to the winner...

Why?

Well, for a start, we know that trainer Sue Smith targets this race, having won it three times in four years and the that she has two of today's six runners is also a pointer in that direction. I just feel that our pick is her better option and the jockey booking (Danny Cook) would appear to back that up.

Our runner won this race himself two years ago and is unbeaten in three visits to Catterick : all over fences including...

  • 2 x handicaps
  • 2 at Class 3
  • 2 at 3m1f/3m1.5f
  • 2 with Danny Cook
  • 1 on soft ground

Meanwhile, Sue's horses are going well, winning 1 in 5 over the past month (8/40) rising to a 25% strike rate in the lats 7 days (3/12), whilst here at Catterick since the start of 2014, she has 27 winners from 93 (29% SR) for profits of 96.77pts at a phenomenal ROI of some 104.1%.

Amongst those 93 Catterick entries...

  • handicappers are 19/59 (32.2%) for 38.1pts (+64.6%)
  • those ridden by Danny Cook are 15/42 (35.7%) for 29.5pts (+70.2%)
  • chasers are 18/37 (48.7%) for 63.6pts (+171.9%)
  • those racing over 3m1f and beyond are 14/36 (38.9%) for 34.45pts (+95.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 13/32 (40.6%) for 51.3pts (+160.3%)
  • those racing at Class 3 : 11/23 (47.8%) for 39.75pts (+172.8%)
  • those with a previous Catterick win are 12/17 (70.6%) for 45.38pts (+266.9%)

AND...Smith / Cook / Catterick / Soft ground / Handicap Chase = 3/3 (100% SR) for 18.92pts (+630.8% ROI) since the start of 2016, all at Class 3.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG which was generally available at 5.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Catterick

Please note, I've been in Prague for the last five days and I'm travelling home this afternoon/evening, so Tuesday's pick will go out much later than usual. Hopefully before 11pm, but keep an eye on the site/social media to be sure!

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Tuesday's Result :

3.00 Ludlow: Tb Broke Her @ 7/2 BOG WON at 4/1 Held up towards rear, not fluent 9th, headway on outside 17th, ridden before 4 out, left in lead 2 out, stayed on, clear towards finish to win by five lengths....

Next up is Thursday's...

1.30 Catterick:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Workbench @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m on Soft ground worth £8,058 to the winner...

Why?

Well, he might be 10 yrs old now, but this well-related (brother to Class 1 winners Sprinter Sacre, Saint Are & Dame Rose) gelding is still running well and has won two of his last five starts, including a win last time out 34 days ago wearing today's blinkers for the first time.

His trainer Dan Skelton had an excellent year last year with his chasers and since the start of 2017, those runners are 56/208 (26.9% SR) for 53pts (+25.5% ROI), including...

  • those ridden by Harry Skelton : 45/156 (28.9%) for 65.5pts (+42%)
  • after a rest of 3 weeks or more : 40/140 (28.6%) for 75.2pts (+53.7%)
  • over trips shorter than 2m2f : 22/67 (32.8%) for 37.5pts (+56%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/55 (30.9) for 24.6pts (+44.8%)
  • on soft ground : 15/44 (34.1%) for 7pts (+15.8%)

AND...from the above : those ridden by Harry Skelton over trips shorter than 2m2f after a rest of 3 weeks or more = 14/38 (36.8% SR) for 41.8pts (+109.9% SR), of which Class 3 runners are 5/14 (35.7%) for 17.74pts (+126.7%).

PLUS...more long-term, based on today's race conditions, Dan Skelton has the following strike rates....

  • 30.4% here at Catterick over the last 3 years (7 from 23)
  • 23% from LTO winners over the last 5 years (99 from 431)
  • 18.9% from those racing over trips shorter than 2m2f (209 from 1104)

Dan's LTO winners racing over trips shorter than 2m2f have a 26.1% strike rate (49 from 188), whilst more generally, 10 yr old chasers from the sire Network are 5/15 (33.3% SR) for 15.7pts (+104.7% ROI)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Workbench @ 7/2 BOG which was widely on offer with BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday's Result :

2.55 Pontefract : Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 5/1 : Led, ridden and headed 2f out, chased winner until over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong...

Tuesday's selection goes in the...

4.10 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The New Pharaoh @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

A Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f on soft ground...

And a 6 yr old gelding who is 3 from 9 over this trip and has soft ground form. he's also 2 from 8 in this grade, but has won at Class 4 too, whilst he's 2 from 6 returning from a short 16 to 30 day absence.

Paul Mulrennan rides him for the first time, but he does have a near 19% strike rate in Class 5 & 6 races at 1m4f and shorter here at Catterick over the last six seasons, whilst trainer Chris Wall does well with horses dropping in class.

In fact, since 2008, his handicappers dropping down one class are 34 from 190 (17.9% SR) for profits of 49pts at an ROI of 25.8% and of these 190 class droppers...

  • males are 18/83 (21.7%) for 36.9pts (+44.4%)
  • those finishing 3rd to 5th LTO are 10/53 (18.9%) for 20.7pts (+39%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 5/20 925%) for 19.4pts (+96.8%)

...providing us with... a 1pt win bet on The New Pharaoh @ 11/4 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, Betfair, Coral, Paddy Power & Sunbets at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Thursday's Result :

6.00 Yarmouth - Whosyourhousemate @ 7/2 BOG - 4th at 11/4 : Tracked leader, ridden to challenge over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, no extra final 100 yards...

Friday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Catterick

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sellingallthetime @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 5 handicap over 1m4f on Good to Soft ground for 3yo+ horses ridden by amateur riders, so possibly not the best race you'll see today, but there are reasons to side with a 6 yr old gelding who has already won over course and distance in the past, so let's have a look...

Firstly, his trainer Mick Appleby is 14/86 (16.3% SR) for 26.1pts (+30.3% ROI) profit at this North Yorkshire track over the last five seasons, including...

  • at this 1m4f C&D : 7/27 (25.9%) for 42.5pts (+157.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/27 (18.5%) for 23.6pts (+87.3%)
  • and at Class 5 over this 1m4f C&D : 3/8 (37.5%) for 30.25pts (+378.2%)

Sellingallthetime now drops down a grade to run in this contest and since 2011, Mick Appleby's Class 5 Flat handicappers dropping down from Class 4 are 15/88 (17.1% SR) for 66.9pts (+76% ROI), which include...

  • males at 11/58 (19%) for 73.5ts (+126.7%)
  • those running after a short break of 11-30 days are 8/49 (16.3%) for 53.8pts (+109.7%)
  • and males who last ran 11-30 days ago are 5/25 (20%) for 58.9pts (+235.6%)

And as this is an amateur riders' handicap, jockey bookings are very important as some amateurs are clearly far better than others and if push comes to shove in a tight finish, you know the jockey can make all the difference.

This is why I'm happy to see Serena Brotherton's name next to our pick, as she's actually profitable to back blindly in handicaps! Since 2008, she has 80 winners from 440 (18.2% SR) for 147.7pts (+33.6% ROI) profit, which are excellent numbers and in the terms of today's contest, those figures relate to...

  • her only ride of the day : 74/392 (18.9%) for 165.7pts (+42.3%)
  • in Amateur Riders' handicaps : 72/385 (18.7%) for 107pts (+27.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 29/143 (20.3%) for 77.4pts (+54.2%)
  • this year alone : 5/31 (16.1%) for 45.1pts (+145.5%)
  • and here at Catterick, she is 3 from 12 (25%) for 2.75pts (+22.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sellingallthetime @ 9/2 BOG which was available with Bet365 , Betfred, Marathon and Totesport at 9.30pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!