Tag Archive for: Catterick racecourse

Racing Insights, Friday 02/02/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have sadly produced no UK qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.25 Southwell
  • 4.25 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 7.15 Newcastle

Our UK free races are a Class 4 Novice hurdle and a Class 6 A/W sprint, neither of which really appeal to me, so I'm going to have a look elsewhere and I've spotted a stayers' contest on testing ground that might be interesting. It's the 3.35 Catterick, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 3m1½f on soft ground that may be heavy in places...

Shantou Moon and Champ Royal both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last four, but steps up a class here, as does Not Staying Long who won three races ago. Danny The Fence won four starts back, Sam's Choice won five back and Shantou Moon 7 races ago.

Only Guernesey and Balkotic have failed to win in seven and their losing runs currently stand at 10 and 7 races respectively. Guernesey might find this a little easier in first-time cheekpieces as he now drops down a level, whilst top-weight Sam's Choice is down two classes.

The entire field have raced in the last 18 to 45 days, so no fitness excuses are to be expected and the bottom three on the card, Not Staying Long, Shantou Moon and Balkotic are all course and distance winners with Shantou Moon achieving the feat last time out three weeks ago and is raised 4lbs for that run, as shown on Instant Expert...

Shantou Moon looks the pick there off an admittedly small number of races and he won well here over course and distance last time out. Guernesey has a couple of Class 4 wins under his belt but has yet to win in seven on soft ground, which would be a concern if he hadn't made the frame in three of them as seen below where Sam's Choice and Balkotic are also of interest...

Our Pace Analyser suggests that there are rewards for those willing to take the race on and set the tempo...

...which based on recent efforts, would appear to be another positive for Balkotic...

...although Shantou Moon did win here over course and distance on soft ground from a hold-up position three weeks ago.

Summary

Fairly straightforward race for me to quickly zip through. Shantou Moon won well here last time out on soft ground, isn't raised too much by the assessor, scores well enough on Instant Expert and should be the one to beat here. His pace profile suggests he'd find it difficult and that might well be the case if there were a few keen to get on with it, but there isn't, so I'd still side with the 4/1 (Hills @ 5.1pm) Shantou Moon here.

On his day, the 6/1 (Bet365) Guernesey would be my second option and he wasn't beaten by far at Kelso the last time he ran at this grade finishing second just three quarters of a length adrift two months ago off today's mark and a similar run here puts him very much in contention for at least a place, as should/could Balkotic's early pace, especially if he's allowed a soft lead. He was a runner-up here over course and distance last time out off this mark and will fancy it again. He's currently 13/2 and with bookies paying three places, both he and Guernesey could be viable E/W options.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 11/01/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.55 Southwell
  • 1.00 Clonmel
  • 2.20 Fontwell
  • 3.05 Catterick

Neither UK option above enthuses me too much, but we do have an interesting looking race to cover in the 2.30 Catterick, an 8-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over 3m6f on soft ground...

Bushypark won this race on heavy ground by 3.5 lengths last year and comes into having won last time out, as do Court At Slip and Crixus's Escape. Court At Slip has won three of his last six and Bushypark is two from six, whilst Ladronne and Glittering Love are both winless in ten starts and Shadows In The Sky is a six-race maiden.

Bushypark and Ladronne both raced at Class 3 last time out, but the other six all step up at least one class with the bottom two on the card, Crixus's Escape and Shadows In The Sky both making a double step up. Bushypark and Shadows In The Sky are the only two runners without any headgear or tongue ties and half of this field are already 10yrs old or more.

The entire field has raced in the last two to four weeks, so all should be race-ready. Bushypark's success in this race last year not only makes the sole course and distance winner, but also the only one to have won at this trip. Elsewhere, only Ladronne has won on this track and that was a 3m1f chase way back in mid-November 2022 and was the last time he won a race (he's now a pound lighter that run).

More race-relevant stats can be found via feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...where last year's winner Bushypark is the early eye-catcher. No Cruise Yet and Glittering Love have decent soft ground records and the former has also won a couple of stayers' chases, whilst the latter's 0 from 9 at Class 3 is a bit of a concern. Court At Slip is largely untested under these conditions, but did win over 3m3½f on soft ground last March.

From a place perspective...

Bushypark again catches the eye off a fairly small sample size, but I'm drawn to No Cruise Yet on that data, because of the larger number of runs. The issue there seems to be a record of just one placed finish from four at Class 3, which would be a concern to be if I didn't that he'd had three races at Class 2 and finished 132 in those three, so he shouldn't be outclassed here.

This pair are highly likely to be up with the pace, especially Bushypark, who doesn't seem to run any other way if his last four runs are anything to go by...

...and the report of last year's race said..."jumped well throughout, made all, ridden and ran on"...

He is however, some 5lbs higher than his last/highest winning mark and he concede chunks of weight all round, but our pace analyser suggests his front-running style is the way to go here.

Summary

There's a lot to like about Bushypark's chances of winning this race for a second time on the bounce, but I fear that fellow pace-maker No Cruise Yet might well stalk and ultimately outstay him.

If these two do battle and take too much out of each other, that could open the door for the third horse on the pace chart, Court At Slip to get involved too.

This could well be a fairly tight contest as 3m6f soft ground chases go, but these are the three I'd want to focus on and if pushed to put one slightly ahed of the others, I think I'd side with No Cruise Yet.

All three are sadly sub-6/1 in the 5.30pm market, so I've no E/W selection today.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 31/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I'm Spartacus, Goobinator and Cold Henry would of the the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 12.20 Curragh
  • 2.25 Bangor
  • 3.30 Bangor
  • 6.45 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

And from the two Newcastle races from the free list and the three highlighted shortlist races, we've got Class 4 and Class 5 flat handicaps and A/W handicaps at Class 5 and Class 6 plus a Class 5 Novice race. These are hardly the best races, but I'll go with the highest rated, which sees Goobinator line up in the 2.17 Catterick, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 1m4f on heavy ground...

GOOBINATOR won back to back 2m½f handicaps on quicker ground than this back in July/September 2021 and hasn't raced since finishing 5th of 12 over 2m½f at Haydock 17 months ago, so might well need the run here. He's 1 from 1 over 1m4f, but most of his running is done over 2m to 2m1f and I fear this might be too sharp for him today, but he is down two classes from that last run.

REEL ROSIE stayed on really well to land a heavy ground 1m2½f handicap at Chester at the end of September, but was well beaten on soft ground next/last time out a fortnight ago. She's relatively untested on ground worse than good (1 win from 3) with most of her racing (12 starts) on good or good to firm ground. Only female in the race.

DARK JEDI won over today's trip at Ripon back in 2021, but is winless in fourteen starts since landing a Class 2, heavy ground 1m6½f handicap at Doncaster just over a year ago. He now runs off a mark some 16lbs lower than that win and could well be dangerously handicapped here, although he's only a pound lower than when a runner-up beaten by 6.5 lengths over this course and distance 10 days ago, struggling late on.

ANIMATO was a runner-up over this trip at Pontefract three starts ago and was third of nine at York last time out over an extended 2m on soft ground. He's back down in trip here and takes a drop in class whilst wearing a visor for the first time

GENESIUS won over this trip at Thirsk on soft ground just over four months ago and has made the first three home on each of his last three outings, including once over course and distance. He wasn't well positioned at Wolverhampton last time out and had to squeeze through a gap to run on for third, going down by a length and a quarter. Would have been closer with a clearer run.

GASTRONOMY is a ten-race maiden who has made the frame just once and was last of 5 in a 1m6f, soft-ground handicap at this course just over five weeks ago. He has been eased three more pounds (now 10lbs lower than April!) here and wears a tongue tie for the first time, but I fear he'll need more help than that.

Instant Expert says...

...that half of the field are untried on heavy ground, but Reel Rosie & Dark Jedi have won on it. Goobinator is the pick of the pack at this grade, but four of them do have reasonable records. Dark Jedi probably has the best overall make-up based on place stats, but his actual win record a this trip is a concern.

To get enough workable data from the draw analyser, I've had to open up the parameters somewhat, but in a logical manner and whilst there's not a huge pace bias (as you'd expect over such a trip with a small field)...

...those drawn highest have had a slight advantage, although I suspect race tactics aka pace will be the deciding feature here, so let's check the pace analyser for those races above...

Leaders do as well as expected (A/E = 1.00), but the prominent runner looks the one to be on, possibly picking the winner off late on. What is clear is that a prominent runner is more than twice as likely to win than a runner from further back. The way these runners have approached their most recent outings...

...suggests that Reel Rosie might well be afforded a soft/easy lead with the rest of the field fairly well bunched together, but if we apply our field's draw and running styles to out pace/draw heat map...

...it looks like the three main protagonists might be Genesius, Animato and Dark Jedi.

Summary

From the pace/draw heat map above we had Genesius, Animato and Dark Jedi and the latter was the pick of the bunch on Instant Expert. He might well be on a long losing run, but ran well last time out and is off a dangerous mark. this looks a poor contest that shouldn't take too much winning, so I'll side with Dark Jedi here. He's the current 5/2 fav with Hills and that's probably fair.

The only runner higher than Reel Rosie's 7/1 ticket is the 20/1 Gastronomy and I don't really fancy either for a place, as I think the bookies have it right when they say it'll be tight between Genesius (7/2) and Animato (4/1) and this ties in well with our pace/draw heat map.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 21/10/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated these qualifiers for me to consider...

30-day form...

5-year course form...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.05 Ascot
  • 3.35 Newton Abbot
  • 4.08 Market Rasen
  • 4.21 Limerick
  • 4.45 Market Rasen
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

...and I think we'll have a look at Bergerac and the 3.40 Catterick today. It's an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground...

The top two in the weights, Vintage Clarets and Wen Moon, both won last time out and Glorious Angel was a runner-up (in a race we covered here on Insights), but Vintage Clarets win was at this grade, whilst the other two are both up a class, as are Strong Johnson, Never Dark, Copper Knight, Dickieburd and Count D'Orsay!

Manila Scouse and Bergerac did run at Class 2 last time though, but bottom weight Zargun is up two classes despite not winning any of his last 16 outings; Bergerac and Count D'Orsay are winless in eight and nine respectively.

All of these have had at least one run in the last four weeks with most having raced last Friday at York finishing 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th and 10th, whilst Bergerac was withdrawn...

Zargun may well be out of form right now, but he won this race two years ago, making him one of four course and distance winners along with Manila Scouse, Dickieburd and Count D'Orsay, who won this race four years ago. None of the others have won here at Catterick, but all bar Bergerac have won over today's trip; his 'best' form has been over 6f so far and his failures at 5f are highlighted by Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Wen Moon and Never Dark will be much more at home on soft ground than the likes of Manila Scouse and Zargun, whilst most of these have toiled in this grade. Copper Knight is easily the most experienced here and has clocked up 10 wins from his 58 efforts at Class 2, which is a respectable 17.24% SR. Aside from Wen Moon's small number of qualifying runs above, there's not a great deal to shout about here, so let's check the place stats from those races...

...where Wen Moon and Manila Scouse have the best numbers and with no green for place form in any of going, class, course or distance, I'm happy to discount the claims of Bergerac, Never Dark, Copper Knight and Strong Johnson, who come from stalls 4, 7, 8 and 10, so I'm hoping that if there's a draw bias at all, it favours those drawn lowest!

Sadly for me and my reckoning, that's not the case...

...but that doesn't mean we can't still be on the right track. At the end of the day, it's a 5f dash over a straight track and there really shouldn't be massive advantages from a particular stall and it's generally pace that wins the race over the minimum trip and here at Catterick, those 30-odd races above back up my theory...

...and this is backed up by the three best pace/draw combo positions all being taken by horses who led...

...and based on recent performances, this could mean another big run from Glorious Angel. She was in a race we covered last week and was only headed very late on, going down by a neck and looking at her last four runs, I suspect she'll attempt to make all here again...

...which gives us the following heat map...

Summary

From our pace/draw heat map, Glorious Angel looks to have a great chance of at least making the frame and at an early price of 9/1, I'd be inclined to have a small E/W bet on her. She has been the runner-up in three of her last five, but is on a long losing run, so for me Wen Moon and Vintage Claret are the ones to beat.

The latter doesn't look too good on that heat map, but raced prominently last time and beat Wen Moon by a neck in a big-field £30k handicap at York. He's actually 3lbs better off with the runner-up here, so with a similar approach in this race, I'd take the 4/1 Vintage Clarets to beat the 3/1 Wen Moon.

Glorious Angel is the E/W pick, of course, but Count D'Orsay might well be dangerously overpriced at 12/1 and with quite a few firms paying four places...

 



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/09/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where all those rated at 10 or higher are at least worth a second glance and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 1.40 Leicester
  • 4.15 Catterick
  • 5.15 Laytown
  • 5.25 Galway
  • 7.25 Galway

I do, where possible, try to 'marry up' the daily free feature with the free racecard list and that's actually possible today, as 11-rated on The Shortlist Vadamiah runs in the 4.15 Catterick (as does 9-rated Texas Man of course), a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good/good to soft ground...

Despite the disparity on the SR figures, this looks a tight, competitive affair, where our feature horse Vadamiah (one of two females in the race) carries top weight, but she does drop three classes here after finishing well down the field (although only 3.5 lengths down) in a £50k Class 2 handicap at the Ebor meeting three weeks ago. Fellow female Havagomecca drops down one class here, as do Castin and Albegone.

Birkenhead steps up a class after back to back runner-up finishes, a pair of results matched by Murbih and with no LTO winners in the field, these two bring the best form to the table, but Papa Don't Preach, Murbih and Jojo Rabbit are winless in 8, 13 and 12 respectively and all three have pretty dismal win records on turf.

Castan is the sole 3 yr old in the field and gets a 1lb allowance for that and he's one of five previous course and distance winners here. All nine have won at least once at this trip and only Havagomecca, Papa Don't Preach, Murbih and Jojo Rabbit have yet to win here at Catterick. Mind you, that last trio who are on long losing runs are 0 from 10, 0 from 13 and 1 from 17 respectively on the Flat, so a win here would be a surprise!

No fitness issues with them all having raced in the last month or so, but Murbih did run on Saturday and although it's a short turnaround, that was his best effort for some time. Instant Expert highlights the poor Flat win records of this trio and also shows why Vadamiah and Texas Man are on The Shortlist...

There's really not a great deal to write home about there with possibly only the two shortlisted runners and Castan emerging with much credit and even the latter has struggled on the going. When i said this might be tight/competitive, I didn't actually say that it was a decent quality, though! Perhaps the place stats will show some of these in a better light...

Well, they say that Castan is better on the going than at first suggested, but the others who looked best on the win stats haven't really enhanced their positions and have been caught up by some of the others. I've seen enough about Papa Don't Preach and Jojo Rabbit to discount them from my thoughts now, though. They're both drawn middle to high here in a race that doesn't (in my opinion) display any real bias or advantage from a stalls positioning...

..but it's one where the emphasis is clearly on early speed as this illustrates only too well...

...and with this field's recent efforts looking like this...

...you'd have to think that Vadamiah would have an excellent chance of grabbing the lead and therefore running on for at least a place and I think if we just look at the field's last two outings we'll get a more realistic view of how they might break...

Summary

It's probably easier if I start by saying who I don't really fancy here! I already ruled out Papa Don't Preach and Jojo Rabbit at an early point and I think that pace will be the undoing for Texas Man and Havagomecca's chances of landing this and that's probably the same for Birkenhead. He's in good nick, but doesn't win often enough and with more than half the field setting off quicker than him, a place is his best shot.

Of the five ahead of him, none are really prolific, but Vadamiah loves it here. Murbih doesn't win on grass and I think Castan is the most interesting of all of them. He may only be 2 from 12 on Turf, but has made the frame seven times, all his best runs have been at this trip and the going will suit him. He has one win and one place from three efforts over course and distance and at 10/1 looks a decent E/W punt for me.

As for a winner? Stick a pin in the card! If pushed Vadamiah's course record and his all-out pace profile probably tip the balance his way, but is he a 10/3 shot here? I'd expected double that, so I'll leave the win bet alone on value, but I expect him to go well.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 25/01/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 1.23 Fairyhouse
  • 2.35 Warwick
  • 2.45 Catterick
  • 3.00 Newcastle

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated just one UK qualifier as follows...

30 day form...

...and as the in-form Bolsover Bill runs in a 'free' race, it makes sense for me to take a quick look at the 2.45 Catterick, where I suspect he'll be well fancied to land this 10-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over the thick end of 2m3½f on soft ground...

As seen on the TS report graphic above, Bolsover Bill is in great form and seeks a 4-timer here, but Roccowithlove also won last time out , whilst both McGarry and Ribeye have wins in the recent form line. Dogem by Design looks the weakest on form.

Dogem was pulled up after losing touch LTO and has been beaten by 38, 43 and 74 lengths in his other three UK starts and at 3lbs out of the handicap, I'm happy to cross him off my list on his chasing debut.

The majority of this field all raced at this Class 5 level last time, but three of them drop down a grade; the top two in the weights, Crack du Ninian & Where's Hector along with last year's winner of this race, Relkadam.

That win last year of 8lbs higher than today makes Relkadam one of just two previous course and distance winners, along with featured runner, Bolsover Bill. The only other course or distance success from this bunch was Roccowithlove's win here over 3m1½f thirteen days ago for his first chase success.

I've already discounted Dogem By Design and at 63 days, he's been off the track the longest with the others all having raced in the last month; Relkadam and Roccowithlove have been sighted in the last fortnight.

Dogem by Design is on his second handicap and we've some new headgear on show as the top two in the weights, Crack du Ninian & Where's Hector are first-time wearers of a visor and a hood respectively.

As stated above, we've three course winners (2 at C&D) on show here and we've three winners at 2m2f to 2m4f. We also have four NH winners on soft ground and six with at least one previous Class 5 success, according to Instant Expert...

...which as you might have expected at Class 5 is awash with red! Bolsover Bill and Roccowithlove are the two obvious standouts and warning bells have started to ring about En Meme Temps (going/trip), Relkadam (going/trip, although he won this last year) and Ribeye (class), but it's highly possible that some of these might appear in a better light on place form...

Hmmm, yes, a little but Ribeye's time is up for today, I fear. A win and two places from sixteen career starts doesn't fill me with confidence about his chances on chase debut, so he's now a discard too and if we've now just got the top eight, I have some concerns about McGarry on soft ground with showers forecasted.

I know from looking at Bolsover Bill's recent wins that he likes to set the tempo of the race, but here's how his rivals have approached their last four outings too...

...suggesting that top weight Crack du Ninian might well keep him company up top, whilst Where's Hector and Dogem by Design look like they'll be held up, as might last year's winner, Relkadam who actually raced in mid-division for that race. Our Pace Analyser for this race...

...says that hold-up horses are likely to struggle to win/place and that horses on the sharp end of proceedings fare best of all.

Summary

It's hard to ignore the claims of featured horse Bolsover Bill, isn't it? He's in great form, his yard's in good form, he scores well on Instant Expert and on pace. He's also 2 from 2 under today's jockey and if we return briefly to Instant Expert and look just at chase form...

...he has to be the one, doesn't he? I know he's up 10lbs for a pair of convincing victories, but I think there might be well be a fair bit more to come for this 6 yr old. Nobody's getting rich off his 11/4 early price from Bet365, but I actually thought he might be a bit shorter.

That early market has McGarry at the same price, but a lack of chasing experience and his poor soft ground form make that price a bit skinny in my opinion and I think Roccowithlove might pose a threat. he's 11/2, which isn't long enough for an E/W bet in my opinion, whilst it wouldn't be the biggest surprise ever if Relkadam put another big run in and at 8/1 he could be an E/W possible, especially if your bookie pays four places.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 12/01/23

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Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular tab in the geegeez racecards. The reason? It has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view.

The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all. And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 12.15 Clonmel
  • 2.50 Catterick
  • 3.35 Newcastle
  • 3.55 Catterick

As ever, I do like to look at the extremes of racing and that leads me to the 2.50 Catterick, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 3m6f on heavy ground...

None of these come here off the back of a winning run, but Bushypark and the sole mare in the race, Legend's Ryde, did at least make the frame whilst Burbank, Cyclop & Sam's Adventure all failed to finish. Burbank and legend's Ryde are the only two with a 'recent' win. Burbank and Sam's Adventure both now drop down from Class 2 and the latter now wears a first-time visor, whilst Cyclop's last outing was in a Class 1 handicap.

Bushypark was a runner-up last Saturday after having been pulled up in all four runs in 2022 and he's back out just five days later. That said, all his rivals have raced in the last six weeks. The mare Legend's Ryde is the 'baby' of the field at the age of eight, whilst Cyclops, the sole distance winner is now the ripe old age of 12.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert, so let's look at this field's overall NH form and also just chase stats...

Generally Burbank and Thunderosa haven't gone well in the mud and the latter is probably the weakest runner in the race and hasn't really impressed at in making the frame just once in ten starts over fences. Four of these are Class 3 winners, although it has taken Cyclops thirty races to amass just three wins, but he is also the only distance winner in the field. Only Thunderosa has raced here previously.

Onto chase form...

...which looks a little more promising from a going/class perspective, but no real stand-out candidate. Thunderosa still looks the weakest, as he did when last home of four here on New Year's Day. He was held up in rear that day and never landed a blow in a near-40 length defeat. Those tactics were unusual for a horse who normally races towards the head of affairs as shown on our pace logs...

...and if reverts to his usual tactics, he could well keep Bushypark company in the early stages of a race on a track that hasn't been too kind to hold-up horses in staying chases in the mud...

...but those leading the way have thrived and I suspect this will help Bushypark more than Thunderosa who has yet to prove himself as a stayer.

Summary

The one I initially like here is Legend's Ryde. She ran well at Cheltenham last out and was third of six in a Listed race in November. She likes the mud and gets on really well with jockey Gavin Sheehan and with three wins/two further places from nine over fences, she's a good benchmark for this field.

My doubts about her stem from the fact that she's only gone beyond three miles on four occasions and has never raced further than her 3m2½f win at Fontwell last March. I've had a quick look at the market and I can't back her at 3/1, it's just too short for me with those doubts about the trip.

The other one posing a conundrum is 5/2 favourite Bushypark. He won over hurdles in Feb'21 and then next time out, but over fences nearly ten months later off a mark of 132. He was raised to 137 and toiled, going down by almost 90 lengths at the end of 2021.

He was then pulled up in all four runs last year, but was then a runner-up at Newcastle last week, only headed late on in a 1.5 length defeat. He's unexposed (3 starts inc 1 win) over fences and is 13lbs lower than his last winning mark and if in the same mood as last week, should be the one to beat. 5/2 is a bit skinny, but i think that's down to a lack of real opposition.



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Stat of the Day, 17th August 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Newbury : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Slight lead, narrowly headed halfway, in front again 3f out, headed over 1f out, no extra in 3rd inside final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start, as is usually the case, with the racecard...

This 3 yr old gelding won a similar Class 5, 7f flat handicap two starts and 11 months ago before a 311 day spell on the sidelines. He returned from that long break to finish third over 7.5f at Beverley, when beaten by just a head and a neck in a contest where the write-up says...chased leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and no extra towards finish...

I'd expect him to come on for that run 24 days ago and the slight drop back in trip should also help him see this one out at a track where our report suite suggests that today's trainer and jockey fare well together.

And it's the David O'Meara/Danny Tudhope/Catterick trainer/jockey/course angle that I'll be pursuing today. That recent 50% strike rate is, of course, excellent, but I think we need a few more in our sample size to hang a bet upon, so how about...O'Meara + Tudhope + Catterick + 4/1 & shorter + 2016-now? Which gives us...

from which there has been...

  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 14.97pts (+44%) over trips of 5-7f
  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 12.25pts (+36%) wit 2-4 yr olds
  • 14/28 (50%) for 11.45pts (+40.9%) from July onwards
  • 12/23 (52.2%) for 11.5pts (+50%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.19pts (+18.2%) from horses placed LTO
  • 9/12 (75%) for 19.71pts (+164.2%) in fields of 11-15 runners
  • 8/20 (40%) for 5.4pts (+27%) at Class 5
  • and 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 9.26pts (+115.7%) on good to soft ground...

...and a composite angle from the above? Hmmm, OK, how about 2-4 yr olds racing over 5-7f  for less than £4k from July onwards at 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) and 7.03pts (+63.9% ROI) profit? An angle that also includes a 100% strike rate in fields of 11+ runners (4 from 4), 71.4% from runners placed LTO (5 from 7) and 50% strike rates (2 from 4) at class 5 or on good to soft ground...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!



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