Jockey Profiles: Ireland, Flat geegeez.co.uk

This is the fourth in my series of articles on jockeys, and this time I am examining the performance of some riders in Ireland, writes Dave Renham.

As with the previous three articles I am analysing the last eight full years of flat racing (2015-2022) but focusing solely on Irish results. For the majority of the number crunching I will be using the Geegeez Query Tool, but I will also use the Profiler tool amongst other things. In all the tables the profits/losses quoted will be to Industry SP, but I will share Betfair SP where appropriate.

Contents

The first point to make is that you should not blindly compare Irish jockey strike rates with their UK counterparts. This is because the average field size in Ireland is bigger than it is in the UK. In the past eight seasons, the average number of runners in a UK flat race stands at 9.2; in Ireland this jumps markedly to 11.7. If we compare by year we see that the gap in the last couple of years has increased further:

Hence strike rates for jockeys racing in Ireland are going to be lower than for jockeys racing in the UK. If we want to compare jockeys across the Irish Sea against each other, then the PRB figure (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) is a better barometer to use.

Jockey Performance in All Races

Let us first look at all jockeys that have ridden at least 400 times in the past eight seasons in Ireland. I have included all of them, rather than hand pick those with the highest strike rates. The reason for this is that I do not know that much about some Irish jockeys so I am keen to absorb all the stats I can:

As we can see there are no jockeys in profit to SP with many heavily in the minus.

Anyone who read my Ryan Moore article will be familiar with his overall stats. Moore is comfortably ahead of the rest with a crazy strike rate, thanks as we know in the main to his partnership with trainer Aidan O’Brien. The next best strike rate is owned by Colin Keane, on 14.83%, which is less than half the figure of Moore! Speaking of Keane, let us dig a little further into his stats:

Colin Keane

Keane is stable jockey to Ger Lyons, a relationship that began in 2014. Keane has been Champion Jockey in Ireland in four of the last six seasons (2017, 2020, 2021, 2022), and in 2021 he had his highest number of wins in a season with 156. Let us look at his record with different trainers (minimum 50 rides), ordered by number of runs:

There are some strong PRB figures here, with Keane securing a PRB of 0.60 or better with eight different trainers. Naturally, the most rides have been for Lyons, but the O’Callaghan combination completely stands out. In 2022, they teamed up 18 times and nine of those horses ended up in the winner’s enclosure. They have partnered up at 14 different Irish courses and had winners at ten of them! Three of the courses where they have not had a winner have been at courses where Keane has ridden for O’Callaghan just once.

Two trainers perhaps to avoid are Martin and Mc Court – both have relatively poor figures in comparison to the average, though are still at least 50% of rivals beaten together.

For Ger Lyons, Keane is close to one win in five which is excellent. Here is a graph of their trainer/jockey combo in terms of yearly strike rate – looking at both win strike rate and each way strike rate:

There were slight dips in 2018 and 2022, but generally quite consistent figures. It should be noted that 2023 started very poorly, so this is something we need to keep our eye on. Things have improved in June and hopefully the pairing are back to normal service resumed now.

Here are three of the most potent Keane/Lyons stats:

2yo horses have done extremely well with 177 wins from 759 runners (SR 23.3%). To SP, returns have shown a small 3p in the £ loss. To BSP though a profit of £65.91 would have been made equating to returns of over 8p in the £.
Clear favourites have won 233 races from 572 races (SR 40.7%) for a BSP profit of £49.66 (ROI +8.7%).
Horses making their debut have an outstanding record. Of the 333 debutants, 71 have won (SR 21.3%) for a BSP profit of £158.33 (ROI +47.6%). Profits to SP were smaller but still returned just under 20p in the £.

Moving back to looking at Keane’s overall record again, it is time to consider some of his run style data. Geegeez members will know I am a big fan of looking at favourite run style data as this eliminates any potential selection bias regarding ‘good horses at the front, bad ones at the back’. Here are the relative win strike rates for Keane horses that have started as the market leader in terms of the four main run styles:

No surprises here with front running favourites doing clearly best. This is an even stronger bias than we normally see with hold up favourites scoring less than one win in every four. Front runners, meanwhile, would have secured a profit of around 24p in the £ to SP assuming our crystal ball could have accurately predicted that they would all go forward as well as being favourite. This profit would jump to 30p in the £ if backing them all to BSP.

Seamie Heffernan

Heffernan has some interesting run style stats when we focus on shorter distance races of 5f to 7f. Below are his strike rates both from a win and each way perspective:

As can be seen, Heffernan’s record on front runners from both a win and placed viewpoint is top notch. The figures for hold up horses in these shorter distance races are very weak – fewer than one in twenty winning, fewer than one in eight placing.

Heffernan has ridden 103 front runners in these 5-7f races for trainer Aidan O’Brien and has won on 38 of them (SR 36.9%). For the same trainer over the same distance spread, we see hold up horses claiming just 12 wins from 153 (SR 7.8%). Of the 153, 77 came from the top three in the betting! Now I appreciate I probably have the largest and noisiest ‘drum’ when it comes to run style stats in the whole of the racing world but when the numbers look like this, I just have to make you aware.

Horses from top three in the betting, by jockey

As the main table indicated, most jockeys have modest profit records at best when looking at their rides as a whole. Let’s look at how they have performed in terms of when they are riding a fancied runner – specifically, a horse in the top three in the betting. Here are the jockeys who have secured the best strike rates (minimum 100 runners):

Moore tops the list once more; Keane is in 5^th, while three jockeys have managed to secure a profit to SP, namely Shane B Kelly, Ben Coen and Connor King. The average A/E figure for all Irish riders on horses from the top three in the betting is 0.88, so a few of them are nicely above this figure.

A look now at the jockeys with the lowest strike rates (below 16%) with the same group of fancied horses:

These jockeys are probably ones to be wary of even if riding a horse that heads, or is near the head of, the market. They have produced some hefty losses as a group.

Jockeys on front running favourites

Earlier we saw that Colin Keane had an excellent record on favourites that took the lead early. Here are the jockeys with the highest strike rates with such runners, of which Keane is one of them:

Absolutely exceptional figures for Moore; in the previous article on Ryan I noted his excellent record on front running favourites when combining UK and Irish stats. To that we can now add that his Irish front running win stats are 15% higher than his UK ones. I also mentioned in that piece that Moore does not go to the front early as often as he should – this cements my feeling for time immemorial. Of course, many of Aidan O’Brien’s horses are steadily away which makes getting to the front more difficult.

Jockey Performance, by Racecourse

For this section I decided I would look for any big positives or negatives at the Irish courses as regards to jockeys. Here are my findings:

Ballinrobe – Shane Foley has the highest strike rate at the course (19.3%) thanks to 11 wins from 57; Rory Cleary is 0 from 41. To be fair Cleary has not had many good chances at the course;

Bellewstown – Declan McDonogh has a 20% win rate at the course (11 from 55) and provided a BSP profit of £32.79 (ROI +59.6%); he has a decent placed record too. Dylan Browne McMonagle has managed just two successes from 52 including just one from 22 with horses 7/1 or shorter;

Cork – Billy Lee has ridden 45 winners at the track in the past eight seasons (Colin Keane also has won 45) from 245 rides. He has secured strike rates above 20% at Cork in three of the past five seasons, and in six of the eight seasons you would have made a profit backing his runners to BSP. When teaming up with trainer Paddy Twomey, Lee has ridden 13 winners from just 33 runners which equates to a strike rate of 39.4%.

Curragh – Ryan Moore has a good record here with 109 winners from 393 rides (SR 27.7%). To BSP his mounts have virtually broken even. His record in Group 3 contests is eye catching – 29 wins from 59 (SR 49.2%) for a BSP profit of £48.07 (ROI +81.5%). Contrast Moore with the Curragh stats for Connor Hoban who has managed just two wins from 197 runners, though again opportunity is obviously not created equally for the two riders.

Dundalk – the course that stages by far the most Irish racing due to it being an all-weather track. Colin Keane seems to ride the track as well as any – he has had 1210 rides with 198 successes (SR 16.4%). A BSP profit of £81.56 (ROI +6.7%) would have been achieved backing all his rides blind. His record is quite consistent when analysing the data by year. Keane’s strike rate exceeds 20% when riding for his boss Ger Lyons and when riding for Noel Meade.

Fairyhouse – Rory Cleary is 0 from 101 at the track in the study period.

Killarney – Declan McDonogh is head and shoulders above the rest here with 26 wins from 104 rides (SR 25%) for a BSP profit of £170.64 (ROI +164.1%).

Leopardstown – Ryan Moore has 42 victories here and is just half a percentage off hitting a 30% win strike rate. You would have lost 11p in the £ however, even to BSP.

Naas – it is Ryan Moore again who has by far the best strike rate at 35.8% (29 wins from 81) for a 4p in the £ BSP return. Colin Keane and Seamie Heffernan are the only other two jockeys above the 15% mark.

Navan – Moore is a rare visitor here but has an impressive 13 from 31.

Tipperary – Billy Lee has the best record here – 39 wins from 214 (SR 18.2%) for a BSP profit of £72.48 (ROI +33.9%).

MAIN TAKEWAYS

Let me summarise the key findings:

Irish races have bigger field sizes so we need to appreciate that when we compare Irish strike rates with UK ones;
Ryan Moore has a 3 in 10 strike rate in all races. He has a fantastic record on front running favourites. He has a decent record at several tracks but take note whenever he makes a trip to Navan;
Colin Keane has a very good record on debutants when riding for Ger Lyons. His ‘all runners’ record is outstanding for Michael O'Callaghan (though steadier so far in 2023). He also rides Dundalk as well as anyone and has an excellent strike rate on front running favourites;
Shane B Kelly, Ben Coen and Connor King has proved profitable to follow when riding a fancied horse (first three in the betting);
Seamie Heffernan rides from the front exceptionally well in sprint races (5f to 7f). His record over the same distances on hold up horses is very poor;
Billy Lee has good records at both Cork and Tipperary – each was highly profitable during the review period;
Declan McDonogh is a jockey to follow at Killarney. His record is far superior to the rest.

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This article has been very interesting to me to research because I personally rarely bet in Irish races; but during the research I’ve found a number of avenues to attack the flat racing puzzle there. I hope the findings have been interesting for you, too.

- DR

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