Tag Archive for: Colin Keane

Keane chasing International Jockeys’ Championship success

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Irish champion jockey Colin Keane is thrilled to be heading back to Hong Kong to take part in the International Jockeys’ Championship at Happy Valley for a third time.

Keane won a sixth domestic title in 2024, his fifth in succession, and backed it up with Group One wins on Babouche for his boss Ger Lyons in the Phoenix Stakes, White Birch in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and he was called up by David Menuisier to stand in for Oisin Murphy when Tamfana won the Sun Chariot Stakes.

He then went out to Del Mar to win on Lyons’ Magnum Force in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and is eagerly looking forward to the competition on December 4.

“I’m delighted to get the invitation to go back again for the international jockeys’ challenge after riding in it twice before Covid,” Keane said.

“It was a very unique experience, with the racetrack in the middle of the city and a great atmosphere and occasion. I rode a winner on my first ride there in the first challenge race in 2018 and was lucky enough to win another leg in 2019.

“It would cap what has been a brilliant year if I could win it this time – I will be hoping I get the luck of the draw with the horses I get in the four races.

“It’s a privilege to get the invite again to round off such a great year, being champion in Ireland again and riding the big winners for the boss, including another Breeders’ Cup success this month.”



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Magnum Force delivers winning performance at Del Mar

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Magnum Force showed a superb turn of foot to take the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Del Mar.

The Ger Lyons-trained colt took a neat line to lose very little ground from stall four in the hands of Colin Keane.

In the straight he was tucked behind the leaders but accelerated to pull away and secure a comfortable success on the line.

Arizona Blaze ran on at the finish to take second for Adrian Murray, making it an Irish-trained first and second, with home runner Governor Sam taking third.

“I knew he’d need some luck in running and he got it,” said Keane.

“His last two runs in England were very good, albeit he was beaten and things didn’t really go to plan.

“We were well placed, he’s a horse with a lot of natural pace and thankfully I chose the right route in the straight.”

Lyons was delighted to see Magnum Force turnaround recent Doncaster form in the process of victory.

He said: “My horse had a late start to the season, he loves fast ground and when he ran at Doncaster, I vowed that if the horses that beat him were going to the Breeders’ Cup then we should.

“Hopefully we will get him home safe and sound, we’ll let him down and the sky will be the limit next year.”

Lyons was eager to praise Keane, who is set to be crowned Irish champion jockey for sixth time on Sunday.

He added: “Colin is the most underrated champion jockey on planet earth and I would like to see him on the big stage more.

“He’s had maybe three rides at the Breeders’ Cup and he’s won two. It’s about the time the world woke up to him.

“It’s fantastic, it’s a huge credit to the horse, a huge credit to my team. Big thanks to my owner, there’s plenty of us guys at home who can do this if we get the horses.

“The secret to training winners is getting the horses, it’s a simple as that. If a clown like me can train a winner at the Breeders’ Cup, anybody can!”

Magnum Force (third right) reversed Doncaster form at Del Mar
Magnum Force (third right) reversed Doncaster form at Del Mar (Mike Egerton/PA)

The Mick Appleby-trained Big Mojo had finished a length and a quarter ahead of Magnum Force in the Flying Childers at Doncaster last time, but was beaten into fourth.

Appleby said: “He had to go very hard to get a position but he battled away. The ground was a bit quick for him.”

Jockey Tom Marquand added: “He really needs six furlongs on a track like that.”

Archie Watson’s Flying Childers winner Aesterius was also in the line up but after racing prominently under James Doyle, he dropped back to finish sixth.

The rider said: “We got into a good position on the turn but he weakened in the straight.”

Aidan O’Brien’s pair of Whistlejacket and Ides Of March finished fifth and seventh respectively, with Shareholder coming home 12th for Karl Burke.



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Breege springs 33-1 surprise in City of York

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John and Sean Quinn’s admirable filly Breege ran out a shock 33-1 winner of the Sky Bet City of York Stakes.

With dual victor Kinross taken out on Saturday morning due to unsuitable ground, a quality field of seven went to post for the seven-furlong Group Two, but that number was further reduced after second-favourite Lake Forest reared in the stalls and had to be withdrawn.

His defection appeared to present Lockinge and Lennox Stakes winner Audience with a gilt-edged opportunity to claim another big-race victory, but the race did not go to script.

Just as he did at Goodwood last month, the 4-7 market leader took a lead off Art Power for much of the way, but this time he was unable to kick clear of his rivals.

Instead, Colin Keane produced Breege to lead inside the final furlong and she stuck to her guns to claim the lion’s share of the £500,000 prize fund by a length and a half from Vafortino.

Shouldvebeenaring was just a head further behind in third, with Audience unable to pick up and having to make do with a slightly disappointing fourth place.

Keane said: “Beforehand we were basically riding to be third and trying to pick up as much prize-money as possible. I thought it would unfold as it did, with Art Power going along and there would be plenty of pace. I thought we’d pick up as much as we could and we got the lot!

“He (Lake Forest) was next door to us and she didn’t bat an eyelid when he nearly came over on top of us, so she obviously has a very good mind. It was a true-run race and when she got between them, she really came alive and quickened away well.”

Trainer Sean Quinn at York
Trainer Sean Quinn at York (Mike Egerton/PA)

Sean Quinn, who trains Breege in partnership with his father, revealed the success was not a total surprise to the camp.

He said: “We worked her on Monday morning and she worked particularly well, John said that was the best he’s ever seen her work. This probably wasn’t the plan at that stage, but he said we’ll take her down the road as there’s a heap of money on offer and we’re going to try to get as much of it as we can.

“She was our first Group winner since we joined the licence (when winning the Group Three Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom in June) and to do that today is pretty special. She’s very important to the yard and it’s important to be competitive on the big days.

“Colin has had three or four rides for us and he won the Boomerang on Irish Champions Weekend on Safe Voyage, so we’ve had a lot of luck with him. He’s fantastic, Jason (Hart) is our stable jockey but unfortunately it didn’t work out today. He went to Goodwood to ride a favourite for us in a Group race and it didn’t pan out, but he’ll be back on her very shortly.

“All the big seven-furlong races (will be considered), she’s not in the Foret but we might have to speak to her owners about supplementing her for it.”



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Babouche completes red-letter day for Ger Lyons at the Curragh

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Hot favourite Babouche was made to pull out all the stops to maintain her unbeaten record in the Jebel Ali Racecourse And Stables Anglesey Stakes at the Curragh.

The daughter of Kodiac had made a huge impression when justifying cramped odds on her introduction at Cork last month and was the 13-8 market leader to complete a quickfire double on the card for owners Juddmonte, trainer Ger Lyons and jockey Colin Keane following Red Letter’s triumph in the opener.

After initially being sandwiched shortly after the start, Babouche was soon travelling strongly as Treasure Isle blazed a trail for the first half of the six-and-a-half-furlong Group Three.

Babouche moved up stylishly as the pacesetter started to falter, but was then challenged by Aidan O’Brien’s Camille Pissarro, who was looking to bounce back from a disappointing effort when favourite for the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot last month.

No quarter was given by either horse or rider in the final furlong, but it was Babouche who stuck her neck out where it mattered, with half a length the winning margin.

Lyons said: “She’s a filly we’ve always liked and has a temperament to die for.

“She’s become more switched off since she ran in Cork. It’s OK winning in Cork like we did, but we learned nothing because she did it all on her own, with the way the race was run.

“She got mashed out of the stalls there, then had to do it the hard way and then got to the front and parked and looked around.”

Babouche now looks set for a step up to Group One level, with her trainer adding: “Maybe she’ll improve and she needs to improve if we’re going to keep going forward. We’ll see how she comes out of it, but at the minute we’re going to take on the boys in the Phoenix Stakes.

“She doesn’t show a whole pile at home since her run. Before her run we knew she was special, but since then she shows you nothing.

“I’ve always said that we’re winning our Listed, Group Threes and Twos, but for the Group Ones you need the temperament. That can be the final thing that you’re missing and she seems to have that.

“Her sister was a seven-furlong/mile filly and I can see her doing that.

“She’s going to be a Guineas filly – I’ll be training her for the Guineas.”

Red Letter was an impressive winner at the Curragh
Red Letter was an impressive winner at the Curragh (Niall Carson/PA)

The aforementioned Red Letter had earlier confirmed debut promise with her dominant victory in the Sycamore Lodge Equine Hospital Irish EBF Fillies Maiden.

The Frankel filly was beaten just a head by the O’Brien-trained Lake Victoria on her racecourse introduction over the course and distance three weeks ago and was an 8-11 favourite to go one better.

Odds-on backers will have had few concerns for the duration of the seven-furlong contest, with Red Letter soon bowling along at the head of affairs and quickening up smartly from the front to score comfortably by just over four lengths from 50-1 shot Indigo Dream.

Ballet Slippers, a first runner out of O’Brien’s seven-time Group One-winning mare Magical, also shaped with plenty of encouragement on her first competitive outing in third.

Of the winner, Lyons said: “It was no more than you probably expected from her after seeing her on debut the first day.

“She stepped forward nicely and you’d expect her to win her maiden that way, so we’re delighted.

“We’ll see how she comes out of it before making any plans. I think it’s just raw ability at the moment, I don’t think she’s a two-year-old and I think it’s all about next year with her.

“We’ll let her tell me what we do with her. I’ll tell Barry (Mahon, owners’ racing manager) what I’m seeing at home and discuss it with the (Abdullah) family about whether we come back for the Moyglare or something like that.

“She’s done a lot quick, we are only in the middle of July. She looked raw going down to the start and it’s pure ability what you are seeing out there.”



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Crystal Black’s future could contain Ebor tilt

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The Sky Bet Ebor is among the potential options for consideration by the Crystal Black team, following his “once in a lifetime” victory at Royal Ascot last week.

The six-year-old lined up in Friday’s Duke of Edinburgh Stakes chasing a fourth consecutive victory for trainer Gerard Keane, with his son and four-time champion jockey Colin in the saddle.

An impressive victory not only sealed a popular family success but also sparked scenes of wild celebration in the Ascot winner’s enclosure – and Keane senior admits he is still coming back down to earth almost a week on.

“It was great to get it, it was just unbelievable,” he said.

“We had a good party in the lads’ hotel that night and they came down here to the local pub last Sunday and we had another good party, so we’ve had a good time of it! It’s a once in a lifetime job probably.

“The horse came out of the race well, he came home that night and he’s in great nick. We won’t put a saddle on him until next Monday.”

Having seen his stable star successfully step up to a mile and a half in Berkshire, Keane does not view a further hike in trip for the £500,000 Ebor over a mile and three-quarters as a major concern, should connections opt for a trip to the Knavesmire in late August.

Crystal Black and Colin Keane in full flight at Royal Ascot
Crystal Black and Colin Keane in full flight at Royal Ascot (David Davies/PA)

He added: “We haven’t really (made any plans), he’ll probably get an entry in the Ebor. He’s gone up 8lb to a mark of 111, so he’ll probably get an entry in the Ebor and we’ll see.

“You’d say he’s more or less finished in handicaps now, although you might have to take a chance in one for a big pot, like the Ebor, otherwise you’re probably looking at a Listed race or a Group Three.

“The other thing is there’s a good bit of interest in him from Australia, so we’ll have to talk about those things.

“The trip wasn’t a problem (at Ascot), the ground was our biggest fear because he’s a big horse at about 17 hands. I wouldn’t want to run him on quick ground all the time, but he went well on it the other day and Colin was very happy with him.”



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Crystal sparkles to give Keane team ‘special’ Ascot success

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Colin Keane reflected on the “most emotional” success of his riding career after delivering Crystal Black to perfection to win the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot for his father Gerard.

Champion jockey for the last four seasons in Ireland, Keane has enjoyed a whole host big-race victories during that period including Classic wins in the Irish 2,000 Guineas on Siskin, the Irish Oaks on Even So and the Irish Derby on Westover – but none more meant to him than this.

Heading to Ascot having won both of his starts this term, Crystal Black was an 11-1 shot for this ultra-competitive mile-and-a-half handicap and while he still had plenty of horses ahead of him heading into the straight, he soon responded to his rider’s urgings to take closer order.

Although the Willie Mullins-trained 7-4 favourite Ethical Diamond at one point looked the likely winner, Crystal Black was not for passing once striking the front, running on to score by two and a quarter lengths with ears pricked from David O’Meara’s Epic Poet. Ziggy made late headway to pip Ethical Diamond for third.

“It’s the most emotional I’ve felt about riding a winner. It’s very special riding one for my father at Royal Ascot, and a great bunch of owners (the Wear A Pink Ribbon Syndicate). They might not get home for a while to be honest, but they’re dead right,” said the jockey.

“He’s improved from run to run and we thought he’d get a mile and a half, the way he was finishing over a mile and a quarter.

“He seems to be a horse that the longer he’s on the bridle, the better he travels, and he can quicken.

“At home he can just win by a neck or a head and has kept on the right side of the handicapper, thankfully. You’d imagine he’d have to move up to Group level now.

“Dad only has a small number of horses, and we’re mainly a breaking and pre-training yard now, so to have a horse like him in the yard is brilliant.”

Colin Keane and Crystal Black return to the winner's enclosure
Colin Keane and Crystal Black return to the winner’s enclosure (John Walton/PA)

Keane senior added: “It’s just unbelievable, I never thought we’d have a horse here. I dreamed of maybe having a Cheltenham horse along the way, I never dreamed we’d have a Royal Ascot horse.

“We got him and early on he gave us plenty of hardship, he was wrong early on, but when he came right he had a great finish to the year and a great autumn.

“He’s just progressed ever since, this year he’s just had a trouble-free run the whole way. He couldn’t run in the Lincoln and looking back it was probably best he couldn’t. I messed up the passport but he’d have needed the run badly.

“He still needed the run first time out and that was five weeks later, so it was maybe the best thing that ever happened.”

On his son, he said: “He’s not too bad, is he? He gave him a great ride, knows the horse inside out, he just lets him creep into the race. It’s all about him finishing and he finishes well.”

Winning co-owner Neville Eager explained how the syndicate came together.

He said: “We had a horse with Willie Mullins called True Self, with a lovely girl called Breda Miley who was always with us, but she’s passed away since. We raise money for cancer, and Colin rode True Self for us.

“I met Colin in Hong Kong. One night, I said to him, just for luck, can you buy us a horse and we’ll go with you again. I’d say, nearly two years to the day, Colin rings me and says I’m going to buy a horse tomorrow I like at the sales. I said go on then, and he organised it.

“We’ve been to Melbourne before with True Self, but I don’t know whether he’ll go back with this horse yet. I haven’t had time to catch my breath.”



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White Birch floors Auguste Rodin for Tattersalls gold at the Curragh

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White Birch continued his brilliant start to the season by claiming a first Group One victory in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh.

Third behind the reopposing Auguste Rodin in the Derby last year, John Joseph Murphy’s grey made a successful start to his four-year-old campaign in the Group Three Alleged Stakes in April before following up over the same course and distance at Group Two level in the Mooresbridge three weeks ago.

Dual Derby hero Auguste Rodin was the marginal favourite at 11-10 as he looked to bounce back from a disappointing run in Dubai, but while he moved menacingly into it in the straight, White Birch (15-8) was going even better in his slipstream in the hands of a motionless Colin Keane.

Once asked to extend, the grey showed smart acceleration to put three lengths between himself and Auguste Rodin, with Crypto Force a further eight lengths behind in third.

“That couldn’t have gone better. We got behind the two we wanted to be behind (early),” said Keane.

“Ryan (Moore, on Auguste Rodin) brought us as far as we could, then we just quickened up well.

“He cantered into it. He has plenty of pace but would have no bother going a bit further.

“He has matured massively from three to four.”

White Birch and Colin Keane with connections after winning the Tattersalls Gold Cup
White Birch and Colin Keane with connections after winning the Tattersalls Gold Cup (Healy Racing/PA)

Paddy Power cut White Birch to 7-1 from 25-1 for the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, while he is 8-1 from 20-1 for the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown.

George Murphy, assistant to his father, said: “We’ve been waiting a long time for one as good as him. He’s a bit more chilled out this year and has progressed from race to race.

“People thought last year when he was a bit slow away from the gates a few times and he was coming from off the pace that he was more of a stayer, but he’s getting to show what he can do now.

“He’s got form on very quick ground as well, so he seems to handle them all. Colin was very good on him, as he always is, and gave him a super ride. He’s a master of his trade.

“We’ll enjoy today and make a plan from here.”

Aidan O’Brien, meanwhile, took plenty of positives from the run of Auguste Rodin and was also quick to praise winning connections.

“I thought he ran very well. The ground went against him and he got into a little bit of a speed wobble coming down off the hill and it took a little bit of time to get back in his rhythm. Obviously John’s horse picked him up well, but we were very happy,” he said.

“He still went out on his shield today and the next time we’ll be ready. We were thinking of the Prince of Wales’s next, but we’ll see what the lads want to do.

“I’m delighted for John and his son George.”



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Wendla makes all for Leopardstown honours

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Ger Lyons’ Wendla landed a Group Three prize at Leopardstown when taking the Al Shira’aa Racing “Mutamakina” Stakes.

The three-year-old is owned and bred by Juddmonte, and her dam, Intercontinental, is a daughter of the great mare Hasili.

Wendla started her season on a good note when winning a Naas maiden, after which she was sixth over seven furlongs in the Priory Belle at Leopardstown in early April.

She returned to the same course and over a mile this time under Colin Keane, starting at odds of 7-1 in a field of seven and making the running from an early stage.

From there she was never passed, pulling away to secure a three-quarter-length victory with Aidan O’Brien’s Buttons, the 6-5 favourite, the runner-up behind her.

“She’s a lovely, honest filly. The ground comes all the same to her, she’s handled heavy and she handled that,” said Lyons.

“She’s a light filly so I didn’t have any doubts she’d handle that.

“I probably had her wrong and Colin had her right. I thought the way the race was run it wasn’t going to suit, she’s pacier than I gave her credit for.

“I had her down as a horse, going forward, that would go further sooner rather than later.

“Colin has her as having more speed than I gave her credit for, thankfully he was right. He was in the right place on her and she answered and did it well. You couldn’t knock the performance.

Wendla after winning the Al Shira’aa Racing ‘Mutamakina’ Stakes during the Derby Trials
Wendla after winning the Al Shira’aa Racing ‘Mutamakina’ Stakes during the Derby Trials (Lorraine O’Sullivan)

“When you get those fillies, you try to win a maiden to tick the first box and then you are looking for black type and winning black type is brilliant.

“I just thought we were going too slow, they were doing 14-seconds fractions and that’s too slow. I was thinking we’re in trouble and that speed is just going to go past us. Thankfully I was wrong about my filly, she’s quicker than I gave her credit for.”

When asked if she could tackle the Irish 1,000 Guineas, Lyons added: “I wouldn’t think so but we’ll talk to Barry and Rory (Mahon, of Juddmonte) and better brains than me will decide that.

“She’s earned the right and the lads can decide that. If she ends up doing what Zarinsk did last year, we’ll be over the moon.

“There are big races here at the end of the year that we can aim for, the mile race (Matron Stakes).”



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Colin Keane claims fifth Irish champion jockey title

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Colin Keane was crowned champion jockey in Ireland for the fourth successive year – and fifth in all – at the Curragh on Sunday.

Keane took a stranglehold on the championship from August onwards and was able to compete over the last few weeks of the season stress-free.

While he did not manage to win a Group One this season, he did win the Group Two Minstrel Stakes on Zarinsk for his boss Ger Lyons.

With Lyons not as prolific this year as in recent times, Keane struck up relationships with the likes of Noel Meade, Willie Mullins and Henry de Bromhead, while he also rode six winners for his father, Gerry.

For the second year running, Keane’s closest challenger was Billy Lee.

He said: “I suppose it was a little bit more enjoyable this year, I was certainly able to relax these last few weeks.

“I got a good lead in August which was a big help and thankfully I was able to win it for a fifth time.

“Unfortunately Ger hasn’t had the firepower that he’s usually had, but thankfully the likes of Noel Meade, my father and Michael O’Callaghan have all chipped in and my agent, Ruaidhri Tierney, has done a great job.

“Zarinsk was a great filly this year, she won her Listed (race), a Group Three and a Group Two and that’s important for a filly like her.

“The highlight would have to be riding a first Royal Ascot winner (Villanova Queen) or riding a winner for my father here on Champions Weekend (Crystal Black) for a great bunch of lads

“Any day you ride a winner, you are enjoying it.

“I’ll keep going from now to Christmas and then take a break in the new year.”

Jamie Powell claimed the leading apprentice title having ridden 28 winners, which put him 13th overall in the jockeys’ championship.

He said: “I’ve received so much support from so many people since I’ve started.

“I didn’t really sit on a racehorse until I was 16 or 17 and didn’t do pony racing. I went to the Racing Academy in Kildare Town and I got going from there and was sent out to Patrick Prendergast and then he joined up with John Oxx.

“I learned plenty in there and riding work with the likes of Niall McCullagh, who has been a big help to me.

Aussie Girl and Jamie Powell were Curragh winners in July
Aussie Girl and Jamie Powell were Curragh winners in July (Brian Lawless/PA)

“I then joined Johnny Murtagh and have been there for two or three years now. He gives me plenty of feedback watching back races and is able to tell me where I’m going wrong.

“The Curragh is right on my doorstep and I’ve gone racing here since I was a kid. It’s been very lucky for me and I’ve won big handicaps here this year on Aussie Girl and Tawaazon, so to be crowned champion apprentice here is great.”

Aidan O’Brien took the trainers’ title for a 26th time, having won the Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes with Auguste Rodin, the Irish 2,000 Guineas with Paddington and the Irish Oaks with Savethelastdance in another stellar campaign.



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Mutasarref keeps up the good work for Lyons in Leopardstown feature

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Mutasarref came home best to provide trainer Ger Lyons with a fourth win in the last five runnings of the Bahrain Turf Club Knockaire Stakes at Leopardstown.

The County Meath handler landed the Listed prize with Psychedelic Funk in 2019, Masen in 2021 and Power Under Me 12 months ago.

With Power Under Me declared a non-runner this time around, 8-1 shot Mutasarref was the stable’s representative and the five-year-old picked up well when the gap came to defeat Honey Girl by a neck in the hands of Colin Keane.

The front-running 7-4 favourite Cairo, making his first appearance since filling the runner-up spot behind esteemed stablemate Paddington in the Irish 2,000 Guineas in May, finished third.

Colin Keane and Ger Lyons at Leopardstown
Colin Keane and Ger Lyons at Leopardstown (Damien Eagers/PA)

“I genuinely thought I was only running him because Eleanora (Kennedy, owner) was over for a do at the weekend,” Lyons said of the winner.

“He’s been on the wane all year. Colin said he’s just a class horse and the ease in the ground helps him as he’s had injuries and it helps his old bones.

“He’s been a very lucky horse for us since we got him. I thought we were on the road to dropping him down the handicap, but that’s undone all that. You don’t mind when they win.

“They went no gallop and it fell into his hands. On his day he’s a good horse.”

Aidan O’Brien and Seamie Heffernan teamed up to land the Thomas’s Of Foxrock “Jim And Kathleen Murphy” Memorial Trigo Stakes with 9-2 chance Boogie Woogie.

Boogie Woogie in the Leopardstown winner's enclosure
Boogie Woogie in the Leopardstown winner’s enclosure (Gary Carson/PA)

The Naas maiden winner had failed to trouble the judge in her last three starts in Group-race company and made the most of having her sights lowered in this Listed event.

The daughter of Dubawi quickened up smartly to take a couple of lengths out of the field halfway up the home straight and had enough in the tank at the finish to repel Sunchart by three-quarters of a length.

Stable representative Chris Armstrong, said: “She’s a filly that has promised a lot all year but things just haven’t gone right for her at times. She’s run some good races in Group races and it’s great to get the Listed win now.

“She’s a filly with a lot of ability. Seamie said she didn’t handle the ground but her class got her through.

“There might be a Group Three or something left for her, but we’ll see how we go.”



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Jockey Profiles: Ireland, Flat

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This is the fourth in my series of articles on jockeys, and this time I am examining the performance of some riders in Ireland, writes Dave Renham.

As with the previous three articles I am analysing the last eight full years of flat racing (2015-2022) but focusing solely on Irish results. For the majority of the number crunching I will be using the Geegeez Query Tool, but I will also use the Profiler tool amongst other things. In all the tables the profits/losses quoted will be to Industry SP, but I will share Betfair SP where appropriate.

The first point to make is that you should not blindly compare Irish jockey strike rates with their UK counterparts. This is because the average field size in Ireland is bigger than it is in the UK. In the past eight seasons, the average number of runners in a UK flat race stands at 9.2; in Ireland this jumps markedly to 11.7. If we compare by year we see that the gap in the last couple of years has increased further:

 

 

Hence strike rates for jockeys racing in Ireland are going to be lower than for jockeys racing in the UK. If we want to compare jockeys across the Irish Sea against each other, then the PRB figure (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) is a better barometer to use.

 

Jockey Performance in All Races

Let us first look at all jockeys that have ridden at least 400 times in the past eight seasons in Ireland. I have included all of them, rather than hand pick those with the highest strike rates. The reason for this is that I do not know that much about some Irish jockeys so I am keen to absorb all the stats I can:

 

 

As we can see there are no jockeys in profit to SP with many heavily in the minus.

Anyone who read my Ryan Moore article will be familiar with his overall stats. Moore is comfortably ahead of the rest with a crazy strike rate, thanks as we know in the main to his partnership with trainer Aidan O’Brien. The next best strike rate is owned by Colin Keane, on 14.83%, which is less than half the figure of Moore! Speaking of Keane, let us dig a little further into his stats:

Colin Keane

Keane is stable jockey to Ger Lyons, a relationship that began in 2014. Keane has been Champion Jockey in Ireland in four of the last six seasons (2017, 2020, 2021, 2022), and in 2021 he had his highest number of wins in a season with 156. Let us look at his record with different trainers (minimum 50 rides), ordered by number of runs:

 

 

There are some strong PRB figures here, with Keane securing a PRB of 0.60 or better with eight different trainers. Naturally, the most rides have been for Lyons, but the O’Callaghan combination completely stands out. In 2022, they teamed up 18 times and nine of those horses ended up in the winner’s enclosure. They have partnered up at 14 different Irish courses and had winners at ten of them! Three of the courses where they have not had a winner have been at courses where Keane has ridden for O’Callaghan just once.

Two trainers perhaps to avoid are Martin and Mc Court – both have relatively poor figures in comparison to the average, though are still at least 50% of rivals beaten together.

For Ger Lyons, Keane is close to one win in five which is excellent. Here is a graph of their trainer/jockey combo in terms of yearly strike rate – looking at both win strike rate and each way strike rate:

 

 

There were slight dips in 2018 and 2022, but generally quite consistent figures. It should be noted that 2023 started very poorly, so this is something we need to keep our eye on. Things have improved in June and hopefully the pairing are back to normal service resumed now.

Here are three of the most potent Keane/Lyons stats:

  1. 2yo horses have done extremely well with 177 wins from 759 runners (SR 23.3%). To SP, returns have shown a small 3p in the £ loss. To BSP though a profit of £65.91 would have been made equating to returns of over 8p in the £.
  2. Clear favourites have won 233 races from 572 races (SR 40.7%) for a BSP profit of £49.66 (ROI +8.7%).
  3. Horses making their debut have an outstanding record. Of the 333 debutants, 71 have won (SR 21.3%) for a BSP profit of £158.33 (ROI +47.6%). Profits to SP were smaller but still returned just under 20p in the £.

Moving back to looking at Keane’s overall record again, it is time to consider some of his run style data. Geegeez members will know I am a big fan of looking at favourite run style data as this eliminates any potential selection bias regarding ‘good horses at the front, bad ones at the back’. Here are the relative win strike rates for Keane horses that have started as the market leader in terms of the four main run styles:

 

 

No surprises here with front running favourites doing clearly best. This is an even stronger bias than we normally see with hold up favourites scoring less than one win in every four. Front runners, meanwhile, would have secured a profit of around 24p in the £ to SP assuming our crystal ball could have accurately predicted that they would all go forward as well as being favourite. This profit would jump to 30p in the £ if backing them all to BSP.

 

Seamie Heffernan

Heffernan has some interesting run style stats when we focus on shorter distance races of 5f to 7f. Below are his strike rates both from a win and each way perspective:

 

 

As can be seen, Heffernan’s record on front runners from both a win and placed viewpoint is top notch. The figures for hold up horses in these shorter distance races are very weak – fewer than one in twenty winning, fewer than one in eight placing.

Heffernan has ridden 103 front runners in these 5-7f races for trainer Aidan O’Brien and has won on 38 of them (SR 36.9%). For the same trainer over the same distance spread, we see hold up horses claiming just 12 wins from 153 (SR 7.8%). Of the 153, 77 came from the top three in the betting! Now I appreciate I probably have the largest and noisiest ‘drum’ when it comes to run style stats in the whole of the racing world but when the numbers look like this, I just have to make you aware.

 

Horses from top three in the betting, by jockey

As the main table indicated, most jockeys have modest profit records at best when looking at their rides as a whole. Let’s look at how they have performed in terms of when they are riding a fancied runner – specifically, a horse in the top three in the betting. Here are the jockeys who have secured the best strike rates (minimum 100 runners):

 

 

Moore tops the list once more; Keane is in 5th, while three jockeys have managed to secure a profit to SP, namely Shane B Kelly, Ben Coen and Connor King. The average A/E figure for all Irish riders on horses from the top three in the betting is 0.88, so a few of them are nicely above this figure.

A look now at the jockeys with the lowest strike rates (below 16%) with the same group of fancied horses:

 

 

These jockeys are probably ones to be wary of even if riding a horse that heads, or is near the head of, the market. They have produced some hefty losses as a group.

 

Jockeys on front running favourites

Earlier we saw that Colin Keane had an excellent record on favourites that took the lead early. Here are the jockeys with the highest strike rates with such runners, of which Keane is one of them:

 

 

Absolutely exceptional figures for Moore; in the previous article on Ryan I noted his excellent record on front running favourites when combining UK and Irish stats. To that we can now add that his Irish front running win stats are 15% higher than his UK ones. I also mentioned in that piece that Moore does not go to the front early as often as he should – this cements my feeling for time immemorial. Of course, many of Aidan O’Brien’s horses are steadily away which makes getting to the front more difficult.

 

Jockey Performance, by Racecourse

For this section I decided I would look for any big positives or negatives at the Irish courses as regards to jockeys. Here are my findings:

Ballinrobe – Shane Foley has the highest strike rate at the course (19.3%) thanks to 11 wins from 57; Rory Cleary is 0 from 41. To be fair Cleary has not had many good chances at the course;

Bellewstown – Declan McDonogh has a 20% win rate at the course (11 from 55) and provided a BSP profit of £32.79 (ROI +59.6%); he has a decent placed record too. Dylan Browne McMonagle has managed just two successes from 52 including just one from 22 with horses 7/1 or shorter;

Cork – Billy Lee has ridden 45 winners at the track in the past eight seasons (Colin Keane also has won 45) from 245 rides. He has secured strike rates above 20% at Cork in three of the past five seasons, and in six of the eight seasons you would have made a profit backing his runners to BSP. When teaming up with trainer Paddy Twomey, Lee has ridden 13 winners from just 33 runners which equates to a strike rate of 39.4%.

Curragh – Ryan Moore has a good record here with 109 winners from 393 rides (SR 27.7%). To BSP his mounts have virtually broken even. His record in Group 3 contests is eye catching – 29 wins from 59 (SR 49.2%) for a BSP profit of £48.07 (ROI +81.5%). Contrast Moore with the Curragh stats for Connor Hoban who has managed just two wins from 197 runners, though again opportunity is obviously not created equally for the two riders.

Dundalk – the course that stages by far the most Irish racing due to it being an all-weather track. Colin Keane seems to ride the track as well as any – he has had 1210 rides with 198 successes (SR 16.4%). A BSP profit of £81.56 (ROI +6.7%) would have been achieved backing all his rides blind. His record is quite consistent when analysing the data by year. Keane’s strike rate exceeds 20% when riding for his boss Ger Lyons and when riding for Noel Meade.

Fairyhouse – Rory Cleary is 0 from 101 at the track in the study period.

Killarney – Declan McDonogh is head and shoulders above the rest here with 26 wins from 104 rides (SR 25%) for a BSP profit of £170.64 (ROI +164.1%).

Leopardstown – Ryan Moore has 42 victories here and is just half a percentage off hitting a 30% win strike rate. You would have lost 11p in the £ however, even to BSP.

Naas – it is Ryan Moore again who has by far the best strike rate at 35.8% (29 wins from 81) for a 4p in the £ BSP return. Colin Keane and Seamie Heffernan are the only other two jockeys above the 15% mark.

Navan – Moore is a rare visitor here but has an impressive 13 from 31.

Tipperary – Billy Lee has the best record here – 39 wins from 214 (SR 18.2%) for a BSP profit of £72.48 (ROI +33.9%).

 

MAIN TAKEWAYS

Let me summarise the key findings:

  1. Irish races have bigger field sizes so we need to appreciate that when we compare Irish strike rates with UK ones;
  2. Ryan Moore has a 3 in 10 strike rate in all races. He has a fantastic record on front running favourites. He has a decent record at several tracks but take note whenever he makes a trip to Navan;
  3. Colin Keane has a very good record on debutants when riding for Ger Lyons. His ‘all runners’ record is outstanding for Michael O'Callaghan (though steadier so far in 2023). He also rides Dundalk as well as anyone and has an excellent strike rate on front running favourites;
  4. Shane B Kelly, Ben Coen and Connor King has proved profitable to follow when riding a fancied horse (first three in the betting);
  5. Seamie Heffernan rides from the front exceptionally well in sprint races (5f to 7f). His record over the same distances on hold up horses is very poor;
  6. Billy Lee has good records at both Cork and Tipperary – each was highly profitable during the review period;
  7. Declan McDonogh is a jockey to follow at Killarney. His record is far superior to the rest.

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This article has been very interesting to me to research because I personally rarely bet in Irish races; but during the research I’ve found a number of avenues to attack the flat racing puzzle there. I hope the findings have been interesting for you, too.

- DR



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Villanova Queen rules for Keane and Harrington in Kensington Palace

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Colin Keane got off the mark at Royal Ascot as Villanova Queen swooped to land the Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap.

A winner at the big summer showpiece had so far eluded the Classic-winning rider – who is the reigning champion jockey in Ireland. But he was at his very best as he guided Jessica Harrington’s four-year-old to success.

In a typically competitive running of the one-mile handicap, there were plenty in with chances as the 19-strong field rounded the turn for home, with Frankie Dettori’s mount Tamarama looking a real player.

However, the challenge of the Ralph Beckett-trained filly soon petered out and it was left to Villanova Queen to down Daniel and Claire Kubler’s Don’t Tell Claire in the closing stages, with Tarrabb (third) and the Joseph O’Brien-trained pair of Adelaise and Yerwanthere finishing off strongly to finish fourth and fifth.

Harrington’s daughter and assistant, Kate, said: “That was exciting, I thought she had a good chance dropping back from Group and Listed company into a handicap. Albeit her run the last day, if you go back and look at it, she didn’t get the clearest of runs and the time before that the ground was a bit soft in Leopardstown.

“It’s a real credit to the owners, it’s taken a while to get this filly back to what we knew she was before the Irish Guineas last year where she picked up a bit of an injury. It’s just great to her back and show that faith in her, she had a very good run last year behind Homeless Songs in the Guineas trial and we knew this was in her. It’s great now she’s back on track and I’d say onwards and upwards for the rest of the season.”

She added: “Mum’s at Nicky’s (Henderson). She had the sale on Monday and was here yesterday so she’s just taken one day off, she’s back for the next few days. She’ll be celebrating, she’ll have the champagne on ice. There’ll be nothing left!”

Of the runner-up, a proud Claire Kubler said: “It was an incredible run from her, she’s an absolute superstar and we all love her to bits. I thought she might win two out. Then she even got back up to be second as she looked like she might be swallowed up.

“She seems to run well at all the big tracks which is really fortunate, it makes our life easy. It’s back to the drawing board and revisit the options.”



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