Racing Insights, Saturday 21/10/23
Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated these qualifiers for me to consider...
30-day form...
5-year course form...
...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...
- 3.05 Ascot
- 3.35 Newton Abbot
4.08 Market Rasen- 4.21 Limerick
4.45 Market Rasen- 7.30 Wolverhampton
...and I think we'll have a look at Bergerac and the 3.40 Catterick today. It's an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground...
The top two in the weights, Vintage Clarets and Wen Moon, both won last time out and Glorious Angel was a runner-up (in a race we covered here on Insights), but Vintage Clarets win was at this grade, whilst the other two are both up a class, as are Strong Johnson, Never Dark, Copper Knight, Dickieburd and Count D'Orsay!
Manila Scouse and Bergerac did run at Class 2 last time though, but bottom weight Zargun is up two classes despite not winning any of his last 16 outings; Bergerac and Count D'Orsay are winless in eight and nine respectively.
All of these have had at least one run in the last four weeks with most having raced last Friday at York finishing 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th and 10th, whilst Bergerac was withdrawn...
Zargun may well be out of form right now, but he won this race two years ago, making him one of four course and distance winners along with Manila Scouse, Dickieburd and Count D'Orsay, who won this race four years ago. None of the others have won here at Catterick, but all bar Bergerac have won over today's trip; his 'best' form has been over 6f so far and his failures at 5f are highlighted by Instant Expert...
...which suggests that Wen Moon and Never Dark will be much more at home on soft ground than the likes of Manila Scouse and Zargun, whilst most of these have toiled in this grade. Copper Knight is easily the most experienced here and has clocked up 10 wins from his 58 efforts at Class 2, which is a respectable 17.24% SR. Aside from Wen Moon's small number of qualifying runs above, there's not a great deal to shout about here, so let's check the place stats from those races...
...where Wen Moon and Manila Scouse have the best numbers and with no green for place form in any of going, class, course or distance, I'm happy to discount the claims of Bergerac, Never Dark, Copper Knight and Strong Johnson, who come from stalls 4, 7, 8 and 10, so I'm hoping that if there's a draw bias at all, it favours those drawn lowest!
Sadly for me and my reckoning, that's not the case...
...but that doesn't mean we can't still be on the right track. At the end of the day, it's a 5f dash over a straight track and there really shouldn't be massive advantages from a particular stall and it's generally pace that wins the race over the minimum trip and here at Catterick, those 30-odd races above back up my theory...
...and this is backed up by the three best pace/draw combo positions all being taken by horses who led...
...and based on recent performances, this could mean another big run from Glorious Angel. She was in a race we covered last week and was only headed very late on, going down by a neck and looking at her last four runs, I suspect she'll attempt to make all here again...
...which gives us the following heat map...
Summary
From our pace/draw heat map, Glorious Angel looks to have a great chance of at least making the frame and at an early price of 9/1, I'd be inclined to have a small E/W bet on her. She has been the runner-up in three of her last five, but is on a long losing run, so for me Wen Moon and Vintage Claret are the ones to beat.
The latter doesn't look too good on that heat map, but raced prominently last time and beat Wen Moon by a neck in a big-field £30k handicap at York. He's actually 3lbs better off with the runner-up here, so with a similar approach in this race, I'd take the 4/1 Vintage Clarets to beat the 3/1 Wen Moon.
Glorious Angel is the E/W pick, of course, but Count D'Orsay might well be dangerously overpriced at 12/1 and with quite a few firms paying four places...
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
