Stat of the Day, 17th August 2020
Saturday's pick was...
5.55 Newbury : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Slight lead, narrowly headed halfway, in front again 3f out, headed over 1f out, no extra in 3rd inside final furlong)
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG
...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...
Why?...
We start, as is usually the case, with the racecard...
This 3 yr old gelding won a similar Class 5, 7f flat handicap two starts and 11 months ago before a 311 day spell on the sidelines. He returned from that long break to finish third over 7.5f at Beverley, when beaten by just a head and a neck in a contest where the write-up says...chased leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and no extra towards finish...
I'd expect him to come on for that run 24 days ago and the slight drop back in trip should also help him see this one out at a track where our report suite suggests that today's trainer and jockey fare well together.
And it's the David O'Meara/Danny Tudhope/Catterick trainer/jockey/course angle that I'll be pursuing today. That recent 50% strike rate is, of course, excellent, but I think we need a few more in our sample size to hang a bet upon, so how about...O'Meara + Tudhope + Catterick + 4/1 & shorter + 2016-now? Which gives us...
from which there has been...
- 16/34 (47.1%) for 14.97pts (+44%) over trips of 5-7f
- 16/34 (47.1%) for 12.25pts (+36%) wit 2-4 yr olds
- 14/28 (50%) for 11.45pts (+40.9%) from July onwards
- 12/23 (52.2%) for 11.5pts (+50%) in races worth less than £4,000
- 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.19pts (+18.2%) from horses placed LTO
- 9/12 (75%) for 19.71pts (+164.2%) in fields of 11-15 runners
- 8/20 (40%) for 5.4pts (+27%) at Class 5
- and 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 9.26pts (+115.7%) on good to soft ground...
...and a composite angle from the above? Hmmm, OK, how about 2-4 yr olds racing over 5-7f for less than £4k from July onwards at 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) and 7.03pts (+63.9% ROI) profit? An angle that also includes a 100% strike rate in fields of 11+ runners (4 from 4), 71.4% from runners placed LTO (5 from 7) and 50% strike rates (2 from 4) at class 5 or on good to soft ground...
...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Catterick
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24
- Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24
- Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24
